Fury vs. Wilder III: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Tyson Fury (30-0-1, 21 KOs) vs. Deontay Wilder (42-1-1, 41 KOs) 

Location:  T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: October 9, 2021
Weight class: Heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World heavyweight title
TV/Stream: ESPN/FOX PPV
Line (Bovada): Fury: -275, Wilder: +215   (10/9/21)
Purse: Fury: $6 million, Wilder: $4 million (base salary; Fury will be guaranteed at least $30 million, while Wilder will be guaranteed at least $20 million based upon the contracted 60/40 split for the 3rd fight, not including percentages of PPV profits)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Fury: Ring Magazine heavyweight champion, Wilder: #3 ranked heavyweight 
Style: Fury: Orthodox, Wilder: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Wilder wins this fight. Fight fans talk all the time about "puncher's chance." Wilder might actually be the best example in the history of boxing of a fighter who always has a puncher's chance with his historically great punching power that I think gives him a legitimate shot to beat anyone put in front of him - including the objectively more skilled Fury who's arguably won as many as 17 of the 19 rounds they've fought in their two previous fights. 

Wilder will be coming off the longest layoff of his career but Fury himself will be coming off his 2nd longest layoff - a nearly 20-month layoff during the latter part of which he caught COVID (reportedly suffering mild breathing and congestion issues as a result) and most recently had to also deal with the huge disappointment  of losing a potentially massive payday in a future unification bout with Anthony Joshua is what would've been the biggest fight in the history of UK boxing. (Two weeks ago, the favored Joshua lost his WBA, IBF, and WBO heavyweight titles to undefeated Ukrainian Olexandr Usyk; a victory by Joshua vs. Usyk followed by a Fury win tonight would've set the stage for a Joshua/Fury matchup in 2022 for the undisputed heavyweight championship in which Fury would've been the favorite. Paydays were expected to approach $100 million for each fighter in that matchup.)  

Will a fighter notorious for his unpredictability and at times (given his diagnosed bipolar disorder) lack of mental instability), coming off an extended layoff where he had to recover from COVID and experience the disappointment of losing a possible career-defining fight vs. Joshua be sufficiently motivated to beat a fighter he already feels he beat twice? (The first fight between Fury and Wilder in 2018 was officially scored a draw, though most felt Fury outboxed Wilder in that matchup.) Wilder comes into this fight seeking revenge for the embarrassing TKO loss in their February 2020 rematch - one gets the impression Wilder wants this more and has much more to lose career-wise than Fury in tonight's matchup. Despite the loss to Fury in their previous fight, Wilder seems extremely confident and determined to win - it wouldn't surprise me at all if he puts everything together and pulls off the stoppage... as he came within a fraction of a second of doing in the final round of their first fight.

But I think - as he's already demonstrated in the clear majority of the 19 rounds he's faced Wilder in their two previous fights - Fury's skills will be too much for Wilder to overcome. Since he beat Vladimir Klitschko in 2015, I've felt Fury is the best heavyweight of this generation (i.e., better than even prime Klitschko and the best heavyweight fighter since Lennox Lewis). Fury mostly outboxed Wilder in their first fight, then made adjustments to more effectively utilize his advantages in size and strength to completely dominate the slightly favored Wilder in last year's rematch. Wilder is renowned for his punching power, but not so much for his technical boxing skills or ability to make adjustments. Even with his new trainer, Malik Scott, I seriously doubt Wilder's ability to effectively make adjustments vs. a supremely-skilled heavyweight like Fury. Wilder failed to make adjustments in his previous fight vs. Fury (losing the first 6 rounds on 2 of the 3 judges' scorecards before getting stopped in the 7th) and even failed to make adjustments in his fight prior to that - his rematch vs. Luis Ortiz where he also arguably lost every round in that fight before stopping Ortiz in the 7th. 

Wilder is a predictable, relatively basic boxer who had trouble landing punches on Fury in both previous fights, landing only 16.5% of his attempted punches in their first fight and a still very low 24.1% in their rematch where Fury fought more aggressively coming forward. Wilder's punch output has also (noticeably) declined in recent fights. There's nothing in Wilder's previous fights - in particular the rematches he's already had vs. Fury and Ortiz - that makes me think he can make the adjustments necessary to have more than a puncher's chance of beating Fury. Wilder's nature is to fight one way (behind the punching power in his right hand); at 35 years old and arguably a bit past his prime, that's highly unlikely to change in a way that will be effective vs. perhaps the best heavyweight fighter of this generation. 

I think Fury, as he's indicated several times in recent pre-fight interviews, will be as aggressive and physical as he was in the last fight and aim for another early round stoppage of Wilder. Wilder, having full confidence in his own power and seeing how Fury bullied through his cautious approach in their rematch, will at some point in tonight's fight - probably early in the fight - feel he has no choice but to reciprocate Fury's aggression and come out swinging. 

While Wilder will likely be more prepared for Fury's tactics this time around, I don't see this fight going the distance - I see a stoppage one way or the other in the early to middle rounds. Most likely, Fury will be able to - as he did in the last fight - use his superior size, jab, movement, and overall skill advantage to outphysical and outwit Wilder to earn another TKO/KO victory. Fury's increased aggression will of course leave him more susceptible to Wilder's power, so it's certainly well within the range of possibility it's Wilder who gets the stoppage this time around.

Given the pricing of Fury as a (roughly) -300 betting favorite, I feel the bet with the most value as of now is the under 7.5 rounds (which can currently be found around even money odds), with a smaller bet on Fury to win by TKO/KO/DQ (which can also be found at around even money odds) also being worthwhile. The main fight could certainly go either way but very much looking forward to the all-heavyweight PPV card tonight!

