Gervonta Davis vs. Ryan Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Gervonta Davis (28-0, 26 KOs) vs. Ryan Garcia (23-0, 19 KOs) 

Location:  T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: April 22, 2023
Weight class: Super lightweight (catchweight of 136 lbs)
Major title(s) on the line: None
TV/Stream: Showtim PPV/DAZN PPV
Line (Bovada): Davis: -225, Garcia: +185  (as of 4/21/23)
Purse: Davis: $ million, Garcia: $ million 
Ring Magazine Rankings: Davis: #2 ranked lightweight, Garcia: #3 ranked lightweight
Style: Davis: Southpaw, Garcia: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

In a lot of ways, I see the value in taking Ryan Garcia to win this fight as a 2-1 underdog (or even as high as an 8-1 underdog if betting him to win by decision). At the end of the day, Garcia is a highly-accomplished, undefeated fighter with an inordinate amount of self-confidence. (As boxing fans know, confidence and self-belief goes a long, long way in this sport - perhaps more so than any other sport.) Garcia also happens to be the bigger, faster, and taller fighter, and will enter Saturday's fight with a slight - but still very notable - 2.5" reach advantage. 

Garcia has concussive power with lighting-quick hands that - similar to Manny Pacquiao in his heydey - actually amplify the effect of his power. (Obviously not saying Garcia is as great as the Filipino legend, just comparing the speed and its effect on their punching power.) At only 24 years old, he's even the younger fighter in this matchup... many still look at Gervonta as a very young fighter despite the fact that he's actually fast approaching his 30s (Gervonta turns 29 later this year). 

Saturday's fight is likely the first fight in Gervonta's professional career where he'll face a fighter who has quicker hands, faster reflexes, and a longer reach than he does. Boxing observers might be underestimating - perhaps severely - how difficult it might be for Gervonta to close distance and land punches effectively given Ryan's advantages here. And given Gervonta's propensity for starting slow in fights, he might dig himself into a hole in the early rounds that might be too difficult to come back from if Ryan can manage distance well enough and use his advantages in length and quickness to evade Gervonta's pressure in the mid to late rounds. 

We've already seen several upsets of undefeated, highly-regarded fighters in just the past couple of months (Rey Vargas, Sebastian Fundora, and Joe Joyce perhaps the most notable examples). Garcia defeating Gervonta Davis would certainly be the most high-profile upset of them all, though Garcia is actually considered less of an underdog than any of the fighters who beat the aforementioned Vargas (O'Shaquie Foster at +225), Fundora (Brian Mendoza at +620), or Joyce (Zhilei Zhang at +560) were in the opening betting lines for those fights.  At nearly +200 to win, or even +800 by decision, betting a small amount on Ryan Garcia to win is intriguing and may have some value. 

But I really like Gervonta in this matchup. I think his advantages in all-around skill, ring IQ, and big fight experience will shine through on Saturday night. Over the past several years, including recent fights, Gervonta in my opinion has proven himself to be a more complete, more technically-skilled boxer than Ryan. Now I'd rate Gervonta's reflexes - and arguably even his power - as not quite as good as Ryan's. But Tank does have trigger-quick, concussive power of his own that I think will ultimately prove to be much more effective than Ryan's down the stretch. 

For all the hype and attention surrounding Gervonta's knockout power and aggression, Gervonta is by nature a patient, thinking fighter with vastly underrated ring IQ. In consistency with his cautiously aggressive style, Gervonta will likely place much higher priority than the sometimes reckless Ryan - who's defensive deficiencies (most notably his tendency of fighting in a tall, upright stance with his chin up) are much more glaring - on responsible defense and evading potential fight-ending counters. 

Ryan has in multiple fights also shown a questionable chin - most notably getting knocked down in the 2nd round of his January 2021 TKO victory vs. Luke Campbell. (Luke Campbell was a solid, respected fighter, though was never a fighter known for his punching power.) I suspect Gervonta, on the other hand, may prove to have a granite chin. (The fact that Gervonta has never even come close to getting knocked down or knocked out in his pro career and even the structure and density of Gervonta's larger-than-normal sized head is evidence of this.)

Gervonta is a smart, fundamentally sound fighter who's consistently shown the ability to make adjustments and apply pressure with increasing efficiency as fights get into the middle and later rounds. Gervonta actually throws the fewest punches per round of any CompuBox-tracked fighter but is #1 amongst all CompuBox-tracked fighters in the percentage of times (47.6%) he lands power punches... a testament to his cautiously aggressive -yet highly accurate - style. 

Garcia seems supremely confident heading into Saturday's matchup, but he's still very young and will be headlining a PPV even for the first time in his career. Gervonta is equally confident, but has much more experience on this stage; Saturday's fight will be his 6th consecutive fight as the A-side for a PPV event.

As quick-tempered and emotional as Gervonta sometimes is outside of the ring, he's consistently shown Mayweather-esque poise inside of it, including the ability to block out whatever issues/troubles he might have going on in his personal life. I think Gervonta's poise and patient fighting style will get rewarded when Garcia's defensive deficiencies (upright chin, tendency to drop hands and predictably pull back in a straight line when moving out of the pocket, below average foot positioning, etc.) catch up to him in the mid to late rounds. Both fighters will land power punches - I just see Gervonta being able to handle Garcia's landed punches better due to having a better chin, more responsible defense, and previous experience in tough, big fights. Garcia is also at times reckless and overeager to land his power shots - which I think plays perfectly into the hands of a much more cautious fighter like Gervonta.

The clear play for me here is Gervonta Davis by TKO/KO/DQ at -150 or better (I bet Gervonta by TKO/KO/DQ at -132 odds). With that said - given the advantages I outlined earlier for Garcia - it may also be worth hedging this bet with Ryan Garcia to win by decision at +600 or better given how wide those odds are (though I personally won't be making this bet).

Definitely looking forward to attending this fight! Will likely be the most star-studded boxing event since the final boxing events involving Floyd Mayweather several years ago. The clash of styles, personalities, and even fan demographics here between the two fighters is fascinating so will be very curious to see how this all plays out. Good luck in however you decide to bet!

Prediction: Davis by TKO/KO/DQ

Recommended bet: Davis by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to WIN 1 unit) 

Broner vs. Vargas: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Adrien Broner (33-3, 24 KOs) vs. Jessie Vargas (28-2, 10 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: April 21, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs - though fight is being fought at a catchweight of 144 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  None
TV: Showtime
Line: Broner: +120, Vargas: -130 (5 Dimes, 4/21/18)
Purses: Broner: $1 million, Vargas: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Broner: Not ranked, Vargas: #7 ranked welterweight
Style: Broner: Orthodox, Vargas: Orthodox
Referee: Charlie Fitch

Why you should watch this fight

As indicated by the betting odds, Broner vs. Vargas is a fairly even-matched fight between Adrien Broner, an immensely talented boxer who's won major world titles in an impressive four different weight classes (and was the youngest fighter in boxing history to do so), and Jessie Vargas, a skilled fighter in his own right who's won major world titles in two weight classes.

Both fighters are in their late 20s and still very much in their primes, but for both, this fight is likely a true "last chance" to keep their names amongst the mix of the top fighters in the welterweight (147 lbs) and junior welterweight (140 lbs) divisions; the loser of this fight will likely - and perhaps permanently - be relegated to gatekeeper status.

Broner - at one time rated as high as the #5 pound-for-pound fighter in the world by Ring Magazine - suffered the first loss of his career 3.5 years ago vs. aggressive power-puncher Marcos Maidana. Broner also lost (decisively) the two times he stepped up to fight A-level competition - a wide unanimous decision loss to Shawn Porter in the summer of 2015 and, in his most recent fight 7 months ago, another clear unanimous decision loss to (undefeated) current junior welterweight champion Mikey Garcia. A loss to a respected. but relatively unheralded Vargas would possibly be the worst loss of his career and perhaps be confirmation Broner doesn't have the physical (or mental) skills or ability to beat a top-level opponent.

