Canelo vs. Rocky Fielding: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (50-1-2 34 KOs) vs. Rocky Fielding (27-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 15, 2018
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBA (Regular) World Super middleweight title
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line: Alvarez: -1600, Fielding: +1050 (5 Dimes, 12/14/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #3 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion [Alvarez is not ranked at super middleweight], Fielding: #9 ranked super middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Fielding: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

On American soil, Canelo Alvarez is (by far) the top PPV attraction in boxing today, with his last three fights over the past year and a half - his two most recent vs. Gennady Golovkin and another in May 2017 vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. - each selling over 1 million PPV buys. (Canelo's fights vs. Golovkin and Chavez Jr. had the highest PPV buy rates for boxing matches not involving Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson in 2002.)

But this past October, Canelo (supported by his promoter - the Oscar De La Hoya-backed Golden Boy Promotions) exited the traditional PPV model - which reportedly earned him well over $20 million for each of the aforementioned fights - to sign a 5-year, 11-fight contract worth at least $365 million with sports streaming service DAZN, the largest contract for a single athlete in sports history. Canelo's fight this Saturday vs. WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding will be Canelo's first fight since signing that contract and will be the first PPV-level fight DAZN has ever produced in the United States.

Right now, Canelo is on top of the boxing world. He's arguably the most popular fighter in the sport. He's coming off of the most high profile, biggest fight of the year and what was by far the biggest win of his career in his majority decision upset victory over at-the-time undefeated and Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound-ranked unified middleweight champion Golovkin - a fight in which Canelo secured his status as a Mexican boxing legend and future first ballot hall-of-famer. Although the scoring of the fight was highly controversial - most observers felt the fight was either a draw or that Canelo lost a close decision - Canelo's impressive performance largely cooled previous rampant suspicions of illegal performance-enhancing drug use by the Mexican fighter as he tested clean numerous times in the days and weeks leading up to the fight.

At just 28 years old, Canelo is still in the middle of his prime and has arguably still not yet even reached his peak as - including even both fights vs. Golovkin -  Canelo has improved with each fight since his lone loss in 2013 to Floyd Mayweather Jr. and is still seemingly getting better. Canelo is currently the Ring Magazine #3 ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world but on Saturday night will make his claim as #1 as he moves up to super middleweight to fight at 168 lbs for the first time in his career in an attempt to become the fifth Mexican fighter win a major world title in at least 3 weight divisions (Julio Cesar Chavez Sr., Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Jorge Arce).

Canelo will be making his debut on DAZN this Saturday night at Madison Square Garden vs. current WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding. Rocky is a British fighter who will be making his first defense of his super middleweight title after upsetting formerly undefeated champion Tyron Zeuge by 5th-round TKO in Zeuge's home country of Germany this past July. (Rocky entered the fight vs. Zeuge at as high as a 5-1 underdog.)

Rocky lacks experience, having not fought many top-level boxers other than Callum Smith - who he lost to in 2015 by 1st-round TKO. But since the loss to Smith - the only loss of his career - Rocky has been on a 3-year, 6-fight winning streak which included the title win over Zeuge and a win over well-respected British fighter John Ryder. Rocky, who has fought multiple times in his career as high as light heavyweight (178 lbs), has a 4.5" reach advantage over Canelo and is also expected to come into Saturday night's fight with a considerable size advantage.

Canelo vs. Rocky will be Canelo's first fight in New York City (and on the entire East Coast after several fights in the U.S. in Las Vegas, Texas, and Los Angeles) and will be Rocky's first fight outside of Europe (and only his second fight outside of his home country of England).

It's worth noting that Saturday night's fight is for the WBA "Regular" super middleweight championship. The WBA "Super" super middleweight championship is currently held by Callum Smith (who - as noted above - beat Fielding in 2015 by 1st-round TKO). Smith beat George Groves (by 7th-round KO) this past September in the World Boxing Super Series final to win the "Super" version of the WBA super middleweight championship.

