Wilder vs. Fury II: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Deontay Wilder (42-0-1, 41 KOs) vs. Tyson Fury (29-0-1, 20 KOs)
Location:  MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: February 22, 2020
Weight class: Heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World heavyweight title
TV/Stream: ESPN/FOX PPV
Line (5 Dimes): Wilder: -131, Fury: +121  (12/20/20)
Purse: Wilder: $5 million, Fury: $5 million (though both will be guaranteed at least $25 million each, not including percentages of PPV profits)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Fury: #1 ranked heavyweight
Style: Wilder: Orthodox, Fury: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

I've found it (mildly) surprising that a clear majority of boxing experts/sharps - including quite a few who picked Fury to win the first fight and actually thought he won that fight despite the fight being scored a draw - are picking Wilder to win by TKO/KO in the rematch. Indeed, Wilder by TKO/KO *might* be the most likely of all specific outcomes so might - especially at well above even money odds (currently +125 at 5Dimes) - be the best bet on this fight. As noted (perhaps ad nauseam) in the massive Fox/ESPN promotion for the fight, Deontay Wilder might have the hardest single punch in the *history* of boxing with his straight right hand. Wilder has the highest TKO/KO percentage in heavyweight boxing history (95.4%) and has either knocked out or knocked down every fighter he's ever faced in his professional career, including knocking Fury down twice in the last four rounds of their first fight. 

Wilder - who took up boxing relatively late at 20 years old - is actually a still-improving fighter who has shown noticeable improvement in most of his recent fights in particular. Wilder's improvement is reflected in the fact that in each of his two previous rematches (vs. Bermane Stiverne in November 2017 and Luis Ortiz in 2019), Wilder was able to finish his opponent faster in the rematch than he was in the first fight; it certainly stands to reason that there's a very good chance Wilder could look similarly impressive in tonight's rematch vs. Fury.

To his credit, Wilder did  make the necessary adjustments  - in the last four rounds of his first fight vs. Fury - to his punch trajectory that enabled him to knock Fury down twice and almost stop him in the 12th round. It stands to reason that Wilder's successful adjustments (which speak to at least a partial "figuring out" of Fury's defensive movement) will carry over into the rematch.

The fact that Fury just three months ago switched trainers (from Ben Davidson to the Kronk Gym's SugarHill Steward) for tonight's rematch might also be of concern to Fury supporters, as it typically takes time for even experienced, elite boxers to adjust to a new trainer (though Fury is familiar with Steward from having previously trained under his uncle Emmanuel Steward many years ago at the same gym). All indications are that the switch in trainers was made to implement a more aggressive, come-forward attack strategy vs. Wilder with the hopes of beating Wilder by knockout; this could very well prove to be a foolhardy strategy vs. one of the hardest punchers in the history of boxing as it perhaps will do little more than increase Fury's own chances of getting knocked out himself.

Furthermore, Fury weighing in for this fight at 273 pounds - 16.5 pounds heavier than he weighed in his first fight with Wilder - could render him less able to be as mobile and elusive as he likely will need to be at certain points of the fight, particularly in the late stages where he was knocked down twice in the previous fight vs. Wilder. (Despite the draw, Fury won the first fight in most people's eyes largely by employing his typical rangy, pot shot-from-distance style with constant movement that helped him mostly avoid Wilder's knockout punches for *most* of the fight.)

I did pick Wilder to win by TKO/KO in the first fight, though that was nearly entirely because I felt Fury took that fight too soon after a 2.5 year layoff  - a layoff riddled with mental health and substance abuse issues, as well as a near 150-pound weight gain - and not having fought any world-class competition in the months in the months leading up to that fight to prep himself. It seems even more boxing experts (including gambling "sharps" generally sharper at picking fights than myself) are picking Wilder to win by TKO/KO in tonight's rematch.

But despite all the concerns I've detailed above - including the recent trainer change and weight gain coming in to tonight's fight - I'm going to go against what seems to be the sentiment of most boxing experts and stick with my months-old (since the rematch was announced last Spring) prediction  that Tyson Fury will win his rematch with Wilder (and will win in likely decisive fashion).

Despite all the concerns I've noted above, at the end of the day Fury is the better-skilled, smarter, defensively-sharper, overall superior boxer who - by most boxing observers' estimation - decisively outboxed Wilder in their first fight, outside of the two rounds in the fight where he was knocked down. Yes, Wilder has proven himself to be one of the better knockout artists in boxing history, but I firmly believe the 12th-round knockdown in the first fight was more the result of Fury getting careless and believing he already had the fight won. (According to the official judges' scorecards, Fury would indeed have won the fight by split decision if he hadn't gotten knocked down in the last round). I see Fury ramping up his focus in the rematch and finding a way through his superior guile and fighting abilities - whether it be using his reach advantage and footwork to outbox Wilder from distance as he did in the first fight or using his size advantage and increased weight to impose his physicality on the inside as he's claimed he might do in the lead-up to the fight - to avoid the knockout punches he suffered when he got careless in the late stages of the first fight and box his way to a decisive victory.

One oft-repeated mantra of boxing is that in rematches between a boxer and a puncher, it is generally the (more fundamentally skilled) boxer who performs better in the rematch, as the boxer is typically more equipped to make the tactical adjustments necessary to more decisively outbox the puncher (given that the puncher is typically less diverse in terms of the range of his fighting abilities). Many are of the belief that it will actually be Wilder who performs better in tonight's fight, given that he did make adjustments in the late stages of the previous fight and given his history of improvement in rematches - as well as the room he has as a still somewhat raw fighter to improve in comparison to Fury, who many felt fought about as well as he could fight in the first match, yet still only earned a draw. But I think the boxer-over-puncher in rematches mantra will hold up in this fight (as it's more often than not held up in similar situations) and think Fury has trained to exploit the flaws in Wilder that he realized from the first fight (which is likely at least partly reflected in his decision to change trainers and come into this fight over 15 pounds heavier).

So I'm taking the superior boxer (Fury) to outbox and outwit the superior puncher (Wilder) in the rematch. While I think Fury most likely wins by decision, I prefer the bet of Fury simply to win (which can currently be had at +110 or better) given Fury's stated strategy of going into the fight with the purpose of trying to knock Wilder out in the early rounds (a strategy which is evidenced by Fury's trainer change and coming into this rematch at a heavier weight). I'm partially hedging the bet with a bet on the under 10.5 rounds (which I got early in the week at +110 but can still be had for around -115); this bet covers most scenarios where Wilder knocks Fury out but also covers most scenarios where Fury actually pulls off what it seems he's going into the fight with the full intention of doing - knocking Wilder out.

Lastly, I'd like to note that I largely view the Wilder vs. Fury rematch - both in the promotion of the fight and in the actual fight itself - as a (very well-played) game of optics; for the fight itself these "optics" I think have swayed even some boxing experts to the Wilder side of the ledger.

Optics present Wilder/Fury II as a megafight; one of the most anticipated heavyweight fights of this generation and perhaps the most anticipated heavyweight fight since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson back in 2002. But the reality is this fight might be the most over-promoted fight in the 100+ year history of boxing. The massive multi-million dollar, dual-network promotion invested in this fight belies the fact that the first Wilder/Fury fight only did 325,000 PPV buys and that both fighters have had disappointing ratings in *all* the fights they've appeared in since that first fight. Neither Wilder or Fury's name carries mainstream cache (the majority of Americans don't even know who they are) and as of right now just a few hours prior to the fight, there are still numerous tickets available for the fight in an arena with a capacity of approximately 17,000 for boxing events. As of now, neither fighter even has a solid hall-of-fame resume (though Wilder's is perhaps borderline); in sum, one would be very hard-pressed to believe the actual caliber of this fight comes even close to matching the promotional resources invested into it.

Wilder's knockdowns, most notably his dramatic knockdown of Fury in the 12th round of their previous fight, provide impressive optics for those who might otherwise have been inclined to believe Fury would win the rematch. The reality is, Fury did avoid Wilder's power for nearly the entire fight and - in my opinion - likely only got caught in the 12th round after getting careless thinking he had the fight won.

Wilder's "swagger" (for lack of a better term at this moment,) is yet another impressive optic. Coming from a family of preachers, Wilder was blessed with a gift of gab and exudes extreme amounts of confidence - not only in how he expresses himself verbally but in his overall demeanor. At the end of the day, Wilder has always gotten the job done in the ring. But I do also think the swagger, confidence, and optics of his knockdowns have overstated his actual abilities a bit and think he's been a bit overrated (by casual fans and boxing experts alike) as a result. While expressed differently, I do believe Fury has a comparable level of confidence and self-belief as Wilder to match his superior skills and believe that will show clearly in tonight's fight.

Prediction: Fury to win

Recommended bets: 1) Fury to win (bet to RISK 1 unit) 2) Wilder/Fury under 10.5 rounds (risk .5 unit)

Santa Cruz vs. Frampton II: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Leo Santa Cruz (32-1-1, 18 KOs) vs. Carl Frampton (23-0, 14 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: January 28, 2017
Weight class: Featherweight (126 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Featherweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Santa Cruz +160, Frampton -170 (5 Dimes, 1/28/17)
Purse: Santa Cruz: $900,000, Frampton: $1 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Santa Cruz: #4 ranked featherweight, Frampton: #10 ranked pound-for-pound, #2 ranked featherweight
Style: Santa Cruz: Orthodox, Frampton: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

This is a very highly anticipated rematch of what was universally considered one of the top two or three fights of 2016 - a fight in which undefeated and recently-crowned 2016 Ring Magazine, ESPN, and Boxing Writers Association of America (BWAA) fighter of the year Carl Frampton outpointed 3-1 favorite Leo Santa Cruz in a closely-contested, majority decision thriller. The win earned Frampton the previously undefeated Santa Cruz's WBA featherweight title (after Frampton had unified the WBA and IBF super bantamweight titles earlier in the year in a split decision victory vs. then undefeated Scott Quigg) and made him the first foreign-born fighter in 13 attempts to win a world title vs. an American-born fighter on U.S. soil.