Prediction: Fury to win

Recommended bets: 1) Under 7.5 rounds (bet to WIN .5 unit) 2) Fury to win by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to WIN .25 unit)

Pacquiao vs. Ugas: Why You Should Watch This Fight

 Fight: Manny Pacquiao (62-7-2, 39 KOs) vs. Yordenis Ugas (26-4, 12 KOs)

Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: August 21, 2021
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Major title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Welterweight title
TV/Stream: FOX PPV
Line (Bovada): Pacquiao: -400, Ugas: +300  (8/21/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao: #3 ranked welterweight, Ugas: #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Ugas: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

Manny Pacquiao vs. Errol Spence was set to be the biggest fight of the summer - an 8-division champion in Pacquiao universally recognized as one of the great pound-for-pound boxers of all-time vs. an undefeated, two-belt welterweight champion in Spence, considered arguably the best welterweight in the world and one of the top 5-6 boxers pound-for-pound in the world today. That was until Spence - only 10 days prior to the fight - had to abruptly pull out of the match after doctors uncovered a retinal tear in his left eye. 

Spence was replaced by Cuban boxer Yordenis Ugas, who was elevated from WBA Regular to WBA Super welterwieght champion this past January after Pacquiao was stripped of his title due to inactivity. (Pacquiao had won that WBA Super welterweight belt in his most recent fight way back in April 2019, a split decision vs. then-undefeated champion Keith Thurman.)

Given the ill-timed postponements of several highly-anticipated pay-per-view championship fights in recent weeks (Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant, Tyson Fury vs. Deontay Wilder, Teofimo Lopez vs. George Kambosos as some examples), Pacquiao vs. Ugas has emerged as possibly still the biggest, most intriguing matchup of the summer.  The fight pits an mega-popular legend in Pacquiao - the Boxing Writer's Association of America's Fighter of the Decade for the 2000s, WBC and WBO's Fighter of the Decade for the 2010s, and the only fighter in boxing history to hold world championships across 4 decades (1990s, 2000s, 2010s, 2020s) - vs. a very solid but unheralded Cuban fighter in Ugas in what will be by far the biggest fight in Ugas's career. Ugas, a bronze medalist for Cuba during the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, sports an unremarkable 26-4 record as a pro but has won 11 of his last 12 fights since 2014 - with the lone loss being a controversial split decision loss to then WBC welterweight champion Shawn Porter. (I personally scored that fight a draw.)

Pacquiao is 42 years old (turns 43 in December) and - having not fought in over 2 years - is coming off by far the longest layoff of his professional career. Pacquiao's two previous longest layoffs were the 12-month layoff he took after his controversial unanimous decision loss to Jeff Horn in Australia and the 11.5-month layoff he took after getting knocked out by Juan Manuel Marquez. If Pacquiao wins Saturday night's fight he regains the WBA Super welterweight belt that was stripped from him due to inactivity, and sets himself up for a possible superfight with Spence in 2022 after Spence recovers from his eye injury (or even a possible superfight with undefeated WBO welterweight champion Terence Crawford, who Pacquiao came extremely close to agreeing to terms with for a fight in the Middle East this summer, if Spence doesn't recover in time).

If Ugas wins, it would be the biggest win in the storied history of Cuban boxing (even if Cuba doesn't recognize the accomplishments of defected athletes such as Ugas) and sets him up with a possible unification fight with Spence in early 2022.   

Pacquiao vs. Ugas will be the first pay-per-view event hosted by Fox since Fox co-hosted the Wilder/Fury II boxing event with ESPN back in 2020.   

Wilder vs. Fury II: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Deontay Wilder (42-0-1, 41 KOs) vs. Tyson Fury (29-0-1, 20 KOs)
Location:  MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: February 22, 2020
Weight class: Heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World heavyweight title
TV/Stream: ESPN/FOX PPV
Line (5 Dimes): Wilder: -131, Fury: +121  (12/20/20)
Purse: Wilder: $5 million, Fury: $5 million (though both will be guaranteed at least $25 million each, not including percentages of PPV profits)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Fury: #1 ranked heavyweight
Style: Wilder: Orthodox, Fury: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

I've found it (mildly) surprising that a clear majority of boxing experts/sharps - including quite a few who picked Fury to win the first fight and actually thought he won that fight despite the fight being scored a draw - are picking Wilder to win by TKO/KO in the rematch. Indeed, Wilder by TKO/KO *might* be the most likely of all specific outcomes so might - especially at well above even money odds (currently +125 at 5Dimes) - be the best bet on this fight. As noted (perhaps ad nauseam) in the massive Fox/ESPN promotion for the fight, Deontay Wilder might have the hardest single punch in the *history* of boxing with his straight right hand. Wilder has the highest TKO/KO percentage in heavyweight boxing history (95.4%) and has either knocked out or knocked down every fighter he's ever faced in his professional career, including knocking Fury down twice in the last four rounds of their first fight. 

Wilder - who took up boxing relatively late at 20 years old - is actually a still-improving fighter who has shown noticeable improvement in most of his recent fights in particular. Wilder's improvement is reflected in the fact that in each of his two previous rematches (vs. Bermane Stiverne in November 2017 and Luis Ortiz in 2019), Wilder was able to finish his opponent faster in the rematch than he was in the first fight; it certainly stands to reason that there's a very good chance Wilder could look similarly impressive in tonight's rematch vs. Fury.

