Fury vs. Wilder III: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Tyson Fury (30-0-1, 21 KOs) vs. Deontay Wilder (42-1-1, 41 KOs) 

Location:  T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: October 9, 2021
Weight class: Heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World heavyweight title
TV/Stream: ESPN/FOX PPV
Line (Bovada): Fury: -275, Wilder: +215   (10/9/21)
Purse: Fury: $6 million, Wilder: $4 million (base salary; Fury will be guaranteed at least $30 million, while Wilder will be guaranteed at least $20 million based upon the contracted 60/40 split for the 3rd fight, not including percentages of PPV profits)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Fury: Ring Magazine heavyweight champion, Wilder: #3 ranked heavyweight 
Style: Fury: Orthodox, Wilder: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Wilder wins this fight. Fight fans talk all the time about "puncher's chance." Wilder might actually be the best example in the history of boxing of a fighter who always has a puncher's chance with his historically great punching power that I think gives him a legitimate shot to beat anyone put in front of him - including the objectively more skilled Fury who's arguably won as many as 17 of the 19 rounds they've fought in their two previous fights. 

Wilder will be coming off the longest layoff of his career but Fury himself will be coming off his 2nd longest layoff - a nearly 20-month layoff during the latter part of which he caught COVID (reportedly suffering mild breathing and congestion issues as a result) and most recently had to also deal with the huge disappointment  of losing a potentially massive payday in a future unification bout with Anthony Joshua is what would've been the biggest fight in the history of UK boxing. (Two weeks ago, the favored Joshua lost his WBA, IBF, and WBO heavyweight titles to undefeated Ukrainian Olexandr Usyk; a victory by Joshua vs. Usyk followed by a Fury win tonight would've set the stage for a Joshua/Fury matchup in 2022 for the undisputed heavyweight championship in which Fury would've been the favorite. Paydays were expected to approach $100 million for each fighter in that matchup.)  

Will a fighter notorious for his unpredictability and at times (given his diagnosed bipolar disorder) lack of mental instability), coming off an extended layoff where he had to recover from COVID and experience the disappointment of losing a possible career-defining fight vs. Joshua be sufficiently motivated to beat a fighter he already feels he beat twice? (The first fight between Fury and Wilder in 2018 was officially scored a draw, though most felt Fury outboxed Wilder in that matchup.) Wilder comes into this fight seeking revenge for the embarrassing TKO loss in their February 2020 rematch - one gets the impression Wilder wants this more and has much more to lose career-wise than Fury in tonight's matchup. Despite the loss to Fury in their previous fight, Wilder seems extremely confident and determined to win - it wouldn't surprise me at all if he puts everything together and pulls off the stoppage... as he came within a fraction of a second of doing in the final round of their first fight.

But I think - as he's already demonstrated in the clear majority of the 19 rounds he's faced Wilder in their two previous fights - Fury's skills will be too much for Wilder to overcome. Since he beat Vladimir Klitschko in 2015, I've felt Fury is the best heavyweight of this generation (i.e., better than even prime Klitschko and the best heavyweight fighter since Lennox Lewis). Fury mostly outboxed Wilder in their first fight, then made adjustments to more effectively utilize his advantages in size and strength to completely dominate the slightly favored Wilder in last year's rematch. Wilder is renowned for his punching power, but not so much for his technical boxing skills or ability to make adjustments. Even with his new trainer, Malik Scott, I seriously doubt Wilder's ability to effectively make adjustments vs. a supremely-skilled heavyweight like Fury. Wilder failed to make adjustments in his previous fight vs. Fury (losing the first 6 rounds on 2 of the 3 judges' scorecards before getting stopped in the 7th) and even failed to make adjustments in his fight prior to that - his rematch vs. Luis Ortiz where he also arguably lost every round in that fight before stopping Ortiz in the 7th. 

Wilder is a predictable, relatively basic boxer who had trouble landing punches on Fury in both previous fights, landing only 16.5% of his attempted punches in their first fight and a still very low 24.1% in their rematch where Fury fought more aggressively coming forward. Wilder's punch output has also (noticeably) declined in recent fights. There's nothing in Wilder's previous fights - in particular the rematches he's already had vs. Fury and Ortiz - that makes me think he can make the adjustments necessary to have more than a puncher's chance of beating Fury. Wilder's nature is to fight one way (behind the punching power in his right hand); at 35 years old and arguably a bit past his prime, that's highly unlikely to change in a way that will be effective vs. perhaps the best heavyweight fighter of this generation. 

I think Fury, as he's indicated several times in recent pre-fight interviews, will be as aggressive and physical as he was in the last fight and aim for another early round stoppage of Wilder. Wilder, having full confidence in his own power and seeing how Fury bullied through his cautious approach in their rematch, will at some point in tonight's fight - probably early in the fight - feel he has no choice but to reciprocate Fury's aggression and come out swinging. 

While Wilder will likely be more prepared for Fury's tactics this time around, I don't see this fight going the distance - I see a stoppage one way or the other in the early to middle rounds. Most likely, Fury will be able to - as he did in the last fight - use his superior size, jab, movement, and overall skill advantage to outphysical and outwit Wilder to earn another TKO/KO victory. Fury's increased aggression will of course leave him more susceptible to Wilder's power, so it's certainly well within the range of possibility it's Wilder who gets the stoppage this time around.

Given the pricing of Fury as a (roughly) -300 betting favorite, I feel the bet with the most value as of now is the under 7.5 rounds (which can currently be found around even money odds), with a smaller bet on Fury to win by TKO/KO/DQ (which can also be found at around even money odds) also being worthwhile. The main fight could certainly go either way but very much looking forward to the all-heavyweight PPV card tonight!

Prediction: Fury to win

Recommended bets: 1) Under 7.5 rounds (bet to WIN .5 unit) 2) Fury to win by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to WIN .25 unit)

Wilder vs. Fury II: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Deontay Wilder (42-0-1, 41 KOs) vs. Tyson Fury (29-0-1, 20 KOs)
Location:  MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: February 22, 2020
Weight class: Heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World heavyweight title
TV/Stream: ESPN/FOX PPV
Line (5 Dimes): Wilder: -131, Fury: +121  (12/20/20)
Purse: Wilder: $5 million, Fury: $5 million (though both will be guaranteed at least $25 million each, not including percentages of PPV profits)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Fury: #1 ranked heavyweight
Style: Wilder: Orthodox, Fury: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

I've found it (mildly) surprising that a clear majority of boxing experts/sharps - including quite a few who picked Fury to win the first fight and actually thought he won that fight despite the fight being scored a draw - are picking Wilder to win by TKO/KO in the rematch. Indeed, Wilder by TKO/KO *might* be the most likely of all specific outcomes so might - especially at well above even money odds (currently +125 at 5Dimes) - be the best bet on this fight. As noted (perhaps ad nauseam) in the massive Fox/ESPN promotion for the fight, Deontay Wilder might have the hardest single punch in the *history* of boxing with his straight right hand. Wilder has the highest TKO/KO percentage in heavyweight boxing history (95.4%) and has either knocked out or knocked down every fighter he's ever faced in his professional career, including knocking Fury down twice in the last four rounds of their first fight. 

Wilder - who took up boxing relatively late at 20 years old - is actually a still-improving fighter who has shown noticeable improvement in most of his recent fights in particular. Wilder's improvement is reflected in the fact that in each of his two previous rematches (vs. Bermane Stiverne in November 2017 and Luis Ortiz in 2019), Wilder was able to finish his opponent faster in the rematch than he was in the first fight; it certainly stands to reason that there's a very good chance Wilder could look similarly impressive in tonight's rematch vs. Fury.

