Gervonta Davis vs. Ryan Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Gervonta Davis (28-0, 26 KOs) vs. Ryan Garcia (23-0, 19 KOs) 

Location:  T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: April 22, 2023
Weight class: Super lightweight (catchweight of 136 lbs)
Major title(s) on the line: None
TV/Stream: Showtim PPV/DAZN PPV
Line (Bovada): Davis: -225, Garcia: +185  (as of 4/21/23)
Purse: Davis: $ million, Garcia: $ million 
Ring Magazine Rankings: Davis: #2 ranked lightweight, Garcia: #3 ranked lightweight
Style: Davis: Southpaw, Garcia: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

In a lot of ways, I see the value in taking Ryan Garcia to win this fight as a 2-1 underdog (or even as high as an 8-1 underdog if betting him to win by decision). At the end of the day, Garcia is a highly-accomplished, undefeated fighter with an inordinate amount of self-confidence. (As boxing fans know, confidence and self-belief goes a long, long way in this sport - perhaps more so than any other sport.) Garcia also happens to be the bigger, faster, and taller fighter, and will enter Saturday's fight with a slight - but still very notable - 2.5" reach advantage. 

Garcia has concussive power with lighting-quick hands that - similar to Manny Pacquiao in his heydey - actually amplify the effect of his power. (Obviously not saying Garcia is as great as the Filipino legend, just comparing the speed and its effect on their punching power.) At only 24 years old, he's even the younger fighter in this matchup... many still look at Gervonta as a very young fighter despite the fact that he's actually fast approaching his 30s (Gervonta turns 29 later this year). 

Saturday's fight is likely the first fight in Gervonta's professional career where he'll face a fighter who has quicker hands, faster reflexes, and a longer reach than he does. Boxing observers might be underestimating - perhaps severely - how difficult it might be for Gervonta to close distance and land punches effectively given Ryan's advantages here. And given Gervonta's propensity for starting slow in fights, he might dig himself into a hole in the early rounds that might be too difficult to come back from if Ryan can manage distance well enough and use his advantages in length and quickness to evade Gervonta's pressure in the mid to late rounds. 

We've already seen several upsets of undefeated, highly-regarded fighters in just the past couple of months (Rey Vargas, Sebastian Fundora, and Joe Joyce perhaps the most notable examples). Garcia defeating Gervonta Davis would certainly be the most high-profile upset of them all, though Garcia is actually considered less of an underdog than any of the fighters who beat the aforementioned Vargas (O'Shaquie Foster at +225), Fundora (Brian Mendoza at +620), or Joyce (Zhilei Zhang at +560) were in the opening betting lines for those fights.  At nearly +200 to win, or even +800 by decision, betting a small amount on Ryan Garcia to win is intriguing and may have some value. 

But I really like Gervonta in this matchup. I think his advantages in all-around skill, ring IQ, and big fight experience will shine through on Saturday night. Over the past several years, including recent fights, Gervonta in my opinion has proven himself to be a more complete, more technically-skilled boxer than Ryan. Now I'd rate Gervonta's reflexes - and arguably even his power - as not quite as good as Ryan's. But Tank does have trigger-quick, concussive power of his own that I think will ultimately prove to be much more effective than Ryan's down the stretch. 

For all the hype and attention surrounding Gervonta's knockout power and aggression, Gervonta is by nature a patient, thinking fighter with vastly underrated ring IQ. In consistency with his cautiously aggressive style, Gervonta will likely place much higher priority than the sometimes reckless Ryan - who's defensive deficiencies (most notably his tendency of fighting in a tall, upright stance with his chin up) are much more glaring - on responsible defense and evading potential fight-ending counters. 

Ryan has in multiple fights also shown a questionable chin - most notably getting knocked down in the 2nd round of his January 2021 TKO victory vs. Luke Campbell. (Luke Campbell was a solid, respected fighter, though was never a fighter known for his punching power.) I suspect Gervonta, on the other hand, may prove to have a granite chin. (The fact that Gervonta has never even come close to getting knocked down or knocked out in his pro career and even the structure and density of Gervonta's larger-than-normal sized head is evidence of this.)

Gervonta is a smart, fundamentally sound fighter who's consistently shown the ability to make adjustments and apply pressure with increasing efficiency as fights get into the middle and later rounds. Gervonta actually throws the fewest punches per round of any CompuBox-tracked fighter but is #1 amongst all CompuBox-tracked fighters in the percentage of times (47.6%) he lands power punches... a testament to his cautiously aggressive -yet highly accurate - style. 

Garcia seems supremely confident heading into Saturday's matchup, but he's still very young and will be headlining a PPV even for the first time in his career. Gervonta is equally confident, but has much more experience on this stage; Saturday's fight will be his 6th consecutive fight as the A-side for a PPV event.

As quick-tempered and emotional as Gervonta sometimes is outside of the ring, he's consistently shown Mayweather-esque poise inside of it, including the ability to block out whatever issues/troubles he might have going on in his personal life. I think Gervonta's poise and patient fighting style will get rewarded when Garcia's defensive deficiencies (upright chin, tendency to drop hands and predictably pull back in a straight line when moving out of the pocket, below average foot positioning, etc.) catch up to him in the mid to late rounds. Both fighters will land power punches - I just see Gervonta being able to handle Garcia's landed punches better due to having a better chin, more responsible defense, and previous experience in tough, big fights. Garcia is also at times reckless and overeager to land his power shots - which I think plays perfectly into the hands of a much more cautious fighter like Gervonta.

The clear play for me here is Gervonta Davis by TKO/KO/DQ at -150 or better (I bet Gervonta by TKO/KO/DQ at -132 odds). With that said - given the advantages I outlined earlier for Garcia - it may also be worth hedging this bet with Ryan Garcia to win by decision at +600 or better given how wide those odds are (though I personally won't be making this bet).

Definitely looking forward to attending this fight! Will likely be the most star-studded boxing event since the final boxing events involving Floyd Mayweather several years ago. The clash of styles, personalities, and even fan demographics here between the two fighters is fascinating so will be very curious to see how this all plays out. Good luck in however you decide to bet!

