Danny Garcia vs. Brandon Rios: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Danny Garcia (33-1, 19 KOs) vs. Brandon Rios (34-3-1, 25 KOs)
Location: Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: February 17, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: Showtime
Line: Garcia -1750, Rios +1350 (5 Dimes, 2/15/18)
Purse: Garcia: $1.25 million, Rios: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #5 ranked welterweight, Rios: Not ranked
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Rios: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

Primarily to confirm whether Danny Garcia - who lost for the first time in his professional career in a close, competitive split-decision loss to Keith Thurman last March and is coming off the longest layoff of his career after that loss - should still be considered one of the elite welterweights in what may now be the most stacked division in boxing.

Indeed, the welterweight division is deep in talent with names like Thurman, Errol Spence, Manny Pacquiao, Shawn Porter, and now Terence Crawford - who makes his welterweight debut in April vs. undefeated champion Jeff Horn for the WBO title after becoming the undisputed junior welterweight champion this past August. (Crawford is currently rated the Ring Magazine #2 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport behind only Gennady Golovkin and was the first undisputed world champion in any weight class in over a decade.) This fight should serve as a gauge to determine whether Garcia - a no-frills but talented and skilled boxer who probably has the most impressive fight resume out of any of the top welterweights - still belongs among the elite in the division.

The gauge for Garcia on Saturday night will be Brandon Rios, a former WBA world champion at lightweight who has arguably been one of the most exciting action fighters of this generation. Despite being stopped in his last loss back in November of 2015 vs. Tim Bradley (Rios's only stoppage loss and the only time he's been knocked down in his career), Rios is known for his Mexican-style grit and having an excellent chin. Rios is a come-forward pressure fighter with good power who is a fan favorite and a tough out for anyone, but this fight vs. Garcia will be just his 2nd fight after a 1.5-year break (temporary retirement) from the ring after his loss to Bradley. But Rios appears to be rejuvenated and in the best shape of his boxing career after reuniting with original trainer and close friend Robert Garcia, following a one-fight stint with Los Angeles-based trainer Ricky Funez.

Garcia vs. Rios is a WBC title eliminator, meaning that the winner of this fight becomes the second mandatory challenger for Thurman's WBC belt. (Porter, who beat Andre Berto in a WBC title eliminator last April, is currently Thurman's first mandatory opponent.) If Rios wins this fight, it would be an impressive comeback from a brief retirement, would be by far the best win of Rios's career, and would put him on track again for the high six-figure/low seven-figure paydays he enjoyed in the prime of his career vs. fighters like Manny Pacquiao and Mike Alvarado.

If Garcia wins (and wins impressively), it would further solidify his status as one of the best fighters at 147 lbs and as still a serious threat to any of the top guys in the division.

Prefight Analysis

As an over 20-1 favorite at some sportsbooks, Garcia is (by far) the widest favorite I've done a prediction for so it should be no surprise I'm picking him to win big here. A prime Rios goes 12 rounds with Garcia every time and would've even been competitive in spots with his relentless pressure and solid chin. But a past-prime, battle-worn Rios who's been relatively inactive the past couple of years and never really looked impressive at welterweight will have a difficult time hanging in there vs. a prime, fresh Garcia who is legitimately one of the top four or five boxers in a deep welterweight division and is arguably one of the top 20 boxers in the world pound-for-pound.

Rios is a name well-known to all hardcore boxing fans and is notorious for being a tough-out action fighter but this fight is a mismatch to the point you could question why it was even approved as a WBC belt title eliminator. Garcia is considerably more skilled, faster, and has greater (as well as more accurate) punching power than the relatively predictable and limited Rios, who even in his prime never beat a fighter of Garcia's caliber. (Garcia, on the other hand, has beaten a long list of fighters more talented and skilled than Rios - see Amir Khan, Lucas Matthysse, Lamont Peterson, Erik Morales (twice), Paulie Malignaggi, as well as a few others.)

