Garcia vs. Guerrero: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Danny Garcia (31-0, 18 KOs) vs. Robert Guerrero (33-3-1, 18 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: January 23, 2016
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC Welterweight title (recently vacated by Floyd Mayweather Jr.)
TV: Fox
Line: Garcia -1000, Guerrero +800 (5 Dimes, 1/23/16)
Purse: Garcia: $1.5 million, Guerrero: $1.2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #8 ranked welterweight; was Ring Magazine junior welterweight champion prior to moving up to welterweight, Guerrero: Not ranked (#6 ranked welterweight by WBC)
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Guerrero: Southpaw
Referee: Jack Reiss

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Garcia opened in late December of last year as a solid -825 favorite, with Guerrero as a 4.75-1 (+475) underdog. Betting has fluctuated since then but for the most part has been with the younger, undefeated Garcia, who is currently a -1000 favorite, with Guerrero priced as an 8-1 (+800) underdog.

Why Danny Garcia will win

On paper this could be an easy fight for Garcia. He is an undefeated former junior welterweight champion with power and is in the prime of his career facing an older, very battle worn fighter in Guerrero - who is just 2-2 in his last four fights. Each of Guerrero's last three fights have been wars and he was knocked down in the most recent two of those fights (vs. Aaron Martinez and Keith Thurman). 

Garcia is a patient and poised counterpuncher who should be able to capitalize on the fact that Guerrero's reflexes and defensive skills appear to have waned with age and the wear and tear of those recent fights (as evidenced by the fact that Guerrero barely won a split decision as a 40-1 favorite in his last fight vs. Martinez, which included getting knocked down early by an opponent in Martinez who has only won 4 of his 25 career fights by TKO/KO). Garcia has generally had problems with fighters who move well and can box from distance but Guerrero, despite having the ability to box from the outside, is a brawler at heart and will likely stand right in front of Danny for large portions of the fight.

In terms of experience, Garcia has been criticized for title defenses vs. questionable opponents but his overall resume is pretty solid, having beaten quality opponents such as Lucas Matthysse, Lamont Peterson, Amir Khan, Erik Morales (twice), and Zab Judah. Garcia has actually been an overachiever in his (thus far perfect) career, decisively winning fights even when he came in as a clear underdog (as was the case when he fought Matthysse and Khan, who were among the most feared and avoided fighters in boxing at the times Garcia fought them).

Garcia has never been knocked down or knocked out as a pro so it would be tough to imagine Guerrero - especially at this point of his career - affecting the course of this fight with his power. (Guerrero hasn't knocked down an opponent since his fight vs. Andre Berto in November 2012.)

Guerrero on the other hand has been getting hit often and fairly consistently throughout his recent fights; Garcia is a very good offensive fighter who should be able to land power punches - including his left hook which is considered by many one of the best left hooks in boxing -  with little difficulty. Garcia has knocked down his opponent in six out of his last eight fights (with ten knockdowns in those six fights) so it would not be a surprise to see Danny score knockdowns vs. Guerrero and possibly even get the stoppage vs. a past prime (and seemingly rapidly fading) Guerrero.

Why Robert Guerrero will win

Yeah he's a sizable underdog, but we can't forget that Guerrero is a former world champion/interim world champion in four weight divisions (featherweight, super featherweight, lightweight, and welterweight) and just 2.5 years ago was ranked the Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #9 fighter in the world after having gone over seven years without losing a fight. The fact is Guerrero could (and can still) box; from a technical standpoint many would say he actually has better boxing skills than Garcia both from distance and on the inside.   

Guerrero is a crafty, technically skilled southpaw who still poses a challenge even for A-level opponents with his experience, toughness, and versatile inside/outside boxing abilities. The only clear losses in Guerrero's career were against Keith Thurman and recently retired pound-for-pound king Floyd Mayweather Jr. - two A-level fighters who move well; Garcia is not as skilled or mobile as either of the two. Guerrero is the much more experienced inside fighter so could have a tactical advantage in a brawl (and most recent Guerrero fights have devolved into brawls), but Guerrero could also give Garcia problems if he stays on his feet and boxes from the outside, a style which has given Garcia problems in multiple recent fights (including his recent controversial decisions vs. Peterson and Mauricio Herrera).