Prediction: Davis by TKO/KO/DQ

Recommended bet: Davis by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to WIN 1 unit) 

Canelo vs. Bivol: prefight analysis and betting prediction

 Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (57-1-2, 39 KOs) vs. Dmitry Bivol (19-0, 11 KOs) 

Location:  T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 7, 2022
Weight class: Light heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBA Super World light heavyweight title
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (Bovada): Alvarez: -600, Bivol: +375   (5/7/22)
Purse: Alvarez: $15 million, Bivol: $2 million (base salary; Canelo will also earn 70 percent of PPV sales with a reported cap of $40 million, while Bivol will earn 30 percent of PPV sales)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine super middleweight champion, Bivol: #2 ranked light heavyweight 
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Bivol: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

So there's a lot of straightforward reasons to pick Canelo here. For a few years now, he's been considered by many to be the #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the world - a future first ballot hall-of-famer still in the prime of his career with a rare combination of sublime skill, power, and ring IQ. Not to mention one of the best chins and overall defensive abilities in boxing on top of that. As impressive as he's been since his only loss nearly a decade ago to Floyd Mayweather, Canelo is arguably still continuing to improve with each fight as he's moved up in weight. Canelo's confidence also seems to be at an all-time high, as evidenced in his recent stoppages of naturally bigger, more mobile, undefeated champions in Billy Jo Saunders and Caleb Plant who most - myself included - figured would at least be able to last the distance vs. a relatively flat-footed Canelo. 

Canelo certainly also has an advantage in experience, having the best resume of any active fighter in boxing, having fought a who's who of elite fighters (across a wide variety of fighting styles)  in his 60-fight career, and routinely fights on the biggest stage in boxing in front of massive crowds. Tonight he'll be facing a relatively inexperienced opponent in Bivol who has only 19 career fights and whose best win came in 2019 vs. current WBO light heavyweight champion Joe Smith Jr. - a solid but still somewhat raw and undisciplined fighter that very few if any would consider one of the elite fighters in the sport. 

Canelo's versatility and savvy both offensively and defensively might be too much for a relatively straightforward, primarily 1-2 puncher in Bivol who seems to lack true knockout power vs. the best fighters in his weight class, with his last six fights at light heavyweight having gone to decision without Bivol scoring even a single knockdown.   

Even if this fight turns out to be competitive and close, it's difficult to imagine Bivol getting a decision given Canelo's long and notorious track record of getting the benefit of the doubt on judges' scorecards. On Cinco de Mayo weekend, the uber-popular Mexican boxing superstar will almost certainlybe the beneficiary of favorable scoring vs. atherelatively unknown, unheralded Russian fighter - especially given the current anti-Russian social and political climate. Bivol is undefeated and been a champion at 175 lbs for five years but he's a nearly 4-1 underdog for good reasons. There's seemingly too much Bivol might have to overcome - both inside and outside the ring - to upset the A-side of this matchup... who happens to be boxing's #1 cash cow and one of the biggest draws in all of sports.

Albeit for relatively small wagers, I've been (incorrectly) betting against Canelo for some time now. Maybe (or probably) I'm the sucker when it comes to odds against Canelo but I think this is arguably the strongest opportunity to bet against Canelo since his fight vs. Mayweather back in 2013. As quite possibly the best light heavyweight boxer in the world, Bivol is being severely underrated in this matchup. Yes, he's inexperienced at the elite level, but he's undefeated in his career and made fights vs. very solid opponents such as Joe Smith, Isaac Chilemba, Jean Pascal, and Sullivan Barrera look easy, with multiple judges in each of those fights either scoring the fight a shutout or giving Bivol's opponent only one round for the entire fight. While Bivol's last six fights have gone to decision, he stopped 11 out of the first 13 opponents he faced in his career, which is evidence that Canelo will have to respect his power somewhat.    

As great as Canelo is - I think there's a chance he might be biting off more than he can chew at 175 lbs. Canelo has fought only one other time at light heavyweight, in November 2019 when he fought a washed, past-prime Sergei Kovalev in a fight that was very competitive until Canelo scored an 11th round KO stoppage. (I had Kovalev up two points at the time of stoppage; one of the official judges had it a draw.) Bivol, unlike Kovalev was when he fought Canelo, is still in his prime, undefeated, adept at boxing on his feet, and I think overall will have much more success fighting from distance behind his power jab than Kovalev, Saunders, and Plant did to varying extends when they fought Canelo.   

Like Canelo, Bivol is an elitely-skilled, highly efficient puncher who is also defensively responsible and excellent at managing distance. Per CompuBox, Bivol is second only to long-time Canelo rival Gennady Golovkin in total number of jabs landed per round amongst all active boxers. (Golovkin's jab was effective vs. Canelo in both fights he had against the Mexican superstar; I think a bigger, more mobile Bivol can be comparably effective with his jab even if the jab doesn't have as much power behind it as Golovkin's.) Per CompuBox, Bivol is also second (to current WBO middlewight champion Demetrius Andrade) amongst all active boxers in total number of punches landed on him per rounds, which is in large part a testament to how well Bivol manages distance behind his jab. Overall, Bivol leads all active boxers - including pound-for-pound level fighters like Canelo, Shakur Stevenson, and Vasiliy Lomachenko - in  CompuBox plus/minus rating, a statistic frequently used to assess how dominant a fighter has been over his opposition. (Plus/minus rating is calculated as the difference in connect percentage between a fighter and his opponent and was a statistic Mayweather was notorious for consistently being the highest rated boxer for when he was active.)

If Bivol can effectively shut out bigger, stronger fighters who had reach advantage like Joe Smith behind his jab, I think we can expect him to be similarly effective in large stretches of the fight vs. a smaller fighter in Canelo vs. whom he has a slight 1.5" reach advantage.  

All things considered,  especially when considering his edge in experience, skill, and punching power - not to mention a favorable Cinco de Mayo environment where you can almost expect the judges to score this fight favorable for him - I do think Canelo probably wins this fight. But at 7-1, I like Bivol by decision as far and away the best value for this fight. For similar reasons, I also think a draw (20-1) is good value and think, no matter who wins, the fight is highly likely to go the distance (-200) given the elite defensive abilities of both fighters, neither of whom have ever even been knocked down in their career.  

I'll be at the fight and definitely looking forward to this matchup. I think it'll be a better fight than most are thinking and we might be in for a big upset!!!

Prediction: Canelo by decision

Recommended bets: 1) Fight to go the distance (bet to WIN .5 unit) 

2) Bivol to win by decision (bet to RISK .33 unit)

 3) Fight to end in a draw (bet to RISK .25 unit)

Joshua vs. Usyk: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Anthony Joshua (24-1, 22 KOs) vs. Oleksandr Usyk (18-0, 13 KOs)

Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United Kingdom
Date: September 25, 2021
Weight class: Heavyweight 
Major title(s) on the line: WBA Super, IBF, and WBO Heavyweight titles
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (Bovada): Joshua: -285, Usyk: +210  (9/23/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Joshua: #1 ranked heavyweight, Usyk: #4 ranked pound-for-pound, #10 ranked heavyweight
Style: Joshua: Orthodox, Usyk: Southpaw

Why you should watch this fight

Anthony Joshua vs. Oleksandr Usyk will be the first major PPV fight of the fall in what is shaping up to be a pretty loaded final quarter of the 2021 boxing season (scheduled major championship fights include Tyson Fury vs. Deontay Wilder III, Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant, Teofimo Lopez vs. George Kambosos Jr., Jamel Herring vs. Shakur Stevenson, and Josh Taylor vs. Jack Catterall). 