Like their previous fight, this fight should be another classic matchup of quantity vs. quality between two top-rated boxers in their prime - the at times electric, punch-per-second Santa Cruz vs. the better-skilled, more accurate punching Frampton.

Punch for punch, Santa Cruz may be the most exciting fighter in the sport (CompuBox statistics consistently rate him among the top one or two fighters in the sport in terms of both punches thrown and punches landed), but he lost a very close majority decision in front of what was a decidedly pro-Frampton crowd at Barclays Center in New York City. The rematch will take place in Las Vegas, Nevada - a location only a few hours from Santa Cruz's hometown of Los Angeles where Santa Cruz's Mexican-American and Mexican fans are expected to have a much stronger presence.

 Will the slicker, craftier Frampton outbox Santa Cruz again to retain his featherweight title (and retain his status as possibly the top featherweight in the world) or will Santa Cruz's punch output in front of what should be more home-friendly confines in Las Vegas carry the day in his attempt to avenge the first loss of his career?

Why Leo Santa Cruz will win

Despite getting outboxed in their first fight last July, Santa Cruz is only a little worse than a 3-2 underdog in this rematch vs. Frampton. The first fight was very close, despite the massive Irish and Irish-American pro-Frampton contingent that appeared to dominate the Madison Square Garden crowd. (I was in attendance for the fight and scored it a 114-114 draw, while one of the three judges also scored the fight a draw.)

In Las Vegas - only a four hour drive from his hometown of Los Angeles - Santa Cruz should expect much more friendly crowd support from his Mexican and Mexican-American fanbase, especially given that Santa Cruz is arguably the most popular and high profile active boxer from nearby Los Angeles. The change in venue from a pro-Frampton arena to likely a pro-Santa Cruz one has a good chance of energizing Santa Cruz's efforts inside the ring and possibly influencing the judges' scoring outside the ring in favor of Santa Cruz. (I do feel the first fight was closer than the 117-111 and 116-112 scores that two of the three judges provided and - from being at the fight and experiencing the energy of the crowd in person - feel that the judges could've been affected in part by the raucous crowd support Frampton enjoyed at Madison Square Garden.)

Santa Cruz is a come-forward pressure fighter who suffered the first loss of his professional career in last July's fight vs. Frampton. Santa Cruz typically wins by overwhelming his opponents with an accumulation of  of punches (often throwing over 100 punches a round) thrown from a wide array of angles.

Per CompuBox stats, Santa Cruz threw exactly 50% more punches than Frampton in their first fight - throwing more punches than Frampton in each round - and landing more punches overall. Despite this, Santa Cruz lost a close decision, largely because in trying to initially be patient and box Frampton his punch output in the first five rounds of the fight was nearly 40% less (67.8 punches thrown per round) than it was over the last seven rounds of the fight (94.7 punches thrown per round). Given Santa Cruz's notoriously excellent stamina and Frampton's tendency to fade a bit in later rounds, it was not surprising to see Santa Cruz increase his punch activity in the middle and later rounds of the fight and win most of the late rounds vs. Frampton. Santa Cruz has a much better idea of what to expect in this fight so if he is less cautious and can pick up his punch activity early he stands a good chance of winning some of the early rounds he lost in the last fight - especially in front of what should be a much friendlier crowd in Vegas.

Santa Cruz is the naturally bigger fighter with a 7" reach advantage. Though Frampton generally landed the more accurate, cleaner power punches in their last fight the punches - with the exception of a couple in the early rounds - didn't seem to affect the bigger Santa Cruz too much. Santa Cruz has only been knocked down once in his professional career and was seemingly never in danger of being knocked down or stopped in last year's fight vs. Frampton. If Santa Cruz can use his reach advantage and keep his punch activity high in the face of Frampton's superior power and counter punching abilities I see him both outthrowing and outlanding Frampton by a larger margin than he did in the last fight, which in my opinion would likely lead to a decision victory for Santa Cruz even if Frampton is more accurate and lands most of the cleaner shots as he did in the last fight.

Santa Cruz dealt with a significant life distraction in his last fight vs. Frampton as his father Jose Santa Cruz - who has also been his lead trainer for his entire professional career - was suffering from and being treated for stage 3 bone cancer during prefight preparations. This distraction no doubt led to stress and lack of focus in preparing for the first fight. (Even Frampton admitted that Santa Cruz's father's cancer diagnosis likely affected Santa Cruz's mindset going into the last fight.) With Santa Cruz's father's cancer now in remission and with Santa Cruz's father fully dedicated to training duties (Santa Cruz's older brother Antonio assumed most of the lead trainer duties while his father underwent cancer treatment), one should expect a more focused and energized Santa Cruz in the rematch.

Why Carl Frampton will win

Why could Carl Frampton beat Santa Cruz? Well he is still undefeated and just beat Santa Cruz in his last fight this past July. In that fight, Frampton did outbox Santa Cruz and showed he was the more skilled, accurate, crafty boxer with faster hand speed and - despite being the smaller fighter - arguably better punching power. (He certainly hurt Santa Cruz more than Santa Cruz hurt him in the first fight.)

Despite Santa Cruz throwing 50% more punches, Frampton landed almost as many punches (242 for Frampton vs. 255 for Santa Cruz) and landed at a much higher percentage than Santa Cruz (36.2% of punches landed for Frampton vs. only 25.4% of punches landed for Santa Cruz) while landing the cleaner, more powerful punches in the process. Frampton not only landed at a higher percentage than Santa Cruz overall, he landed at a higher percentage in each of the 12 rounds of the fight. So despite the fact that the last fight was (correctly) considered close and competitive, it was arguably a dominant performance by Frampton over Santa Cruz in terms of pure boxing ability given the disparity in percentage and quality of punches landed. There's little reason to believe the technically superior Frampton won't again use his very good timing and accuracy to exploit Santa Cruz's often over-aggressive and sometimes sloppy pressure style with well-timed jabs and power punching as he did in the last fight.

Frampton appears to be the more intelligent, versatile boxer so appears to be the boxer who is more likely to make the proper adjustments from the previous fight. (Technically superior boxers generally fare better vs. less skilled fighters in rematches.) Frampton boxes much better on the move than Santa Cruz which - combined with his solid, stiff jab - should allow him to control distance vs. Santa Cruz despite Santa Cruz's 7" reach advantage.

Frampton's first fight vs. Santa Cruz took place in New York City in front of a pro-Frampton crowd littered with Irish and Irish-American supporters. Tonight's fight will be in Las Vegas - closer to Santa Cruz's hometown of Los Angeles - so Frampton likely won't enjoy the raucous support he enjoyed in New York City. But boxing fans from the United Kingdom are known for traveling extremely well; there will for sure be a huge, enthusiastic contingent of Irish traveling from overseas for the fight so while Santa Cruz will probably enjoy at least a slight advantage in crowd support, significant - and possibly louder - portions of the crowd will be pulling for Frampton. (So the Las Vegas location may not being as home-friendly for Santa Cruz as it may seem from the surface.)

Frampton is the more skilled boxer (arguably more skilled by a wide margin judging from the last fight) with advantages in accuracy, power, and speed and just beat Santa Cruz in their first fight only a few months ago; it will be difficuly for Santa Cruz to overcome all of these advantages to pull off the upset.

Prefight Analysis

I give Frampton a slight 55/45 edge in this rematch and think he *probably* beats Santa Cruz again. Despite the fact that I actually scored their first fight a draw, I thought Frampton clearly showed he was the better fighter by landing punches at a significantly higher percentage (including landing at a higher percentage in every single round of the fight) and landing the vast majority of the cleaner, more powerful punches. The fact that Frampton landed almost as many punches as Santa Cruz was impressive given that Santa Cruz threw 50% more punches in the fight. Frampton was the more accurate, crafty fighter; his slick foot movement and counterpunching skills were generally very effective vs. Santa Cruz's high-volume, hyper-aggressive punch output.

As the superior boxer, one would expect Frampton to do more of the same in tonight's fight. Frampton is a naturally reactive boxer who reads his opponents very well - after having already fought (and outboxed) Santa Cruz previously one would expect he'd be the fighter more apt to make the necessary adjustments to beat Santa Cruz even more decisively in a rematch.

Style-wise, I think Frampton holds so many advantages over Santa Cruz (skill, speed, accuracy, boxing IQ, power) that you have to grade him as at least a slight favorite to win the rematch.

But in terms of betting on the fight I actually feel the most value here is in betting on Santa Cruz to win by decision (currently at approximately 2.8-1 odds). The 2.8-1 odds on Santa Cruz to win by decision is theoretically a profitable bet if you think Santa Cruz wins by decision at least 26.5% of the time; I grade Santa Cruz's chances of winning by decision at closer to 40-45%, making this bet - at least in my estimation - a very solid value bet.