Prefight Analysis

As an overwhelming (1-16) favorite who just two months ago signed the richest contract in the history of sports, it should be no surprise that I'm going with Canelo to win Saturday night's fight (and win convincingly).

But Rocky could make this fight tougher than expected. As a natural super middleweight who's even spent some of his career as a light heavyweight, Rocky will come into this fight with an advantage in size combined with respectable enough power to make things tough for Canelo, particularly in the early rounds. (With a 52% TKO/KO percentage, Rocky has knocked out most of the opponents he's faced - all of whom were bigger than Canelo in terms of size.) Rocky has above average combination punching skills and won't be afraid to trade punches with a smaller Canelo. For a super middleweight, Rocky moves well and has the ability to box while backing up, which should open up counterpunching opportunities when Canelo comes forward. Rocky will also come into Saturday's fight with a significant (4.5") reach advantage which - if combined with effective enough movement - could stymie Canelo's aggression.

Note that this is the 3rd consecutive week where the underdog in a high-profile fight will come into the ring with a size, height (Rocky is listed at 6'1" compared to Canelo at 5'8"), and reach advantage, complimented with an ability to move well. (Jose Pedraza last week vs. Vasyl Lomachenko and Tyson Fury the week before that vs. Deontay Wilder.) These qualities enabled the underdog in each of these fights to go the 12-round distance despite a loss by knockout being regarded as the most likely outcome.

Although limited athletically, Rocky has a versatile skill set and the fact is he did just a few months ago beat a heavily favored, undefeated world champion in that champion's home country to win his first title. Saturday night will be (by far) the biggest fight of Rocky's career and possibly even the most important night of his whole life - there is little question he will come to fight and lay it all on the line. Last year, Canelo looked impressive at a 164.5 lb cachet in winning a wide unanimous decision victory vs. a more talented fighter than Rocky in Chavez Jr. (none of the three judges even gave Chavez Jr. a single round). But Rocky is a bigger, tougher, more aggressive fighter than Chavez Jr. and will almost certainly put forth a greater effort than Chavez Jr. did. It shouldn't be much of a surprise at all if Rocky's size and reach in particular pose a much bigger problem than Canelo - who has fought as small as 140 lbs (super lightweight) early on in his career - ever anticipated.

But at the end of the day, Rocky I think lacks the athleticism and knockout power of elite super middleweights like Callum Smith and Gilberto Ramirez to compete with Canelo over 12 rounds. There's too much of a skill and hand speed discrepancy here - Rocky is the bigger fighter but I see Canelo wearing Rocky down and picking him apart with quick, accurate punch combinations in a similar fashion to how he picked apart Chavez Jr., who was bigger and had a better chin than Rocky. Rocky will throw more punches than Chavez Jr. did, but I only see that making Rocky - who has a habit of keeping his hands down after throwing punch combinations - even more susceptible to clean counterpunching.

Although only 28 years old, Canelo has the advantage of a wealth of experience vs. elite opponents and has fought against just about every style of fighter possible. Rocky is versatile, but is a straightforward,  British domestic-level boxer lacking the elite-level skills of fighters like Erislandy Lara, Mayweather, and Golovkin that have given Canelo problems in previous fights.

Rocky doesn't have anything that Canelo hasn't already seen; his size, reach, and movement could be a challenge for Canelo in the early rounds but his lack of athleticism, speed, and real knockout power should make it not too difficult for Canelo to adjust and figure out the timing of the British champion both offensively and defensively.

