Cotto vs. Canelo: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Miguel Cotto (40-4, 33 KOs) vs. Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (45-1-1, 32 KOs)
Location: Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 21, 2015
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 155 lbs
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Middleweight title (if Alvarez wins; Cotto was stripped of title prior to fight)
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Cotto +275, Alvarez -305 (5 Dimes, 11/21/15)
Purse: Cotto: $15 million, Alvarez: $5 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Cotto: Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Canelo: #1 ranked junior middleweight
Style: Cotto: Orthodox, Canelo: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Canelo opened in late July as a -245 favorite shortly before the fight was officially announced, with Cotto as a slight +175 underdog. Public betting trended for the next couple of months after that in favor of the younger, bigger Canelo, who peaked as a -350 favorite in early October. Over the past few weeks approaching the fight however, it appears the underdog odds have enticed bettors to wager mostly on the still dangerously powerful Cotto, who has won his last three fights by easy TKO/KO victory since hiring Freddie Roach as trainer; Canelo is currently a -305 favorite, with Cotto as a +275 underdog.

Why Miguel Cotto will win

Despite being 35 years old (10 years older than Canelo), Cotto has looked over the past two years as impressive as he's ever looked in his career - winning his last three fights by wide TKO victories (and arguably not losing a single round in any of those three fights). Since hiring 7-time BWAA trainer of the year Freddie Roach as his trainer, Cotto has clearly regained confidence in his abilities as a top-level boxer and is fighting with a renewed energy.    

Cotto is generally considered the better overall boxer in this matchup, coming into this fight vs. Canelo with advantages in boxing IQ, skill, and speed. Cotto has superior foot movement to the relatively flat-footed Canelo and, especially given his effective use of movement in recent fights under Freddie Roach, is perhaps in a better position to control the tempo of this fight.

As shown in his recent fights, Cotto still has very good power in both hands... power comparable to that of Canelo despite Canelo being 10 years his junior. Cotto's left hook is his signature punch (Cotto's left hook is in fact widely considered one of the best punches in the sport) and he's also a devastating body puncher who throws combinations well. Cotto is a naturally more aggressive fighter than the typically patient, relatively low-output Canelo so do not be surprised if Cotto outworks Canelo in the initial rounds and takes some of the steam out of Canelo's power with early body shots.

Overall Cotto is still one of the best offensive fighters in boxing, having won 33 of his 44 pro fights by TKO/KO - a higher career TKO/KO percentage (75%) than other notable recent power punchers like Manny Pacquiao, Carl Froch, and Canelo himself. Canelo has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career but Cotto's brother Jose Miguel almost knocked Canelo out in the first round of their May 2010 fight. Cotto's last six wins have been by TKO/KO.

Cotto's power and advantage in foot speed could pose a problem for a fighter in Canelo who does not move well and deliberately paces himself during fights to conserve energy.

Cotto has the clear advantage in terms of experience. Despite being only 25, Canelo has solid experience but Cotto is perhaps the most experienced active fighter in boxing, having fought future hall-of-famers Floyd Mayweather Jr., Pacquiao, Shane Mosley, and Sergio Martinez, as well as former world champions Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Antonio Margarito (twice), Ricardo Mayorga, Joshua Clottey, and Daniel Geale. Last year Cotto upset then Ring Magazine #7 pound-for-pound middleweight champion Martinez - who hadn't lost since 2009 and had only lost one fight since 2000 - via 10th round stoppage. Three years ago (May 2012), Cotto gave  recently retired pound-for-pound king Mayweather one of the toughest fights in his career.

At the end of the day, Cotto is one of the best boxers of this generation while Canelo is still to an extent young and unproven. Cotto is a future first ballot hall-of-famer who is the only Puerto Rican to have won major world titles in four different weight classes (light welterweight, welterweight, junior middleweight, and middleweight).

Why Canelo Alvarez will win

There are solid reasons why Canelo is entering this fight as roughly a -300 favorite.

At only 25 years old, Canelo is one of the best boxer-punchers in the sport; a technically savvy boxer with excellent punching power in both hands.

Canelo is a patient, thinking boxer who statistically is one of the top 2-3 efficient boxers in the sport. He's an accurate puncher who lands a very high percentage of power punches and overall punches thrown (to the point where he at one time was ranked #1 by CompuBox in terms of percentage of power punches landed). Canelo is a splendid combination puncher who, while often low-output, tends to land punches cleanly and with power (which often makes an impression on judges in close rounds).

Canelo is a full decade younger than Cotto and is in the prime of his career. Canelo is naturally bigger and stronger than Cotto (likely the strongest fighter Cotto has ever fought in terms of pure physical strength) and has a 3.5" reach advantage on Cotto. (Canelo is generally expected to give up the reach advantage so he can pressure the smaller Cotto inside but the reach should help him neutralize Cotto's speed advantage when he boxes from range.)

Canelo is not the most mobile fighter (actually is relatively flat-footed) but he did have success in spots cutting off the ring vs. highly skilled light middleweight champion Erislandy Lara (who has much better foot movement than Cotto)... so one would expect Canelo would have at least as much success cutting off the ring vs. Cotto, who will not be as elusive as Lara and who has a history of stamina issues in the late rounds.