Despite Frampton mostly outboxing Santa Cruz in their first fight in landing the cleaner punches at a higher percentage, Santa Cruz did decisively outwork Frampton with his punch output - throwing more punches than Frampton in every round - and came on the latter part of the fight to win most of the late rounds. Despite Frampton's impressive boxing display vs. Santa Cruz's high-volume effort, the first fight was still a very close and competitive fight to the point where one of the judges scored the fight a draw. (I was at the fight and also scored the fight a draw and would even have been okay with a close decision to Santa Cruz given his success outworking and landing clean punches on Frampton in the later rounds.) If Santa Cruz gets off to a better start in the early rounds of tonight's fight (which I think stands a pretty good chance of happening - Santa Cruz can afford to risk being less cautious early as the smaller Frampton did not show a consistent ability to hurt him), I think the conditions of the fight are set up well for Santa Cruz to continue on and pull off the upset.

While Frampton will have his share of loud and enthusiastic fans in Las Vegas, the pro-Frampton crowd support for this fight - which I believe played at least a small role in how the fight was scored by a couple of the judges - won't be near what it was in New York City for the first fight.  And in tonight's fight, I see Santa Cruz being more focused and energized than in the last fight given that his father - who was undergoing cancer treatment during preparations for the last fight - is healthy again and has resumed full lead trainer duties for this fight.

While I think Frampton probably wins this fight - given the conditions of the near-west coast location (which should favor Santa Cruz), a likely more prepared and energized Santa Cruz, and Santa Cruz's ability to outwork and outpunch his opponent even when getting outboxed, Santa Cruz by decision at 2.8-1 odds appears to be the best bet in terms of value.

Either way let's hope this fight is at least half as entertaining as the last one!

Prediction: Frampton to win

Recommended bet: Santa Cruz by 12 round decision (1 unit)

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Crawford vs. Postol: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Terence Crawford (28-0, 20 KOs) vs. Viktor Postol (28-0, 12 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: July 23, 2016
Weight class: Super Lightweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC and WBO Super Lightweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Crawford -570, Postol +480 (5 Dimes, 7/23/16)
Purse: Crawford: $1.3 million, Postol: $675,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Crawford: #6 ranked pound-for-pound, #2 ranked junior welterweight, Postol: #1 ranked junior welterweight
Style: Crawford: Orthodox, Postol: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Why you should watch this fight

Terence Crawford is being promoted as potentially the next great American boxing superstar; this fight will go a long way towards answering whether he can achieve that potential. Saturday night's fight is the PPV debut for both Crawford and Postol. Both are undefeated with identical 28-0 records and are universally recognized as the top two fighters at 140 lbs. The winner of this fight will likely be the favorite as the next opponent for Manny Pacquiao, whose promoter Bob Arum (who happens to also be the promoter for both Crawford and Postol) has already reserved the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas for a PPV fight in November (though the fact that Postol and Pacquiao have the same trainer in Freddie Roach complicates things in terms of a possible Pacquiao/Postol matchup). The winner of this fight will not only be the WBC and WBO super lightweight champion, but will also be the lineal super lightweight champion (as Danny Garcia vacated that title to move up to the welterweight division.

This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the year - an up and coming potential superstar in Crawford who is already rated one of the best boxers in the world pound-for-pound vs. an arguably equally skilled but much lesser known fighter in Postol. Crawford is athletically superior in terms of speed, quickness, and power but Postol moves very well on his feet, has the clear reach advantage, and is generally more active in terms of punches thrown. The winner of this fight will be firmly established as one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world and sit on the cusp of boxing superstardom, pending the potential fight with Pacquiao this fall.

Why Terence Crawford will win

Despite both fighters being undefeated and head and shoulders above the rest in the 140 lb division, Crawford is a wide 6-1 favorite for multiple reasons. Crawford is the athletically superior fighter, possessing better power, speed, and quickness than Postol (though Crawford's advantages here are perhaps not as wide as some think). Crawford is a two-division (former lightweight and current super lightweight) world champion and the more proven fighter, having beaten former world champions and top contenders such as Yuriokis Gamboa, Ricky Burns, Raymundo Beltran, Thomas Dulorme, Dierry Jean, and Hank Lundy. (Postol by comparison has fought only two opponents ranked in the top 20 within his division - Lucas Matthysse and Hank Lundy.)

Crawford's versatility - most notably his ability to fight from either the orthodox or southpaw stance at an elite level - will likely pose problems for Postol whose defense can be a bit careless in spots... in particular the way he shoots his jab while moving to the right, which sometimes leaves him susceptible to right-hand counters. Crawford is an accurate counter puncher with power in both hands and is outstanding at making mid-round adjustments; one should expect he'll eventually have success penetrating Postol's defense despite Postol's constant foot movement and reach advantage.

Given Postol's lack of top-level experience, there is a reasonable chance he's overrated despite being undefeated and the #2-ranked fighter in the division. Crawford is a (huge) step up for him and is by far the most talented and skilled boxer he's fought in his professional career. Postol has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career (even vs. highly feared power puncher Matthysse where he displayed a solid combination of good chin and elusiveness defensively) but if Postol's undefeated record is more a case of him looking better than we thought he was vs. B- and C-level fighters, Crawford's power and skills (which are generally regarded as A-level) will likely expose Postol fairly quickly.  

At 5'11", Postol has a 3" height advantage in this fight and fights tall but that may work against him as Postol's relatively tall frame may prove to be an easy target for an accurate puncher like Crawford.

Postol has displayed surprisingly good power in his three fights under Freddie Roach but Crawford, like Postol, has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career and has shown an excellent chin in some of his more high profile fights (in particular vs. power puncher Gamboa) so one shouldn't expect a fighter with a 43% KO percentage in Postol to stop Crawford (or pose any sort of threat in terms of punching power for that matter).

Crawford is from Omaha, Nebraska and tonight's fight is in Las Vegas but Crawford's Omaha fanbase travels very well (Crawford's fight this past February in New York City sold out largely due to Crawford's fanbase) and the fact that Crawford is American should render Crawford the strong crowd favorite at the MGM Grand, which should provide motivation for Crawford inside the ring and could influence the judges' scoring outside of it. Crawford has been promoted as the A-side for this PPV event and - for numerous reasons - boxing politics would strongly prefer a Crawford vs. Pacquiao rather than Postol vs. Pacquiao matchup later this fall. If the fight is close one should expect the judging to favor the the fighter being promoted as a future superstar over the lesser known Ukrainian - even if Postol slightly outboxes him.

Why Viktor Postol will win

Postol comes into this fight as a significant underdog but - like Crawford - is an undefeated world champion in the 140 lb division. While not quite as athletic as Crawford, Postol - in my opinion - is on Crawford's level in terms of skill and boxing IQ. (In the effort to promote Crawford as a future superstar I do think Crawford's skills have been a bit overrated by numerous boxing outlets, most notably HBO Sports.)

Postol is a relatively tall (5'11"), lengthy (73.5" reach) fighter who is adept at working behind his long jab to set up combination punches from distance. With a long 70" reach, Crawford is a fighter who typically enjoys a reach advantage over his opponents, which he's often used behind the jab as a timing mechanism; Saturday night will be a rare instance where Crawford will not have a reach advantage (and on the contrary will actually have a clear disadvantage in reach).

As a combination puncher, Postol is a high punch volume fighter who moves very well on his feet. Crawford - especially in the early rounds - is typically a patient, cautious fighter who likely won't match Postol's work rate. Crawford is notorious for being a slow starter; in recent fights he lost the 1st round to Ricky Burns, lost 3 or 4 of the first 4 rounds to Gamboa, was trailing most of the 1st round vs. Beltran before rallying late to take the round, lost the 1st round vs. Dulorme, was losing the 1st round vs. Jean before scoring a knockout late in the round, and lost the 1st round vs. Lundy. Against a highly skilled, elusive fighter with a high work rate and considerable reach advantage like Postol, I actually expect Crawford to be trailing after the early rounds while trying to figure out how to break down Postol's relatively unusual combination of height, reach, high punch volume, and mobility. Given Postol's ability to fight off his back foot, there is a good chance that much of this fight is fought from the outside - where Postol likely has an advantage with his reach and work rate.
Three years ago, Crawford fought Prescott, a talented fighter with a height (5'11") and reach (72") similar to Postol's in a fight that Crawford dominated... but Prescott did not have the combination punching skills or work rate that Postol has.

Crawford has made a career recently of fighting talented, but undersized opponents; Crawford's last two opponents - Lundy and Jean - both were fighting at lightweight (135 lbs) before moving up in weight to fight Crawford. Both Gamboa and Burns were noticeably smaller than Crawford when Crawford fought them at lightweight. (Gamboa had actually been a featherweight - two divisions below lightweight - for most of his career but was still able to give Crawford a lot of problems in the early rounds of their fight.) Postol is a natural 140 lb fighter and is actually naturally bigger than Crawford. This will be the first fight of Crawford's career vs. a world-class opponent of his own size; Crawford may not be able to overpower Postol like he has many of the smaller fighters he's faced in recent fights.

Crawford slips punches well but at times gets careless and is more than willing to take punches to set up his own attack. (Gamboa in particular tagged Crawford quite a bit in the early rounds of their fight and tested his chin early.) Crawford has heart and a lot of street fight in him but that may work to his disadvantage vs. Postol's combination of intelligent movement. reach advantage, volume, and ability to box on his feet from distance. I would not be surprised if Postol is able to neutralize Crawford's strong jab game with his longer jab and movement, which may frustrate Crawford and lead to countering opportunities for Postol from distance as Crawford increases his aggressiveness in the middle and late rounds. Note also that Postol is proven to have a solid chin, having never been knocked down or knocked out in his career, including his most recent fight vs. one of the most feared punchers in the sport in Matthysse, who's had 34 of his 37 wins come by KO. Crawford is certainly more skilled than Matthysse, but does not have Matthysse's power and is not a particularly busy fighter so it is tough for me to envision Crawford winning this fight by stoppage given Postol's strong chin and elusive style.  Note that in training under Freddie Roach, Postol has had a lot of experience sparring vs. Manny Pacquiao, who has more power, speed, and arguably more skill than even Crawford.

