Fury vs. Wilder III: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Tyson Fury (30-0-1, 21 KOs) vs. Deontay Wilder (42-1-1, 41 KOs) 

Location:  T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: October 9, 2021
Weight class: Heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World heavyweight title
TV/Stream: ESPN/FOX PPV
Line (Bovada): Fury: -275, Wilder: +215   (10/9/21)
Purse: Fury: $6 million, Wilder: $4 million (base salary; Fury will be guaranteed at least $30 million, while Wilder will be guaranteed at least $20 million based upon the contracted 60/40 split for the 3rd fight, not including percentages of PPV profits)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Fury: Ring Magazine heavyweight champion, Wilder: #3 ranked heavyweight 
Style: Fury: Orthodox, Wilder: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Wilder wins this fight. Fight fans talk all the time about "puncher's chance." Wilder might actually be the best example in the history of boxing of a fighter who always has a puncher's chance with his historically great punching power that I think gives him a legitimate shot to beat anyone put in front of him - including the objectively more skilled Fury who's arguably won as many as 17 of the 19 rounds they've fought in their two previous fights. 

Wilder will be coming off the longest layoff of his career but Fury himself will be coming off his 2nd longest layoff - a nearly 20-month layoff during the latter part of which he caught COVID (reportedly suffering mild breathing and congestion issues as a result) and most recently had to also deal with the huge disappointment  of losing a potentially massive payday in a future unification bout with Anthony Joshua is what would've been the biggest fight in the history of UK boxing. (Two weeks ago, the favored Joshua lost his WBA, IBF, and WBO heavyweight titles to undefeated Ukrainian Olexandr Usyk; a victory by Joshua vs. Usyk followed by a Fury win tonight would've set the stage for a Joshua/Fury matchup in 2022 for the undisputed heavyweight championship in which Fury would've been the favorite. Paydays were expected to approach $100 million for each fighter in that matchup.)  

Will a fighter notorious for his unpredictability and at times (given his diagnosed bipolar disorder) lack of mental instability), coming off an extended layoff where he had to recover from COVID and experience the disappointment of losing a possible career-defining fight vs. Joshua be sufficiently motivated to beat a fighter he already feels he beat twice? (The first fight between Fury and Wilder in 2018 was officially scored a draw, though most felt Fury outboxed Wilder in that matchup.) Wilder comes into this fight seeking revenge for the embarrassing TKO loss in their February 2020 rematch - one gets the impression Wilder wants this more and has much more to lose career-wise than Fury in tonight's matchup. Despite the loss to Fury in their previous fight, Wilder seems extremely confident and determined to win - it wouldn't surprise me at all if he puts everything together and pulls off the stoppage... as he came within a fraction of a second of doing in the final round of their first fight.

But I think - as he's already demonstrated in the clear majority of the 19 rounds he's faced Wilder in their two previous fights - Fury's skills will be too much for Wilder to overcome. Since he beat Vladimir Klitschko in 2015, I've felt Fury is the best heavyweight of this generation (i.e., better than even prime Klitschko and the best heavyweight fighter since Lennox Lewis). Fury mostly outboxed Wilder in their first fight, then made adjustments to more effectively utilize his advantages in size and strength to completely dominate the slightly favored Wilder in last year's rematch. Wilder is renowned for his punching power, but not so much for his technical boxing skills or ability to make adjustments. Even with his new trainer, Malik Scott, I seriously doubt Wilder's ability to effectively make adjustments vs. a supremely-skilled heavyweight like Fury. Wilder failed to make adjustments in his previous fight vs. Fury (losing the first 6 rounds on 2 of the 3 judges' scorecards before getting stopped in the 7th) and even failed to make adjustments in his fight prior to that - his rematch vs. Luis Ortiz where he also arguably lost every round in that fight before stopping Ortiz in the 7th. 