I see Canelo being somewhat cautious and patient early vs. a bigger super middleweight, but like him to either stop Rocky in the later rounds or win a wide unanimous decision. While I think a stoppage might be slightly more likely, I think both outcomes have a similar chance of occurring so will be placing an equal stake on each outcome. I will be attending this fight and looking forward to the action and seeing in person how well DAZN does with their first big fight in the United States!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Canelo by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 (.5 unit) 
2) Canelo by unanimous decision (.5 unit) 

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Lomachenko vs. Pedraza: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Vasyl Lomachenko (11-1, 9 KOs) vs. Jose Pedraza (25-1, 12 KOs)
Location: The Theater at Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 8, 2018
Weight class: Lightweight (135 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBO World and WBA Super World lightweight titles
TV: ESPN
Line: Lomachenko: -3700, Pedraza: +2600 (5 Dimes, 12/7/18)
Purse: Lomachenko: $1 million, Pedraza: $350,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Lomachenko: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine lightweight champion, Pedraza: #3 ranked lightweight
Style: Lomachenko: Southpaw, Pedraza: Orthodox
Referee: Harvey Dock

Why you should watch this fight

Despite recent impressive wins by Canelo Alvarez and Oleksandr Usyk that moved them up the pound-for-pound rankings, the two fighters most frequently touted as pound-for-pound the best fighters in the sport of boxing are Vasyl Lomachenko and Terence Crawford. Crawford, an undefeated welterweight who - like Lomachenko is promoted by Bob Arum's Top Rank Boxing promotional company - staked his claim this past October as the top boxer in the sport with an impressive 12th-round TKO victory over a then-undefeated, highly-touted fighter in Jose Benavidez Jr.

Lomachenko - who is currently rated as the #1 fighter in the sport by both Ring Magazine and ESPN - is coming off of one of the better performances of his career this past May with a 10th round TKO victory vs. highly regarded Jorge Linares to win the WBA lightweight title, making him the fastest fighter in the 120+ year history of boxing to win major titles in three weight classes (doing so after only 12 professional fights). Lomachenko is looking to top Crawford's performance this past October Saturday night in a unification title fight vs. WBO lightweight champion Jose Pedraza, a Puerto Rican fighter who should have ample crowd support within the confines of Madison Square Garden in New York City - the city with the largest population of Puerto Ricans in the world.

Pedraza - who represented Puerto Rico as a lightweight at the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing - is a crafty, defensively-solid fighter who moves well on his feet and can fight from either the orthodox or southpaw stance. Pedraza doesn't quite have the technical skills or power of Lomachenko's previous opponent (Linares) but he will enjoy a 5.5" reach advantage coming into Saturday night's fight and is a more natural lightweight than Lomachenko, who will be fighting at lightweight for just the second time in his professional career. Pedraza was stopped nearly two years ago in his final fight as a super featherweight (130 lbs) by a 22-year old Gervonta Davis - in what has been the only loss of his career - but has won three straight unanimous decision since then after moving up to lightweight, including a unanimous decision over Raymundo Beltran in his last fight for the WBO lightweight title.

Lomachenko, a two-time Olympic gold medalist who has arguably had the greatest amateur career in the history of boxing (highlighted by those two Olympic gold medals and a career amateur record of 396-1), is a historically great talent who - after only 12 professional fights - is already a lock for the hall-of-fame. The question now is whether he will continue to live up to the hype as possibly the best fighter in the sport today - and possibly the best fighter of the post-Mayweather era. Lomachenko has won his last eight fights by stoppage; Saturday night's fight vs. a lightweight champion in Pedraza -who has been stopped in the past by a possible future Lomachenko opponent in Gervonta Davis - will be the latest gauge of Lomachenko's greatness.

Prefight Analysis

So this fight doesn't require much extended analysis. Lomachenko is (by far) the heaviest favorite I've done a prediction for (a 1-37 favorite at the time of this writing), so there should be no surprise that I'm taking him to win (and win convincingly).

I mean there's probably at least some value in taking a one-loss champion with very solid, world-class skills in Pedraza at massive 26-1 odds. Pedraza will actually come into tomorrow night's fight with some of the same qualities Tyson Fury possessed in last week's classic heavyweight title fight with Deontay Wilder (which most felt Fury won as an underdog). Like Fury, Pedraza is essentially an ambidextrous boxer who can frustrate any opponent by giving different looks from both the orthodox and southpaw stances. Like Fury, Pedraza is an at times awkward fighter adept at throwing punches from unorthodox angles. Like Fury, Pedraza comes into this fight with a reach advantage (a significant 5.5" reach advantage over Lomachenko in tomorrow night's fight) and moves very well on his feet, which should give Pedraza some ability to elude Lomachenko's attack (as prodigious as his attack may be) from distance. And like Fury, Pedraza is the slightly taller, naturally bigger fighter so might be able to use his size advantage combined with quick hand speed to make the fight physically difficult for Lomachenko on the inside.