With a career 43% KO percentage, Postol is hardly a feared power puncher but in his last three fights under Freddie Roach, Postol has been much more effective with his power, winning 2 or his last 3 fights by KO (vs. arguably the two toughest opponents of his career to date in Matthysse and Aydin). Postol is not a one-punch power puncher but is effective in wearing down his opponents with volume; I don't see Postol stopping Crawford but do think Postol has enough sneaky power to heavily frustrate Crawford if he stays busy and keeps Crawford at a distance with movement.

With his somewhat rare combination of height, reach, high-level skills, punch volume, and savvy ring movement, Postol has an unorthodox style that is difficult to prepare for and defend against. If Crawford is even slightly overrated - which I believe he is - Postol's style will expose Crawford fairly quickly and this will be a much, much closer fight than expected.

Prefight Analysis

I think Crawford is the better fighter overall and will probably win this fight. He is the more athletic, experienced fighter with advantages in versatility, power, and speed; as the fighter being heavily promoted by politically powerful boxing entities such as HBO Sports, Top Rank, etc. as a future superstar and with a potential Pacquiao/Crawford PPV megafight looming for early November, Crawford will likely win this fight on the judges' scorecards, even in the event of a close fight where Postol slightly outboxes him. Given how well Crawford's core fan base from Omaha travels and the fact that he is the American in this matchup with an entertaining, fan-friendly style, Crawford will also have the advantage of fighting in front of what should be an overwhelmingly pro-Crawford crowd in Las Vegas.

But even with these advantages (most notably the boxing politics, which in theory shouldn't be a factor but realistically has a good chance to be), I still give Postol a very realistic chance to win this fight. While I think Crawford is a fun to watch, highly skilled boxer, I think he's been a bit overrated in HBO's (in my view somewhat desperate) effort to find the next great American boxing superstar (and a superstar who can eventually replace Pacquiao as the network's next PPV cash cow). While not as athletic, I do believe Postol to be on Crawford's level in terms of skill and believe he has a difficult-to-solve combination of height, reach advantage, intelligent ring movement, and strong chin to highly frustrate even the usually unflappable Crawford.

The typically fast starting Postol will likely outwork the typically cautious, slow starting Crawford in the early rounds but I think Postol has the chin, stamina, and overall skills to win enough of the middle and late rounds to potentially steal a decision from the heavily favored Crawford. I think Crawford actually wins this matchup 65-75% of the time, but even at that win rate the nearly 5-1 odds you can get on Postol to win the fight (or better yet, the up to 7-1 odds for Postol to win the fight by decision) makes betting on Postol to win a very solid value bet.

While I think Postol by decision at 6.5-1 or 7-1 is a slightly stronger bet than Postol simply to win at nearly 5-1, 5-1 is high enough odds worth taking to mitigate the risk of a shocking stoppage of Crawford by the Ukrainian (which I don't see happening but, as he showed in his last fight vs. Matthysse, Postol is capable of wearing his opponents down with volume and has enough sneaky power in his right hand to catch a fatigued opponent late).

Postol is the best fighter Crawford has ever faced and is the first top-level fighter Crawford has fought that isn't undersized (and is actually naturally bigger than he is). Given his 3.5" reach advantage and own effective jab, Postol is perhaps the only fighter  at 140 lbs that can neutralize Crawford's typically highly effective jab game; if Postol keeps the fight at a distance and off the ropes with his reach advantage, he has a chance to come away with a decision on points by outworking Crawford with high punch volume.

Regardless of who wins this matchup, the chins on both fighters (neither Crawford or Postol have been stopped or knocked down in their professional careers, even though both have fought fighters with more power than what they're each facing tonight) are so solid that I think it's highly likely that this fight goes 12 rounds, making a bet on the fight to go 12 rounds at -160 odds perhaps the strongest bet. Even if Crawford performs better than I expect and is able to dominate and overwhelm Postol in the middle and late rounds, I still think Postol's foot movement, excellent chin, and ability to jab from distance will get him through 12 rounds without being stopped. As unflappable as Crawford typically is, Postol has displayed a similar lack of fluster under pressure (see rounds 6 and 7 of his fight with Matthysse).

Looking forward to this fight - very intriguing matchup that has potentially a myriad of ways to unfold!

Prediction: Crawford to win

Recommended bets: 1) Crawford/Postol goes full 12 rounds (1 unit)

2) Postol to win by decision (.5 unit)

3) Postol to win (.5 unit)

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Mayweather vs. Berto: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Floyd Mayweather Jr. (48-0, 26 KOs) vs. Andre Berto (30-3, 23 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 12, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World and WBA Super World Welterweight titles
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Mayweather -2400, Berto +1800 (5 Dimes, 9/12/15)
Purse: Mayweather: $32 million, Berto: $4 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Mayweather: #1 ranked pound-for-pound, Ring Magazine welterweight champion, Berto: Not ranked
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, Berto: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Mayweather opened in late July as a massive -7500 (1-75) favorite, with Berto initially listed as a 25-1 underdog. Public betting has since trended heavily in favor of Berto - likely because the initial odds were poor for potential Mayweather bettors (e.g., would have to bet $75 on Mayweather just to win $1), while 25-1 for a puncher like Berto may have been appealing to some. In the first few days of fight week, however, most of the betting has been on Mayweather. Mayweather is currently a strong -2400 favorite, with Berto as a +1800 (18-1) underdog.

Why Floyd Mayweather will win

By most objective measures, this fight is a clear mismatch. Mayweather is undefeated, widely considered the best boxer pound-for-pound in the sport and of this generation facing a fighter in Berto who is 3-3 in his last six fights and arguably not even one of the top 20 welterweights in the world currently.

Mayweather - possibly the most accurate and efficient fighter in the history of the sport - is vastly superior to the defensively suspect Berto in terms of skill and boxing IQ. Mayweather is expected to land cleanly and consistently as the fight progresses while there's a good chance Berto will have trouble getting into range vs. the longer, more mobile Mayweather.

Mayweather has a clear experience advantage over Berto; in his career he's already beaten at least a dozen boxers who were better fighters than Berto (including arguably every fighter he's fought since 2005) and has decisively beaten 2 out of the 3 fighters Berto has lost to (Robert Guerrero and Victor Ortiz). Berto on the other hand, has never beaten a A or even a B+-level fighter, with his best win coming in a closely contested matchup vs. Luis Collazo over five years ago.

Mayweather is a defensively gifted fighter who has the foot speed, reach advantage (4"), and stamina to elude Berto's dangerous combination of power and speed the same way he's eluded previous opponents who had more power and speed than Berto has. Berto is over six years younger than Mayweather but, at 31 years old and after multiple debilitating injuries (including a right shoulder injury that could have been career ending), his best years may be behind him. Berto has been a seemingly more cautious fighter since the shoulder injury a couple years ago, which he can't afford to be in tonight's fight vs. Floyd.

Berto did win his last fight via 6th round TKO in March vs. a respectable opponent in Josesito Lopez, but was actually behind on two out of the three judges' scorecards at the time of stoppage.

Lastly Mayweather, a Las Vegas resident, is fighting at home in the MGM Grand Garden Arena for the 12th consecutive time in front of a Mayweather-friendly referee (Kenny Bayless) on a card promoted by his promotional company (Mayweather Promotions) and in front of a crowd which may actually be pro-Mayweather (which is uncharacteristic for Mayweather fights) considering the relatively undistinguished opponent he's facing.

Why Andre Berto will win

A former two-time welterweight champion and current interim WBA welterweight champion, Berto is a puncher with the classic "puncher's chance." At 32 years old (6.5 years younger than Mayweather), he still actually has quite a bit of the explosive speed and power in both hands that he had five years ago as an undefeated (27-0) world champion. Berto is the naturally bigger and stronger fighter, possesses the mobility to stalk Mayweather, and is a good ambush-style fighter when he is on his game.

Berto is a tough competitor who is known for high action fights. He'll likely be willing to exchange with Mayweather and take the risks necessary to pull off the upset, even if it means exposing himself to numerous clean Mayweather counterpunches and a possible loss by stoppage.

Berto won't win this fight by decision (i.e., by outboxing the supremely-skilled Mayweather); he'll almost surely have to win this fight by stopping Mayweather. But if Berto - who has the strength and hand speed to match Mayweather - can stay busy and apply brute pressure on Floyd, he is more than capable of landing one of his patented power shots (most notably his right uppercut) to change the course of a fight expected to be dictated by Mayweather. Berto does have a solid left jab which, if used effectively, can be used to set up additional lines of attack vs. a typically risk-averse, retreating Mayweather. Mayweather is obviously still an elite fighter, but - at 38 - he's several years past his prime and is not as mobile as he once was; Berto may be capable of staying in front of Mayweather and applying the pressure necessary to at least make Floyd uncomfortable (e.g., Marcos Maidana in his first fight with Floyd, Ricky Hatton in the early rounds of his fight with Floyd).

Berto's current trainer, Virgil Hunter, is an excellent motivator who will at minimum have Berto mentally prepared to pull off what would be one of the biggest upsets in boxing history.

Prefight Analysis

Honestly, I don't see Berto being competitive in this fight. Yes, he has a "puncher's chance," but so did Pacquiao, Maidana, Canelo, and many of the other fighters Mayweather has fought over the past decade or so. But they all lost. And Berto - especially at this point in his career with the injuries and being 3-3 in his last 6 fights - isn't as good as *any* of the those other boxers Mayweather has fought over the past ten years.

