Fight: Gennady Golovkin (35-0, 32 KOs) vs. Kell Brook (36-0, 25 KOs)
Location: O2 Arena (Millennium Dome), London, England
Date: September 10, 2016
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC, IBF, IBO World Middleweight titles
TV: HBO
Line: Golovkin -570, Brook +480 (5 Dimes, 9/10/16)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin: #1 ranked middleweight, Brook: #1 ranked welterweight
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Brook: Orthodox
Referee: Marlon Wright
Why you should watch this fight
Like the recent Terence Crawford/Viktor Postol and Leo Santa Cruz/Carl Frampton matchups, this will be a fight between two undefeated, top-rated boxers in their prime. Golovkin is widely considered the most feared puncher in boxing and is already considered by some to be one of the great middleweights in the history of the sport. This afternoon he'll be matched up against Brook, a legitimate A-level, top pound-for-pound fighter who is by far the most skilled boxer Golovkin has faced in his professional career.
Although a very big welterweight, this will be Brook's first fight at middleweight after fighting nearly his entire career in the welterweight (147 lbs) division. Can Brook - as fellow Brit Amir Khan unsuccessfully attempted to do before him in May vs. Canelo Alvarez - become only the 5th boxer in history to win a major world title in his first fight after jumping up two weight classes (Roberto Duran, Roy Jones Jr., Robert Guerrero, Adrien Broner) and the first to do so in the middleweight division? Or will Golovkin get the stoppage in a hostile environment (the fight is in Brook's home country of England) vs. an undefeated fighter who's never been stopped before and bolster his claim as one of the great middleweights in boxing history?
Arguably the three best middleweights in the world (Golovkin, Alvarez, and Danny Jacobs) are fighting over the course of the next week; Kell Brook may actually be a more skilled boxer than all three. But this coming week is an excellent opportunity to get a good look at fighters who likely will be involved in some intriguing megafights within the middleweight division in the very near future.
Why Gennady Golovkin will win
Golovkin is the reigning WBA (Super), WBC, IBF, and IBO middleweight champion and Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #3 boxer in the world. He is undefeated at 35-0 and, with 32 KOs in 35 fights, holds the highest knockout percentage (91.4%) in middleweight history. Golovkin has reigned as middleweight champion for over six years and has won his last 22 fights by TKO/KO, the most recent 16 of which were middleweight title defenses.
Golovkin is the strong betting favorite in Saturday's fight for several reasons. As the reigning middleweight champion who has successfully defended his title(s) 16 times over the course of a little over six years (currently the 7th longest reign in middleweight history), Golovkin is a much more experienced fighter in the middleweight division than Brook, a career welterweight who is moving up two weight classes to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career vs. an opponent some already consider to be one of the great middleweight boxers of all time.
Golovkin is the strong betting favorite in Saturday's fight for several reasons. As the reigning middleweight champion who has successfully defended his title(s) 16 times over the course of a little over six years (currently the 7th longest reign in middleweight history), Golovkin is a much more experienced fighter in the middleweight division than Brook, a career welterweight who is moving up two weight classes to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career vs. an opponent some already consider to be one of the great middleweight boxers of all time.
Golovkin is naturally bigger, physically stronger, and possesses much more punching power than Brook - whose power at welterweight was good (25 KOs in 36 fights), but not considered great. A big question for this fight is how Brook's power at welterweight will translate to the middleweight division vs. an opponent in Golovkin who seemed unfazed when up against bigger, more dangerous power punchers than Brook (see Golovkin's fights vs. David Lemieux and Marco Antonio Rubio) and has never been knocked down or knocked out in 385 fights as an amateur and pro.
Golovkin is notorious for his outstanding punching power but he is also a technically savvy fighter with underrated boxing skills that are arguably superior to Brook's. Golovkin is an intelligent pressure fighter with one of the better jabs in boxing to compliment his methodical, accurate combination punching. He has impeccable balance in his movement and is excellent at using footwork to cut off the ring. Golovkin's pressure should be effective vs. Brook - who is mobile enough but not known for his foot speed, which could be slower than usual given the additional weight he's put on moving up two weight classes to middleweight. Brook is also known for tiring in the mid to late rounds of fights, which plays into Golovkin's pressure style.
Golovkin is not as quick or as fast as Brook but he controls distance extremely well and has superb punch timing, which should at least be somewhat effective in mitigating Brook's hand and foot speed advantages. Golovkin's pressure and physical size advantage could wear on the smaller Brook, who in previous fights has been effectively pressured and outmuscled by smaller, less skilled boxers than Golovkin. (See the later rounds of Brook's first fight vs. Carson Jones as a primary example.)
