Pacquiao vs. Algieri: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Manny Pacquiao (56-5-2, 38 KOs) vs. Chris Algieri (20-0-0, 8 KOs)
Location: Cotai Arena, The Venetian Macau, Macau, China
Date: November 22, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs - fight is being held at 144lb catchweight)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Pacquiao -630, Algieri +520 (5 Dimes, 11/22/14)
Purse: Pacquiao: $25 million, Algieri: $1.675 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao - #4 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked welterweight), Algieri - #3 ranked light welterweight
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Algieri: Orthodox
Referee: Genaro Rodriguez

Positives for Pacquiao
Negatives for Pacquiao
Positives for Algieri
Negatives for Algieri
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Pacquiao

• Although he has (arguably) slipped somewhat, Pacquiao is still one of the elite fighters in the sport (ranked #4 pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine). Pacquiao still has much of the blazing hand speed and explosive power that made him a boxing icon. Future first ballot hall-of-famer who is alongside Floyd Mayweather as one of the top two fighters of this generation. 
• Ambush fighter who is adept at moving in on his opponents and using his excellent hand speed to land clean, powerful combinations, then using foot speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter. Although past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite speed and footwork and will have a clear hand and foot speed advantage going into this fight vs. Algieri.
• Pacquiao hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over 5 years (8 fights; last TKO/KO win was 12th round TKO of Miguel Cotto in November 2009) but still has KO power in both hands. Scored two knockdowns in his December 2012 fight vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and appeared on the verge of a KO victory before getting caught with a counter right hand near the end of the 6th round that ended the fight.
• Unpredictable, tricky fighter who often throws punches from awkward angles, making it very difficult for even skilled defensive fighters to anticipate where the punches are coming from. Manny's best punch is his straight left hand, which was especially effective for him in both fights vs. Timothy Bradley. Despite some defensive flaws, has excellent head movement, which can make him difficult to hit cleanly.
• Pacquiao has had great success in the past vs. taller fighters with a significant reach advantage (see his fights. vs. 5'11" Antonio Margarito and 5'10" Oscar De La Hoya who were both dominated by Pacquiao despite the height and 5" reach advantage). Shorter fighters can often be elusive for taller fighters as taller fighters may have to bend over and shoot punches at angles to catch their opponents.
• How much has Pacquiao really slipped over his past few fights? The vast majority of boxing fans felt Pacquiao won both fights vs. Bradley convincingly. In his most recent fight vs. Marquez, Pacquiao was clearly winning the fight; knocking Marquez down twice and appearing to be on his way towards a KO victory before Marquez ended the fight with a sneaky right hand. In Pacquiao's last fight vs. Brandon Rios, Pacquiao arguably won all 12 rounds. (One judge in the Rios fight did score all 12 rounds for Pacquiao.) 
• Experienced fighter whose defense and technical skills have improved over the years under HOF trainer Freddie Roach. Arguably outboxed Bradley in both of their fights and Marquez in their most recent fight despite taking losses in two out of the three fights. Despite slightly diminished power and speed is less reckless and displays higher boxing IQ now than he did in his prime. Will come into this fight with a clear advantage in experience vs. Algieri, who has previously only fought in one world title fight and never fought a pro fight outside the New York City metropolitan area. In his HOF career, Pacquiao has already dominated and/or knocked out much tougher opponents than Algieri.
• The crowd at the Venetian in Macau will be overwhelmingly pro-Pacquiao. Pacquiao, arguably the greatest Asian fighter in the history of the sport, will be fighting in front of a mostly Asian crowd. Pacquiao's trainer Freddie Roach is also popular in China as he is the current trainer of wildly popular Chinese boxer (and current WBO International Flyweight champion and two-time Olympic gold medalist) Zhou Shiming (who will be fighting on the undercard that same night). Fighting in Asia, it is unlikely the relatively unknown Algieri will get a decision victory vs. Pacquiao unless he clearly dominates the fight. 
• Unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big PPV fights.