Pedraza - as he showed in his most recent fight vs. Beltran and even in the only loss of his career vs. Davis - is a very tough fighter who I think could give Lomachenko problems for a few rounds with his versatility, movement, and ability to throw punches from unpredictable angles (and in this fight potentially throw those punches from distance given his significant reach advantage). It's also essential to point out that tomorrow night's fight will be Lomachenko's first fight after a shoulder surgery in late May to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. (Lomachenko injured the shoulder in the second round of his last fight vs. Linares which affected his performance throughout the rest of the fight.)

But unless Lomachenko suffers another freak injury - as with every fighter Lomachenko has faced since his 2014 loss to Orlando Salido in only his second fight as a pro - the talent gap between Lomachenko and Pedraza will be too much for Pedraza to overcome. Despite his savvy and legitimate world-class skills, the rub with Pedraza is that he doesn't have the punching power or athleticism Linares did in his fight with Lomachenko (which was very competitive) to keep Lomachenko honest and ward off his attack into the middle and late rounds.

I think as the fight progresses, Lomachenko will get to a point where he is able to stalk and apply effective pressure at will, eventually figuring out the timing on the at-times elusive and tricky Puerto Rican for a late stoppage victory. Pedraza is a tough, crafty, two-time world champion who will have some decent crowd support from what should be a decent-sized Puerto Rican contingent at Madison Square Garden tomorrow night. I expect him to eventually try to stand in close and exchange but Lomachenko is too elusive with his footwork on defense and accurate with his punch combinations offensively; he'll frustrate Pedraza and accumulate enough punches to most likely earn a stoppage in the later rounds, though there is a chance the fight goes the distance for a wide Lomachenko decision if Loma can't get the stoppage late.

Pedraza is a nice B+-level fighter and a worthy world champion but will be overmatched by Lomachenko's A+-level footwork and overall skills (as all recent Lomachenko opponents have been). Barring another injury, tomorrow night should be yet another dominant performance by Lomachenko in his quest to go down as one of the all-time greats in this history of the sport.

Prediction: Lomachenko by TKO/KO 

Recommended bet: Lomachenko by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 (.5 unit) 

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Wilder vs. Fury: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Deontay Wilder (40-0, 39 KOs) vs. Tyson Fury (27-0, 19 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: December 1, 2018
Weight class: Heavyweight
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World heavyweight title
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Wilder: -155, Fury: +145 (5 Dimes, 12/1/18)
Purses: Wilder: $4 million, Fury: $3 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Fury: #7 ranked heavyweight
Style: Fury: Orthodox, Wilder: Orthodox
Referee: Jack Reiss

Why you should watch this fight

Wilder vs. Fury is one of the most anticipated fights of the year - an intriguing matchup between two elite heavyweights with a combined record of 67-0 and 58 KOs for the WBC heavyweight title currently held by Wilder. The winner of this fight will be in line for a possible unification superfight with undefeated IBF, WBA, and WBO heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua in 2019 in a fight that may result in the first undisputed heavyweight champion since Lennox Lewis in 2000.

Wilder vs. Fury will be the first heavyweight fight in the U.S. carried as a pay-per-view since Mike Tyson's last fight vs. Kevin McBride in 2005.

Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury have similar gregarious, charismatic personalities but have contrasting boxing styles. Wilder - who is coming off of what might have been the best fight of the year thus far in his thrilling TKO victory over Luis Ortiz this past March - has knocked out every opponent he's faced in his career, relying nearly entirely on the brute, raw knockout power he possesses in both hands (particularly his devastating right hand, which has been the impetus for most of his knockouts). With previously undefeated mega-power punchers Sergei Kovalev and, more recently, Gennady Golovkin suffering losses over the past couple of years, Wilder - with a historically impressive knockout percentage of 98% over 40 career fights - is now widely considered to be the top knockout artist in the sport.

Fury, on the other hand, is perhaps the most all-around skilled boxer in the heavyweight division, having relied much less on power and more on his high boxing IQ and savvy to decisively outbox or stop every opponent he's faced in his boxing career. Despite being 6'9" and over 250 pounds, Fury moves extremely well for his size and is deceptively elusive on defense. Offensively, Fury possesses an awkward style from range (behind an 85" reach) featuring generally accurate punches from often unpredictable angles that perplexes many of his opponents, as well as an ability to box skillfully on the inside.

Whatever advantages Wilder possesses coming into this fight in terms of punching power and athleticism, Fury has comparable advantages in terms of technique and pure boxing skills.

Although Fury has fought twice this year, both fights were "tune-up" fights against inferior, C-level opponents; Fury hasn't fought a meaningful, competitive fight since his unanimous decision victory three years ago (November 2015) vs. Wladimir Klitschko. Since that fight with Klitschko, Fury announced his retirement from boxing and, shortly thereafter, experienced drug, alcohol, and mental health issues. During his retirement, Fury's weight ballooned to over 400 pounds; he's had to lose around 150 pounds over the past year to get back into top-level fighting shape.

Wilder vs. Fury is taking place at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. This will be the first fight promoted by Al Haymon's Premier Boxing Champions series to air on pay-per-view.

Why Deontay Wilder will win

Record of accomplishments: Wilder is the current WBC heavyweight champion, having held the title for nearly four years after a wide unanimous decision victory vs. Bermane Stiverne in January 2015. Wilder is 40-0, with 39 of those wins (98%) coming by knockout; the lone decision of Wilder's career came in the aforementioned unanimous decision victory vs. Stiverne. Wilder scored a 1st round KO victory vs. Stiverne in their rematch last year; with that knockout victory over Stiverne, Wilder has knocked out each of the 39 opponents he's faced in his professional career. A former football player (at the tight end position) in high school, Wilder didn't start boxing until he was 20 years old. But Wilder rose through the ranks quickly, winning the National Golden Gloves and U.S. national amateur heavyweight championships in 2007 - less than two years after he started boxing. The following year, Wilder earned a bronze medal as a heavyweight at the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing. Tonight, Wilder will be making his eighth consecutive title defense of his heavyweight belt.

Advantages in power and athleticism: Wilder has knocked out every opponent he's faced in his career (39 opponents in 40 fights) behind legitimate one-punch knockout power in both hands - especially his right hand which he uses to throw his favorite and most lethal punch, the overhand right. Wilder's punching power is arguably the most effective and sudden game changer in all of professional sports, on multiple occasions turning what were close and competitive fights into knockout victories (see Wilder's last fight vs. Ortiz and his recent fights vs. Gerald Washington and Artur Spilka).

With 19 KO victories in 27 fights (70% wins by TKO/KO), Fury has respectable punching power but doesn't have power comparable to Wilder and has less power than even Wilder's two most recent opponents (Ortiz and Stiverne). Fury's relative lack of sudden power should enable Wilder to take more chances and be more aggressive in certain spots than he was in the Ortiz and Stiverne fights. Fury is undefeated and elusive defensively, but he actually has been knocked down early by a smaller heavyweight with considerably less punching power than Wilder (2nd round of Fury's April 2013 fight vs. Steve Cunningham). If a small heavyweight with a career TKO/KO percentage of 33% who actually fought the majority of his career at cruiserweight (maximum weight of 200 lbs) can knock Fury down, one could surmise that the top knockout artist in the heavyweight division (and perhaps the entire sport of boxing) in Wilder should have a much easier time putting Fury on the canvas.

