Errol Spence vs. Mikey Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Errol Spence (24-0, 21 KOs) vs. Mikey Garcia (39-0, 30 KOs)
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Date: March 16, 2019
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  IBF World welterweight title
TV: Fox PPV
Line: Spence: -360, Garcia: +325 (5 Dimes, 3/16/19)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Spence: #10 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked welterweight, Garcia: #7 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked lightweight
Style: Spence: Southpaw, Garcia: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

While well-known amongst boxing fans, Errol Spence and Mikey Garcia are far from household names in the mainstream sports world. But Spence vs. Garcia is probably one of the more intriguing matchups of the past several years. Spence vs. Garcia is the first matchup featuring two undefeated, Ring Magazine top 10 pound-for-pound fighters since Andre Ward fought Sergey Kovalev in 2016 and is the first such matchup (between undefeated, top 10 pound-for-found-rated fighters) at welterweight  since Floyd Mayweather Jr. fought Ricky Hatton in 2007.

Errol Spence - the current IBF welterweight champion of the world - is an undefeated former Olympian who is considered by many to be the best fighter in arguably the most talented weight division in the sport. Spence is a skilled, versatile boxer who's used his typical advantages over his opponents in size, speed, power, and athleticism  to not only win, but dominate every fight of his 24-fight professional career. Spence has won 14 of his last 15 fights - including his last 11 - by TKO/KO.

This Saturday night Spence will face Mikey Garcia, another undefeated fighter who is trying to become only the 6th 5-division champion in the history of the sport (Manny Pacquiao, Mayweather, Oscar De La Hoya, Sugar Ray Leonard, and Thomas Hearns), a feat which would make his already likely future induction into the International Boxing Hall of Fame a certainty.

Like most opponents on Spence's resume, Garcia - a natural lightweight (135 lbs) - will come into Saturday night's fight as the smaller fighter with disadvantages in power, speed, and athleticism. But Garcia is an immensely talented fighter who most would consider to be the more skilled boxer with the higher ring IQ. Garcia is blessed with a unique combination of power, accuracy, timing, and efficient footwork that Spence has never seen before and will have to respect if he wants to win this fight.

This will be the first fight of Garcia's career as an underdog (+325 at the time of this blog) and will likely be by far the toughest fight of his career to date. But if Garcia - who spent the majority of his career at featherweight (126 lbs) and super featherweight (130 lbs) - can beat the man considered by many to be the best (and most avoided) welterweight in the world in his first fight as a welterweight, he'll become an instant boxing legend, a legend in the Mexican-American communities of the United States, and perhaps even a legend back in his parents' home country of Mexico.

If Spence wins the fight (as expected by most), it'll likely set the stage for a title unification super fight vs. one of the other elite welterweight title holders promoted by Premier Boxing Champions - Shawn Porter, Manny Pacquiao, or Keith Thurman - either later this year or early 2019 at the latest.

Spence vs. Garcia will be the first boxing pay-per-view (PPV) ever carried by the Fox network and the second boxing PPV to take place at the 105,000+ capacity AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (home of the National Football League's Dallas Cowboys) - the first being Canelo Alvarez vs. Liam Smith in 2016.

Prefight Analysis

The outcome of Saturday night's fight largely depends on on how well Garcia's skills carry up to welterweight. Most observers agree that Garcia is probably the better pure boxer and all-around more skilled fighter in this matchup. To date Garcia has also probably had the more impressive career, having already won major world titles in 4 weight divisions and already likely secured a future spot in the International Boxing Hall of Fame behind his elite punching power in both hands complemented with exceptional timing, punch accuracy, and footwork.

Earlier this winter, Garcia spent 5 weeks of his training camp with world-renowned sports nutritionist Victor Conte to build muscle mass and gain strength - while retaining quickness and speed - for his move up to welterweight. If Garcia is able to carry his punching power up to welterweight without losing reaction time and the ability to move on his feet that he had at lower weights than this fight is much closer to a true 50/50 fight than the 75/25 to 80/20 fight the oddsmakers currently have this matchup graded as. Behind one of the best power jabs in the sport and the ability to counter accurately off his back foot, Garcia is very capable of performing better than then-IBF welterweight champion Kell Brook in his May 2017 fight vs. Spence, who on two of the three official judges' scorecards outpointed Spence over the first five rounds of their fight.