Negatives for Pacquiao

• Pacquiao is 35 years old (more than 5 years older than Algieri) and, while still an elite fighter, has lost some of the power, speed, and quickness he had in his prime. Pacquiao has lost two out of his last four fights and hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over half a decade (8 fights). Generally, boxers who rely on hand speed, quickness, and other athletic abilities don't age as well as pure technical boxers.
• Though inexperienced. Pacquiao's opponent Algieri is an undefeated, highly confident world champion currently in the prime of his career. As he showed in his most recent fight vs. Provodnikov, Algieri is tough and resilient; many knowledgeable boxing fans feel he has the boxing skills to pull off the upset vs. the aging Pacquiao.
• Pacquiao is fighting at both a significant height and reach disadvantage vs. a very skilled boxer in Algieri. Despite Manny's significant speed advantage, Algieri's range and above average mobility may make it difficult for Manny to land clean punches.
• Pacquiao is an excellent ambush fighter who boxes very well when coming towards his opponents but does not fight nearly as well when fighting backing up on his feet. Algieri has a fairly powerful, accurate jab which, when combined with his reach advantage, can back Pacquiao into positions where he won't be able to fight as effectively. If Algieri is as effective with his jab as he was vs. Provodnikov, this fight could be competitive. 
• While Pacquiao's defense has improved over the years with Freddie Roach, Pacquiao is far from a defensive mastermind. Pacquiao's aggression and awkward punching style often leaves him out-of-position, subjecting him to clean counter punching (as seen multiple times in his KO loss vs. Marquez and in the early rounds of his most recent fight vs. Bradley). Pacquiao also isn't as mobile and doesn't roll with punches quite as well as he did in his prime. If he can survive the early rounds, Algieri is a solid, savvy counter puncher who is capable of making the necessary adjustments to exploit Pacquiao's defensive flaws in spots.
• Pacquiao's significant distractions outside the ring have been well-publicized. Pacquiao is a full-time Congressman in the Phillipines when he's not boxing and as a recently born-again Christian, has made numerous lifestyle changes. Pacquiao is also the (part-time) head coach and player for the Kia Sorentos, a basketball team in the Philippine Basketball Association, the top basketball league in the Phillipines. Pacquiao also has a long-term goal of being President of the Phillipines. Is his heart still really in boxing? With all his distractions, Pacquiao could easily overlook a very tough, solid fighter in Algieri and come into this fight unprepared.

Positives for Algieri

• Current WBO light welterweight champion. Very tough, resilient fighter with high boxing IQ and solid all-around boxing skills. Algieri is undefeated in 20 professional fights and has beaten proven fighters such as Emmanuel Taylor (who lost a close decision to Adrien Broner in his most recent fight) and former WBO light welterweight champion Ruslan Provodnikov. Highly confident fighter who truly believes he will win this fight.
• Tall, long fighter who throws combinations well and is especially accurate with his jabs and lead right punch. Is generally a counter puncher who has good speed and fights well off his back foot. Algieri's solid jab was key in his recent upset win vs. Provodnikov; opponents with solid jabs have often used the jab with good success vs. Pacquiao (see Bradley, Marquez, and Erik Morales's fights vs. Pacquiao). 
• Algieri is 30 years old - five years younger than Pacquiao. At 5'11" with a 72" reach, Algieri possesses a 4" height and 5" reach advantage vs. Pacquiao; although Pacquiao has in the past had success vs. taller, longer fighters, Algieri may have the speed and savvy to use his height and reach to his advantage. Despite fighting at lower weight classes than Pacquiao (Algieri currently competes at 140 lbs), Algieri is the naturally bigger man and will likely come in to the fight with the weight advantage.   
• Technically skilled boxer with the ability to adjust to his opponent's style over the course of a fight. Made effective adjustments in his most recent fight vs. Provodnikov after being knocked down twice in the 1st round to pull off the upset victory.
• Extremely well conditioned fighter with good endurance. Algieri works professionally as nutritionist and personal trainer and has a master's degree in clinical nutrition.
• Gritty boxer who also has experience as a kick boxer; was an undefeated world kickboxing champion before retiring to become a professional boxer.