Joshua vs. Usyk is one of the better matchups that could've been made in boxing and is arguably the best heavyweight matchup we'll have this year. In Joshua, you have a unified heavyweight champion and former gold medalist who's right up there with Mexican superstar Canelo Alvarez as the biggest draw in boxing. (While Canelo is a bigger draw in the United States and North America, Joshua might be a bigger draw in terms of worldwide support.) But this weekend, Joshua will face undefeated Ukrainian star Olexsandr Usyk, a former gold medalist himself who, after only 18 professional fights, is already considered one of the great cruiserweights in boxing history, having reigned as undisputed cruiserweight champion from July 2018 until March 2019 when he vacated his titles to move up to heavyweight. Usyk was the third cruiserweight in boxing history (Evander Holyfield, O'Neil Bell) to become undisputed champion in that weight class and the first cruiserweight in history to hold four major belts at once; for his efforts, Usyk was named 2018 Fighter of the Year by all the major boxing outlets.

Saturday's fight is a classic matchup between a big power puncher in Joshua with 22 knockouts in 25 career fights (88% KO percentage, with Joseph Parker being the only boxer Joshua's faced that he's never knocked down or stopped) and a slick, crafty master boxer in Usyk. In Usyk, Joshua is in with (perhaps by far) the most skilled fighter he's faced in his career, a fighter who also happens to be rated the #4 boxer in the world pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine. (Usyk will actually be the first pound-for-pound ranked boxer Joshua has fought in his career.)   

If Joshua beats the undefeated, pound-for-pound #4-ranked Usyk, it would possibly become the best win on his resume; beating an undefeated, pound-for-pound rated fighter like Usyk would also create a strong argument that Joshua himself deserves pound-for-pound ranking consideration. A win would also set Joshua up as the A-side in a potential mega-fight in 2022 with the winner of next month's Fury vs. Wilder matchup. 

If Usyk wins, he will be the unified heavyweight champion of the world and almost certainly (if he hasn't already)have stamped his ticket into the boxing hall-of-fame after only 19 professional fights. A win would potentially put Usyk in line for the winner of Fury vs. Wilder, where he can attempt to become the 1st boxer since Evander Holyfield (and 2nd overall in boxing history) to have been the undisputed champion at both cruiserweight and heavyweight during his career.

Prefight analysis

Despite being undersized at heavyweight, Usyk is more than a live dog in this matchup. Usyk is almost certainly the best boxer Joshua will have faced to date - an unbeaten, pound-for-pound ranked, likely future hall-of-famer with superior ring IQ, skills, footwork, and hand speed compared to the relatively basic, often flat-footed, and stiff Joshua. 

Usyk isn't just a great boxer, he's potentially an all-time great boxer given what he's already accomplished thus far in his career. Typically a slow starter, Usyk is known for upping his punch rate and coming on in the mid/late rounds of fights; that combined with his elite footwork and ability to box well on the move should be at least somewhat effective in tiring Joshua, who is known for having stamina issues after the early rounds.

Usyk is a disciplined, composed fighter who I think could seize the moment in the biggest fight of his career and apply effective, fight-changing pressure on a fighter in Joshua who we've seen get tense and stiffen up in the middle rounds of not only his loss to Andy Ruiz in June of 2019, but also his stoppage victory vs. Vladimir Klitschko where he was knocked down and nearly stopped in the middle rounds. The longer this fight goes, the more the fight becomes dependent on ring IQ and skill advantage; in my opinion Usyk is decisively superior in both areas, which gives him a very real shot at an upset this weekend.

With all that said, I think Joshua's advantages in size, reach, and punching power will be too much for the recently converted cruiserweight to overcome in this matchup. While immensely talented and skilled, Usyk doesn't have heavyweight size or punching power, and I think also won't have the punch activity at heavyweight to be consistently effective vs. Joshua. Joshua not only has the size and power, he'll also enter the ring with a notable 4" reach advantage, which he'll be able to use to work behind his highly effective power jab all night, as he did in his unanimous decision rematch victory vs. Ruiz in December of 2019. Usyk is certainly elusive enough to evade Joshua's attack in most spots, but - as an undersized opponent - he'll likely have to be cautious and respect Joshua's power for all 12 rounds. Note that Usyk even had difficulty at times in his most recent fight with the size and power of heavyweight contender Derek Chisora, who is not as big and - with a career 53% KO percentage - doesn't have nearly the punching power of Joshua. (Usyk beat Chisora by unanimous decision but only won by two points on 2 out of 3 judges' scorecards.)

Joshua doesn't move as well as Usyk, but is mobile enough to box at a safe distance from Usyk's attack given his reach advantage. Despite Joshua's questionable chin, Usyk likely doesn't have the punching power at heavyweight to give Joshua problems, even if he is able to close the distance. 

Usyk's punch activity has noticeably declined in the two fights he's had since moving up to heavyweight; given that he'll likely have to be even more cautious than he's been in his two previous fights facing a power puncher like Joshua, I highly doubt we'll see as many punches out of Usyk on Saturday that we became accustomed to seeing during his quick ascent to the top of the cruiserweight division. (Trading punches with Joshua I think will be a quick recipe for Usyk getting stopped and I suspect Usyk is aware of that.) 

While Usyk is experienced, having consistently fought tough competition throughout his short but accomplished 18-fight career, Saturday's fight will be just his 3rd fight at heavyweight. Despite clearly winning both of his previous fights at heavyweight, Usyk didn't look terribly impressive in either fight as the size of both of his previous heavyweight opponents (Chazz Witherspoon, who fought Usyk on only 4 days notice after the previously scheduled opponent failed a drug test, and Chisora, who is arguably not even a top 10 heavyweight), seemed to stymie some of Usyk's punch activity and overall effective aggression in spots. 

