Bradley vs. Rios: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight:  Timothy Bradley (32-1-1-1, 12 KOs) vs.  Brandon Rios (33-2-1, 24 KOs)
Location: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 7, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO World Welterweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Bradley -380, Rios +340 (5 Dimes, 11/6/15)
Purse: Bradley: $1.9 million, Rios: $800,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Bradley: #4 ranked welterweight, Rios: Not ranked
Style: Bradley: Orthodox, Rios: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Positives for Bradley
Negatives for Bradley
Positives for Rios
Negatives for Rios
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Bradley

• Current WBO welterweight title holder. As a five-time world champion at junior welterweight and welterweight, Bradley is an experienced, battle-tested boxer whose resume is on par with the best 140 and 147 lb fighters of the past decade. Other than Floyd Mayweather is the only boxer to defeat future first ballot hall-of-famers Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez. With his June 2013 split decision victory vs. Marquez, Bradley likely sealed his ticket into the International Boxing Hall of Fame. 
• A long-time undefeated fighter whose only loss in career was a competitive unanimous decision loss to Pacquiao in April 2014. As recently as last year was ranked the #3 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport by Ring Magazine; has defeated an impressive list of former world champions including Pacquiao, Marquez, Lamont Peterson, Devon Alexander, Ruslan Provodnikov, Miguel Vazquez, Kendall Holt, Nate Campbell, Jessie Vargas, and Junior Witter. Most or all of the former world champions Bradley has beaten were better skilled, arguably tougher opponents than Rios at the time. 
• Technically savvy, versatile boxer who can outbox opponents from the outside with reach, speed, and movement but is also often willing to use his toughness and physical strength to brawl inside. Bradley is a skilled boxer who is adept at adjusting to his opponent's tendencies during fights - shown most notably in his first fight with Pacquiao where he outworked Manny in the 2nd half of the fight. Bradley comes into this fight with Rios with a clear skill advantage.
•  Determined boxer with heart who is good at finding ways to win close fights. Despite all he's accomplished in boxing is still highly motivated and still fights like he has something to prove after the controversy surrounding his first fight vs. Pacquiao over three years ago.  
• Bradley is an elusive fighter with catlike quickness in both his hands and feet. Bradley possesses very good to great vertical and horizontal movement which should allow him to have success evading Rios's pressure over the course of the fight. Rios is a relatively slow, flat-footed fighter who will likely have trouble cutting off the ring vs. the more mobile Bradley and will also likely have trouble beating Bradley to the punch due to inferior hand speed. 
• Many feel Rios is a threat to defeat Bradley by TKO/KO but Bradley has already survived (and beaten) better power punchers than Rios in Pacquiao and Provodnikov who were both also more mobile than Rios. Bradley is arguably a different level of fighter than Rios, with clear skill, speed, and quickness advantages, as well as a slight reach advantage and jab which he should be able to use to keep Rios at bay throughout most of the fight.
• Bradley has a new trainer in current ESPN boxing commentator Teddy Atlas, who has trained (or helped train) former world champions Mike Tyson, Michael Moorer, and Alexander Povetkin. Atlas has not been an active trainer in recent years, but is more experienced and arguably more knowledgeable than Bradley's former trainer Joel Diaz. Atlas is reportedly training Bradley to keep distance and box from range in the upcoming fight vs. Rios, which will likely be to Bradley's advantage.
• Although Bradley has shown a questionable chin in the 12th round of recent fights vs. Vargas and Provodnikov, Bradley is a mentally tough fighter who has never been stopped in his career. The knockdowns Bradley suffered vs. Provodnikov is the only time Bradley has been knocked down in his career.
• Not overly powerful (only 12 KOs in his career and 1 KO in past 8.5 years), but has enough power to keep his opponents honest. Almost knocked Marquez down late in the 12th round of their October 2013 fight.

Negatives for Bradley

• At 32 years old, Bradley has looked past his prime and somewhat battle-worn in recent fights; in his last three fights Bradley has an unimpressive record of 1-1-1. Last year, Bradley faded in the later rounds of his loss vs. Pacquiao and draw vs. Diego Chaves (though the Chaves fight was a fight many still felt he won convincingly). In Bradley's most recent fight vs. Vargas, he was almost knocked down late in the 12th round and possibly could've been stopped if he hadn't been saved by the bell. Rios - a more natural pressure fighter with better power than Vargas - is coming off one of the more impressive wins of his career with his TKO victory vs. Mike Alvarado and poses a real threat if Bradley slows down in the later rounds as he's done in recent fights.  
• Bradley has mediocre to below average punching power, which will allow Rios - who has an excellent chin - to take chances and be relentlessly aggressive throughout the fight. Unlike the Pacquiao fight, Rios won't have to worry about power with Bradley's counter punching so should have opportunities in spots to corner and unload power punches on Bradley despite his clear disadvantage in foot speed.   
• Bradley is an elusive fighter but his defense is arguably overrated and has been especially questionable as of late. Bradley has been getting hit increasingly flush in recent fights, in particular when he chooses to stand in at close range and brawl. Bradley sometimes shows an inclination to brawl (rather than box) in certain spots (an inclination that has increased since his controversial win vs. Pacquiao), which could be to his detriment vs. a dangerous pressure fighter in Rios. 
• This will be Bradley's first professional fight without Joel Diaz as his trainer. Teddy Atlas, Bradley's new trainer, is a highly respected and skilled trainer (even more so than Diaz by most accounts) but it's a huge unknown what effect a new trainer will have on an older, past prime boxer who'd only been with one trainer his entire career.