Wilder is a predictable, relatively basic boxer who had trouble landing punches on Fury in both previous fights, landing only 16.5% of his attempted punches in their first fight and a still very low 24.1% in their rematch where Fury fought more aggressively coming forward. Wilder's punch output has also (noticeably) declined in recent fights. There's nothing in Wilder's previous fights - in particular the rematches he's already had vs. Fury and Ortiz - that makes me think he can make the adjustments necessary to have more than a puncher's chance of beating Fury. Wilder's nature is to fight one way (behind the punching power in his right hand); at 35 years old and arguably a bit past his prime, that's highly unlikely to change in a way that will be effective vs. perhaps the best heavyweight fighter of this generation. 

I think Fury, as he's indicated several times in recent pre-fight interviews, will be as aggressive and physical as he was in the last fight and aim for another early round stoppage of Wilder. Wilder, having full confidence in his own power and seeing how Fury bullied through his cautious approach in their rematch, will at some point in tonight's fight - probably early in the fight - feel he has no choice but to reciprocate Fury's aggression and come out swinging. 

While Wilder will likely be more prepared for Fury's tactics this time around, I don't see this fight going the distance - I see a stoppage one way or the other in the early to middle rounds. Most likely, Fury will be able to - as he did in the last fight - use his superior size, jab, movement, and overall skill advantage to outphysical and outwit Wilder to earn another TKO/KO victory. Fury's increased aggression will of course leave him more susceptible to Wilder's power, so it's certainly well within the range of possibility it's Wilder who gets the stoppage this time around.

Given the pricing of Fury as a (roughly) -300 betting favorite, I feel the bet with the most value as of now is the under 7.5 rounds (which can currently be found around even money odds), with a smaller bet on Fury to win by TKO/KO/DQ (which can also be found at around even money odds) also being worthwhile. The main fight could certainly go either way but very much looking forward to the all-heavyweight PPV card tonight!

Prediction: Fury to win

Recommended bets: 1) Under 7.5 rounds (bet to WIN .5 unit) 2) Fury to win by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to WIN .25 unit)

Pacquiao vs. Ugas: Why You Should Watch This Fight

 Fight: Manny Pacquiao (62-7-2, 39 KOs) vs. Yordenis Ugas (26-4, 12 KOs)

Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: August 21, 2021
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Major title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Welterweight title
TV/Stream: FOX PPV
Line (Bovada): Pacquiao: -400, Ugas: +300  (8/21/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao: #3 ranked welterweight, Ugas: #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Ugas: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

Manny Pacquiao vs. Errol Spence was set to be the biggest fight of the summer - an 8-division champion in Pacquiao universally recognized as one of the great pound-for-pound boxers of all-time vs. an undefeated, two-belt welterweight champion in Spence, considered arguably the best welterweight in the world and one of the top 5-6 boxers pound-for-pound in the world today. That was until Spence - only 10 days prior to the fight - had to abruptly pull out of the match after doctors uncovered a retinal tear in his left eye. 

Spence was replaced by Cuban boxer Yordenis Ugas, who was elevated from WBA Regular to WBA Super welterwieght champion this past January after Pacquiao was stripped of his title due to inactivity. (Pacquiao had won that WBA Super welterweight belt in his most recent fight way back in April 2019, a split decision vs. then-undefeated champion Keith Thurman.)

Given the ill-timed postponements of several highly-anticipated pay-per-view championship fights in recent weeks (Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant, Tyson Fury vs. Deontay Wilder, Teofimo Lopez vs. George Kambosos as some examples), Pacquiao vs. Ugas has emerged as possibly still the biggest, most intriguing matchup of the summer.  The fight pits an mega-popular legend in Pacquiao - the Boxing Writer's Association of America's Fighter of the Decade for the 2000s, WBC and WBO's Fighter of the Decade for the 2010s, and the only fighter in boxing history to hold world championships across 4 decades (1990s, 2000s, 2010s, 2020s) - vs. a very solid but unheralded Cuban fighter in Ugas in what will be by far the biggest fight in Ugas's career. Ugas, a bronze medalist for Cuba during the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, sports an unremarkable 26-4 record as a pro but has won 11 of his last 12 fights since 2014 - with the lone loss being a controversial split decision loss to then WBC welterweight champion Shawn Porter. (I personally scored that fight a draw.)