A former football, basketball, baseball, and track athlete in high school, Wilder is a superior athlete to Fury. Fury is bigger, moves well, and has very good positional footwork for his size but Wilder is the stronger, quicker, and faster fighter. It also doesn't help that Fury comes into this fight with questionable conditioning. An eye test suggests that Fury's gotten himself back in world-class shape but Fury hasn't fought a meaningful, competitive opponent in three years (both of his opponents since coming out of retirement were 16-1 underdog, C-level fighters) and he weighed over 400 lbs as recently as last year. It is more likely than not that Fury's years away from meaningful competition and significant weight fluctuation since his retirement have had more of a negative than positive effect on his boxing abilities.

Aggressive, yet cautious: Wilder has a reputation of being overly aggressive, likely because of his at-times off-balance, wild swinging punches. But he actually more frequently employs a more cautious form of aggression - particularly in the early rounds of fights - behind foot movement and a long (83" reach) jab. As shown in his fight vs. Ortiz and first fight vs. Stiverne, Wilder is more than capable of being patient behind his jab and waiting for a decent opportunity to strike. At least early on, I suspect he'll utilize a similar strategy vs. Fury, staying behind his jab and not allowing the best counter puncher he's faced thus far in his career in Fury catch him out of position. With that said, Fury doesn't have the power of Ortiz or Stiverne and his physical conditioning is still a question, so I do expect Wilder to take more chances and increase his aggression as the fight progresses.

More heart/mentally stronger: Wilder - who will be making his eighth title defense tonight - is a confident, hungry fighter with a strong desire to be remembered down the road as one of the all-time great heavyweights. Compare that mentality with Fury, who retired, briefly un-retired, and then retired again after winning his first heavyweight title in 2015 vs. Klitschko. (Fury did not fight again for 2.5 years after winning the title vs. Klitschko.) Fury was scheduled to fight Klitschko again in a July 2016 rematch, but the rematch was postponed multiple times due to an ankle injury and multiple failed drug tests suffered by Fury. Fury ultimately vacated his title belts and retired from boxing citing mental health, drug, and alcohol issues.

One can surmise from evaluating their paths to Saturday's fight that Wilder is the more mentally stable fighter with superior determination and focus. Wilder showed impressive heart and determination in a fight-of-the-year candidate earlier this year vs. Ortiz, getting outboxed and nearly stopped in the 7th round of that fight before finding a way knock Ortiz down twice to win by stoppage in the 10th round. Three months after Wilder vs. Ortiz, Fury came out of retirement to fight Sefer Seferi, a farcical fight that involved quite a bit of clowning around and smiling by both fighters, and even a kiss on the lips prior to the first bell.

Fury will no doubt take Saturday's fight more seriously, but Wilder definitely strikes me as the more serious, mentally tougher fighter which could go along way towards overcoming Fury's advantages in size and technical skill.

Recent ring activity: Wilder has obviously been much more active than the recently un-retired Fury in recent years, having fought five times since Fury fought Klitschko in 2015 - mostly vs. respectable, top 20 heavyweights. His most recent fight was against a fighter in Ortiz that some rated (and perhaps even still rate) as high as a top 2 or 3 heavyweight in the world.

As mentioned previously, Fury has fought just twice since coming out of retirement this year, both "tune-up" fights vs. no-name, C-level opponents. Fury hasn't fought an elite opponent since defeating Klitschko three years ago and has undergone extensive treatment for substance abuse since then. Ring rust, the effort to overcome substance abuse issues, as well as the effort Fury had to make to lose approximately 150 lbs over the past year to get back into top-level shape might all crash down on Fury coming into the fight vs. Wilder and result in a poorer-than-expected performance later tonight.

Home country advantage: With this fight taking place in Los Angeles, Wilder is fighting 2,000 miles from his hometown of Tuscaloosa, Alabama and 2,800 miles from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York - where he's fought three out of his last five fights and developed a solid East Coast fan base. Although Wilder is headlining a boxing card on the West Coast for the first time in his career, he is fighting in his home country vs. a somewhat controversial, at-times obnoxious fighter from the United Kingdom in Fury. The charismatic, entertaining fighter from Alabama is expected to be a strong crowd favorite - which may influence the action inside the ring and perhaps even influence the judges on the outside.