It's important to note that Guerrero has had six fights over the last three years at welterweight (where he was an interim world welterweight champion), whereas this will only be Garcia's second fight as a true 147-pound welterweight after spending the majority of his pro career at junior welterweight.

A third generation Mexican-American, Guerrero will be fighting tonight in his home state of California and - with the number of Mexican-Americans and Mexicans expected to be in attendance in downtown Los Angeles - he will likely be the strong crowd favorite.

If Guerrero can maintain a high punch output vs. an often patient Garcia and his chin holds up, the opportunity is there for an upset - especially if he can neutralize Garcia's power by staying inside and pushing the fight towards a brawl. This is a winnable fight for Guerrero if he fights with his head and can somehow tap into the energy and determination he fought with in his prime just a few years ago.

Prefight Analysis

If this was a prime Robert Guerrero fighting Danny Garcia I would take Guerrero in this fight without too much thought, even at less favorable odds. Prime Guerrero was an underrated fighter who could outbox you from the outside with his jab, above average reach, and foot movement but was also adept at smothering from close range and outworking his opponents inside. Guerrero is the more experienced welterweight who overall probably still has a higher boxing IQ and slightly better boxing skills than the younger, more athletic Garcia. At his best, Guerrero fights with a relentless determination that would be tough for a typically laid-back fighter like Garcia to match over the course of 12 rounds.

But I don't see the current version of Guerrero winning this fight. Guerrero has regressed defensively and noticeably slowed in recent fights, to the point where he had to go to war to win competitive decisions vs. opponents who were wide underdogs (see the aforementioned matchup withMartinez and his June 2014 decision victory vs. Yoshihiro Kamegai). Guerrero endured quite a bit of punishment in these fights vs. lesser opponents (in addition to getting pummeled in a recent wide unanimous decision loss to Thurman); there is a good chance he will endure similar - if not greater - punishment at the hands of Garcia, a legitimate top 15-20 pound-for-pound boxer with power who is in the prime of his career.

Garcia's dangerous power combined with Guerrero's seemingly faded defensive skills should give Danny a chance to win this fight by stoppage but I think Guerrero's proven toughness (he's a resilient  guy who's never come closed to being stopped in his career) and the fact that Danny will be fighting at 147 lbs for only the second time in his career makes me lean towards Garcia by decision as the best bet as I think Guerrero will find a way to survive the 12 rounds.

Another point to consider here is that as the "A-side" fighter in this matchup backed by prominent (and highly influential) boxing manager Al Haymon, there is a good chance that a close fight here will be scored for the more politically-connected Garcia (see Garcia's highly controversial wins vs. Peterson and Herrera as previous examples of questionable scoring in Garcia fights). Garcia is a young, undefeated fighter with a potentially lucrative future in major network boxing (including possible PPV fights); it is certainly in Haymon and other network boxing executives' interest to protect Garcia's marketability as an elite fighter.

In any case, I expect this to be an entertaining fight - pretty good matchup of offensive-minded boxers who won't back down - and should be a nice addition to the Mexico vs. Puerto Rico rivalry (despite both fighters being American born).

Prediction: Garcia by decision (1 unit)

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Thurman vs. Guerrero: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Keith Thurman (24-0, 21 KOs) vs. Robert Guerrero (32-2-1, 18 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: March 7, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA World Welterweight title
TV: NBC
Line: Thurman -700, Guerrero +500 (5 Dimes, 3/6/15)
Purse: Thurman: $1.5 million, Guerrero: $1.23 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Thurman: #7 ranked welterweight, Guerrero: #8 ranked welterweight
Style: Thurman: Orthodox, Guerrero: Southpaw
Referee: Kenny Bayless


Positives for Thurman
Negatives for Thurman
Positives for Guerrero
Negatives for Guerrero
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Thurman