Vargas has had similar opportunities to break through vs. A-level opponents - his fight vs. Timothy Bradley Jr. in 2015 and his fight vs. Manny Pacquiao for the WBO welterweight title in 2016. Like Broner, both opportunities resulted in wide unanimous decision losses. A loss to Broner would actually be the worst loss of his career and solidify his status in a currently stacked welterweight division as a gatekeeper (as opposed to legitimate title contender).

But the winner of this fight will likely find himself right back in the mix near the top of the welterweight (or light welterweight) division and would be a prime candidate for a title shot in their next fight. (A title shot that could conceivably be accompanied by a 7-figure payday.)

Broner vs. Vargas is the headliner for a stacked card which also features former light middleweight (154 lbs) champion Jermall Charlo - who has recently moved up in weight and will be fighting the second middleweight fight of his career vs. Hugo Centeno Jr. - and former super featherweight champion Gervonta Davis, an electrifying, young knockout puncher seeking to regain the super featherweight title after losing it on the scales last year on the undercard of the Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor PPV event.

Prefight Analysis

I see Broner vs. Vargas as a relatively even matchup between two B+-level fighters and, quite frankly, there are more tangible reasons to pick Broner than Vargas in this fight.

Broner is unquestionably the more talented fighter with the superior set of skills in this matchup. He's more athletic, has quicker hands and feet, is the more accurate and efficient puncher, has superior punching power, and has better defensive fundamentals.

Although Broner has lost every time he's stepped up to face A-level competition very few observers, if any, would consider Vargas to be an A-level fighter. (Vargas himself has lost the two times he's stepped up to face A-level competition.) To be fair, Broner was reasonably competitive in his most recent loss vs. Garcia, losing a few rounds that were actually fairly close. Most of the rounds Broner lost in that fight (as well as most of the rounds he lost in his two previous losses to Maidana and Porter) were due to essentially being forced to box off his back foot (i.e., box while backing up) in deference to his opponent's high-level punching power and effective aggression. One would think Broner will be more aggressive and take more risks vs. Vargas - a fighter with a career TKO/KO percentage of only 33% (10 wins by TKO or KOsin 30 career fights) who doesn't have anywhere near the punching power of any of the fighters Broner has lost to previously.

Vargas is a scrappy, but somewhat predictable fighter who boxes mostly behind a straightforward (though solid) jab and basic 1-2 punch combinations. He comes into this fight with a 4" height and 2" reach advantage but has shown in previous fights a willingness to give up his height and reach advantage to fight inside, which could easily be to Broner's advantage given his superior hand speed, accuracy, and power.

Broner, in my opinion, is the fighter more likely to easily adjust to the 144-lb catchweight for this fight; he's fought 7 of his last 8 fights over the past 4 years below 144 lbs. Vargas, on the other hand, hasn't fought below welterweight (147 lbs) since 2014 so may be more prone to feeling the effects of weight drain coming into fight night. (It was in fact Broner who requested the catchweight for this fight, presumably to gain an advantage on Vargas who is more accustomed at the higher weight limit.)

Overall, I see Broner as the superior, more talented boxer who is well aware that a loss here would likely be the most devastating of his career and perhaps permanently end any consideration of him as a top-level fighter. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Broner, fighting for the first time under new trainer Kevin Cunningham, put on a strong performance and get the win here - especially as the "A-side" of this boxing promotion in front of what I expect to be a pro-Broner crowd in NYC. (Vargas is a West Coast fighter who casual boxing fans on the East Coast are largely unfamiliar with.)

But while I think there are more reasons than not that Broner *should* win, I'm picking Vargas to win this fight. Despite Broner's (numerous) advantages, I think the key to this fight will be punch activity; Vargas is actually a more active puncher than Mikey Garcia, who outworked Broner in Broner's most recent fight by throwing nearly twice as many punches despite being the naturally smaller boxer. I rate Vargas as a slightly more talented version of Adrian Granados - a fighter with a pedestrian resume who Broner barely beat by split decision last year in his hometown of Cincinnati (despite getting decisively outworked by Granados, who threw nearly 300 more punches than Broner). Broner has consistently demonstrated issues with punch (in)activity throughout his career vs. even mediocre opponents and has a proven habit of fighting down to his level of opposition; I fully expect Vargas to be the aggressor and outwork Broner as most of his recent opponents have done. Note that in the past, Vargas has gotten the benefit of a few very close, controversial decisions largely by outworking his opponent (see his fights vs. Josesito Lopez and Wale Omotoso as prime examples); a matchup vs. a relatively punch-selective Broner is another fight where Vargas has stands a good chance of eking out a victory on the judges' scorecards based on activity if the fight happens to be close either way.

Vargas doesn't have Broner's quickness or defensive abilities, but is skilled enough to stay out of real trouble vs. a typically risk-averse Broner who I think at the end of the day will stay true to his usual form and not take too many chances in this fight. It's also worth noting that the impressive power Broner demonstrated at lower weights earlier in his career hasn't carried up as well to higher weight classes; at below 140 lbs Broner is undefeated and boasts an 85% TKO/KO percentage (22 KOs in 26 fights). In his 4 fights above 140 lbs, Broner is 2-2 with no wins by TKO or KO.

As mentioned previously Vargas, like Broner, has yet to defeat an A-level opponent. However he was reasonably competitive vs. Bradley (who he arguably came close to stopping near the end of the 12th round of their fight) and Pacquiao (where one judge had him losing by only a single point), and earned an impressive 9th round stoppage victory vs. then undefeated Sadam Ali, who is currently the light middleweight champion of the world after beating future hall-of-fame fighter Miguel Cotto (in what was promoted as the final fight of Cotto's career) by unanimous decision. (So Vargas has stepped up and generally fought well vs. high-level opposition despite losing most of those fights.)

As shown with some of his antics leading up to the fight - which included confrontations with the lead promoter of the event, other fighters on the card, and even a Brooklyn-based rapper - Broner appears to lack professionalism and seriousness in his prefight preparations. Broner has actually performed below expectations in nearly every fight he's fought since his impressive TKO victory over then WBC lightweight champion Antonio DeMarco in 2012 - including even the fights he's won. I like Broner personally but see little to indicate that things will change vs. Vargas despite the obvious importance of this fight to his career.

I see Vargas's work rate and typical scrappiness vs. Broner's efficient but low-volume, reluctant-to-take-risk style resulting in a close fight that likely goes Vargas's way. I can't see Vargas stopping a tough-chinned Broner (who's fairly solid defensively and has never really come close to being stopped in his career), so see the best bet on this fight as Vargas to win by decision - which can currently be found as high as +135 on Bookmaker.

 At the end of the day, this fight is less predictable than most given that 1) this is the first fight of Broner's professional career under new trainer Kevin Cunningham (thus difficult to anticipate whether the new trainer will positively or negatively impact Broner's performance), 2) the fight will be fought at a 144-lb catchweight (again, difficult to predict the impact the catchweight will have on each fighter though, as mentioned above, I suspect the catchweight will favor Broner), and 3) both fighters have been relatively inactive recently, each having fought only once in the past 14 months.

But in many ways this is an even matchup featuring clashing styles which should make for an interesting and entertaining fight no matter who emerges victorious.I'll be at this fight Saturday night and looking forward to see what unfolds!

Prediction: Vargas by decision

Recommended bet(s): 1) Vargas by 12 round decision (1 unit) 

2) Broner/Vargas goes the full 12 round distance (.33 unit)

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Canelo vs. Chavez Jr.: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (48-1-1 34 KOs) vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (50-2-1, 32 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 6, 2017
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs - though fight is being fought at a catchweight of 164.5 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez: -545, Chavez: +465 (5 Dimes, 5/6/17)
Purse: Alvarez: $5 million, Chavez: $3 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #8 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Chavez: Not ranked
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Chavez: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

This fight might be the most anticipated (and most hyped) matchup between two Mexican boxers in the history of the sport - it's certainly is the most anticipated matchup between two boxers of Mexican heritage since the first Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. vs. Oscar De La Hoya fight back in 1996.