To his credit, Wilder did  make the necessary adjustments  - in the last four rounds of his first fight vs. Fury - to his punch trajectory that enabled him to knock Fury down twice and almost stop him in the 12th round. It stands to reason that Wilder's successful adjustments (which speak to at least a partial "figuring out" of Fury's defensive movement) will carry over into the rematch.

The fact that Fury just three months ago switched trainers (from Ben Davidson to the Kronk Gym's SugarHill Steward) for tonight's rematch might also be of concern to Fury supporters, as it typically takes time for even experienced, elite boxers to adjust to a new trainer (though Fury is familiar with Steward from having previously trained under his uncle Emmanuel Steward many years ago at the same gym). All indications are that the switch in trainers was made to implement a more aggressive, come-forward attack strategy vs. Wilder with the hopes of beating Wilder by knockout; this could very well prove to be a foolhardy strategy vs. one of the hardest punchers in the history of boxing as it perhaps will do little more than increase Fury's own chances of getting knocked out himself.

Furthermore, Fury weighing in for this fight at 273 pounds - 16.5 pounds heavier than he weighed in his first fight with Wilder - could render him less able to be as mobile and elusive as he likely will need to be at certain points of the fight, particularly in the late stages where he was knocked down twice in the previous fight vs. Wilder. (Despite the draw, Fury won the first fight in most people's eyes largely by employing his typical rangy, pot shot-from-distance style with constant movement that helped him mostly avoid Wilder's knockout punches for *most* of the fight.)

I did pick Wilder to win by TKO/KO in the first fight, though that was nearly entirely because I felt Fury took that fight too soon after a 2.5 year layoff  - a layoff riddled with mental health and substance abuse issues, as well as a near 150-pound weight gain - and not having fought any world-class competition in the months in the months leading up to that fight to prep himself. It seems even more boxing experts (including gambling "sharps" generally sharper at picking fights than myself) are picking Wilder to win by TKO/KO in tonight's rematch.

But despite all the concerns I've detailed above - including the recent trainer change and weight gain coming in to tonight's fight - I'm going to go against what seems to be the sentiment of most boxing experts and stick with my months-old (since the rematch was announced last Spring) prediction  that Tyson Fury will win his rematch with Wilder (and will win in likely decisive fashion).

Despite all the concerns I've noted above, at the end of the day Fury is the better-skilled, smarter, defensively-sharper, overall superior boxer who - by most boxing observers' estimation - decisively outboxed Wilder in their first fight, outside of the two rounds in the fight where he was knocked down. Yes, Wilder has proven himself to be one of the better knockout artists in boxing history, but I firmly believe the 12th-round knockdown in the first fight was more the result of Fury getting careless and believing he already had the fight won. (According to the official judges' scorecards, Fury would indeed have won the fight by split decision if he hadn't gotten knocked down in the last round). I see Fury ramping up his focus in the rematch and finding a way through his superior guile and fighting abilities - whether it be using his reach advantage and footwork to outbox Wilder from distance as he did in the first fight or using his size advantage and increased weight to impose his physicality on the inside as he's claimed he might do in the lead-up to the fight - to avoid the knockout punches he suffered when he got careless in the late stages of the first fight and box his way to a decisive victory.

One oft-repeated mantra of boxing is that in rematches between a boxer and a puncher, it is generally the (more fundamentally skilled) boxer who performs better in the rematch, as the boxer is typically more equipped to make the tactical adjustments necessary to more decisively outbox the puncher (given that the puncher is typically less diverse in terms of the range of his fighting abilities). Many are of the belief that it will actually be Wilder who performs better in tonight's fight, given that he did make adjustments in the late stages of the previous fight and given his history of improvement in rematches - as well as the room he has as a still somewhat raw fighter to improve in comparison to Fury, who many felt fought about as well as he could fight in the first match, yet still only earned a draw. But I think the boxer-over-puncher in rematches mantra will hold up in this fight (as it's more often than not held up in similar situations) and think Fury has trained to exploit the flaws in Wilder that he realized from the first fight (which is likely at least partly reflected in his decision to change trainers and come into this fight over 15 pounds heavier).

So I'm taking the superior boxer (Fury) to outbox and outwit the superior puncher (Wilder) in the rematch. While I think Fury most likely wins by decision, I prefer the bet of Fury simply to win (which can currently be had at +110 or better) given Fury's stated strategy of going into the fight with the purpose of trying to knock Wilder out in the early rounds (a strategy which is evidenced by Fury's trainer change and coming into this rematch at a heavier weight). I'm partially hedging the bet with a bet on the under 10.5 rounds (which I got early in the week at +110 but can still be had for around -115); this bet covers most scenarios where Wilder knocks Fury out but also covers most scenarios where Fury actually pulls off what it seems he's going into the fight with the full intention of doing - knocking Wilder out.

Lastly, I'd like to note that I largely view the Wilder vs. Fury rematch - both in the promotion of the fight and in the actual fight itself - as a (very well-played) game of optics; for the fight itself these "optics" I think have swayed even some boxing experts to the Wilder side of the ledger.