Another hugely significant obstacle for Usyk is the fact that the fight is taking in Joshua's home country (United Kingdom), and in an area of London not too far from the town where Joshua was born and raised. As arguably the single biggest draw in boxing, Joshua is obviously the A-side in this promotion, and just within the past couple of days signed a lifetime contract with famed boxing promoter Eddie Hearn and his Matchroom Sport promotions company. Saturday's fight will take place in a 60,000+ capacity soccer stadium in London, where at least 90% of the fans in attendance will be raucously supporting Joshua. Given the boxing politics typically involved in protecting boxers that generate enormous sums of revenue and the home crowd advantage that Joshua will enjoy, it's tough to envision a case where any reasonably close fight here will be scored for Usyk. Usyk would likely have to completely dominate the fight over several rounds or knock Joshua out to get the victoy - which seems unlikely given the size discrepancy and Usyk's lack of knockout power. 

But I do think Usyk, who I anticipate will be more cautious than usual in this matchup, possesses the footwork and savvy to last 12 rounds vs. Joshua. So I see Joshua by decision as the best bet, though I wouldn't be surprised if Joshua's power proves to be a bit too much for Usyk, with Joshua possibly getting the stoppage in the later rounds.

But very much looking forward to this fight - I've got to get out to one of these big fights in the UK someday!!!

Prediction: Joshua to win

Recommended bet: Joshua by decision (RISK .5 unit)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Canelo vs. Saunders: prefight analysis and betting prediction

 Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (55-1-2 37 KOs) vs. Billy Jo Saunders (30-0, 14 KOs)

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Date: May 8, 2021
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World, WBA World, and WBO World Super Middleweight titles
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (BetAnySports): Alvarez: -725, Saunders: +550  (5/7/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine super middleweight champion, Saunders: #4 ranked super middleweight
Style: Alvaraez: Orthodox, Saunders: Southpaw

Why you should watch this fight

Canelo vs. Billie Joe Saunders will be the biggest fight of the year to date in front of what is widely anticipated to be a full-capacity crowd of well over 60,000 at AT&T Stadium in the Dallas, TX area - a crowd that would be the largest in the United States to attend a sporting event since COVID-mandated capacity limitations on crowds began in early 2020. Canelo vs Saunders is the biggest boxing event currently on the boxing calendar; at over 60,000 tickets already sold, the fight has already amassed sales that exceed the previous record for a Canelo boxing event - 51,420 for Canelo's 2016 WBO junior middleweight title fight vs. then undefeated UK champion Liam Smith.   

 
Canelo - considered by many to be the #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport and biggest boxing star on the planet - is looking to unify his WBC and WBA super middleweight titles vs. undefeated WBO super middleweight champion Billie Joe Saunders in what could be his toughest fight since his rematch with then #1 pound-for-pound and undefeated Gennady Golovkin in 2018. Saunders is a slick, elusive southpaw who, while oft-criticized for fighting down to his level of opponents, could give the heavy betting favorite Canelo one of the toughest matchups of his certain future first ballot hall-of-fame career. As a junior middleweight (154 lbs), Canelo had trouble with other elite, mobile southpaws with a stiff jab - then undefeated WBA super middleweight champion Austin Trout in 2013 and Erislandy Lara in 2014 in fights many thought Trout and Lara won. Saunders provides Canelo's first test vs. a mobile, defensively responsible southpaw since those fights. vs. Trout and Lara (and provides that test as a bigger man two weight classes higher than those previous fights at 154 lbs).  

Saunders comes into Saturday night's fight as the betting underdog for the first time in his career in what will be by far the biggest fight of his career. Will he rise to the occasion (as he's actually been prone to do when facing his toughest opponents) or will we see yet another flat performance (as we've actually seen more often than not vs. even B- and C-level opponents)?

The winner of Saturday night's fight will be the unified WBC, WBA, and WBO super middleweight champion of the world and is set up nicely to challenge undefeated IBF super middleweight champion Caleb Plant later this year to become the first undisputed super middleweight champion in boxing history and first undisputed boxing champion at any weight since Terence Crawford became undisputed light welterweight (140 lbs) champion back in 2017. 

Prefight Analysis

Seems like nearly all the signs in this matchup point to an easy victory for Canelo. 

Still firmly in the prime of his career, Canelo is brimming with confidence as the #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the world, while Saunders is looking to finally attain the respect that's seemingly eluded him his entire career of being one of the elite boxers in the world. 

Amazingly, Canelo seems even now to still be improving after each and every fight, while Saunders has slid by with lackluster performances in the majority of his recent fights.  

Outside of future first ballot hall-of-famer and all-time great Manny Pacquiao, Canelo has the most impressive resume of any active boxer; Saunders' resume, on the other hand, is littered with domestic British-level contenders and other B- and C-level fighters. (Saunders arguably doesn't have a single A-level fighter on his resume.)

Canelo is the "A" side of this matchup, perhaps the biggest draw in the sport (and biggest draw of the post-Mayweather/Pacquiao generation) - a wildly popular fighter with a fan-friendly style facing a relatively unpopular fighter in Saunders notorious for controversial, distasteful behavior outside the ring and uninspired, snoozer performances inside.

Canelo will be fighting in front of a full-capacity crowd in Dallas, Texas where the overwhelming majority of the crowd will be there to root him on. Texas also happens to be a state notorious for partial scorecards in favor of the "A" side fighter. (Though Canelo has seemingly been the beneficiary of favorable judging regardless of fight location.) 

And of course, Canelo just appears to be the more skilled, experienced, dedicated fighter in this matchup with a huge advantage in punching power. Canelo is expected by most boxing pundits to win this fight and I think he probably does get the win.  

But, as a +550 underdog  (translating to being given by oddsmakers just a 15.4% chance to win this fight), I see a little bit of value in taking Saunders to win. Although Saunders' resume is a bit lacking, he is an undefeated, two-division world champion with elite skills (particularly on the defensive end), great foot and upper body movement, and a consistently effective jab. As much as Canelo has improved in recent years, he hasn't fought a slick, elusive southpaw who can move and jab like Saunders since his close (and for some controversial) decision losses to Lara and Trout several years ago. 

Canelo will always be a somewhat flat-footed fighter, which I think Saunders has the skill to exploit for large stretches of Saturday's fight with constant, responsible movement and timely counterpunching from his southpaw stance.

Note that, while he was certainly in trouble in multiple spots late in the fight, Saunders' countryman Callum Smith was able to last the distance just a few months ago in a unanimous decision loss to Canelo. Saunders doesn't have the size or punching power of Smith, but he is much better defensively - including being much more elusive and trickier than the often predictable and straightforward Smith.