Canelo - considered by many one of the best pound-for-pound boxers in the sport - is currently the most popular boxer in Mexico (not to mention probably the top PPV attraction in all of boxing right now) and attracts Superbowl-like ratings in his home country every time he fights. (Most notably his 2013 fight vs. Floyd Mayweather, which we received the highest rating for a boxing event in the history of Mexican television with nearly 80 percent of televisions in Mexico tuned in to see the fight.) Chavez is the son (and namesake) of the most - never mind boxer - athlete in the history of Mexico in Julio Cesar Chavez Sr., a former six-time world champion in three weight classes who is considered by most to be the greatest Mexican boxer of all time. On name alone, Chavez has been a wildly popular boxer in his home country and is still one of the biggest draws in boxing even today - despite not looking particularly impressive in recent fights.

A few years ago this fight could've potentially been promoted as a mega fight but as it stands now the fight is still one of the top 3 or 4 fights between active boxers that could've been made in terms of expected revenue generation.

At -545, Canelo is the strong favorite, but the 164.5 catchweight in this fight nearly 10 pounds higher than any weight limit he's fought at previously. If Canelo wins this fight at this higher weight -particularly if he wins convincingly - the fight that looms more than ever before would be the highly anticipated matchup with middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin. (There would be zero excuses for avoiding a matchup with Golovkin at 160 lbs after defeating Chavez at 164.5 lbs - though the fight may be more appealing to Canelo at this point anyway given Golovkin's troubles in his narrow victory last March vs. Danny Jacobs.)

But if Chavez, whose reputation amongst Mexican and non-Mexican boxing fans alike has diminished considerably due to lackluster performances in recent years (which included a stoppage loss to Andrzej Fonfara in 2015 in which Chavez quit in the 9th round shortly after getting knocked down) and his perceived lack of work ethic, pulls off the upset his tarnished reputation would largely be redeemed and his popularity would receive an enormous boost - likely setting up big PPV fights for him in the near future.

This also happens to be a fight between the only two Mexican-born fighters to have won middleweight world championships. There is a genuine dislike between the two Mexican opponents so this is a fight both will desperately be trying to win - not only for the legacy achieved in winning what is arguably the biggest fight in the history of Mexican boxing but for the satisfaction of one-upping the other in what has become a very bitter and personal rivalry.

Why Canelo Alvarez will win

Despite this fight being contested at a 164.5-lb catchweight, Canelo is actually the current WBO light middleweight (154 lbs) champion and is widely considered one of the best boxers pound-for-pound in the sport. Canelo has held world titles in two weight divisions (light middleweight and middleweight), including being a former unified light middleweight champion, as well as being the lineal and WBC middleweight champion in recent years before vacating the title. The only loss of Canelo's professional career came in 2013 vs. pound-for-pound legend Floyd Mayweather Jr., who is considered by most to be the best boxer of this generation.

Canelo is a solid favorite in this matchup vs. Chavez for a multitude of straightforward reasons. By observation of nearly everyone who follows the sport closely, Canelo is the more talented, more technically skilled, more accurate punching, and higher IQ boxer with faster hands, superior footwork, and better defensive abilities. Canelo is an elite A/A- level boxer in the prime of his career (and seemingly still improving a bit with each fight) facing a fighter in Chavez who, at 31 years old (4.5 years older than Canelo), appears to be past his prime and has never in his career even come close to proving he has the elite-level skills of his revered father.  

Canelo has fought mostly at light middleweight (154 lbs) in recent years but he is a big light middleweight whose power should translate fine to the 164.5 catchweight. Although known as a big puncher (Canelo's won 3 out of his last for fights by KO and has a career KO% of 68%), Canelo is an intelligent, patient boxer who - per CompuBox statistics - is one of the most efficient fighters in the sport. Canelo sets up and throws combination punches very well and is an excellent body puncher - one shouldn't be at all surprised if the largely flat-footed, defensively suspect Chavez presents a fairly easy target for Canelo's offensive attack for much of the fight. Note that Chavez's height (6'1") may prove to be a disadvantage in this fight as it will likely provide the 5'9" Canelo a larger body frame to target, particularly when fighting inside. (Shorter fighters also often have easier angles from which to attack the body when facing taller fighters, who may find it awkward to have to punch down to target their shorter opponent.)

Despite being widely criticized for possibly avoiding a potential fight with feared power puncher Gennady Golovkin (which included being ridiculed by some of his own Mexican fanbase), Canelo has - at just 26 years of age - amassed one of the more impressive resumes in boxing, having fought (and beaten) elite and/or high profile former world champions such as Amir Khan, Miguel Cotto, Erislandy Lara, Shane Mosley, and Austin Trout. (This is in addition to fighting undefeated and pound-for-pound #1 Floyd Mayweather when he was only 23 years old.) Chavez's resume is sketchy in comparison, with his only fight vs. an A-level opponent coming in his September 2012 unanimous decision loss to Sergio Martinez, a fight which was not competitive (and which he arguably lost every round) until the 12th round when he knocked down and nearly stopped Martinez. Chavez's best win came immediately prior to the Martinez fight in a TKO victory vs. Andy Lee, a B-level fighter with good power, but whose skills aren't on the same level as Canelo's. (It should be noted that Chavez was losing the fight to Lee on all three judges' scorecards at the time of the stoppage.)

Chavez is the bigger, more physically imposing fighter who has experience fighting at a weight limit exceeding 170 lbs in the light heavyweight division but he has a plodding, relatively straightforward fighting style that likely won't be difficult for Canelo to anticipate; Canelo's defensive footwork and upper body movement are deceptively slick and have improved significantly since the early stages of his career.

As a big light middleweight, Canelo is expected to adjust to the 164.5 catchweight just fine; Chavez, who has a well documented history of failing to make weight at limits as high as 168 lbs, may experience weight-drain issues which may significantly affect his performance Saturday night.

Saturday's fight, considered one of the biggest in the history of Mexican boxing, will take place on Cinco de Mayo weekend in a sold out T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas in front of mostly Mexican-American and Mexican fans. Although Chavez Jr. is still a very popular Mexican boxer, the crowd is expected to be largely pro-Canelo, which could influence the fight inside the ring as well as the judges' scoring outside the ring. Judges' scorecards in Canelo fights have tended to strongly favor Canelo - even in fights considered close by the general public. (See the scoring in Canelo's recent competitive fights vs. Cotto, Lara, and Austin Trout as examples.) Even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw; so if this fight ends up being much more competitive than expected (which could happen if, for example, Canelo doesn't carry the extra weight as well as expected) don't be at all surprised to see the fight still scored comfortably for Canelo. 

Why Julio Cesar Chavez will win

Chavez comes into tonight's fight as a significant (+465) underdog but there are solid reasons to believe he can be very competitive and perhaps pull off the upset vs. Canelo.

Chavez is the naturally bigger fighter and has (much) more experience at weights exceeding the 154 lb light middleweight limit than Canelo. (Chavez is expected to come into tonight's fight 15-20 lbs heavier than Canelo.) Chavez's size combined with his solid power could prove to be a bit much for the smaller Canelo, whose own power - which is amongst the best at 154 lbs - may not carry up to the 164.5 lb catchweight limit as well as most expect. This will be the first fight of Canelo's professional career above a 155 lb weight limit; given the nearly 10 pound jump in weight, Canelo's skill and hand speed advantages may not be able to overcome the size disparity, especially given that Canelo - who is a bit flat-footed - will have to fight toe-to-toe at close range vs. Chavez's inside pressure-fighting style for large stretches of the fight.

Chavez is an aggressive, come-forward fighter with good power at middleweight. Like his father, Chavez is a very good (and relentless) fighter on the inside, particularly to the body where left hooks and right uppercuts are his most effective punches. Despite the criticism of his work ethic outside of the ring, Chavez has a good work rate inside the ring and possesses good stamina, whereas Canelo is known for sometimes taking rounds off and tiring in the later rounds of fights. One has to wonder whether Canelo's power and skill will be effective at the higher weight or if the larger Chavez be able to wear him down in the later rounds behind a body attack from close range.

