Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (46-1-1, 32 KOs) vs. Amir Khan (31-3, 19 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 7, 2016
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 155 lbs
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Middleweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez -475, Khan +420 (5 Dimes, 5/7/16)
Purse: Alvarez: $3.5 million, Khan: $2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Khan: #2 ranked welterweight
Style: Canelo: Orthodox, Khan: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless
Why you should watch this fight
This is the first PPV fight for Khan and stands a good chance of being the defining fight of his career; can Khan become only the 5th boxer in history to win a major world title in his first fight after jumping up two weight classes (Roberto Duran, Roy Jones Jr., Robert Guerrero, Adrien Broner) and the first to do so in the middleweight division? If Khan beats Canelo, he would become only the 2nd boxer to win a lineal championship in his first fight after jumping up two divisions (Duran) - that would be an extremely impressive feat even considering the fight is being fought at a catchweight of 155 lbs.
Why Canelo Alvarez will win
Canelo is the younger, stronger boxer (and in fact is likely the strongest boxer Khan has ever faced) facing a boxer in Khan who has a notorious history of chin (as well as other fundamental defensive) problems resulting in him being knocked down and/or knocked out multiple times by lesser punchers than Canelo. Canelo is the naturally bigger boxer fighting in a weight range he is comfortable at (150-155 lbs) and has been fighting at for over five years while Khan is moving up two weight classes to fight at 155 lbs for the first time after fighting his entire career at 140 and 147. Khan has pretty good power but how his power will translate after moving up two weight classes is a huge question mark, especially against a bigger fighter like Canelo who has proven to have a very good chin. (Canelo has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career.)
Canelo is in his prime and appears to still be improving with each fight. Although known and marketed as a big puncher, Canelo is a (very) high IQ, skilled boxer who, per CompuBox statistics, is one of the most efficient fighters in the sport. He is a patient, but highly accurate puncher who throws combination punches in particular very well. Canelo is also an excellent body puncher who will likely make it a point to attack Khan's body throughout the course of the fight. Khan is very mobile but it will be nearly impossible for him to elude Canelo's aggressive accuracy and power for a full 12 rounds - especially given his penchant for staying at inside distance a bit too long while executing his quick combinations.
Canelo cuts off the ring pretty well for someone not too fleet of foot (he had success cutting off the ring vs. Lara in spots) and, while not quite as fast as Khan, has very underrated hand speed.
No one would consider Canelo a defensive wizard but his defense - in particular his upper body and head movement - have noticeably improved in recent fights. Canelo has also never been knocked down or knocked out in his career, which has included many fights vs. boxers much bigger and stronger than Khan. It's tough to envision Khan - who is fighting at middleweight for the first time in his career after spending his entire career at junior welterweight and welterweight - posing a threat to Canelo in terms of punching power.
On Cinco de Mayo weekend in Las Vegas, the crowd at the new T-Mobile Arena will be decidedly pro-Canelo, which could influence the fight inside the ring (i.e., inspiration for Canelo to fight well in front of a largely Mexican/Mexican-American crowd) and the judging outside the ring. Judges' scorecards in Canelo fights have tended to strongly favor Canelo - even in fights considered close by the general public. (See the scoring in Canelo's recent competitive fights vs. Cotto, Lara, and Austin Trout as examples.) Even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw; so if this fight ends up being much more competitive than expected (which is highly possible given Khan's outstanding offensive skill and advantage in speed) don't be at all surprised to see the fight still scored comfortably for Canelo.
Why Amir Khan will win
Despite the clear strength and size discrepancies, Khan does have some advantages over Canelo which could lead to an upset.
Khan is a very gifted offensive fighter with some of the fastest hands in boxing. He is considered by many to be the more technically skilled boxer in this matchup and enters tonight's fight vs. Canelo with a clear hand and foot speed advantage. Khan does have a well documented history of chin problems - 2 of his 3 losses have come via early round KO to fighters who were considered significant underdogs - but his defensive discipline and movement appear to have at least improved a bit in the 3.5 years he's trained under Virgil Hunter. If Khan can move intelligently and maintain range vs. Canelo through 12 rounds, he has a strong chance of outboxing Canelo with his speed and winning the fight on points.
Khan has arguably never been outboxed in his professional career, with all of his losses coming by either early round KO (Breidis Prescott, Danny Garcia) or by a very controversial split decision which included multiple questionable point deductions (Lamont Peterson). If Khan keeps the fight outside at a manageable distance, I'd expect the generally high-output, jab-happy Khan to outwork the relatively low-output, patient Canelo with his advantages in speed, reach (Khan possesses a slight 1/2" reach advantage), and skill.