Optics present Wilder/Fury II as a megafight; one of the most anticipated heavyweight fights of this generation and perhaps the most anticipated heavyweight fight since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson back in 2002. But the reality is this fight might be the most over-promoted fight in the 100+ year history of boxing. The massive multi-million dollar, dual-network promotion invested in this fight belies the fact that the first Wilder/Fury fight only did 325,000 PPV buys and that both fighters have had disappointing ratings in *all* the fights they've appeared in since that first fight. Neither Wilder or Fury's name carries mainstream cache (the majority of Americans don't even know who they are) and as of right now just a few hours prior to the fight, there are still numerous tickets available for the fight in an arena with a capacity of approximately 17,000 for boxing events. As of now, neither fighter even has a solid hall-of-fame resume (though Wilder's is perhaps borderline); in sum, one would be very hard-pressed to believe the actual caliber of this fight comes even close to matching the promotional resources invested into it.

Wilder's knockdowns, most notably his dramatic knockdown of Fury in the 12th round of their previous fight, provide impressive optics for those who might otherwise have been inclined to believe Fury would win the rematch. The reality is, Fury did avoid Wilder's power for nearly the entire fight and - in my opinion - likely only got caught in the 12th round after getting careless thinking he had the fight won.

Wilder's "swagger" (for lack of a better term at this moment,) is yet another impressive optic. Coming from a family of preachers, Wilder was blessed with a gift of gab and exudes extreme amounts of confidence - not only in how he expresses himself verbally but in his overall demeanor. At the end of the day, Wilder has always gotten the job done in the ring. But I do also think the swagger, confidence, and optics of his knockdowns have overstated his actual abilities a bit and think he's been a bit overrated (by casual fans and boxing experts alike) as a result. While expressed differently, I do believe Fury has a comparable level of confidence and self-belief as Wilder to match his superior skills and believe that will show clearly in tonight's fight.

Prediction: Fury to win

Recommended bets: 1) Fury to win (bet to RISK 1 unit) 2) Wilder/Fury under 10.5 rounds (risk .5 unit)

Spence vs. Porter: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Errol Spence (25-0, 21 KOs) vs. Shawn Porter (30-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: September 28, 2019
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight and IBF World welterweight titles
TV: Fox PPV
Line (5 Dimes): Spence: -925, Porter: +725 (9/27/19)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Spence: #6 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked welterweight, Porter: #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Spence: Southpaw, Porter: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

The welterweight division (147 lbs) has long been considered by many to be the deepest and most talented division in boxing. The biggest debate within the division - and perhaps the biggest debate in all of boxing - is whether Errol Spence or Terence Crawford is the best welterweight boxer in the world.

The undefeated Crawford - signed to a Top Rank promotional company largely devoid of quality welterweight opposition - has unfortunately had limited opportunities to face other elite welterweights. Nevertheless, he's continued to impress since moving up to welterweight last year with TKO victories over an undefeated Jeff Horn (which earned him Horn's WBC welterweight title), an undefeated Jose Benavidez Jr., and a solid, skilled veteran in Amir Khan. Many feel it's a two-man race between only Crawford and Vasiliy Lomachenko as to who's the best boxer in the world pound for pound.

But this Saturday night, Spence gets to make his case as the best in the welterweight division (and perhaps in all of boxing) vs. an opponent likely better than anyone Crawford has faced in his career in Shawn Porter. Spence is coming off a highly impressive victory of his own in winning every round on all three judges' scorecards this past March vs. then-undefeated and pound-for-pound ranked Mikey Garcia; prior to washing Garcia, Spence won 14 of 15 fights - including 11 consecutive fights - by TKO/KO. The undefeated Spence has not only won, but dominated, every fight of his 25-fight professional career but now faces another elite welterweight in Porter, whose only two losses have been to a then-undefeated Keith Thurman (who lost the first fight of his career this past July to Manny Pacquiao) and to a then-undefeated Kell Brook (who lost to Spence in 2017).

This fight is intriguing as it may be the first time in Spence's career he's fighting an opponent who can match (and arguably even exceed) him in terms of pure strength and physicality. (Porter - a former star football player in high school - has the physical build of a football player and competed mostly as a middleweight (160 lbs) in his early professional career and as an amateur.) Given these attributes - and given Porter's underrated boxing IQ as well as decided advantage in experience vs. top-level welterweight opponents - this is likely the toughest fight Spence could make at welterweight other than a much-anticipated superfight with Crawford.

Spence vs. Porter - a welterweight unification title fight - will be Fox's 3rd boxing PPV fight this year (as well as 3rd in the history of the network) following fight-of-the-year candidate Pacquiao vs. Thurman this past July and Spence vs. Garcia back in March. The winner of this fight is set up nicely for a possible unification megafight (and likely 8-figure payday) next year vs. Pacquiao, the current WBA welterweight champion.

Prefight Analysis

Outside of Terence Crawford, I've felt for a while now that Porter might be the toughest challenge for Spence at welterweight. Unlike pretty much every other welterweight Spence has fought (with the exception of Brook, who was actually beating Spence on two out of three judges' scorecards through seven rounds prior to ultimately getting stopped in the 11th round), Porter is on the same level as Spence in terms of pure strength and physicality. Porter is a strong, stocky welterweight who is actually used to fighting boxers bigger than him - whether as an amateur or very early in his professional career where he fought mostly at middleweight or in sparring where his trainer (father Kenny Porter) routinely matches him up with middleweights and super middleweights. (Porter's training for Saturday night's fight included sparring sessions with an undefeated, elite former super middleweight champion in David Benavidez.) Given Porter's own physical strength and experience fighting bigger opponents, it's tough to imagine Porter getting overwhelmed by Spence's size (as has been the fate of most of Spence's recent opponents).