Negatives for Algieri

• Algieri is undefeated (20-0) as a pro but has not fought anything close to the elite level of competition Pacquiao has. Algieri's toughest opponents to date have been a solid B-level fighter in Emmanuel Taylor (over whom he scored a competitive but clear unanimous decision victory) and a one-dimensional power puncher in Ruslan Provodnikov, over whom he scored a highly debatable split decision win. (I scored the fight 116-110 for Provodnikov.) It's highly possible Algieri is in way over his head vs. Pacquiao, an all-time great who has significantly more experience, talent, and skill than anyone he has ever fought.
• Algieri moves well and has good hand and foot speed but Pacquiao's footwork and speed is on another level, (i.e., among that of the all-time greats). If a relatively slow, flat-footed boxer such as Provodnikov was able to successfully pressure Algieri (Provodnikov knocked Algieri down twice in the first round and applied effective pressure in various other spots throughout the fight), how will Algieri be able to handle the lightning quick speed combined with power of Pacquiao? Both Timothy Bradley and Juan Manuel Marquez, two future hall-of-famers much more skilled and elusive than Algieri, had  (by their own admittance) problems with Pacquiao's speed - why would Algieri fare any different? 
•  Algieri lacks punching power; of Algieri's 20 wins, only 8 were by TKO/KO (with half of those 8 occurring in his first 6 fights vs. weak, unknown competition). Algieri is considered less of a puncher than former Pacquiao opponent Timothy Bradley, who was noted for his lack of punching power. Algieri's lack of power will likely allow Pacquiao to stay aggressive and take more chances in the fight. 
• Despite winning the fight, Algieri suffered massive swelling of his right eye vs. Provodnikov a few months ago. If Pacquiao targets the eye (which is highly possible), would expect the eye to re-swell and cause Algieri problems over the latter course of the fight.
• Algieri will have a clear height and reach advantage coming into the fight but those "advantages" may actually be a liability as taller, longer fighters often have trouble locating and landing clean punchers against shorter fighters (who tend to be quicker and more elusive). Pacquiao has had success in the past in high profile fights vs. taller fighters with range. 
• This fight is the first time Algieri has fought at welterweight in his career. The fight will actually be held at a catchweight (144 lbs) but this is the first time Algieri had fought above 140 lbs. How will his power (or, rather, his previously noted lack thereof) transfer to a higher weight class vs. a slightly larger opponent? Pacquiao, on the other hand, is very experienced at welterweight; many of his most notable fights took place at welterweight. 
• Algieri has never fought a solid southpaw in his career. His two notable fights vs. Provodnikov and Taylor were both fights against right-handed opponents.  
• This fight in Macau, China will be Algieri's first professional fight outside the New York City metropolitan area. How will he handle fighting overseas in front of an overwhelmingly pro-Pacquiao crowd? Despite the fact that two of the judges are from the U.S. can Algieri, who is little to no threat to win this fight by knockout, really expect to get a decision victory in China?

Summary

Other than a lucky punch (and it would have to be *very* lucky punch considering his lack of power), I'm not seeing how Algieri will pull off the upset here. Yes, Algieri is undefeated and is a tough, solid boxer with underrated skills. With his mobility and accurate jab, Algieri may have success in spots using his reach advantage to jab and evade Pacquiao's frequent ambush attacks or use his jab as a set up for clean counters when Pacquiao tries to get inside. Algieri is very well conditioned so I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is able to move effectively and box off his back foot the entire 12 rounds vs. Pacquiao without tiring. If Pacquiao fights a somewhat cautious fight (as he has for stretches of his previous two fights vs. Brandon Rios and Bradley after losing by KO in his 4th fight vs. Marquez), there is a possibility Algieri could outwork Pacquiao in spots to keep the fight competitive.

But I see Pacquiao's speed advantage being the key to this fight. Despite being 35 years old and past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite hand and foot speed, the likes of which Algieri has never seen before. Pacquiao still has great talent, skill, power, and experience, also the likes of which Algieri has never seen before. Algieri can try to move and stay out of range from Pacquiao's power all he wants but he certainly won't be able to go a full 12 (or even a couple) of rounds before Manny and his superior speed eventually catches up to him. Algieri was able to stay competitive vs. Provodnikov largely because Ruslan is flat-footed (i.e., usually has to be set before throwing a power punch) and Chris had the speed advantage; in this fight Manny will have the clear speed advantage vs. Algieri and is capable of throwing punching from a variety of awkward angles that will be difficult for Algieri to anticipate.