To his credit, Wilder did  make the necessary adjustments  - in the last four rounds of his first fight vs. Fury - to his punch trajectory that enabled him to knock Fury down twice and almost stop him in the 12th round. It stands to reason that Wilder's successful adjustments (which speak to at least a partial "figuring out" of Fury's defensive movement) will carry over into the rematch.

The fact that Fury just three months ago switched trainers (from Ben Davidson to the Kronk Gym's SugarHill Steward) for tonight's rematch might also be of concern to Fury supporters, as it typically takes time for even experienced, elite boxers to adjust to a new trainer (though Fury is familiar with Steward from having previously trained under his uncle Emmanuel Steward many years ago at the same gym). All indications are that the switch in trainers was made to implement a more aggressive, come-forward attack strategy vs. Wilder with the hopes of beating Wilder by knockout; this could very well prove to be a foolhardy strategy vs. one of the hardest punchers in the history of boxing as it perhaps will do little more than increase Fury's own chances of getting knocked out himself.

Furthermore, Fury weighing in for this fight at 273 pounds - 16.5 pounds heavier than he weighed in his first fight with Wilder - could render him less able to be as mobile and elusive as he likely will need to be at certain points of the fight, particularly in the late stages where he was knocked down twice in the previous fight vs. Wilder. (Despite the draw, Fury won the first fight in most people's eyes largely by employing his typical rangy, pot shot-from-distance style with constant movement that helped him mostly avoid Wilder's knockout punches for *most* of the fight.)

I did pick Wilder to win by TKO/KO in the first fight, though that was nearly entirely because I felt Fury took that fight too soon after a 2.5 year layoff  - a layoff riddled with mental health and substance abuse issues, as well as a near 150-pound weight gain - and not having fought any world-class competition in the months in the months leading up to that fight to prep himself. It seems even more boxing experts (including gambling "sharps" generally sharper at picking fights than myself) are picking Wilder to win by TKO/KO in tonight's rematch.

But despite all the concerns I've detailed above - including the recent trainer change and weight gain coming in to tonight's fight - I'm going to go against what seems to be the sentiment of most boxing experts and stick with my months-old (since the rematch was announced last Spring) prediction  that Tyson Fury will win his rematch with Wilder (and will win in likely decisive fashion).

Despite all the concerns I've noted above, at the end of the day Fury is the better-skilled, smarter, defensively-sharper, overall superior boxer who - by most boxing observers' estimation - decisively outboxed Wilder in their first fight, outside of the two rounds in the fight where he was knocked down. Yes, Wilder has proven himself to be one of the better knockout artists in boxing history, but I firmly believe the 12th-round knockdown in the first fight was more the result of Fury getting careless and believing he already had the fight won. (According to the official judges' scorecards, Fury would indeed have won the fight by split decision if he hadn't gotten knocked down in the last round). I see Fury ramping up his focus in the rematch and finding a way through his superior guile and fighting abilities - whether it be using his reach advantage and footwork to outbox Wilder from distance as he did in the first fight or using his size advantage and increased weight to impose his physicality on the inside as he's claimed he might do in the lead-up to the fight - to avoid the knockout punches he suffered when he got careless in the late stages of the first fight and box his way to a decisive victory.

One oft-repeated mantra of boxing is that in rematches between a boxer and a puncher, it is generally the (more fundamentally skilled) boxer who performs better in the rematch, as the boxer is typically more equipped to make the tactical adjustments necessary to more decisively outbox the puncher (given that the puncher is typically less diverse in terms of the range of his fighting abilities). Many are of the belief that it will actually be Wilder who performs better in tonight's fight, given that he did make adjustments in the late stages of the previous fight and given his history of improvement in rematches - as well as the room he has as a still somewhat raw fighter to improve in comparison to Fury, who many felt fought about as well as he could fight in the first match, yet still only earned a draw. But I think the boxer-over-puncher in rematches mantra will hold up in this fight (as it's more often than not held up in similar situations) and think Fury has trained to exploit the flaws in Wilder that he realized from the first fight (which is likely at least partly reflected in his decision to change trainers and come into this fight over 15 pounds heavier).

So I'm taking the superior boxer (Fury) to outbox and outwit the superior puncher (Wilder) in the rematch. While I think Fury most likely wins by decision, I prefer the bet of Fury simply to win (which can currently be had at +110 or better) given Fury's stated strategy of going into the fight with the purpose of trying to knock Wilder out in the early rounds (a strategy which is evidenced by Fury's trainer change and coming into this rematch at a heavier weight). I'm partially hedging the bet with a bet on the under 10.5 rounds (which I got early in the week at +110 but can still be had for around -115); this bet covers most scenarios where Wilder knocks Fury out but also covers most scenarios where Fury actually pulls off what it seems he's going into the fight with the full intention of doing - knocking Wilder out.

Lastly, I'd like to note that I largely view the Wilder vs. Fury rematch - both in the promotion of the fight and in the actual fight itself - as a (very well-played) game of optics; for the fight itself these "optics" I think have swayed even some boxing experts to the Wilder side of the ledger.

Optics present Wilder/Fury II as a megafight; one of the most anticipated heavyweight fights of this generation and perhaps the most anticipated heavyweight fight since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson back in 2002. But the reality is this fight might be the most over-promoted fight in the 100+ year history of boxing. The massive multi-million dollar, dual-network promotion invested in this fight belies the fact that the first Wilder/Fury fight only did 325,000 PPV buys and that both fighters have had disappointing ratings in *all* the fights they've appeared in since that first fight. Neither Wilder or Fury's name carries mainstream cache (the majority of Americans don't even know who they are) and as of right now just a few hours prior to the fight, there are still numerous tickets available for the fight in an arena with a capacity of approximately 17,000 for boxing events. As of now, neither fighter even has a solid hall-of-fame resume (though Wilder's is perhaps borderline); in sum, one would be very hard-pressed to believe the actual caliber of this fight comes even close to matching the promotional resources invested into it.

Wilder's knockdowns, most notably his dramatic knockdown of Fury in the 12th round of their previous fight, provide impressive optics for those who might otherwise have been inclined to believe Fury would win the rematch. The reality is, Fury did avoid Wilder's power for nearly the entire fight and - in my opinion - likely only got caught in the 12th round after getting careless thinking he had the fight won.

Wilder's "swagger" (for lack of a better term at this moment,) is yet another impressive optic. Coming from a family of preachers, Wilder was blessed with a gift of gab and exudes extreme amounts of confidence - not only in how he expresses himself verbally but in his overall demeanor. At the end of the day, Wilder has always gotten the job done in the ring. But I do also think the swagger, confidence, and optics of his knockdowns have overstated his actual abilities a bit and think he's been a bit overrated (by casual fans and boxing experts alike) as a result. While expressed differently, I do believe Fury has a comparable level of confidence and self-belief as Wilder to match his superior skills and believe that will show clearly in tonight's fight.

Prediction: Fury to win

Recommended bets: 1) Fury to win (bet to RISK 1 unit) 2) Wilder/Fury under 10.5 rounds (risk .5 unit)

Canelo vs. Rocky Fielding: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (50-1-2 34 KOs) vs. Rocky Fielding (27-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 15, 2018
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBA (Regular) World Super middleweight title
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line: Alvarez: -1600, Fielding: +1050 (5 Dimes, 12/14/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #3 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion [Alvarez is not ranked at super middleweight], Fielding: #9 ranked super middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Fielding: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

On American soil, Canelo Alvarez is (by far) the top PPV attraction in boxing today, with his last three fights over the past year and a half - his two most recent vs. Gennady Golovkin and another in May 2017 vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. - each selling over 1 million PPV buys. (Canelo's fights vs. Golovkin and Chavez Jr. had the highest PPV buy rates for boxing matches not involving Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson in 2002.)

