Canelo vs. Saunders: prefight analysis and betting prediction

 Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (55-1-2 37 KOs) vs. Billy Jo Saunders (30-0, 14 KOs)

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Date: May 8, 2021
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World, WBA World, and WBO World Super Middleweight titles
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (BetAnySports): Alvarez: -725, Saunders: +550  (5/7/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine super middleweight champion, Saunders: #4 ranked super middleweight
Style: Alvaraez: Orthodox, Saunders: Southpaw

Why you should watch this fight

Canelo vs. Billie Joe Saunders will be the biggest fight of the year to date in front of what is widely anticipated to be a full-capacity crowd of well over 60,000 at AT&T Stadium in the Dallas, TX area - a crowd that would be the largest in the United States to attend a sporting event since COVID-mandated capacity limitations on crowds began in early 2020. Canelo vs Saunders is the biggest boxing event currently on the boxing calendar; at over 60,000 tickets already sold, the fight has already amassed sales that exceed the previous record for a Canelo boxing event - 51,420 for Canelo's 2016 WBO junior middleweight title fight vs. then undefeated UK champion Liam Smith.   

 
Canelo - considered by many to be the #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport and biggest boxing star on the planet - is looking to unify his WBC and WBA super middleweight titles vs. undefeated WBO super middleweight champion Billie Joe Saunders in what could be his toughest fight since his rematch with then #1 pound-for-pound and undefeated Gennady Golovkin in 2018. Saunders is a slick, elusive southpaw who, while oft-criticized for fighting down to his level of opponents, could give the heavy betting favorite Canelo one of the toughest matchups of his certain future first ballot hall-of-fame career. As a junior middleweight (154 lbs), Canelo had trouble with other elite, mobile southpaws with a stiff jab - then undefeated WBA super middleweight champion Austin Trout in 2013 and Erislandy Lara in 2014 in fights many thought Trout and Lara won. Saunders provides Canelo's first test vs. a mobile, defensively responsible southpaw since those fights. vs. Trout and Lara (and provides that test as a bigger man two weight classes higher than those previous fights at 154 lbs).  

Saunders comes into Saturday night's fight as the betting underdog for the first time in his career in what will be by far the biggest fight of his career. Will he rise to the occasion (as he's actually been prone to do when facing his toughest opponents) or will we see yet another flat performance (as we've actually seen more often than not vs. even B- and C-level opponents)?

The winner of Saturday night's fight will be the unified WBC, WBA, and WBO super middleweight champion of the world and is set up nicely to challenge undefeated IBF super middleweight champion Caleb Plant later this year to become the first undisputed super middleweight champion in boxing history and first undisputed boxing champion at any weight since Terence Crawford became undisputed light welterweight (140 lbs) champion back in 2017. 

Prefight Analysis

Seems like nearly all the signs in this matchup point to an easy victory for Canelo. 

Still firmly in the prime of his career, Canelo is brimming with confidence as the #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the world, while Saunders is looking to finally attain the respect that's seemingly eluded him his entire career of being one of the elite boxers in the world. 

Amazingly, Canelo seems even now to still be improving after each and every fight, while Saunders has slid by with lackluster performances in the majority of his recent fights.  

Outside of future first ballot hall-of-famer and all-time great Manny Pacquiao, Canelo has the most impressive resume of any active boxer; Saunders' resume, on the other hand, is littered with domestic British-level contenders and other B- and C-level fighters. (Saunders arguably doesn't have a single A-level fighter on his resume.)

Canelo is the "A" side of this matchup, perhaps the biggest draw in the sport (and biggest draw of the post-Mayweather/Pacquiao generation) - a wildly popular fighter with a fan-friendly style facing a relatively unpopular fighter in Saunders notorious for controversial, distasteful behavior outside the ring and uninspired, snoozer performances inside.

Canelo will be fighting in front of a full-capacity crowd in Dallas, Texas where the overwhelming majority of the crowd will be there to root him on. Texas also happens to be a state notorious for partial scorecards in favor of the "A" side fighter. (Though Canelo has seemingly been the beneficiary of favorable judging regardless of fight location.) 

And of course, Canelo just appears to be the more skilled, experienced, dedicated fighter in this matchup with a huge advantage in punching power. Canelo is expected by most boxing pundits to win this fight and I think he probably does get the win.  

But, as a +550 underdog  (translating to being given by oddsmakers just a 15.4% chance to win this fight), I see a little bit of value in taking Saunders to win. Although Saunders' resume is a bit lacking, he is an undefeated, two-division world champion with elite skills (particularly on the defensive end), great foot and upper body movement, and a consistently effective jab. As much as Canelo has improved in recent years, he hasn't fought a slick, elusive southpaw who can move and jab like Saunders since his close (and for some controversial) decision losses to Lara and Trout several years ago. 

Canelo will always be a somewhat flat-footed fighter, which I think Saunders has the skill to exploit for large stretches of Saturday's fight with constant, responsible movement and timely counterpunching from his southpaw stance.

Note that, while he was certainly in trouble in multiple spots late in the fight, Saunders' countryman Callum Smith was able to last the distance just a few months ago in a unanimous decision loss to Canelo. Saunders doesn't have the size or punching power of Smith, but he is much better defensively - including being much more elusive and trickier than the often predictable and straightforward Smith.

Even with his fast hand speed and elite counterpunching ability, I think the slower-footed Canelo will have trouble - particularly in the early rounds of the fight - finding and adjusting to Saunders' movement and overall deceptive, awkward style. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Saunders outbox Canelo in several rounds and fully expect Saunders - who's never been knocked out or even knocked down in his professional career - to last the full 12 rounds vs. a relatively low-volume, plodding counterpuncher in Canelo. Yes, Canelo's counterpunching is timely, accurate, and packed with power that could stop Saunders at any point in the fight. But I think Saunders is the best defensive fighter Canelo has fought since his split decision victory vs. Lara and think Saunders will be mostly successful eluding Canelo's power and the traps he often sets for his opponents.   


In any case, this will be the first fight (and sporting event overall) that I've attended since the pandemic began over a year ago so definitely looking forward to it!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Fight to go the distance (bet to WIN .65 unit      

2) Saunders to win (bet to RISK .15 unit)

Canelo vs. Rocky Fielding: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

Follow @mouzonebrother

Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (50-1-2 34 KOs) vs. Rocky Fielding (27-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 15, 2018
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBA (Regular) World Super middleweight title
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line: Alvarez: -1600, Fielding: +1050 (5 Dimes, 12/14/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #3 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion [Alvarez is not ranked at super middleweight], Fielding: #9 ranked super middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Fielding: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

On American soil, Canelo Alvarez is (by far) the top PPV attraction in boxing today, with his last three fights over the past year and a half - his two most recent vs. Gennady Golovkin and another in May 2017 vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. - each selling over 1 million PPV buys. (Canelo's fights vs. Golovkin and Chavez Jr. had the highest PPV buy rates for boxing matches not involving Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson in 2002.)

But this past October, Canelo (supported by his promoter - the Oscar De La Hoya-backed Golden Boy Promotions) exited the traditional PPV model - which reportedly earned him well over $20 million for each of the aforementioned fights - to sign a 5-year, 11-fight contract worth at least $365 million with sports streaming service DAZN, the largest contract for a single athlete in sports history. Canelo's fight this Saturday vs. WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding will be Canelo's first fight since signing that contract and will be the first PPV-level fight DAZN has ever produced in the United States.

