Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: March 8, 2014
Weight class: Light Middleweight (154 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Alvarez -600, Angulo +500 (5 Dimes, 3/8/14)
Purse: Alvarez: $1,250,000, Angulo: $750,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez - #9 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked light middleweight),
Angulo - Not ranked
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Angulo: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks
Positives for Canelo
- At only 23 years old, is Ring Magazine #9 ranked pound-for-pound boxer (#1 ranked light heavyweight). Canelo is one of the best boxer-punchers in the sport; technically savvy boxer with excellent punching power in both hands.
- Patient, but very accurate puncher who throws combinations very well. Best punches are left hook and lead right hand. Also a solid body puncher who knows how to attack the body.
- Extremely efficient puncher. Per CompuBox stats, lands 50% of power punches thrown (#1 amongst all tracked fighters) and 39% of overall punches thrown (#3 amongst all tracked fighters behind Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.).
- Poised fighter who is very mature for his age. Is still improving despite already being one of the top boxers in the sport.
- Only loss of career was to undefeated and current #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the world Floyd Mayweather. Canelo has beaten solid fighters such as current IBF lightweight champion Miguel Vazquez (twice), Austin Trout, future hall-of-famer Shane Mosely, and Kermit Cintron.
- Appears to have a solid chin; has never been knocked down in his career despite having fought larger fighters than Angulo.
- Has defensive flaws but Canelo's defense (in particular his head movement) has noticeably improved over his last few fights.
- Athletic boxer who will have hand speed and overall boxing skill advantage vs. Angulo. Has problems fighting boxers with good movement (like Floyd Mayweather), but this won't be an issue vs. Angulo, who will aim to put pressure on Canelo so will always be right in front of him.
- Canelo is an extremely popular fighter amongst Mexicans and Mexican-Americans; the overwhelming majority of fans in the MGM Grand Arena will be pro-Canelo.
Negatives for Canelo
- Though efficient, Canelo is relatively low-volume puncher who often has stretches of inactivity during fights (i.e., sometimes takes significant portions of rounds off). Due to low volume is prone to getting outworked.
- Has shown stamina issues in previous fights. Canelo's normal walk-around weight is 20+ lbs more than his fighting weight of 154 lbs; draining 20+ pounds to make weight prior to fights appears to affect his stamina during fights, as evidenced by his inactivity during certain portions of fights.
- How good is Canelo's chin really? Canelo has never been knocked down in his career, but - while he's fought boxers with better boxing skills - he's never fought a high-pressure fighter who hits as hard and as often as Angulo. Canelo's chin and stamina will be tested like never before in this fight.
- His defense has improved over his last few fights but Canelo is by no means a defensive wizard. Canelo is slow-footed and often leaves himself open to clean counters after throwing punches. There will likely be portions of the fight where Angulo will have success landing punches.
- Slow-starter who has at times given away the first one or two rounds of fights while adjusting to his opponent.
Positives for Angulo
- One of the best high-pressure, high-volume fighters in the sport. Very aggressive boxer who is adept at cutting off the ring and wearing his opponents down on the inside over the course of the fight. Has had success applying pressure against technically skilled fighters with good movement (e.g., Erislandy Lara) so should have at least some success applying pressure to the more slow-footed Canelo.
- Punches as hard as anyone Canelo has ever fought. 72% KO percentage and has knocked down the likes of defensive technician Erislandy Lara (twice; first two knockdowns of Lara's career) and James Kirkland. Has a knack for jumping on this opponents early (see the Lara and Kirkland fights) which may serve him well vs. a slow-starting fighter like Canelo.
- Possesses excellent stamina. Never gets tired and seems as adept at cutting off the ring and throwing a high volume of punches in later rounds as he is in early rounds.
- Has great determination and a very good chin. Good at continuing to apply pressure and throwing hard punches even as he is getting hit.
- Has only fought 25 professional fights but has fought very competitively vs. a wide array of fighting styles; should be ready for anything Canelo throws at him.
- Has a very good trainer in Virgil Hunter, who also trains #2 pound-for-pound boxer Andre Ward, Amir Khan, and Andre Berto. Sparring vs. other top-level boxers should serve well in preparing for Canelo.
Negatives for Angulo
- Angulo is a B-level boxer who has never beaten a fighter of Canelo's caliber. (Angulo's best wins were against an then-undefeated Harry Joe Yorgey and Gabriel Rosado, both relatively unknown fighters to mainstream boxing fans.) Angulo lost by TKO to his two most notable opponents, Erislandy Lara and James Kirkland.
- Angulo is a very good pressure fighter but will be outclassed by Canelo in terms of overall boxing skill and hand speed. Canelo's punches will likely land before Angulo's, which may compromise Angulo's high-pressure strategy.
