Fight: Leo Santa Cruz (30-0-1, 17 KOs) vs. Abner Mares (29-1-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: August 29, 2015
Weight class: Featherweight (126 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Featherweight title
TV: ESPN
Line: Santa Cruz -230, Mares +190 (5 Dimes, 8/29/15)
Purse: Santa Cruz: $1.25 million, Mares: $1.25 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Santa Cruz: #2 ranked junior featherweight, Mares: #4 ranked featherweight
Style: Santa Cruz: Orthodox, Mares: Orthodox
Referee: Jack Reiss
Positives for Santa Cruz
Negatives for Santa Cruz
Positives for Mares
Negatives for Mares
Summary/Prediction
Positives for Santa Cruz
- Undefeated boxer (30-0-1) who is the former IBF Bantamweight (122 lbs) and current WBC Super Bantamweight (126 lbs) champion. Hyper-aggressive, relentless puncher who - per CompuBox stats - both throws and lands more punches than any other CompuBox-tracked boxer.
- Come-forward pressure fighter who overwhelms his opponents with an accumulation of punches thrown from a wide array of angles. But despite his high activity is a surprisingly accurate and efficient fighter; often throws over 100 punches in a round and lands around 40 percent of those punches, a percentage which - per CompuBox stats - ranks third behind only Floyd Mayweather and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Adept at setting opponents up with the jab in early rounds to set-up rapid multi-punch flurries in later rounds as his opponents tire.
- Technically sound boxer with a fairly good high guard defense; per CompuBox stats, Santa Cruz opponents only land approximately 25 percent of their punches. Has also shown a very good chin thus far in his career, having only been knocked down once in 31 professional fights (knocked down in the 4th round of his August 2009 fight vs. Robert DaLuz, a fight he won by unanimous decision). Has a better chin and better defensive skills than Mares, which will come into play if this fight turns into a brawl.
- Has excellent stamina; despite throwing more punches per round than any other CompuBox-tracked boxer, Santa Cruz doesn't seem to tire. Fights with as much energy in middle to late rounds as he does in early rounds.
- Relatively tall fighter for this weight class (5'7") and will come into this fight vs. Mares as the taller (3" height advantage) and likely slightly larger fighter in size. Relatively long-limbed fighter (69" reach) who will also have a 3" reach advantage so may be able to keep Mares, a specialist at fighting inside, at arm's length with his jab if needed.
- Mares is the more proven, experienced fighter but Santa Cruz is actually considered the "A-side" fighter in this matchup, considering that Santa Cruz has gotten more of the press attention and his name is getting top billing for the fight. Both Mares and Santa Cruz are managed by Al Haymon and his Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) promotional company but Haymon and PBC appear to be mainly promoting Santa Cruz as a potential future superstar in the sport. As the more "politically connected" fighter, there is a greater chance of Santa Cruz getting the decision in a close fight - even if Mares turns in the slightly better performance.
- Is only 27 years old and in the prime of his career. Looking to gain the first marquee win of his career by defeating Mares.
- Undefeated boxer (30-0-1) who is the former IBF Bantamweight (122 lbs) and current WBC Super Bantamweight (126 lbs) champion. Hyper-aggressive, relentless puncher who - per CompuBox stats - both throws and lands more punches than any other CompuBox-tracked boxer.
- Come-forward pressure fighter who overwhelms his opponents with an accumulation of punches thrown from a wide array of angles. But despite his high activity is a surprisingly accurate and efficient fighter; often throws over 100 punches in a round and lands around 40 percent of those punches, a percentage which - per CompuBox stats - ranks third behind only Floyd Mayweather and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Adept at setting opponents up with the jab in early rounds to set-up rapid multi-punch flurries in later rounds as his opponents tire.
- Technically sound boxer with a fairly good high guard defense; per CompuBox stats, Santa Cruz opponents only land approximately 25 percent of their punches. Has also shown a very good chin thus far in his career, having only been knocked down once in 31 professional fights (knocked down in the 4th round of his August 2009 fight vs. Robert DaLuz, a fight he won by unanimous decision). Has a better chin and better defensive skills than Mares, which will come into play if this fight turns into a brawl.
