Ward vs. Rodriguez: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Andre Ward (26-0-0, 14 KOs) vs. Edwin Rodriguez (24-0-0, 16 KOs)
Location: Citizens Business Bank Arena, Ontario, California
Date: November 16, 2013
Weight class: Super Middleweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None (WBA (Super) World Super Middleweight and Ring Magazine Super Middleweight championships were on line but Rodriguez did not make weight)
TV: HBO
Line: Ward -2000, Rodriguez +1250 (5 Dimes, 11/16/13)
Purse: Ward: $1.9 million, Rodriguez: $1 million (Note: Rodriguez was fined $200,000 from $1 million purse for not making weight, $100,000 of which went to Ward)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Ward - #2 ranked pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine super middleweight champion), Rodriguez - #7 ranked super middleweight
Style: Ward: Orthodox, Rodriguez: Orthodox

Positives for Ward

• #2 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport today. Undefeated master technician who hasn't lost as a pro or as an amateur since he was 12 years old. Has great all-around skills and has no true weaknesses. 1996 Olympic gold medalist and future Hall-of-Famer.
• Hasn't truly been tested in his career, this despite having fought arguably the toughest schedule of any boxer over the past few years - which includes Showtime's Super Six World Boxing Classic tournament (where Ward was undefeated).
• Very versatile, crafty boxer who fights superbly both inside and outside. Physical fighter who is very skilled at smothering opponents wearing them down on the inside. Can box and brawl very well.
• Has great instincts and is excellent at adjusting to his opponents during the fight. Along with Floyd Mayweather and Bernard Hopkins is one of the master technicians in the sport today.
• Smart defensively, particularly on the inside. 
• Highly accurate puncher who throws well-timed jabs and is good at attacking the body on the inside. 
• Extremely intelligent, high-IQ boxer who is highly focused. Very humble fighter who does not take any opponent lightly. 
• Reliable chin. Has only been knocked down once in his career.

Negatives for Ward

• Hasn't fought in over 14 months due to surgery for a serious right shoulder injury. Will the inactivity/surgery affect his return?
• Is sometimes passive in early rounds while figuring out his opponent.
• Not exceptionally powerful; doesn't have one punch KO power. This could give Rodriguez a full 12 rounds to land something surprising to upset Ward.
• How good is Ward's chin really? He's been knocked down before and there have been spots in previous fights where he's been shook up by lesser opponents. 

Positives for Rodriguez

• Undefeated, solid, aggressive volume puncher with good power in both hands. Very hungry, determined fighter who will make every effort to pull off the upset vs. Ward. 
• Naturally gifted fighter with very good athletic ability.
• Tall fighter with good reach. Uses his length well vs. most opponents to establish his jab. Will have a 5" reach advantage vs. Ward. 
• Throws punches from awkward angles, making him unpredictable. Rodriguez's unpredictability could make it harder for Ward to avoid Rodriguez's punches in spots and time his own counter punches. 
• Rodriguez's defense has gotten better over the past few fights. He has good head movement and uses the shoulder roll well to minimize the impact of punches. 

Negatives for Rodriguez

• Fighting the #2 pound-for-pound fighter in boxing today; likely going into the fight out-classed in terms of skill, talent, and boxing IQ.
• Lack of experience at the top level; Rodriguez hasn't fought the same level of opponents Ward has. This will be Rodriguez's first fight vs. an elite boxer.
• Rodriguez likely physically drained from trying to make weight (which he failed to do), which may increase the likelihood he shows fatigue or even gets knocked out during the fight.
• Has improved defensively but aggressive, wild punching style often leaves him susceptible to counter punches.

Prefight Summary

Barring lingering after-effects from his 14 months of inactivity or recent shoulder injury, this should be a very easy fight for Ward. Ward is a future all-time great, Hall-of-Fame boxer who is clearly superior to Rodriguez in terms of natural talent, technical skills, and boxing IQ. Ward should be able effectively counter Rodriguez's highly aggressive style with accurate punches in the early rounds and eventually work his way inside, wearing Rodriguez down with punishing body shots. Rodriguez is hungry and undefeated, but he is not skilled enough to outbox an elite talent like Ward over 12 rounds.

Given Ward's lack of KO power and the fact that Rodriguez is a fairly big, athletic guy who's never been down in his career, I think the most likely outcome for the fight is Ward by a wide, unanimous decision. However, Ward is very good at wearing his opponents down on the inside with body punches and, given that Rodriguez may be coming into the fight physically drained from trying (and failing) to make weight, there is a good possibility Ward gets the stoppage inside 12 rounds.

Rodriguez has good power in both hands and Ward has been knocked down before so Rodriguez does have a puncher's chance if he can land a lucky punch or two (especially given his unorthodox, unpredictable punching style). There's also the possibility Ward is still rusty from 14 months of inactivity or that his shoulder (which had been a problem for him since he was an amateur) gives him problems during the fight that Rodriguez can exploit. But even if there's some adversity, Ward's experience and savvy alone should guide him to a fairly easy victory, whether that be by wide unanimous decision or by TKO/KO.