Brook is a top-level, pound-for-pound caliber boxer who - given Golovkin's aggressive style and at times willingness to trade punches - will be effective in spots with counters and body shots but Golovkin has been unfazed when facing boxers with significantly more dangerous punching power so there may not be enough in Brook's offensive arsenal to deter the expected Golovkin onslaught.
Why Kell Brook will win
Like Golovkin, Brook is an undefeated fighter in his prime who - while not currently ranked on the Ring Magazine Top 10 pound-for-pound list - is widely considered one of the top pound-for-pound boxers in the world. Brook is a slick, versatile fighter with good power in both hands. He is a highly intelligent, adaptive fighter who can box either in an aggressive, come forward style or box on his feet relying on his timing and counter punching as needed.
At approximately 6-1 odds, Brook is a sizable underdog vs. Golovkin but he has several advantages in his favor. Brook is a legitimate, top-level fighter who is by far the most skilled boxer Golovkin has fought in his professional career; many would actually consider Brook a better fighter than Golovkin in terms of pure boxing skill. Golovkin has dominated all of his opponents thus far in his professional career but he's never fought anyone of Brook's caliber so it will be interesting to see how he fares in this matchup. To give perspective, Golovkin has never fought a top 50 pound-for-pound fighter in his career; Brook is considered by most to be one of the top 10-15 boxers in the world.
Brook has clear hand and foot speed advantages over Golovkin. If Brook can effectively maintain distance vs. Golovkin's pressure he could outbox GGG in stretches by beating him to the punch with jabs (and Brook is known to have one of the better jabs in boxing) and well-timed counters.
Brook is moving up two weight classes to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career but he's always been a very big welterweight with excellent strength for his size. Brook's normal walk around weight is actually around 175-180 pounds (light heavyweight to cruiser division weight) so it may not be as much of a problem as some anticipate for him to fight at 160 pounds, which may even be a more comfortable weight for him than welterweight. I wouldn't be surprised if Brook's power and stamina carry up to middleweight better than expected to the point where he may even be an improved fighter, given that he doesn't have to drain nearly as much weight to make weight at 160 pounds as he did at 147.
Brook is a strong, physical fighter who in previous fights has effectively outmuscled other physically strong welterweights like Shawn Porter. (Porter even had experience fighting at middleweight and in terms of pure physical strength is probably stronger than Golovkin.) Brook had success mitigating Porter's (typically rough-house) inside attack by using his strength to clinch and smother Porter when Porter jumped inside; it would not be too surprising if Brook can similarly frustrate Golovkin by clinching inside on him when he comes into range.
This fight is taking place in Brook's home country of England, in a sold-out O2 arena in front of a raucous crowd that will be loudly cheering on the hometown boxer. As demonstrated countless amounts of times in big fights, home crowd support sometimes affects both the fighting inside the ring and the judging outside of it, usually in the favor of the hometown fighter.
Brook does have some holes in his defense where he does not reset to the correct defensive position quick enough (which sometimes leaves him open for clean counters), but he has only been knocked down once (in the 1st round of a 2007 fight vs. Karl David) and has never been stopped in his professional career. Most are expecting Golovkin to stop Brook but Brook does have enough skill and elusive foot movement to go 12 rounds vs. Golovkin even if he does end up being outclassed.
At approximately 6-1 odds, Brook is a sizable underdog vs. Golovkin but he has several advantages in his favor. Brook is a legitimate, top-level fighter who is by far the most skilled boxer Golovkin has fought in his professional career; many would actually consider Brook a better fighter than Golovkin in terms of pure boxing skill. Golovkin has dominated all of his opponents thus far in his professional career but he's never fought anyone of Brook's caliber so it will be interesting to see how he fares in this matchup. To give perspective, Golovkin has never fought a top 50 pound-for-pound fighter in his career; Brook is considered by most to be one of the top 10-15 boxers in the world.
Brook has clear hand and foot speed advantages over Golovkin. If Brook can effectively maintain distance vs. Golovkin's pressure he could outbox GGG in stretches by beating him to the punch with jabs (and Brook is known to have one of the better jabs in boxing) and well-timed counters.
