Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Date: January 18, 2014
Weight class: Light Heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: NABF Light Heavyweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Pascal -165, Bute +155 (5 Dimes, 1/18/14)
Purse: Pascal: $2 million, Bute: $2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pascal - #10 ranked light heavyweight, Bute - #3 ranked super middleweight
Style: Pascal: Orthodox, Bute: Southpaw
Positives for Pascal
- Ring Magazine #10 light heavyweight. One of the hardest punchers pound-for-pound in the sport. Tremendous KO power in both hands. Pascal's power is somewhat underrated due to relatively low KO % (55%).
- Athletic, explosive boxer who prefers to box from the outside and wait for opportunities to jump in and pressure opponents ambush-style. The awkward angles Pascal throws punches from are often difficult to defend against.
- Has natural quickness; has had hand and foot speed advantage vs. nearly every fighter he has fought and will have these advantages vs. Bute.
- Experienced boxer who has fought many of the elite fighters in his weight class, including Bernard Hopkins (twice), Chad Dawson, and Carl Froch. Pascal beat Dawson who, like Bute, is a slick southpaw technician, by technical decision in 2010.
- Pascal has only lost twice in his career; both times to a current major title holder and future hall-of-famer (Carl Froch in 2008 and Bernard Hopkins in 2011).
- Solid chin; has never been knocked down or in danger of getting stopped in his career.
- Fast starter who generally gets out to early leads in fights.
Negatives for Pascal
- Injury prone boxer who has suffered multiple serious shoulder injuries during fights (in some cases requiring his corner to pop his shoulder back in so he could continue). The injuries may persist and get worse as he gets older, possibly affecting the outcome of this fight.
- Due to his injuries, Pascal has been relatively inactive. Only fought once in 2013 and twice in the past 31 months.
- Has a strong chin, but defensive skills are subpar. Often fights flat-footed with his hands down, which at times allows his opponents to land effective counterpunches.
- Questionable stamina; often starts fast but has a tendency to tire and slow down by the middle of the fight (see both fights vs. Hopkins).
- Relatively low-volume puncher; has a tendency to have stretches of inactivity during fights (particularly in the middle and later rounds when he tires).
Positives for Bute
- Ring Magazine #3 super middleweight. Solid technical boxer with great punching power. Has better technical boxing skills than Jean Pascal.
- Has long been considered one of the top super middleweights in the world. Only loss was to future hall-of-famer and current WBA and IBF super middleweight champion Carl Froch in Froch's hometown of Nottingham, England. Bute has never lost a pro fight in Canada.
- Well-rounded fighter with good hand speed. Strengths are his left uppercut and body punching.
- Has decisively beaten other solid fighters such as Glen Johnson, Edison Miranda, and Librado Andrade.
- Unlike Pascal, Bute has solid stamina; his punching power tends to last though later rounds.
Negatives for Bute
- Highly possible Bute's confidence is shaken since his 5th round TKO loss vs. Froch in 2012. Bute looked unimpressive in his last fight vs. Denis Grachev (won close decision vs. Grachev, who was fighting in only his 14th pro fight).
- Has been inactive due to an injury to his left hand; Bute didn't fight in 2013 and has only fought once since his TKO loss to Froch in May, 2012.
- Bute has mediocre defensive skills and a shaky chin. Like Pascal fights with his hands down at times, leaving him open to counterpunches. Bute has been knocked down in previous fights (most notably in his loss to Carl Froch) and in this fight will be fighting a boxer with even greater punching power than Froch.
- Bute is relatively inexperienced at light heavyweight; this fight vs. Pascal (who has fought his last 8 fights at light heavyweight) will be only the second fight he's fought at this weight..
- Other than Froch, Bute has not fought the level of talent Pascal has. Bute has never beaten a fighter of Pascal's caliber and will be fighting the strongest puncher he's ever fought on a questionable chin after the TKO loss to Froch and the unimpressive, close victory over Denis Grachev in his most recent fights.