Right now, Canelo is on top of the boxing world. He's arguably the most popular fighter in the sport. He's coming off of the most high profile, biggest fight of the year and what was by far the biggest win of his career in his majority decision upset victory over at-the-time undefeated and Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound-ranked unified middleweight champion Golovkin - a fight in which Canelo secured his status as a Mexican boxing legend and future first ballot hall-of-famer. Although the scoring of the fight was highly controversial - most observers felt the fight was either a draw or that Canelo lost a close decision - Canelo's impressive performance largely cooled previous rampant suspicions of illegal performance-enhancing drug use by the Mexican fighter as he tested clean numerous times in the days and weeks leading up to the fight.

At just 28 years old, Canelo is still in the middle of his prime and has arguably still not yet even reached his peak as - including even both fights vs. Golovkin -  Canelo has improved with each fight since his lone loss in 2013 to Floyd Mayweather Jr. and is still seemingly getting better. Canelo is currently the Ring Magazine #3 ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world but on Saturday night will make his claim as #1 as he moves up to super middleweight to fight at 168 lbs for the first time in his career in an attempt to become the fifth Mexican fighter win a major world title in at least 3 weight divisions (Julio Cesar Chavez Sr., Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Jorge Arce).

Canelo will be making his debut on DAZN this Saturday night at Madison Square Garden vs. current WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding. Rocky is a British fighter who will be making his first defense of his super middleweight title after upsetting formerly undefeated champion Tyron Zeuge by 5th-round TKO in Zeuge's home country of Germany this past July. (Rocky entered the fight vs. Zeuge at as high as a 5-1 underdog.)

Rocky lacks experience, having not fought many top-level boxers other than Callum Smith - who he lost to in 2015 by 1st-round TKO. But since the loss to Smith - the only loss of his career - Rocky has been on a 3-year, 6-fight winning streak which included the title win over Zeuge and a win over well-respected British fighter John Ryder. Rocky, who has fought multiple times in his career as high as light heavyweight (178 lbs), has a 4.5" reach advantage over Canelo and is also expected to come into Saturday night's fight with a considerable size advantage.

Canelo vs. Rocky will be Canelo's first fight in New York City (and on the entire East Coast after several fights in the U.S. in Las Vegas, Texas, and Los Angeles) and will be Rocky's first fight outside of Europe (and only his second fight outside of his home country of England).

It's worth noting that Saturday night's fight is for the WBA "Regular" super middleweight championship. The WBA "Super" super middleweight championship is currently held by Callum Smith (who - as noted above - beat Fielding in 2015 by 1st-round TKO). Smith beat George Groves (by 7th-round KO) this past September in the World Boxing Super Series final to win the "Super" version of the WBA super middleweight championship.

Prefight Analysis

As an overwhelming (1-16) favorite who just two months ago signed the richest contract in the history of sports, it should be no surprise that I'm going with Canelo to win Saturday night's fight (and win convincingly).

But Rocky could make this fight tougher than expected. As a natural super middleweight who's even spent some of his career as a light heavyweight, Rocky will come into this fight with an advantage in size combined with respectable enough power to make things tough for Canelo, particularly in the early rounds. (With a 52% TKO/KO percentage, Rocky has knocked out most of the opponents he's faced - all of whom were bigger than Canelo in terms of size.) Rocky has above average combination punching skills and won't be afraid to trade punches with a smaller Canelo. For a super middleweight, Rocky moves well and has the ability to box while backing up, which should open up counterpunching opportunities when Canelo comes forward. Rocky will also come into Saturday's fight with a significant (4.5") reach advantage which - if combined with effective enough movement - could stymie Canelo's aggression.

Note that this is the 3rd consecutive week where the underdog in a high-profile fight will come into the ring with a size, height (Rocky is listed at 6'1" compared to Canelo at 5'8"), and reach advantage, complimented with an ability to move well. (Jose Pedraza last week vs. Vasyl Lomachenko and Tyson Fury the week before that vs. Deontay Wilder.) These qualities enabled the underdog in each of these fights to go the 12-round distance despite a loss by knockout being regarded as the most likely outcome.

Although limited athletically, Rocky has a versatile skill set and the fact is he did just a few months ago beat a heavily favored, undefeated world champion in that champion's home country to win his first title. Saturday night will be (by far) the biggest fight of Rocky's career and possibly even the most important night of his whole life - there is little question he will come to fight and lay it all on the line. Last year, Canelo looked impressive at a 164.5 lb cachet in winning a wide unanimous decision victory vs. a more talented fighter than Rocky in Chavez Jr. (none of the three judges even gave Chavez Jr. a single round). But Rocky is a bigger, tougher, more aggressive fighter than Chavez Jr. and will almost certainly put forth a greater effort than Chavez Jr. did. It shouldn't be much of a surprise at all if Rocky's size and reach in particular pose a much bigger problem than Canelo - who has fought as small as 140 lbs (super lightweight) early on in his career - ever anticipated.

But at the end of the day, Rocky I think lacks the athleticism and knockout power of elite super middleweights like Callum Smith and Gilberto Ramirez to compete with Canelo over 12 rounds. There's too much of a skill and hand speed discrepancy here - Rocky is the bigger fighter but I see Canelo wearing Rocky down and picking him apart with quick, accurate punch combinations in a similar fashion to how he picked apart Chavez Jr., who was bigger and had a better chin than Rocky. Rocky will throw more punches than Chavez Jr. did, but I only see that making Rocky - who has a habit of keeping his hands down after throwing punch combinations - even more susceptible to clean counterpunching.

Although only 28 years old, Canelo has the advantage of a wealth of experience vs. elite opponents and has fought against just about every style of fighter possible. Rocky is versatile, but is a straightforward,  British domestic-level boxer lacking the elite-level skills of fighters like Erislandy Lara, Mayweather, and Golovkin that have given Canelo problems in previous fights.

Rocky doesn't have anything that Canelo hasn't already seen; his size, reach, and movement could be a challenge for Canelo in the early rounds but his lack of athleticism, speed, and real knockout power should make it not too difficult for Canelo to adjust and figure out the timing of the British champion both offensively and defensively.

I see Canelo being somewhat cautious and patient early vs. a bigger super middleweight, but like him to either stop Rocky in the later rounds or win a wide unanimous decision. While I think a stoppage might be slightly more likely, I think both outcomes have a similar chance of occurring so will be placing an equal stake on each outcome. I will be attending this fight and looking forward to the action and seeing in person how well DAZN does with their first big fight in the United States!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Canelo by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 (.5 unit) 
2) Canelo by unanimous decision (.5 unit) 

Follow @mouzonebrother  for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!

George Groves vs. Chris Eubank Jr.: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

Follow @mouzonebrother

Fight: George Groves (27-3, 20 KOs) vs. Chris Eubank Jr. (26-1, 20 KOs)
Location: Manchester Arena, Manchester, United Kingdom
Date: February 17, 2018
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Super Middleweight title
TV: None (in the U.S. will be streamed on World Boxing Super Series YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD3OiO5NLkUJHL23qUv8L0Q/featured)
Line: Groves +158, Eubank Jr. -168 (5 Dimes, 2/17/18)
Purse: Groves: $2.1 million (approximate), Eubank Jr.: $2.1 million (approximate) [The two fighters are splitting a purse of approximately £3 million pounds evenly.]
Ring Magazine Rankings: Groves: #2 ranked super middleweight, Eubank Jr.: #4 ranked super middleweight
Style: Groves: Orthodox, Eubank Jr.: Orthodox
Referee: Michael Alexander

Why you should watch this fight

George Groves vs. Chris Eubank Jr. is one of the most anticipated fights of the year and the most anticipated fight between two UK fighters since Carl Froch rematched Groves in May of 2014, a fight which boasted a post-World War II British record of 80,000 in attendance at Wembley Stadium and sold out in less than an hour. (By comparison, this weekend's Groves vs. Eubank matchup sold out the 21,000-seat Manchester Arena in Manchester, England within just seven minutes.)