But this past October, Canelo (supported by his promoter - the Oscar De La Hoya-backed Golden Boy Promotions) exited the traditional PPV model - which reportedly earned him well over $20 million for each of the aforementioned fights - to sign a 5-year, 11-fight contract worth at least $365 million with sports streaming service DAZN, the largest contract for a single athlete in sports history. Canelo's fight this Saturday vs. WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding will be Canelo's first fight since signing that contract and will be the first PPV-level fight DAZN has ever produced in the United States.

Right now, Canelo is on top of the boxing world. He's arguably the most popular fighter in the sport. He's coming off of the most high profile, biggest fight of the year and what was by far the biggest win of his career in his majority decision upset victory over at-the-time undefeated and Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound-ranked unified middleweight champion Golovkin - a fight in which Canelo secured his status as a Mexican boxing legend and future first ballot hall-of-famer. Although the scoring of the fight was highly controversial - most observers felt the fight was either a draw or that Canelo lost a close decision - Canelo's impressive performance largely cooled previous rampant suspicions of illegal performance-enhancing drug use by the Mexican fighter as he tested clean numerous times in the days and weeks leading up to the fight.

At just 28 years old, Canelo is still in the middle of his prime and has arguably still not yet even reached his peak as - including even both fights vs. Golovkin -  Canelo has improved with each fight since his lone loss in 2013 to Floyd Mayweather Jr. and is still seemingly getting better. Canelo is currently the Ring Magazine #3 ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world but on Saturday night will make his claim as #1 as he moves up to super middleweight to fight at 168 lbs for the first time in his career in an attempt to become the fifth Mexican fighter win a major world title in at least 3 weight divisions (Julio Cesar Chavez Sr., Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Jorge Arce).

Canelo will be making his debut on DAZN this Saturday night at Madison Square Garden vs. current WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding. Rocky is a British fighter who will be making his first defense of his super middleweight title after upsetting formerly undefeated champion Tyron Zeuge by 5th-round TKO in Zeuge's home country of Germany this past July. (Rocky entered the fight vs. Zeuge at as high as a 5-1 underdog.)

Rocky lacks experience, having not fought many top-level boxers other than Callum Smith - who he lost to in 2015 by 1st-round TKO. But since the loss to Smith - the only loss of his career - Rocky has been on a 3-year, 6-fight winning streak which included the title win over Zeuge and a win over well-respected British fighter John Ryder. Rocky, who has fought multiple times in his career as high as light heavyweight (178 lbs), has a 4.5" reach advantage over Canelo and is also expected to come into Saturday night's fight with a considerable size advantage.

Canelo vs. Rocky will be Canelo's first fight in New York City (and on the entire East Coast after several fights in the U.S. in Las Vegas, Texas, and Los Angeles) and will be Rocky's first fight outside of Europe (and only his second fight outside of his home country of England).

It's worth noting that Saturday night's fight is for the WBA "Regular" super middleweight championship. The WBA "Super" super middleweight championship is currently held by Callum Smith (who - as noted above - beat Fielding in 2015 by 1st-round TKO). Smith beat George Groves (by 7th-round KO) this past September in the World Boxing Super Series final to win the "Super" version of the WBA super middleweight championship.

Prefight Analysis

As an overwhelming (1-16) favorite who just two months ago signed the richest contract in the history of sports, it should be no surprise that I'm going with Canelo to win Saturday night's fight (and win convincingly).

But Rocky could make this fight tougher than expected. As a natural super middleweight who's even spent some of his career as a light heavyweight, Rocky will come into this fight with an advantage in size combined with respectable enough power to make things tough for Canelo, particularly in the early rounds. (With a 52% TKO/KO percentage, Rocky has knocked out most of the opponents he's faced - all of whom were bigger than Canelo in terms of size.) Rocky has above average combination punching skills and won't be afraid to trade punches with a smaller Canelo. For a super middleweight, Rocky moves well and has the ability to box while backing up, which should open up counterpunching opportunities when Canelo comes forward. Rocky will also come into Saturday's fight with a significant (4.5") reach advantage which - if combined with effective enough movement - could stymie Canelo's aggression.

Note that this is the 3rd consecutive week where the underdog in a high-profile fight will come into the ring with a size, height (Rocky is listed at 6'1" compared to Canelo at 5'8"), and reach advantage, complimented with an ability to move well. (Jose Pedraza last week vs. Vasyl Lomachenko and Tyson Fury the week before that vs. Deontay Wilder.) These qualities enabled the underdog in each of these fights to go the 12-round distance despite a loss by knockout being regarded as the most likely outcome.

Although limited athletically, Rocky has a versatile skill set and the fact is he did just a few months ago beat a heavily favored, undefeated world champion in that champion's home country to win his first title. Saturday night will be (by far) the biggest fight of Rocky's career and possibly even the most important night of his whole life - there is little question he will come to fight and lay it all on the line. Last year, Canelo looked impressive at a 164.5 lb cachet in winning a wide unanimous decision victory vs. a more talented fighter than Rocky in Chavez Jr. (none of the three judges even gave Chavez Jr. a single round). But Rocky is a bigger, tougher, more aggressive fighter than Chavez Jr. and will almost certainly put forth a greater effort than Chavez Jr. did. It shouldn't be much of a surprise at all if Rocky's size and reach in particular pose a much bigger problem than Canelo - who has fought as small as 140 lbs (super lightweight) early on in his career - ever anticipated.

But at the end of the day, Rocky I think lacks the athleticism and knockout power of elite super middleweights like Callum Smith and Gilberto Ramirez to compete with Canelo over 12 rounds. There's too much of a skill and hand speed discrepancy here - Rocky is the bigger fighter but I see Canelo wearing Rocky down and picking him apart with quick, accurate punch combinations in a similar fashion to how he picked apart Chavez Jr., who was bigger and had a better chin than Rocky. Rocky will throw more punches than Chavez Jr. did, but I only see that making Rocky - who has a habit of keeping his hands down after throwing punch combinations - even more susceptible to clean counterpunching.

Although only 28 years old, Canelo has the advantage of a wealth of experience vs. elite opponents and has fought against just about every style of fighter possible. Rocky is versatile, but is a straightforward,  British domestic-level boxer lacking the elite-level skills of fighters like Erislandy Lara, Mayweather, and Golovkin that have given Canelo problems in previous fights.

Rocky doesn't have anything that Canelo hasn't already seen; his size, reach, and movement could be a challenge for Canelo in the early rounds but his lack of athleticism, speed, and real knockout power should make it not too difficult for Canelo to adjust and figure out the timing of the British champion both offensively and defensively.

I see Canelo being somewhat cautious and patient early vs. a bigger super middleweight, but like him to either stop Rocky in the later rounds or win a wide unanimous decision. While I think a stoppage might be slightly more likely, I think both outcomes have a similar chance of occurring so will be placing an equal stake on each outcome. I will be attending this fight and looking forward to the action and seeing in person how well DAZN does with their first big fight in the United States!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Canelo by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 (.5 unit) 
2) Canelo by unanimous decision (.5 unit) 

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Wilder vs. Fury: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Deontay Wilder (40-0, 39 KOs) vs. Tyson Fury (27-0, 19 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: December 1, 2018
Weight class: Heavyweight
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World heavyweight title
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Wilder: -155, Fury: +145 (5 Dimes, 12/1/18)
Purses: Wilder: $4 million, Fury: $3 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Fury: #7 ranked heavyweight
Style: Fury: Orthodox, Wilder: Orthodox
Referee: Jack Reiss

Why you should watch this fight

Wilder vs. Fury is one of the most anticipated fights of the year - an intriguing matchup between two elite heavyweights with a combined record of 67-0 and 58 KOs for the WBC heavyweight title currently held by Wilder. The winner of this fight will be in line for a possible unification superfight with undefeated IBF, WBA, and WBO heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua in 2019 in a fight that may result in the first undisputed heavyweight champion since Lennox Lewis in 2000.