Garcia's patient, yet accurate and concussive punching power could be the perfect antidote to Spence's aggressive, lunge-forward style as Spence has shown susceptibility to clean counters when executing his attack (as seen in his early rounds vs. Brook).

There is a reason why Garcia sought out this fight and is extremely confident headed in to this matchup. Spence is a very good to perhaps great fighter but Garcia may just be a historically great fighter - a win Saturday night in his first fight at welterweight vs. the man many consider the best (and most avoided) fighter in the division will go a very long way towards proving that.

But, at the end of the day, I think the natural weight deficiency will be (way) too much for Garcia to overcome. It's been rare but we have seen instances of boxers moving up multiple weight classes to win a major title vs. an elite fighter in only their first fight at that weight class. But we've never seen a fighter move up two weight classes to beat the guy many consider to be not only the best fighter in the weight class, but also the best power puncher in the weight class with the highest knockout ratio (88%) in the division.

The weight discrepancy is further compounded by the fact that Spence is considered big for the weight class. Spence is currently the IBF welterweight champ but he's a very big, physically-imposing welterweight with a football background to boot. There is little doubt he would be the best fighter at super welterweight if he moved up to 154 pounds and he would likely be a highly successful fighter even at middleweight (160 lbs). As talented as Garcia is - and perhaps he really is the historically great talent many seem to think - one has to wonder what kind of chance a natural lightweight realistically has vs. a fighter with the athleticism and power that Spence has and vs. a fighter is Spence who could conceivably fight at an elite level at as high as middleweight. Garcia has in the past been knocked down by a light-fisted puncher at super featherweight (Roman Martinez) and - although he won the junior welterweight (140 lbs) title decisively last March vs. Sergey Lipinets - he was hit cleanly quite often by the tough Russian and didn't come close to stopping him offensively. In that fight vs. Lipinets, the skill discrepancy between Garcia and the Russian was apparent but Lipinets' size and toughness kept the fight somewhat competitive, particularly in the middle rounds where he had his most success. If Lipinets could stay competitive with Garcia at 140 lbs, I quite frankly see a (much) bigger, stronger, more athletic and skilled Spence being infinitely more competitive to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if it's an easy fight for him this Saturday night.

The theory behind this fight between a natural lightweight in Garcia and a pseudo-middleweight in Spence being competitive is based primarily on the thought that Garcia's skill advantage gives him a real shot but Spence's skills are being (way) underrated here. Again, Spence is a fighter who has not only beaten, but dominated every fighter who has stepped inside the ring with him. This included a domination of Brook - who many considered to be one of the most skilled pound-for-pound fighters in boxing at the time and who arguably is on the same level as Garcia in terms of skill - in Brook's home country to win the IBF welterweight title. This also included a quick 5th round destruction (in April 2016) of former WBO light welterweight champion Chris Algieri, a feather-fisted but slick and very mobile fighter who even Manny Pacquiao was unable to stop through 12 rounds. (That 5th-round stoppage was the first and only stoppage loss of Algieri's career.)

To be fair, Spence's resume isn't too impressive outside of Brook, gritty veteran (and former 2-division champion) Lamont Peterson (who Spence defeated last year by 7th-round stoppage), and maybe Algieri but Garcia's resume is also far from noteworthy. There's irony in Garcia being considered by many (including myself) to be a future likely future hall-of-famer, yet through 39 professional fights, he has yet to face another hall-of-fame caliber fighter himself.

The expected fight dynamics don't work too well in Garcia's favor either. Garcia is typically a slow starter and not the most active puncher in terms of volume. Even Adrien Broner - another notoriously slow starter and low-volume puncher who stayed ultra-conservative throughout his unanimous decision loss to Garcia in 2017 -  was able to win four rounds on two judges scorecards vs. Garcia, including two of the first four rounds. Garcia's tendency to start slow and pick up the pace in the middle rounds may not work well against a bigger, more active and aggressive fighter like Spence who has solid stamina and a proven ability to finish strong in the later rounds (see Spence's 11th round stoppage of Brook despite Brook's successes in the early rounds).  