- Has excellent stamina; despite throwing more punches per round than any other CompuBox-tracked boxer, Santa Cruz doesn't seem to tire. Fights with as much energy in middle to late rounds as he does in early rounds.
- Relatively tall fighter for this weight class (5'7") and will come into this fight vs. Mares as the taller (3" height advantage) and likely slightly larger fighter in size. Relatively long-limbed fighter (69" reach) who will also have a 3" reach advantage so may be able to keep Mares, a specialist at fighting inside, at arm's length with his jab if needed.
- Mares is the more proven, experienced fighter but Santa Cruz is actually considered the "A-side" fighter in this matchup, considering that Santa Cruz has gotten more of the press attention and his name is getting top billing for the fight. Both Mares and Santa Cruz are managed by Al Haymon and his Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) promotional company but Haymon and PBC appear to be mainly promoting Santa Cruz as a potential future superstar in the sport. As the more "politically connected" fighter, there is a greater chance of Santa Cruz getting the decision in a close fight - even if Mares turns in the slightly better performance.
- Is only 27 years old and in the prime of his career. Looking to gain the first marquee win of his career by defeating Mares.
Negatives for Santa Cruz
- Santa Cruz is a largely untested fighter who has fought questionable competition over the course of his career. Most notable wins came vs. relatively unknown Christian Mijares, Victor Terrazas, and Eric Morel - all former world champions but were arguably past their prime at the time they fought Santa Cruz. How will Santa Cruz fare in his first fight vs. a true top-level opponent in Mares? Mares comes into this fight with a clear advantage in both experience and quality of competition.
- Santa Cruz is the taller, naturally bigger fighter but will be fighting in only his 2nd fight as a featherweight, having just moved up from junior featherweight earlier this year. Mares has fought five fights at featherweight over the past two years and has won a world title at this weight class.
- Mares is the technically superior fighter whose lone loss came via 1st round KO vs. a boxer with legitimate one-punch KO power (Jhonny Gonzalez). Santa Cruz - a volume puncher - does not have elite punching power, with only 17 of his 30 wins coming by TKO/KO. To win this fight, Santa Cruz will likely have to overwhelm Mares with an accumulation of punches as he does not have the power to change the course of the fight with one punch the same way Gonzalez did.
- Santa Cruz's high guard defense, while fairly effective, leaves him susceptible to body punching, something which Mares excels at. Santa Cruz's height advantage and propensity to fight on the inside may also work against him here as shorter fighters (as Mares is in this matchup) generally have more success to the body when fighting inside.
- Although having a better chin and better defense than Mares, Santa Cruz is a pressure fighter who will inevitably get hit in his attempts to apply pressure. How will Santa Cruz's defense hold up vs. Mares, a more skilled, mobile fighter who can beat Santa Cruz to the punch with his faster hands?
- Santa Cruz is used to controlling the tempo and applying pressure in his fights as he comes forward; in this fight he will (for the first time in his career) be facing another highly-skilled, former pound-for-pond ranked pressure fighter who may force him at times to fight off his back foot. How will Santa Cruz fare if Mares is successful pressuring him backwards towards the ropes? In previous fights, Santa Cruz has appeared uncomfortable when fighting off his back foot.
- Santa Cruz is a largely untested fighter who has fought questionable competition over the course of his career. Most notable wins came vs. relatively unknown Christian Mijares, Victor Terrazas, and Eric Morel - all former world champions but were arguably past their prime at the time they fought Santa Cruz. How will Santa Cruz fare in his first fight vs. a true top-level opponent in Mares? Mares comes into this fight with a clear advantage in both experience and quality of competition.
- Santa Cruz is the taller, naturally bigger fighter but will be fighting in only his 2nd fight as a featherweight, having just moved up from junior featherweight earlier this year. Mares has fought five fights at featherweight over the past two years and has won a world title at this weight class.