Chavez doesn't possess the all-time great talent or skills of his legendary father, but many underrate him as a fighter. Chavez is a former WBC middleweight champion who has beaten former middleweight champions such as Andy Lee, Marco Antonio Rubio, and Sebastian Zbik. Again, Chavez's most impressive victory was likely his 7th round TKO victory vs. Lee, who no one ould consider an elite fighter, but is currently rated a top 5 middleweight in the world by Ring Magazine and BoxRec.com. Chavez's only two losses of his professional career came in 2012 vs. then #3 pound-for-pound fighter Sergio Martinez and in 2015 vs. Andrzej Fonfara in a light heavyweight division fight that was two weight classes above his normal fighting weight.

Chavez's defense has been suspect but he may still have one of the better chins in boxing. Two years ago, Chavez suffered the only knockdown (and ensuing stoppage loss) of his career vs. Fonfara (a fighter with a non-impressive 50% TKO/KO percentage), but that was in his first and only fight at light heavyweight - two weight divisions above the middleweight division he has fought in for nearly his entire career. (Prior to this loss, Chavez's chin was considered to be one of the elite chins in boxing.) Canelo has excellent power at light middleweight but it remains to be seen how well that power carries up to the 164.5 catchweight for this fight; Chavez was stopped for the first time in his career vs. a light heavyweight in Fonfara but I expect his chin to hold up well vs. Canelo, who - despite the power and accuracy with which he throws punches - is a bit small relative to Fonfara,

Chavez is being trained in this fight by legendary trainer Nacho Beristain, a 2006 International Boxing Hall of Fame inductee who has trained 27 world champions, including Ricardo Lopez, Juan Manuel Marquez, Oscar De La Hoya, and Abner Mares. This is Chavez's first fight training under Beristain; it is expected that Beristain will be able to correct at least some of Chavez's technical flaws and concoct a game plan that has a chance of keeping Chavez competitive in the fight. Chavez is also using Memo Heredia as his strength and conditioning coach; Heredia is noted for assisting Juan Manuel Marquez and Jorge Arce in regaining world championship titles in their 30s (most notably Marquez after his 6th round KO of Manny Pacquiao in December 2012).

Overall, Canelo holds nearly all of the advantages related to skill and athleticism, but Chavez is the bigger fighter (in terms of not only size but 5" height advantage and 3" reach advantage) who at his best is very effective at wearing smaller opponents down with pressure and a relentless body attack. Canelo is almost certainly the superior boxer pound-for-pound but the nearly 10-pound jump in weight for this fight might be Canelo biting off a bit more than he can chew.

Prefight Analysis

I think Chavez has a better chance at winning this fight than most think. Canelo is big in size for the light middleweight division he's fought in for most of his career but the nearly 10 lb jump in weight for this fight (which effectively amounts to a one and a half weight class jump) to fight at 164.5 pounds for the first time in his career vs. a tough fighter in Chavez - who has much more experience fighting in this weight range and may come into tonight's fight 15-20 pounds heavier than Canelo - is a daunting task.

Canelo is the more skilled fighter for sure, but he's been bigger and stronger than just about every opponent he's faced in his professional career. That won't be the case Saturday night vs. an opponent in Chavez who will come in several pounds heavier, have the clear height and reach advantage, and arguably has comparable power at the higher weight.

Chavez's size combined with a solid chin - along with what appears to be a renewed sense of work ethic and discipline for this huge fight (unlike many of his recent fights Chavez easily made weight for this fight and most reports indicate he's trained as hard as he's ever trained for a fight under new trainer Beristain) make him a tough nut to crack in this matchup. You'd have to question whether Canelo can effectively pressure a larger fighter with a good chin who will come into the fight as essentially a cruiserweight (i.e., is expected to come into the fight at between 180-190 lbs on fight night) - especially given Canelo's patient, relatively low-output style and tendency to slow down a bit in the later rounds.

It wouldn't be all that surprising to see a motivated Chavez - who really is fighting for his legacy and to salvage his tarnished reputation - wear down the smaller, somewhat flat-footed Canelo in the later rounds with an accumulation of body punches. Chavez has tended to have problems in previous fights with fighters who move well and box effectively on their feet - Canelo is a non-elusive fighter who will be right in front of Chavez for significant stretches of the fight.

But I think the skill and talent disparity between Canelo and Chavez is too great to pick Chavez here. Canelo is a legitimate elite pound-for-pound fighter in the prime of his career who, at 26 years old, is only getting better while Chavez is elite in name only and, at 31 years old, possibly has his best days behind him. Canelo's power may not be as effective as expected at the higher weight class but his hand speed, accuracy, and overall boxing skills are such that it would be very surprising if he didn't outbox and outpoint the slower, defensively-flawed Chavez. (I'd expect Chavez to essentially be target practice for an efficient power puncher like Canelo - especially in the early and middle rounds.
Chavez is the bigger fighter who is particularly effective at fighting inside, but I think Canelo's defense (which has improved throughout his career and seems to still be improving) vs. Chavez's slower, somewhat predictable attack will be good enough to largely mitigate Chavez's size advantage.

I see Canelo landing mostly at will and decisively outpointing Chavez in this fight - the only question is whether Canelo's power will be effective enough at the higher weight class to get the stoppage. Here, I do think Chavez's size advantage, sturdy chin, and strong desire not to embarrass himself in front of the hundreds of millions of Mexican fans who will be watching the fight - along with Canelo's tendency to tire in later rounds - will result in Chavez lasting the distance. Chavez has only been stopped once by a light heavyweight (Fonfara) in a fight he didn't appear prepared for; I don't think the middleweight-sized Canelo will get the stoppage here.

Given that I think there is a strong probability Chavez lasts the distance I think the best value on this fight is betting Canelo to win by 12-round decision, currently priced at +150 (or, preferably, Canelo to win by 12-round unanimous decision if you can find that bet). I see Chavez lasting the full 12 rounds but ultimately don't see his size advantage and ability to break down opponents inside overcoming Canelo's efficient punching and fairly significant advantages in skill, athleticism, and boxing IQ.

Either way I'll be at this fight and am looking forward to (what should be a super-electric) atmosphere almost as much as the fight itself!!!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bet:
Canelo by decision (1.5 units)

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Canelo vs. Khan: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (46-1-1, 32 KOs) vs. Amir Khan (31-3, 19 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 7, 2016
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 155 lbs
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Middleweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez -475, Khan +420 (5 Dimes, 5/7/16)
Purse: Alvarez: $3.5 million, Khan: $2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Khan: #2 ranked welterweight
Style: Canelo: Orthodox, Khan: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

Canelo vs. Khan is (by far) the biggest fight of the year thus far and is the first boxing event at MGM Resorts' brand new T-Mobile Arena, which just opened in April. This will be Canelo's first middleweight title defense after defeating Miguel Cotto last November for the WBC, Ring Magazine, and lineal middleweight titles. Will this fight be the precursor to a megafight with Gennady Golovkin later this year or early 2017? Can Canelo decisively defeat a fighter in Khan who - by most accounts - is the more technically skilled fighter with a clear hand and foot speed advantage? In the recent past, Canelo has had issues with mobile fighters like Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Erislandy Lara; Khan is generally considered quicker than both.

This is the first PPV fight for Khan and stands a good chance of being the defining fight of his career; can Khan become only the 5th boxer in history to win a major world title in his first fight after jumping up two weight classes (Roberto Duran, Roy Jones Jr., Robert Guerrero, Adrien Broner) and the first to do so in the middleweight division? If Khan beats Canelo, he would become only the 2nd boxer to win a lineal championship in his first fight after jumping up two divisions (Duran) - that would be an extremely impressive feat even considering the fight is being fought at a catchweight of 155 lbs.

Why Canelo Alvarez will win

There are many reasons why Canelo is around a 5-1 favorite to win this fight.

Canelo is the younger, stronger boxer (and in fact is likely the strongest boxer Khan has ever faced) facing a boxer in Khan who has a notorious history of chin (as well as other fundamental defensive) problems resulting in him being knocked down and/or knocked out multiple times by lesser punchers than Canelo. Canelo is the naturally bigger boxer fighting in a weight range he is comfortable at (150-155 lbs) and has been fighting at for over five years while Khan is moving up two weight classes to fight at 155 lbs for the first time after fighting his entire career at 140 and 147. Khan has pretty good power but how his power will translate after moving up two weight classes is a huge question mark, especially against a bigger fighter like Canelo who has proven to have a very good chin. (Canelo has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career.)