Even with his fast hand speed and elite counterpunching ability, I think the slower-footed Canelo will have trouble - particularly in the early rounds of the fight - finding and adjusting to Saunders' movement and overall deceptive, awkward style. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Saunders outbox Canelo in several rounds and fully expect Saunders - who's never been knocked out or even knocked down in his professional career - to last the full 12 rounds vs. a relatively low-volume, plodding counterpuncher in Canelo. Yes, Canelo's counterpunching is timely, accurate, and packed with power that could stop Saunders at any point in the fight. But I think Saunders is the best defensive fighter Canelo has fought since his split decision victory vs. Lara and think Saunders will be mostly successful eluding Canelo's power and the traps he often sets for his opponents.   


In any case, this will be the first fight (and sporting event overall) that I've attended since the pandemic began over a year ago so definitely looking forward to it!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Fight to go the distance (bet to WIN .65 unit      

2) Saunders to win (bet to RISK .15 unit)

Garcia vs. Campbell: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Ryan Garcia (20-0, 17 KOs) vs. Luke Campbell (20-3, 16 KOs)

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Date: January 2, 2021
Weight class: Lightweight
Major title(s) on the line: None
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (BetAnySports): Garcia: -440, Campbell: +350  (1/2/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #5-ranked lightweight, Campbell: #4-ranked lightweight
Style: Garcia: Southpaw, Campbell: Southpaw

Prefight Analysis

So, I fully expect Ryan Garcia - probably the most popular boxing sensation we've seen under the age of 25 since a young Oscar De La Hoya in the mid/late 1990's - to win Saturday's fight vs. Luke Campbell, most likely by stoppage. At just 22 years old he's inexperienced and still a bit raw, but the signs are there that this is a future superstar in the making. Garcia's combination of fast-twitch hand speed and one-punch KO power (power that rates pound-for-pound with the very best in the sport) is rare, as evidenced by his last three fights ending inside 2 rounds - including his most recent fight vs. Francisco Fonseca (1st round KO), a fighter who it took current undefeated WBA (regular) lightweight title holder Gervonta Davis 8 rounds to stop back in 2017, when Davis was Ryan's current age (in what was widely considered a disappointing performance from Davis).   

Campbell is a world-class, battle-tested fighter with a highly impressive amateur pedigree (which includes a 2012 Olympic gold medal), and has the footwork and discipline defensively to frustrate the inexperienced Garcia and prevent him from getting the early stoppage he's been accustomed to in recent fights. Despite this, Garcia's (wide) advantage in hand speed and comparable reach relative to Campbell should allow him to be reasonably effective in landing a good portion of his patented left hooks and straight right hands over the course of the fight. The concussive power that complements Garcia's quick hands might be an insurmountable obstacle for a somewhat chinny Campbell who, while durable (having never been stopped in his professional career), has been knocked down four times in his last 11 fights - all at the hands of fighters with considerably less punching power than Garcia. 

Garcia is a young, supremely confident boxer who has shown vast improvements in recent fights, having knocked out all four fighters he's faced inside of 5 rounds since switching trainers two years ago from his father to reigning BWAA trainer of the year - and current trainer of Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #1 Canelo Alvarez  - Eddy Reynoso. He's an undefeated Mexican-American fighter with one of the highest KO percentages amongst world title contenders in the sport (85%). And - given his talent combined with his considerable social media following - Garcia is considered by many far and away the fighter out of the current stable of young American boxing stars (a stable which includes current lightweight world title-holders Gervonta Davis, Teofimo Lopez, and Devin Haney) most likely to follow Oscar De La Hoya and Floyd Mayweather to become the next American boxing superstar.

Consider that, with over 12.5 million followers over the primary social media platforms (Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, TikTok - more followers than even Canelo and 2nd in number of followers only to current unified heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua amongst active boxers in the world), Garcia will likely be the promotional A-side for every fight he's involved in for years to come (at least until he loses). In this sort of spot - especially in the Mexican-American friendly confines of the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, where Garcia will undoubtedly be the overwhelming crowd favorite - the A-side usually gets the nod in close fights that could go either way. Garcia is backed financially by boxing powerhouses Golden Boy Promotions and DAZN to be the next generational superstar in boxing - one would suspect that it would take a clearly superior performance from Campbell to overcome the promotional and hostile crowd biases he'll face outside the ring. 

But the odds on this fight at U.S. sportsbooks are currently as high as 3.5-1 (implying that Campbell wins this matchup between 20-25% of the time), which I think is a bit absurd - even with Ryan's undeniable talent inside the ring and aforementioned intangible advantages (promotional A-side, crowd favorite) on the outside. Campbell is a world-class, proven fighter with experience who will by far be the most difficult test of Garcia's career to date. Campbell does have three losses, though two of those losses (to highly regarded then-WBA lightweight champion Jorge Linares in 2017 and French contender Yvan Mendy back in 2015) were very close, split-decision losses - with the loss to Mendy being avenged by Campbell in 2018 via unanimous decision victory. Campbell's only other loss was in 2019 to then pound-for-pound #1 Vasiliy Lomachenko in a fight where Campbell frustrated Lomachenko and gave him one of the tougher fights of his career even in what was a fairly wide unanimous decision loss. In the loss, Campbell buckled Lomachenko a couple of times, including a left hook to the body in the 7th round that forced Lomachenko to hold to regain his composure.

If Campbell could go 12 rounds and land solid power shots vs. a supremely talented, elusive Lomachenko, there's no reason to think he couldn't be more effective vs. a less experienced Garcia who isn't nearly as defensively sound or slippery as Lomachenko. At 5'10", Garcia is a relatively tall fighter for his weight class who often fights in an upright stance (often leaving both his body and chin exposed). I anticipate Garcia's boxing stance, combined with his relatively flat-footed style, providing ample scoring opportunities for a fighter in Campbell who - with a career KO percentage of 70% - has underrated punching power in his own right. 

Campbell matches up with Garcia better than any fighter Garcia's fought previously in terms of size and reach, and is the more experienced, technically sound boxer. As Campbell showed in his fights with Lomachenko and Linares, he has the footwork and durability to go the distance with even immensely talented, A-level fighters; I feel Campbell will be able to frustrate Garcia early with this footwork and durability and begin to land serious power shots of his own in the middle to late rounds. 

Garcia's lack of experience vs. top-level competition is by far the biggest question mark in this fight. He's fought only 4 rounds in the past two years (all vs. B and C-level opponents); the last time he actually went the distance was a majority 10-round decision victory in 2018 vs. Mexican journeyman Carlos Morales in a fight where Ryan was hurt late in the 7th round and that many thought he lost.  

While I like Garcia's talent and potential - the unknowns of how a still-raw 22-year old kid will perform vs. a legitimate top-level, battle-tested contender who has won Olympic gold and has been competitive vs. pound-for-pound A-level talent makes me feel the current +350 odds (or anything +300 and above for that matter) for Campbell is a price too good to pass up. Again, I do think Garcia probably wins this fight (and likely wins the fight by stoppage given the hand speed and power discrepancy vs. a fighter in Campbell who doesn't have the best chin). But the better value in my mind lies with the much more experienced, battle-tested fighter who also happens to have good power in a matchup vs. a young guy whose chin has never been tested at this level.

