Thursday, May 19, 2016

Hernandez-Harrison vs. Dallas Jr.: postfight scoring recap and analysis

Fight: Dusty Hernandez-Harrison (29-0, 16 KOs) vs. Mike Dallas Jr. (21-3-1, 10 KOs)
Location: Washington D.C.
Date: May 13, 2016
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: BET
Line: Hernandez-Harrison -550, Dallas Jr. +400 (5 Dimes, 5/13/16)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Hernandez-Harrison - Not ranked, Dallas Jr. - Not ranked
Style: Hernandez-Harrison: Orthodox, Dallas Jr.: Orthodox
Referee: Malik Waleed

Outcome: Harrison-Hernandez draws Dallas Jr. (split decision draw)
Judge Scorecards: Tammye Jenkins 95-94 (Hernandez-Harrison) | Paul Wallace 96-92 (Dallas Jr.)| Wayne Smith 94-94 (draw)

Master Class Boxing Scorecard: 96-92 (Dallas Jr.)
BET Scorecard: 95-93 (Dallas Jr.)

(click here to view judges' round-by-round scoring)
(click here to view full fight)

Round-by-Round Scoring Recap


Round 1:  10-9 Dallas Jr. (clear), Score: 10-9 Dallas Jr.

Round 2:  10-9 Dallas Jr. (clear), Score: 20-18 Dallas Jr.

Round 3:  10-9 Dallas Jr. (clear), Score: 30-27 Dallas Jr.

Rounds 1-3 were much of the same  - Dallas moving well, staying outside of Dusty's range while outboxing Dusty with activity and hand speed. Dallas, the smaller man in the fight, was mostly the aggressor and landed a wide variety punches - most notably consistently landing straight lefts to the body and combinations to Dusty's face. Dusty was patient and stayed mostly behind a high guard defense the first few rounds, at times stalking Dallas but never throwing many punches (and generally not landing more than one punch at a time). Dusty got a bit more aggressive in the 2nd and 3rd rounds landing some good power shots to the body at times, but Dallas clearly outworked him by beating him to the punch with his hand speed advantage and staying out of range with his foot speed.

Round 4:  Dallas is still outworking Dusty with hand speed and movement, especially in the early part of the round. Dallas still throwing nice combination punches (some of which land, some of which are getting blocked by Dusty's guard)  while Dusty is still generally landing only one punch at a time. Some good exchanges towards the middle and end of the round - Dusty drops his guard and gets more aggressive, landing some solid one-punch power shots in the second half of the round. A couple of nice power right hands by Dusty to end the round. Dallas definitely threw and landed more punches in this round but Dusty appeared to land the more meaningful shots. 10-9 Hernandez-Harrison (close), Score: 39-37 Dallas Jr.

Round 5:  Noticeable abrasion on the left side of Dusty's face from combinations landed by Dallas in the earlier rounds. Dusty more aggressive, throwing more punches to start off the round but Dallas still outworking Dusty with a wide variety of punches - some of which are getting blocked but many of which are getting through. Dallas is smaller but is clearly the more skilled boxer. As in the earlier rounds, Dallas is consistently beating Dusty to the punch and largely staying out of Dusty's range with good foot movement. Dusty is dropping his hands (which he also did in the last round) as he is stalking Dallas. In the latter part of the round Dallas lands a nice power right shot with a follow-up left that sends Dusty to the ground. Dusty gets up and round ends shortly after. Clear round for Dallas. 10-8 Dallas Jr. (clear), Score: 49-45 Dallas Jr.

Round 6:  Dallas loading up and throwing a lot of big power shots early in the round with Dusty - likely still a bit dazed from the knockdown towards the end of the last round - back behind his high guard trying to defend himself. Dallas landing all the shots in this round, both to Dusty's face and body area. Dallas stalking Dusty trying to end it. Dusty gathers himself towards the middle of the round but hardly throws or lands any punches in the round, staying mostly behind his high guard. 10-9 Dallas Jr. (clear), Score: 59-54 Dallas Jr.

Round 7:  Dallas outboxing Dusty early, varying his punches well and moving before Dusty can set his feet and get off. Dusty does land a decent flurry in the middle of the round but Dallas outworking him still. Towards the end of the round Dusty lands a late, cheap shot after the referee tells the fighters to break. (It's possible Dusty didn't hear the referee but he probably should have been deducted a point there.) 10-9 Dallas Jr. (clear), Score: 69-63 Dallas Jr.