Canelo is in his prime and appears to still be improving with each fight. Although known and marketed as a big puncher, Canelo is a (very) high IQ, skilled boxer who, per CompuBox statistics, is one of the most efficient fighters in the sport. He is a patient, but highly accurate puncher who throws combination punches in particular very well. Canelo is also an excellent body puncher who will likely make it a point to attack Khan's body throughout the course of the fight. Khan is very mobile but it will be nearly impossible for him to elude Canelo's aggressive accuracy and power for a full 12 rounds - especially given his penchant for staying at inside distance a bit too long while executing his quick combinations.

Canelo cuts off the ring pretty well for someone not too fleet of foot (he had success cutting off the ring vs. Lara in spots) and, while not quite as fast as Khan, has very underrated hand speed.

No one would consider Canelo a defensive wizard but his defense - in particular his upper body and head movement - have noticeably improved in recent fights. Canelo has also never been knocked down or knocked out in his career, which has included many fights vs. boxers much bigger and stronger than Khan. It's tough to envision Khan - who is fighting at middleweight for the first time in his career after spending his entire career at junior welterweight and welterweight - posing a threat to Canelo in terms of punching power.

On Cinco de Mayo weekend in Las Vegas, the crowd at the new T-Mobile Arena will be decidedly pro-Canelo, which could influence the fight inside the ring (i.e., inspiration for Canelo to fight well in front of a largely Mexican/Mexican-American crowd) and the judging outside the ring. Judges' scorecards in Canelo fights have tended to strongly favor Canelo - even in fights considered close by the general public. (See the scoring in Canelo's recent competitive fights vs. Cotto, Lara, and Austin Trout as examples.) Even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw; so if this fight ends up being much more competitive than expected (which is highly possible given Khan's outstanding offensive skill and advantage in speed) don't be at all surprised to see the fight still scored comfortably for Canelo. 

Why Amir Khan will win

Despite the clear strength and size discrepancies, Khan does have some advantages over Canelo which could lead to an upset.

Khan is a very gifted offensive fighter with some of the fastest hands in boxing. He is considered by many to be the more technically skilled boxer in this matchup and enters tonight's fight vs. Canelo with a clear hand and foot speed advantage. Khan does have a well documented history of chin problems - 2 of his 3 losses have come via early round KO to fighters who were considered significant underdogs - but his defensive discipline and movement appear to have at least improved a bit in the 3.5 years he's trained under Virgil Hunter. If Khan can move intelligently and maintain range vs. Canelo through 12 rounds, he has a strong chance of outboxing Canelo with his speed and winning the fight on points.

Khan has arguably never been outboxed in his professional career, with all of his losses coming by either early round KO (Breidis Prescott, Danny Garcia) or by a very controversial split decision which included multiple questionable point deductions (Lamont Peterson). If Khan keeps the fight outside at a manageable distance, I'd expect the generally high-output, jab-happy Khan to outwork the relatively low-output, patient Canelo with his advantages in speed, reach (Khan possesses a slight 1/2" reach advantage), and skill.

Like Canelo, Khan is also an accurate puncher who attacks the body very well; Canelo has experienced stamina issues in the past and is prone to taking stretches of rounds off as a pacing mechanism so if Khan can effectively attack Canelo's body, he could weaken Canelo's punching power in the later rounds, where many are expecting Canelo to catch up to Khan and knock him out.

As an experienced and (arguably) more skilled boxer, no one should be surprised if there are large stretches of tonight's fight where Khan flat-out outboxes Canelo - especially in the early rounds. Canelo's defense has improved in recent fights but an ultra-quick offensive talent like Khan likely won't find it too difficult (as a comparatively quick Mayweather didn't) in spots to land punches vs. a somewhat flat-footed Canelo.

Although no longer undefeated or considered a top 5 pound-for-pound boxer (as he was a few years ago when he was a unified junior welterweight champion and defended his title five times over the course of two years), at age 29 Khan is still in his prime and still one of the best offensive fighters in the sport. Khan has nearly always jumped out to wide early leads due to his unique combination of skill and speed; the question in this fight is simply whether he (and his very questionable chin) will be able to elude danger for a full 12 rounds vs. a bigger, stronger, top-level power puncher in Canelo - especially given that he's jumped up two weight classes and fighting for the first time as a middleweight.

Win or lose, Khan always fights with tremendous heart and determination (though this is sometimes to his detriment, as clearly seen in the fights he's lost by KO). Tonight's fight is by far the biggest of Khan's career - it's his first PPV fight, biggest payday, and first fight where he's coming in as the underdog so everyone watching should expect an extremely focused, highly determined Khan in the ring Saturday night. 

Prefight Analysis

If chin and size weren't an issue, I'd probably take Khan to win this fight.

I generally agree with the sentiment that Khan has never been outboxed and think that, while Canelo's hand speed is underrated, Khan should be able to consistently beat Canelo to the punch and stay out of range vs. the relatively slow-footed Canelo and his dangerous punching power. Canelo has sometimes had trouble cutting off the ring vs. more mobile opponents; there's a good possibility he'll have similar problems vs. Khan, who is likely the fastest opponent he's ever faced. 

Khan's defensive deficiencies notwithstanding, if Khan stays out of the corner of the ring (where he is at much greater risk of getting pummeled) and picks the right spots to throw his quick combinations he can outwork and outpoint the at times low-volume and overly patient Canelo. Again, the question would be how much success Khan will have eluding Canelo's pressure and accurate punching power for 12 rounds.

Though I believe Khan to be an elite offensive fighter with overall better skills than Canelo, there are several reasons why I strongly favor Canelo to win this fight. Firstly, the size disparity will be too much for Khan to overcome. Khan is moving up two weight classes to fight for the first time as a middleweight; while the weight jump is effectively only eight pounds (147 lbs to 155 lbs), there is expected to be a wide size discrepancy between Khan and the naturally bigger Canelo (who typically balloons to well over 170 lbs) on fight night. Canelo will be (by far) the biggest fighter and strongest puncher Khan has ever fought, while it is doubtful Khan's solid power at 147 lbs will translate well at the higher weight class vs. a fighter in Canelo who has already proven his chin vs. bigger fighters than Khan. There is also a question of how Khan's speed - his primary advantage in the fight - will be affected by the higher weight.

Secondly Khan's chin will likely mot be able to elude Canelo - one of the more accurate and efficient punchers in the sport - for 12 rounds. Khan has been knocked out in early rounds vs. lesser punchers at junior welterweight (140 lbs) and welterweight (147 lbs); there's little reason to think Khan won't suffer the same - or even a worse - fate vs. a bigger, stronger power puncher in Canelo. Khan's defense does appear to have improved a bit in his 3.5 years under trainer Virgil Hunter (e.g., he's decreased exposure to his chin by staying off the ropes more and spending less time inside throwing the multi-punch combinations that put him in poor defensive positions) but it should also be noted that Khan's chin hasn't really been tested in recent fights - he hasn't faced a good puncher since fighting Julio Diaz four fights ago in 2013; Khan won a close decision in that fight but Diaz did score a 4th round knockdown.

Sure, Canelo has had difficulty with faster fighters in the recent past, most notably Mayweather and Lara, but Mayweather is one of the best defensive fighters in the history of the sport and Lara is one of the best defensive fighters today. Both Mayweather and Lara are elite, high IQ boxers who understanding spacing and were able to elude Canelo with their length and vertical movement even while at close range. Khan is actually faster than both Mayweather and Lara but does not move as well or have the defensive IQ of either fighter. Khan still has issues with staying inside a bit too long and still has subpar upper body movement, meaning he'll likely be easier to hit when Canelo (inevitably) catches up to him. In recent fights, Khan has sometimes been able to avoid pressure by clinching or pushing off on his opponents - it will be much tougher to do this vs. a bigger opponent in Canelo.

In his most recent fight, Khan surprisingly even had issues defensively vs. the soft-punching Chris Algieri at welterweight so tough to see Khan not having a much worse time of it vs. one of the better punchers in the sport.