Either way, this fight should reveal a lot about where Garcia stands as a title contender and potential future superstar in the sport. Will Garcia shine like a then similarly inexperienced and untested Gervonta Davis did four years ago as a 22-year old when he stopped an undefeated Jose Pedraza for his first world title? Or will Saturday's fight prove Garcia isn't quite ready for the world-class stage yet (or even provide evidence that he'll never be ready)? As recently as last year, Garcia's promoters at Golden Boy were hesitant to put him in vs. top-level competition so tonight's fight should answer a lot of questions!

Prediction: Campbell to win

Recommended bet: Campbell to win (bet to RISK .33 unit)

Canelo vs. Jacobs: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (51-1-2 35 KOs) vs. Daniel Jacobs (35-2, 29 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 4, 2019
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World middleweight, WBA Super World middleweight, and IBF World middleweight titles
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line: Alvarez: -430, Jacobs: +380 (5 Dimes, 5/2/19)
Purse: Alvarez: $35 million, Jacobs: $2.5 million (though will be guaranteed over $10 million for this fight per terms of his contract with DAZN)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #3 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Jacobs: #2 ranked middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Jacobs: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Why you should watch this fight

In mid-October of last year, Canelo Alvarez signed what at the time was the largest contract for a single athlete in sports history - a 5-year, 11-fight deal worth at least $365 million with sports streaming service DAZN. A few months later, Gennady Golovkin - winless after two (very) controversial decisions vs. Canelo that knocked him from the top of many pound-for-pound rankings - followed suit in signing a lucrative deal of his own, also with DAZN (3-year, 6-fight deal reportedly worth at least $100 million).

Given the two signings (combined worth nearly half a billion dollars), all signs point to a third fight between Golovkin and Canelo either this September or in May 2020 at the latest, a fight which might cap what will likely go down as one of the great trilogies in the history of boxing. But before the much-anticipated third fight, Canelo must first get through what will likely be a tough, competitive unification fight with IBF middleweight champion Danny Jacobs.

Since Floyd Mayweather Jr.'s retirement, Canelo has been (by far) boxing's biggest PPV attraction and is considered by many to be the most popular fighter in the sport. (With the emergence of sports streaming services like DAZN and ESPN+, Canelo might even go down in history as boxing's last true PPV star.) At just 28 years old, Canelo is still in the middle of his prime and coming off of two big wins in 2018  - a 3rd-round knockout of Rocky Fielding this past December that earned Canelo the WBA super middleweight title (the third division in which he's won a major title) and the biggest win of his career last September vs. then-undefeated, #1 pound-for-pound ranked Golovkin.

This Saturday, Canelo will face Jacobs in just the 2nd fight of his 11-fight contract with DAZN. On the surface, the fight with Jacobs is just an interim fight for Canelo warming him up for the inevitable 3rd mega-fight with Golovkin. But Jacobs is an outstanding, A-level boxer with elite punching power (78% KO ratio, which includes - with the exception of his loss to Golovkin - either a knockdown or knockout in each of his 16 fights over the past 8.5 years) who is poised to give Canelo fits with his size and reach advantage, superior speed and athleticism, and ability to box on the move. Jacobs is also a composed but determined, high IQ fighter who fought a very competitive fight with Golovkin in 2017. (I was at this fight and actually scored it 114-113 for Jacobs despite betting on Golovkin to win by TKO/KO.) Jacobs' close, unanimous decision loss to Golovkin actually ended Golovkin's 9-year, 23-fight KO streak.

The winner of Saturday's fight will be the unified WBC, WBA, and IBF middleweight champion and is likely headed for a mega-fight rematch with Golovkin next. Assuming the winner of Canelo vs. Jacobs does fight Golovkin next, what looms after the fight with Golovkin is a unification fight vs. WBO middleweight champion (and fellow DAZN-signed fighter) Demetrius Andrade for the undisputed middleweight championship. Whoever earns that undisputed middleweight championship will be the 1st undisputed middleweight champion since Jermain Taylor in 2006.

Saturday night will be Canelo's record 5th time fighting at T-Mobile Arena since the venue opened in 2016 and 12th time overall fighting in Las Vegas. (Saturday night will be Jacob's 1st time fighting at T-Mobile and 1st time fighting in Las Vegas since 2010.)

Prefight Analysis

There's a lot to like about Daniel Jacobs in this matchup. Besides having excellent power at middleweight (to the extent that Golovkin - who has never been knocked down or knocked out as an amateur or pro - had to respect Jacobs' power, staying cautious throughout large stretches of the fight), Jacobs is the naturally bigger, more mobile fighter with a 2.5" reach advantage. Canelo has struggled in the past vs. rangier fighters who move well (Mayweather, Erislandy Lara, Austin Trout); Jacobs certainly fits this description and is in many ways a bigger, stronger, more skilled version of a prime Austin Trout, who fought a close, competitive fight vs. Canelo in 2013 (that some observers felt he won - I scored that fight 114-113 for Canelo).

As he did with Golovkin, Jacobs should be able to at least in spots frustrate Canelo with movement behind a long jab; if anything Jacobs should have more success moving behind his jab vs. Canelo than he did vs. Golovkin given that Canelo is a bit more flat-footed, doesn't cut off the ring quite as well, and isn't quite the threat in terms of volume and punching power that Golovkin is.

At as high as a 4-1 (+400) underdog, I think Jacobs is being underrated in this matchup. Jacobs is an A minus/A-level fighter who has only lost twice in his career - his close, competitive loss to Golovkin in 2017 (again a fight which I actually edged to Jacobs despite betting on and rooting for Golovkin to win) and his 2010 5th-round TKO loss to Dmitry Pirog, a fight in which Jacobs was leading 3-1 on all three judges' scorecards at the time of stoppage. (Note that Pirog was a very highly regarded, undefeated prospect that many felt had the same level of talent as Golovkin coming up. Despite winning the vacant WBO middleweight title vs. Jacobs and successfully defending it for nearly two years, Pirog was forced to retire right before a scheduled fight with Golovkin because of a debilitating back injury suffered during training.) Jacobs is also a fighter who has either knocked down or knocked out each of his last 16 opponents over the course of the past 8.5 years years (with the exception of Golovkin). This list of opponents includes slick, elusive fighters who had never previously been stopped in their careers. In my opinion, Jacobs actually performed slightly better in his 2017 matchup with Golovkin than Canelo did in either of his two matchups with the Kazakh fighter - sticking behind his long jab and wearing Golovkin down in the later rounds with constant movement and timely punching.