Positives for Rios

• Former WBA lightweight champion. Very good pressure fighter with dangerous power in both hands. Brawler who fights especially well from the inside and is very effective at cutting off the ring. Earlier this year scored one of the more impressive wins of his career with a 3rd round TKO victory vs. Mike Alvarado in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, Colorado. (Alvarado is a former light welterweight champion who beat Rios in their previous fight.) In October 2012 Rios earned a 7th round TKO victory vs. Alvarado - Alvarado's first loss as a professional. 
• Has one of the best chins in boxing. Consistently walks through flush power punches. Has never been stopped in his career and only been knocked down once, a 2006 fight vs. Joel Ortega (a fight which he came back to win by 5th round KO).
• Has good counterpunching skills. Rios often takes flush power punches in order to throw even more powerful counterpunches - which is an effective style for him due to his excellent chin and deceptively quick hand speed. If Saturday's fight vs. Bradley turns into a brawl (which it could given Bradley's inclination at times to brawl), Rios stands a good chance of having success as that type of fight comes much more naturally to Rios than Bradley.    
• Relentless puncher from the inside. Inside hooks and overhand rights were especially effective in his three fights vs. Alvarado. Uses body attack well to wear down his opponents over the course of a fight. 
• Like Bradley, Rios is a very tough boxer who fights with a warrior mentality and tremendous will to win.  Will be highly motivated to win this fight as he knows his career as a top-level boxer may be in jeopardy with a loss.
• Longtime trainer is Robert Garcia, widely considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  
• Rios is Mexican-American; due to his fan-friendly fight style and the anticipated solid presence of Mexican/Mexican-American fight fans, it is expected that the crowd at the Thomas & Mack Center will be pro-Rios.

Negatives for Rios

• Very stationary, flat-footed, predictable fighter. In Bradley will be fighting a boxer with a significant advantage in technical skill, boxing IQ, mobility, and hand speed. Rios will have to turn fight with Bradley into a brawl in order to win; in a pure boxing match, Bradley likely wins easily with his superior skill, speed, and slight reach advantage (which he can use to maintain distance from Rios's power punching).
• Rios has lost two out of his last four fights, including a wide unanimous decision loss to Manny Pacquiao (a fight where he arguably didn't win a single round). Rios looked good in his win earlier this year vs. Alvarado but Alvarado, by his own admittance, didn't train properly for the fight and was heavily distracted by legal and substance abuse issues. Rios's only other win in the past two years was a DQ victory last year vs. Diego Chaves who was actually ahead on two out of three judge's scorecards before being disqualified due to intentional elbow to face. Rios has actually been behind on at least one judge's scorecard at the time of stoppage in four out of his last six fights. 
• Though he has an excellent chin, Rios has poor defensive skills. Uses very little head movement and is more than willing to take flush punches in order to land his own power punches. This style has generally been effective for him in his career but results in easy scoring opportunities for higher skilled opponents such as Alvarado in their first two fights and Manny Pacquiao, who he lost to by wide unanimous decision in November 2013.  
• Like Bradley has been through some brutal wars in recent fights, most notably his first two fights vs. Alvarado and his November 2013 unanimous decision loss vs. Pacquiao. Will Rios, who is getting older and never in his career beaten a boxer with Bradley's skill, be able to stay competitive vs. a pound-for-pound caliber fighter?

Prefight Summary

There are certainly some reasons why Rios could win this fight. Rios is highly confident and coming off perhaps the best win of his career - an easy 3rd round TKO victory vs. Mike Alvarado after the two split their two previous highly competitive (and fight-of-the-year caliber) fights. Although Alvarado, by his own admittance, came into the fight a bit out of shape and distracted by personal issues, Rios fought with a sense of urgency we've rarely seen in him before and looked as sharp and accurate as he has ever looked.

Rios is indeed a skilled brawler who, while not as fast or talented as Bradley, is effective at cutting off the ring and will almost certainly have his opportunities over the course of 12 rounds, especially vs. Bradley who seems to have a natural inclination towards brawling when pressured. Bradley can be elusive, but he's also shown susceptibility in recent fights to getting hit, most notably in his 2013 fight vs. Provodnikov (where he suffered the 1st knockdown of his career and appeared out on his feet on multiple occasions) and late in his most recent fight vs. Vargas, where he was hit flush and struggled to stay on his feet in the closing seconds of the 12th round. (Vargas, with only 9 KOs in 27 fights, is not known for his punching power.)

Bradley has been in some wars in recent fights and appears to be not quite the fighter he once was; if  what seems to be a rejuvenated Rios can maintain pressure on Bradley throughout the fight and turn it into a brawl, it's highly conceivable Rios could wear Bradley down and get the TKO/KO victory in the later rounds.

But, at the end of the day, I do think even a slightly past prime, battle-worn Bradley should be able to box circles around what is essentially a B-level fighter in Brandon Rios. Not a lot of people realize Bradley has been one of the top fighters pound-for-pound in the sport over the past decade (just last year ranked as high as #3 pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine) and has the solid resume to back it up. Bradley has clear skill and speed advantages over Rios (as Pacquiao did when he fought Rios, though Bradley can't match Pacquiao's power) and *should* (like Pacquiao) be able to win nearly every one with effective boxing and movement.

Bradley's inclination to brawl could get him in trouble in spots but Rios, in my opinion, is too slow and flat-footed to give Bradley consistent trouble over the course of 12 rounds. Bradley has already fought (and beaten) better punchers with more skill than Rios and should have little to no problems in this fight.