Round 8:  More of the same - Dallas still outboxing and outworking Dusty. Dallas is mostly just too fast for Dusty. In the middle of the round Dusty lands a couple of left hands that appear to be a bit low and send Dallas to his knees holding his cup. Referee doesn't clearly see the punches and rules (much to Dallas's and the crowd's surprise) a knockdown after Dallas drops to the ground. A bit of a closer round due to Dusty landing a few body shots but Dallas seems to get the better of Dusty through the remainder of the round. Still scored the round 10-8 for Dusty (as opposed to 10-9) due to the ruled knockdown and the round being close. 10-8 Hernandez-Harrison (close), Score: 77-73 Dallas Jr.

Round 9:  Dusty coming out this round more aggressive with lead left jabs (probably should have thrown more of these earlier in the fight). Dallas still outboxing Dusty with combinations and speed but Dusty is being much more aggressive here, probably knowing he is behind on the scorecards. Dallas looks a bit tired but is still outworking Dusty, throwing and landing more punches. Dusty lands a couple of nice body shots followed by a right uppercut late in the round. Dallas fires back with some nice combinations. Harrison lands a nice flurry towards the end of the round before Dallas counters with his own flurry right before the bell. Dusty appears to be bleeding from both nostrils. Close round but Dallas still throwing and landing more punches, and is landing the cleaner shots. 10-9 Dallas Jr. (close), Score: 87-82 Dallas Jr.

Round 10:  Both fighters come out with some urgency. Dallas still more active and landing more punches but Dusty landing some good shots of his own. In the middle of the round, Dusty backs Dallas into the corner and lands a nice combination. Some good exchanges here overall - probably most entertaining round of the fight. Dusty lands a nice flurry in the latter part of the round; both fighters exchange combinations combinations to end the round. Dallas probably landed more punches in this round (as he did in nearly every other round) but Dusty landed some solid power punches here. 10-9 Hernandez-Harrison (close), Score: 96-92 Dallas Jr.

Postfight Analysis


I'm generally not one to play the "robbery" card as I recognize that a range of scores is usually reasonable - but this was absolutely a robbery. Dallas very clearly outboxed Dusty - both throwing and landing more punches while displaying superior skill and hand speed over the course of the 10 rounds. Dallas moved very well on his feet and largely stayed out of range  vs. a relatively inactive, somewhat flat-footed Dusty who rarely landed more than one punch at a time. I actually felt Dallas won as many as 9 out of the 10 rounds and - with the exception of the 8th round (where Dusty was awarded a questionable knockdown) - felt that every round that could be scored for Dusty was a close round, while there were several rounds that Dallas won pretty clearly. In particular, I'm not sure why 2 out of the 3 judges scored the 3rd and 7th rounds for Dusty, rounds I felt were clear rounds for Dallas.  

Watching from ringside, I felt bad for Dallas after the fight. This is a guy who's been robbed before in a previous fight vs. a top contender in Mauricio Herrera. This is also a guy who suffered a 1st round KO loss vs. feared power puncher Lucas Matthysse, a fight he took on a few weeks notice shortly after his father passed away from leukemia. After the KO loss and his father's passing he spent a couple of years away from boxing, only recently returning  to put on perhaps one of the better performances of his career this past Friday... only to be robbed again. Dallas came into this fight vs. Dusty the more experienced, skilled fighter and it clearly showed on fight night.

On paper, it's understandable why Dusty is such a highly regarded prospect. Dusty is a 3-time National Junior Golden Gloves champion. He at one point a few years ago turned down an opportunity for the Olympics to become the youngest professional fighter in the United States at 17. He is athletic, has excellent height and length for his weight class, and is well-rounded in terms of having pretty good boxing skills, speed, and power. He's been praised by the likes of Mike Tyson and Andre Ward and is considered by some to be the best boxing prospect out of the Washington D.C. area since Sugar Ray Leonard. At 21 years old, Dusty also already has multi-year sponsorship deals from Fila and GEICO.

But Dusty's impressive amateur pedigree and skills on paper have - thus far - not translated well to his professional career. He's undefeated (29-0-1) but has been matched up vs. embarrassingly soft competition to this point in his career. Prior to fighting Dallas, Dusty had yet to face a fighter ranked even in the top 250 (as ranked by BoxRec) in his weight class and less than 10 of the 30 fighters he's fought thus far in his career have a winning record. Despite the putrid competition Dusty has actually been knocked down multiple times in his career, which includes getting knocked down 3.5 years ago in his hometown by a fighter who currently has a record of 3-24, and his most recent fight vs. Dallas - a solid boxer but B or C-level fighter who hadn't fought any legitimate competition in over 2 years.