Jacobs also comes across as a man of exceptional character and strong sense of determination - as evidenced inside the ring by how he performed after he got knocked down in the 4th round of his fight with Golovkin and outside the ring by how he overcame a rare form of bone cancer where Jacobs was told by doctors he would never box again and might not ever walk again. Any man who has overcome what Jacobs has overcome in life won't be intimidated by Canelo or the prospect of fighting what will be by far the biggest fight of his career in front of a hostile, Canelo-friendly crowd. I expect Jacobs to put up a solid performance vs. Canelo, frustrating a smaller, less athletic, relatively flat-footed Canelo with length and constant movement, which I think may re-introduce the stamina issues Canelo has had in several fights in his career, including his 1st fight with Golovkin.

With all this said, I do think Canelo probably wins this fight. I see Canelo as (perhaps by far) the more skilled, accurate power puncher, particularly when executing his body attack. Jacobs has good movement but I think Canelo will be able to counterpunch effectively in spots where Jacobs is throwing his own power punches within range. Jacobs may win the jab battle from distance but I see Canelo getting the better of close-range exchanges, which typically make more of an impression on the judges in terms of scoring. Note that Maciej Sulecki who, like Canelo, is an effective combination puncher with fast hands, had success landing power punches in many stretches of his fight last year with Jacobs - a fight that was close and competitive until Jacobs knocked Sulecki down in the 12th round. Canelo is in many ways a (much) more skilled, heavier-handed version of Sulecki; it is likely with his superior skills and accuracy that he will have more success landing power punches on Jacobs than even Sulecki did.

Scoring seems to play a controversial (and often pivotal) role in most of Canelo's big fights. At this point you have to think that there's a good chance that this will again be the case Saturday night, especially given that the three judges for the fight (Dave Moretti, Glenn Feldman, and Steve Weisfeld) will be the same three judges that controversially scored Canelo's 2nd fight with Golovkin in favor of Canelo. (Canelo's 2nd fight with Golovkin was a very close fight that most felt Golovkin edged.) Canelo is the biggest draw in in the sport and - from a boxing politics standpoint - is certainly the favored, more heavily promoted fighter in this matchup. Canelo is only the second fight into one of the largest contracts for an individual athlete in the history of pro sports; a loss for Canelo here could (at least from a monetary standpoint) be semi-devastating for DAZN and the sport of boxing as a whole. Canelo has gotten (very) favorable scoring in every big fight of his career (most notably including one judge scoring his 2013 fight with Mayweather - a fight most felt Mayweather clearly dominated - a draw and another judge scoring 10 out of 12 rounds of his 1st fight with Golovkin in his favor - a score which even Canelo and his promoter Oscar De La Hoya disagreed with). I feel there is a good chance biased scoring could come into play yet again Saturday night in what will likely be a close and competitive fight.

Jacobs is older but Canelo is the decidedly more experienced fighter, having essentially fought a who's who list of boxers since his early 20s. This experience - along with the wide variety of styles Canelo has faced throughout the prime of his career - is one of the reasons he seems to get (noticeably) better with each fight. As a fighter still in the middle of his prime I think there's a good chance we'll see an even further improved Canelo in Saturday's fight.

While not as fast as Jacobs on foot, Canelo has deceptively fast hand speed (i.e., likely faster hand speed that Jacobs) which is one of the reasons I anticipate he'll be able to counter Jacobs effectively within range, especially to the body. Despite Jacobs' physical advantages I wouldn't be surprised if Canelo stops Danny given his ability - which perhaps is the best in boxing at the moment - to throw fast and varied power punch combinations with accuracy.

Given Canelo's advantages in skill and experience, along with what I suspect will be a fight scored with at least a shade of pro-Canelo bias in front of what will be an overwhelmingly pro-Canelo crowd on Cinco De Mayo weekend at T-Mobile Arena, I grade Canelo as roughly a 70/30 favorite to win this fight. But, Jacobs is currently being listed as a nearly +400 underdog at many sportsbooks (currently as high as +405 at Bet Online) which implies that sportsbooks feel Jacobs has roughly only a 20% chance to win the fight. Given what I believe to be an undervaluation of Jacobs in the sportsbook market for this fight I actually think taking Jacobs to win is the bet with the best value (despite the fact that I do grade Canelo as a strong favorite to win this fight). If I felt sketchy judging definitely wouldn't be a factor I would take Jacobs to win at those odds quickly without even thinking about it; Jacobs is a highly skilled fighter with a combination of size, power, reach, and determination than Canelo has never seen before which I think at minimum makes Jacob a very live underdog.

Again, I think Jacobs likely loses this fight and - given the politics surrounding the fight and history of scoring in big fights involving Canelo - it's tough to envision Jacobs winning by decision on the scorecards. But I think at nearly 4-1, the odds are too good to pass up a bet on Jacobs given his elite-level skills and the numerous physical advantages he'll have in this matchup. So I'll be taking a small bet on Jacobs to win with an even smaller bet on a draw (at 20-1) as pure value plays.

But this fight could go a number of ways - I'll be in attendance and will be looking forward to see how everything pans out!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bets: 
1) Jacobs to win (.25 unit) 
2) Alvarez/Jacobs draw (.1 unit)

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Canelo vs. Rocky Fielding: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (50-1-2 34 KOs) vs. Rocky Fielding (27-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 15, 2018
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBA (Regular) World Super middleweight title
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line: Alvarez: -1600, Fielding: +1050 (5 Dimes, 12/14/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #3 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion [Alvarez is not ranked at super middleweight], Fielding: #9 ranked super middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Fielding: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

On American soil, Canelo Alvarez is (by far) the top PPV attraction in boxing today, with his last three fights over the past year and a half - his two most recent vs. Gennady Golovkin and another in May 2017 vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. - each selling over 1 million PPV buys. (Canelo's fights vs. Golovkin and Chavez Jr. had the highest PPV buy rates for boxing matches not involving Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson in 2002.)

But this past October, Canelo (supported by his promoter - the Oscar De La Hoya-backed Golden Boy Promotions) exited the traditional PPV model - which reportedly earned him well over $20 million for each of the aforementioned fights - to sign a 5-year, 11-fight contract worth at least $365 million with sports streaming service DAZN, the largest contract for a single athlete in sports history. Canelo's fight this Saturday vs. WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding will be Canelo's first fight since signing that contract and will be the first PPV-level fight DAZN has ever produced in the United States.