Porter has a more aggressive, physical style than Spence; that combined with his slightly faster hand speed I think will allow Porter to beat the more patient Spence to the punch and outwork him for much of the early rounds as Spence settles in to the fight. Porter is a somewhat versatile, underrated-IQ fighter who - while preferring to brawl from the inside - has shown in his last two fights (vs. Yorgenis Ugas and in his early rounds vs. Danny Garcia) that he's capable of using foot movement and feints to box from the outside. Porter's unpredictability here combined with his typically awkward, wide-swinging style I think could work well for Porter in the early rounds vs. the more cautious Spence as he tries to figure Porter out. Spence's head movement in particular isn't great which I think will leave him susceptible to Porter's counterpunching and generally sharp left hooks on the inside.

Porter should also be given credit for being the much more experienced boxer in this matchup, having fought top welterweights such as Keith Thurman (who was undefeated at the time), Kell Brook (who was undefeated at the time), Danny Garcia (whose only loss at the time was to Thurman), Adrien Broner, and Devon Alexander (whose only loss at the time was to Timothy Bradley). Porter also has history of being a sparring partner for Manny Pacquiao when Pacquiao was in his prime (in preparation for Pacquiao's 2009 fight with Miguel Cotto and 2011 fight with Shane Mosley).By comparison, the only top welterweight Spence has fought in his career was Kell Brook, who at the time was coming off a TKO loss to Gennady Golovkin at middleweight.

Porter strikes me as the more determined fighter and arguably has more to prove than Spence does, as most folks seem to be writing this fight off as an easy one for the approximately 10-1 favorite Spence. But at least early, I expect this fight to surprise and be more competitive than most are expecting.

I do, however, think Spence will wear Porter down in the middle to late rounds with his punching power (in particular to the body) and superior technical skills. Spence has made it known that - unlike his most recent fight with Mikey Garcia where he largely outboxed Garcia from the outside - he's looking to make a statement and is gunning for a knockout victory vs. Porter. So after the early rounds, I expect Spence to apply pressure and try to fight Porter mostly on the inside. Porter can be elusive but I think given the PPV stage for this fight (Porter's first PPV fight and biggest fight of his career) that Porter (and his inner machismo) will look to trade punches with Spence on the inside more than he should (which I think will be to Porter's detriment). Porter has the hand speed and an aggressive enough style to outwork Spence but does not have the most defensively responsible technique on the inside. I see the power punches Spence will land from close range - especially to the body - being far more effective than Porter's pesky, but relatively innocuous style that has earned him only one TKO/KO victory in the last 4.5 years out of six fights. Though Porter is on Spence's level in terms of strength and physicality, I think Spence is a bit stronger and a bit more physical, with much greater punching power.

As the rounds progress, I think Spence - an underrated technician who dominated future hall-of-famer and four-division world champion Mikey Garcia largely by outboxing him from distance - will be increasingly effective in timing Porter with his jab and power punches. Porter has shown that he can box from the outside but note that Porter actually lost most of his early rounds vs. Danny Garcia while boxing from distance; Porter went on to win the middle rounds and the fight only after switching to a more brawling style inside. Also earlier this year, Porter barely eked out a split-decision victory boxing primarily from distance vs. a three-loss fighter in Yordenis Ugas, a fight some feel he lost. So Porter's best results might have to come from fighting inside which - unfortunately for him - will leave him more open to counterpunching and body shots from the bigger, harder-punching Spence, who is expected to be going for the knockout on Saturday night. I wouldn't be surprised if this fight becomes a mismatch on the inside by the later rounds.

Despite this I do, however, think Porter's elusiveness, determination, and grit will get him through the 12 rounds. As mentioned previously, Porter has a lot of experience fighting bigger guys and has also never even come close to being stopped in his professional career. Porter not only has horizontal elusiveness with his feet, he has great vertical elusiveness driven by his naturally low center of gravity that I expect to somewhat mitigate the effectiveness of Spence's power punches from close range.

If Spence were to stop Porter I think it would be (by far) the most impressive win of his career and would give him a solid case as not only the best welterweight boxer in the world but best boxer overall pound-for-pound. It wouldn't be surprising if Spence got the stoppage late but all things considered, the value I think lies with Porter surviving the distance in what should be a clear decision victory for Spence (though again I think the fight will be competitive early). I think there's value in both Spence by decision (which can currently be found at -140) and Spence by unanimous decision (which currently can be found at +115).

I will be at this fight Saturday night in Los Angeles - definitely hoping this one turns out to be every bit as good as Porter's fight-of-the-year candidate with Keith Thurman three years ago in NYC!

Prediction: Spence by decision

Recommended bet: Spence wins by any decision (bet to WIN .5 unit) 

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Errol Spence vs. Mikey Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Errol Spence (24-0, 21 KOs) vs. Mikey Garcia (39-0, 30 KOs)
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Date: March 16, 2019
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  IBF World welterweight title
TV: Fox PPV
Line: Spence: -360, Garcia: +325 (5 Dimes, 3/16/19)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Spence: #10 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked welterweight, Garcia: #7 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked lightweight
Style: Spence: Southpaw, Garcia: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

While well-known amongst boxing fans, Errol Spence and Mikey Garcia are far from household names in the mainstream sports world. But Spence vs. Garcia is probably one of the more intriguing matchups of the past several years. Spence vs. Garcia is the first matchup featuring two undefeated, Ring Magazine top 10 pound-for-pound fighters since Andre Ward fought Sergey Kovalev in 2016 and is the first such matchup (between undefeated, top 10 pound-for-found-rated fighters) at welterweight  since Floyd Mayweather Jr. fought Ricky Hatton in 2007.