Like Canelo, Khan is also an accurate puncher who attacks the body very well; Canelo has experienced stamina issues in the past and is prone to taking stretches of rounds off as a pacing mechanism so if Khan can effectively attack Canelo's body, he could weaken Canelo's punching power in the later rounds, where many are expecting Canelo to catch up to Khan and knock him out.
As an experienced and (arguably) more skilled boxer, no one should be surprised if there are large stretches of tonight's fight where Khan flat-out outboxes Canelo - especially in the early rounds. Canelo's defense has improved in recent fights but an ultra-quick offensive talent like Khan likely won't find it too difficult (as a comparatively quick Mayweather didn't) in spots to land punches vs. a somewhat flat-footed Canelo.
Although no longer undefeated or considered a top 5 pound-for-pound boxer (as he was a few years ago when he was a unified junior welterweight champion and defended his title five times over the course of two years), at age 29 Khan is still in his prime and still one of the best offensive fighters in the sport. Khan has nearly always jumped out to wide early leads due to his unique combination of skill and speed; the question in this fight is simply whether he (and his very questionable chin) will be able to elude danger for a full 12 rounds vs. a bigger, stronger, top-level power puncher in Canelo - especially given that he's jumped up two weight classes and fighting for the first time as a middleweight.
Win or lose, Khan always fights with tremendous heart and determination (though this is sometimes to his detriment, as clearly seen in the fights he's lost by KO). Tonight's fight is by far the biggest of Khan's career - it's his first PPV fight, biggest payday, and first fight where he's coming in as the underdog so everyone watching should expect an extremely focused, highly determined Khan in the ring Saturday night.
Khan is a very gifted offensive fighter with some of the fastest hands in boxing. He is considered by many to be the more technically skilled boxer in this matchup and enters tonight's fight vs. Canelo with a clear hand and foot speed advantage. Khan does have a well documented history of chin problems - 2 of his 3 losses have come via early round KO to fighters who were considered significant underdogs - but his defensive discipline and movement appear to have at least improved a bit in the 3.5 years he's trained under Virgil Hunter. If Khan can move intelligently and maintain range vs. Canelo through 12 rounds, he has a strong chance of outboxing Canelo with his speed and winning the fight on points.
Khan has arguably never been outboxed in his professional career, with all of his losses coming by either early round KO (Breidis Prescott, Danny Garcia) or by a very controversial split decision which included multiple questionable point deductions (Lamont Peterson). If Khan keeps the fight outside at a manageable distance, I'd expect the generally high-output, jab-happy Khan to outwork the relatively low-output, patient Canelo with his advantages in speed, reach (Khan possesses a slight 1/2" reach advantage), and skill.
Like Canelo, Khan is also an accurate puncher who attacks the body very well; Canelo has experienced stamina issues in the past and is prone to taking stretches of rounds off as a pacing mechanism so if Khan can effectively attack Canelo's body, he could weaken Canelo's punching power in the later rounds, where many are expecting Canelo to catch up to Khan and knock him out.
As an experienced and (arguably) more skilled boxer, no one should be surprised if there are large stretches of tonight's fight where Khan flat-out outboxes Canelo - especially in the early rounds. Canelo's defense has improved in recent fights but an ultra-quick offensive talent like Khan likely won't find it too difficult (as a comparatively quick Mayweather didn't) in spots to land punches vs. a somewhat flat-footed Canelo.
Although no longer undefeated or considered a top 5 pound-for-pound boxer (as he was a few years ago when he was a unified junior welterweight champion and defended his title five times over the course of two years), at age 29 Khan is still in his prime and still one of the best offensive fighters in the sport. Khan has nearly always jumped out to wide early leads due to his unique combination of skill and speed; the question in this fight is simply whether he (and his very questionable chin) will be able to elude danger for a full 12 rounds vs. a bigger, stronger, top-level power puncher in Canelo - especially given that he's jumped up two weight classes and fighting for the first time as a middleweight.
Win or lose, Khan always fights with tremendous heart and determination (though this is sometimes to his detriment, as clearly seen in the fights he's lost by KO). Tonight's fight is by far the biggest of Khan's career - it's his first PPV fight, biggest payday, and first fight where he's coming in as the underdog so everyone watching should expect an extremely focused, highly determined Khan in the ring Saturday night.