Even if Khan is somehow able to maintain distance vs. Canelo and box effectively with him for 12 rounds, there is still the issue of whether Khan will get a fair score as the "B-side" of the boxing promotion on Cinco De Mayo weekend in front of a largely Mexican/Mexican-American crowd. Khan throws a lot of punches and could outwork the typically low-volume Canelo but - fair or not - Canelo has a judge-friendly style due largely to his aggression and tendency to land clean, accurate power punches. So even if Khan outboxes Canelo (which is a possibility), there is a decent chance Canelo still gets the decision.

But given Khan's size deficiency, chin issues, and fundamental defensive flaws, I don't see this fight going 12 rounds anyway. I expect Canelo to eventually figure out Khan's timing, catch up to him in the mid to late rounds, and score a TKO/KO victory vs. an opponent who's perhaps bit off a bit more than he can chew by moving up to middleweight to fight Canelo.

Prediction: Canelo by TKO/KO (1.5 units)

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Pacquiao vs. Algieri: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Manny Pacquiao (56-5-2, 38 KOs) vs. Chris Algieri (20-0-0, 8 KOs)
Location: Cotai Arena, The Venetian Macau, Macau, China
Date: November 22, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs - fight is being held at 144lb catchweight)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Pacquiao -630, Algieri +520 (5 Dimes, 11/22/14)
Purse: Pacquiao: $25 million, Algieri: $1.675 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao - #4 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked welterweight), Algieri - #3 ranked light welterweight
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Algieri: Orthodox
Referee: Genaro Rodriguez

Positives for Pacquiao
Negatives for Pacquiao
Positives for Algieri
Negatives for Algieri
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Pacquiao

• Although he has (arguably) slipped somewhat, Pacquiao is still one of the elite fighters in the sport (ranked #4 pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine). Pacquiao still has much of the blazing hand speed and explosive power that made him a boxing icon. Future first ballot hall-of-famer who is alongside Floyd Mayweather as one of the top two fighters of this generation. 
• Ambush fighter who is adept at moving in on his opponents and using his excellent hand speed to land clean, powerful combinations, then using foot speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter. Although past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite speed and footwork and will have a clear hand and foot speed advantage going into this fight vs. Algieri.
• Pacquiao hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over 5 years (8 fights; last TKO/KO win was 12th round TKO of Miguel Cotto in November 2009) but still has KO power in both hands. Scored two knockdowns in his December 2012 fight vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and appeared on the verge of a KO victory before getting caught with a counter right hand near the end of the 6th round that ended the fight.
• Unpredictable, tricky fighter who often throws punches from awkward angles, making it very difficult for even skilled defensive fighters to anticipate where the punches are coming from. Manny's best punch is his straight left hand, which was especially effective for him in both fights vs. Timothy Bradley. Despite some defensive flaws, has excellent head movement, which can make him difficult to hit cleanly.
• Pacquiao has had great success in the past vs. taller fighters with a significant reach advantage (see his fights. vs. 5'11" Antonio Margarito and 5'10" Oscar De La Hoya who were both dominated by Pacquiao despite the height and 5" reach advantage). Shorter fighters can often be elusive for taller fighters as taller fighters may have to bend over and shoot punches at angles to catch their opponents.
• How much has Pacquiao really slipped over his past few fights? The vast majority of boxing fans felt Pacquiao won both fights vs. Bradley convincingly. In his most recent fight vs. Marquez, Pacquiao was clearly winning the fight; knocking Marquez down twice and appearing to be on his way towards a KO victory before Marquez ended the fight with a sneaky right hand. In Pacquiao's last fight vs. Brandon Rios, Pacquiao arguably won all 12 rounds. (One judge in the Rios fight did score all 12 rounds for Pacquiao.) 
• Experienced fighter whose defense and technical skills have improved over the years under HOF trainer Freddie Roach. Arguably outboxed Bradley in both of their fights and Marquez in their most recent fight despite taking losses in two out of the three fights. Despite slightly diminished power and speed is less reckless and displays higher boxing IQ now than he did in his prime. Will come into this fight with a clear advantage in experience vs. Algieri, who has previously only fought in one world title fight and never fought a pro fight outside the New York City metropolitan area. In his HOF career, Pacquiao has already dominated and/or knocked out much tougher opponents than Algieri.
• The crowd at the Venetian in Macau will be overwhelmingly pro-Pacquiao. Pacquiao, arguably the greatest Asian fighter in the history of the sport, will be fighting in front of a mostly Asian crowd. Pacquiao's trainer Freddie Roach is also popular in China as he is the current trainer of wildly popular Chinese boxer (and current WBO International Flyweight champion and two-time Olympic gold medalist) Zhou Shiming (who will be fighting on the undercard that same night). Fighting in Asia, it is unlikely the relatively unknown Algieri will get a decision victory vs. Pacquiao unless he clearly dominates the fight. 
• Unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big PPV fights.

Negatives for Pacquiao

• Pacquiao is 35 years old (more than 5 years older than Algieri) and, while still an elite fighter, has lost some of the power, speed, and quickness he had in his prime. Pacquiao has lost two out of his last four fights and hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over half a decade (8 fights). Generally, boxers who rely on hand speed, quickness, and other athletic abilities don't age as well as pure technical boxers.
• Though inexperienced. Pacquiao's opponent Algieri is an undefeated, highly confident world champion currently in the prime of his career. As he showed in his most recent fight vs. Provodnikov, Algieri is tough and resilient; many knowledgeable boxing fans feel he has the boxing skills to pull off the upset vs. the aging Pacquiao.
• Pacquiao is fighting at both a significant height and reach disadvantage vs. a very skilled boxer in Algieri. Despite Manny's significant speed advantage, Algieri's range and above average mobility may make it difficult for Manny to land clean punches.
• Pacquiao is an excellent ambush fighter who boxes very well when coming towards his opponents but does not fight nearly as well when fighting backing up on his feet. Algieri has a fairly powerful, accurate jab which, when combined with his reach advantage, can back Pacquiao into positions where he won't be able to fight as effectively. If Algieri is as effective with his jab as he was vs. Provodnikov, this fight could be competitive. 
• While Pacquiao's defense has improved over the years with Freddie Roach, Pacquiao is far from a defensive mastermind. Pacquiao's aggression and awkward punching style often leaves him out-of-position, subjecting him to clean counter punching (as seen multiple times in his KO loss vs. Marquez and in the early rounds of his most recent fight vs. Bradley). Pacquiao also isn't as mobile and doesn't roll with punches quite as well as he did in his prime. If he can survive the early rounds, Algieri is a solid, savvy counter puncher who is capable of making the necessary adjustments to exploit Pacquiao's defensive flaws in spots.
• Pacquiao's significant distractions outside the ring have been well-publicized. Pacquiao is a full-time Congressman in the Phillipines when he's not boxing and as a recently born-again Christian, has made numerous lifestyle changes. Pacquiao is also the (part-time) head coach and player for the Kia Sorentos, a basketball team in the Philippine Basketball Association, the top basketball league in the Phillipines. Pacquiao also has a long-term goal of being President of the Phillipines. Is his heart still really in boxing? With all his distractions, Pacquiao could easily overlook a very tough, solid fighter in Algieri and come into this fight unprepared.