I feel Pacquiao's speed and power will easily overwhelm Algieri's reach advantage, mobility, and whatever game plan he has in store for Manny. Algieri is a tough kid for sure and I would not at all be surprised if he gets through all 12 rounds, but I'm leaning towards by Pacquiao by TKO/KO. Algieri has beaten every opponent put in front of him but, even at 35, Pacquiao is a couple levels above not only every opponent Algieri has ever faced but Algieri himself; I expect Pacquiao's brilliance to shine once again Saturday night in Macau.

Prediction: Pacquiao by TKO/KO

Hopkins vs. Kovalev: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Bernard Hopkins (55-6-2-2, 32 KOs) vs. Sergey Kovalev (25-0-1, 23 KOs)
Location: Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey
Date: November 8, 2014
Weight class: Light Heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super Light Heavyweight title, IBF Light Heavyweight title, WBO Light Heavyweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Hopkins +240, Kovalev -260 (5 Dimes, 11/8/14)
Purse: Hopkins: $1 million, Kovalev: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Hopkins - #1 ranked light heavyweight, Kovalev - #2 ranked light heavyweight
Style: Hopkins: Orthodox, Kovalev: Orthodox

Positives for Hopkins

• Along with Marvin Hagler and Carlos Monzon, one of the great middleweight boxers of all time. In his prime, defended his middleweight title(s) a record 20 consecutive times over a 10+ year period. Current IBF, WBA, and IBA light heavyweight champion of the world and is the oldest boxer to ever win and defend a world title. Still a master class technician at age 49. Future first ballot hall-of-famer.
• Tough, savvy boxer with an extremely high boxing IQ (perhaps the highest IQ in the sport). Has an excellent trainer in Naazim Richardson but practically coaches himself during fights. Adept at making adjustments during the fight and neutralizing his opponent's strengths. Superb all-around boxer with no major weaknesses.
• Particularly adept at fighting inside and wearing his opponents down with body shots. Arguably the best inside fighter of the past 20 years.
•  Has excellent defensive skills. Keeps chin down behind his lead shoulder with his hands held high, making him a tough target to hit cleanly. Has a solid chin when hit.
• Hopkins is a more skilled, technically sound boxer than Kovalev. Hopkins generally controls the pace/tempo of fights and is adept at using "gray-area" tactics (e.g., excessive clinching, hitting opponents during clinches, head butts, smothering, etc.) to his advantage.  
• Doesn't have the knockout power he once had but still has good power in both hands. In his most recent fight (vs. then WBA light heavyweight champion Beibut Shumenov), scored a knockdown in the 11th round. 
• At 49 years old, will still have a speed/mobility advantage vs. the slower Kovalev. Hopkins has excellent (and often underrated) footwork as well as a slight (2.5") reach advantage which he will likely use to try and manage distance and neutralize Kovalev's dangerous knockout power. Hopkins has had success in the past vs. big punchers with slower mobility (e.g., his victories vs. at the time undefeated boxers Felix Trinidad and Kelly Pavlik). 
• Despite his age is still in world class shape, as evidenced by the fact that he is the current light heavyweight champion of the world and within the past 3.5 years has convincingly beaten the likes of Beibut Shumenov (almost 19 years his junior), Karo Murat (18 years his junior), Tavoris Cloud (17 years his junior), and Jean Pascal (18 years his junior) - 3 of whom are former world champions and all of whom were ranked one of the top 10 light heavyweight boxers in the world at the time they fought Hopkins. (Pascal and Shumenov are still currently ranked in the top 5 of light heavy weight boxers in the world.)
• Hopkins is the more experienced fighter by a wide margin. Has fought (and beaten) the likes of Keith Holmes, Felix Trinidad, Oscar De La Hoya, Roy Jones Jr., Kelly Pavlik, and William Joppy. In his prime, Hopkins achieved a record 20 middleweight world title defenses. For comparison, Kovalev's best opponents have been lesser known, B-level fighters such as Nathan Cleverly and Gabriel Campillo (though both are former world champions). 
• Will be fighting in front of a decidedly pro-Hopkins crowd in Atlantic City, NJ (only a one hour drive from his hometown of Philadelphia, PA). This will be Hopkins' 19th time fighting in Atlantic City as a pro. 

