Alvarado vs. Rios III: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Mike Alvarado (34-3, 23 KOs) vs. Brandon Rios (32-2-1, 23 KOs)
Location: 1STBANK Center, Broomfield, Denver, Colorado
Date: January 20, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO International Welterweight title (currently vacant)
TV: HBO
Line: Alvarado +155, Rios -165 (5 Dimes, 1/24/15)
Purse: Alvarado: $785,000, Rios: $850,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarado: #5 ranked junior welterweight, Rios: Not ranked
Style: Alvarado: Orthodox, Rios: Orthodox
Referee: Jay Nady

Link to Alvarado/Rios I (HBO)
Link to Alvarado/Rios II (HBO)

Positives for Alvarado 
Negatives for Alvarado
Positives for Rios
Negatives for Rios
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Alvarado

• Former WBO light welterweight champion. Aggressive, high-volume boxer-puncher with very good punching power. Versatile boxer who has very solid boxing skills but is also more than willing to brawl. 
• Tough, gritty boxer who fights with a lot of heart (though fighting with his heart has sometimes been to his disadvantage). Showed heart in his most recent fight, a tough unanimous decision loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in May 2014 where he knocked Marquez down in the 9th round after being dominated the entire fight. Generally solid boxer who has beaten notable contenders such as Mauricio Herrera, Breidis Prescott, and Rios in their first rematch. Naturally athletic fighter who was a former Colorado high school state champion in wrestling.
• Alvarado is not a great technician but has better overall boxing skills than Rios. Was especially effective in both previous fights vs. Rios with his power right hand, as well as his left jab - which was used to set up power punches and combinations. Fought particularly well vs. Rios in both previous fights when fighting from the outside and more often than not beat Rios to the punch due to reach advantage and quicker hand speed.
• After losing to Rios in October 2012 (Alvarado's first career defeat), in March 2013 Alvarado won the rematch vs. Rios via unanimous decision victory on a neutral site in Las Vegas. Generally, boxers with the better technical skill tend to fare better in rematches due to better ability to adjust; Alvarado won the rematch vs. Rios in 2013 so wouldn't be surprising if Alvarado wins this rematch even more decisively with additional adjustments. Even in the first loss to Rios, Alvarado outboxed Rios early before Rios power punches started to take effect.    
• The fight is taking place in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, where the crowd will be decidedly pro-Alvarado. Has already beaten Rios on a neutral site in their last fight so is perhaps even more likely to beat Rios in Denver.
• Mobile fighter with good footwork. Alvarado's dvantage over Rios increases the more he boxes on his feet, staying out of range from Rios' power punches and utilizing his superior boxing skills and speed from the outside.
• Alvarado has excellent stamina, which may play an important role given that the fight is taking place in Denver. (In high altitude cities such as Denver, low air pressure makes it more difficult to breathe.) Alvarado's stamina generally allows him to finish strong in the later rounds of fights.
• Although he has been either knocked down or lost by TKO in three of his last four fights, does have an above average chin. Fights through getting hit with power punches reasonably well (problem is he sometimes ends up getting hit with too many power shots).

Negatives for Alvarado

•  Alvarado's defensive skills, while a bit better than Rios's due to his foot movement, are suspect. This and his inclination at times to brawl from inside (rather than use movement and boxing skills from outside) in fights has left him susceptible to knockdowns in most of his recent fights vs. top opponents. Alvarado's inability to defend himself has resulted in Alvarado getting knocked down three times in his last two fights and losing three out of his last four fights (two by TKO with his most recent loss by wide unanimous decision to Marquez). Has lost by TKO to Rios before so wouldn't be surprising to see Rios hand him another TKO loss. There will inevitably be moments in tonight's fight where he will brawl with Rios - which will likely be to Rios' advantage. 
• Is fighting at home in the Denver area but, even as a solid favorite, lost his last fight in Denver via TKO to Ruslan Provodnikov (who like Rios is limited skillwise but is a relentless power puncher who cuts off the ring well).
• Has Alvarado fully recovered from the recent TKO losses to Rios and Provodnikov? While Alvarado has shown a good chin in the past, there are questions as to how he's been affected by the brutal wars he's had with Rios and Provodnikov, as well as his most recent loss to Marquez. Boxers have a history of losing confidence and becoming gun shy after wars such as the ones he's had recently. In addition to being battle-worn, Alvarado is 34 years old (six years older than Rios) and likely past his prime.
• Alvarado has good boxing skills, but he's far from a master technician. When fighting from the inside, Rios will generally have the advantage, particularly due to his better chin and more effective power punching from inside.
• Alvarado is a convicted felon who is facing the prospect of a lengthy prison sentence after recently being charged with illegally possessing a firearm. How will the looming felony charges and prospect of a prison sentence affect him in the fight?