Errol Spence - the current IBF welterweight champion of the world - is an undefeated former Olympian who is considered by many to be the best fighter in arguably the most talented weight division in the sport. Spence is a skilled, versatile boxer who's used his typical advantages over his opponents in size, speed, power, and athleticism  to not only win, but dominate every fight of his 24-fight professional career. Spence has won 14 of his last 15 fights - including his last 11 - by TKO/KO.

This Saturday night Spence will face Mikey Garcia, another undefeated fighter who is trying to become only the 6th 5-division champion in the history of the sport (Manny Pacquiao, Mayweather, Oscar De La Hoya, Sugar Ray Leonard, and Thomas Hearns), a feat which would make his already likely future induction into the International Boxing Hall of Fame a certainty.

Like most opponents on Spence's resume, Garcia - a natural lightweight (135 lbs) - will come into Saturday night's fight as the smaller fighter with disadvantages in power, speed, and athleticism. But Garcia is an immensely talented fighter who most would consider to be the more skilled boxer with the higher ring IQ. Garcia is blessed with a unique combination of power, accuracy, timing, and efficient footwork that Spence has never seen before and will have to respect if he wants to win this fight.

This will be the first fight of Garcia's career as an underdog (+325 at the time of this blog) and will likely be by far the toughest fight of his career to date. But if Garcia - who spent the majority of his career at featherweight (126 lbs) and super featherweight (130 lbs) - can beat the man considered by many to be the best (and most avoided) welterweight in the world in his first fight as a welterweight, he'll become an instant boxing legend, a legend in the Mexican-American communities of the United States, and perhaps even a legend back in his parents' home country of Mexico.

If Spence wins the fight (as expected by most), it'll likely set the stage for a title unification super fight vs. one of the other elite welterweight title holders promoted by Premier Boxing Champions - Shawn Porter, Manny Pacquiao, or Keith Thurman - either later this year or early 2019 at the latest.

Spence vs. Garcia will be the first boxing pay-per-view (PPV) ever carried by the Fox network and the second boxing PPV to take place at the 105,000+ capacity AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (home of the National Football League's Dallas Cowboys) - the first being Canelo Alvarez vs. Liam Smith in 2016.

Prefight Analysis

The outcome of Saturday night's fight largely depends on on how well Garcia's skills carry up to welterweight. Most observers agree that Garcia is probably the better pure boxer and all-around more skilled fighter in this matchup. To date Garcia has also probably had the more impressive career, having already won major world titles in 4 weight divisions and already likely secured a future spot in the International Boxing Hall of Fame behind his elite punching power in both hands complemented with exceptional timing, punch accuracy, and footwork.

Earlier this winter, Garcia spent 5 weeks of his training camp with world-renowned sports nutritionist Victor Conte to build muscle mass and gain strength - while retaining quickness and speed - for his move up to welterweight. If Garcia is able to carry his punching power up to welterweight without losing reaction time and the ability to move on his feet that he had at lower weights than this fight is much closer to a true 50/50 fight than the 75/25 to 80/20 fight the oddsmakers currently have this matchup graded as. Behind one of the best power jabs in the sport and the ability to counter accurately off his back foot, Garcia is very capable of performing better than then-IBF welterweight champion Kell Brook in his May 2017 fight vs. Spence, who on two of the three official judges' scorecards outpointed Spence over the first five rounds of their fight.

Garcia's patient, yet accurate and concussive punching power could be the perfect antidote to Spence's aggressive, lunge-forward style as Spence has shown susceptibility to clean counters when executing his attack (as seen in his early rounds vs. Brook).

There is a reason why Garcia sought out this fight and is extremely confident headed in to this matchup. Spence is a very good to perhaps great fighter but Garcia may just be a historically great fighter - a win Saturday night in his first fight at welterweight vs. the man many consider the best (and most avoided) fighter in the division will go a very long way towards proving that.

But, at the end of the day, I think the natural weight deficiency will be (way) too much for Garcia to overcome. It's been rare but we have seen instances of boxers moving up multiple weight classes to win a major title vs. an elite fighter in only their first fight at that weight class. But we've never seen a fighter move up two weight classes to beat the guy many consider to be not only the best fighter in the weight class, but also the best power puncher in the weight class with the highest knockout ratio (88%) in the division.

The weight discrepancy is further compounded by the fact that Spence is considered big for the weight class. Spence is currently the IBF welterweight champ but he's a very big, physically-imposing welterweight with a football background to boot. There is little doubt he would be the best fighter at super welterweight if he moved up to 154 pounds and he would likely be a highly successful fighter even at middleweight (160 lbs). As talented as Garcia is - and perhaps he really is the historically great talent many seem to think - one has to wonder what kind of chance a natural lightweight realistically has vs. a fighter with the athleticism and power that Spence has and vs. a fighter is Spence who could conceivably fight at an elite level at as high as middleweight. Garcia has in the past been knocked down by a light-fisted puncher at super featherweight (Roman Martinez) and - although he won the junior welterweight (140 lbs) title decisively last March vs. Sergey Lipinets - he was hit cleanly quite often by the tough Russian and didn't come close to stopping him offensively. In that fight vs. Lipinets, the skill discrepancy between Garcia and the Russian was apparent but Lipinets' size and toughness kept the fight somewhat competitive, particularly in the middle rounds where he had his most success. If Lipinets could stay competitive with Garcia at 140 lbs, I quite frankly see a (much) bigger, stronger, more athletic and skilled Spence being infinitely more competitive to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if it's an easy fight for him this Saturday night.