Wilder vs. Fury will be the first heavyweight fight in the U.S. carried as a pay-per-view since Mike Tyson's last fight vs. Kevin McBride in 2005.

Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury have similar gregarious, charismatic personalities but have contrasting boxing styles. Wilder - who is coming off of what might have been the best fight of the year thus far in his thrilling TKO victory over Luis Ortiz this past March - has knocked out every opponent he's faced in his career, relying nearly entirely on the brute, raw knockout power he possesses in both hands (particularly his devastating right hand, which has been the impetus for most of his knockouts). With previously undefeated mega-power punchers Sergei Kovalev and, more recently, Gennady Golovkin suffering losses over the past couple of years, Wilder - with a historically impressive knockout percentage of 98% over 40 career fights - is now widely considered to be the top knockout artist in the sport.

Fury, on the other hand, is perhaps the most all-around skilled boxer in the heavyweight division, having relied much less on power and more on his high boxing IQ and savvy to decisively outbox or stop every opponent he's faced in his boxing career. Despite being 6'9" and over 250 pounds, Fury moves extremely well for his size and is deceptively elusive on defense. Offensively, Fury possesses an awkward style from range (behind an 85" reach) featuring generally accurate punches from often unpredictable angles that perplexes many of his opponents, as well as an ability to box skillfully on the inside.

Whatever advantages Wilder possesses coming into this fight in terms of punching power and athleticism, Fury has comparable advantages in terms of technique and pure boxing skills.

Although Fury has fought twice this year, both fights were "tune-up" fights against inferior, C-level opponents; Fury hasn't fought a meaningful, competitive fight since his unanimous decision victory three years ago (November 2015) vs. Wladimir Klitschko. Since that fight with Klitschko, Fury announced his retirement from boxing and, shortly thereafter, experienced drug, alcohol, and mental health issues. During his retirement, Fury's weight ballooned to over 400 pounds; he's had to lose around 150 pounds over the past year to get back into top-level fighting shape.

Wilder vs. Fury is taking place at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. This will be the first fight promoted by Al Haymon's Premier Boxing Champions series to air on pay-per-view.

Why Deontay Wilder will win

Record of accomplishments: Wilder is the current WBC heavyweight champion, having held the title for nearly four years after a wide unanimous decision victory vs. Bermane Stiverne in January 2015. Wilder is 40-0, with 39 of those wins (98%) coming by knockout; the lone decision of Wilder's career came in the aforementioned unanimous decision victory vs. Stiverne. Wilder scored a 1st round KO victory vs. Stiverne in their rematch last year; with that knockout victory over Stiverne, Wilder has knocked out each of the 39 opponents he's faced in his professional career. A former football player (at the tight end position) in high school, Wilder didn't start boxing until he was 20 years old. But Wilder rose through the ranks quickly, winning the National Golden Gloves and U.S. national amateur heavyweight championships in 2007 - less than two years after he started boxing. The following year, Wilder earned a bronze medal as a heavyweight at the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing. Tonight, Wilder will be making his eighth consecutive title defense of his heavyweight belt.

Advantages in power and athleticism: Wilder has knocked out every opponent he's faced in his career (39 opponents in 40 fights) behind legitimate one-punch knockout power in both hands - especially his right hand which he uses to throw his favorite and most lethal punch, the overhand right. Wilder's punching power is arguably the most effective and sudden game changer in all of professional sports, on multiple occasions turning what were close and competitive fights into knockout victories (see Wilder's last fight vs. Ortiz and his recent fights vs. Gerald Washington and Artur Spilka).

With 19 KO victories in 27 fights (70% wins by TKO/KO), Fury has respectable punching power but doesn't have power comparable to Wilder and has less power than even Wilder's two most recent opponents (Ortiz and Stiverne). Fury's relative lack of sudden power should enable Wilder to take more chances and be more aggressive in certain spots than he was in the Ortiz and Stiverne fights. Fury is undefeated and elusive defensively, but he actually has been knocked down early by a smaller heavyweight with considerably less punching power than Wilder (2nd round of Fury's April 2013 fight vs. Steve Cunningham). If a small heavyweight with a career TKO/KO percentage of 33% who actually fought the majority of his career at cruiserweight (maximum weight of 200 lbs) can knock Fury down, one could surmise that the top knockout artist in the heavyweight division (and perhaps the entire sport of boxing) in Wilder should have a much easier time putting Fury on the canvas.

A former football, basketball, baseball, and track athlete in high school, Wilder is a superior athlete to Fury. Fury is bigger, moves well, and has very good positional footwork for his size but Wilder is the stronger, quicker, and faster fighter. It also doesn't help that Fury comes into this fight with questionable conditioning. An eye test suggests that Fury's gotten himself back in world-class shape but Fury hasn't fought a meaningful, competitive opponent in three years (both of his opponents since coming out of retirement were 16-1 underdog, C-level fighters) and he weighed over 400 lbs as recently as last year. It is more likely than not that Fury's years away from meaningful competition and significant weight fluctuation since his retirement have had more of a negative than positive effect on his boxing abilities.

Aggressive, yet cautious: Wilder has a reputation of being overly aggressive, likely because of his at-times off-balance, wild swinging punches. But he actually more frequently employs a more cautious form of aggression - particularly in the early rounds of fights - behind foot movement and a long (83" reach) jab. As shown in his fight vs. Ortiz and first fight vs. Stiverne, Wilder is more than capable of being patient behind his jab and waiting for a decent opportunity to strike. At least early on, I suspect he'll utilize a similar strategy vs. Fury, staying behind his jab and not allowing the best counter puncher he's faced thus far in his career in Fury catch him out of position. With that said, Fury doesn't have the power of Ortiz or Stiverne and his physical conditioning is still a question, so I do expect Wilder to take more chances and increase his aggression as the fight progresses.

More heart/mentally stronger: Wilder - who will be making his eighth title defense tonight - is a confident, hungry fighter with a strong desire to be remembered down the road as one of the all-time great heavyweights. Compare that mentality with Fury, who retired, briefly un-retired, and then retired again after winning his first heavyweight title in 2015 vs. Klitschko. (Fury did not fight again for 2.5 years after winning the title vs. Klitschko.) Fury was scheduled to fight Klitschko again in a July 2016 rematch, but the rematch was postponed multiple times due to an ankle injury and multiple failed drug tests suffered by Fury. Fury ultimately vacated his title belts and retired from boxing citing mental health, drug, and alcohol issues.

One can surmise from evaluating their paths to Saturday's fight that Wilder is the more mentally stable fighter with superior determination and focus. Wilder showed impressive heart and determination in a fight-of-the-year candidate earlier this year vs. Ortiz, getting outboxed and nearly stopped in the 7th round of that fight before finding a way knock Ortiz down twice to win by stoppage in the 10th round. Three months after Wilder vs. Ortiz, Fury came out of retirement to fight Sefer Seferi, a farcical fight that involved quite a bit of clowning around and smiling by both fighters, and even a kiss on the lips prior to the first bell.

Fury will no doubt take Saturday's fight more seriously, but Wilder definitely strikes me as the more serious, mentally tougher fighter which could go along way towards overcoming Fury's advantages in size and technical skill.

Recent ring activity: Wilder has obviously been much more active than the recently un-retired Fury in recent years, having fought five times since Fury fought Klitschko in 2015 - mostly vs. respectable, top 20 heavyweights. His most recent fight was against a fighter in Ortiz that some rated (and perhaps even still rate) as high as a top 2 or 3 heavyweight in the world.