What's especially concerning is Dallas, who only has 10 KOs in 26 fights, was the smaller boxer in this matchup but at times took the fight to the bigger, stronger Dusty and was able to score a 5th round knockdown (which could've even been a stoppage if there had been more time left in the round). If smaller guys like Dallas and no-name journeymen like Michael Balasi and Marqus Johnson can score knockdowns vs. Dusty you'd have to assume the top guys at 147 with legit punching power, or even decent punching power at 154 (a weight class where Dusty has fought quite a bit in the past and will presumably return to as he gets older) won't have too much trouble putting Dusty to the canvas with his questionable chin and poor head movement.

Dusty is very young and, at 21 years old, still has plenty of years to improve but chin resistance and speed (two attributes that were noticeably lacking in his fight vs. Dallas) usually don't improve over the course of a career. Dusty will have to work quite a bit on improving his punch output, head movement, and overall boxing technique if he wants to compete with the top contenders at 147 and 154. Dusty looked good in spots vs. Dallas with his pressure and power punching, but this was primarily due to his size advantage - he for the most part was outclassed and looked flat-footed vs. Dallas, who is a solid fighter but far from one of the elite guys in Dusty's weight class.

We'll have to see what the future holds for Dusty, but he may need to take a step down in competition and further hone his skills against weaker competition if he wants to avoid risking a loss in the very near future.

The draw this past Friday in D.C. was unfortunately the latest in a line of very questionable scorecards out of the D.C. area - going back to the Amir Khan/Lamont Peterson fight in 2011 (controversial split decision for Peterson after two questionable point deductions from Khan for pushing) and the Badou Jack/Lucian Bute draw last month.











Saturday, May 7, 2016

Canelo vs. Khan: prefight analysis and betting prediction



Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (46-1-1, 32 KOs) vs. Amir Khan (31-3, 19 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 7, 2016
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 155 lbs
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Middleweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez -475, Khan +420 (5 Dimes, 5/7/16)
Purse: Alvarez: $3.5 million, Khan: $2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Khan: #2 ranked welterweight
Style: Canelo: Orthodox, Khan: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless


Why you should watch this fight


Canelo vs. Khan is (by far) the biggest fight of the year thus far and is the first boxing event at MGM Resorts' brand new T-Mobile Arena, which just opened in April. This will be Canelo's first middleweight title defense after defeating Miguel Cotto last November for the WBC, Ring Magazine, and lineal middleweight titles. Will this fight be the precursor to a megafight with Gennady Golovkin later this year or early 2017? Can Canelo decisively defeat a fighter in Khan who - by most accounts - is the more technically skilled fighter with a clear hand and foot speed advantage? In the recent past, Canelo has had issues with mobile fighters like Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Erislandy Lara; Khan is generally considered quicker than both.

This is the first PPV fight for Khan and stands a good chance of being the defining fight of his career; can Khan become only the 5th boxer in history to win a major world title in his first fight after jumping up two weight classes (Roberto Duran, Roy Jones Jr., Robert Guerrero, Adrien Broner) and the first to do so in the middleweight division? If Khan beats Canelo, he would become only the 2nd boxer to win a lineal championship in his first fight after jumping up two divisions (Duran) - that would be an extremely impressive feat even considering the fight is being fought at a catchweight of 155 lbs.

Why Canelo Alvarez will win


There are many reasons why Canelo is around a 5-1 favorite to win this fight.

Canelo is the younger, stronger boxer (and in fact is likely the strongest boxer Khan has ever faced) facing a boxer in Khan who has a notorious history of chin (as well as other fundamental defensive) problems resulting in him being knocked down and/or knocked out multiple times by lesser punchers than Canelo. Canelo is the naturally bigger boxer fighting in a weight range he is comfortable at (150-155 lbs) and has been fighting at for over five years while Khan is moving up two weight classes to fight at 155 lbs for the first time after fighting his entire career at 140 and 147. Khan has pretty good power but how his power will translate after moving up two weight classes is a huge question mark, especially against a bigger fighter like Canelo who has proven to have a very good chin. (Canelo has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career.)