Rios knows only one way to fight (which for the most part has served him well throughout his boxing career) - a style predicated on high-volume pressure, trading punches from close distance, and a will to win that seems nearly always greater than his opponent's. But Garcia has a lot to prove coming off the first loss of his career and has proven to have one of the better chins in boxing (having never been knocked down in his career despite having faced some of the more feared punchers in the sport like Matthysse and Thurman). It's hard to believe Rios - whose power has never been eye-catching at welterweight like it was at lower weights - poses much of a knockout threat to Garcia with a punching attack that is high in volume but is generally predictable with not much speed or creativity behind the punches. Garcia, on the other hand, is a deceptively slick, savvy puncher who will land crushing power punches (in particular his left hook, which is one of the best left hooks in the sport) vs. Rios, who has notoriously poor defensive skills (including little to no head movement, relatively slow reflexes,  and a willingness to take clean power punches in order to counter with his own attack).

Garcia wants to make a statement here that he is still one of the top fighters in the world at 147 lbs; Rios appears to have been the guy handpicked by Garcia's manager, Al Haymon, as the opponent Garcia would best be able to make that statement against with little to no risk of a second consecutive loss on his boxing record.

Despite the criticisms and negative assessment in this analysis, Rios is actually one of my favorite fighters; I respect his chin and tremendous toughness enough to believe he'll probably last the majority of the 12 rounds with Garcia. But at the end of the day, this is arguably a low A-level fighter in Garcia vs. a C-level fighter in Rios (with D-level defense) who's best days are behind him. I see Garcia breaking Rios down in the mid to late rounds to win this fight by stoppage - possibly even a vicious stoppage that forces Rios back into retirement. There's certainly a chance Rios has enough of a chin to get through the full 12 rounds - especially given that Garcia can be very patient at times and may be looking more for spots to counter rather than seek and destroy. But I think the (wide) mismatch in skill, Garcia's (oft-underappreciated) power, and Rios's declining abilities and propensity for getting hit cleanly makes a bet on Garcia to win inside the distance (which can currently be found at -130) the best bet for this fight.

Prediction: Garcia by TKO/KO

Recommended bet: Garcia by TKO/KO (.5 unit)

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Cotto vs. Canelo: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Miguel Cotto (40-4, 33 KOs) vs. Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (45-1-1, 32 KOs)
Location: Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 21, 2015
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 155 lbs
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Middleweight title (if Alvarez wins; Cotto was stripped of title prior to fight)
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Cotto +275, Alvarez -305 (5 Dimes, 11/21/15)
Purse: Cotto: $15 million, Alvarez: $5 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Cotto: Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Canelo: #1 ranked junior middleweight
Style: Cotto: Orthodox, Canelo: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Canelo opened in late July as a -245 favorite shortly before the fight was officially announced, with Cotto as a slight +175 underdog. Public betting trended for the next couple of months after that in favor of the younger, bigger Canelo, who peaked as a -350 favorite in early October. Over the past few weeks approaching the fight however, it appears the underdog odds have enticed bettors to wager mostly on the still dangerously powerful Cotto, who has won his last three fights by easy TKO/KO victory since hiring Freddie Roach as trainer; Canelo is currently a -305 favorite, with Cotto as a +275 underdog.

Why Miguel Cotto will win

Despite being 35 years old (10 years older than Canelo), Cotto has looked over the past two years as impressive as he's ever looked in his career - winning his last three fights by wide TKO victories (and arguably not losing a single round in any of those three fights). Since hiring 7-time BWAA trainer of the year Freddie Roach as his trainer, Cotto has clearly regained confidence in his abilities as a top-level boxer and is fighting with a renewed energy.    

Cotto is generally considered the better overall boxer in this matchup, coming into this fight vs. Canelo with advantages in boxing IQ, skill, and speed. Cotto has superior foot movement to the relatively flat-footed Canelo and, especially given his effective use of movement in recent fights under Freddie Roach, is perhaps in a better position to control the tempo of this fight.

As shown in his recent fights, Cotto still has very good power in both hands... power comparable to that of Canelo despite Canelo being 10 years his junior. Cotto's left hook is his signature punch (Cotto's left hook is in fact widely considered one of the best punches in the sport) and he's also a devastating body puncher who throws combinations well. Cotto is a naturally more aggressive fighter than the typically patient, relatively low-output Canelo so do not be surprised if Cotto outworks Canelo in the initial rounds and takes some of the steam out of Canelo's power with early body shots.