Right now, Canelo is on top of the boxing world. He's arguably the most popular fighter in the sport. He's coming off of the most high profile, biggest fight of the year and what was by far the biggest win of his career in his majority decision upset victory over at-the-time undefeated and Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound-ranked unified middleweight champion Golovkin - a fight in which Canelo secured his status as a Mexican boxing legend and future first ballot hall-of-famer. Although the scoring of the fight was highly controversial - most observers felt the fight was either a draw or that Canelo lost a close decision - Canelo's impressive performance largely cooled previous rampant suspicions of illegal performance-enhancing drug use by the Mexican fighter as he tested clean numerous times in the days and weeks leading up to the fight.

At just 28 years old, Canelo is still in the middle of his prime and has arguably still not yet even reached his peak as - including even both fights vs. Golovkin -  Canelo has improved with each fight since his lone loss in 2013 to Floyd Mayweather Jr. and is still seemingly getting better. Canelo is currently the Ring Magazine #3 ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world but on Saturday night will make his claim as #1 as he moves up to super middleweight to fight at 168 lbs for the first time in his career in an attempt to become the fifth Mexican fighter win a major world title in at least 3 weight divisions (Julio Cesar Chavez Sr., Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Jorge Arce).

Canelo will be making his debut on DAZN this Saturday night at Madison Square Garden vs. current WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding. Rocky is a British fighter who will be making his first defense of his super middleweight title after upsetting formerly undefeated champion Tyron Zeuge by 5th-round TKO in Zeuge's home country of Germany this past July. (Rocky entered the fight vs. Zeuge at as high as a 5-1 underdog.)

Rocky lacks experience, having not fought many top-level boxers other than Callum Smith - who he lost to in 2015 by 1st-round TKO. But since the loss to Smith - the only loss of his career - Rocky has been on a 3-year, 6-fight winning streak which included the title win over Zeuge and a win over well-respected British fighter John Ryder. Rocky, who has fought multiple times in his career as high as light heavyweight (178 lbs), has a 4.5" reach advantage over Canelo and is also expected to come into Saturday night's fight with a considerable size advantage.

Canelo vs. Rocky will be Canelo's first fight in New York City (and on the entire East Coast after several fights in the U.S. in Las Vegas, Texas, and Los Angeles) and will be Rocky's first fight outside of Europe (and only his second fight outside of his home country of England).

It's worth noting that Saturday night's fight is for the WBA "Regular" super middleweight championship. The WBA "Super" super middleweight championship is currently held by Callum Smith (who - as noted above - beat Fielding in 2015 by 1st-round TKO). Smith beat George Groves (by 7th-round KO) this past September in the World Boxing Super Series final to win the "Super" version of the WBA super middleweight championship.

Prefight Analysis

As an overwhelming (1-16) favorite who just two months ago signed the richest contract in the history of sports, it should be no surprise that I'm going with Canelo to win Saturday night's fight (and win convincingly).

But Rocky could make this fight tougher than expected. As a natural super middleweight who's even spent some of his career as a light heavyweight, Rocky will come into this fight with an advantage in size combined with respectable enough power to make things tough for Canelo, particularly in the early rounds. (With a 52% TKO/KO percentage, Rocky has knocked out most of the opponents he's faced - all of whom were bigger than Canelo in terms of size.) Rocky has above average combination punching skills and won't be afraid to trade punches with a smaller Canelo. For a super middleweight, Rocky moves well and has the ability to box while backing up, which should open up counterpunching opportunities when Canelo comes forward. Rocky will also come into Saturday's fight with a significant (4.5") reach advantage which - if combined with effective enough movement - could stymie Canelo's aggression.

Note that this is the 3rd consecutive week where the underdog in a high-profile fight will come into the ring with a size, height (Rocky is listed at 6'1" compared to Canelo at 5'8"), and reach advantage, complimented with an ability to move well. (Jose Pedraza last week vs. Vasyl Lomachenko and Tyson Fury the week before that vs. Deontay Wilder.) These qualities enabled the underdog in each of these fights to go the 12-round distance despite a loss by knockout being regarded as the most likely outcome.

Although limited athletically, Rocky has a versatile skill set and the fact is he did just a few months ago beat a heavily favored, undefeated world champion in that champion's home country to win his first title. Saturday night will be (by far) the biggest fight of Rocky's career and possibly even the most important night of his whole life - there is little question he will come to fight and lay it all on the line. Last year, Canelo looked impressive at a 164.5 lb cachet in winning a wide unanimous decision victory vs. a more talented fighter than Rocky in Chavez Jr. (none of the three judges even gave Chavez Jr. a single round). But Rocky is a bigger, tougher, more aggressive fighter than Chavez Jr. and will almost certainly put forth a greater effort than Chavez Jr. did. It shouldn't be much of a surprise at all if Rocky's size and reach in particular pose a much bigger problem than Canelo - who has fought as small as 140 lbs (super lightweight) early on in his career - ever anticipated.

But at the end of the day, Rocky I think lacks the athleticism and knockout power of elite super middleweights like Callum Smith and Gilberto Ramirez to compete with Canelo over 12 rounds. There's too much of a skill and hand speed discrepancy here - Rocky is the bigger fighter but I see Canelo wearing Rocky down and picking him apart with quick, accurate punch combinations in a similar fashion to how he picked apart Chavez Jr., who was bigger and had a better chin than Rocky. Rocky will throw more punches than Chavez Jr. did, but I only see that making Rocky - who has a habit of keeping his hands down after throwing punch combinations - even more susceptible to clean counterpunching.

Although only 28 years old, Canelo has the advantage of a wealth of experience vs. elite opponents and has fought against just about every style of fighter possible. Rocky is versatile, but is a straightforward,  British domestic-level boxer lacking the elite-level skills of fighters like Erislandy Lara, Mayweather, and Golovkin that have given Canelo problems in previous fights.

Rocky doesn't have anything that Canelo hasn't already seen; his size, reach, and movement could be a challenge for Canelo in the early rounds but his lack of athleticism, speed, and real knockout power should make it not too difficult for Canelo to adjust and figure out the timing of the British champion both offensively and defensively.

I see Canelo being somewhat cautious and patient early vs. a bigger super middleweight, but like him to either stop Rocky in the later rounds or win a wide unanimous decision. While I think a stoppage might be slightly more likely, I think both outcomes have a similar chance of occurring so will be placing an equal stake on each outcome. I will be attending this fight and looking forward to the action and seeing in person how well DAZN does with their first big fight in the United States!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Canelo by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 (.5 unit) 
2) Canelo by unanimous decision (.5 unit) 

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