Negatives for Hopkins

• Hopkins is 49 years old (only two months from his 50th birthday and eligibility to join AARP), 18 years older than Kovalev. For comparison, Hopkins is actually over a year older than long-retired former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson and is only slightly younger than retired boxing legends Pernell Whitaker (50 years old), Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. (52), and Evander Holyfield (52). Hopkins has consistently fought at a world-class level and beaten top-level competition but he'll inevitably slow down at his older age. Could this fight vs. the naturally bigger, younger, more powerful Kovalev be the fight where he finally shows his age? 
• While Hopkins has fought a lot of top-level competition in his recent fights, he's only fought one boxer over the past six years considered "elite" at the time they fought (Chad Dawson) and struggled in both fights. (The first fight was a no contest decision that Hopkins was clearly losing and the second fight Hopkins lost by majority decision.)
• Although Hopkins has an excellent chin, he is susceptible to being knocked down, having been knocked down twice in both his first fight vs. Jean Pascal in 2011 and his first fight vs. Segundo Mercado back in 1994 (both fights ended in a draw). Although Hopkins was not seriously hurt after any of those knockdowns neither Pascal nor Mercado possess the punching power of Kovalev, who has knocked out by early round TKO/KO nearly 90% of the opponents he's faced. 
• Notoriously slow starter in fights. Starts slow while taking the time to read and make adjustments to his opponent.  
• Has a tendency to pace himself during fights, especially in this late stage of his career where the volume of punches he throws is noticeably down from where it was in his prime. He'll often fight in spurts, sometimes having significant portions of rounds where he isn't very active (which leaves him susceptible to being outworked and outscored on the judges' scorecards). Sometimes slow in setting up his punches.
• Although he has good power in both hands, Hopkins doesn't have the knockout power he once had. Hopkins has never really been a knockout puncher and won't win this fight by KO. If Hopkins wants to win this fight, he'll have to win by decision. 

Positives for Kovalev

• Undefeated boxer (25-0-1) and current WBO light heavyweight champion. (Lone draw on his record was a technical stoppage due to an accidental foul in the 2nd round.) Devastating power puncher with excellent power in both hands. 
• Out of his 25 wins, 23 (almost 90%) have come by KO. One of the most feared men in boxing. Has literally killed another boxer in the ring. (Roman Simakov died of brain injuries days after his December 2011 fight with Kovalev.)
• Although known primarily as a power puncher, Kovalev has underrated boxing skills. Patient fighter who doesn't waste punches.Very efficient, highly accurate puncher who throws combinations well and has an excellent straight right hand (as seen in his most recent fight vs. Blake Caparello). When punching uses angles well and is effective at throwing leaping lead hooks from distance, which makes him somewhat unpredictable in his attack. Is also a devastating body puncher, one of the best in the sport.
• At 31 years old, Kovalev is in the prime of his career facing a nearly 50-year old fighter nearing the end of his career. Hopkins is an all-time great but Kovalev is the younger, naturally bigger, and stronger fighter.
• Kovalev doesn't have the top-level experience Hopkins has but he does have good experience vs. very solid fighters. The combined record of Kovalev's five most recent opponents was an impressive 113-2-1 before he fought them, including two undefeated fighters in Nathan Cleverly and Cedric Agnew and two former world champions in Cleverly and Gabriel Campillo. 
• Kovalev's trainer, John David Jackson, has years of experience with Hopkins; sparring with him early in his career, fighting against him in a 1997 middleweight title fight, and as his assistant trainer for four years (including during Hopkins' upset victories vs. Antonio Tarver and Kelly Pavlik). Jackson knows Hopkins as well as nearly any trainer in the sport, which is certainly to Kovalev's advantage.  