- Suffered severe swelling and an orbital fracture injury to his left eye in his last fight, a TKO loss vs. Erislandy Lara. There is a good chance the eye could swell again in later rounds vs. Canelo, one of the hardest and most accurate punchers in the sport. (Could see a repeat of Cotto-Margarito II, where Margarito lost by TKO vs. Cotto due swelling of his right eye, to which suffered an orbital fracture in his previous fight vs. Manny Pacquiao.)
- Poor defensive fighter. Per CompuBox stats, Angulo's opponents land 42% of their power punches, 3rd worst amongst tracked fighters. Angulo's highly aggressive style will very frequently leave him open to counter punching. Angulo is the type of fighter who will stay in front of his opponent and allow himself to get hit so that he can continue to apply pressure and hopefully wear his opponent down in later rounds. But will he be able to withstand the accurate, hard-punching (albeit low-volume) attack Canelo will provide over 12 rounds?
Prefight Summary
Canelo is a young, but very poised and experienced fighter who has shown improvement (particularly with his defense) with each fight. In terms of boxing skill, this fight is a mismatch. Canelo is rated one of the best boxers pound-for-pound in the sport, and is a skilled, efficient power puncher fighting a B-level boxer who statistically is one of the worst television fighters in the sport in terms of allowing his opponents to land power punches. At the end of the day, Angulo is a mediocre talent in his early 30s who has never beaten a boxer of Canelo's caliber. Canelo has had problems in the past vs. boxers who move around the ring well so it seems Angulo, a highly aggressive fighter who will stand in front of Canelo the entire fight and is willing to trade punches, is a great matchup for him.
With this said, it would be foolish to overlook Angulo's chances to win the fight. Angulo is a determined pressure fighter who packs a powerful punch and generally doesn't tire, even well into the later rounds. In his last fight, Angulo fought a highly competitive fight vs. Erislandy Lara (a fighter many consider to be better than Canelo) and was arguably winning the fight prior to the stoppage due to the swelling in Angulo's left eye. In that fight, Angulo was able to successfully pressure Lara, an elite technician with good footwork, so I'd anticipate he'll have at least some success applying pressure to the slower-footed, arguably less savvy Canelo. Canelo is an experienced fighter, but has never fought a boxer who applies as much pressure and packs as much of a punch as Angulo. There is a chance here that Angulo outworks the relatively low-volume, stamina-deficient Canelo and steals a victory by decision or KO. (Though a decision vs. the highly popular Canelo in Vegas strikes me as nearly impossible unless Angulo very decisively outboxes Alvarez.)
However, I think Angulo's defensive flaws and hand speed disadvantages will be his downfall. In terms of accuracy and power, Canelo is the best puncher Angulo has ever fought (Kirkland was perhaps more powerful but not as accurate); especially with the severe eye injury in his last fight, I doubt Angulo will be able to withstand Canelo's effective power punching for 12 full rounds without getting stopped. The question will be whether or not Angulo can get inside on Canelo and stop him first; I think Canelo's hand speed advantage and savvy will largely mitigate Angulo's attack en route to a TKO/KO victory (or wide unanimous decision if Canelo can't get the KO).
My primary bet will be Canelo by TKO/KO but think there is value in hedging with a small amount on Angulo by TKO/KO or Angulo to win.
With this said, it would be foolish to overlook Angulo's chances to win the fight. Angulo is a determined pressure fighter who packs a powerful punch and generally doesn't tire, even well into the later rounds. In his last fight, Angulo fought a highly competitive fight vs. Erislandy Lara (a fighter many consider to be better than Canelo) and was arguably winning the fight prior to the stoppage due to the swelling in Angulo's left eye. In that fight, Angulo was able to successfully pressure Lara, an elite technician with good footwork, so I'd anticipate he'll have at least some success applying pressure to the slower-footed, arguably less savvy Canelo. Canelo is an experienced fighter, but has never fought a boxer who applies as much pressure and packs as much of a punch as Angulo. There is a chance here that Angulo outworks the relatively low-volume, stamina-deficient Canelo and steals a victory by decision or KO. (Though a decision vs. the highly popular Canelo in Vegas strikes me as nearly impossible unless Angulo very decisively outboxes Alvarez.)
However, I think Angulo's defensive flaws and hand speed disadvantages will be his downfall. In terms of accuracy and power, Canelo is the best puncher Angulo has ever fought (Kirkland was perhaps more powerful but not as accurate); especially with the severe eye injury in his last fight, I doubt Angulo will be able to withstand Canelo's effective power punching for 12 full rounds without getting stopped. The question will be whether or not Angulo can get inside on Canelo and stop him first; I think Canelo's hand speed advantage and savvy will largely mitigate Angulo's attack en route to a TKO/KO victory (or wide unanimous decision if Canelo can't get the KO).
My primary bet will be Canelo by TKO/KO but think there is value in hedging with a small amount on Angulo by TKO/KO or Angulo to win.