Garcia has one of the best jabs in boxing but Spence has a solid jab of his own and a 4" reach advantage that will at least to some degree mitigate the effectiveness of Garcia's jab. Spence is also a devastating body puncher - perhaps the best in the sport today - which I'd expect to neutralize Garcia's counter punching as the fight progresses.

Especially given Garcia's soft body physique, I do think Spence's body punching will play the biggest role in what I expect to be a clear and decisive win for him Saturday night. Garcia is a tremendously intelligent and talented fighter but I think Spence's natural advantages in size, pure strength, athleticism, and punching power will be too much for him to overcome - especially in the later rounds.

Given Spence's physical advantages and the fact that he's won 14 out of his last 15 fights - including his last 11 - by TKO/KO, I think the most likely result of Saturday's fight is Spence by TKO/KO. But given Garcia's technical prowess - which includes solid fundamentals defensively - and ability to move well on his feet, I wouldn't be surprised if he lasts the full 12 rounds in what I still think would be a clear unanimous decision victory for Spence. While Spence to win by stoppage (currently being offered at better than even money odds) and Spence to win in rounds 7-12 (currently offered at better than 2-1 odds) are solid bets with strong value (and are bets I've placed smaller side wagers on), the bet I like the most here for mitigation of risk is Spence to win by KO or unanimous decision, currently being offered at 5Dimes at approximately -175 odds.

Spence vs. Garcia is a true legacy-defining fight and by far the most important fight of both fighters' careers. It will be interesting to see how both fighters - both of whom are typically very calm and composed by nature - perform in the big moment!

Prediction: Spence by TKO/KO

Recommended bets: 1) Spence by KO or unanimous decision (bet to WIN 1 unit) 

2) Spence by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to RISK .25 unit)

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Broner vs. Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Adrien Broner (33-2-0 24 KOs) vs. Mikey Garcia (36-0-0, 30 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: July 29, 2017
Weight class: Super Lightweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: Showtime
Line: Garcia: -200, Broner: +185 (5 Dimes, 7/29/17)
Purse: Garcia: $1 million, Broner: $1 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #1 ranked lightweight, Broner: Not ranked (neither fighter is ranked at super lightweight)
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Broner: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

Of all the big fights this year between high-profile boxers this could very easily end up being the most entertaining of them all. You have an undefeated, three-division world champion in Mikey Garcia moving up in weight to fight at a full 140 lbs for the first time in his career vs. a former four-division world champion in Adrien Broner, who comes into this fight as a significant underdog but is undefeated fighting below 147 lbs. Shortly after this fight was announced, Garcia was as high as a -720 (!) favorite over Broner but the odds have tightened considerably over the past few weeks to where Garcia is now only a little bit more than a -200 favorite at most sportsbooks.

As the undefeated - arguably more skilled - and more serious and composed fighter, Garcia understandably comes into this fight as the clear favorite. But Broner, despite his previous struggles vs. top-level contenders and immaturity in as well as outside of the ring, is a high IQ boxer in his own right with A-level talent and very good punching power at 140 lbs. There is also a potential size disparity here - Garcia's last fight was at lightweight (135 lbs) and he'll be moving up to 140 lbs to fight at a weight he's never fought at before while Broner's last  fight was at welterweight (147 lbs) and he'll be moving down to fight at a weight where he'll likely be more comfortable and have more effective punching power vs. his smaller opponent.

This fight is a clash between two of the more well-known non-PPV fighters in the sport. The fight is the biggest fight in both boxers' careers and is especially intriguing given both the clash in personalities (serious, laid-back, quiet Garcia vs. the often silly, brash, loquacious Broner) and clash in fighting styles (cautiously aggressive power puncher in Garcia vs. relatively low-output counter puncher in Broner). If Garcia wins on Saturday, he'll cement his return (after having fought just twice in the past 3.5 years due to a contract dispute with his previous promoter, Top Rank) as one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport and should set him up nicely for a big money fight - whether that's a title shot at 140 lbs or at title defense back down at 135 lbs, where he is the current WBC champion.