Berto is literally a handpicked opponent for Mayweather in a fight that Mayweather is promoting as his last fight. Mayweather is, by a very wide margin, the more skilled, experienced fighter who possesses both the length and foot speed to stay out of range vs. Berto's inevitable pressure and the accuracy to punish the defensively deficient Berto with counterpunching over the entirety of the fight.

Unless Berto catches Mayweather with something early I don't see him being competitive, as he certainly won't outbox Floyd over 12 rounds; he doesn't cut the ring off as well as other pressure fighters who've fought Floyd like Maidana and Cotto, who at least had some limited success pressuring him in spots.

In my opinion, the only question in tonight's fight is whether Mayweather wins the fight by decision or by stoppage. There has been a lot of talk from boxing analysts - and even some from Mayweather himself - of Floyd going out with a stoppage victory in what is purportedly his last fight. But Mayweather has promised excitement and possible stoppages in previous recent fights only to resort to the risk-averse, defensive style that has served him well for most of his career.

The fact of the matter is, Mayweather is 38 years old and, other than a cheap (though perfectly legal) shot vs. Victor Ortiz four years ago when Ortiz had his guard down, Mayweather hasn't stopped anyone in nearly eight years. Mayweather is also a relatively low-volume puncher with notoriously brittle hands who is facing a guy in Berto who is actually bigger and stronger than he is.

Yes, a Mayweather victory by TKO/KO is possible due to the wide skill disparity in this matchup and Berto's defensive inadequacies, but I think given Mayweather's history of fighting conservatively and not exposing himself to significant risk, there is much more value in betting on Mayweather to win by (wide) decision.

Depending on the prices you can find, I feel that the best bet on this fight is Mayweather by unanimous decision, followed by Mayweather by 12-round decision. (I bet Mayweather by unanimous decision yesterday on 5Dimes at -145 but feel this bet actually has solid value up to -200.)

Prediction: Mayweather by unanimous decision (1 unit)

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Jack vs. Groves: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Badou Jack (19-1-1, 12 KOs) vs. George Groves (21-2, 16 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 12, 2015
Weight class: Super Middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Super Middleweight title
TV: Showtime PPV (Mayweather vs. Berto undercard)
Line: Jack +115, Groves -135 (5 Dimes, 9/8/15)
Purse: Jack: $500,000, Groves: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Jack: #6 ranked super middleweight, Groves: #3 ranked super middleweight
Style: Jack: Orthodox, Groves: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Groves opened in early August as the -180 favorite, with Jack as the +150 underdog. Public betting has since trended in favor of Jack - likely because he is coming off the best win of his career in winning a super middleweight title as a 4-1 underdog vs. then undefeated champion Anthony Dirrell and also probably because he is the more well-known name to the American betting public, fighting numerous times on Showtime under #1 pound-for-pound fighter Floyd Mayweather, Jr.'s boxing promotional firm, Mayweather Promotions. Groves is currently now only a -135 favorite, with Jack being only a +115 underdog.

Why Badou Jack will win

Jack is the current WBC World Super Middleweight champion. Jack is high in confidence after his last fight in April, a solid majority decision victory over then undefeated and WBC World Super Middleweight champion Anthony Dirrell. The victory was one of the better performances of Jack's career and is a strong sign Jack has fully recovered from his embarrassing 1st round TKO loss last year vs. journeyman Derek Edwards, who was a 14-1 underdog going into the fight. (The loss was the first and only loss of Jack's career.)

Jack has looked good in recent fights while Groves hasn't looked the same (in particular on the defensive end) since his two recent TKO losses to Carl Froch, looking less than impressive in his wins vs. relatively unknown journeymen Christopher Rebrasse and Denis Douglin.

Jack is a durable fighter while Groves has faded in the later rounds of some of his recent fights, including his two fights vs. Froch and his September 2014 fight vs. Rebrasse; Jack could conceivably outwork a tired Groves in the middle to later rounds in this fight similar to the way he outworked Dirrell in the later rounds of his most recent fight.

Jack is a solid, come-forward fighter with decent power. He pops a good jab and counters well with hooks which will be key vs. an aggressive - and at times defensively irresponsible - Groves.

Lastly, Jack is the more "politically connected" fighter in this matchup as he's promoted by Floyd Mayweather under Floyd's Mayweather Promotions banner and is arguably the best fighter promoted by Mayweather. Mayweather Promotions is promoting most of the featured fighters on the Mayweather/Berto undercard and I'd expect the close fights on the undercard to be at least slightly biased in favor fighters promoted by Mayweather. Jack also currently resides in and fights out of Las Vegas, while this is only Groves' third fight in the United States.

Why George Groves will win

Groves is the better boxer. Groves has the superior technical skills, power, hand and foot speed, overall athleticism, and is the more talented fighter. Groves is a classic boxer-puncher with notable power in both hands, knocking his opponents out at a 76% TKO/KO rate; Jack suffered a 1st round TKO loss just last year to a lesser skilled opponent with less power. Jack doesn't move particularly well and has a questionable chin; given the TKO loss to Edwards, losing by TKO/KO to Groves is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Despite being the younger fighter (by 4 years), the 27-year old Groves has a significant advantage in big fight experience over Jack, having fought top-level fighters such as Carl Froch (twice), James DeGale, and Glen Johnson. In May 2011, Groves beat current IBF Super Middleweight champion and former 2008 Olympic gold medalist DeGale by majority decision in the most impressive victory of his career. (This remains the only loss of DeGale's career.) By comparison, the only top-level fighter on Jack's resume is Anthony Dirrell.

Groves's two TKO losses to Carl Froch are the only losses of his career. Both were losses where Groves was arguably outboxing Froch before getting stopped in the later rounds. Jack doesn't have nearly the KO power Froch had so likely isn't a threat to KO Groves late like Froch did.

Prefight Analysis

Groves hasn't looked as good as expected in his recent fights since his two TKO losses to Froch, employing a more high-volume, aggressive strategy which allowed him to get countered cleanly in spots vs. much lesser fighters. A similar high punch volume strategy may not work vs. Jack - a strong, solid fighter who throws counter hooks well and possesses a good scoring jab which he may use in combination with his slight length advantage to control distance. Jack is a confident fighter riding high off the best win of his career last April vs. Dirrell. He's a more durable fighter than Groves (who has a history of waning in the later rounds) and I think there's a decent change that, in his adopted hometown of Las Vegas, he scores an upset victory by outworking Groves in the middle and later rounds the same way he outworked Dirrell after trailing on the scorecards early in that fight.

With this said, I think too many practical factors favor Groves to not to pick him to win the fight. Groves is the more talented fighter with the better skills, power, hand speed, and foot movement. He is the more experienced fighter who has fought on the big stage before (including in front of approximately 80,000 people at Wembley Stadium in his 2nd fight with Froch) vs. top-level opponents. Groves has previously defeated more accomplished opponents than Jack, namely James DeGale, a former Olympic gold medalist who has top 10-15 pound-for-pound talent. Groves, a good power puncher with a 76% TKO/KO rate, has the power to hurt a relatively flat-footed Jack early, and I think there is a reasonable chance he could win this fight by stoppage.

I think that despite Groves's recent unimpressive performances vs. lesser opponents and Jack's recent title victory momentum, Groves's clear skill and experience advantages should carry him to victory vs. Jack in the main event of the Mayweather/Berto undercard. Jack has never fought an opponent with Groves's combination of talent, skill, and power and I think this will show under the pressure of the big stage in Vegas. Groves is highly capable of winning this fight by stoppage  (likely early as opposed to late), though I think there is also a good chance he wins this fight by decision; so I think Groves simply to win at -135 is the best bet in this matchup.

Prediction: Groves to win (1 unit)

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Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Floyd Mayweather Jr. (47-0, 26 KOs) vs. Manny Pacquiao (57-5-2, 38 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 2, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC, WBO, and WBA Super World welterweight titles
TV: HBO and Showtime PPV (joint venture)
Line: Mayweather: -190, Pacquiao: +175 (5 Dimes, 5/2/15)
Estimated Earnings: Mayweather: $180 million, Pacquiao: $120 million (based on 60/40 split of estimated $300 million in revenues)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Mayweather: #1 ranked pound-for-pound, Ring Magazine welterweight champion and junior middleweight champion; Pacquiao: #3 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked welterweight
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, Pacquiao: Southpaw
Referee: Kenny Bayless


Positives for Mayweather
Negatives for Mayweather
Positives for Pacquiao
Negatives for Pacquiao
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Mayweather