As mentioned previously, Fury has fought just twice since coming out of retirement this year, both "tune-up" fights vs. no-name, C-level opponents. Fury hasn't fought an elite opponent since defeating Klitschko three years ago and has undergone extensive treatment for substance abuse since then. Ring rust, the effort to overcome substance abuse issues, as well as the effort Fury had to make to lose approximately 150 lbs over the past year to get back into top-level shape might all crash down on Fury coming into the fight vs. Wilder and result in a poorer-than-expected performance later tonight.

Home country advantage: With this fight taking place in Los Angeles, Wilder is fighting 2,000 miles from his hometown of Tuscaloosa, Alabama and 2,800 miles from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York - where he's fought three out of his last five fights and developed a solid East Coast fan base. Although Wilder is headlining a boxing card on the West Coast for the first time in his career, he is fighting in his home country vs. a somewhat controversial, at-times obnoxious fighter from the United Kingdom in Fury. The charismatic, entertaining fighter from Alabama is expected to be a strong crowd favorite - which may influence the action inside the ring and perhaps even influence the judges on the outside.

Wilder has arguably been the beneficiary of favorable scoring in recent fights. Three of Wilder's last five fights - vs. Ortiz, Washington, and Szpilka - somewhat surprisingly had Wilder tied or ahead on the scorecards at the time of stoppage when it could easily be argued he should've been behind on the cards. (I had Wilder behind in the Ortiz and Washington fights at the time of stoppage.)

Why Tyson Fury will win

Record of accomplishments: Fury is a former unified IBF, WBA, and WBO heavyweight champion of the world, having won those titles in 2015 by beating Wladimir Klitschko - who until that point had been on an 11-year, 22-fight winning streak. In winning that fight vs. Klitschko, Fury also became the lineal heavyweight champion, a title Fury still claims today as no one has beaten him since the Klitschko fight.

Like Wilder, Fury is undefeated (27-0) with 19 of those wins coming via TKO/KO. Although he's been knocked down once in his career (in 2013 vs. Cunningham, a fight he would later come back to win in the middle rounds by stoppage) he's never truly been tested in his pro, winning all of his fights either by stoppage or clear unanimous decision. The most impressive win of Fury's career was his wide unanimous decision victory vs. Klitschko, beating the future first ballot hall-of-famer as a 3.5-1 underdog in the Klitschko-friendly confines of Germany, where Klitschko fought most of the fights in his professional career (50 out of 69 fights).

Fury is of Irish Traveller (Gypsy) heritage and comes from a long family line (reported to be 10 generations) of bare-knuckle fighters and traditional boxers.  (Bare-knuckle fighting has long been a popular tradition within Gypsy culture.)

Advantage in skill: In terms of technical skills, Fury is a (far) superior boxer to Wilder. At 6'9", 250+ pounds Fury has excellent dexterity, as well as very good head and foot movement for his size. Fury is perhaps the most versatile heavyweight we've seen in some years - he can box from an orthodox or southpaw stance, from range or from close distance, and coming forward as the aggressor or moving backwards as a counterpuncher. Fury's at-times constant movement makes him hard to hit and allows him to throw punches from unpredictable, awkward angles that are difficult for his opponents to anticipate. His skills are complemented with very respectable (and generally accurate) punching power, as he's won 70% of his fights by TKO/KO.

Even after his extended layoff, Fury is arguably still the most skilled heavyweight in boxing and will be the most skilled boxer Wilder has faced in his career - even more so that Ortiz, who outboxed Wilder for most of their fight before getting stopped late. Fury doesn't have Ortiz's power but is younger, quicker, moves better, is a savvier counter puncher, and is more solid defensively than Ortiz.

In his last title fight, Fury decisively outboxed Klitschko, who was past his prime but hadn't been beaten in 11 years and was known for being one of the most technically skilled heavyweights of this generation. Klitschko went on 1.5 years later in his next fight to knock down and nearly stop UK boxing superstar Anthony Joshua, who is undefeated and widely considered the #1 heavyweight in the world. Fury did not have any of the problems Joshua had with Klitschko, barely getting touched and winning nearly all of the early rounds comfortably before coasting in the later rounds to win a clear decision.

If a less-skilled, still somewhat raw fighter in Wilder can't get to Fury with his power and tonight's fight becomes a pure boxing match, Fury will almost certainly win a wide decision more convincingly than he did vs. Klitschko. Given Wilder's at-times undisciplined, "swinging" power punching motions which sometimes leave him open to clean counters, one also can't discount the possibility that Fury even stops him in the later rounds.

Advantages in size and reach: A key advantage Wilder has enjoyed in pretty much every fight of his career is his 83" reach. Wilder typically sets up his attack behind a jab that is longer than his opponent's, which allows him to mix in knockout power punches from distance without always having to worry about clean counters (since opponents with a shorter reach usually can't attack him as effectively from distance). But, with an 85" reach, Fury might be the first boxer Wilder has faced with a reach advantage over him. Fury beat a highly-skilled Klitschko largely utilizing his reach advantage and movement to elude Klitschko's jab and power attack; he could very easily utilize a similar reach advantage to outbox a fighter in Wilder who doesn't have near the experience or savvy Klitschko did.

Wilder is also still unproven as an inside fighter, actually having struggled from close distance vs. lesser opponents (see stretches of Wilder's fights vs. Washington, Spilka, and Eric Molina). Fury is a skilled inside fighter with sharper instincts and greater accuracy from close range. Do not be surprised if, in some spots,  Fury uses his 40+ pound weight advantage and superior boxing ability on the inside to score points and smother Wilder's punching power.

Prefight Analysis

If I knew with certainty that we'll see the same version of Fury tonight that we saw prior to his retirement in 2016, I'd take Fury to win this fight easily without even thinking about it. I've always rated Fury very highly; in my opinion, a prime Tyson Fury is the most skilled heavyweight since Lennox Lewis, who was the best heavyweight of this generation. I favor the skills of a  prime Fury even over a prime Wladimir Klitschko; a more disciplined, mentally stable Fury I think could've had a better career than the legendary Ukrainian.

Fury is the one fighter at heavyweight who has the reach to neutralize Wilder's jab. Fury also has the skills to elude Wilder's rangy power with his savvy, deceptively quick head movement and footwork. Again, Fury is a guy who - as a significant underdog - easily outboxed one of the all-time great heavyweights in Klitschko in Klitschko's adopted home of Germany. If Wilder can't reach Fury with his power Fury, in my opinion, is a near certainty to outbox a decidedly less-skilled fighter in Wilder, who has actually already been outboxed by many of the better heavyweights he's fought in recent years (Ortiz, Washington, Szpilka).

Beyond his long jab and power right hand, Wilder is somewhat limited in terms of pure skills. If tonight we get a Fury that's anything close to the level of pre-retirement Fury, I think Fury probably wins a wide decision (even wider than his win vs. Klitschko) or even stops Wilder in the late rounds.   
Really, this fight mostly boils down to which version of Fury we see tonight; honestly, this is nearly impossible to predict given Fury's recent 2.5-year layoff from the sport and the mental health, substance abuse, and weight issues he dealt with during his time outside of the ring. I could be (way) wrong but I lean towards the thinking that Fury is making a serious mistake jumping in only a few months after returning from retirement to fight an elite, more athletic heavyweight with historically great punching power like Wilder. I see years of ring rust (discounting Fury's two recent fights vs. C-level opponents, where ring rust was clearly evident), deteriorated conditioning, and Fury's still-questionable mental stability not faring well vs. Wilder's confident determination, superior athleticism, and power - even with Fury's still considerable advantage in skill. 