This fight features arguably the two best super middleweights in the world. Groves is a technically sound, experienced boxer with very good punching power in both hands that complements his decent hand speed and an ability to box on the move. He's looked fairly impressive in winning his last six fights (four by TKO/KO) since losing a WBC title fight to Badou Jack in 2015 and suffering two TKO losses to Froch in each of the two years prior to that. Groves, who switched trainers to noted UK trainer Shane McGuigan after his loss to Jack, won his first major world title - the WBA super middleweight title - last October vs. previously undefeated UK contender Jamie Cox.

In the first defense of his super middleweight title, Groves will face challenger Eubank Jr. -  the son of former two-weight world champion and British boxing great Chris Eubank Sr.  - who is trying to win the first major title of his professional career. High-volume, speedy, and aggressive with excellent conditioning and very good power, Eubank has looked highly impressive since his  controversial split decision loss in 2014  to current undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders, having decisively won his last eight fights (seven by TKO/KO) and making enough of an impression in recent fights that he enters the fight as a solid (-168) favorite despite being the challenger who has never previously won a major world title.

This fight is being contested as a semifinal within the World Boxing Super Series (WBSS) super middleweight tournament. The winner of this fight will not only be the WBA super middleweight champion (and widely considered the best super middleweight of the world), the winner will advance to the WBSS final in London this June to face the winner of the Callum Smith vs. Juergen Braehmer WBSS semifinal (taking place next Saturday in Germany). While technically a semifinal matchup on paper, Groves vs. Eubank Jr. is essentially a megafight in the UK between two of the top ten British fighters in the sport pound-for-pound and is one of the very best fights that could've been made in boxing overall. Fantastic matchup that has all the makings of being a candidate for fight of the year.

Prefight Analysis

There are a bunch of solid reasons to favor Groves in this fight.

He is the naturally bigger man - a career super middleweight (168 lbs) who could possibly even compete for a world title at light heavyweight (175 lbs), while Eubank has a smaller frame and limited top-level experience at super middleweight, having actually fought most of his more notable fights in recent years at middleweight (160 lbs). Groves also has greater punching power to complement his size advantage (including one-punch power that former Groves opponent Martin Murray rates as superior to Ring Magazine's #1 pound-for-pound fighter Gennady Golovkin's) and is considered by most to be a more skilled, technically sound boxer than Eubank.

Groves without a doubt has more experience than Eubank vs. world-class opponents (particularly at super middleweight), having beaten highly regarded fighters such as James DeGale (an Olympic gold medalist who is still considered by some to be one of the best boxers in the sport pound-for-pound despite his recent upset loss to Caleb Truax), Martin Murray, Fedor Chuvinov, and Jamie Cox. Groves has also been in close, competitive super middleweight title fights vs. Jack (where he lost a split decision) and twice vs. Froch (where he led early in both fights, including the first fight where he led late on all three judges' scorecards before a questionable stoppage). Groves has fought on the world stage before (including in front of 80,000 fans in his second fight vs. Froch at Wembley Stadium n London) and won the WBA super middleweight title in his last fight vs. a solid, undefeated opponent in Cox.

Outside of a past-prime, 37-year-old (though still dangerous) Arthur Abraham, Eubank has yet to defeat any high profile opponents; the biggest name Eubank has fought in his career is current undefeated middleweight champion Saunders, who he lost to by split decision in 2014 after being dominated in the early rounds of the fight. Saturday's fight will be just Eubank's fourth 12-round fight at super middleweight and the first major world title fight of his career.

Generally, if a fighter has the advantages Groves has in size, skills, punching power, and experience you'd expect that fighter to win... when you further consider that sportsbooks are currently offering odds as high as +170 for Groves to win or as high as +500 for Groves to win on points (which are compelling odds given that Eubank has never been stopped or knocked down even once as a pro), even a Groves skeptic would have to strongly consider betting on him simply for the value.

Though I could see this fight going either way and think the odds being offered on Groves are tempting, I still think betting on Eubank Jr. to win is where the best value lies. Despite Groves's advantages in certain notable metrics (size, skill, etc.), I don't think any of those advantages are wide enough vs. an ever-improving Eubank who seems to have gotten better after each fight since his narrow loss three years ago to Saunders. (In other words, while Groves has the edge in size, power, and skill I feel Eubank is comparable enough in these areas to compete and give Groves serious problems.) Though Groves has a slightly larger physical frame and bigger punching power, Eubank strikes me as the physically stronger fighter; I expect that he'll be able to use his superior athleticism and speed to get inside on Groves, where he can impose his physical strength and break him down with high punch volume - particularly in the later rounds of the fight.

Eubank is the better fighter from close range and has the power to hurt Groves on the inside - a brawl-style fight from close distance favors Eubank while a more classic boxing match from mid-range or full distance likely favors Groves. I feel Eubank's advantages in physical strength and speed combined with his typically busy punch output will ultimately allow him to control the pace of the fight and mostly negate some of the advantages Groves has in this matchup.

But the biggest mismatch I see in this fight relates to stamina and mental fortitude. Especially in his biggest fights, Groves is notorious for being a 6-round fighter who starts well only to tire and fade late. Eubank, on the other hand, has a reputation for being a 12-round fighter - one of the more well-conditioned boxers in the sport who seemingly gets stronger as the fight goes on and is capable of turning up his intensity in the late rounds of a fight. 

Groves was leading early in his fights vs. Froch before fading and getting stopped in the late rounds of both fights. He was also leading in the middle rounds of his super middleweight title fight vs. Jack (despite getting knocked down in the first round of the fight) but lost a split decision after losing most of the late rounds. Even in Groves's most impressive win - a majority decision victory vs. DeGale back in 2011 -  he won most of the early rounds before losing most of the late rounds. Groves has a history of faltering in the late rounds vs. top-level opponents - one has to question not only the stamina but the mental toughness of a fighter who consistently fades late in big fights. Eubank is a durable fighter with excellent stamina and a solid chin - and fights with as much (or more) aggressive intensity in late rounds as he does early; this bodes poorly for Groves given his history of tiring late in fights.

Also consider that in recent fights, Groves has not boxed on his feet (i.e., not been as mobile) as much as he did when he was younger (like his win nearly seven years ago vs. DeGale). Groves has instead employed a more stationary style where he is more prone to standing in front of his opponent and trading power punches - a strategy which perhaps allows him to better utilize his outstanding power but a style which probably cost him both of his fights vs. Froch and which may not be the wisest style to employ vs. a durable, high-volume power puncher with a solid chin like Eubank.

I actually expect Groves to outbox Eubank a bit early and get off to a good start (as he typically does in these kind of matchups) but think the stronger, faster, more durable and relentless Eubank will wear Groves down late for a win on points or perhaps even a late stoppage. I get the sense Eubank is hungrier and mentally tougher than Groves (perhaps much more so), and sees this fight as a career-defining moment and a win that will put him on a faster track to international superstardom.

So I do like Eubank overwhelming Groves late for the win as the best bet on this fight. (Eubank to win can currently be had for odds as low as -160.) With that said, Groves to win by decision - which can be found for as high as +500 on Bovada - is a bet that's too good to pass up as a hedge given Grove's advantages in some key metrics (size, skill, power, and experience), as well as the fact that Eubank has never been stopped as a pro. So the betting strategy I'd recommend is Eubank to win hedged with a smaller bet of Groves to win by decision (to cover losses in case Eubank doesn't win). (This betting strategy won't yield much profit but this is where I see the best value in the fight.)

Both fighters have a knack for making exciting fights so this should be a good one!

Prediction: Eubank Jr. to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Eubank Jr. to win (1 unit)
2) Groves to win on points (.33 unit)

Follow @mouzonebrother  for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!