I think Bradley by decision is far and away the smartest bet in this matchup *but* would recommend
hedging the bet with Rios by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 as a knockout in the last 4-6 rounds of the fight is the only way I see Rios winning.

Prediction: Bradley by decision (2 units) 

[Recommended Hedge: Rios by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 at +717]

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Pacquiao vs. Bradley II: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Manny Pacquiao (55-5-2, 38 KOs) vs. Timothy Bradley (31-0-0-1, 12 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: April 12, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Pacquiao -240, Bradley +220 (5 Dimes, 4/12/14)
Purse: Pacquiao: $20 million, Bradley: $6 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao #7 ranked pound-for-pound (#3 ranked welterweight), Bradley #3 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked welterweight).
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Bradley: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Positives for Pacquiao

• Although he has (arguably) slipped somewhat, Pacquiao is still one of the elite fighters in the sport (ranked #7 pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine). Pacquiao still has much of the blazing hand speed and explosive power that made him a boxing icon. Future first ballot hall-of-famer. 
• Ambush fighter who is adept at moving in on his opponents and using hand speed to land clean, powerful combinations, then using foot speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter. 
• Pacquiao hasn't scored a KO victory in 4.5 years (7 fights) but still has KO power in both hands. Scored two knockdowns in his December, 2012 fights vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and appeared on the verge of a KO victory before getting caught with a counter right hand near the end of the 6th round that ended the fight.
• Quick fighter who often throws punches from awkward angles, making it very difficult for even skilled defensive fighters like Bradley to anticipate where the punches are coming from. Manny's best punch is his straight left hand, which was an effective punch for him in the previous fight vs. Bradley. 
• By most accounts, Pacquiao won his first fight with Bradley convincingly. (Many gave Pacquiao as many as 10 or 11 rounds of the fight.) Pacquiao outlanded Bradley by over 100 punches in the previous fight (outlanding Bradley in 10 out of 12 rounds) and landed at a much higher percentage even before seemingly easing up in the later rounds. Pacquiao has stated that he intends to be more aggressive vs. Bradley than in his previous fights (which he can afford to do because Bradley has limited power); if Pacquiao can replicate or surpass the success he had landing punches vs. Bradley with his increased aggression he will likely win this rematch convincingly.
• How much has Pacquiao really slipped over his past few fights? Vast majority of boxing fans felt Pacquiao won the first fight vs. Bradley convincingly. In his next fight vs. Marquez, Pacquiao was clearly winning the fight; knocking Marquez down twice and appearing to be on his way towards a KO victory before Marquez ended the fight with a sneaky right hand. In Pacquiao's last fight vs. Brandon Rios, Pacquiao arguably won all 12 rounds. (One judge in the Rios fight did score all 12 rounds for Pacquiao.) 
• Experienced fighter whose defense and technical skills have improved over the years under HOF trainer Freddie Roach. Arguably outboxed both Bradley and Marquez despite taking losses in both fights.
• Unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big PPV fights.
• Crowd at the MGM Grand will be overwhelmingly pro-Pacquiao. This and the controversy from the previous fight vs. Bradley could influence the judges' scoring in favor of Pacquiao.

Negatives for Pacquiao

• Pacquiao is 35 years old and, while still an elite fighter, has lost some of the power and quickness he had in his prime. Pacquiao has lost two out of his last three fights (including a disputed decision vs. the man he will be fighting tonight) and hasn't scored a KO victory in 4.5 years (7 fights). Generally, boxers who rely on hand speed, quickness, and other athletic abilities don't age as well as pure technical boxers.
• Most feel Pacquiao won his first fight vs. Bradley but that fight was almost two years ago (June, 2012). Since then, Pacquiao has slipped while Bradley has improved and gained valuable experience in earning decisions vs. Ruslan Provodnikov and Juan Manuel Marquez. Bradley is in the prime of his career and coming off of arguably the best performance of his career in his split decision vs. Marquez.
• While most feel Pacquiao won his first fight vs. Bradley, many also feel Bradley made adjustments and improved over the second half of the fight. Bradley largely knows what to expect out of Pacquiao now; will Bradley's adjustments carry over in the fight tonight and allow him to earn a clearer decision?
• Pacquiao still has elite hand and foot speed but Bradley has comparable hand speed and is arguably more mobile on his feet than Manny. 
• Pacquiao is an excellent ambush fighter who boxes very well when coming towards his opponents but does not fight nearly as well when fighting backing up on his feet. There were spots in the first fight where Bradley used his jab effectively to back Pacquiao up in have him in a position where he couldn't fight as effectively. If Bradley is more effective with his jab and can get Pacquiao fighting off his back foot again, the fight will be competitive. 
• While Pacquiao's defense has improved over the years with Freddie Roach, Pacquiao is far from a defensive wizard. Pacquiao's aggression and awkward punching style often leaves him out-of-position, subjecting him to clean counter punching (as seen multiple times in his KO loss vs. Marquez). Pacquiao also isn't as mobile and doesn't roll with punches quite as well as he did in his prime. 
• Pacquiao significant distractions outside the ring have been well-publicized. Pacquiao is a full-time Congressman in the Phillipines when he's not boxing and as a recently born-again Christian, has made numerous lifestyle changes. Pacquiao has a long-term goal of being President of the Phillipines and has a baby boy due at the end of the month. Is his heart still really in boxing? 