Pacquiao is 42 years old (turns 43 in December) and - having not fought in over 2 years - is coming off by far the longest layoff of his professional career. Pacquiao's two previous longest layoffs were the 12-month layoff he took after his controversial unanimous decision loss to Jeff Horn in Australia and the 11.5-month layoff he took after getting knocked out by Juan Manuel Marquez. If Pacquiao wins Saturday night's fight he regains the WBA Super welterweight belt that was stripped from him due to inactivity, and sets himself up for a possible superfight with Spence in 2022 after Spence recovers from his eye injury (or even a possible superfight with undefeated WBO welterweight champion Terence Crawford, who Pacquiao came extremely close to agreeing to terms with for a fight in the Middle East this summer, if Spence doesn't recover in time).

If Ugas wins, it would be the biggest win in the storied history of Cuban boxing (even if Cuba doesn't recognize the accomplishments of defected athletes such as Ugas) and sets him up with a possible unification fight with Spence in early 2022.   

Pacquiao vs. Ugas will be the first pay-per-view event hosted by Fox since Fox co-hosted the Wilder/Fury II boxing event with ESPN back in 2020.   

Charlo vs. Derevyanchenko: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Jermall Charlo (30-0, 22 KOs) vs. Sergiy Derevyanchenko (13-2, 10 KOs)
Location:  Mohegan Sun Casino, Uncasville, Connecticut
Date: September 26, 2020
Weight class: Middleweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World middleweight title
TV/Stream: Showtime PPV
Line (Bovada): Charlo: -185, Derevyanchenko: +150  (9/25/20)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Charlo: #3-ranked middleweight, Derevyanchenko: #4-ranked middleweight
Style: Charlo: Orthodox, Derevyanchenko: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

Jermall Charlo vs. Sergiy Derevyanchenko will likely give boxing fans a much better sense of where these two elite middleweights fall within the pecking order of the division - especially Charlo, who some observers feel could prove in the very near future to be the best middleweight in the world. An impressive win by the slightly-favored Charlo in this weekend's matchup would further confirm the feelings of some that Charlo poses the biggest threat at middleweight to current pound-for-pound #1 and Ring Magazine lineal/WBA Super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez should he come back down from higher weight classes to fight in the division. 

Charlo, the current WBC middleweight champion, sports an impressive 30-0 record and he - along with his identical twin brother, WBC super welterweight champion Jermell Charlo - have risen in recent years to become among the most well-known names in the sport. Despite his perfect record and having won world titles in two different weight classes (Jermall Charlo held the IBF super welterweight title from 2015 to 2017 before vacating it to move up to middleweight), Charlo has never received serious consideration as one of the best pound-for-pound boxers in the sport due in large part to lack of notable opponents on his resume. (A past prime Austin Trout and a chinny Julian Williams have been his two toughest opponents thus far in his career.)  A stoppage or clear unanimous decision victory vs. a widely-respected, elite middleweight in Derevyanchenko could be the fight that moves Charlo into the pound-for-pound rankings and on the precipice of becoming a boxing superstar.   

After very close decision losses to Daniel Jacobs and Golovkin (a split decision loss to Jacobs and unanimous decision loss to Golovkin in a fight that many - myself included - felt won), Derevyanchenko hopes his third time challenging for the middleweight championship is the charm in a fight almost universally considered the toughest challenge of Charlo's career. Despite only having 15 professional fights with an unremarkable record of 13-2, Derevyanchenko is a seasoned boxing veteran with over 400 amateur fights and a fighter who some, despite only being six years and 15 fights into his professional career, would argue beat both Jacobs and Golovkin. If Derevyanchenko upsets Charlo, he stakes his claim as potentially the best middleweight in the world and sets himself up for lucrative PPV matchups with other elite 160-pounders. If he wins the WBC belt from Charlo, Derevyanchenko - even with the promotional roadblocks that would make it a difficult fight to make - could be an opponent that entices Canelo to come back down to middleweight to unify titles, given Derevyanchenko's come-forward, pressuring style that many feel Canelo's excellent counter punching skills would match up very well against. 