Prediction: Ward by decision 

Garcia vs. Martinez: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Mikey Garcia (32-0-0, 27 KOs) vs. Roman Martinez (27-1-2, 16 KOs)
Location: American Bank Center, Corpus Christi, Texas
Date: November 9, 2013
Weight class: Super Featherweight (130 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Super Featherweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Garcia -1500, Martinez +1000 (5 Dimes, 11/9/13)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia - Ring Magazine featherweight champion, Martinez - #3 ranked junior lightweight
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Martinez: Orthodox

Positives for Garcia

• Very good/great boxing technician with excellent punching power. Has one punch KO power but can also wear you down through the fight with powerful, accurate punches. 27 of Garcia's 32 victories (84%) have been by TKO or KO. If not the hardest, one of the hardest punchers in boxing pound-for-pound.
• Despite excellent punching power, is an extremely patient fighter who prefers to box and wait for opportunities to counter rather than brawl. A boxer-puncher with great technical skills and outstanding punching power so is capable of beating opponents by boxing or brawling.  
• Very intelligent, high-IQ boxer. College graduate who is very mature for his age and is interested in becoming a police officer after his boxing career. 
• Young (only 25 years old), but has good pedigree and decent experience. Comes from a well-known boxing family with a father and two brothers who are trainers and a brother (his current trainer, Robert Garcia) who was former IBF Super Featherweight champion of the world. Robert Garcia is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing, as he's the reigning BWAA Trainer of the Year and has been voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for the past two years.  
• Had a very strong amateur career. Won gold at the 2004 National Junior Golden Gloves championships and has beaten the likes of current undefeated lightweight champion Danny Garcia during amateurs.
• Is now working with strength and conditioning coach Alex Ariza, who's worked extensively with Manny Pacquiao in the past. 

Negatives for Garcia

• Sometimes starts slow in fights while figuring his opponents out.
• Garcia is a relatively untested fighter. Most talented fighter on Garcia's resume is Juan Manuel Lopez, who lost his last 3 title fights (including his most recent fight vs. Garcia) by TKO due to a weak chin. The only other notable fighter on Garcia's resume is Orlando Salido, the current WBO featherweight champion but has 12 losses to his credit. Garcia does not have a lot of experience vs. solid fighters.
• This is Garcia's first fight at super featherweight (130). 
• Due to patience, is not a particularly high-volume fighter, which could work against him vs. an aggressive, high-volume boxer like Martinez.

Positives for Martinez

• Hyper-aggressive, come-forward boxer with very high punch volume. Is 3-0-1 in last 4 title fights primarily on his ability to outwork his opponents. 
• Has an excellent chin. Has never been knocked down or stopped by TKO in his career.
• Has excellent stamina and conditioning. Despite his high pressure style, Martinez rarely tires during the later rounds of fights
• Good pressure fighter who prefers to brawl, but at times has shown ability to box effectively.
• Mentally tough boxer. Displays great heart and determination during all of his fights. High-effort fighter.
• Doesn't have great KO power but has good, solid punching power to keep his opponents honest.
• Older and more experienced fighter than Garcia. Is the current and defending WBO Super Featherweight world champion. Won the WBO Super Featherweight championship previously in 2009 before losing the title and regaining it last year vs. Miguel Beltran.

Negatives for Martinez

• Martinez's defense is very suspect. His aggressive style often leaves him very exposed to counters, which could be disastrous vs. a power puncher like Garcia.
• Despite being a two-time super featherweight champion of the world, his skills are best classified as "2nd-tier," a full level below Garcia's. Garcia clearly has the superior talent, skills, and power in this matchup.
• Often is a slow starter in fights, which he likely can't afford to do vs. Garcia. 
• Martinez's last three fights have been close, split decisions vs. opponents nowhere near the talent or skill of Garcia.

Prefight Summary

The bottom line here is this is a fight between an A-level boxer who may be well on his way to becoming one of the elite boxers in the sport for years to come vs. a B-level boxer who, despite having tremendous heart and determination, is not nearly as skilled or talented.

Martinez fights a highly aggressive style with high punch output - a style which has earned him two super featherweight titles against opponents who were sometimes more skilled or talented than he was. But Martinez has not fought anyone even approaching the level of skill or talent of Garcia. Martinez's style may give him success at times in early rounds (as Garcia is sometimes a slow starter), but Garcia will eventually figure out angles from which to counter with his powerful punches. Martinez has subpar defensive skills, so I'd expect Garcia to gradually overwhelm him with power shots. Martinez has a great chin and has never been knocked down in his career, but he has never fought a fighter with the power of Mikey Garcia. Martinez often doesn't mind taking punches to throw more punches but that will likely be his downfall vs. a puncher with Garcia's power.

In recent fights, Martinez has been able to obtain close, split decisions (in fights he otherwise likely would've lost by a wide margin), with aggression and high punch output. (In each of his last three fights one of the judges scored the fight against him by a wide margin, but Martinez was still able to pull out a win or split-decision draw.) There is a possibility Martinez could outwork Garcia (a very patient boxer who doesn't throw at a high volume), but Garcia is too accurate, skilled, and powerful of a puncher for Martinez to get a decision against, if the fight goes 12 rounds.

Martinez will give a great effort and show the same tremendous heart and determination he shows in all his fights but again, in a fight between an A-level fighter and a B-level fighter, the A-level fighter with the superior power, skills, boxing IQ, and talent will win nearly every time. Martinez doesn't have the defensive ability or boxing skills to avoid Garcia's counter punches and overwhelming power for 12 rounds.

Prediction: Garcia by TKO/KO