• Current WBA welterweight champion. Aggressive boxer-puncher with one-punch KO power in both hands. Relatively young boxer (26 years old) in his prime who is one of the most feared boxers in the sport today. Undefeated in 25 professional fights. (24-0 with one fight back in 2009 that was ruled a no contest after an accidental clash of heads in the 1st round.)
• Power puncher with 21 wins by TKO/KO in 25 professional fights (84%), which ranks among the highest percentage of wins by TKO or KO in boxing today. Arguably behind only Gennady Golovkin and Sergey Kovalev as the most powerful puncher in boxing. Thurman has very good stamina and maintains his KO power even into later rounds, as evidenced by his late round TKO/KO victories vs. Diego Chaves and Jesus Soto Karass. 
• Thurman's great power is complimented with very good boxing skills and high boxing IQ. Patient boxer who is adept at reading his opponents and making in-fight adjustments (as he did in his KO victory vs. Chaves). 
• Has good hand speed, footwork, and throws combinations well. Well-rounded boxer; difficult to single out his best punch as he has a wide array of punches in his arsenal.  
• Thurman is naturally bigger and stronger than Guerrero; Thurman has never fought below 147 lbs, while Guerrero spent the vast majority of his career at featherwieght (126 lbs), super featherweight (130 lbs), and lightweight (135 lbs) before moving up to welterweight 2.5 years ago.

Negatives for Thurman

•  Lacks experience at the top level. Thurman has dominated B and C-level fighters for much of his career but Guerrero will be by far the toughest opponent he's faced to date. Although he arguably won all 12 rounds, Thurman didn't look impressive in his last fight vs. undefeated 40-year old journeyman Leonard Bundu, who he struggled with in spots and failed to win by knockout against (as was expected). (The usually popular Thurman was booed by the MGM Grand crowd in Las Vegas after his performance.) Guerrero is a battle-tested, physical pressure fighter who may test Thurman like he's never been tested before.
• Suffered a left shoulder injury in 2014 which resulted in an 8-month layoff from the ring and perhaps significantly affected his performance last December vs. Bundu; the shoulder injury may still be a lingering issue for him. 
• Shows a lack of discipline at times, especially on the defensive end. Is prone to dropping his hands, which has often left him exposed to clean counter shots (most notably vs. Chaves and Soto Karass). 

Positives for Guerrero

• Former world champion (or interim world champion) in four different divisions (featherweight, super featherweight, lightweight, and welterweight). Aggressive, come-forward brawler who throws a high volume of punches. 6-time world champion who, immediately prior to fighting Floyd Mayweather, was ranked in the Ring Magazine pound-for-pound top 10.
• Experienced fighter who has fought current and former world champions such as Orlando Salido, Joel Casamayor, Michael Katsidis, Andre Berto, and current #1 pound-for-pound champion Mayweather. Has a solid 3-1 record against these opponents, with one no contest. (Guerrero's November 2006 loss to Salido was ruled a no contest after Salido tested positive for steroids after the fight.) The only clear loss in Guerrero's career was to Mayweather, with his other loss coming in December 2005 via somewhat controversial split decision loss to Gamaliel Diaz (who he defeated by 6th round KO in their rematch six months later).  
• Tough, crafty southpaw who fights particularly well on the inside. Is adept at smothering his opponents and turning fights into brawls, which could frustrate a young, relatively inexperienced fighter like Thurman. If Guerrero can turn the fight into a physical, inside brawl he has the chance to outpoint Thurman with his high work rate.
• Has a very good to great chin. Has never lost by TKO/KO and has only been knocked down once in his career, a flash knockdown vs. Joel Casamayor in the last round of a fight he was winning by a wide margin. Seemed largely unaffected by flush shots from Andre Berto (who at the time was a feared power puncher) in their November 2012 fight.
• Guerrero is an underrated, skilled fighter with good fundamentals. Throws many punches well but best punch is likely his left uppercut, which he even had success with in the early rounds of his fight vs. Mayweather. As evidenced by the fact that he is a 6-time world champion in four different weight divisions, Guerrero has actually long been one of the better boxers in the sport. Has underrated power, as evidenced by the fact that he knocked down career welterweight Andre Berto twice in the early rounds of their fight in only his second fight in the welterweight division.
• Very determined, relentless boxer who fights with a lot of heart. Also has very good stamina, generally fighting with the same level of activity in later rounds as he does in early rounds, as evidenced in his most recent fight - a brutal fight of the year-candidate brawl vs. Yoshihiro Kamegai last June. Will be highly determined to win this fight to maintain his status as a big money fighter. 