Positives for Algieri

• Current WBO light welterweight champion. Very tough, resilient fighter with high boxing IQ and solid all-around boxing skills. Algieri is undefeated in 20 professional fights and has beaten proven fighters such as Emmanuel Taylor (who lost a close decision to Adrien Broner in his most recent fight) and former WBO light welterweight champion Ruslan Provodnikov. Highly confident fighter who truly believes he will win this fight.
• Tall, long fighter who throws combinations well and is especially accurate with his jabs and lead right punch. Is generally a counter puncher who has good speed and fights well off his back foot. Algieri's solid jab was key in his recent upset win vs. Provodnikov; opponents with solid jabs have often used the jab with good success vs. Pacquiao (see Bradley, Marquez, and Erik Morales's fights vs. Pacquiao). 
• Algieri is 30 years old - five years younger than Pacquiao. At 5'11" with a 72" reach, Algieri possesses a 4" height and 5" reach advantage vs. Pacquiao; although Pacquiao has in the past had success vs. taller, longer fighters, Algieri may have the speed and savvy to use his height and reach to his advantage. Despite fighting at lower weight classes than Pacquiao (Algieri currently competes at 140 lbs), Algieri is the naturally bigger man and will likely come in to the fight with the weight advantage.   
• Technically skilled boxer with the ability to adjust to his opponent's style over the course of a fight. Made effective adjustments in his most recent fight vs. Provodnikov after being knocked down twice in the 1st round to pull off the upset victory.
• Extremely well conditioned fighter with good endurance. Algieri works professionally as nutritionist and personal trainer and has a master's degree in clinical nutrition.
• Gritty boxer who also has experience as a kick boxer; was an undefeated world kickboxing champion before retiring to become a professional boxer.

Negatives for Algieri

• Algieri is undefeated (20-0) as a pro but has not fought anything close to the elite level of competition Pacquiao has. Algieri's toughest opponents to date have been a solid B-level fighter in Emmanuel Taylor (over whom he scored a competitive but clear unanimous decision victory) and a one-dimensional power puncher in Ruslan Provodnikov, over whom he scored a highly debatable split decision win. (I scored the fight 116-110 for Provodnikov.) It's highly possible Algieri is in way over his head vs. Pacquiao, an all-time great who has significantly more experience, talent, and skill than anyone he has ever fought.
• Algieri moves well and has good hand and foot speed but Pacquiao's footwork and speed is on another level, (i.e., among that of the all-time greats). If a relatively slow, flat-footed boxer such as Provodnikov was able to successfully pressure Algieri (Provodnikov knocked Algieri down twice in the first round and applied effective pressure in various other spots throughout the fight), how will Algieri be able to handle the lightning quick speed combined with power of Pacquiao? Both Timothy Bradley and Juan Manuel Marquez, two future hall-of-famers much more skilled and elusive than Algieri, had  (by their own admittance) problems with Pacquiao's speed - why would Algieri fare any different? 
•  Algieri lacks punching power; of Algieri's 20 wins, only 8 were by TKO/KO (with half of those 8 occurring in his first 6 fights vs. weak, unknown competition). Algieri is considered less of a puncher than former Pacquiao opponent Timothy Bradley, who was noted for his lack of punching power. Algieri's lack of power will likely allow Pacquiao to stay aggressive and take more chances in the fight. 
• Despite winning the fight, Algieri suffered massive swelling of his right eye vs. Provodnikov a few months ago. If Pacquiao targets the eye (which is highly possible), would expect the eye to re-swell and cause Algieri problems over the latter course of the fight.
• Algieri will have a clear height and reach advantage coming into the fight but those "advantages" may actually be a liability as taller, longer fighters often have trouble locating and landing clean punchers against shorter fighters (who tend to be quicker and more elusive). Pacquiao has had success in the past in high profile fights vs. taller fighters with range. 
• This fight is the first time Algieri has fought at welterweight in his career. The fight will actually be held at a catchweight (144 lbs) but this is the first time Algieri had fought above 140 lbs. How will his power (or, rather, his previously noted lack thereof) transfer to a higher weight class vs. a slightly larger opponent? Pacquiao, on the other hand, is very experienced at welterweight; many of his most notable fights took place at welterweight. 
• Algieri has never fought a solid southpaw in his career. His two notable fights vs. Provodnikov and Taylor were both fights against right-handed opponents.  
• This fight in Macau, China will be Algieri's first professional fight outside the New York City metropolitan area. How will he handle fighting overseas in front of an overwhelmingly pro-Pacquiao crowd? Despite the fact that two of the judges are from the U.S. can Algieri, who is little to no threat to win this fight by knockout, really expect to get a decision victory in China?

Summary

Other than a lucky punch (and it would have to be *very* lucky punch considering his lack of power), I'm not seeing how Algieri will pull off the upset here. Yes, Algieri is undefeated and is a tough, solid boxer with underrated skills. With his mobility and accurate jab, Algieri may have success in spots using his reach advantage to jab and evade Pacquiao's frequent ambush attacks or use his jab as a set up for clean counters when Pacquiao tries to get inside. Algieri is very well conditioned so I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is able to move effectively and box off his back foot the entire 12 rounds vs. Pacquiao without tiring. If Pacquiao fights a somewhat cautious fight (as he has for stretches of his previous two fights vs. Brandon Rios and Bradley after losing by KO in his 4th fight vs. Marquez), there is a possibility Algieri could outwork Pacquiao in spots to keep the fight competitive.

But I see Pacquiao's speed advantage being the key to this fight. Despite being 35 years old and past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite hand and foot speed, the likes of which Algieri has never seen before. Pacquiao still has great talent, skill, power, and experience, also the likes of which Algieri has never seen before. Algieri can try to move and stay out of range from Pacquiao's power all he wants but he certainly won't be able to go a full 12 (or even a couple) of rounds before Manny and his superior speed eventually catches up to him. Algieri was able to stay competitive vs. Provodnikov largely because Ruslan is flat-footed (i.e., usually has to be set before throwing a power punch) and Chris had the speed advantage; in this fight Manny will have the clear speed advantage vs. Algieri and is capable of throwing punching from a variety of awkward angles that will be difficult for Algieri to anticipate.

I feel Pacquiao's speed and power will easily overwhelm Algieri's reach advantage, mobility, and whatever game plan he has in store for Manny. Algieri is a tough kid for sure and I would not at all be surprised if he gets through all 12 rounds, but I'm leaning towards by Pacquiao by TKO/KO. Algieri has beaten every opponent put in front of him but, even at 35, Pacquiao is a couple levels above not only every opponent Algieri has ever faced but Algieri himself; I expect Pacquiao's brilliance to shine once again Saturday night in Macau.

Prediction: Pacquiao by TKO/KO

Cotto vs. Martinez: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Miguel Cotto (38-4-0, 31 KOs) vs. Sergio Martinez (51-2-2, 28 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: June 7, 2014
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC Middleweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Cotto +188, Martinez -205 (5 Dimes, 6/6/14)
Purse: Cotto: $3 million (guaranteed $7 million after TV revenues),  Martinez: $1.5 million (guaranteed more in TV revenues)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Cotto - #3 ranked junior middleweight, Martinez - #7 ranked pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine middleweight champion)
Style: Cotto: Orthodox, Martinez: Southpaw
Referee: Michael Griffin

Positives for Cotto

• Current Ring Magazine #3 ranked junior middleweight. Future hall-of-famer who has won major world titles in three different weight classes (light welterweight, welterweight, and light middleweight).
• High IQ, cautiously aggressive fighter with one of the best left hooks in boxing. (Cotto's left hook is particularly effective going to the body.) Cotto is widely considered one of the best body punchers in the sport. 
• One of the better offensive fighters in the boxing. Has good power in his left hand and throws combination punches very well. Versatile fighter who can outbox opponents from the outside or outpunch his opponents from the inside if needed.  
• Very experienced boxer who over the past decade has faced arguably the toughest competition of anyone in boxing. Has fought future hall-of-famers Floyd Mayweather Jr., Manny Pacquiao, and Shane Mosley as well as former champions such as Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Antonio Margarito (twice), and Ricardo Mayorga. Two years ago (May 2012), Cotto gave #1 pound-for-pound Mayweather one of the toughest fights of his career. 
• Will be fighting in front of a largely Puerto Rican, pro-Cotto crowd at Madison Square Garden the day before the National Puerto Rican Day parade. Cotto is 7-1 when fighting at Madison Square Garden, including 4-0 the weekend of the Puerto Rican Day parade.  
• Is currently trained by Freddie Roach, the 6-time Boxing Writers Association of America trainer of the year who is widely considered one of the best trainers in boxing history.
• In terms of common opponents, Cotto has beaten Antonio Margarito - one of only two boxers who has beaten Martinez.