Charlo vs. Derevyanchenko is the first of two main events in a unique "double" card taking place on Showtime PPV this Saturday night. Five of the six televised fights on the card will be world title fights and will feature notable fighters such as Charlo's twin brother (and current WBC super welterweight champion) Jermell, undefeated former WBC bantamweight titlist Luis Nery, and current undefeated WBA super bantamweight titlist Brandon Figueroa. Jermall's WBC middleweight title defense vs. Derevyanchenko will headline the first portion of the PPV, while Jermell's unification title fight with WBA and IBF champion Jeison Rosario will headline the second portion. Saturday night's double PPV card is widely considered one of the most stacked PPV cards in numerous years.   

Prefight Analysis

When this fight was first announced, I was inclined to believe that Derevyanchenko to win (as a slight underdog) would probably be the best bet. Even with exactly half as many professional fights as Charlo, Derevyanchenko has the vastly superior experience vs. top-level opposition at middleweight, given his close (and highly debatable) losses over the past two years to Jacobs and pound-for-pound ranked Golovkin. Even unheralded middleweight Jack Culcay, a German boxer Derevyanchenko beat by unanimous decision in 2019 on the undercard of the Caleb Truax vs. Peter Quillin fight in Minnesota, could arguably be considered a better opponent than any middleweight Charlo has fought to date. (Culcay is currently ranked the #8 middleweight boxer in the world by BoxRec.) Charlo has fought five times at middleweight since vacating his super welterweight title in 2017, and has yet to fight a top-10 ranked middleweight opponent. Charlo has also failed to impress in most of his recent fights at middleweight, most notably his 2018 unanimous decision victory vs. Matvey Korobov that some felt should have been scored for Korobov.

Derevyanchenko is a technically sound pressure fighter whose relatively short (5'9")  stature may work to his advantage in Saturday's fight to enable him to duck under Charlo's attack and score effectively on the inside, as he did for stretches vs. both Golovkin and Jacobs. At 34 years old and with those two losses in recent PPV title fights, one would think that the sense of urgency will definitely be there Saturday night for Derevyanchenko, as this third title shot could be the last chance he gets to win a major belt, given his age and the wars he's been through in recent years. 

Derevyanchenko is a gritty, determined fighter with the superior experience and - despite the losses - has arguably looked more impressive at middleweight than Charlo ever has. At least on the surface, betting on Derevyanchenko to win straight up (+150) or by decision (+275)  as an underdog would seem to be very solid value, especially given that Charlo is still unproven at the elite level and to date  has faced no one near Derevyanchenko's caliber at middleweight.

But, despite the unknowns about Charlo at middleweight, I still like Jermall in this matchup. Styles make fights and I think at the end of the day, Derevyanchenko's style of pressure won't fare well vs. Charlo's defensively responsible style and physical metrics. Although Charlo previously fought as a super welterweight (154 lbs), his size and power have carried very well up to 160 lbs to the point where he can be considered a big middleweight who could likely compete for a world title as a super middleweight (168 lbs) in the near future. Charlo is bigger, stronger, and faster than Derevyanchenko - and has an elite power jab that I expect will control the tempo of the fight given Charlo's significant 6" reach advantage. In addition to a jab that's one of the best in boxing (and has been one of the best in boxing for a few years now), Charlo is slicker and more savvy defensively with better foot movement than any of Derevyanchenko's previous opponents at middleweight, including Golovkin and Jacobs. Relative to Golovkin and Jacobs, Derevyanchenko in my opinion will find it tougher to apply his patented high volume pressure given Charlo's reach advantage and defensive abilities. And - given Charlo's adeptness at countering pressure with big power that's quick and often pinpoint - Derevyanchenko's pressure might create too many holes that Charlo can exploit. 