Canelo is in his prime and appears to still be improving with each fight. Although known and marketed as a big puncher, Canelo is a (very) high IQ, skilled boxer who, per CompuBox statistics, is one of the most efficient fighters in the sport. He is a patient, but highly accurate puncher who throws combination punches in particular very well. Canelo is also an excellent body puncher who will likely make it a point to attack Khan's body throughout the course of the fight. Khan is very mobile but it will be nearly impossible for him to elude Canelo's aggressive accuracy and power for a full 12 rounds - especially given his penchant for staying at inside distance a bit too long while executing his quick combinations.

Canelo cuts off the ring pretty well for someone not too fleet of foot (he had success cutting off the ring vs. Lara in spots) and, while not quite as fast as Khan, has very underrated hand speed.

No one would consider Canelo a defensive wizard but his defense - in particular his upper body and head movement - have noticeably improved in recent fights. Canelo has also never been knocked down or knocked out in his career, which has included many fights vs. boxers much bigger and stronger than Khan. It's tough to envision Khan - who is fighting at middleweight for the first time in his career after spending his entire career at junior welterweight and welterweight - posing a threat to Canelo in terms of punching power.

On Cinco de Mayo weekend in Las Vegas, the crowd at the new T-Mobile Arena will be decidedly pro-Canelo, which could influence the fight inside the ring (i.e., inspiration for Canelo to fight well in front of a largely Mexican/Mexican-American crowd) and the judging outside the ring. Judges' scorecards in Canelo fights have tended to strongly favor Canelo - even in fights considered close by the general public. (See the scoring in Canelo's recent competitive fights vs. Cotto, Lara, and Austin Trout as examples.) Even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw; so if this fight ends up being much more competitive than expected (which is highly possible given Khan's outstanding offensive skill and advantage in speed) don't be at all surprised to see the fight still scored comfortably for Canelo. 


Why Amir Khan will win


Despite the clear strength and size discrepancies, Khan does have some advantages over Canelo which could lead to an upset.

Khan is a very gifted offensive fighter with some of the fastest hands in boxing. He is considered by many to be the more technically skilled boxer in this matchup and enters tonight's fight vs. Canelo with a clear hand and foot speed advantage. Khan does have a well documented history of chin problems - 2 of his 3 losses have come via early round KO to fighters who were considered significant underdogs - but his defensive discipline and movement appear to have at least improved a bit in the 3.5 years he's trained under Virgil Hunter. If Khan can move intelligently and maintain range vs. Canelo through 12 rounds, he has a strong chance of outboxing Canelo with his speed and winning the fight on points.

Khan has arguably never been outboxed in his professional career, with all of his losses coming by either early round KO (Breidis Prescott, Danny Garcia) or by a very controversial split decision which included multiple questionable point deductions (Lamont Peterson). If Khan keeps the fight outside at a manageable distance, I'd expect the generally high-output, jab-happy Khan to outwork the relatively low-output, patient Canelo with his advantages in speed, reach (Khan possesses a slight 1/2" reach advantage), and skill.

Like Canelo, Khan is also an accurate puncher who attacks the body very well; Canelo has experienced stamina issues in the past and is prone to taking stretches of rounds off as a pacing mechanism so if Khan can effectively attack Canelo's body, he could weaken Canelo's punching power in the later rounds, where many are expecting Canelo to catch up to Khan and knock him out.

As an experienced and (arguably) more skilled boxer, no one should be surprised if there are large stretches of tonight's fight where Khan flat-out outboxes Canelo - especially in the early rounds. Canelo's defense has improved in recent fights but an ultra-quick offensive talent like Khan likely won't find it too difficult (as a comparatively quick Mayweather didn't) in spots to land punches vs. a somewhat flat-footed Canelo.

Although no longer undefeated or considered a top 5 pound-for-pound boxer (as he was a few years ago when he was a unified junior welterweight champion and defended his title five times over the course of two years), at age 29 Khan is still in his prime and still one of the best offensive fighters in the sport. Khan has nearly always jumped out to wide early leads due to his unique combination of skill and speed; the question in this fight is simply whether he (and his very questionable chin) will be able to elude danger for a full 12 rounds vs. a bigger, stronger, top-level power puncher in Canelo - especially given that he's jumped up two weight classes and fighting for the first time as a middleweight.

Win or lose, Khan always fights with tremendous heart and determination (though this is sometimes to his detriment, as clearly seen in the fights he's lost by KO). Tonight's fight is by far the biggest of Khan's career - it's his first PPV fight, biggest payday, and first fight where he's coming in as the underdog so everyone watching should expect an extremely focused, highly determined Khan in the ring Saturday night. 