Canelo vs. Chavez Jr.: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Follow @mouzonebrother

Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (48-1-1 34 KOs) vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (50-2-1, 32 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 6, 2017
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs - though fight is being fought at a catchweight of 164.5 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez: -545, Chavez: +465 (5 Dimes, 5/6/17)
Purse: Alvarez: $5 million, Chavez: $3 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #8 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Chavez: Not ranked
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Chavez: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

This fight might be the most anticipated (and most hyped) matchup between two Mexican boxers in the history of the sport - it's certainly is the most anticipated matchup between two boxers of Mexican heritage since the first Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. vs. Oscar De La Hoya fight back in 1996.

Canelo - considered by many one of the best pound-for-pound boxers in the sport - is currently the most popular boxer in Mexico (not to mention probably the top PPV attraction in all of boxing right now) and attracts Superbowl-like ratings in his home country every time he fights. (Most notably his 2013 fight vs. Floyd Mayweather, which we received the highest rating for a boxing event in the history of Mexican television with nearly 80 percent of televisions in Mexico tuned in to see the fight.) Chavez is the son (and namesake) of the most - never mind boxer - athlete in the history of Mexico in Julio Cesar Chavez Sr., a former six-time world champion in three weight classes who is considered by most to be the greatest Mexican boxer of all time. On name alone, Chavez has been a wildly popular boxer in his home country and is still one of the biggest draws in boxing even today - despite not looking particularly impressive in recent fights.

A few years ago this fight could've potentially been promoted as a mega fight but as it stands now the fight is still one of the top 3 or 4 fights between active boxers that could've been made in terms of expected revenue generation.

At -545, Canelo is the strong favorite, but the 164.5 catchweight in this fight nearly 10 pounds higher than any weight limit he's fought at previously. If Canelo wins this fight at this higher weight -particularly if he wins convincingly - the fight that looms more than ever before would be the highly anticipated matchup with middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin. (There would be zero excuses for avoiding a matchup with Golovkin at 160 lbs after defeating Chavez at 164.5 lbs - though the fight may be more appealing to Canelo at this point anyway given Golovkin's troubles in his narrow victory last March vs. Danny Jacobs.)

But if Chavez, whose reputation amongst Mexican and non-Mexican boxing fans alike has diminished considerably due to lackluster performances in recent years (which included a stoppage loss to Andrzej Fonfara in 2015 in which Chavez quit in the 9th round shortly after getting knocked down) and his perceived lack of work ethic, pulls off the upset his tarnished reputation would largely be redeemed and his popularity would receive an enormous boost - likely setting up big PPV fights for him in the near future.

This also happens to be a fight between the only two Mexican-born fighters to have won middleweight world championships. There is a genuine dislike between the two Mexican opponents so this is a fight both will desperately be trying to win - not only for the legacy achieved in winning what is arguably the biggest fight in the history of Mexican boxing but for the satisfaction of one-upping the other in what has become a very bitter and personal rivalry.

Why Canelo Alvarez will win

Despite this fight being contested at a 164.5-lb catchweight, Canelo is actually the current WBO light middleweight (154 lbs) champion and is widely considered one of the best boxers pound-for-pound in the sport. Canelo has held world titles in two weight divisions (light middleweight and middleweight), including being a former unified light middleweight champion, as well as being the lineal and WBC middleweight champion in recent years before vacating the title. The only loss of Canelo's professional career came in 2013 vs. pound-for-pound legend Floyd Mayweather Jr., who is considered by most to be the best boxer of this generation.

Canelo is a solid favorite in this matchup vs. Chavez for a multitude of straightforward reasons. By observation of nearly everyone who follows the sport closely, Canelo is the more talented, more technically skilled, more accurate punching, and higher IQ boxer with faster hands, superior footwork, and better defensive abilities. Canelo is an elite A/A- level boxer in the prime of his career (and seemingly still improving a bit with each fight) facing a fighter in Chavez who, at 31 years old (4.5 years older than Canelo), appears to be past his prime and has never in his career even come close to proving he has the elite-level skills of his revered father.  

Canelo has fought mostly at light middleweight (154 lbs) in recent years but he is a big light middleweight whose power should translate fine to the 164.5 catchweight. Although known as a big puncher (Canelo's won 3 out of his last for fights by KO and has a career KO% of 68%), Canelo is an intelligent, patient boxer who - per CompuBox statistics - is one of the most efficient fighters in the sport. Canelo sets up and throws combination punches very well and is an excellent body puncher - one shouldn't be at all surprised if the largely flat-footed, defensively suspect Chavez presents a fairly easy target for Canelo's offensive attack for much of the fight. Note that Chavez's height (6'1") may prove to be a disadvantage in this fight as it will likely provide the 5'9" Canelo a larger body frame to target, particularly when fighting inside. (Shorter fighters also often have easier angles from which to attack the body when facing taller fighters, who may find it awkward to have to punch down to target their shorter opponent.)

Despite being widely criticized for possibly avoiding a potential fight with feared power puncher Gennady Golovkin (which included being ridiculed by some of his own Mexican fanbase), Canelo has - at just 26 years of age - amassed one of the more impressive resumes in boxing, having fought (and beaten) elite and/or high profile former world champions such as Amir Khan, Miguel Cotto, Erislandy Lara, Shane Mosley, and Austin Trout. (This is in addition to fighting undefeated and pound-for-pound #1 Floyd Mayweather when he was only 23 years old.) Chavez's resume is sketchy in comparison, with his only fight vs. an A-level opponent coming in his September 2012 unanimous decision loss to Sergio Martinez, a fight which was not competitive (and which he arguably lost every round) until the 12th round when he knocked down and nearly stopped Martinez. Chavez's best win came immediately prior to the Martinez fight in a TKO victory vs. Andy Lee, a B-level fighter with good power, but whose skills aren't on the same level as Canelo's. (It should be noted that Chavez was losing the fight to Lee on all three judges' scorecards at the time of the stoppage.)

Chavez is the bigger, more physically imposing fighter who has experience fighting at a weight limit exceeding 170 lbs in the light heavyweight division but he has a plodding, relatively straightforward fighting style that likely won't be difficult for Canelo to anticipate; Canelo's defensive footwork and upper body movement are deceptively slick and have improved significantly since the early stages of his career.

As a big light middleweight, Canelo is expected to adjust to the 164.5 catchweight just fine; Chavez, who has a well documented history of failing to make weight at limits as high as 168 lbs, may experience weight-drain issues which may significantly affect his performance Saturday night.

Saturday's fight, considered one of the biggest in the history of Mexican boxing, will take place on Cinco de Mayo weekend in a sold out T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas in front of mostly Mexican-American and Mexican fans. Although Chavez Jr. is still a very popular Mexican boxer, the crowd is expected to be largely pro-Canelo, which could influence the fight inside the ring as well as the judges' scoring outside the ring. Judges' scorecards in Canelo fights have tended to strongly favor Canelo - even in fights considered close by the general public. (See the scoring in Canelo's recent competitive fights vs. Cotto, Lara, and Austin Trout as examples.) Even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw; so if this fight ends up being much more competitive than expected (which could happen if, for example, Canelo doesn't carry the extra weight as well as expected) don't be at all surprised to see the fight still scored comfortably for Canelo. 

Why Julio Cesar Chavez will win

Chavez comes into tonight's fight as a significant (+465) underdog but there are solid reasons to believe he can be very competitive and perhaps pull off the upset vs. Canelo.