Wilder has arguably been the beneficiary of favorable scoring in recent fights. Three of Wilder's last five fights - vs. Ortiz, Washington, and Szpilka - somewhat surprisingly had Wilder tied or ahead on the scorecards at the time of stoppage when it could easily be argued he should've been behind on the cards. (I had Wilder behind in the Ortiz and Washington fights at the time of stoppage.)

Why Tyson Fury will win

Record of accomplishments: Fury is a former unified IBF, WBA, and WBO heavyweight champion of the world, having won those titles in 2015 by beating Wladimir Klitschko - who until that point had been on an 11-year, 22-fight winning streak. In winning that fight vs. Klitschko, Fury also became the lineal heavyweight champion, a title Fury still claims today as no one has beaten him since the Klitschko fight.

Like Wilder, Fury is undefeated (27-0) with 19 of those wins coming via TKO/KO. Although he's been knocked down once in his career (in 2013 vs. Cunningham, a fight he would later come back to win in the middle rounds by stoppage) he's never truly been tested in his pro, winning all of his fights either by stoppage or clear unanimous decision. The most impressive win of Fury's career was his wide unanimous decision victory vs. Klitschko, beating the future first ballot hall-of-famer as a 3.5-1 underdog in the Klitschko-friendly confines of Germany, where Klitschko fought most of the fights in his professional career (50 out of 69 fights).

Fury is of Irish Traveller (Gypsy) heritage and comes from a long family line (reported to be 10 generations) of bare-knuckle fighters and traditional boxers.  (Bare-knuckle fighting has long been a popular tradition within Gypsy culture.)

Advantage in skill: In terms of technical skills, Fury is a (far) superior boxer to Wilder. At 6'9", 250+ pounds Fury has excellent dexterity, as well as very good head and foot movement for his size. Fury is perhaps the most versatile heavyweight we've seen in some years - he can box from an orthodox or southpaw stance, from range or from close distance, and coming forward as the aggressor or moving backwards as a counterpuncher. Fury's at-times constant movement makes him hard to hit and allows him to throw punches from unpredictable, awkward angles that are difficult for his opponents to anticipate. His skills are complemented with very respectable (and generally accurate) punching power, as he's won 70% of his fights by TKO/KO.

Even after his extended layoff, Fury is arguably still the most skilled heavyweight in boxing and will be the most skilled boxer Wilder has faced in his career - even more so that Ortiz, who outboxed Wilder for most of their fight before getting stopped late. Fury doesn't have Ortiz's power but is younger, quicker, moves better, is a savvier counter puncher, and is more solid defensively than Ortiz.

In his last title fight, Fury decisively outboxed Klitschko, who was past his prime but hadn't been beaten in 11 years and was known for being one of the most technically skilled heavyweights of this generation. Klitschko went on 1.5 years later in his next fight to knock down and nearly stop UK boxing superstar Anthony Joshua, who is undefeated and widely considered the #1 heavyweight in the world. Fury did not have any of the problems Joshua had with Klitschko, barely getting touched and winning nearly all of the early rounds comfortably before coasting in the later rounds to win a clear decision.

If a less-skilled, still somewhat raw fighter in Wilder can't get to Fury with his power and tonight's fight becomes a pure boxing match, Fury will almost certainly win a wide decision more convincingly than he did vs. Klitschko. Given Wilder's at-times undisciplined, "swinging" power punching motions which sometimes leave him open to clean counters, one also can't discount the possibility that Fury even stops him in the later rounds.