Prefight Analysis
If chin and size weren't an issue, I'd probably take Khan to win this fight.
I generally agree with the sentiment that Khan has never been outboxed and think that, while Canelo's hand speed is underrated, Khan should be able to consistently beat Canelo to the punch and stay out of range vs. the relatively slow-footed Canelo and his dangerous punching power. Canelo has sometimes had trouble cutting off the ring vs. more mobile opponents; there's a good possibility he'll have similar problems vs. Khan, who is likely the fastest opponent he's ever faced.
Khan's defensive deficiencies notwithstanding, if Khan stays out of the corner of the ring (where he is at much greater risk of getting pummeled) and picks the right spots to throw his quick combinations he can outwork and outpoint the at times low-volume and overly patient Canelo. Again, the question would be how much success Khan will have eluding Canelo's pressure and accurate punching power for 12 rounds.
Though I believe Khan to be an elite offensive fighter with overall better skills than Canelo, there are several reasons why I strongly favor Canelo to win this fight. Firstly, the size disparity will be too much for Khan to overcome. Khan is moving up two weight classes to fight for the first time as a middleweight; while the weight jump is effectively only eight pounds (147 lbs to 155 lbs), there is expected to be a wide size discrepancy between Khan and the naturally bigger Canelo (who typically balloons to well over 170 lbs) on fight night. Canelo will be (by far) the biggest fighter and strongest puncher Khan has ever fought, while it is doubtful Khan's solid power at 147 lbs will translate well at the higher weight class vs. a fighter in Canelo who has already proven his chin vs. bigger fighters than Khan. There is also a question of how Khan's speed - his primary advantage in the fight - will be affected by the higher weight.
Secondly Khan's chin will likely mot be able to elude Canelo - one of the more accurate and efficient punchers in the sport - for 12 rounds. Khan has been knocked out in early rounds vs. lesser punchers at junior welterweight (140 lbs) and welterweight (147 lbs); there's little reason to think Khan won't suffer the same - or even a worse - fate vs. a bigger, stronger power puncher in Canelo. Khan's defense does appear to have improved a bit in his 3.5 years under trainer Virgil Hunter (e.g., he's decreased exposure to his chin by staying off the ropes more and spending less time inside throwing the multi-punch combinations that put him in poor defensive positions) but it should also be noted that Khan's chin hasn't really been tested in recent fights - he hasn't faced a good puncher since fighting Julio Diaz four fights ago in 2013; Khan won a close decision in that fight but Diaz did score a 4th round knockdown.
Sure, Canelo has had difficulty with faster fighters in the recent past, most notably Mayweather and Lara, but Mayweather is one of the best defensive fighters in the history of the sport and Lara is one of the best defensive fighters today. Both Mayweather and Lara are elite, high IQ boxers who understanding spacing and were able to elude Canelo with their length and vertical movement even while at close range. Khan is actually faster than both Mayweather and Lara but does not move as well or have the defensive IQ of either fighter. Khan still has issues with staying inside a bit too long and still has subpar upper body movement, meaning he'll likely be easier to hit when Canelo (inevitably) catches up to him. In recent fights, Khan has sometimes been able to avoid pressure by clinching or pushing off on his opponents - it will be much tougher to do this vs. a bigger opponent in Canelo.
In his most recent fight, Khan surprisingly even had issues defensively vs. the soft-punching Chris Algieri at welterweight so tough to see Khan not having a much worse time of it vs. one of the better punchers in the sport.
Even if Khan is somehow able to maintain distance vs. Canelo and box effectively with him for 12 rounds, there is still the issue of whether Khan will get a fair score as the "B-side" of the boxing promotion on Cinco De Mayo weekend in front of a largely Mexican/Mexican-American crowd. Khan throws a lot of punches and could outwork the typically low-volume Canelo but - fair or not - Canelo has a judge-friendly style due largely to his aggression and tendency to land clean, accurate power punches. So even if Khan outboxes Canelo (which is a possibility), there is a decent chance Canelo still gets the decision.
But given Khan's size deficiency, chin issues, and fundamental defensive flaws, I don't see this fight going 12 rounds anyway. I expect Canelo to eventually figure out Khan's timing, catch up to him in the mid to late rounds, and score a TKO/KO victory vs. an opponent who's perhaps bit off a bit more than he can chew by moving up to middleweight to fight Canelo.
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