Chavez is the naturally bigger fighter and has (much) more experience at weights exceeding the 154 lb light middleweight limit than Canelo. (Chavez is expected to come into tonight's fight 15-20 lbs heavier than Canelo.) Chavez's size combined with his solid power could prove to be a bit much for the smaller Canelo, whose own power - which is amongst the best at 154 lbs - may not carry up to the 164.5 lb catchweight limit as well as most expect. This will be the first fight of Canelo's professional career above a 155 lb weight limit; given the nearly 10 pound jump in weight, Canelo's skill and hand speed advantages may not be able to overcome the size disparity, especially given that Canelo - who is a bit flat-footed - will have to fight toe-to-toe at close range vs. Chavez's inside pressure-fighting style for large stretches of the fight.

Chavez is an aggressive, come-forward fighter with good power at middleweight. Like his father, Chavez is a very good (and relentless) fighter on the inside, particularly to the body where left hooks and right uppercuts are his most effective punches. Despite the criticism of his work ethic outside of the ring, Chavez has a good work rate inside the ring and possesses good stamina, whereas Canelo is known for sometimes taking rounds off and tiring in the later rounds of fights. One has to wonder whether Canelo's power and skill will be effective at the higher weight or if the larger Chavez be able to wear him down in the later rounds behind a body attack from close range.

Chavez doesn't possess the all-time great talent or skills of his legendary father, but many underrate him as a fighter. Chavez is a former WBC middleweight champion who has beaten former middleweight champions such as Andy Lee, Marco Antonio Rubio, and Sebastian Zbik. Again, Chavez's most impressive victory was likely his 7th round TKO victory vs. Lee, who no one ould consider an elite fighter, but is currently rated a top 5 middleweight in the world by Ring Magazine and BoxRec.com. Chavez's only two losses of his professional career came in 2012 vs. then #3 pound-for-pound fighter Sergio Martinez and in 2015 vs. Andrzej Fonfara in a light heavyweight division fight that was two weight classes above his normal fighting weight.

Chavez's defense has been suspect but he may still have one of the better chins in boxing. Two years ago, Chavez suffered the only knockdown (and ensuing stoppage loss) of his career vs. Fonfara (a fighter with a non-impressive 50% TKO/KO percentage), but that was in his first and only fight at light heavyweight - two weight divisions above the middleweight division he has fought in for nearly his entire career. (Prior to this loss, Chavez's chin was considered to be one of the elite chins in boxing.) Canelo has excellent power at light middleweight but it remains to be seen how well that power carries up to the 164.5 catchweight for this fight; Chavez was stopped for the first time in his career vs. a light heavyweight in Fonfara but I expect his chin to hold up well vs. Canelo, who - despite the power and accuracy with which he throws punches - is a bit small relative to Fonfara,

Chavez is being trained in this fight by legendary trainer Nacho Beristain, a 2006 International Boxing Hall of Fame inductee who has trained 27 world champions, including Ricardo Lopez, Juan Manuel Marquez, Oscar De La Hoya, and Abner Mares. This is Chavez's first fight training under Beristain; it is expected that Beristain will be able to correct at least some of Chavez's technical flaws and concoct a game plan that has a chance of keeping Chavez competitive in the fight. Chavez is also using Memo Heredia as his strength and conditioning coach; Heredia is noted for assisting Juan Manuel Marquez and Jorge Arce in regaining world championship titles in their 30s (most notably Marquez after his 6th round KO of Manny Pacquiao in December 2012).

Overall, Canelo holds nearly all of the advantages related to skill and athleticism, but Chavez is the bigger fighter (in terms of not only size but 5" height advantage and 3" reach advantage) who at his best is very effective at wearing smaller opponents down with pressure and a relentless body attack. Canelo is almost certainly the superior boxer pound-for-pound but the nearly 10-pound jump in weight for this fight might be Canelo biting off a bit more than he can chew.

Prefight Analysis

I think Chavez has a better chance at winning this fight than most think. Canelo is big in size for the light middleweight division he's fought in for most of his career but the nearly 10 lb jump in weight for this fight (which effectively amounts to a one and a half weight class jump) to fight at 164.5 pounds for the first time in his career vs. a tough fighter in Chavez - who has much more experience fighting in this weight range and may come into tonight's fight 15-20 pounds heavier than Canelo - is a daunting task.

Canelo is the more skilled fighter for sure, but he's been bigger and stronger than just about every opponent he's faced in his professional career. That won't be the case Saturday night vs. an opponent in Chavez who will come in several pounds heavier, have the clear height and reach advantage, and arguably has comparable power at the higher weight.

Chavez's size combined with a solid chin - along with what appears to be a renewed sense of work ethic and discipline for this huge fight (unlike many of his recent fights Chavez easily made weight for this fight and most reports indicate he's trained as hard as he's ever trained for a fight under new trainer Beristain) make him a tough nut to crack in this matchup. You'd have to question whether Canelo can effectively pressure a larger fighter with a good chin who will come into the fight as essentially a cruiserweight (i.e., is expected to come into the fight at between 180-190 lbs on fight night) - especially given Canelo's patient, relatively low-output style and tendency to slow down a bit in the later rounds.

It wouldn't be all that surprising to see a motivated Chavez - who really is fighting for his legacy and to salvage his tarnished reputation - wear down the smaller, somewhat flat-footed Canelo in the later rounds with an accumulation of body punches. Chavez has tended to have problems in previous fights with fighters who move well and box effectively on their feet - Canelo is a non-elusive fighter who will be right in front of Chavez for significant stretches of the fight.

But I think the skill and talent disparity between Canelo and Chavez is too great to pick Chavez here. Canelo is a legitimate elite pound-for-pound fighter in the prime of his career who, at 26 years old, is only getting better while Chavez is elite in name only and, at 31 years old, possibly has his best days behind him. Canelo's power may not be as effective as expected at the higher weight class but his hand speed, accuracy, and overall boxing skills are such that it would be very surprising if he didn't outbox and outpoint the slower, defensively-flawed Chavez. (I'd expect Chavez to essentially be target practice for an efficient power puncher like Canelo - especially in the early and middle rounds.
Chavez is the bigger fighter who is particularly effective at fighting inside, but I think Canelo's defense (which has improved throughout his career and seems to still be improving) vs. Chavez's slower, somewhat predictable attack will be good enough to largely mitigate Chavez's size advantage.

I see Canelo landing mostly at will and decisively outpointing Chavez in this fight - the only question is whether Canelo's power will be effective enough at the higher weight class to get the stoppage. Here, I do think Chavez's size advantage, sturdy chin, and strong desire not to embarrass himself in front of the hundreds of millions of Mexican fans who will be watching the fight - along with Canelo's tendency to tire in later rounds - will result in Chavez lasting the distance. Chavez has only been stopped once by a light heavyweight (Fonfara) in a fight he didn't appear prepared for; I don't think the middleweight-sized Canelo will get the stoppage here.

Given that I think there is a strong probability Chavez lasts the distance I think the best value on this fight is betting Canelo to win by 12-round decision, currently priced at +150 (or, preferably, Canelo to win by 12-round unanimous decision if you can find that bet). I see Chavez lasting the full 12 rounds but ultimately don't see his size advantage and ability to break down opponents inside overcoming Canelo's efficient punching and fairly significant advantages in skill, athleticism, and boxing IQ.

Either way I'll be at this fight and am looking forward to (what should be a super-electric) atmosphere almost as much as the fight itself!!!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bet:
Canelo by decision (1.5 units)

Follow @mouzonebrother  for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!

DeGale vs. Jack: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Follow @mouzonebrother

Fight: James DeGale (23-1, 14 KOs) vs. Badou Jack (20-1-2, 12 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: January 14, 2017
Weight class: Super Middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC and  IBF Super Middleweight titles
TV: Showtime
Line: DeGale -242, Jack +247 (5 Dimes, 1/12/17)
Purse: DeGale: $750,000, Jack: $700,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: DeGale: #1-ranked super middleweight; Jack: #2-ranked super middleweight
Style: DeGale: Southpaw, Jack: Orthodox
Referee: Arthur Mercante Jr.