Overall Cotto is still one of the best offensive fighters in boxing, having won 33 of his 44 pro fights by TKO/KO - a higher career TKO/KO percentage (75%) than other notable recent power punchers like Manny Pacquiao, Carl Froch, and Canelo himself. Canelo has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career but Cotto's brother Jose Miguel almost knocked Canelo out in the first round of their May 2010 fight. Cotto's last six wins have been by TKO/KO.

Cotto's power and advantage in foot speed could pose a problem for a fighter in Canelo who does not move well and deliberately paces himself during fights to conserve energy.

Cotto has the clear advantage in terms of experience. Despite being only 25, Canelo has solid experience but Cotto is perhaps the most experienced active fighter in boxing, having fought future hall-of-famers Floyd Mayweather Jr., Pacquiao, Shane Mosley, and Sergio Martinez, as well as former world champions Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Antonio Margarito (twice), Ricardo Mayorga, Joshua Clottey, and Daniel Geale. Last year Cotto upset then Ring Magazine #7 pound-for-pound middleweight champion Martinez - who hadn't lost since 2009 and had only lost one fight since 2000 - via 10th round stoppage. Three years ago (May 2012), Cotto gave  recently retired pound-for-pound king Mayweather one of the toughest fights in his career.

At the end of the day, Cotto is one of the best boxers of this generation while Canelo is still to an extent young and unproven. Cotto is a future first ballot hall-of-famer who is the only Puerto Rican to have won major world titles in four different weight classes (light welterweight, welterweight, junior middleweight, and middleweight).

Why Canelo Alvarez will win

There are solid reasons why Canelo is entering this fight as roughly a -300 favorite.

At only 25 years old, Canelo is one of the best boxer-punchers in the sport; a technically savvy boxer with excellent punching power in both hands.

Canelo is a patient, thinking boxer who statistically is one of the top 2-3 efficient boxers in the sport. He's an accurate puncher who lands a very high percentage of power punches and overall punches thrown (to the point where he at one time was ranked #1 by CompuBox in terms of percentage of power punches landed). Canelo is a splendid combination puncher who, while often low-output, tends to land punches cleanly and with power (which often makes an impression on judges in close rounds).

Canelo is a full decade younger than Cotto and is in the prime of his career. Canelo is naturally bigger and stronger than Cotto (likely the strongest fighter Cotto has ever fought in terms of pure physical strength) and has a 3.5" reach advantage on Cotto. (Canelo is generally expected to give up the reach advantage so he can pressure the smaller Cotto inside but the reach should help him neutralize Cotto's speed advantage when he boxes from range.)

Canelo is not the most mobile fighter (actually is relatively flat-footed) but he did have success in spots cutting off the ring vs. highly skilled light middleweight champion Erislandy Lara (who has much better foot movement than Cotto)... so one would expect Canelo would have at least as much success cutting off the ring vs. Cotto, who will not be as elusive as Lara and who has a history of stamina issues in the late rounds.

Although Cotto is the more experienced fighter, the 25-year old Canelo has already amassed a ton of experience, having fought Floyd Mayweather, former lightweight champion Miguel Vazquez (twice), future first ballot hall-of-famer Shane Mosley, Austin Trout, James Kirkland, and Kermit Cintron.

Due to expected strong Mexican/Mexican-American fan attendance, the crowd at the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas is expected to be largely pro-Canelo, which could have some influence on both the boxers inside the ring and the judging outside the ring. Scoring in close Canelo fights has tended to favor Canelo; even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw. If the fight is close and goes 12 rounds I strongly expect Canelo to be granted the decision.

Canelo is no defensive wizard and - as a pressure fighter with slow foot movement - is certainly susceptible to counterpunching. But Canelo's chin has held up against bigger and stronger fighters than Cotto (Canelo has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career) and his defense - in particular his upper body defensive movement - has noticeably improved in recent fights.

Cotto has looked extremely impressive in recent fights but who has he really beaten? Last year, Cotto beat a 39-year old fighter in Martinez suffering from a debilitating knee injury (which led to his Martinez's retirement after the fight) and who had been knocked down in each of his three fights prior to the Cotto fight. In June, Cotto defeated a 34-year old middleweight in Geale who looked weight drained and was clearly affected by the 157-pound catchweight. In tonight's fight, Cotto will be fighting a young, fresh, injury-free fighter in Canelo who is much better able to adapt to the (155 lb) catchweight.