Positives for Bradley

• Bradley is an undefeated fighter who has always found a way to win. Displayed tremendous heart and determination in pulling out recent victories vs. Manny Pacquiao, Ruslan Provodnikov, and Juan Manuel Marquez. Currently ranked the #3 fighter pound-for-pound in the sport, but is still hungry and feels he has something to prove after the controversy surrounding his first fight vs. Pacquiao.  
• Although highly controversial, Bradley already beat Pacquiao in June 2012. Since then, Bradley has improved as a fighter, gaining experience with wins vs. heavy puncher Provodnikov and HOF counter puncher Marquez, while Pacquiao has arguably slipped in recent years. Pacquiao is 35 and a few years past his prime, while Bradley is currently in his prime and highly confident after his three recent high-profile victories.
• Bradley won his last fight vs. Pacquiao despite injuring both of his feet early in the fight (fracturing his left foot in the 2nd round and twisting his right ankle in the 4th per Bradley). One would expect an injury-free Bradley to look more impressive in the rematch.
• Technically savvy boxer with the ability to adjust to his opponent's tendencies during fights. Made adjustments and improved over the 2nd half of the first Pacquiao fight. Bradley is familiar with Pacquiao's tendencies after the first fight so one can expect there will be at least some improvements in the rematch vs. Pacquiao, who is not as adept at making adjustments to his opponents. 
• Bradley is an elusive fighter with catlike quickness in both his hands and feet. Pacquiao often relies on his hand and foot speed advantages to win fights but at this point in their careers, Bradley arguably has better foot speed and, while he doesn't have the power, has hand speed comparable to Pacquiao's.
• High volume puncher. In their first fight Bradley threw more punches than Pacquiao, who is known for being an aggressive, high-volume puncher. Unlike Pacquiao, however, Bradley's defense is usually good enough that he doesn't leave himself open to a lot of counterpunching (his recent fight vs. Provodnikov being an exception).
• Incredible chin, as shown in his March 2013 fight vs. Provodnikov. Never been KO'ed and his knockdown in the 12th round vs. Provodnikov was the first time he's been knocked down in his career. 
• Not overly powerful (only 12 KOs in his career and 1 KO in past 7 years), but has enough power to keep his opponents honest. Almost knocked Marquez down late in the 12th round of his last fight.
• Current WBO welterweight title holder. Is extremely motivated to retain title and silence doubters after the highly controversial Pacquiao decision last year.

Negatives for Bradley

• Most feel Bradley lost his first fight vs. Pacquiao by a wide margin. If the rematch resembles the first fight (in which Bradley did not hurt Pacquiao and landed significantly less punches), Pacquiao will likely win an easy decision.
• Bradley has mediocre to below average punching power, which should allow Pacquiao to take more chances and be more aggressive in the fight. Bradley has stated publicly that he will take chances and go for the KO vs. Pacquiao but fighting a more aggressive style in this fight may increase the likelihood he gets hurt or knocked out. 
• Bradley is an elusive, defensively gifted fighter but Pacquiao has clear hand speed and power advantages that Bradley won't be able to evade for the full 12 rounds, especially since Pacquiao has the foot speed to catch up to Bradley.
• The MGM Grand crowd will be pro-Pacquiao, and there is a sentiment among many in boxing that Pacquiao got robbed in the first fight, so judges may be more inclined to score close rounds in Pacquiao's favor.

Summary

Tough fight to predict. In my opinion, this is a close 55/45 fight that could go either way, but I'd slightly favor Manny Pacquiao. On the one hand Pacquiao, despite losing the last fight vs. Bradley, did statistically dominate the first fight. Pacquiao outlanded Bradley in 10 out of 12 rounds, landed almost 100 more punches, landed the cleaner, more powerful punches, and landed at a much higher percentage than Bradley did. Most felt Manny won the first fight convincingly. Manny will make it a point to be more aggressive in this rematch and, despite some slippage at 35 years old, still has the clear hand speed and power advantage to dominate Bradley over 12 rounds. Bradley is an elusive tactician with great counter punching abilities but does not have the power (that Marquez had in his fights with Pacquiao) to make Manny think twice about coming forward and staying aggressive. Pacquiao is determined to redeem himself from the controversial split decision loss and set-up a possible future opportunity to avenge his loss vs. Marquez.

On the other hand, it's been almost two years since Pacquiao/Bradley I. Since then Pacquiao has suffered a KO loss and had what many felt was an unimpressive victory vs. Brandon Rios, while Bradley won a slugfest with Ruslan Provodnikov (a fight which was named the 2013 Fight of the Year by nearly every boxing outlet) and is coming off arguably the best fight of his career in outboxing Juan Manuel Marquez. Bradley is in his prime, confident, and fighting as well as he's ever fought in his career while Pacquiao is aging and is not quite the fighter he was a few years ago. Bradley claims he injured both feet early in the last fight so one would expect he should look more impressive in the rematch. Bradley also come on late in the last fight and has a better idea of what to expect in this fight, so one would also expect he'll have adjustments to neutralize Pacquiao's speed and power advantages. As determined as Pacquiao will be to avenge his loss, Bradley will likely be even more determined to redeem and prove himself as most felt he lost the fight and robbed Pacquiao of a clear decision.