If Fury had given himself more time to tune-up vs. better competition prior to taking this fight I'd give him a much better chance to win but from what I've seen in his last two fights the ring rust is still there - he's not quite as quick or accurate as he was pre-retirement. I don't think Fury is quite ready yet to fight Wilder (or any of the other elite heavyweights for that matter). 

While I see Wilder being a bit patient early in an effort to establish his jab and gauge Fury from distance, I think by far the most likely outcome of this fight is Wilder by TKO/KO, maybe even in the early to middle rounds. Wilder by TKO/KO - which can currently be found at roughly even money (approximately +100) odds - is the lone bet I'll be taking for this fight. In case Fury is able to find his pre-retirement form and is in better condition than I'm expecting I would strongly consider hedging any potential losses on the Wilder by TKO/KO bet with Fury to win by unanimous decision, which can currently be found at as high as +365 odds (5Dimes).

Both inside and outside the ring I fully expect tonight's fight to be a show!

Prediction: Wilder by TKO/KO

Recommended bet: Wilder by TKO/KO (.5 unit)

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George Groves vs. Chris Eubank Jr.: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: George Groves (27-3, 20 KOs) vs. Chris Eubank Jr. (26-1, 20 KOs)
Location: Manchester Arena, Manchester, United Kingdom
Date: February 17, 2018
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Super Middleweight title
TV: None (in the U.S. will be streamed on World Boxing Super Series YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD3OiO5NLkUJHL23qUv8L0Q/featured)
Line: Groves +158, Eubank Jr. -168 (5 Dimes, 2/17/18)
Purse: Groves: $2.1 million (approximate), Eubank Jr.: $2.1 million (approximate) [The two fighters are splitting a purse of approximately £3 million pounds evenly.]
Ring Magazine Rankings: Groves: #2 ranked super middleweight, Eubank Jr.: #4 ranked super middleweight
Style: Groves: Orthodox, Eubank Jr.: Orthodox
Referee: Michael Alexander

Why you should watch this fight

George Groves vs. Chris Eubank Jr. is one of the most anticipated fights of the year and the most anticipated fight between two UK fighters since Carl Froch rematched Groves in May of 2014, a fight which boasted a post-World War II British record of 80,000 in attendance at Wembley Stadium and sold out in less than an hour. (By comparison, this weekend's Groves vs. Eubank matchup sold out the 21,000-seat Manchester Arena in Manchester, England within just seven minutes.)

This fight features arguably the two best super middleweights in the world. Groves is a technically sound, experienced boxer with very good punching power in both hands that complements his decent hand speed and an ability to box on the move. He's looked fairly impressive in winning his last six fights (four by TKO/KO) since losing a WBC title fight to Badou Jack in 2015 and suffering two TKO losses to Froch in each of the two years prior to that. Groves, who switched trainers to noted UK trainer Shane McGuigan after his loss to Jack, won his first major world title - the WBA super middleweight title - last October vs. previously undefeated UK contender Jamie Cox.

In the first defense of his super middleweight title, Groves will face challenger Eubank Jr. -  the son of former two-weight world champion and British boxing great Chris Eubank Sr.  - who is trying to win the first major title of his professional career. High-volume, speedy, and aggressive with excellent conditioning and very good power, Eubank has looked highly impressive since his  controversial split decision loss in 2014  to current undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders, having decisively won his last eight fights (seven by TKO/KO) and making enough of an impression in recent fights that he enters the fight as a solid (-168) favorite despite being the challenger who has never previously won a major world title.

This fight is being contested as a semifinal within the World Boxing Super Series (WBSS) super middleweight tournament. The winner of this fight will not only be the WBA super middleweight champion (and widely considered the best super middleweight of the world), the winner will advance to the WBSS final in London this June to face the winner of the Callum Smith vs. Juergen Braehmer WBSS semifinal (taking place next Saturday in Germany). While technically a semifinal matchup on paper, Groves vs. Eubank Jr. is essentially a megafight in the UK between two of the top ten British fighters in the sport pound-for-pound and is one of the very best fights that could've been made in boxing overall. Fantastic matchup that has all the makings of being a candidate for fight of the year.

Prefight Analysis

There are a bunch of solid reasons to favor Groves in this fight.

He is the naturally bigger man - a career super middleweight (168 lbs) who could possibly even compete for a world title at light heavyweight (175 lbs), while Eubank has a smaller frame and limited top-level experience at super middleweight, having actually fought most of his more notable fights in recent years at middleweight (160 lbs). Groves also has greater punching power to complement his size advantage (including one-punch power that former Groves opponent Martin Murray rates as superior to Ring Magazine's #1 pound-for-pound fighter Gennady Golovkin's) and is considered by most to be a more skilled, technically sound boxer than Eubank.

Groves without a doubt has more experience than Eubank vs. world-class opponents (particularly at super middleweight), having beaten highly regarded fighters such as James DeGale (an Olympic gold medalist who is still considered by some to be one of the best boxers in the sport pound-for-pound despite his recent upset loss to Caleb Truax), Martin Murray, Fedor Chuvinov, and Jamie Cox. Groves has also been in close, competitive super middleweight title fights vs. Jack (where he lost a split decision) and twice vs. Froch (where he led early in both fights, including the first fight where he led late on all three judges' scorecards before a questionable stoppage). Groves has fought on the world stage before (including in front of 80,000 fans in his second fight vs. Froch at Wembley Stadium n London) and won the WBA super middleweight title in his last fight vs. a solid, undefeated opponent in Cox.

Outside of a past-prime, 37-year-old (though still dangerous) Arthur Abraham, Eubank has yet to defeat any high profile opponents; the biggest name Eubank has fought in his career is current undefeated middleweight champion Saunders, who he lost to by split decision in 2014 after being dominated in the early rounds of the fight. Saturday's fight will be just Eubank's fourth 12-round fight at super middleweight and the first major world title fight of his career.

Generally, if a fighter has the advantages Groves has in size, skills, punching power, and experience you'd expect that fighter to win... when you further consider that sportsbooks are currently offering odds as high as +170 for Groves to win or as high as +500 for Groves to win on points (which are compelling odds given that Eubank has never been stopped or knocked down even once as a pro), even a Groves skeptic would have to strongly consider betting on him simply for the value.

Though I could see this fight going either way and think the odds being offered on Groves are tempting, I still think betting on Eubank Jr. to win is where the best value lies. Despite Groves's advantages in certain notable metrics (size, skill, etc.), I don't think any of those advantages are wide enough vs. an ever-improving Eubank who seems to have gotten better after each fight since his narrow loss three years ago to Saunders. (In other words, while Groves has the edge in size, power, and skill I feel Eubank is comparable enough in these areas to compete and give Groves serious problems.) Though Groves has a slightly larger physical frame and bigger punching power, Eubank strikes me as the physically stronger fighter; I expect that he'll be able to use his superior athleticism and speed to get inside on Groves, where he can impose his physical strength and break him down with high punch volume - particularly in the later rounds of the fight.

Eubank is the better fighter from close range and has the power to hurt Groves on the inside - a brawl-style fight from close distance favors Eubank while a more classic boxing match from mid-range or full distance likely favors Groves. I feel Eubank's advantages in physical strength and speed combined with his typically busy punch output will ultimately allow him to control the pace of the fight and mostly negate some of the advantages Groves has in this matchup.

But the biggest mismatch I see in this fight relates to stamina and mental fortitude. Especially in his biggest fights, Groves is notorious for being a 6-round fighter who starts well only to tire and fade late. Eubank, on the other hand, has a reputation for being a 12-round fighter - one of the more well-conditioned boxers in the sport who seemingly gets stronger as the fight goes on and is capable of turning up his intensity in the late rounds of a fight. 