Advantages in size and reach: A key advantage Wilder has enjoyed in pretty much every fight of his career is his 83" reach. Wilder typically sets up his attack behind a jab that is longer than his opponent's, which allows him to mix in knockout power punches from distance without always having to worry about clean counters (since opponents with a shorter reach usually can't attack him as effectively from distance). But, with an 85" reach, Fury might be the first boxer Wilder has faced with a reach advantage over him. Fury beat a highly-skilled Klitschko largely utilizing his reach advantage and movement to elude Klitschko's jab and power attack; he could very easily utilize a similar reach advantage to outbox a fighter in Wilder who doesn't have near the experience or savvy Klitschko did.

Wilder is also still unproven as an inside fighter, actually having struggled from close distance vs. lesser opponents (see stretches of Wilder's fights vs. Washington, Spilka, and Eric Molina). Fury is a skilled inside fighter with sharper instincts and greater accuracy from close range. Do not be surprised if, in some spots,  Fury uses his 40+ pound weight advantage and superior boxing ability on the inside to score points and smother Wilder's punching power.

Prefight Analysis

If I knew with certainty that we'll see the same version of Fury tonight that we saw prior to his retirement in 2016, I'd take Fury to win this fight easily without even thinking about it. I've always rated Fury very highly; in my opinion, a prime Tyson Fury is the most skilled heavyweight since Lennox Lewis, who was the best heavyweight of this generation. I favor the skills of a  prime Fury even over a prime Wladimir Klitschko; a more disciplined, mentally stable Fury I think could've had a better career than the legendary Ukrainian.

Fury is the one fighter at heavyweight who has the reach to neutralize Wilder's jab. Fury also has the skills to elude Wilder's rangy power with his savvy, deceptively quick head movement and footwork. Again, Fury is a guy who - as a significant underdog - easily outboxed one of the all-time great heavyweights in Klitschko in Klitschko's adopted home of Germany. If Wilder can't reach Fury with his power Fury, in my opinion, is a near certainty to outbox a decidedly less-skilled fighter in Wilder, who has actually already been outboxed by many of the better heavyweights he's fought in recent years (Ortiz, Washington, Szpilka).

Beyond his long jab and power right hand, Wilder is somewhat limited in terms of pure skills. If tonight we get a Fury that's anything close to the level of pre-retirement Fury, I think Fury probably wins a wide decision (even wider than his win vs. Klitschko) or even stops Wilder in the late rounds.   
Really, this fight mostly boils down to which version of Fury we see tonight; honestly, this is nearly impossible to predict given Fury's recent 2.5-year layoff from the sport and the mental health, substance abuse, and weight issues he dealt with during his time outside of the ring. I could be (way) wrong but I lean towards the thinking that Fury is making a serious mistake jumping in only a few months after returning from retirement to fight an elite, more athletic heavyweight with historically great punching power like Wilder. I see years of ring rust (discounting Fury's two recent fights vs. C-level opponents, where ring rust was clearly evident), deteriorated conditioning, and Fury's still-questionable mental stability not faring well vs. Wilder's confident determination, superior athleticism, and power - even with Fury's still considerable advantage in skill. 

If Fury had given himself more time to tune-up vs. better competition prior to taking this fight I'd give him a much better chance to win but from what I've seen in his last two fights the ring rust is still there - he's not quite as quick or accurate as he was pre-retirement. I don't think Fury is quite ready yet to fight Wilder (or any of the other elite heavyweights for that matter). 

While I see Wilder being a bit patient early in an effort to establish his jab and gauge Fury from distance, I think by far the most likely outcome of this fight is Wilder by TKO/KO, maybe even in the early to middle rounds. Wilder by TKO/KO - which can currently be found at roughly even money (approximately +100) odds - is the lone bet I'll be taking for this fight. In case Fury is able to find his pre-retirement form and is in better condition than I'm expecting I would strongly consider hedging any potential losses on the Wilder by TKO/KO bet with Fury to win by unanimous decision, which can currently be found at as high as +365 odds (5Dimes).

Both inside and outside the ring I fully expect tonight's fight to be a show!

Prediction: Wilder by TKO/KO

Recommended bet: Wilder by TKO/KO (.5 unit)

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