- Mares is the technically superior fighter whose lone loss came via 1st round KO vs. a boxer with legitimate one-punch KO power (Jhonny Gonzalez). Santa Cruz - a volume puncher - does not have elite punching power, with only 17 of his 30 wins coming by TKO/KO. To win this fight, Santa Cruz will likely have to overwhelm Mares with an accumulation of punches as he does not have the power to change the course of the fight with one punch the same way Gonzalez did.
- Santa Cruz's high guard defense, while fairly effective, leaves him susceptible to body punching, something which Mares excels at. Santa Cruz's height advantage and propensity to fight on the inside may also work against him here as shorter fighters (as Mares is in this matchup) generally have more success to the body when fighting inside.
- Although having a better chin and better defense than Mares, Santa Cruz is a pressure fighter who will inevitably get hit in his attempts to apply pressure. How will Santa Cruz's defense hold up vs. Mares, a more skilled, mobile fighter who can beat Santa Cruz to the punch with his faster hands?
- Santa Cruz is used to controlling the tempo and applying pressure in his fights as he comes forward; in this fight he will (for the first time in his career) be facing another highly-skilled, former pound-for-pond ranked pressure fighter who may force him at times to fight off his back foot. How will Santa Cruz fare if Mares is successful pressuring him backwards towards the ropes? In previous fights, Santa Cruz has appeared uncomfortable when fighting off his back foot.
Positives for Mares
- Former IBF Bantamweight, WBC Super Bantamweight, and WBC Featherweight champion. Aggressive brawler with good boxing skills who just two years ago was undefeated and ranked #5 on Ring Magazine's pound-for-pound list before a 1st round KO loss to Jhonny Gonzales. Represented Mexico at the 2004 Olympics in Athens.
- Like Santa Cruz, is a high-volume pressure fighter, but is more versatile and has better boxing skills. Rough, physical fighter who is a very good body puncher and adept at brawling from the inside (including the use of questionably dirty veteran tricks) but has the ability to adjust and box from the outside if necessary (as shown in his 2nd fight vs. Joseph Agbeko). Is particularly effective with his jab and left hook.
- Compared to Santa Cruz is the more established world-class fighter with a significant advantage in experience. Within the past five years has fought - and beaten - former world champions such as Vic Darchinyan, Agbeko (twice), Anselmo Moreno, and Daniel Ponce De Leon. Lone loss was a 1st-round KO loss to power puncher Jhonny Gonzalez (for whom Mares used to be a sparring partner years ago) in August 2013; Mares is 3-0 since that KO loss. Mares is also the more experienced fighter at featherweight (this will only be Santa Cruz's 2nd fight at featherweight).
- Mares is the more talented, skilled boxer with better punching power and slightly quicker hands. Is also the more mobile figher who appears to be much more capable of fighting off his back foot (e.g., when being pressured). Mares is 3 inches shorter than Santa Cruz but his shorter height may be to his advantage if the fight turns into an inside brawl as many expect. (Shorter fighters have easier access to the body - particularly vs. a high guard defense like the one Santa Cruz has - and Mares is a very skilled body puncher.)
- Other than the KO loss to Gonzalez, Mares has generally shown a good chin throughout his career. Other than the Gonzalez fight, Mares has only been knocked down once in his career - in the 2nd round of a December 2010 split-decision victory vs. former Ring Magazine top 10 pound-for-pound fighter and 3-division world champion Darchinyan.
- Former IBF Bantamweight, WBC Super Bantamweight, and WBC Featherweight champion. Aggressive brawler with good boxing skills who just two years ago was undefeated and ranked #5 on Ring Magazine's pound-for-pound list before a 1st round KO loss to Jhonny Gonzales. Represented Mexico at the 2004 Olympics in Athens.
- Like Santa Cruz, is a high-volume pressure fighter, but is more versatile and has better boxing skills. Rough, physical fighter who is a very good body puncher and adept at brawling from the inside (including the use of questionably dirty veteran tricks) but has the ability to adjust and box from the outside if necessary (as shown in his 2nd fight vs. Joseph Agbeko). Is particularly effective with his jab and left hook.