• Current Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound fighter. Master technician who is one of the greatest boxers in the history of the sport. Has been ranked #1 pound-for-pound for much of the past decade and is widely considered one of the top two boxers - if not the top boxer - of this generation. Has won 10 world titles across 5 weight divisions. Future first ballot hall-of-famer and has yet to lose a fight (47-0 record). Current WBC, WBA, and Ring Magazine welterweight (147 lbs) champion, and WBC Super, WBA, and Ring Magazine junior middleweight (154 lbs) champion. 
• One of the great defensive fighters in the history of the sport. Excellent footwork, speed, and defensive techniques make him very difficult to hit cleanly. Mayweather has mastered the shoulder roll, pull counter, and a variety of other defensive techniques to the extent that his opponents consistently miss punches even when they have him pinned to a corner of the ring. Per CompuBox stats, Mayweather opponents land the 2nd lowest percentage of punches of all CompuBox-tracked boxers.  (Only opponents of Guillermo Rigondeaux land a lower percentage of punches.)
• Possibly the most accurate and efficient fighter in the history of the sport. Mayweather lands a higher % of punches thrown than any other CompuBox-tracked boxer. In terms of CompuBox statistics, Floyd has dominated nearly every fighter he's ever fought.
• Patient counterpuncher by nature who uses his speed and reflexes to make opponents miss before countering with an unpredictable assortment of straight right hands, jabs, and left hooks. Has a quick release which makes it extremely difficult for his opponents to time his punches. As great as Pacquiao's speed is, Floyd actually has superior hand and foot speed which should result in success in evading Pacquiao's power and beating Pacquiao to the punch when necessary. 
• Widely considered one of the smartest and fundamentally sound boxers in the history of the sport. Savvy, crafty fighter who is highly adept at reading his opponents and making technical adjustments over the course of the fight. Will have a clear advantage vs. Pacquiao in terms of both ring IQ and technical skill.  
• Experienced veteran fighting in his 25th world title fight (over half the fights in his career have been world title fights). The majority of opponents Mayweather has fought over the past eight years were ranked in the Ring Magazine top ten pound-for-pound at the time they fought Mayweather. Including the last two fights vs. Marcos Maidana, Mayweather's last 14 opponents were either current or former major titleholders at the time they fought Mayweather.
• Mayweather is usually the smaller man in the fight but will come into this fight vs. Pacquiao as the naturally bigger man. Will also have a significant (5") reach advantage which, when combined with his excellent foot movement, will make it difficult for Pacquiao to land punches consistently.
• Has an excellent chin. Has only officially been knocked down once in his career, a May 2001 fight vs. Carlos Hernandez where he took a knee in pain after breaking his left hand (due to a left hook which hit Hernandez's elbow). Has been hit flush by power punchers (most notably vs. Shane Mosley, Zab Judah, and Maidana) but always recovered to take control and dominate the remainder of the fight.
• Mayweather's power isn't great, particularly at welterweight, but is underrated. Mayweather does have 26 wins by TKO/KO in his career and opponents generally respect Mayweather's power due to the accuracy with which he lands punches. 
• Excellent at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Highly effective at using veteran tricks on the inside (e.g., timely use of his forearms and elbows to push opponents off) to create space while simultaneously landing clean punches. Throws very accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body. 
• Even at 38 years old is still in great shape and possesses excellent stamina; fights with as much energy in the later rounds of fights as the early rounds. Generally dominates the middle and later rounds of fights as his opponents tire.
• Two of the judges in the fight - Burt Clements and Dave Moretti - have judged multiple Mayweather fights in the past and generally turned in Mayweather-friendly scorecards. For example, Clements and Moretti scored the 1st Maidana fight 117-111 and 116-112 respectively for Mayweather while the third judge had the fight a draw. In the Mayweather vs. Hatton fight (December 2007), Clements and Moretti both had the fight scored 89-81 at the time of stoppage for Mayweather (giving Hatton only one of the first eight rounds), which was wider than most ring observers scored the fight. 
• For this fight Mayweather is working with noted strength coaches Alex Ariza (the former longtime strength and conditioning coach of Pacquiao) and Memo Heredia (the strength coach credited for increasing Juan Manuel Marquez's strength prior to his December 2012 KO victory of Pacquiao). It appears Mayweather is making a concerted effort to increase his strength for this fight, which certainly poses a threat to the at times defensively susceptible Pacquiao.

Negatives for Mayweather

• Although still widely considered the top boxer in the sport, Mayweather is 38 years old - several years past his prime - and doesn't have quite the power, speed, or legs he had when he was younger (though his power and speed actually haven't slipped as much as many think). In two out of Mayweather's last three fights (1st fight vs. Maidana and his September 2013 fight vs. Canelo Alvarez), one of the three judges scored the fight a draw. Both of Mayweather's recent fights vs. Maidana - in particular the 1st fight - were competitive fights, among the closest fights he's had since his controversial victory vs. Jose Luis Castillo in April 2002. Pacquiao is a more much more skilled, quicker, and faster opponent than Maidana so if Maidana was able to give Floyd problems, Pacquiao at minimum should have some stretches of success in the fight. 
• Mayweather has never fought a fighter with with Pacquiao's combination of unpredictability, power, and speed. There's a good chance Pacquiao's awkward punching angles and quick in and out movement will frustrate Mayweather, particularly in the early rounds as he tries to adjust to Pacquiao's tendencies. The last time Mayweather fought someone with speed comparable to Pacquiao (Judah in April 2006), he lost three out of the first four rounds of the fight. The last time Mayweather fought someone with both great power and footwork (Mosley), he was rocked multiple times in the early rounds with power shots. Mayweather will almost certainly have trouble in spots with Pacquiao's combination of good movement, power, and speed, especially considering that Pacquiao - like Mayweather - has excellent stamina and is unlikely to tire over the course of the 12 round fight.
• Mayweather is an efficient, but low-volume puncher who can get out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. This was certainly the case in his first fight vs. Maidana where Mayweather appeared to lose many of the early rounds (per CompuBox stats, Maidana outlanded Mayweather in 5 out of the first 6 rounds of the first fight), his fights vs. southpaws Judah and De La Hoya (where he arguably lost three out of the first four rounds in both fights), and vs. 9-1 underdog Robert Guerrero (where he arguably lost the first two rounds of the fight). Although Pacquiao has been a more cautious fighter as of late, I would expect Pacquiao to outwork Mayweather in the early rounds and wouldn't be surprised if Pacquiao is leading by multiple rounds early.
• Mayweather's primary defensive technique, the shoulder roll from an orthodox stance, won't be as effective  vs. an aggressive southpaw so he likely won't use it as much as he would vs. an orthodox fighter - which should leave him more vulnerable to clean punching.
• Mayweather has underrated power but he hasn't knocked down an opponent in over 3.5 years (September 2011 KO victory vs. Victor Ortiz when he caught an unsuspecting Ortiz with what many thought was a cheap shot). Mayweather's issues with power are in part due to having notoriously brittle hands, both of which he's broken multiple times over the course of his career. Although Pacquiao sometimes overcommits and leaves himself open to clean counterpunching, it is unlikely Mayweather wins this fight by TKO/KO due to his lack of KO power.
• Although fighting in his resident city of Las Vegas and in the MGM Grand Garden arena where he has fought his last 10 fights, the crowd is expected to be largely pro-Pacquiao, which should motivate Manny and could influence the judges' scoring. 

Positives for Pacquiao

• Current Ring Magazine #3 pound-for-pound fighter and WBO welterweight champion. Has won ten world titles across a record eight weight divisions. Although he has (arguably) slipped somewhat, Pacquiao is still unquestionably one of the elite fighters in the sport. Pacquiao still has much of the incredible hand speed and explosive power that made him a boxing icon. Future first ballot hall-of-famer who is alongside Floyd Mayweather as one of the top two fighters of this generation. 
• Aggressive "in and out" ambush fighter who is adept at moving "in" on his opponents and using his excellent hand speed to land clean, powerful combinations, then using quickness and foot speed to move "out" of range before his opponents can counter. Highly skilled with the use of feints and other deceptive movements to keep his opponents off guard. Although past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite speed and footwork; this will be the first time in Mayweather's career that he has fought an opponent with Pacquiao's unique combination of movement, power, and speed. Pacquiao has the speed and stamina to stay with the typically elusive Mayweather and the power from various angles to keep him frustrated and on the defensive throughout the fight.
• Pacquiao hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in 5.5 years (9 fights - his last TKO/KO win was 12th round TKO of Miguel Cotto in November 2009) but still has legitimate KO power in both hands. In his most recent fight, knocked down then undefeated and current WBO light welterweight champion Chris Algieri six times. Scored two knockdowns in his December 2012 fight vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and appeared on the verge of a KO victory before getting caught with a counter right hand near the end of the 6th round that ended the fight. Pacquiao's key advantage vs. Mayweather will be his power and threat to hurt him at any moment of any round during the fight.
• Unpredictable, tricky fighter who often throws punches from awkward angles, making it very difficult for even skilled defensive fighters (e.g., Mayweather) to anticipate where the punches are coming from - especially given the speed at which the punches are thrown. Manny's best punch is his straight left hand, which was especially effective for him in both fights vs. Timothy Bradley and his most recent fight vs. Algieri. 
• Although he has adopted a more cautious style in recent fights, Pacquiao is still a come-forward, relatively high-volume fighter who will likely outwork and perhaps display more effective aggression vs. the efficient but low-volume Mayweather throughout stretches of the fight. While Mayweather has a quickness advantage and can be expected to beat Pacquiao to the punch with potshots, Pacquiao is more adept at putting together quick combinations, which could look more impressive to the judges even if all the punches don't land cleanly. Pacquiao has a relentlessness and killer instinct that Mayweather doesn't have which may benefit him on the final scorecards.  
• Despite some defensive flaws, has excellent side-to-side head and upper body movement movement, which can make him difficult to hit cleanly. As noted above, has become a more cautious fighter in recent fights (i.e., has shown increased discipline defensively and doesn't overcommit with punches as much as he used to) so may be tougher for Mayweather to land punches than many may think.
• How much has Pacquiao really slipped over the past few years? The vast majority of boxing fans felt Pacquiao won both fights vs. Bradley convincingly. In his December 2012 fight vs. Marquez, Pacquiao was clearly winning the fight -  knocking Marquez down twice and appearing to be on his way towards a KO victory before Marquez ended the fight with a sneaky right hand. In Pacquiao's November 2013 fight vs. Brandon Rios, Pacquiao arguably won all 12 rounds. (One judge in the Rios fight did score all 12 rounds for Pacquiao.) And in his most recent fight vs. then undefeated world champion Algieri, Pacquiao thoroughly dominated in knocking Algieri down six times and winning arguably every round of the fight. 
• Highly experienced fighter whose defense and technical skills have improved over the years under hall-of-fame trainer Freddie Roach. Arguably outboxed Bradley in both of their fights and Marquez in their most recent fight despite taking losses in two out of the three fights. Despite slightly diminished power and speed is less reckless and displays higher boxing IQ now than he did in his prime. Pacquiao is certainly at a disadvantage in terms of technical skill and ring IQ vs. Mayweather but is a bit underrated in this regard. 
• Like Mayweather, Pacquiao has excellent stamina - even well past his prime at 36 years old. Does not tire in the later rounds of fights. Five of Pacquiao's six knockdowns in his most recent fight vs. Algieri came past the 5th round and Pacquiao pulled away from. then undefeated and Ring Magazine #3-ranked Bradley in the later rounds after a fairly even first half of the fight.
• As noted above the MGM Grand Garden arena will be a pro-Pacquiao crowd; partisan crowds can sometimes unintentionally influence judges' scorecards.
• Like Mayweather has performed best in his biggest fights. Am unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big money PPV fights.