Groves was leading early in his fights vs. Froch before fading and getting stopped in the late rounds of both fights. He was also leading in the middle rounds of his super middleweight title fight vs. Jack (despite getting knocked down in the first round of the fight) but lost a split decision after losing most of the late rounds. Even in Groves's most impressive win - a majority decision victory vs. DeGale back in 2011 -  he won most of the early rounds before losing most of the late rounds. Groves has a history of faltering in the late rounds vs. top-level opponents - one has to question not only the stamina but the mental toughness of a fighter who consistently fades late in big fights. Eubank is a durable fighter with excellent stamina and a solid chin - and fights with as much (or more) aggressive intensity in late rounds as he does early; this bodes poorly for Groves given his history of tiring late in fights.

Also consider that in recent fights, Groves has not boxed on his feet (i.e., not been as mobile) as much as he did when he was younger (like his win nearly seven years ago vs. DeGale). Groves has instead employed a more stationary style where he is more prone to standing in front of his opponent and trading power punches - a strategy which perhaps allows him to better utilize his outstanding power but a style which probably cost him both of his fights vs. Froch and which may not be the wisest style to employ vs. a durable, high-volume power puncher with a solid chin like Eubank.

I actually expect Groves to outbox Eubank a bit early and get off to a good start (as he typically does in these kind of matchups) but think the stronger, faster, more durable and relentless Eubank will wear Groves down late for a win on points or perhaps even a late stoppage. I get the sense Eubank is hungrier and mentally tougher than Groves (perhaps much more so), and sees this fight as a career-defining moment and a win that will put him on a faster track to international superstardom.

So I do like Eubank overwhelming Groves late for the win as the best bet on this fight. (Eubank to win can currently be had for odds as low as -160.) With that said, Groves to win by decision - which can be found for as high as +500 on Bovada - is a bet that's too good to pass up as a hedge given Grove's advantages in some key metrics (size, skill, power, and experience), as well as the fact that Eubank has never been stopped as a pro. So the betting strategy I'd recommend is Eubank to win hedged with a smaller bet of Groves to win by decision (to cover losses in case Eubank doesn't win). (This betting strategy won't yield much profit but this is where I see the best value in the fight.)

Both fighters have a knack for making exciting fights so this should be a good one!

Prediction: Eubank Jr. to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Eubank Jr. to win (1 unit)
2) Groves to win on points (.33 unit)

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David Lemieux vs. Billy Joe Saunders: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: David Lemieux (38-3, 33 KOs) vs. Billy Joe Saunders (25-0, 12 KOs)
Location: Place Bell, Laval, Quebec, Canada
Date: December 16, 2017
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO World middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Lemieux -115, Saunders -105 (5 Dimes, 12/15/17)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Lemieux: #3 ranked middleweight, Saunders: #4 ranked middleweight
Style: Lemieux: Orthodox, Saunders: Southpaw
Referee: Michael Griffin

Why you should watch this fight

In a middleweight division loaded with talent, Billy Joe Saunders is an undefeated world title holder (WBO) who is arguably the third best middleweight on the planet behind boxing superstars Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin.

Saunders is a tough and very talented technician who has beaten everyone put in front of him,  including highly regarded World Boxing Super Series super middleweight favorite and - at the time undefeated - Chris Eubank Jr. But Saunders will be fighting outside the the friendly confines of his home country (the United Kingdom) for the first time in his professional career Saturday night when he travels to Canada to face one of the most dangerous power punchers in the sport in David Lemieux on Lemieux's home turf in Montreal. Lemieux is a highly aggressive, explosive puncher with power in both hands and an impressive 80.5% KO ratio over 41 professional fights; his only loss in the past seven years was to current Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #1-ranked fighter Golovkin.

A win for Lemieux tomorrow night would be by far the most impressive of his career (would in fact be his first win vs. a top-level opponent) and would firmly establish him as one of the top four or five middleweights in the world. The winner of this fight is probably the most likely to face the winner of next May's Canelo vs. Golovkin rematch later in 2018 for a middleweight unification bout that could result in the first undisputed middleweight champion in boxing since Jermain Taylor in 2006.

With the exception of a few, fighters from the United Kingdom have typically not fared well in title fights overseas in hostile environments vs. world-class opposition. A win for Saunders tomorrow night vs. Lemieux would actually be one of the more impressive wins for a UK fighter outside the UK in recent years. 

Prefight Analysis

As the odds suggest, Lemieux vs. Saunders is a true "50/50" fight that could go either way. Extremely difficult to predict the winner here.

What you have to like about Saunders is that he is likely the better pure boxer/technician in this matchup, with his high ring intelligence and superior boxing skills. Unlike Lemieux, Saunders has also never lost a fight in his professional career. Whenever Saunders has faced a tough, top-level opponent (vs. Eubank Jr., Andy Lee, or even his most recent fight vs. a solid Willie Monroe Jr. - all of whom are arguably on the same level as, if not even slightly better than Lemieux) he's emerged from the fight victorious. Lemieux, on the other hand, has never beaten a fighter near the caliber of Saunders and has actually already lost twice in his hometown of Montreal to fighters with less skill than Saunders. (Lemieux's first loss was to a fighter in Joachim Alcine who proceeded to lose his next five fights after beating Lemieux.)

Although Saunders doesn't have Lemieux's power, he strikes me as both mentally and physically tougher than Lemieux - a toughness I think that is the result of his blue collar, Gypsy upbringing where he'd been fighting in bare-knuckle competitions when he was only five years old. Saunders has a tight, effective defense (opponents land only 18% of total punches and 23.6% of power punches vs. Saunders) and has never been knocked out or knocked down in his professional career. (Lemieux, on the other hand, has been stopped twice.) I think Saunders' superior boxing skill (in particular his solid jab which I expect to be very effective in managing distance vs. Lemieux), as well as his oft-overlooked mental toughness and grit may be too much for Lemieux to over come - even in Montreal.

With all that said, I'm not at all comfortable betting on Saunders to win this fight - even at nearly even money odds - as Lemieux does have several advantages in this matchup. This fight is essentially in Lemieux's hometown (Laval, Quebec - a suburb of Montreal) and - although Saunders is technically the "A" side fighter in this matchup - Lemieux's promoter Golden Boy is the more high profile, lead promoter for Saturday night's boxing card. I strongly suspect the home crowd atmosphere combined with the backing of Golden Boy Promotions may create a scoring bias in favor of Lemieux - as it arguably did  this past May for Golden Boy-backed Canelo in his controversial draw vs. Golovkin, a fight which many felt he clearly lost. Again, this will be the first time in Saunders' professional career that he's fought outside of the United Kingdom, so it's tough to predict how well he'll fare fighting in a hostile environment.

Although Saunders may have slightly faster hand speed, Lemieux is the superior athlete with much greater punching power. Saunders has never in his career faced a fighter with Lemieux's combination of power and punch volume and could end up getting overwhelmed by Lemieux's effective aggression - especially in the later rounds where Saunders is known to gas out on occasion. And though Lemieux has lost earlier in his career - as an inexperienced 22-year old - to lesser opponents than Saunders, he's gained experience and improved a bit since those losses; since losing two consecutive fights in 2011, Lemieux has lost only one other fight - to a fighter in Golovkin many consider the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world and one of the great middleweights of all time. Saunders, on the other hand, hasn't looked particularly impressive in recent fights, causing some to speculate whether he's already past his peak as a top-level fighter.

Lemieux vs. Saunders is a "toss-up" fight in the truest sense of the word. Despite Lemieux's power advantage inside the ring and advantage in some key intangibles outside of the ring (home crowd, high-profile promoter), I still slightly favor Saunders' superior boxing skills, defense, and mental toughness to prevail vs. Lemieux. Just not enough to bet on it.