- Compared to Santa Cruz is the more established world-class fighter with a significant advantage in experience. Within the past five years has fought - and beaten - former world champions such as Vic Darchinyan, Agbeko (twice), Anselmo Moreno, and Daniel Ponce De Leon. Lone loss was a 1st-round KO loss to power puncher Jhonny Gonzalez (for whom Mares used to be a sparring partner years ago) in August 2013; Mares is 3-0 since that KO loss. Mares is also the more experienced fighter at featherweight (this will only be Santa Cruz's 2nd fight at featherweight).
- Mares is the more talented, skilled boxer with better punching power and slightly quicker hands. Is also the more mobile figher who appears to be much more capable of fighting off his back foot (e.g., when being pressured). Mares is 3 inches shorter than Santa Cruz but his shorter height may be to his advantage if the fight turns into an inside brawl as many expect. (Shorter fighters have easier access to the body - particularly vs. a high guard defense like the one Santa Cruz has - and Mares is a very skilled body puncher.)
- Other than the KO loss to Gonzalez, Mares has generally shown a good chin throughout his career. Other than the Gonzalez fight, Mares has only been knocked down once in his career - in the 2nd round of a December 2010 split-decision victory vs. former Ring Magazine top 10 pound-for-pound fighter and 3-division world champion Darchinyan.
Negatives for Mares
- Mares's most memorable fight was the 1st round KO loss to Gonzalez; Mares is 3-0 in the two years since that loss but all 3 wins were fairly unimpressive wins vs. lower quality opponents. Mares does not appear to be the same pound-for-pound ranked fighter he was prior to the loss to Gonzalez so unclear how we will perform stepping back up to face a higher quality opponent in Santa Cruz, who is arguably the toughest opponent to date in his career. Fighters are often more timid and cautious after suffering brutal KO losses, which appears to be the case with Mares.
- As an inside pressure fighter Mares is highly susceptible to clean counter punching; statistically, Santa Cruz throws and lands more punches than anyone in boxing (and does so at a high connect percentage even going into middle and later rounds) so can easily see Mares wearing down vs. Santa Cruz's avalanche of punches as the fight progresses. Santa Cruz will inevitably have stretches of success landing vs. Mares - the question is how well Mares can withstand Santa Cruz's relentless attack.
- Is considered by some to be one of the dirtiest fighters in boxing (if not the dirtiest fighter). Has been guilty of landing multiple low blows in fights, most notably in his 1st fight vs. Agbeko (a fight where many felt he should have been disqualified), as well as his fights vs. Darchinyan and Moreno. Mares has suffered point deductions in previous fights due to dirty tactics and will be prone to getting deducted points in tonight's fight vs. Santa Cruz, especially considering that Santa Cruz is a taller fighter who will be looking to fight inside vs. Mares.
- Mares has more power than Santa Cruz but, like Santa Cruz, is not a big KO puncher; only 15 of Mares's 29 wins came via TKO/KO. If Mares is going to win this fight, it's very likely he'll have to win a decision.
- Mares's most memorable fight was the 1st round KO loss to Gonzalez; Mares is 3-0 in the two years since that loss but all 3 wins were fairly unimpressive wins vs. lower quality opponents. Mares does not appear to be the same pound-for-pound ranked fighter he was prior to the loss to Gonzalez so unclear how we will perform stepping back up to face a higher quality opponent in Santa Cruz, who is arguably the toughest opponent to date in his career. Fighters are often more timid and cautious after suffering brutal KO losses, which appears to be the case with Mares.
- As an inside pressure fighter Mares is highly susceptible to clean counter punching; statistically, Santa Cruz throws and lands more punches than anyone in boxing (and does so at a high connect percentage even going into middle and later rounds) so can easily see Mares wearing down vs. Santa Cruz's avalanche of punches as the fight progresses. Santa Cruz will inevitably have stretches of success landing vs. Mares - the question is how well Mares can withstand Santa Cruz's relentless attack.