There are solid reasons why either fighter could win but I think the key to this fight, like the last fight, is that Pacquiao at the end of the day still has the clear hand speed and power advantage, strengths Bradley won't be able to mitigate for the full 12 rounds with foot speed (because Manny is still fast enough to catch him) or counter punching (because Bradley doesn't have the power to keep Manny honest). Bradley is by nature a high volume fighter and will for some stretches of the fight be willing to stand in and exchange with Pacquiao. Bradley clearly has a chip on his shoulder and still feels he has something to prove so I see him fighting in this fight (at least in stretches) trying to exchange punches like he did vs. Provodnikov rather than jabbing and using movement like he did vs. Marquez. Fighting like he fought vs. Provodnikov will likely be to Bradley's detriment as it will allow Pacquiao to better exploit his speed and power advantages.  

With this said, Pacquiao is not quite as strong or as fast as he was a couple of years ago. If Bradley can make effective use of the jab (which he did brilliantly vs. Marquez and had some success with vs. Pacquiao) to keep Pacquiao on his back foot and use his feet to either stay out of range (as he did in the Marquez fight) or crowd Pacquiao on the inside (where Pacquiao's power is not as effective), Bradley may be able to outwork Pacquiao and pull off the decision. The course of this fight depends largely on 1) how Bradley approaches this fight and how he plans to mitigate Pacquiao's aggressiveness and 2) how much power and speed Pacquiao truly has left in the tank.

Not knowing for sure how Bradley will approach this fight (i.e., whether he chooses to exchange or chooses to jab and stay mobile), I think Pacquiao's clear speed and power advantages get him the victory in this matchup a slight majority of the time (between say 55-60% of the time). I believe Pacquiao will probably win this fight. However, I do believe with his technical savvy and high volume workrate that Bradley is enough of a live underdog to make a +220 wager on Bradley the best bet to make.

Prediction: Pacquiao by decision

Best Bet: Bradley to win (+220)

Alvarado vs. Provodnikov: postfight analysis (scoring recap + summary)

Outcome: Provodnikov defeats Alvarado by RTD at the end of the 10th round to become interim WBO light welterweight champion
Judge Scorecards (at time of stoppage): Dennis Nelson 97-90 | Robert Hoyle 98-90 | Levi Martinez 96-92

Master Class Boxing Scorecard: 96-93 (Provodnikov)

(click here to view CompuBox PunchStats)

Round-by-Round Scoring Recap

Round 1: Clear round for Provodnikov. Provodnikov moving really well, cutting off ring and applying pressure much better than I thought he would vs. the more mobile Alvarado. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 10-9 Provodnikov

Round 2: Alvarado moving much better in this round, using his jab to keep Provodnikov at bay. This was how I expected Alvarado to come out and fight. Clear round for Alvarado. For the most part in the first 5-6 rounds, Alvarado did successfully outbox Provodnikov with lateral movement and timely jabs and combinations which I'd thought would be his formula to winning this fight. 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 19-19 Even

Round 3: 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 29-28 Alvarado

Round 4:  10-10, Score: 39-38 Alvarado

Round 5:  10-9 Alvarado, Score: 49-47 Alvarado

Round 6: Provodnikov landed the more vicious shots in this round, but was clearly outworked by Alvarado. 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 59-56 Alvarado

Round 7: Alvarado won the first half of the round staying busy behind his jab but Provodnikov tagged Alvarado with a series of vicious shots throughout the second half of the round to take Round 7. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 68-66 Alvarado

Round 8: Provodnikov's pressure proves to be too overwhelming for Alvarado. Alvarado down twice in this round, the first two times he's been knocked down in his career. To his credit, Alvarado got up and fought very bravely but this was the beginning of the end for him. 10-7 Provodnikov, Score: 76-75 Provodnikov

Round 9:  Provodnikov continues to apply heavy pressure on Alvarado. Alvarado's recovered a bit from the two knockdowns in the previous round but is having difficulty withstanding the pressure. Clear round for Provodnikov. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 86-84 Provodnikov

Round 10:  Another clear round for Provodnikov. Alvarado is still attempting to move and jab (which he had success with in the earlier rounds) but Provodnikov's pressure is too much. Alvarado is getting tagged with body shots and combinations. Alvarado hits Provodnikov with a few solid shots but Provodnikov walks right through his punches and keeps attacking. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 96-93 Provodnikov

In between the 10th and 11th rounds, Alvarado retires on his stool.

Postfight Summary

Prediction: Alvarado by decision
Outcome: Provodnikov by RTD

I predicted the outcome of this fight incorrectly but the dynamics of the fight were generally what I expected. In my prefight analysis summary, I said the fight would come down to Alvarado's lateral movement and ability to box effectively on the outside vs. Provodnikov's high-pressure, power punching style. I felt that Alvarado would likely earn the decision by using his foot speed advantage to box outside and keep Provodnikov at bay with his length and power, but that there was a decent chance Provodnikov's pressure would overwhelm Alvarado resulting in Provodnikov getting the win by TKO/KO.

After Round 1 it was clear to me that I: 1) underestimated Provodnikov's lateral movement and ability to pressure more mobile fighters and 2) overestimated Alvarado's foot speed and ability to keep Provodnikov at bay. Provodnikov cut off the ring extremely well in this round and set the tone for how he'd wear Alvarado down round by round. I'd thought Alvarado would be able to use lateral movement and boxing skills to carry the fight similar to Tim Bradley in his more successful rounds vs. Provodnikov and similar to his second fight vs. Brandon Rios. The problem with my analysis was that Mike Alvarado does not have anywhere near the lateral movement and boxing skills Tim Bradley has and Provodnikov is a better pressure fighter than Rios and packs an even harder punch (especially when going to the body).