I do, however, believe Saunders - with his slick defensive abilities and solid chin (a chin which has never hit the canvas in his professional career) - is highly likely to get through the full 12 rounds with Lemieux, win or lose. Note that 2 of Lemieux's last 3 fights within the past 14 months - both vs. lesser-skilled opponents than Saunders - went the full distance with Lemieux failing to score even one knockdown in either fight. Note also that Lemieux - who, like Saunders, has a history of stamina issues - has only one of his 33 TKO/KO victories past the 7th round; in other words, if Lemieux doesn't stop his opponent in the early or middle rounds, he's usually not stopping them late.

With Saunders not being much of a puncher himself (only two wins by TKO/KO in the past five years and a career TKO/KO% of only 48%), I think that the best value on this fight is to bet that the fight goes the full 12 rounds - a bet that is currently available at around -150 odds.

As far as the outcome, it's hard to predict even what kind of fight will break out Saturday night. A high-volume war likely favors Lemieux, while a slower-paced, more tactical fight likely favors Saunders. Bur either way it's an intriguing matchup and tough test that puts a lot at stake for both fighters.

Prediction: Saunders by decision

Recommended bet: Lemieux/Saunders goes full 12 rounds (.5 unit)

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Gervonta Davis vs. Liam Walsh: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Gervonta Davis (17-0, 16 KOs) vs. Liam Walsh (21-0, 14 KOs)
Location: Copper Box Arena, London, England
Date: May 20, 2017
Weight class: Super featherweight (130 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF World super featherweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Davis -360, Walsh +300 (5 Dimes, 5/20/17)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Davis: #6 ranked super featherweight, Walsh: Not ranked
Style: Davis: Southpaw, Walsh: Southpaw
Referee: Michael Alexander

Why you should watch this fight

To gauge whether Gervonta "Tank" Davis - one of the most hyped prospects in boxing and by far the most hyped prospect Floyd Mayweather has ever promoted - is the real deal and can continue what appears to be a clear path towards future superstardom. In his last fight, Davis greatly exceeded expectations with an impressive 7th round TKO victory  vs. then undefeated Jose Pedraza to win the IBF super featherweight title. In stopping Pedraza, Davis - who'd just turned 22 years old two months prior - beat a tough, skilled boxer who'd not only never lost before but had never even been knocked down in his professional career.

In tonight's fight, Davis travels to the United Kingdom to fight another solid, experienced, undefeated opponent in Liam Walsh who, at 31 years old, is seeking his first major world title. Like Pedraza, Walsh is a versatile fighter who can box from either stance (orthodox or southpaw) and is adept at adjusting his fighting style/tactical approach based on his opponent. Walsh has better power (has won 67% of his fights by TKO or KO), quicker hands, and moves much better on his feet than Pedraza; in many ways Walsh will be a much tougher challenge than Pedraza, especially considering that this fight is taking place overseas in Walsh's home country of England.

Is Gervonta Davis a star in the making with the goods to contend with the likes of fellow super featherweight titlists Jezreel Corrales, Miguel Berchelt, and pound-for-pound star Vasyl Lomachenko? His performance tonight vs. an undefeated, potentially tricky opponent in Walsh in what is anticipated to be a very hostile environment in the UK will go a long way towards answering that question.

If Davis wins this fight, he will be the first boxer from Baltimore to successfully defend a world title in over 20 years (since Vincent Pettway in April of 1995) and one of only a handful of Baltimore-raised boxers to defend a title since the days of Joe Gans(!) in the early 20th century.

Prefight Analysis

I fully expect Davis to win this fight. Davis has already decisively beaten - and stopped - a a very good fighter in Pedraza who has a better chin and is arguably more skilled than Walsh so there's not much reason to think Gervonta isn't capable of pulling off a similar performance in tonight's fight. Walsh is solid and may actually be the more skilled, higher IQ fighter in this matchup, but Davis has excellent hand speed and elite power in both hands that will be extremely difficult for Walsh to elude for a full 12 rounds; I'd expect that Davis will eventually find and impose his will on Walsh given his clear advantages in overall athleticism, power, and speed.

Davis does lack experience at the top level of professional boxing (Walsh does as well) but it's worth noting that in his first major title fight vs. Pedraza this past January, he exhibited an unusual amount of self-confidence and lack of intimidation in picking apart an experienced, undefeated world champion in his prime. I'd anticipate Gervonta's confidence to carry over and only be greater in tonight's fight, despite having to face another solid, unbeaten fighter in what may end up being a very hostile environment overseas; Davis seems to lack the "scare" that afflicts many young, inexperienced fighters.

Walsh is in his prime, has a bit more experience than Davis against solid competition, and may actually be the better-skilled fighter overall but he's limited in terms of athleticism and is far from what would be considered "elite." Davis - based on what I've seen in his recent fights (most notably the Pedraza fight), has a special combination (arguably reminiscent of Mike Tyson) of sense of invincibility, power, hand speed, and toughness which IMO makes a stoppage victory over the British fighter the most likely outcome of this matchup.

But with that said I actually think most of the value in this fight lies with betting on Walsh to win (which can currently be found at odds as high as +350). A critical mistake Pedraza made in his fight this past January with Davis was standing in front of Gervonta for much of the fight and challenging him on the inside - which made him all the more susceptible to Gervonta's massive power. Walsh - who boxes very well off his feet - will almost certainly take a different approach and use his superior foot speed, along with his reach advantage, to outbox Davis (who is a bit flat-footed and, similar to an Adrien Broner, often relies on planting his feet from a stationary position to generate punching power) from distance. Walsh is an elusive fighter (perhaps more so than anyone Davis has faced in his professional career) with a solid defense so may be able to confound the relatively young and inexperienced Davis for large stretches of tonight's fight.

Walsh is not (and will never be) a top pound-for-pound fighter, but he is one of the very best fighters in the United Kingdom. He's crafty and probably has a better overall skill set than Davis; as the fight progresses into later rounds I'd trust his ability to make adjustments much more than Gervonta's.

Walsh also has very good (and deceptive) power; his 67% TKO/KO ratio is the highest KO% of any fighter Davis has fought in his career so Walsh may actually be the biggest puncher Davis has faced thus far in his professional career.

A last point to consider is that if this fight goes to the scorecards you have to figure - fair or not - that there is a good chance that the scoring will be biased towards Walsh in a country somewhat notorious for scoring in favor of the home country fighter when facing a fighter from overseas. So a close fight either way can perhaps be expected to be awarded to the home fighter (Walsh).

All things considered, I grade Walsh as having a decent 35-40% chance to win this fight, which makes betting on Walsh to win at the current +300 (and higher) odds  a very solid value bet. As shown in his last fight vs. Pedraza, Davis is a young, energetic fighter with excellent stamina and a seemingly sturdy chin so I don't see him getting stopped (despite Walsh's very respectable power). So I like placing at least a portion of the bet for this fight on Walsh to win specifically by decision (which you can currently find at as high as +500).

So while I see Davis as the probable winner of this fight, I'm going to go with the value here in Walsh. Walsh has too many favorable qualities in this matchup (experience, skill, good power, ring IQ, foot movement, home crowd advantage) not to consider him as at least a live underdog. I understand that Mayweather is trying to build his brand globally (and in the United Kingdom in particular) but he *may* have bitten off more than he can chew and taken too much risk here taking a young, unseasoned kid like Davis overseas to fight a hungry, undefeated top contender like Walsh. We'll see...

Prediction: Davis by TKO/KO

Recommended bets: 1) Walsh to win (.25 unit) 2) Walsh by decision (.25 unit)

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