The theory behind this fight between a natural lightweight in Garcia and a pseudo-middleweight in Spence being competitive is based primarily on the thought that Garcia's skill advantage gives him a real shot but Spence's skills are being (way) underrated here. Again, Spence is a fighter who has not only beaten, but dominated every fighter who has stepped inside the ring with him. This included a domination of Brook - who many considered to be one of the most skilled pound-for-pound fighters in boxing at the time and who arguably is on the same level as Garcia in terms of skill - in Brook's home country to win the IBF welterweight title. This also included a quick 5th round destruction (in April 2016) of former WBO light welterweight champion Chris Algieri, a feather-fisted but slick and very mobile fighter who even Manny Pacquiao was unable to stop through 12 rounds. (That 5th-round stoppage was the first and only stoppage loss of Algieri's career.)

To be fair, Spence's resume isn't too impressive outside of Brook, gritty veteran (and former 2-division champion) Lamont Peterson (who Spence defeated last year by 7th-round stoppage), and maybe Algieri but Garcia's resume is also far from noteworthy. There's irony in Garcia being considered by many (including myself) to be a future likely future hall-of-famer, yet through 39 professional fights, he has yet to face another hall-of-fame caliber fighter himself.

The expected fight dynamics don't work too well in Garcia's favor either. Garcia is typically a slow starter and not the most active puncher in terms of volume. Even Adrien Broner - another notoriously slow starter and low-volume puncher who stayed ultra-conservative throughout his unanimous decision loss to Garcia in 2017 -  was able to win four rounds on two judges scorecards vs. Garcia, including two of the first four rounds. Garcia's tendency to start slow and pick up the pace in the middle rounds may not work well against a bigger, more active and aggressive fighter like Spence who has solid stamina and a proven ability to finish strong in the later rounds (see Spence's 11th round stoppage of Brook despite Brook's successes in the early rounds).  

Garcia has one of the best jabs in boxing but Spence has a solid jab of his own and a 4" reach advantage that will at least to some degree mitigate the effectiveness of Garcia's jab. Spence is also a devastating body puncher - perhaps the best in the sport today - which I'd expect to neutralize Garcia's counter punching as the fight progresses.

Especially given Garcia's soft body physique, I do think Spence's body punching will play the biggest role in what I expect to be a clear and decisive win for him Saturday night. Garcia is a tremendously intelligent and talented fighter but I think Spence's natural advantages in size, pure strength, athleticism, and punching power will be too much for him to overcome - especially in the later rounds.

Given Spence's physical advantages and the fact that he's won 14 out of his last 15 fights - including his last 11 - by TKO/KO, I think the most likely result of Saturday's fight is Spence by TKO/KO. But given Garcia's technical prowess - which includes solid fundamentals defensively - and ability to move well on his feet, I wouldn't be surprised if he lasts the full 12 rounds in what I still think would be a clear unanimous decision victory for Spence. While Spence to win by stoppage (currently being offered at better than even money odds) and Spence to win in rounds 7-12 (currently offered at better than 2-1 odds) are solid bets with strong value (and are bets I've placed smaller side wagers on), the bet I like the most here for mitigation of risk is Spence to win by KO or unanimous decision, currently being offered at 5Dimes at approximately -175 odds.

Spence vs. Garcia is a true legacy-defining fight and by far the most important fight of both fighters' careers. It will be interesting to see how both fighters - both of whom are typically very calm and composed by nature - perform in the big moment!

Prediction: Spence by TKO/KO

Recommended bets: 1) Spence by KO or unanimous decision (bet to WIN 1 unit) 

2) Spence by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to RISK .25 unit)

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Garcia vs. Guerrero: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Danny Garcia (31-0, 18 KOs) vs. Robert Guerrero (33-3-1, 18 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: January 23, 2016
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC Welterweight title (recently vacated by Floyd Mayweather Jr.)
TV: Fox
Line: Garcia -1000, Guerrero +800 (5 Dimes, 1/23/16)
Purse: Garcia: $1.5 million, Guerrero: $1.2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #8 ranked welterweight; was Ring Magazine junior welterweight champion prior to moving up to welterweight, Guerrero: Not ranked (#6 ranked welterweight by WBC)
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Guerrero: Southpaw
Referee: Jack Reiss

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Garcia opened in late December of last year as a solid -825 favorite, with Guerrero as a 4.75-1 (+475) underdog. Betting has fluctuated since then but for the most part has been with the younger, undefeated Garcia, who is currently a -1000 favorite, with Guerrero priced as an 8-1 (+800) underdog.

Why Danny Garcia will win

On paper this could be an easy fight for Garcia. He is an undefeated former junior welterweight champion with power and is in the prime of his career facing an older, very battle worn fighter in Guerrero - who is just 2-2 in his last four fights. Each of Guerrero's last three fights have been wars and he was knocked down in the most recent two of those fights (vs. Aaron Martinez and Keith Thurman). 

Garcia is a patient and poised counterpuncher who should be able to capitalize on the fact that Guerrero's reflexes and defensive skills appear to have waned with age and the wear and tear of those recent fights (as evidenced by the fact that Guerrero barely won a split decision as a 40-1 favorite in his last fight vs. Martinez, which included getting knocked down early by an opponent in Martinez who has only won 4 of his 25 career fights by TKO/KO). Garcia has generally had problems with fighters who move well and can box from distance but Guerrero, despite having the ability to box from the outside, is a brawler at heart and will likely stand right in front of Danny for large portions of the fight.