- Is considered by some to be one of the dirtiest fighters in boxing (if not the dirtiest fighter). Has been guilty of landing multiple low blows in fights, most notably in his 1st fight vs. Agbeko (a fight where many felt he should have been disqualified), as well as his fights vs. Darchinyan and Moreno. Mares has suffered point deductions in previous fights due to dirty tactics and will be prone to getting deducted points in tonight's fight vs. Santa Cruz, especially considering that Santa Cruz is a taller fighter who will be looking to fight inside vs. Mares.
- Mares has more power than Santa Cruz but, like Santa Cruz, is not a big KO puncher; only 15 of Mares's 29 wins came via TKO/KO. If Mares is going to win this fight, it's very likely he'll have to win a decision.
There is a pretty good argument that most of the metrics for this fight favor Abner Mares. Mares is after all by far the more experienced boxer, having beaten a string of tough reigning or former world champions over the course of a 2.5 year span to become a 3-division world champion and at one time a top 5 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport. (Santa Cruz by comparison is notably unproven; tonight will be the first test in his career vs. a top-level opponent.)
Mares is also generally considered the more talented, skilled boxer with slightly greater punching power, quicker hands, and better foot movement. In reviewing previous fights, Mares appears to be a more savvy ring general than the sometimes mechanical Santa Cruz and is a particularly savvy fighter brawling from the inside, where many expect much of the action in this fight to take place. As mentioned previously, Mares's shorter height may prove to be a key advantage when he goes to the body vs. the taller Santa Cruz who, with his high guard defense, will leave his body exposed in spots. Mares is a veteran brawler with many tricks (both clean and a bit dirty) up his sleeve; while I don't think he has the punching power to beat the more durable, less battle-worn Santa Cruz by TKO/KO, I would not at all be surprised if he outboxes Santa Cruz en route to a decision victory.
But Mares hasn't looked impressive in his last 3 fights vs. B and C-level competition (despite having a 3-0 record in those 3 fights) and, at the end of the day, I don't see him withstanding Santa Cruz's relentless pressure and prolific work rate over the course of a 12-round fight that is likely to be more of a brawl than a boxing match. In this specific matchup I see Santa Cruz's energy and unmatched activity overwhelming Mares's skill and slight power and speed advantages, especially considering Mares's skills appear to have diminished a bit since his KO loss to Gonzalez. Mares, a defensively-lacking pressure fighter, will be right in front of Santa Cruz for much of the night and I don't like his chances vs. Santa Cruz's high-volume punch rate. Santa Cruz is the less experienced, less proven fighter in this matchup for sure but he has shown very good skill and surprising (given the number of punches he throws) accuracy in recent fights and appears more than ready for the step up to face higher-level opposition like Mares. Although fighting lesser-skilled opponents, Santa Cruz has generally looked impressive in recent fights while Mares - a brawler who has been in a lot of wars in recent years - hasn't looked quite the same since his 1st round KO loss to Gonzalez two years ago.
Despite perhaps still being the more skilled boxer with quicker hands, I don't think even an aggressive pressure fighter like Mares will have the punch output necessary to match Santa Cruz, whose work rate and stamina I think will largely stymie Mares's typically high-volume attack over the course of 12 rounds. I think Mares's loss to Gonzalez was the beginning of the end for Mares as a top-level boxer and that this fight will reveal further how his previously very highly regarded offensive skills have diminished.
I see Santa Cruz outworking Mares as the fight progresses (i.e., as Mares tires from foot movement and the accumulation of Santa Cruz punches) en route to a clear but competitive decision victory, with perhaps even an outside chance at a stoppage by Santa Cruz in the later rounds. Sorry to say but I also think that if this fight is close (which is a good possibility), even to the point of Mares slightly outboxing Santa Cruz, there is a good chance that the more "politically connected" fighter in Santa Cruz will be granted a controversial decision, especially considering that it will be tough for judges to overlook Santa Cruz's energy and high activity even if all the punches aren't landing.