If Broner wins it would be the signature win of his career and go a (very) long way to proving to his numerous skeptics that he's now serious about living up to his enormous potential. As one of only 16 fighters in the history of boxing to have won major titles in 4 different weight classes, if Broner can pull off the upset here vs. Garcia, the boxing community will have to start at least thinking - as crazy as it may sound to some - about whether this guy deserves a spot in the International Boxing Hall of Fame someday.

Why Mikey Garcia will win

Garcia is an undefeated (36-0) boxer who has won major world titles in three division, including the lightweight division where he is the current WBC champion. Garcia won that lightweight championship this past January via 3rd round KO, in what was his first career fight in the lightweight division and only his second fight after a 2.5 year layoff from the sport due to a contractual dispute with then promoter Top Rank.

Garcia is a very good to great boxing technician with excellent punching power, as evidenced by his career 83.3% career KO ratio which ranks among the best of any active boxer regardless of weight class. Pound-for-pound, Garcia is indeed one of the hardest punchers in the sport, but he's also an extremely patient fighter who boxes with caution and tends to wait for opportunities to counter from mid- and long-range distance rather than brawl inside. Garcia will almost certainly not be as aggressive or physical as Marcos Maidana or Shawn Porter were in their victories vs. Broner (which are the only two losses of Broner's career) but his punch output is higher than the relatively low-volume Broner and his notable punching power should be effective enough even at the higher weight class, especially against a somewhat flat-footed Broner. Garcia scored two knockdowns in his only other career appearance in the super lightweight division, a 5th round TKO victory vs. Elio Rojas last July. (The TKO loss to Garcia was the first time Rojas had been stopped in his career.)  

Garcia is also known as a high IQ boxer who makes up for lack of elite athleticism with excellent fundamentals and footwork. His balance and leverage behind which he throws his power punches is somewhat resemblant of the fighter widely considered to be the top knockout artist in the sport, Gennady Golovkin. While he likely won't be as effective as Maidana or Porter were at smothering Broner with hyper-aggression, he has much better timing and accuracy than either of those boxers (or any boxer Broner has faced previously in his career for that matter),  and his patient, cautious style will leave him much less susceptible to Broner's counter punching than Maidana or Porter were. (Despite losing to both, Broner landed his share of clean shots vs. Porter and Maidana; Porter was knocked down in the 12th round in his victory over Broner and Maidana has commented multiple times on Broner being the hardest puncher he's ever faced.)

Unlike Broner, who is a jokester by nature and has developed a reputation for not taking the sport as seriously as he perhaps should, Garcia has always been a very serious, mature fighter who seemingly always comes into his fights very focused and prepared. Garcia knows that this is the biggest fight of his career and a win over Broner - one of the most well-known boxers in the sport - will lead to significant paydays in future fights as it did for both Maidana and Porter, who each have earned seven-figure paydays in all of their fights since defeating Broner. (Maidana earned over $3 million in each of his fights vs. Floyd Mayweather before retiring and, after beating Broner, Porter earned at least $1 million in his fights vs. both Keith Thurman and Andre Berto.)

Garcia is a fighter many consider to be one of the best in the sport pound-for-pound and is facing an opponent in Broner who has lost decisively (by wide unanimous decision) every time he's stepped up to face a top-level opponent. Broner's most high profile win was perhaps a controversial split-decision victory vs. Paulie Malignaggi, who was 32-years old at the time and a bit past his prime. Broner typically performs below expectation in his fights; the last fight in which Broner clearly met or exceeded performance expectations was perhaps his 8th round TKO victory way back in 2012 vs. Antonio DeMarco, who was a very solid contender at the time.