Although Cotto is the more experienced fighter, the 25-year old Canelo has already amassed a ton of experience, having fought Floyd Mayweather, former lightweight champion Miguel Vazquez (twice), future first ballot hall-of-famer Shane Mosley, Austin Trout, James Kirkland, and Kermit Cintron.

Due to expected strong Mexican/Mexican-American fan attendance, the crowd at the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas is expected to be largely pro-Canelo, which could have some influence on both the boxers inside the ring and the judging outside the ring. Scoring in close Canelo fights has tended to favor Canelo; even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw. If the fight is close and goes 12 rounds I strongly expect Canelo to be granted the decision.

Canelo is no defensive wizard and - as a pressure fighter with slow foot movement - is certainly susceptible to counterpunching. But Canelo's chin has held up against bigger and stronger fighters than Cotto (Canelo has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career) and his defense - in particular his upper body defensive movement - has noticeably improved in recent fights.

Cotto has looked extremely impressive in recent fights but who has he really beaten? Last year, Cotto beat a 39-year old fighter in Martinez suffering from a debilitating knee injury (which led to his Martinez's retirement after the fight) and who had been knocked down in each of his three fights prior to the Cotto fight. In June, Cotto defeated a 34-year old middleweight in Geale who looked weight drained and was clearly affected by the 157-pound catchweight. In tonight's fight, Cotto will be fighting a young, fresh, injury-free fighter in Canelo who is much better able to adapt to the (155 lb) catchweight.

Prefight Analysis

While this is certainly a competitive fight that could go either way, I'd give a 60/40 edge to Canelo for a few reasons:

For one, Canelo is the (much) younger, bigger, and stronger fighter. In Cotto's previous two fights, he fought a 39-year old, injury plagued fighter in Martinez and a 34-year old, weight drained, unexceptional fighter in Geale. While I'd actually still give Cotto a decent chance to win this fight by stoppage, Cotto is facing a much different animal in a 25-year old, fresh, injury-free fighter in Canelo who is perhaps more comfortable at the 155 lb catchweight than Cotto is. Furthermore, Canelo is an aggressive, but cautious fighter who has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career and has shown good improvement defensively in recent fights; Cotto likely won't be able to dominate this quality of opponent the same way he ran through Martinez and Geale. While Canelo isn't exactly known for his stamina, he is patient and preserves energy better than Cotto - I'd expect him to have an edge vs. an older, tired Cotto if the fight progresses into the later rounds.

Secondly, due to the expected strong presence of Mexican and Mexican-American fans at the fight, Canelo will essentially be fighting in front of a home crowd. As noted above, there is a chance the partisan crowd influences both the action inside the ring and the judges outside the ring in Canelo's favor. In close 12-round fights in front of pro-Canelo crowds of the past, Canelo has pretty much always benefited from favorable scoring from the judges; if this turns out to be a close, competitive 12-round fight (which is highly possible), I'd expect the decision to favor Canelo even if Cotto slightly outboxes him.

Canelo consistently brings the fight to his opponents and is a highly efficient boxer who throws splendid crowd (and judge) pleasing combinations with power that often land clean... his fan-friendly style is another element that often helps him with judges in close rounds.

Thirdly, Canelo does have experience with fighters having better movement than Cotto (e.g., Lara, Trout, and Mayweather). Although the judges' decisions were debatable, Canelo did have success in stretches pressuring Lara and Trout so I'd expect him to have at least somewhat better success pressuring Cotto - who is older, less mobile, and possesses less stamina than either Lara or Trout did at the time.

Canelo's youth, size, and power advantages - along with his ability to effectively pressure... not to mention the fact that he will be fighting in front of a solidly pro-Canelo crowd... largely explain why he is correctly favored in tonight's matchup.

But despite the fact that I feel Canelo will *probably* win tonight's fight (whether deserved or not), I actually feel the best *value* is betting on +275 underdog Cotto to win the fight. At the end of the day Cotto is just the better boxer who, in my opinion, has a clear advantage in both boxing skill and foot speed (especially foot speed). Cotto fights at both a faster mental and physical pace than the generally patient, low-output, slower Canelo; I think there is enough value not only in Cotto at +275 to win the fight but even Cotto by TKO/KO at +700 where betting on Cotto is the best bet.

I expect Cotto to outbox the slow-starting Canelo in the early rounds with a powerful body attack that will keep the slower Canelo at bay throughout much of the fight. I'd expect Cotto in the opening rounds to be mobile enough to evade Canelo's pressure but fast enough to beat Canelo to the punch during exchanges.

In my opinion, the big question is how well Cotto will perform in the later rounds as he starts to tire... but there is a good chance the typically low-output Canelo - who has stamina issues in his own right - won't be able to put enough clean punches together in the second half of the fight to win enough of the later rounds.

Again, I do like Canelo to probably win this fight due to his significant age and size advantages (which puts him in a good position to wear Cotto down as the fight progresses), as well as the strong home crowd (and perhaps judging) advantage he will have. But Cotto's clear advantages in pure skill, speed, and experience I think make betting on Cotto the best value play given the current odds.

 Regardless of who wins, I'll be at this fight personally and look forward to watching should be a great addition to the classic Mexico vs. Puerto Rico rivalry!!!

Prediction: Cotto to win (1 unit)

[Recommended hedge bet: Cotto by TKO/KO at +700 (.5 unit)]

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