Negatives for Pacquiao

• Pacquiao is 36 years old and, while still an elite fighter, has lost some of the power, speed, and quickness he had in his prime. Pacquiao has lost two out of his last five fights and hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over half a decade (9 fights). Generally, boxers who rely on hand speed, quickness, and other athletic abilities don't age as well as pure technical boxers (e.g., Mayweather). 
• Pacquiao is coming into this fight vs. Mayweather as the naturally smaller, shorter man with a 5" reach disadvantage. Pacquiao has in the past dominated boxers larger and taller than him (Antonio Margarito, Oscar De La Hoya, etc.) but the larger, taller opponent with comparable speed, longer reach, and superior boxing technique he is facing in Mayweather will likely be a much tougher task.   
• Pacquiao has never fought a boxer with the speed, accuracy, or technical skill of Mayweather. The closest Pacquiao has come to fighting a boxer resembling Mayweather is Timothy Bradley, who beat Pacquiao in a highly controversial split decision in their first fight and was very competitive with Pacquiao in their rematch, particularly in the early rounds. Mayweather is faster, more accurate, more skilled, and has more punching power than Bradley so will almost certainly be a much tougher test for Manny.
• Pacquiao is an excellent ambush fighter who boxes very well when coming towards his opponents but does not fight nearly as well when fighting backing up on his feet. Although primarily a counter puncher, Mayweather is known to sometimes turn into the aggressor and walk opponents down in the mid to later rounds once he's solved an opponent's timing (which he did with success most recently vs. the much bigger Canelo in their September 2013 fight).
• While Pacquiao's defense and ring IQ have improved over the years with Freddie Roach, Pacquiao is far from a defensive mastermind. Pacquiao's aggression and awkward punching style (where he at times overcommits to punches) often leaves him out-of-position, subjecting him to clean counter punching (as seen multiple times in his KO loss vs. Marquez and in the early rounds of his 2nd fight vs. Bradley). Pacquiao also isn't as mobile and doesn't roll with punches quite as well as he did in his prime. Mayweather is one of the great defensive fighters in boxing history; if he can get through the early rounds not too far behind on the scorecards he's more than capable - as Marquez did in multiple fights vs. Pacquiao  - of making the necessary adjustments to exploit Pacquiao's defensive flaws and overwhelm Manny in the middle to later rounds.
• Pacquiao's significant distractions outside the ring have been well-publicized. Pacquiao is a full-time Congressman in the Philippines when he's not boxing and, as a recently born-again Christian, has made numerous lifestyle changes. Pacquiao is also the (part-time) head coach and player for the Kia Sorentos, a basketball team in the Philippine Basketball Association, the top basketball league in the Philippines. Mayweather has appeared to be the more focused, serious fighter during training while Pacquiao is not always 100% focused due to outside distractions... it will be interesting to see if this plays into the outcome of tonight's fight. 

Prefight Summary

For many years I've thought this would be an easy fight for Mayweather. In Mayweather you have arguably the most dominant defensive fighter of all time - an elite technician with excellent speed and underrated power - vs. Pacquiao, an outstanding but at times overly aggressive fighter with flaws in some of boxing's basic fundamentals which include defensive holes a master boxer like Mayweather could exploit with little effort. If Marquez, a fighter Mayweather had no trouble with even after a nearly two-year layoff from the sport, could give Pacquiao all he could handle over the course of four fights (some would say Marquez won three or even all four fights) with effective counter punching and timing, then why wouldn't Mayweather - a bigger, stronger, quicker, and more skilled counter puncher than Marquez - be able to dominate Pacquiao the same way he did Marquez? Floyd's skills also compare very favorably to Erik Morales, who beat Pacquiao decisively in their first fight with accurate counter punching and timing.

But styles make fights. While not possessing the same overall counter punching skill as Mayweather, Marquez and Morales (and to some extent Tim Bradley in his competitive fights vs. Pacquiao) were *aggressive*, higher volume counter punchers who were willing to take risks vs, Pacquiao that Mayweather is likely not willing to take. Marquez was knocked down six times by Pacquiao over four fights before the payoff KO victory in the 6th round of their most  recent fight. Morales and Bradley had success counter punching in many spots due to a willingness to stand in and trade vs. Pacquiao's feared combination of speed and power. Albeit more skilled and likely more adept to counter Pacquiao's over-aggressiveness and defensive flaws, Mayweather is a low-risk, low punch volume counter puncher compared to Marquez, Morales, and Bradley. Mayweather is far less willing to stand in and exchange punches with Pacquiao - which could be to his detriment on the judges' final scorecards.

Pacquiao will likely be the aggressor in the early rounds, coming forward and throwing his usual straight lefts and combinations while the more cautious Mayweather lays back and tries to figure out Pacquiao's timing. Besides Zab Judah (who won three out of the first four rounds in his fight with Mayweather), Pacquiao is the only fighter Mayweather has fought with comparable speed to his own. Pacquiao's speed combined with his elite power and awkward punching style will likely frustrate Mayweather early, if not throughout the entire fight. There is a reasonable chance the aggressive, high punch volume Pacquiao will outwork Mayweather and make his combination flurries (whether they actually land cleanly or not) look good enough that the judges score the fight for Pacquiao. Note also that part of Mayweather's success in mid to late rounds is that his opponents often tire in the 2nd half of fights; this won't be the case with Pacquiao (given his excellent stamina) so we could see an entire 12-round fight of Manny throwing punches with the low-volume Mayweather on his back foot throwing little in return - a scenario which could very easily result in a clear decision victory for Pacquiao.

But at the end of the day I think Mayweather has too many advantages in this matchup for Pacquiao to overcome. Mayweather is the bigger, stronger, smarter fighter with the significant reach advantage, better foot movement, and overall superior skill. Pacquiao has always been able to overcome bigger, stronger fighters with his unique combination of power and speed but Floyd should largely be able to neutralize Pacquiao's strengths with his own speed, reach, and defensive skills. Like Marquez and Morales in their wins vs. Pacquiao, I see Mayweather developing a timing on Manny as the fight progresses; he will compel Pacquiao to become over-aggressive in spots and to overcommit with punches - which should provide Mayweather the opportunity to land clean counter punches. Once Mayweather figures Pacquiao out, Pacquiao will find it difficult to land punches; unlike Mayweather Manny doesn't have the skill to re-adjust to Mayweather's adjustments down the stretch. Pacquiao generally makes up for his deficiencies in technical skill (e.g., vs. technically sound fighters like Marquez) with superior speed and athleticism but these qualities will be of little avail in this fight vs. the faster, more athletic Mayweather.

If this fight comes down to a preference of styles (i.e., Pacquiao's high volume and aggression vs. Mayweather's efficient, accurate punching) one very important point to consider is that two of the judges in this fight - Dave Moretti and Burt Clements - have in previous Mayweather fights scored the fights wider than expected in favor of Mayweather, an indication that they may prefer his accuracy and precision over high-volume activity that may or may not land cleanly.

I do think this fight could go either way - especially if Mayweather is in front of Pacquiao more than expected and lets Pacquiao outwork him - but I think Mayweather will be able to neutralize Pacquiao's advantages in power and punching volume with accuracy and timing and by utilizing his clear physical advantages en route to a competitive but clear decision victory. If there does happen to be a knockout in this fight I think it's much more likely the KO punch comes from the more precise Mayweather than from Pacquiao, would be looking to knockout an opponent who has only been knocked down once in his nearly 20 year career.

In any case, we can only hope and pray this fight lives up to the unprecedented hype!!!
   