Prefight Analysis

While this is certainly a competitive fight that could go either way, I'd give a 60/40 edge to Canelo for a few reasons:

For one, Canelo is the (much) younger, bigger, and stronger fighter. In Cotto's previous two fights, he fought a 39-year old, injury plagued fighter in Martinez and a 34-year old, weight drained, unexceptional fighter in Geale. While I'd actually still give Cotto a decent chance to win this fight by stoppage, Cotto is facing a much different animal in a 25-year old, fresh, injury-free fighter in Canelo who is perhaps more comfortable at the 155 lb catchweight than Cotto is. Furthermore, Canelo is an aggressive, but cautious fighter who has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career and has shown good improvement defensively in recent fights; Cotto likely won't be able to dominate this quality of opponent the same way he ran through Martinez and Geale. While Canelo isn't exactly known for his stamina, he is patient and preserves energy better than Cotto - I'd expect him to have an edge vs. an older, tired Cotto if the fight progresses into the later rounds.

Secondly, due to the expected strong presence of Mexican and Mexican-American fans at the fight, Canelo will essentially be fighting in front of a home crowd. As noted above, there is a chance the partisan crowd influences both the action inside the ring and the judges outside the ring in Canelo's favor. In close 12-round fights in front of pro-Canelo crowds of the past, Canelo has pretty much always benefited from favorable scoring from the judges; if this turns out to be a close, competitive 12-round fight (which is highly possible), I'd expect the decision to favor Canelo even if Cotto slightly outboxes him.

Canelo consistently brings the fight to his opponents and is a highly efficient boxer who throws splendid crowd (and judge) pleasing combinations with power that often land clean... his fan-friendly style is another element that often helps him with judges in close rounds.

Thirdly, Canelo does have experience with fighters having better movement than Cotto (e.g., Lara, Trout, and Mayweather). Although the judges' decisions were debatable, Canelo did have success in stretches pressuring Lara and Trout so I'd expect him to have at least somewhat better success pressuring Cotto - who is older, less mobile, and possesses less stamina than either Lara or Trout did at the time.

Canelo's youth, size, and power advantages - along with his ability to effectively pressure... not to mention the fact that he will be fighting in front of a solidly pro-Canelo crowd... largely explain why he is correctly favored in tonight's matchup.

But despite the fact that I feel Canelo will *probably* win tonight's fight (whether deserved or not), I actually feel the best *value* is betting on +275 underdog Cotto to win the fight. At the end of the day Cotto is just the better boxer who, in my opinion, has a clear advantage in both boxing skill and foot speed (especially foot speed). Cotto fights at both a faster mental and physical pace than the generally patient, low-output, slower Canelo; I think there is enough value not only in Cotto at +275 to win the fight but even Cotto by TKO/KO at +700 where betting on Cotto is the best bet.

I expect Cotto to outbox the slow-starting Canelo in the early rounds with a powerful body attack that will keep the slower Canelo at bay throughout much of the fight. I'd expect Cotto in the opening rounds to be mobile enough to evade Canelo's pressure but fast enough to beat Canelo to the punch during exchanges.

In my opinion, the big question is how well Cotto will perform in the later rounds as he starts to tire... but there is a good chance the typically low-output Canelo - who has stamina issues in his own right - won't be able to put enough clean punches together in the second half of the fight to win enough of the later rounds.

Again, I do like Canelo to probably win this fight due to his significant age and size advantages (which puts him in a good position to wear Cotto down as the fight progresses), as well as the strong home crowd (and perhaps judging) advantage he will have. But Cotto's clear advantages in pure skill, speed, and experience I think make betting on Cotto the best value play given the current odds.

 Regardless of who wins, I'll be at this fight personally and look forward to watching should be a great addition to the classic Mexico vs. Puerto Rico rivalry!!!

Prediction: Cotto to win (1 unit)

[Recommended hedge bet: Cotto by TKO/KO at +700 (.5 unit)]

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