Positives for Rios

• Former WBA welterweight champion. Very good pressure fighter with dangerous power in both hands. Brawler who fights especially well from the inside and is very effective at cutting off the ring. Earned a 7th round TKO victory vs. Alvarado in their first fight on October 2012.
• Has one of the best chins in boxing. Consistently walks through flush power punches. Has never been stopped in his career and only been knocked down once, a 2006 fight vs. Joel Ortega (which he came back to win by 5th round KO).
• Has good counterpunching skills. Rios often takes flush power punches in order to throw even more powerful counterpunches - which is an effective style for him due to his excellent chin and deceptively quick hand speed.   
• Relentless puncher from the inside. Inside hooks and overhand rights were especially effective in both of his previous fights vs. Alvarado. Uses body attack well to wear down his opponents over the course of a fight. 
• Like Alvarado is a very tough boxer who fights with a warrior mentality and tremendous will to win. Probably a bit physically and mentally tougher than Alvarado. Will be highly motivated to win this fight as he knows his career as a top-level boxer may be over with a loss.
• Longtime trainer is Robert Garcia, widely considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  
• Has had issues in the past at lower weights cutting weight (which sometimes leaves him drained on the day of the fight). This will be much less of an issue in this fight, his second fight at welterweight (147 pounds).

Negatives for Rios

• Very stationary, flat-footed, predictable fighter. In Alvarado will be fighting a boxer with superior technical skill, boxing IQ, mobility, and hand speed (and a boxer who is familiar with his predictable tendencies from their previous fights). Will have to turn fight with Alvarado into a brawl in order to win; in a pure boxing match Alvarado wins easily with his superior skill, speed, and reach.  
• Lost two out of his last three fights, including the rematch vs. Alvarado. Only win in past two years was a DQ victory vs. Diego Chaves who was actually ahead on two out of three judge's scorecards before being disqualified due to intentional elbow to face. Rios has actually been behind on at least one judge's scorecard at the time of stoppage in four out of his last fights. 
• Though he has an excellent chin, Rios has poor defensive skills. Uses very little head movement and is more than willing to take flush punches in order to land his own power punches. This style has generally been effective for him in his career but results in easy scoring opportunities for his more skilled opponents such as Alvarado and Manny Pacquiao, who he lost to by wide unanimous decision in November 2013.  
• Is fighting in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, facing in front of a hostile, pro-Alvarado crowd after losing to Alvarado in their rematch in October 2013.
• Like Alvarado has been through some brutal wars in recent fights, most notably his two fights vs. Alvarado and his November 2013 unanimous decision loss vs. Pacquiao. Will Rios, who has shown signs of regression in recent fights, be able to return to top form vs. Alvarado?

Prefight Summary

Both Alvarado/Rios I and II were strong fight of the year candidates so I definitely expect tonight's fight to be a barnburner as well. Both fighters have slumped in recent fights and realize that another loss here may be the end of their respective careers as top-level boxers and significantly threaten future big fight opportunities.