Prediction: Mayweather by decision 

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Broner vs. Molina: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Adrien Broner (29-1, 22 KOs) vs. John Molina Jr. (27-5, 22 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: March 7, 2015
Weight class: Junior welterweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: NBC
Line: Broner -650, Molina +535 (5 Dimes, 3/7/15)
Purse: Broner: $1.25 million, Molina: $450,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Broner: #7 ranked welterweight, Molina: Not ranked
Style: Broner: Orthodox, Molina: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd


Positives for Broner
Negatives for Broner
Positives for Molina
Negatives for Molina
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Broner

• Former 3-time world champion in three different weight divisions (super featherweight, lightweight, and welterweight). At 23 years old, was the youngest boxer in history to be a world champion in three different divisions when he won the WBA welterweight championship vs. Paulie Malignaggi in 2013. Has been ranked as high as #6 in the Ring Magazine's pound-for-pound rankings. A top-level talent with the potential for a hall-of-fame career.
• 25-year old fighter in the prime of his career with excellent agility and hand speed combined with very good power. Slick, skilled technician who is adept with both counter punching and come-forward aggression. Good at cutting off the ring vs. opponents.
• Has a 29-1 record, with his lone loss being a December 2013 unanimous decision loss to Marcos Maidana. Has defeated former world champions such as Malignaggi, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Antonio DeMarco, and Gavin Rees - all tougher and more skilled opponents than Molina. In defeating DeMarco, defeated the then #1 lightweight contender who had beat Molina by 1st round TKO a couple months earlier in September 2012.
• Is low-volume at times, but is a very efficient, accurate puncher with good KO power in both hands (22 of his 29 wins have come by KO.) Has an effective jab and is a very good combination puncher.
• Despite his showing vs. Maidana, has overall solid defensive skills. Adept with both the shoulder roll and high guard defense. Slips and rolls punches fairly well in the pocket and is generally a difficult boxer to hit cleanly. 
• Very good at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Throws accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body.
• Is by far the superior athlete in this fight with superior technical skills and boxing IQ. Has the ability to make technical adjustments in the ring over the course of a fight. Precise puncher with much quicker reflexes than Molina so should be able to consistently beat Molina to the punch.
• Although he has frequently displayed immature antics both inside and outside the ring, Broner appears to have matured and noticeably toned down his antics in recent months.

Negatives for Broner

•  Has been exposed as a possibly overrated boxer in recent fights. Although he's beaten multiple former world champions, Broner may not be ready to contend vs. true top-level competition. In Broner's toughest test, he was decisively beaten (including getting knocked down twice) by Marcos Maidana, a pressure fighter with very good power but somewhat limited boxing skill relative to Broner. Molina is also a pressure fighter with very good power and limited boxing skill; if Broner doesn't use his feet he could get caught the same way he was caught multiple times vs. Maidana. In addition to the Maidana loss was unimpressive in both his May 2014 unanimous decision victory vs. Carlos Molina (where a knockout was expected) and his surprisingly close (though entertaining) unanimous decision victory vs. Emmanuel Taylor last September.    
• Low-volume puncher who is prone to getting out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. (Given his issues with fitness and making weight, Broner's low volume may be indicative of a stamina problem.) In five of Broner's last six fights, Broner has fallen behind in early rounds - even against clearly inferior competition.
• While Broner has good foot speed, his wide-legged stance tends to leave him flat-footed in the ring. Broner's resulting lack of mobility makes it easier for opponents to exert pressure and land scoring punches against him, even if those punches aren't landing cleanly.  
• Broner has fairly good defensive skills, but his defense does contain flaws, as clearly seen in his loss vs. Maidana. Broner is flat-footed and prefers to block punches with his hands and high guard rather than utilize foot movement. Broner's somewhat stationary defensive style provided ample opportunity for a power puncher like Maidana (and perhaps a power puncher like Molina in tonight's fight) to tee off and land big shots. Molina was able to catch heavily favored and previously undefeated fighters Hank Lundy and Mickey Bey - both of whom are more mobile than Broner - late in fights to win by TKO/KO so could conceivably catch Broner as well. 
• Broner's power at lighter weights hasn't carried up to the junior welterweight (140 lbs) and welterweight (147) divisions. Broner scored a TKO/KO victory in 22 out of his first 27 fights when fighting below 140 lbs (including a stretch of 16 out of 17 fights by TKO/KO) but has not scored a victory by TKO/KO in any of his last four fights, which have all been fought at 140 or 147. Molina is a big junior welterweight with a good chin, so tough to envision Broner getting the TKO/KO victory here.
• Has shown a lack of discipline in certain aspects of the fight game. Is generally overweight and out-of-shape when not training for fights, which often results in him having trouble making weight. (Broner has failed to make weight for multiple fights, including tonight's fight vs. Molina.) He's displayed unprofessional and immature behavior both inside and outside the ring and at times has even ignored his corner's instructions (most notably after falling behind on the scorecards vs. Maidana).  

Positives for Molina

• Former WBC USNBC and WBO NABO lightweight champion. Relatively tall, lanky pressure fighter with very good power in both hands - especially his right hand which has single-handedly earned him late round TKO/KO victories vs. heavily favored opponents who decisively outboxed him in the earlier rounds. 22 out of Molina's 27 wins (including his last 14 wins) have come by TKO/KO. Is a big boxer for 140 lbs and will have a size, height, and reach advantage vs. Broner.
• Patient, low-volume brawler; prefers to block his opponents' punches with his high guard from the inside and counter punch with power shots. Is selective with his punches but has legitimate one-punch KO power. Good body puncher who loops his punches from unpredictable angles. (Broner's lone loss was to Maidana who, like Molina, is a come-forward power punching brawler who can throw punches, in particular the overhand right, from unpredictable angles.)
• Despite having 5 losses on his record (including his last two fights) and having never won a world title, Molina is a respected and feared lighweight due to his punching power. Molina's signature punch is his overhand right, but he also has a devastating left hook. Used his punching power to shock previously undefeated and heavily favored fighters Hank Lundy and Mickey Bey in late rounds, as well as knock down highly regarded lightweight Lucas Matthysse twice in a thrilling fight that won nearly every Fight of the Year award for 2014. 
• Durable fighter with a good chin and very good stamina. One of only five fighters (out of 39) to make either it into the 11th round or last the entire fight vs. Matthysse.
• Determined boxer who fights with tremendous heart. Coming off of two straight losses, will be highly motivated to win this fight and retain his status as a spoiler for top-level opposition. Molina has considered retirement in the recent past and knows that a loss here could be the beginning of the end for his career.

Negatives for Molina

• There is a reason why Molina is not a ranked junior welterweight and has never won a world title. Skillwise, Molina is a limited fighter - a one dimensional brawler with slow reflexes, low boxing IQ, and lack of solid fundamentals likely attributable to the fact that he didn't start boxing until he was 17. Molina has consistently been outboxed by even decent B-level fighters, with his best wins coming as a result of what could be considered lucky punches in the late rounds of fights his opponents got complacent in due to being way ahead on the scorecards. Broner will be the most skilled and talented fighter Molina has fought in a career where he's already lost decisively to lesser fighters. 
• Has lost four out of his last seven fights, including his last two - all vs. opponents not as skilled as Broner. Molina's lone title fight was a first round TKO loss in September 2012 vs. Antonio DeMarco, an opponent Broner defeated two months later by 8th round TKO.
• Some will point to Broner's loss to Maidana as a possible blueprint for Molina pulling of the upset vs. Broner. Like Maidana, Molina is also an aggressive power puncher. Molina, however, is a low-volume counter puncher (in contrast to Maidana's high volume, lead puncher style) and is not nearly as skilled as Maidana.
• Molina is a defensively suspect brawler who, due to slow hand speed and reflexes, is generally easy to hit and beat to the punch. Although he's only been a pro for 9 years, at 31 years old Molina has been in some brutal wars (most notably the Matthysse fight) that have likely taken a physical toll on him. 31 isn't necessarily old but the boxing lifespan of a brawler with limited defense is generally much shorter than the lifespan of other boxers. 
• Although Molina has a good chin, he has been stopped twice in the past 2.5 years. The stoppages came at the hands of the two best opponents Molina has fought to date - DeMarco and Matthysse. 

Prefight Summary

John Molina has a puncher's chance in every fight he's in. Despite his limited skill, Molina did find a way to stay very competitive last year in his thriller vs. Lucas Matthysse, one of the most feared power punchers in boxing. He did find a way to beat heavily-favored blue-chip contenders Mickey Bey (the current IBF lightweight champion of the world and considered by many the best fighter under the Mayweather Promotions imprint other than Floyd himself) and Hank Lundy by TKO/KO in the late rounds of fights he was losing decisively. Both Bey and Lundy utilize foot movement more than the relatively flat-footed Broner, who is often content to stay in the pocket within range of his opponent to pick off punches. Broner has quicker reflexes and better defense than Bey or Lundy but if Molina can land the right shot (i.e., land one of his flush overhand rights on Broner), then Molina could be well on his way to replicating Maidana's upset of Broner in 2013 and scoring by far the biggest win of his career on primetime national TV. I actually think Molina would be well served to take risks in this fight with the intent of knocking Broner out; Molina has a good chin and was able to last 11 rounds vs. the most feared puncher at 140 lbs in Matthysse so I'd expect he'll be able to go the distance vs. Broner, whose power hasn't translated nearly as much at 140 lbs as it had in lower weight divisions.

Despite the threat of Molina's power, the disparity in talent, speed, and skill between Broner and Molina is just too much to overlook. Molina has been thoroughly outboxed by much lesser boxers than Broner; I see no reason why - other than a lucky punch from Molina - an A-level talent such as Broner wouldn't be able to dominate Molina the same way solid B-level boxers generally have. Especially with the speed disparity, I don't see a low-volume puncher like Molina catching Broner, even with Broner's flat-footed tendencies. I see Broner easily picking off Molina's shots and countering with precise power shots of his own that, over the course of several rounds, could even result in a surprising stoppage.

But, given Molina's sturdy chin and the fact that Broner's knockout power in lower weight divisions hasn't translated well to higher weights, I like Broner by wide unanimous decision. The only thing preventing Broner from an easy victory here is the same sort of carelessness defensively Molina was able to take advantage of late in his fights vs. Bey and Lundy.

Prediction: Broner by decision 

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