Garcia is likely much more familiar with Broner's fighting style and tendencies than Broner is of his. Garcia is trained by his older brother, widely respected trainer Robert Garcia, who was Maidana's trainer when Maidana decisively beat Broner in Broner's first career loss back in 2013 (a fight where Broner suffered the only two knockdowns of his career). Garcia's familiarity and previous success training against Broner should allow him to better prepare for this fight compared to Broner's training team, who have relatively little recent film on Garcia to draw from given that Garcia has only fought twice and in a total of eight rounds in the past 3.5 years (due largely to his 2.5 years of inactivity).

Why Adrien Broner will win

Broner is a former four-division world champion who, when he was just 26 years old, became the youngest fighter in boxing history to win major world titles in four different weight classes. Although he often hasn't fought up to his potential thus far in his career (which makes having won world titles in four different weight classes all the more impressive), Broner is a top-level talent who less than 3.5 years ago was ranked #5 pound-for-pound in the world by Ring Magazine and considered by some the heir apparent to Floyd Mayweather before his surprising loss to Maidana, who came into the fight as high as a 5-1 (+500) underdog.

Broner is a 27-year old fighter still very much in the prime of his career and will come into Saturday's fight holding advantages in size, physical strength, and athleticism over Gracia. Broner also has quicker hands and - despite Garcia's proven punching power - Broner may actually have slightly better power than Garcia at 140 lbs. Broner's size and strength in particular may be a major factor in this fight - despite the two losses (and getting knocked down twice in the process), Broner was able to hold his own and showed a good chin at a higher weight class (147 lbs) vs. two well-respected punchers in Maidana and Porter; it wouldn't be surprising at all to see Broner have better success managing Garcia's power at this lower weight. Garcia, on the other hand, has been knocked down once before - in 2013 at a much lower weight class (130 lbs) and by a fighter in Rocky Martinez not known for his punching power. Garcia's chin has been relatively untested in the lower weight classes he's fought in - Broner will be (perhaps by far) the biggest, toughest power puncher he's faced thus far in his career.

This is Garcia's first fight at a full 140 lbs, a weight Broner has fought at or higher than in the majority of his fights over the past four years and won a world title in less than two years ago. Broner has the two losses in his career, but he's undefeated (29-0) fighting below 147 lbs and will be fighting a smaller, weaker guy in Garcia. Broner's two losses at welterweight were largely due to Maidana and Porter being able to use their physicality and awkward, hyper-aggressive fighting styles to overwhelm Broner; a smaller, less aggressive Garcia likely won't be able to do the same Saturday night.

Garcia is known to be a high IQ, very skilled fighter but Broner is a slick, skilled technician in his own right; Broner is a relatively accurate, efficient puncher with power in both hands (as evidenced by his respectable 67% TKO/KO percentage), as well as an effective jab and solid one-two combination punching (though the knock on Broner is he's often not been able to put together more than two-punch combination punches vs. tougher opponents).

Broner also has an advantage in experience over Garcia, having fought numerous former world champions including Porter, Maidana, Malignaggi, Daniel Ponce De Leon, De Marco, and Gavin Rees, among others. Garcia is relatively untested in comparison, with perhaps the best wins of his career coming in 2013 vs. Juan Manuel Lopez - who's lost his last four title fights by TKO/KO due to a weak chin - and vs. 13-loss former world champion Orlando Salido. It also seems to be getting overlooked that Garcia has fought only twice in the past 3.5 years. Given Garcia's relatively weak level of competition and recent inactivity over the past few years it's highly possible Garcia is being overrated in this matchup.

Despite being a bit flat-footed, Broner has better defense than most give him credit for. Broner is adept with both the shoulder roll and high guard defense. With his quick reflexes, he slips and rolls punches fairly well from inside and is generally a difficult boxer to hit cleanly. If Garcia's punching power doesn't carry up to 140 lbs as well as most expect it will there's a good chance Broner's defense will easily be able to withstand Garcia's attack. If Broner was able to last 12 rounds at welterweight with an over 80% TKO/KO percentage fighter in Maidana, and was able to withstand the attack of Porter - a big welterweight who has had a lot of pro experience fighting at middleweight (160 lbs) - it stands to reason that Broner won't have too much difficulty with a less imposing, relatively patient puncher in Garcia who's coming up from a smaller weight class.