Alvarado actually did have a lot of success early in the fight boxing on the outside, confusing Provodnikov by switching to a southpaw stance and keeping Provodnikov honest with lead right hands and uppercuts (after 6 rounds I actually had Alvarado winning the fight by 3 points), but Provodnikov's foot movement and ability to cut Alvarado off in the ring was a lot better than what I thought it would be. Alvarado was outlanding Provodnikov in most of the early rounds, but Provodnikov wore Alvarado down round-by-round with vicious power shots and eventually caught up to him in the 8th round, knocking him down twice (the first two knockdowns of Alvarado's career) in what would signal the beginning of the end of the fight.

Another key to Provodnikov winning the fight was his excellent chin. There were a few spots in the early rounds of the fight where Alvarado did stand in and brawl; Alvarado actually had good success in most of these exchanges and landed nearly half (49.7%) of his power punches over the first six rounds of the fight. The difference in the fight was that Provodnikov's chin was able to withstand those power punches (he actually laughed many of them off), while Provodnikov's power eventually broke Alvarado down.

This was a highly entertaining fight which should leave fight fans looking forward to seeing both Provodnikov and Alvarado (especially Provodnikov) fight again. Provodnikov has proven that he's a better boxer than a lot of people give him credit for and, under Freddie Roach's tutelage, the sky's the limit.  However, it remains to be seen whether Provodnikov can defeat the uber-elite boxers in his weight range (Mayweather, Pacquaio, Bradley, Marquez, Garcia, Matthysse). Provodnikov's defense is still very suspect... Alvarado did land 46% of his power shots in the fight while Bradley landed 43% of his power shots in his fight vs. Provodnikov back in March. As outstanding as Provodnikov's chin is (and it's possible he has the best chin in the sport), he will never be an elite boxer if he continues to allow his opponents to land power punches at such a high percentage. His defense must improve, especially given the plethora of power punchers in the light welterweight and welterweight divisions he fights in. 

Hope you enjoyed this blog! Our next analysis will discuss the October 19th fight between Bernard Hopkins and Karo Murat.

Bradley vs. Marquez: postfight analysis

Outcome: Bradley defeats Marquez by split decision to retain WBO welterweight title
Judge Scorecards: Robert Hoyle 115-113 | Patricia Morse Jarman 116-112 | Glenn Farman 113-115

Master Class Boxing Scorecard: 116-112 (Bradley)

(click here to view judges' round-by-round scoring)

(click here to view CompuBox PunchStats)

(click here to view full postfight press conference)

Round-by-Round Scoring Recap

Round 1: Close, feel-out round. Bradley threw more punches (which would be the norm throughout the fight) and established his jab early but Marquez landed a few more punches than Bradley and landed the cleaner, harder punches. Marquez landed a few left hooks and uppercuts to edge out a very close round. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 10-9 Marquez

Round 2: Clear round for Bradley. Bradley jabbed very effectively and used lateral movement well to elude Marquez's counter-punching skills. Bradley landed a hard right hand, solid body shot to the liver area and got the best of Marquez in a nice exchange of punches towards the end of the round. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 19-19 Even

Round 3: Very close round. Marquez showed good timing and landed the harder, more accurate shots but Bradley continued to jab effectively, throwing and landing more punches in the round. Bradley moved well and continued to control the pace. Close, but key to round was Bradley outworked Marquez 38-25 in punches thrown and landed 10 punches to Marquez's 6. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 29-28 Bradley

Round 4: Another close round. Bradley is still controlling the pace of the fight with his left jab and movement and is continuing to outwork Marquez in terms of punches thrown and landed. However, Marquez landed the more solid, accurate punches in the round and got the better of Bradley in a nice exchange near the end of the round. Referee Robert Byrd briefly stopped the fight in the first half of the round and instructed Marquez's corner to wipe the excess vaseline off his body. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 38-38 Even

Round 5: Yet another competitive round that follows the pattern of most of the previous rounds. Bradley is having success with the left jab and is clearly controlling the pace of the fight. Again Bradley is outworking Marquez, throwing and landing more punches (and landing at a higher percentage than Marquez). When Marquez is landing, his punches tend to be more accurate and powerful than the shots Bradley landed but Bradley has not been affected by Marquez's power and outworked Marquez enough to clearly win the round (though the round was somewhat close). Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 48-47 Bradley

Round 6: More of the same. Bradley is continuing to outwork Marquez and is still controlling the fight with his left jab and foot movement. Marquez is still landing a few solid, accurate shots but Bradley is countering Marquez's punches with right hands and left hooks of his own. Bradley is consistently beating Marquez to the punch with his hand speed, countering well when Marquez throws punches. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 58-56 Bradley

Round 7: Another round very similar to previous rounds. Marquez is landing solid punches in spots but Bradley is consistently outworking Marquez and controlling the pace of the fight with his jabs, lateral movement, and hands speed. In this round, Bradley throws and lands more jabs than in any of the previous rounds. Bradley is the more active fighter in this round (as he's seemingly been in every round of the fight thus far) and his hand and foot speed advantage is becoming more apparent. Bradley landed 19 punches to Marquez's 13 in Round 7. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 68-65 Bradley

Round 8: Marquez lands a few solid right hands, including a hard body shot towards the end of the round but again Bradley is controlling the pace of the fight, outworking Marquez with his jabs and speed advantage. Bradley lands a few multiple punch combinations to take the round. Neither fighter's punches is hurting the other but Bradley's work rate and ability to elude Marquez's counter punches are the difference in this round and the fight overall. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 78-74 Bradley