Prefight Summary
Lucian Bute has long been one of the top super middleweights in the world but is now fighting in only his second fight at light heavyweight vs. Jean Pascal, a true light heavyweight with true light heavyweight punching power and solid boxing skills. Although Bute has long been considered a top-level boxer, he has been relatively untested in his career with his best wins coming vs. the likes of low B-level fighters such as Glen Johnson and Librado Andrade. The one time Bute fought an opponent of Pascal's caliber in terms of punching power and skill (vs. Carl Froch in 2012) he suffered a devastating, early round TKO which appears to have stymied his career and shaken his confidence.
Pascal is not the top-level, possible future hall-of-fame boxer Froch is but Pascal is very experienced at light heavyweight and fought competitively vs. opponents much tougher than Bute. In 2010, Pascal decisively beat an undefeated, top 10 pound-for-pound boxer in Chad Dawson (who, like Bute, is a slick southpaw with solid technical skills) and in more recent years was in two close, competitive fights with Bernard Hopkins, one of the most skilled technicians in the history of the sport (in 2011 earned a draw vs. Hopkins after scoring two knockdowns and being way ahead early in the fight and in 2012 suffered a close unanimous decision loss).
Both Hopkins and Dawson have strong defensive skills, so for the most part were able to stay out of danger vs. Pascal. Bute does not have the defensive skill nor the foot speed to elude Pascal's ambush style and tremendous punching power for the entire fight. I anticipate Pascal will be able to close in on Bute some time in one of the early rounds and use his quickness and power advantage to overwhelm him en route to an early or mid-round TKO/KO or comfortable decision if he is unable to get the KO.
My two main concerns with this prediction are 1) Pascal's stamina issues and 2) Pascal's history of shoulder troubles. If Pascal gets tired in the middle rounds or if one of his old shoulder injuries recur, I would not be surprised if Bute, who has the superior technical boxing skills and has good punching power in his own right, gains confidence and outboxes Pascal in the later rounds of the fight to eke out a close decision.
But on the whole I don't see Bute's mediocre defense and shaky chin being able to withstand Pascal's speed and power advantages. Bute will try to keep his distance and outbox Pascal from the outside but I expect Pascal to close and catch up to him eventually for the stoppage.
Pascal is not the top-level, possible future hall-of-fame boxer Froch is but Pascal is very experienced at light heavyweight and fought competitively vs. opponents much tougher than Bute. In 2010, Pascal decisively beat an undefeated, top 10 pound-for-pound boxer in Chad Dawson (who, like Bute, is a slick southpaw with solid technical skills) and in more recent years was in two close, competitive fights with Bernard Hopkins, one of the most skilled technicians in the history of the sport (in 2011 earned a draw vs. Hopkins after scoring two knockdowns and being way ahead early in the fight and in 2012 suffered a close unanimous decision loss).
Both Hopkins and Dawson have strong defensive skills, so for the most part were able to stay out of danger vs. Pascal. Bute does not have the defensive skill nor the foot speed to elude Pascal's ambush style and tremendous punching power for the entire fight. I anticipate Pascal will be able to close in on Bute some time in one of the early rounds and use his quickness and power advantage to overwhelm him en route to an early or mid-round TKO/KO or comfortable decision if he is unable to get the KO.
My two main concerns with this prediction are 1) Pascal's stamina issues and 2) Pascal's history of shoulder troubles. If Pascal gets tired in the middle rounds or if one of his old shoulder injuries recur, I would not be surprised if Bute, who has the superior technical boxing skills and has good punching power in his own right, gains confidence and outboxes Pascal in the later rounds of the fight to eke out a close decision.
But on the whole I don't see Bute's mediocre defense and shaky chin being able to withstand Pascal's speed and power advantages. Bute will try to keep his distance and outbox Pascal from the outside but I expect Pascal to close and catch up to him eventually for the stoppage.