Negatives for Cotto

• Although six years younger than Martinez, Cotto is 33 years old and is not as good of a fighter as he was in his prime. Although he's rebounded a bit since then, Cotto has not appeared to be the elite fighter he once was since his TKO loss to Margarito in 2008.
• Cotto is a gifted fighter offensively but has questionable defensive skills. Per CompuBox stats, opponents land nearly 40% of their power punches vs. Cotto, one of the highest percentages among CompuBox-tracked boxers. The top southpaws Cotto has faced - Pacquiao, Zab Judah, and Austin Trout - landed over 50% of their combined power punches vs. Cotto. If a middleweight with power like Martinez has similar success landing power punches, this fight will likely be over quickly.
• Cotto is fighting at middleweight for the first time vs. one of the best middleweights of this generation (and probably one of the best in history) in Sergio Martinez, who has natural advantages in size, speed, reach, height, and possibly power. Cotto fought at light welterweight (140 lbs) and welterweight (147 lbs) for the majority of his career; will his power stay with him as he moves up to middleweight?   
• Although Cotto has consistently taken on very tough opponents, he has not had a win vs. a top fighter in his prime since his close split decision victory vs. Clottey in 2009 - a fight many felt that Clottey won. 
• Cotto has questionable stamina; he has shown a tendency to tire later in fights, most notably his TKO loss to Margarito where he lost despite dominating the early rounds. 
• Cotto is a left-hand dominant boxer; he has very good power in his left hand but his right hand is generally not considered much of a threat in comparison. 
• Cotto has had troubles with the previous top southpaws he's faced (losses to both Austin Trout and Manny Pacquiao, as well as troubles in some rounds of his win in 2007 vs. Zab Judah).

Positives for Martinez

• Current Ring Magazine #7 pound-for-pound fighter and top-ranked middleweight. Although he has not received the glory and publicity of other top ranked fighters, Martinez is a future hall-of-famer who will go down as one of the best middleweights of this generation. 
• At 39 years old, is still a freakishly athletic, mobile, high IQ boxer who can outbox or outpunch his opponents with a wide variety of techniques. Martinez moves around the ring as well as anyone in the sport and fights very well on both his front foot (when coming forward) and back foot (while moving backwards). 
• Martinez has lost only twice in his career - a close majority decision loss 4.5 years ago to former middleweight champion Paul Williams and a TKO loss 14 years ago to Antonio Margarito. Overall Martinez has won his last seven fights.
• Is highly adept at potshotting his opponents with the jab, while using his legs and reach advantage to stay out of range vs. counter attacks. (Per CompuBox stats, is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of jabs landed.) 
• Martinez has highly deceptive, brutal punching power in both hands; one-punch knockout power which he has used to KO former titleholders Paul Williams, Darren Barker, and Serhiy Dzinziruk for the first time in their careers. Martinez has knocked out bigger boxers than Cotto in his career (including the aforementioned three) so certainly a possibility Martinez could stop Cotto, who has been stopped twice before in his career.     
• Martinez has excellent hand speed, which is the main reason he is one of the best combination punchers in the sport. Martinez should be able to beat Cotto to the punch consistently.
• Martinez generally outworks his opponents in terms of punches thrown; would expect Martinez to throw more punches than Cotto, especially if the fight gets to later rounds when Cotto tends to tire a bit. Martinez attacks to the body very well, which will likely further compromise Cotto's stamina as the fight goes on. 
• A former cyclist, Martinez has excellent stamina which allows him to maintain his mobility and perform well in later rounds.  
• Fight will be fought at a catchweight (159 lbs), just below the middleweight limit of 160 lbs. Martinez is the naturally bigger, stronger fighter compared to Cotto and will be fighting at a weight where he has been one of the greats of his generation; whereas Cotto will be moving up in weight to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career. 
• Martinez is an experienced boxer who has fought a solid list of former world champions including Paul Williams, Kelly Pavlik, Antonio Margarito, Darren Barker, Serhiy Dzinziruk, and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, compiling a record of 5-1-1 vs. these opponents.
• Martinez will be the heavier, taller, longer, faster, and quicker fighter and arguably more powerful puncher coming into the fight vs. Cotto. (These attributes will be difficult for Cotto to overcome.)
• Martinez is a determined fighter coming into this fight with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. Despite being a current middleweight champion and pound-for-pound one of the best boxers in the sport, he feels disrespected by being referred to as the "B" side fighter in the upcoming match vs. the "A" side Cotto.

Negatives for Martinez

• Martinez has been (and still is) one of the best boxers in the world but is 39 years old and well past his prime. It is inevitable that Martinez's age will catch-up with him; will this be the fight where Martinez shows his age?
• Martinez has sustained a variety of injuries during fights over the past couple of years; Martinez tore ligaments in his right knee and broke his left hand in his fight vs. Julio Cesar Chavez in September 2012 and then re-injured the right knee and broke his left hand again in his most recent fight vs. Martin Murray. (Both knee injuries required surgery.) Martinez also suffered a left shoulder injury in the fight vs. Murray. Given his age and the fact that he relies on mobility and power punching to box, there is a decent possibility Martinez suffers another injury in the fight vs. Cotto. Will another injury affect the outcome of the fight? How well will Martinez's right knee and left hand hold up vs. Cotto, who will likely try to pressure Sergio and make the fight physical?
• Due to his aforementioned injury problems, Martinez has been relatively inactive over the past couple of years. Martinez hasn't fought in over a year (April 2013) and has only fought twice in the past two years. Ring rust may be an issue; how good will a 39-year old Martinez look after a layoff of over a year?  
• Martinez has shown vulnerability in recent fights. Despite fighting in his home country vs. a huge underdog, Martinez looked unimpressive in a close decision victory vs. Martin Murray, even getting knocked down in the 8th round. Martinez has been knocked down in each of his past three fights (vs. Murray, Chavez Jr., and Dzinziruk) so is certainly susceptible to being knocked down vs. a power puncher like Cotto.
• Martinez is outstanding at using his legs and reach to elude his opponents' attacks but defensively he's a fundamentally flawed fighter. Martinez fights with his hands down and chin exposed which leaves him open to clean punches when his opponents catch up to him. Opponents land nearly 40% of power punches vs. Martinez, one of the highest percentages amongst CompuBox-tracked boxers. This may be a problem vs. an offensively efficient fighter like Cotto.

Prefight Summary

 Unless Martinez's age has finally caught up to him or he is still affected by his recurring hand and knee injuries, I think this will be an easy fight for Martinez. The bottom line with this fight is Martinez is naturally much bigger than Cotto - who will be fighting at middleweight for the first time - and is either slightly better or much better than Cotto at just about every other aspect of boxing.

Cotto has had problems in the past vs. top-level southpaws with good speed (see Manny Pacquiao, Austin Trout, and stretches of the Zab Judah fight), allowing them combined to land over 50% of their power punches. I expect Cotto's defensive flaws to be magnified vs. a bigger boxer in Martinez, who also has very good hand speed and throws some of the best combinations in boxing.

Cotto may have a game plan to pressure Martinez and beat him on the inside with a body attack. I don't see Cotto having sustained success with this game plan vs. a bigger, stronger guy like Martinez. If Cotto tries to pressure Martinez, I expect Sergio's crisp counterpunching to eventually wear Cotto down in the mid to late rounds. Martinez is a determined fighter who is not only more skilled than Cotto, but is fighting with a chip on his shoulder due to feeling disrespected in the prefight negotiations so I don't see Martinez letting this fight get away from him. Cotto is an aggressive boxer who packs a powerful punch, but I don't see his power at middleweight comparing to true middleweight power such as Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., Martin Murray, or Matthew Macklin, who were all able to knockdown Martinez in the later rounds of recent fights, but were unable to finish him.

Again, the big concern I have in this fight is whether or not Martinez finally shows his age and whether or not the injuries that have affected him in his last two fights recur again. If they do, this fight is certainly up in the air and Cotto could get the stoppage. But if Martinez stays healthy throughout the fight I fully expect the bigger, more skilled Martinez to beat Cotto by TKO/KO, if not a wide unanimous decision. A prime Miguel Cotto I would give a chance in this fight, not the slowed down 33-year old version we'll be seeing on Saturday.

Prediction: Martinez by TKO/KO or Decision