Negatives for Kovalev

• While Kovalev has fought some solid opponents, his experience isn't even close to that of Hopkins, who has fought (and decisively beaten) future first ballot hall-of-famers like Felix Trinidad, Oscar De La Hoya, and Roy Jones Jr. Hopkins is by far the best opponent Kovalev has faced in his career.  
• Kovalev has never gone past eight rounds in his professional career, having been to the eight round only once and past the 4th round only four times in his career. Hopkins' defensive skill and experience means there's a good change Kovalev's stamina and ability to box past the early/mid rounds will be tested for the first time in his career. 
• Kovalev is one of the most feared punchers in boxing, but is unproven as an inside fighter; Hopkins, one of the great inside fighters in the history of boxing, may have some success if he can smother Kovalev and make the fight an inside brawl. Kovalev has KO power in both hands but his power isn't quite as strong from his left hand as it is from his right.
• Kovalev's defense is far from poor but is flawed. Kovalev's come forward, offensive-minded approach often results in his dropping his guard which leaves him susceptible to clean counters, something Hopkins will likely try to take advantage of. (If Hopkins wins the fight it will likely largely be due to his ability to exploit Kovalev's defensive holes though Kovalev opponents are often fearful of throwing counter punches as it leaves them exposed to Kovalev's power.) Kovalev's chin is also not proven; he's suffered a first-round knockout loss as an amateur and has been knocked down twice as a professional, including his last fight vs. Caparello.
• While Kovalev's boxing skills are very good (and oft underrated), Hopkins is still the superior boxer in terms of technical skill and IQ. Kovalev won't win a chess match vs. Hopkins. Hopkins will also have a speed and footwork advantage vs. the somewhat slower, less agile Kovalev. 

Prefight Summary

This is a tough fight to predict as there are many ways this fight could go (depending on a number of different variables). Bernard Hopkins is certainly a master class boxer, one of the great (i.e., top 50) boxers in the history of the sport. It would not at all be surprising to see Hopkins pull off the upset; he has been in this position a few times before (as a significant underdog to a younger, undefeated, hyped-up boxer with big punching power) vs. boxers even more highly regarded than Kovalev and more than once won convincingly (see his fights vs. Trinidad and Pavlik). Hopkins is a master at adjusting to his opponents' tendencies and has the uncanny ability to neutralize his opponents' strengths over the course of a fight. I can easily see Hopkins using his technical skill, footwork, and speed advantage to stay out of Kovalev's power punching range but also be capable of sneaking in on Kovalev to make the fight a brawl from the inside, where Kovalev is largely untested. (Hopkins on the other hand is one of the best inside fighters of his generation.) In focusing primarily on his offensive attack, Kovalev's defense is suspect at times; Hopkins will likely have spots in the fight where he exposes Kovalev's defensive holes with clean counter punches. Kovalev has shown his defensive flaws in previous fights vs. lesser fighters - I'd expect there will be at least a few moments in the fight where Hopkins will have the opportunity to outpoint Kovalev, perhaps even enough to earn Hopkins a victory by decision.

The (huge) rub here is that Hopkins, while still a top-level boxer, is almost 50 years old and near the end of his career fighting a deadly power puncher in his prime who is younger, naturally bigger, and stronger than him. Hopkins is still a very good boxer but his punching volume has decreased and skills have diminished a bit since his prime days as a middleweight champion; I doubt he'll be able to outwork Kovalev (and may not even try to fully engage Kovalev as that will leave him more prone to Kovalev countering with his devastating punching power).

Kovalev is an excellent power puncher for sure, but he is also a very skilled boxer. He's an intelligent fighter who throws punches with a high level of efficiency and is very accurate. While not as agile as Hopkins, Kovalev does possess pretty good foot mobility and hand speed; there's a good chance Hopkins' elusiveness and defensive skills keeps him out of danger for much of the fight but I see it as only a matter of time over the course of 12 rounds before Kovalev lands a devastating punch (or series of punches) that changes the course of the fight. Hopkins may try to smother Kovalev and turn the fight into an inside brawl (which may mitigate Kovalev's punching power) but Kovalev, the bigger and stronger fighter, should be able to outmuscle Hopkins and not allow him to dictate the pace of the fight.

Hopkins is a current world champion who has won his last three fights by decision vs. very solid opponents but during the same time frame, Kovalev has won by early-round TKO/KO vs. comparably-skilled fighters. Kovalev is a level or two above any opponent Hopkins has fought over the past two years and will show it Saturday night.

Because Hopkins has never been knocked out or seriously hurt in a fight I'm reluctant to pick Kovalev by TKO/KO but do think Kovalev's punching power and underrated boxing skill will carry him to victory if not by mid-round TKO/KO then by a 117-111/116-112'ish unanimous decision victory. Kovalev is is exactly the type of fighter who will force Hopkins, for the first time in his long and brilliant career, to finally show his age.

Prediction: Kovalev to win