Why you should watch this fight

This is a unification title fight between two current world champions in James DeGale and Badou Jack whom most would consider, at this moment, the top two super middleweight boxers in the world. The winner of this fight will be the unified WBC and IBF super middleweight champion and be considered the top boxer in the world at 168 lbs. 

DeGale vs. Jack is the first major boxing card of 2017 and - outside of Floyd Mayweather's own fights - is the most high profile card Mayweather Promotions has ever done the lead promotion on.

Whoever wins this fight will have earned the biggest win of his professional career. If the favored DeGale - a British former Olympic gold medalist - wins this fight, it will strengthen his claim as one of the elite, top 10 pound-for-pound boxers in the sport that many consider him to be.

Why James DeGale will win

DeGale is the current IBF super middleweight champion of the world and is widely considered to be one of the top 10-15 pound-for-pound boxers in the sport.

DeGale had a distinguished amateur boxing career, winning the Olympic gold medal as a middleweight at the 2008 Beijing Olympics for the United Kingdom. As a pro, he's suffered only one loss - a highly controversial majority decision loss to the then undefeated George Groves. (A slight majority to this day feel DeGale won that fight.)

DeGale is a solid (-242) favorite coming into this fight for numerous reasons. Although not a name known to most casual boxing fans, DeGale is widely considered by boxing purists to be one of the more skilled boxers in the sport given his high boxing IQ and versatile fighting style. DeGale's ability to throw punches from unorthodox angles combined with very good hand speed and accuracy makes it very difficult for opponents to anticipate and cleanly block his punches. DeGale's almost ambidextrous ability to switch between southpaw and orthodox stances - even whilst in the middle of throwing combinations - makes it doubly difficult for opponents to prepare for and defend against his attack.

DeGale is also considered by many to be one of the best  (some might even say the best) inside fighters  in the sport with his instinctive ability to both land and defend against punches inside. DeGale, who has a career KO percentage of 58%, is not known as a big puncher but is adept at wearing his opponents down over several rounds with clean, tough-to-anticipate power punches.

I would anticipate DeGale having success landing vs. the slower, somewhat predictable Jack - a come-forward, pressure fighter who will be right in front of DeGale for most of the fight. Like Terence Crawford, DeGale has the ability to fight from either stance and (as many elite fighters are) is adept at adjusting to his opponent's tendencies over the course of a fight. DeGale can fight coming forward but, with his excellent footwork, is as good or better as a counter puncher fighting off his back foot - a style he will likely have to employ for large stretches of the fight vs. the pressure style of Jack. On his best nights DeGale is a master technician and is more mobile, quicker, and has a more varied set of skills than Jack; if he is on his game one would expect DeGale to outbox Jack both from distance and from the inside.

Although he has seemingly chosen to stand in and exchange more in recent fights, DeGale can be very elusive defensively with his movement and has never been knocked down (or even been in danger of being knocked down for that matter) or stopped as a pro. Jack is aggressive and a highly effective body puncher, but doesn't appear to have the knockout power or speed to pose as a serious knockout threat for DeGale.

DeGale is from the United Kingdom (London) but has not fought in the UK in over two years. (Saturday's fight vs. Jack will be DeGale's fourth consecutive fight outside the UK.) DeGale won, then defended his super middleweight title twice outside of the UK - establishing a reputation as a road warrior who thrives fighting away from home. DeGale didn't look particularly impressive in his last fight, a highly competitive unanimous decision victory vs. an opponent in Rogelio Medina who wasn't expected to be a serious threat - but it seemed DeGale overlooked Medina in anticipation of the already informally-agreed to fight vs. Jack (DeGale admitted as much in post-fight interviews). I would expect DeGale to be much more prepared, train harder, and look significantly sharper for what would be the biggest win of his professional career.

 DeGale has a somewhat flashy, crowd-pleasing fight style that's a bit easier to score points for than the boringly basic, predictable style of Jack. (While unfair, Jack's inability to make an impression on the judges with his effective, yet basic boxing is probably at least part of the reason his last fight with Lucian Bute was scored a draw despite most feeling he won the fight decisively.) In the event of a close fight, I wouldn't be surprised if DeGale's flashier style and more engaging ring presence carries more favor with the judges in terms of scoring the closer rounds.

If DeGale is on his game and fully prepared for this fight it's tough to envision any outcome other than a clear victory for the British boxer, whether by a comfortable decision or by stoppage. DeGale is elite in terms of his talent and overall skills, and is the quicker, faster, seemingly more intelligent boxer; one would expect these advantages to manifest themselves into a likely win for DeGale during Saturday's fight.

Why Badou Jack will win

Like DeGale, Jack is a current (WBC) super middleweight champion who has defended his title twice over the past year. Also like DeGale, Jack has just one loss on his record - a first round TKO loss nearly three years ago to journeyman Derek Edwards - though this loss appears to have been somewhat of a fluke (i.e., the result of a lucky punch landed by Edwards) given Jack's strong performances since then.

Jack seems to be fighting with a high level of confidence in what have been the best performances of his career in some of his recent fights. As a 4-1 underdog in April 2015, Jack won the WBC super middleweight championship with a solid majority decision victory over the then undefeated Anthony Dirrell. A few months later he put up another surprisingly impressive performance as a 3-2 underdog in a split decision victory vs. George Groves, a talented fighter who handed DeGale his only loss as a professional. And in Jack's most recent fight last April, he outboxed former longtime super middleweight champion Lucian Bute in a fight that was very controversially scored a majority draw. (The overwhelming majority of those who watched this fight felt Jack clearly won; it's also worth noting Bute tested positive for a banned substance shortly after the fight.) Jack has proven himself to be a hardworking overachiever in these recent fights; it would not at all be surprising if he outperforms expectations again on Saturday night - especially against an at-times lazy fighter in DeGale who is notorious for taking stretches of fights off (possibly due to issues with stamina).

Jack is a solid, well-rounded (think "jack of all trades, master of none") pressure fighter with decent power and above average mobility. He pops a good jab and counters well with hooks - which could be effective vs. DeGale in spots as DeGale has (perhaps by choice) not been as elusive in recent fights as he had earlier in his career, seemingly choosing at times to trade punches with his opponents from close range and against the ropes. DeGale also has a bad habit of keeping his hands down which may provide Jack with more opportunity for clean counters.

Jack's best asset may be his body punching, which was particularly effective in his two most recent fights vs. Bute and Groves. A durable fighter, Jack is certainly capable of wearing DeGale down with body punches in the middle to late rounds, where DeGale is more prone to getting outworked given his tendency to decrease his punch output during stretches of the latter stages of fights. One should not be surprised if the typically pressuring Jack outworks DeGale late in the championship rounds of this fight.

DeGale's performances in his last two fights since winning the IBF super middleweight title can best be described as mediocre; if DeGale is as lackluster in Saturday's fight vs. Jack as he was vs. Medina and Bute, I'd grade this matchup as at worst a 50/50 fight in favor of the underdog Jack.

While his connection to Mayweather didn't help him in his controversial draw this past April with Bute, Jack is the more "politically connected" fighter in this matchup as he is being promoted by Floyd's Mayweather Promotions firm in what is the most high profile card Mayweather Promotions has served as lead promoter for (other than Floyd Mayweather's own fights of course). This unification title fight is the biggest non-Mayweather fight Floyd has ever promoted and Jack is arguably the best fighter in Mayweather's camp; it would not be unreasonable to think that a close fight *could* get judged with bias in favor of Mayweather's fighter over the fighter from the United Kingdom.