Negatives for Guerrero

• Has a solid chin but his defensive skills are questionable given the frequency with which he gets hit, particularly in recent fights. In Guerrero's most recent fight vs. Kamegai, he was hit with 278 power punches at a fairly high 38% connect rate per CompuBox stats. (Overall, more punches were landed in the Guerrero vs. Kamegai fight than any other fight in 2014 per CompuBox stats.) Guerrero was also the victim of numerous clean power shots in his other recent fights vs. Mayweather and Berto. As an inside brawler, Guerrero is more than willing to take a punch in order to throw a punch, a style which may prove disastrous vs. an elite power puncher like Thurman. Has shown a particular susceptibility to uppercuts, one of Thurman's better punches.
• Guerrero is 31 years old, 5 years older than Thurman. 31 isn't necessarily old, but given some of the brutal wars he's recently been involved in (in particular the Kamegai and Berto fights), how much does he really have left in the tank? Fighters with a brawler boxing style tend to have shorter life spans (in terms of prime) than other boxers. Guerrero in recent fights has also been more flat-footed and shown signs of slowing reflexes.
• Has been fairly inactive over the past few years, having fought only five times in the past four years - including only once in 2014 and once in 2013. With the long layoffs, how will he look vs. a potentially elite fighter in Thurman?
• Guerrero is the more experienced fighter but, who has he really beaten? The world champions he's beaten are generally considered B-level fighters. Guerrero has never beaten a top level fighter (his only fight vs. an elite fighter was vs. Mayweather, a fight which he lost decisively); in Thurman, Guerrero will be fighting an A-level world champion in what will be the 2nd toughest test of his career. Other than Mayweather and Thurman, Guerrero's toughest test was a November 2006 featherweight title fight vs. Orlando Salido, a fight which he lost decisively, but was later ruled a no contest due to Salido testing positive for steroids.

Prefight Summary

While I certainly wouldn't put him anywhere near the class of great fighters of this generation (Mayweather, Pacquiao, Hopkins, Marquez, etc.), I do think Robert Guerrero is one of the more underrated boxers in recent years. Aside from the Mayweather fight Guerrero has not received much press during his career, but this guy didn't become a 6-time world champion in 4 different weight classes and ranked in the Ring Magazine top 10 pound-for-pound in the prime of his career for no reason. Guerrero can box. He's a crafty, intelligent veteran who poses a threat to even elite opposition due to his experience, great chin, fearlessness, and all-around boxing skills, particularly his ability to outbox his opponents from the inside with volume and precision.

Guerrero has decisively beaten nearly all of the solid competition put in front of him, his lone clear loss coming at the hands of undefeated #1 pound-for-pound king Floyd Mayweather; even in that fight most would agree Guerrero actually won the first two rounds of the fight before Floyd adjusted and dominated the rest of the fight with his clear speed and skill advantages. Keith Thurman isn't a proven inside fighter so if Guerrero can get inside on Thurman and smother him, I wouldn't be surprised to see Guerrero maybe eke out a victory by outworking Thurman and not giving Thurman enough space to land his power punches.

But it is Guerrero's lack of discipline defensively, combined with Thurman's power and mobility that I think gives the clear edge to Thurman in this matchup. Although Guerrero can box he's become - especially in recent fights - more of a brawler who has no problem trading punches due to his great chin and decent power. But trading punches with Thurman, who is quickly proving to be one of the elite power punchers in boxing, is almost certainly a recipe for disaster. Thurman is strong, physically bigger than Guerrero, and mobile enough to thwart any Guerrero attempts to make the match a physical fight inside. He is also patient, skilled, and intelligent enough to outbox the slower and somewhat flat-footed Guerrero from the outside, despite Guerrero's slight reach advantage. Guerrero's chin is solid but if he gets hit with the number of clean, flush power shots vs. Thurman that he has been hit with in his last three fights (which I expect him to), this will be a fairly easy wide decision - if not early stoppage - victory for Thurman. I expect Thurman's youth, power, and patient yet aggressive boxing style to overwhelm the older, defensively suspect, and battle-tested but perhaps battle-worn Guerrero.

All-in-all, this fight will be Thurman's toughest test to date in his career; a win here will solidify his status as one of the future stars of boxing and even as a possible opponent for Floyd Mayweather some time in 2016 if not later this year.

Prediction: Thurman to win 

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