I'm actually mildly surprised to see that Rios is listed as a solid (-165 on 5 Dimes) favorite in this fight. Vegas likely sees Alvarado as an aging boxer in his mid-30s who has had a lot taken out of him in recent fights - all of which were grueling, brutal wars. Alvarado did lose three out of those last four fights, including a TKO loss the last time he fought in Denver (vs. Provodnikov) and a TKO loss the first time he fought Rios. (Vegas also sees Alvarado as likely distracted by felony charges that could potentially leave him locked up for a few years.) Rios has also slumped in recent fights, losing two out of his last three (including his last fight vs. Alvarado), but is younger, has a much better chin, and overall is viewed as having not regressed as much as Alvarado over his past few fights. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Rios wear Alvarado down in the later rounds for the TKO/KO victory; at the end of the day Alvarado is defensively suspect and he does have a penchant for getting drawn into brawls (as opposed to using his movement and boxing skills), which is to Rios' advantage.

This fight could certainly go either way but I still favor Alvarado. Alvarado made the necessary adjustments to beat Rios in their first rematch and is still the better boxer between the two. One big difference in this fight is, for the first time in their trilogy, they will fight in Alvarado's hometown of Denver - I see that as being a boost for Alvarado's spirits and feel fighting in Denver could even slightly affect the judges' scoring (in what will likely be a close, competitive fight). Alvarado was outclassed in his last fight vs. future first ballot hall-of-famer Juan Manuel Marquez (though to his credit he fought a courageous fight which included a knockdown of Marquez in the later rounds), but learned his lesson from his first fight with Rios and TKO loss vs. Provodnikov that he is much more effective vs. brawlers using movement and his technical skill to outbox his opponents (as opposed to staying inside and trying to beat them at their own game). Rematches generally favor the more technically skilled fighter and I see this rematch being more a repeat of their previous rematch (in which Alvarado was able to make the necessary adjustments to win by unanimous decision) than a repeat of their first fight (which Rios won by TKO).

I actually see Rios as the slightly physically and mentally tougher fighter in this matchup but think Alvarado will use his superior boxing skill, quickness, and mobility, as well as draw from the energy of the home crowd and knowledge of Rios' (predictable) tendencies to earn a competitive but clear decision victory. Some feel Alvarado will be distracted by his outside legal issues; Alvarado is a convicted felon who actually has a fairly lengthy history of legal troubles and to this point in his career has not let those issues affect his performance in the ring. (Alvarado entered his last fight vs. Rios with visible cuts on his face and neck stemming from a bar fight and was still able to win vs. a a fighter who beat him by TKO in their previous fight.) Alvarado will utilize the footwork he used with good success in their last fight, as well as his hand speed and quickness advantage to outwork the defensively inept Rios over the course of 12 rounds to win the rubbermatch of  what is destined to go down as one of the classic trilogies in boxing history.

(Note: though I think Alvarado by decision is the most likely outcome and the way to go with this fight, would also consider wagering a smaller amount on Rios by TKO/KO as a hedge as there is certainly a possibility Alvarado's age and recent wars have worn him down to a shell of his former self.)

Prediction: Alvarado by decision 

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Stiverne vs. Wilder: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Bermane Stiverne (24-1-1, 21 KOs) vs. Deontay Wilder (32-0-0, 32 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: January 17, 2015
Weight class: Heavyweight
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Heavyweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Stiverne +175, Wilder -190 (5 Dimes, 1/17/15)
Purse: Stiverne: $910,000, Wilder: $1,000,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Stiverne - #2 ranked heavyweight, Wilder - #6 ranked heavyweight
Style: Stiverne: Orthodox, Wilder: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Positives for Stiverne
Negatives for Stiverne
Positives for Wilder
Negatives for Wilder
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Stiverne