DeGale is widely considered an elite, A-level talent but he's been inconsistent in recent fights and has a habit of fighting down to the level of his opponent. Jack is probably not quite as talented or skilled as DeGale but he is a world-class, top 2 super middleweight fighter in his own right and has arguably performed better than DeGale in recent fights, showing better stamina and putting forth a more consistent effort vs. comparable competition to what DeGale has faced in recent years. If DeGale does not improve from how he's performed over the past couple of fights, one should expect this to be a close, competitive fight in which Jack could very easily pull off the upset.

Prefight Analysis

It wouldn't be completely surprising if Jack wins this fight. He's a well-rounded, top-level fighter who's boxed well in recent fights. Since his career-hindering TKO loss to Edwards nearly three years ago he's bounced back  with impressive performances as an underdog to win a major world title and earn consideration as possibly the best super middleweight in the world. DeGale on the other hand, has looked shaky at times in his recent fights with Medina and Bute and appears more likely than Jack to perform below expectations.

The fact is Jack is an underrated, hardworking fighter who absolutely is capable of outworking and wearing down DeGale, who has a reputation for getting lazy during the middle and late rounds of fights. Jack is a very effective body puncher and DeGale - as he's done in recent fights - may elect to  stand within punching range and exchange with Jack, which could be to his detriment as the fight gets into the later rounds. At nearly 3.5-1 odds, there may be some value in taking Jack to win by 12 round decision.

But as solid as Jack is I do feel at the end of the day that DeGale - when on his game - is a level above Jack in terms of talent and overall skill and that this disparity will end up being the difference in the fight. DeGale's ability to switch stances and give different looks combined with his unorthodox punching style, hand speed advantage, and ability to box on the move will result in DeGale having consistent success landing clean power punches compared to Jack's straightforward, somewhat predictable approach which DeGale will likely have an easier time defending against.

I do feel DeGale has competed down to the level of his opponents in some of his recent fights but will rise to the occasion to perform well in a unification title fight that would be the biggest win of his career.

In terms of what the fight judges will see on the surface, DeGale has a flashier, more crowd-pleasing style and is much more adept at playing to the crowd than the mild-mannered, no frills Jack. (In a fight with a clash of styles such as these this could end up being a deciding factor.)

DeGale is one of the top pound-for-pound boxers in the sport and is a hall-of-fame caliber talent; I expect his special talent to be on full display Saturday night at Barclays Center en route to a competitive but clear decision, if not a late stoppage.

Prediction: DeGale to win

Recommended bet: 1) DeGale to win (1 unit)

Follow @mouzonebrother  for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!

Jack vs. Groves: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Follow @mouzonebrother

Fight: Badou Jack (19-1-1, 12 KOs) vs. George Groves (21-2, 16 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 12, 2015
Weight class: Super Middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Super Middleweight title
TV: Showtime PPV (Mayweather vs. Berto undercard)
Line: Jack +115, Groves -135 (5 Dimes, 9/8/15)
Purse: Jack: $500,000, Groves: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Jack: #6 ranked super middleweight, Groves: #3 ranked super middleweight
Style: Jack: Orthodox, Groves: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Groves opened in early August as the -180 favorite, with Jack as the +150 underdog. Public betting has since trended in favor of Jack - likely because he is coming off the best win of his career in winning a super middleweight title as a 4-1 underdog vs. then undefeated champion Anthony Dirrell and also probably because he is the more well-known name to the American betting public, fighting numerous times on Showtime under #1 pound-for-pound fighter Floyd Mayweather, Jr.'s boxing promotional firm, Mayweather Promotions. Groves is currently now only a -135 favorite, with Jack being only a +115 underdog.

Why Badou Jack will win

Jack is the current WBC World Super Middleweight champion. Jack is high in confidence after his last fight in April, a solid majority decision victory over then undefeated and WBC World Super Middleweight champion Anthony Dirrell. The victory was one of the better performances of Jack's career and is a strong sign Jack has fully recovered from his embarrassing 1st round TKO loss last year vs. journeyman Derek Edwards, who was a 14-1 underdog going into the fight. (The loss was the first and only loss of Jack's career.)

Jack has looked good in recent fights while Groves hasn't looked the same (in particular on the defensive end) since his two recent TKO losses to Carl Froch, looking less than impressive in his wins vs. relatively unknown journeymen Christopher Rebrasse and Denis Douglin.

Jack is a durable fighter while Groves has faded in the later rounds of some of his recent fights, including his two fights vs. Froch and his September 2014 fight vs. Rebrasse; Jack could conceivably outwork a tired Groves in the middle to later rounds in this fight similar to the way he outworked Dirrell in the later rounds of his most recent fight.

Jack is a solid, come-forward fighter with decent power. He pops a good jab and counters well with hooks which will be key vs. an aggressive - and at times defensively irresponsible - Groves.

Lastly, Jack is the more "politically connected" fighter in this matchup as he's promoted by Floyd Mayweather under Floyd's Mayweather Promotions banner and is arguably the best fighter promoted by Mayweather. Mayweather Promotions is promoting most of the featured fighters on the Mayweather/Berto undercard and I'd expect the close fights on the undercard to be at least slightly biased in favor fighters promoted by Mayweather. Jack also currently resides in and fights out of Las Vegas, while this is only Groves' third fight in the United States.

Why George Groves will win

Groves is the better boxer. Groves has the superior technical skills, power, hand and foot speed, overall athleticism, and is the more talented fighter. Groves is a classic boxer-puncher with notable power in both hands, knocking his opponents out at a 76% TKO/KO rate; Jack suffered a 1st round TKO loss just last year to a lesser skilled opponent with less power. Jack doesn't move particularly well and has a questionable chin; given the TKO loss to Edwards, losing by TKO/KO to Groves is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Despite being the younger fighter (by 4 years), the 27-year old Groves has a significant advantage in big fight experience over Jack, having fought top-level fighters such as Carl Froch (twice), James DeGale, and Glen Johnson. In May 2011, Groves beat current IBF Super Middleweight champion and former 2008 Olympic gold medalist DeGale by majority decision in the most impressive victory of his career. (This remains the only loss of DeGale's career.) By comparison, the only top-level fighter on Jack's resume is Anthony Dirrell.

Groves's two TKO losses to Carl Froch are the only losses of his career. Both were losses where Groves was arguably outboxing Froch before getting stopped in the later rounds. Jack doesn't have nearly the KO power Froch had so likely isn't a threat to KO Groves late like Froch did.

Prefight Analysis

Groves hasn't looked as good as expected in his recent fights since his two TKO losses to Froch, employing a more high-volume, aggressive strategy which allowed him to get countered cleanly in spots vs. much lesser fighters. A similar high punch volume strategy may not work vs. Jack - a strong, solid fighter who throws counter hooks well and possesses a good scoring jab which he may use in combination with his slight length advantage to control distance. Jack is a confident fighter riding high off the best win of his career last April vs. Dirrell. He's a more durable fighter than Groves (who has a history of waning in the later rounds) and I think there's a decent change that, in his adopted hometown of Las Vegas, he scores an upset victory by outworking Groves in the middle and later rounds the same way he outworked Dirrell after trailing on the scorecards early in that fight.

With this said, I think too many practical factors favor Groves to not to pick him to win the fight. Groves is the more talented fighter with the better skills, power, hand speed, and foot movement. He is the more experienced fighter who has fought on the big stage before (including in front of approximately 80,000 people at Wembley Stadium in his 2nd fight with Froch) vs. top-level opponents. Groves has previously defeated more accomplished opponents than Jack, namely James DeGale, a former Olympic gold medalist who has top 10-15 pound-for-pound talent. Groves, a good power puncher with a 76% TKO/KO rate, has the power to hurt a relatively flat-footed Jack early, and I think there is a reasonable chance he could win this fight by stoppage.