Round 9:  Clear round for Marquez. Marquez started the round aggressive and landed the more accurate and powerful punches. Marquez outlands Bradley for the first time in the fight since Round 1 (22 punches landed for Marquez; 16 in favor of Bradley). Marquez is effective with his straight right hand and lands a couple of nice combinations to win the round going away. This is Marquez's best round in the fight. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 87-84 Bradley

Round 10:  Most exciting round of the fight thus far. Numerous flurries of punches in this round. Bradley scored a few nice combinations in the round but Marquez countered with his own, which got the crowd (a pro-Marquez crowd which up to this round had been frustrated with the lack of action from both fighters) behind Marquez again. Marquez landed a few solid shots in this round, including a right uppercut early and a clean body shot towards the end of the round. However, Bradley appeared to control the round overall with (similar to previous rounds) his work rate, jab, and movement in the ring. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 97-93 Bradley

Round 11: Marquez is noticeably more active in this round than he's been in most previous rounds, stalking Bradley and appearing to throw and land more meaningful punches overall. Bradley is less active (perhaps a bit fatigued) and mostly resorts to landing single shots before retreating. Marquez lands a few nice body shots in the round. Neither fighter lands any huge punches but Marquez wins the round primarily due to lack of activity from Bradley, who was mostly on the defensive. (It's likely Bradley knows he's ahead and is playing it safe.) Marquez had a 14-4 advantage in power shots landed in Round 11. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 106-103 Marquez

Round 12:  Close round. Marquez continues to stay aggressive in this round, stalking Bradley who is using good movement to avoid Marquez's aggression. As in previous rounds, Bradley is having success using his jab and movement to elude Marquez's advances. Bradley is also countering Marquez's aggression effectively with some solid shots. This was an even round, perhaps with Marquez slightly ahead until the final heavy exchange of punches towards the end of the round which Bradley got the best of, including a left hook that almost sends Marquez to the canvas. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 116-112 Bradley

Postfight Summary

This fight basically went as I predicted in my prefight analysis. Bradley clearly learned his lesson from the Provodnikov fight, using his speed advantage, defensive abilities, and jab to stay control the pace of the fight and outbox Marquez. Although Marquez tended to land the more crisp and accurate punches when he connected (Marquez did land more power punches than Bradley according to CompuBox stats), his overall activity was low compared to Bradley, who threw and landed more punches than Marquez. In terms of scoring, the difference in the fight for me was the middle four rounds (Rounds 5-8), all of which I gave to Bradley. 

Bradley has outstanding lateral movement and a low center of gravity elusiveness which made it difficult for Marquez to land any meaningful punches the whole fight. Marquez did land more power punches than Bradley in the fight, but Bradley was never in any serious danger during the fight. Marquez is one of the great counter punchers of this era but, as I expected, Bradley's lateral movement, speed advantage, and jab effectively neutralized Marquez's counter punching skills. If Bradley had fought the same fight he fought vs. Provodnikov (i.e., stood in the pocket and exchanged punches), Marquez probably would've won the fight. But it's very difficult for a counter puncher to outbox someone with such a significant foot and hand speed advantage and enough ring savvy to use those advantages to elude counters. There were quite a few close, competitive rounds but I thought Bradley clearly won the fight. (Interesting fact: the official judges disagreed on how to score 7 out of the 12 rounds in the fight, including 3 out of the first 4 rounds and 4 out of the last 5 rounds.) 

Bradley is still undefeated and is now Ring Magazine's #3 pound-for-pound boxer. So what's next for Bradley? Floyd Mayweather and Adrien Broner seem unlikely as they are both affiliated with Golden Boy Promotions, a direct competitor of Top Rank Promotions, the promotional company Tim Bradley is affiliated with. (Golden Boy and Top Rank have an oft-publicized acrimonious relationship.) It would seem the winner of the Pacquaio/Rios fight in November or the winner of the Alvarado/Provodnikov fight on HBO would be the most likely candidates. 

Hope you enjoyed this blog! Our next analysis will discuss the October 19th fight between Mike Alvarado and Ruslan Provodnikov.

Bradley vs. Marquez: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Timothy Bradley (30-0-0-1, 12 KOs) vs. Juan Manuel Marquez (55-6-1, 40 KOs)
Location: Thomas & Mack Center (UNLV), Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: October 12, 2013
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Marquez -140, Bradley +120 (5 Dimes, 10/12/13)
Purse: Marquez: $4 million, Bradley: $4.1 million (Note: Marquez guaranteed at least an additional $2 million from Mexican television rights and other sources of revenue so effective guaranteed purse for Marquez is $6 million)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Marquez #3 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked welterweight), Bradley #8 ranked pound-for-pound (#4 ranked welterweight).
Style: Marquez: Orthodox, Bradley: Orthodox

Positives for Marquez

• Excellent counter puncher. Unquestionably one of the best counter punchers of this generation. 
• Master technician. Outstanding technical savvy with ability to adjust to opponent's tendencies during fight.
• Not as quick as Bradley or Manny Pacquiao, but has quick hand speed and reflexes.
• Highly accurate counter puncher with excellent timing. Although a counter puncher by nature, will be aggressive when he needs to be. 
• Versatile fighter with good knockout power in both hands. 
• Significantly more experienced than Bradley. Participated in more title and big money PPV fights than Bradley.
• Fights with tremendous heart; seems to fight at his best in adverse situations.
• Crowd at Thomas & Mack Center will be overwhelmingly pro-Marquez, which could influence not only the fight, but the judges' scoring.
• With the exception of his fight vs. current #1 pound-four-pound Floyd Mayweather, has been highly competitive in every fight of his 20-year career. Fight vs. Floyd was only non-controversial loss of career. First pro fight of career was 1st round disqualification loss (due to headbutt) to boxer he was heavily favored against.
• At 40 years old, stronger than he's ever been. Marquez's new strength and conditioning coach (Angel Heredia) has helped greatly improve Marquez's strength and stamina.
• Future first ballot Hall of Famer. Arguably one of the top 5 Mexican boxers of all time. Arguably the #3 boxer pound-for-pound fighting today, behind Floyd Mayweather and Andre Ward.    
• Has a Hall of Fame trainer (Nacho Beristain), who has trained him since he was eight years old.