• Current WBC heavyweight champion. Along with Wilder, is one of the most powerful punchers in boxing with a KO% of 81%  (21 KOs in 26 fights). Possesses outstanding punching power in both hands, especially his right hand. Has not lost a fight in over 7.5 years and has lost only one fight in his career overall. (The one loss by TKO as a result of a highly questionable stoppage.) First world heavyweight champion of Haitian descent.
• In addition to being a power puncher is a technically sound boxer who counter punches well and eludes flush punches with solid, continuous head movement. Is probably the best counter puncher in the heavyweight division. Very patient fighter who throws economical, but generally accurate shots with KO power. Will have a clear boxing IQ and skill advantage vs. Wilder.
• Best punch is the overhand right, which he's used to knock down a large percentage of his opponents, including multiple knockdowns in his two most recent victories vs. Chris Arreola. Has an improved jab (which is often used to set up his overhand right) and also possesses an excellent right uppercut. Has knocked out multiple opponents with reputations for having a good chin (including his most recent fight last May vs. Arreola).  
• Has a clear experience advantage over Wilder. Within the past four years, Stiverne has fought (and beaten) solid heavyweight contenders such as Arreola (twice), Ray Austin, and Kerston Manswell. Stiverne also has an experience advantage in terms of fighting into the later rounds of fights. By contrast this will be Wilder's first major title fight and in 32 pro fights, Wilder has never fought past the 4th round of a fight.  
• Is a natural athlete who earned a scholarship to play football at Michigan State under then head coach Nick Saban in the late 90s. (Did not play and eventually left the team due to knee and ankle injuries.) Has an older brother who played football for the national champion Miami Hurricanes in the early 90s. Has fast hands for a big man and above average defense with his high guard.
• Has a quiet confidence. Patient fighter who has a knack for staying calm in the face of immense pressure (as he faced in his two recent fights vs. Arreola).

Negatives for Stiverne

• Stiverne has only one loss in his professional career, but that loss was by early round TKO to a fighter who finished his boxing career with a 15-20 record (and had an 11-15 record at the time he fought Stiverne). Stiverne has certainly improved since that loss 7.5 years ago but how will he fare vs. arguably the toughest opponent he's fought in his career, an undefeated opponent who has 32 KOs in 32 fights? 
• Although Stiverne comes into this fight with more experience than Wilder, he's also a relatively untested fighter. Has never fought a current or former world heavyweight champion. Also, he hasn't fought as many rounds as one might expect for a fighter with 26 fights under his belt; the majority (16) of his 26 fights have failed to go past the 2nd round. 
• Stiverne has been relatively inactive over the past few years, having fought only once a year each of the past three years (due primarily to hand and shoulder injuries). Stiverne is also 36 years old, seven years older than Wilder. Will an older fighter with a history of nagging injuries be able to withstand the barrage of a devastating power puncher like Wilder?
• Stiverne is a somewhat stationary boxer who likes to fight off the ropes and use his high guard defense to block punches (as opposed to using movement to avoid punches) while waiting for counter punching opportunities. This style may not fare well vs. Wilder, who has the power to punch through a stationary, high guard defense. Although he won both fights, Stiverne was tagged quite a few times from a stationary position against the ropes vs. Arreola; it's highly possible that if Wilder lands those same punches, the result will be an early round TKO/KO in favor of Wilder.
• The quiet, reserved Stiverne is relatively unknown compared to Wilder, who has a fan-friendly personality and is quickly gaining a following among even casual boxing fans with his early round KO victories. The MGM Grand Garden arena crowd will be decidedly pro-Wilder.

Positives for Wilder

• Undefeated fighter who has won all 32 of his fights by TKO/KO (with 24 of those fights coming by 1st or 2nd round TKO/KO). Currently the most devastating power puncher in the heavyweight division and possesses the highest KO% in heavyweight boxing history. Is a former Olympic bronze medalist (Beijing, 2008) who is perhaps the best American heavyweight fighting today. 
• Naturally athletic boxer who is very quick for his size (though Stiverne has comparable quickness and speed).Very strong, tall, rangy fighter who will enter tonight's fight vs. Stiverne with a 5" height advantage (6'7" vs. 6'2") and a 3" reach advantage (83" vs. 80"). Wilder's height and range combined with elite raw power and speed is rare and makes him an extremely difficult matchup for anyone.
• Wilder's best punch is his straight right hand, which is arguably the best straight right hand in all of boxing. (The majority of his early-round KOs have resulted from this punch.) Though primarily a one-handed fighter, does have underrated power from his left side, in particular with his left hook which he used to knock out heavyweight contender Malik Scott in the first round of their fight last year.
• In his 32 professional fights has only been knocked down once and never been seriously hurt. Some of that is due to facing mediocre/weak competition but some is also due to his dominance on the offensive end and noticeably improved defense. 
• Highly confident, gregarious fighter with a fan-friendly, offensive-minded boxing style. The vast majority of the crowd at the MGM Grand Garden arena will be rooting for Wilder.