So I like Santa Cruz's punch volume and durability over Mares's advantages in skill, power, and speed, especially when you consider that Mares's skills appear to have diminished in recent fights.
In any case, this is a classic matchup of two Mexican brawlers (think Barrera vs. Morales, Marquez vs.Vazquez, Corrales vs. Castillo, though Corrales was only half-Mexican) that has all the makings of a strong fight of the year candidate. On paper this is the best matchup PBC has offered in the nearly six months they've been broadcasting fights and I'm excited and intrigued to see how tonight's fight plays out!!!
Mares is also generally considered the more talented, skilled boxer with slightly greater punching power, quicker hands, and better foot movement. In reviewing previous fights, Mares appears to be a more savvy ring general than the sometimes mechanical Santa Cruz and is a particularly savvy fighter brawling from the inside, where many expect much of the action in this fight to take place. As mentioned previously, Mares's shorter height may prove to be a key advantage when he goes to the body vs. the taller Santa Cruz who, with his high guard defense, will leave his body exposed in spots. Mares is a veteran brawler with many tricks (both clean and a bit dirty) up his sleeve; while I don't think he has the punching power to beat the more durable, less battle-worn Santa Cruz by TKO/KO, I would not at all be surprised if he outboxes Santa Cruz en route to a decision victory.
But Mares hasn't looked impressive in his last 3 fights vs. B and C-level competition (despite having a 3-0 record in those 3 fights) and, at the end of the day, I don't see him withstanding Santa Cruz's relentless pressure and prolific work rate over the course of a 12-round fight that is likely to be more of a brawl than a boxing match. In this specific matchup I see Santa Cruz's energy and unmatched activity overwhelming Mares's skill and slight power and speed advantages, especially considering Mares's skills appear to have diminished a bit since his KO loss to Gonzalez. Mares, a defensively-lacking pressure fighter, will be right in front of Santa Cruz for much of the night and I don't like his chances vs. Santa Cruz's high-volume punch rate. Santa Cruz is the less experienced, less proven fighter in this matchup for sure but he has shown very good skill and surprising (given the number of punches he throws) accuracy in recent fights and appears more than ready for the step up to face higher-level opposition like Mares. Although fighting lesser-skilled opponents, Santa Cruz has generally looked impressive in recent fights while Mares - a brawler who has been in a lot of wars in recent years - hasn't looked quite the same since his 1st round KO loss to Gonzalez two years ago.
Despite perhaps still being the more skilled boxer with quicker hands, I don't think even an aggressive pressure fighter like Mares will have the punch output necessary to match Santa Cruz, whose work rate and stamina I think will largely stymie Mares's typically high-volume attack over the course of 12 rounds. I think Mares's loss to Gonzalez was the beginning of the end for Mares as a top-level boxer and that this fight will reveal further how his previously very highly regarded offensive skills have diminished.
I see Santa Cruz outworking Mares as the fight progresses (i.e., as Mares tires from foot movement and the accumulation of Santa Cruz punches) en route to a clear but competitive decision victory, with perhaps even an outside chance at a stoppage by Santa Cruz in the later rounds. Sorry to say but I also think that if this fight is close (which is a good possibility), even to the point of Mares slightly outboxing Santa Cruz, there is a good chance that the more "politically connected" fighter in Santa Cruz will be granted a controversial decision, especially considering that it will be tough for judges to overlook Santa Cruz's energy and high activity even if all the punches aren't landing.
So I like Santa Cruz's punch volume and durability over Mares's advantages in skill, power, and speed, especially when you consider that Mares's skills appear to have diminished in recent fights.
In any case, this is a classic matchup of two Mexican brawlers (think Barrera vs. Morales, Marquez vs.Vazquez, Corrales vs. Castillo, though Corrales was only half-Mexican) that has all the makings of a strong fight of the year candidate. On paper this is the best matchup PBC has offered in the nearly six months they've been broadcasting fights and I'm excited and intrigued to see how tonight's fight plays out!!!
Prediction: Santa Cruz to win
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