Negatives for Marquez

• Though he has shown improvement with age, Marquez is 40 years old. Marquez is past his prime, and hasn't fought in 10 months, one of the longest layoffs of his career. There is a possibility his age may show in this fight.
•  Marquez is quick, but he's at a clear hand and foot speed disadvantage to Bradley. Marquez had even greater speed disadvantage vs. Pacquiao but Bradley is more technically savvy than Pacquiao and usually doesn't allow himself to get out of defensive position and open to counter punching.
• Marquez has very good power in both hands and has gotten stronger over the past couple of years but his power is overrated. Marquez does not hit as hard as Provodnikov and likely will not be able to KO Bradley (unless Bradley is still feeling effects from Provodnikov fight which is highly possible). 
• Is Marquez a cheater? Fighters rarely gain strength as they move up in weight; yet Marquez appears to have done so. He's bulked up significantly over the past couple of years, yet has retained his quickness (and has arguably gotten even quicker) which is highly unusual given his age and the fact that athletes who bulk up almost always lose some quickness. Marquez's strength gains have come under new trainer Angel Heredia, who admitted before a federal grand jury that he supplied illegal substances to numerous elite athletes, including former Olympic gold medalists Marion Jones and Tim Montgomery. (He was the key witness in their cases.) Heredia went to the extent of changing his last name a few years ago in an attempt to escape the doping controversy.

Positives for Bradley

• Bradley is an undefeated fighter who has displayed tremendous heart and willpower in his last couple of fights vs. Manny Pacquiao and Ruslan Provodnikov
• Although Marquez is quick, Bradley has a clear quickness, hand speed, and foot speed advantage.Though his fight-of-the year candidate match vs. Provodnikov turned into a brawl, Bradley can be a highly elusive fighter. Bradley moves very well and has incredible stamina due to his conditioning.
• Technically savvy. Like Marquez, has ability to adjust to opponent's tendencies during fight. Not as technically savvy as Marquez but, like Marquez, is one of the best counter punchers in boxing today.
• High volume puncher. Unlike Pacquiao, however, Bradley's defense is usually good enough that he doesn't leave himself open to a lot of counterpunching (his last fight vs. Provodnikov being an exception).
• Incredible chin, as shown in his last fight vs. Provodnikov. Never been KO'ed and his knockdown in the 12th round vs. Provodnikov was the first time he's been knocked down in his career.
• Is a naturally bigger man than Marquez. On fight night will weigh at least a few pounds more than Marquez.
• Not overly powerful (only 12 KOs in his career and 1 KO in past 6 years), but has enough power to keep his opponents honest.
• Currently in his prime and has a 10-year age advantage vs. Marquez (30 years old vs. 40 years old).
• Current WBO welterweight title holder. Is extremely motivated to retain title and silence doubters after the highly controversial Pacquiao decision last year.

Negatives for Bradley

• Is Bradley still feeling the effects of the Provodnikov fight a few months ago? Bradley admitted having headaches, balance problems, and slurred speech for weeks after the fight. There is an established history of boxers losing confidence and becoming gun shy after brutal wars such as the Provodnikov fight. His fight vs. Provodnikov may leave him more susceptible to being KO'ed vs. Marquez.
• While a very technically sound boxer and counterpuncher, Bradley is not as technically skilled/savvy as Marquez. Marquez is also the much more experienced boxer.
• Bradley has decent power, but is power is far from great. Bradley will likely not KO Marquez; he will have to win the fight by decision.

Summary

In my opinion, Bradley has learned his lesson from the Provodnikov fight and will use his speed advantage and lateral movement to set the pace early (as opposed to engaging in a sustained brawl with an all-time great counter puncher). Bradley is a high volume, aggressive puncher but has the quickness, speed, and elusive defensive ability to stay out of trouble vs. Marquez's effective counter punching ability. Bradley has incredible stamina so should be able to move effectively and avoid the brunt of Marquez's power for 12 rounds. Marquez will likely be effective at times, but Bradley has a great chin (much better than Pacquiao's or anyone else Marquez has ever fought that matter with the exception of maybe Marco Antonio Barrera) and should be able to withstand any pressure Marquez puts on him with his chin and lateral movement.When fighting smart, Bradley is only one level below Mayweather in terms of elusiveness and ability to defend against pressure; which is excellent as Mayweather is certainly one of the greats, if not the all-time greatest in that regard. 

I think Bradley's punch volume, hand and foot speed advantage, and defensive elusiveness will overcome Marquez's counter punching ability and his advantages in technical skill and power to win the fight. My only major concern is whether or not Bradley's skills and/or confidence have diminished as a result of the Provodnikov fight, a brutal fight which, by his own admission, greatly affected him both mentally and physically.

Prediction: Bradley by decision