In terms of experience, Garcia has been criticized for title defenses vs. questionable opponents but his overall resume is pretty solid, having beaten quality opponents such as Lucas Matthysse, Lamont Peterson, Amir Khan, Erik Morales (twice), and Zab Judah. Garcia has actually been an overachiever in his (thus far perfect) career, decisively winning fights even when he came in as a clear underdog (as was the case when he fought Matthysse and Khan, who were among the most feared and avoided fighters in boxing at the times Garcia fought them).

Garcia has never been knocked down or knocked out as a pro so it would be tough to imagine Guerrero - especially at this point of his career - affecting the course of this fight with his power. (Guerrero hasn't knocked down an opponent since his fight vs. Andre Berto in November 2012.)

Guerrero on the other hand has been getting hit often and fairly consistently throughout his recent fights; Garcia is a very good offensive fighter who should be able to land power punches - including his left hook which is considered by many one of the best left hooks in boxing -  with little difficulty. Garcia has knocked down his opponent in six out of his last eight fights (with ten knockdowns in those six fights) so it would not be a surprise to see Danny score knockdowns vs. Guerrero and possibly even get the stoppage vs. a past prime (and seemingly rapidly fading) Guerrero.

Why Robert Guerrero will win

Yeah he's a sizable underdog, but we can't forget that Guerrero is a former world champion/interim world champion in four weight divisions (featherweight, super featherweight, lightweight, and welterweight) and just 2.5 years ago was ranked the Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #9 fighter in the world after having gone over seven years without losing a fight. The fact is Guerrero could (and can still) box; from a technical standpoint many would say he actually has better boxing skills than Garcia both from distance and on the inside.   

Guerrero is a crafty, technically skilled southpaw who still poses a challenge even for A-level opponents with his experience, toughness, and versatile inside/outside boxing abilities. The only clear losses in Guerrero's career were against Keith Thurman and recently retired pound-for-pound king Floyd Mayweather Jr. - two A-level fighters who move well; Garcia is not as skilled or mobile as either of the two. Guerrero is the much more experienced inside fighter so could have a tactical advantage in a brawl (and most recent Guerrero fights have devolved into brawls), but Guerrero could also give Garcia problems if he stays on his feet and boxes from the outside, a style which has given Garcia problems in multiple recent fights (including his recent controversial decisions vs. Peterson and Mauricio Herrera).

It's important to note that Guerrero has had six fights over the last three years at welterweight (where he was an interim world welterweight champion), whereas this will only be Garcia's second fight as a true 147-pound welterweight after spending the majority of his pro career at junior welterweight.

A third generation Mexican-American, Guerrero will be fighting tonight in his home state of California and - with the number of Mexican-Americans and Mexicans expected to be in attendance in downtown Los Angeles - he will likely be the strong crowd favorite.

If Guerrero can maintain a high punch output vs. an often patient Garcia and his chin holds up, the opportunity is there for an upset - especially if he can neutralize Garcia's power by staying inside and pushing the fight towards a brawl. This is a winnable fight for Guerrero if he fights with his head and can somehow tap into the energy and determination he fought with in his prime just a few years ago.

Prefight Analysis

If this was a prime Robert Guerrero fighting Danny Garcia I would take Guerrero in this fight without too much thought, even at less favorable odds. Prime Guerrero was an underrated fighter who could outbox you from the outside with his jab, above average reach, and foot movement but was also adept at smothering from close range and outworking his opponents inside. Guerrero is the more experienced welterweight who overall probably still has a higher boxing IQ and slightly better boxing skills than the younger, more athletic Garcia. At his best, Guerrero fights with a relentless determination that would be tough for a typically laid-back fighter like Garcia to match over the course of 12 rounds.

But I don't see the current version of Guerrero winning this fight. Guerrero has regressed defensively and noticeably slowed in recent fights, to the point where he had to go to war to win competitive decisions vs. opponents who were wide underdogs (see the aforementioned matchup withMartinez and his June 2014 decision victory vs. Yoshihiro Kamegai). Guerrero endured quite a bit of punishment in these fights vs. lesser opponents (in addition to getting pummeled in a recent wide unanimous decision loss to Thurman); there is a good chance he will endure similar - if not greater - punishment at the hands of Garcia, a legitimate top 15-20 pound-for-pound boxer with power who is in the prime of his career.

Garcia's dangerous power combined with Guerrero's seemingly faded defensive skills should give Danny a chance to win this fight by stoppage but I think Guerrero's proven toughness (he's a resilient  guy who's never come closed to being stopped in his career) and the fact that Danny will be fighting at 147 lbs for only the second time in his career makes me lean towards Garcia by decision as the best bet as I think Guerrero will find a way to survive the 12 rounds.

Another point to consider here is that as the "A-side" fighter in this matchup backed by prominent (and highly influential) boxing manager Al Haymon, there is a good chance that a close fight here will be scored for the more politically-connected Garcia (see Garcia's highly controversial wins vs. Peterson and Herrera as previous examples of questionable scoring in Garcia fights). Garcia is a young, undefeated fighter with a potentially lucrative future in major network boxing (including possible PPV fights); it is certainly in Haymon and other network boxing executives' interest to protect Garcia's marketability as an elite fighter.

In any case, I expect this to be an entertaining fight - pretty good matchup of offensive-minded boxers who won't back down - and should be a nice addition to the Mexico vs. Puerto Rico rivalry (despite both fighters being American born).

Prediction: Garcia by decision (1 unit)

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