Broner has shown signs of taking this fight more seriously than previous high-profile fights where he's put forth disappointing performances. He's moved his training camp from his usual locations in Cincinnati, Ohio and Washington, D.C. to Colorado Springs, Colorado where he trained earlier in his career - presumably to minimize outside distractions. Broner has failed to make weight for multiple fights in the past and/or has negotiated a change in weight limit at the last minute so he could make weight but appears to have made the 140 lb weight for this fight without difficulty. Broner is a high profile, polarizing character who sells tickets often on his personality alone but he's well aware that Saturday's fight vs. Garcia may be his last opportunity to create a path to the Mayweather-level PPV superstardom he desires. Broner appears to be relishing the underdog status he has in this fight and sees this fight as an opportunity to prove a lot of his doubters wrong.

Prefight Analysis

In many ways this is a favorable matchup for Broner - he is the superior fighter in terms of size, physical strength, quickness, and athleticism. Broner also has more experience vs. top-level opponents and, at 140 lbs, arguably even packs more power behind his punch than the heavy-handed Garcia. Garcia may be the more skilled, fundamentally sound fighter but his skill and power will be mitigated by the fact that he's moving up in weight to fight at a full 140 lbs for the first time vs. a slick, defensively solid fighter in Broner who is comfortable at 140 lbs and even won a world title in the weight class less than two years ago. Broner is the biggest, most skilled, and most effective puncher Garcia has fought in his career. He's certainly a live underdog; if the +500 odds (for Broner to win) this fight opened at back in June were available today, I would take happily those odds and bet Broner without thinking too much about it.

With that said, I like Garcia to win this fight (at -200 odds) for a few reasons. Firstly, Garcia has always been a big boxer for the smaller weights he's fought at, to the extent of having had trouble making weight in a few fights and even losing his WBO featherweight title on the scales in his 2013 TKO victory vs. Juan Manuel Lopez after failing to make weight. 140 lbs is closer to Garcia's normal walk-around weight of 150-155 lbs; I see Garcia adjusting just fine to a weight closer to his normal weight and think his power will carry up to the higher weight accordingly. While Broner is resilient and has shown a decent chin vs. bigger opponents, I expect Garcia's power to be effective enough to cause problems for Broner, especially when you combine the leverage with which he throws his punches with his excellent timing and accuracy.

Again, Broner is the bigger, stronger fighter in this matchup but a big key here is that stylistically, Broner's a relatively low-volume, 1-2 punch combination counter puncher. I anticipate Broner's style and reluctance in many spots to be the aggressor to mostly mitigate the physical advantages he has over Garcia. Broner is at times flat-footed and often tentative in his attack, which I think will allow Garcia to press his attack more in the middle and later rounds after he develops a read on Broner's tendencies; I see Garcia having more success landing his jab and power right hand in particular as the fight progresses and he adjusts to Broner's style.

Broner is saying the Garcia fight will be the fight where he turns things around and shows why he should be considered one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport but he's actually said the same thing prior to most of his recent fights. The fact is, Broner hasn't performed up to expectations (i.e., the expectations of the A-level fighter that he was rated as earlier in his career) in *any* of his fights in recent years and has even struggled to win rounds vs. B-level fighters like Adrian Granados and Ashley Theophane (his two most recent opponents).

Garcia is perhaps the best fighter Broner has fought thus far in his career (a career in which he's already suffered two decisive losses, as well as being awarded multiple decisions that were deemed controversial and I think it will show Saturday night in what will be at times a highly competitive and entertaining, but clear victory for Garcia by decision or late stoppage. Broner certainly has the size, power, and skill to beat (or even stop) Garcia but given his fight style, I don't see him using his physicality or throwing enough punches to outpoint a patient - but more active - fighter in Garcia over the course of 12 rounds.

Prediction: Garcia to win

Recommended bet: Garcia to win (1 unit)

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