Brook is moving up two weight classes to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career but he's always been a very big welterweight with excellent strength for his size. Brook's normal walk around weight is actually around 175-180 pounds (light heavyweight to cruiser division weight) so it may not be as much of a problem as some anticipate for him to fight at 160 pounds, which may even be a more comfortable weight for him than welterweight. I wouldn't be surprised if Brook's power and stamina carry up to middleweight better than expected to the point where he may even be an improved fighter, given that he doesn't have to drain nearly as much weight to make weight at 160 pounds as he did at 147.
Brook is a strong, physical fighter who in previous fights has effectively outmuscled other physically strong welterweights like Shawn Porter. (Porter even had experience fighting at middleweight and in terms of pure physical strength is probably stronger than Golovkin.) Brook had success mitigating Porter's (typically rough-house) inside attack by using his strength to clinch and smother Porter when Porter jumped inside; it would not be too surprising if Brook can similarly frustrate Golovkin by clinching inside on him when he comes into range.
This fight is taking place in Brook's home country of England, in a sold-out O2 arena in front of a raucous crowd that will be loudly cheering on the hometown boxer. As demonstrated countless amounts of times in big fights, home crowd support sometimes affects both the fighting inside the ring and the judging outside of it, usually in the favor of the hometown fighter.
Brook does have some holes in his defense where he does not reset to the correct defensive position quick enough (which sometimes leaves him open for clean counters), but he has only been knocked down once (in the 1st round of a 2007 fight vs. Karl David) and has never been stopped in his professional career. Most are expecting Golovkin to stop Brook but Brook does have enough skill and elusive foot movement to go 12 rounds vs. Golovkin even if he does end up being outclassed.
Prefight Analysis
Kell Brook will have his opportunities in this afternoon's fight and may perform better than most expect. As he's already been fighting as a super huge welterweight I don't think the jump in weight classes to middleweight will be nearly as much of a detriment as some think and in many ways may actually improve aspects of his performance (e.g., less weight to drain prefight may lessen his tendency to tire in later rounds) as he will be fighting much closer to his true weight . Brook may actually be the better pure boxer in this matchup; his A-level skills combined with his speed advantage and ability to adjust his fighting style and even his stance (e.g., from orthodox to southpaw) during the course of a fight presents Golovkin with multiple problems he has not yet faced in his professional career. Given this, taking Brook to win by 12-round decision at 9-1 odds *could* have some value.
But honestly I don't this fight being competitive past maybe the early rounds. Many see the two weight class jump as the main problem for Brook. I disagree given that Brook is a naturally bigger guy anyway - I think he will fill out at 160 pounds and adjust to that weight without too much difficulty. Brook's main problems lie in what I think will be a clear disparity between him and Golovkin in terms of chin and overall defensive ability. Brook is an outstanding offensive fighter with with pretty good power and a clear hand speed advantage vs. Golovkin; he should be able to land some quality punches in spots but I don't see his punching having much of an effect on Golovkin - especially considering that Golovkin has already faced much harder hitting opponents at middleweight and effectively stymied their power en route to easy TKO/KO victories. Golovkin - who again has never been knocked down or knocked out in 385 amateur and professional fights - has a proven iron chin and impeccable balance defensively to the point where he should be able to handle Brook's varied offensive attack without too much difficulty.
So the question then is how well will Brook be able handle Golovkin's deadly mix of pressure, offensive skill, and power? At welterweight, Brook has never faced a fighter with Golovkin's punching power; while Brook has pretty good elusive mobility, Golovkin is excellent at cutting off the ring even vs. more mobile opponents and will eventually catch up to Brook. Brook has a good chin but has been bloodied and effectively pressured multiple times at welterweight - even vs. fighters not particularly known for their punching power. Facing an undefeated, top-level champion at middleweight who is perhaps the best power puncher the sport has seen in years I think - somewhat similar to Khan when he fought Canelo - it's only a matter of time before Brook gets caught. If Brook had Khan's ultra-quick hands and foot speed I actually think he'd probably last the full 12 rounds vs. Golovkin but Brook - while having better balance and chin than Khan - isn't nearly as elusive as Khan and will be forced to fight within Golovkin's range for stretches of the fight.
Brook is slick with more speed than Golovkin so may have his moments early but - with the exception of maybe the highly elusive Erislandy Lara - Golovkin vs. any current fighter from 154 to 168 pounds having to trade shots with Golovkin the smart money is on Golovkin by TKO/KO... perhaps not in the early rounds but think Golovkin will be able to overwhelm him by the mid to later rounds.