Negatives for Wilder

• Lacks experience, due in part to the fact that he didn't start boxing until he was 20 years old. Other than a couple of solid opponents in Malik Scott and Audley Harrison, has fought primarily C-level fighters over the course of his career - partly explaining why he has 32 KOs in 32 fights. This is Wilder's first heavyweight title fight and Stiverne will be by far the toughest opponent he's ever fought.
• In addition to lack of experience with quality opponents, Wilder lacks experience fighting into later rounds. None of his 32 professional fights have gone past the 4th round, with only 8 going past the 2nd round. Wilder's stamina and questionable technical skills may be an issue if Stiverne, who has a pretty good chin, can survive the early rounds.
• How will Wilder's chin hold up vs. one of the best power punchers in boxing? Wilder was knocked down and roughed up a bit in his fight four years ago vs. Harold Sconiers (a journeyman with an 18-27-2 record) before earning a 4th round TKO victory. Wilder was actually hit a few times in his most recent fight vs. a clearly out-of-shape journeyman in Jason Gavern who took the fight on 6-7 days' notice. And Wilder has suffered a loss by TKO as an amateur. Stiverne's punching power is comparable to Wilder's; it would not be a surprise to see Stiverne, who is the more accurate puncher of the two, land flush early to earn the TKO/KO victory. 
• Though freakishly athletic with arguably the best punching power in the sport, at the end of the day Wilder's boxing style is somewhat amateurish and predictable given his dependence mostly on his right hand and lack of polished boxing technique. Though improved over the course of recent fights, Wilder is sometimes sloppy and undisciplined during fights, at times throwing wild, inaccurate punches. The level of competition he's fought and his punching power have allowed him to get away with this thus far... but how will his still raw, unpolished style fare vs. the #2-ranked heavyweight in the world?

Summary

No matter how it ends, Stiverne vs. Wilder will be a sure-fire action fight, which is why it's the most anticipated heavyweight fight on American soil in many years. Whichever way the fight goes (and this is certainly a fight that could go either way), the fight likely won't go past six rounds due to the immense punching power both men possess.

Stiverne is the older, more experienced fighter whose punching power is actually comparable to the much-hyped power of Wilder, but Stiverne also has the technical skill and patience to translate his power into an early round TKO/KO upset victory. Stiverne has fought heavy handed punchers in the past (see his two most recent fights vs. Arreola) and generally dispatched of them with relative ease. He's also scored TKO/KO victories vs. boxers with more proven chins and better defense than Wilder so I certainly wouldn't be surprised if he gets the TKO/KO victory here and retains his title belt.

But I think Stiverne's patient, economical style will be his undoing. I feel that Wilder has what may prove to be amongst all-time great punching power to compliment his freakish athleticism, not to mention his height and reach advantages over Stiverne. I think Wilder will be able to use his height, reach, and quickness to stay out of range vs. Stiverne's power punches and will be able to penetrate Stiverne's high guard defense with his power very early in the fight. Stiverne is a patient, relatively stationary fighter whose tendency is to hold his gloves high and gauge his opponent (often while against the ropes) while waiting for an opening to counter punch with his deadly power punches... but I feel in this instance this patience will ultimately cost him the fight. The winner of this fight will likely be whoever lands the first big punches; I think Deontay, generally a fast starter, will jump on and outwork Stiverne early in the fight and be well on his way to a TKO/KO victory before Stiverne even has a chance to get settled. Even with his solid chin, I don't see a cautious, stationary Stiverne being able to withstand Wilder's early barrage. Once Wilder's power makes clean contact, the fight will likely be over soon after.

With Wilder's inexperience at the top level and unproven defensive skills this fight could certainly go either way, especially if it somehow gets into the later rounds. But I feel Wilder will largely be able to elude Stiverne's power with his with his height, speed, and reach and, given Stiverne's patient boxing style, will be given plenty of opportunities to land a fight-ending punch before Stiverne has a chance to land his.

Prediction: Wilder by TKO/KO