I think that despite Groves's recent unimpressive performances vs. lesser opponents and Jack's recent title victory momentum, Groves's clear skill and experience advantages should carry him to victory vs. Jack in the main event of the Mayweather/Berto undercard. Jack has never fought an opponent with Groves's combination of talent, skill, and power and I think this will show under the pressure of the big stage in Vegas. Groves is highly capable of winning this fight by stoppage  (likely early as opposed to late), though I think there is also a good chance he wins this fight by decision; so I think Groves simply to win at -135 is the best bet in this matchup.

Prediction: Groves to win (1 unit)

Follow @mouzonebrother  for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!

Froch vs. Groves: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Carl Froch (32-2, 23 KOs) vs. George Groves (19-1-0, 15 KOs)
Location: Wembley Stadium, London, United Kingdom
Date: May 31, 2014
Weight class: Super Middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF Super Middleweight title, WBA Super World Super Middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Froch -165, Groves +155 (5 Dimes, 5/30/14)
Purse: Froch: ,  Groves:
Ring Magazine Rankings: Froch - #10 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked super middleweight), Groves - #5 ranked super middleweight
Style: Froch: Orthodox, Groves: Orthodox
Referee: Charlie Fitch

Positives for Froch

• Current Ring Magazine #10 pound-for-pound fighter.Tough, strong-willed boxer with one of the elite chins in the sport. Current IBF and WBA super middleweight champion.
• Highly experienced fighter. Over the past 4.5 years, has faced as tough competition as anyone in boxing, and has an impressive record of 11-2 in that span, losing only to undefeated current #2 pound-for-pound fighter Andre Ward and former 4-time super middleweight champion Mikkel Kessler (in Kessler's home country of Denmark). Those two losses are the only losses of Froch's career.
• Aggressive boxer with a very good jab. Per CompuBox stats, is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of number of jabs thrown and landed.
• Powerful, high-volume boxer with grade A stamina. Nearly always outworks his opponent (which often helps on points in close fights). 
• Highly confident boxer who fights with tremendous heart. Has been knocked down twice in his career (including his last fight vs. Groves), but recuperated in both fights to win in the later rounds by TKO.Has shown a tendency to come on in later rounds after slow starts.
• Outstanding chin. Has been knocked down twice but has never been stopped (or been in real danger of being stopped) in his career. 

Negatives for Froch

• Froch has a tremendous chin and fights with great heart, but his boxing skills and athleticism are far from top-level; in major fights Froch is usually the inferior fighter in terms of skill.
• Though he ultimately won by TKO, Froch was decisively outboxed by Groves in their previous fight last November. Groves landed the left jab and overhand right with ease vs. Froch in the previous fight (particularly in the early rounds); unless Froch makes significant adjustments defensively, Groves will likely have similar success outboxing Froch in the upcoming fight.
• Froch lacks solid hand and foot speed; Groves will likely beat him to the punch as he did in the previous fight. Froch's best weapon is his jab, a punch he had trouble landing vs. the quicker Groves.
• Defensively, Froch is a highly flawed fighter with subpar footwork and head movement. Per CompuBox stats, Froch's opponents land 41% of power punches vs. Froch, 5th-worst among CompuBox-tracked boxers. 
• Froch is 36 years old entering a fight vs. a guy 10 years his junior who is arguably just entering the prime of his career.

Positives for Groves

• Former Commonwealth and British super middleweight titleholder. Slick, aggressive boxer with top-level technical skills. Has good hand/foot speed and very good punching power in both hands. 
• Has lost only once in his career, although the loss was by 9th-round TKO to Froch. Despite losing, Groves did clearly outbox Froch throughout the majority of the nine rounds and was winning the fight on all three judges' scorecards at the time of the stoppage. 
• This will be Groves' 2nd fight vs. Froch. Generally, rematches favor the more technically skilled fighter, who is more apt to make the adjustments necessary to win the fight. Groves not only has the advantage in skill vs. Froch, he has better hand/foot speed and arguably even has a more powerful punch than Froch. In the last fight vs. Froch, Groves consistently beat Froch to the punch, landing his left jab and overhand right seemingly at will during some stretches of the fight.
• Groves is solid defensively. Uses his foot speed to stay out of his opponent's range when he needs to. Did lose by TKO in his last fight vs. Froch but the stoppage was highly questionable. Groves has never been knocked down in his career.
• Groves is 26 years old (10 years younger than Froch) and entering the prime of his career. Although Groves lacks Froch's experience, he has fought very solid competition such as James DeGale and Glen Johnson, beating both by decision. 

Negatives for Groves

• Groves' chin is questionable after the TKO in his last fight vs. Froch. Although the stoppage was questionable, Froch did land some massive power punches which had Groves in trouble. If Froch can stop Groves once, he can certainly do it again. 
• Groves has shown stamina issues in previous fights (including the last fight vs. Froch) whereas Froch's punches are as powerful in later rounds as they are in the early stages of fights. If Groves again tires late in the fight, another late round stoppage is possible.
• In prefight appearances, Groves appears confident to the point of perhaps being overconfident. Groves has indicated he will stand in and trade in an attempt to win by knockout, which may prove to be the wrong strategy vs. a power puncher such as Froch.
• Compared to Froch, Groves is relatively inexperienced. Froch's experience and will-to-win may be the difference if the fight is close. 

Prefight Summary

This one is tough to predict. Potential fight-of-the-year candidate that could go either way. On the one hand you have George Groves, clearly the technically superior, faster boxer, who should have success outboxing Froch through a good portion of this fight (as he did in the previous fight). If Groves stays patient, uses his speed advantage to control distance, keeping this a pure boxing match (as opposed to a brawl), he will likely win a comfortable decision, if not get the TKO/KO at some point during the fight. Groves looked impressive in outboxing Froch throughout most of their first fight; he (and most boxing fans) felt the early stoppage in the previous fight was unfair and he will definitely be fighting with a chip on his shoulder in the rematch.

On the other hand you have Carl Froch, the veteran warrior with a granite chin and unquestionable heart. Despite Groves dominating much of the first fight and landing numerous clean power punches, Froch still found a way to win via TKO. Although the 9th round stoppage was highly controversial, Froch did clearly have Groves in trouble in that round and the fight appeared to be turning in Froch's favor with Groves tiring. If the fight hadn't been stopped at that point, it highly possible Froch would've earned a legitimate stoppage later in the fight or won on the scorecards if he controlled the last three rounds.

This matchup is nothing new for Froch; Froch has fought numerous top-level fighters who were considered technically superior with a speed advantage, and has beaten most, including Groves in their first fight.

I think this matchup will come down to Groves and the approach he takes in the fight. If Groves chooses to stay within distance of Froch and trade punches in the hopes of winning by TKO/KO (as he has indicated he may do in pre-fight appearances), I think Froch's chin will be able to withstand Grove's barrage and see the most likely scenario being Froch by mid/late round stoppage as Groves tires. But if Groves keeps his distance and boxes Froch (as he did in his fight vs. DeGale and as he did through much of the first fight with Froch), I believe Groves' skill and speed advantages should result in a clear decision in his favor.

 Ultimately, I think Groves will choose to fight a smart fight and outbox Froch from the outside, using his hand speed to beat Froch to the punch and using his foot speed to avoid Froch's power from close range. Froch has always been slow-footed and flawed defensively so I expect Groves will be able to land the same quality of punches he landed in the previous fight. Over the course of 12 rounds, Froch could certainly catch up to Groves at some point and end the fight early again with a heavy punch but I think Groves will be more cautious this time around.

In terms of betting, I favor Groves only slightly; this is a 55/45 fight that could go either way. But with Groves being a +155 underdog in a coin-flip matchup, my money will definitely be on Groves, who at the end of the day is the better boxer.    

Prediction: Groves by decision