Prefight Analysis


If chin and size weren't an issue, I'd probably take Khan to win this fight.

I generally agree with the sentiment that Khan has never been outboxed and think that, while Canelo's hand speed is underrated, Khan should be able to consistently beat Canelo to the punch and stay out of range vs. the relatively slow-footed Canelo and his dangerous punching power. Canelo has sometimes had trouble cutting off the ring vs. more mobile opponents; there's a good possibility he'll have similar problems vs. Khan, who is likely the fastest opponent he's ever faced. 

Khan's defensive deficiencies notwithstanding, if Khan stays out of the corner of the ring (where he is at much greater risk of getting pummeled) and picks the right spots to throw his quick combinations he can outwork and outpoint the at times low-volume and overly patient Canelo. Again, the question would be how much success Khan will have eluding Canelo's pressure and accurate punching power for 12 rounds.

Though I believe Khan to be an elite offensive fighter with overall better skills than Canelo, there are several reasons why I strongly favor Canelo to win this fight. Firstly, the size disparity will be too much for Khan to overcome. Khan is moving up two weight classes to fight for the first time as a middleweight; while the weight jump is effectively only eight pounds (147 lbs to 155 lbs), there is expected to be a wide size discrepancy between Khan and the naturally bigger Canelo (who typically balloons to well over 170 lbs) on fight night. Canelo will be (by far) the biggest fighter and strongest puncher Khan has ever fought, while it is doubtful Khan's solid power at 147 lbs will translate well at the higher weight class vs. a fighter in Canelo who has already proven his chin vs. bigger fighters than Khan. There is also a question of how Khan's speed - his primary advantage in the fight - will be affected by the higher weight.

Secondly Khan's chin will likely mot be able to elude Canelo - one of the more accurate and efficient punchers in the sport - for 12 rounds. Khan has been knocked out in early rounds vs. lesser punchers at junior welterweight (140 lbs) and welterweight (147 lbs); there's little reason to think Khan won't suffer the same - or even a worse - fate vs. a bigger, stronger power puncher in Canelo. Khan's defense does appear to have improved a bit in his 3.5 years under trainer Virgil Hunter (e.g., he's decreased exposure to his chin by staying off the ropes more and spending less time inside throwing the multi-punch combinations that put him in poor defensive positions) but it should also be noted that Khan's chin hasn't really been tested in recent fights - he hasn't faced a good puncher since fighting Julio Diaz four fights ago in 2013; Khan won a close decision in that fight but Diaz did score a 4th round knockdown.

Sure, Canelo has had difficulty with faster fighters in the recent past, most notably Mayweather and Lara, but Mayweather is one of the best defensive fighters in the history of the sport and Lara is one of the best defensive fighters today. Both Mayweather and Lara are elite, high IQ boxers who understanding spacing and were able to elude Canelo with their length and vertical movement even while at close range. Khan is actually faster than both Mayweather and Lara but does not move as well or have the defensive IQ of either fighter. Khan still has issues with staying inside a bit too long and still has subpar upper body movement, meaning he'll likely be easier to hit when Canelo (inevitably) catches up to him. In recent fights, Khan has sometimes been able to avoid pressure by clinching or pushing off on his opponents - it will be much tougher to do this vs. a bigger opponent in Canelo.

In his most recent fight, Khan surprisingly even had issues defensively vs. the soft-punching Chris Algieri at welterweight so tough to see Khan not having a much worse time of it vs. one of the better punchers in the sport.

Even if Khan is somehow able to maintain distance vs. Canelo and box effectively with him for 12 rounds, there is still the issue of whether Khan will get a fair score as the "B-side" of the boxing promotion on Cinco De Mayo weekend in front of a largely Mexican/Mexican-American crowd. Khan throws a lot of punches and could outwork the typically low-volume Canelo but - fair or not - Canelo has a judge-friendly style due largely to his aggression and tendency to land clean, accurate power punches. So even if Khan outboxes Canelo (which is a possibility), there is a decent chance Canelo still gets the decision.

But given Khan's size deficiency, chin issues, and fundamental defensive flaws, I don't see this fight going 12 rounds anyway. I expect Canelo to eventually figure out Khan's timing, catch up to him in the mid to late rounds, and score a TKO/KO victory vs. an opponent who's perhaps bit off a bit more than he can chew by moving up to middleweight to fight Canelo.


Prediction: Canelo by TKO/KO (1.5 units)


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