At 30 years old, Charlo is the younger fighter in the prime of his career while Derevyanchenko - despite only being 15 fights into his professional career - is a bit past his prime at 34 (turning 35 next month). Derevyanchenko also hasn't fought in nearly a year, which I think will be to the detriment of the aging fighter. Even with the time he's had off to rest, Derevyanchenko is a battle-worn fighter from his lengthy, 400+ fight amateur career and the wars he's had in recent years with the likes of Golovkin and Jacobs.  

It would also be remiss to discount the promotional politics behind Saturday night's boxing card. Charlo's manager (and de facto promoter) Al Haymon, along with the Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) boxing series, are using this double PPV card as part of their effort to build the Charlo twins into one of the biggest brands in the sport. Jermall Charlo is obviously the "A" side of this matchup; Derevyanchenko is the "B" side and was the "B" side in his two other recent PPV fights vs. Golovkin and Jacobs - it shouldn't come as a surprise that he came out on the short end on the judges' scorecards in both of those close fights in which either could reasonably have been scored in his favor. For the PBC series, where the Charlo twins are among the more marketable commodities in all of boxing, I'd have to think a close fight this Saturday night is just as likely to be scored in favor of the "A" side Charlo as Derevyanchenko's fights vs. Golovkin and Jacobs were. 

So, all things considered, I like betting the favored Charlo for the win here. In terms of method of victory - Derevyanchenko has been knocked down early in each of his two other recent PPV fights vs. Golovkin and Jacobs (both times in the first round) but has never come close to being stopped as a pro. Charlo possesses big power that I feel will be effective vs. Derevyanchenko's pressure, but Charlo is by nature a low-volume, cautiously aggressive fighter which - combined with Derevyanchenko's resilient nature and sturdy chin - leads me to believe it's highly likely this fight goes to decision. Therefore, I think a bet on Charlo to win by decision offers the best value for this matchup Either way, definitely looking forward to this event and the stacked card!!! 

Prediction: Charlo to win

Recommended bet: Charlo to win by decision (bet to RISK .5 unit)

Wilder vs. Fury II: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Deontay Wilder (42-0-1, 41 KOs) vs. Tyson Fury (29-0-1, 20 KOs)
Location:  MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: February 22, 2020
Weight class: Heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World heavyweight title
TV/Stream: ESPN/FOX PPV
Line (5 Dimes): Wilder: -131, Fury: +121  (12/20/20)
Purse: Wilder: $5 million, Fury: $5 million (though both will be guaranteed at least $25 million each, not including percentages of PPV profits)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Fury: #1 ranked heavyweight
Style: Wilder: Orthodox, Fury: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

I've found it (mildly) surprising that a clear majority of boxing experts/sharps - including quite a few who picked Fury to win the first fight and actually thought he won that fight despite the fight being scored a draw - are picking Wilder to win by TKO/KO in the rematch. Indeed, Wilder by TKO/KO *might* be the most likely of all specific outcomes so might - especially at well above even money odds (currently +125 at 5Dimes) - be the best bet on this fight. As noted (perhaps ad nauseam) in the massive Fox/ESPN promotion for the fight, Deontay Wilder might have the hardest single punch in the *history* of boxing with his straight right hand. Wilder has the highest TKO/KO percentage in heavyweight boxing history (95.4%) and has either knocked out or knocked down every fighter he's ever faced in his professional career, including knocking Fury down twice in the last four rounds of their first fight. 

Wilder - who took up boxing relatively late at 20 years old - is actually a still-improving fighter who has shown noticeable improvement in most of his recent fights in particular. Wilder's improvement is reflected in the fact that in each of his two previous rematches (vs. Bermane Stiverne in November 2017 and Luis Ortiz in 2019), Wilder was able to finish his opponent faster in the rematch than he was in the first fight; it certainly stands to reason that there's a very good chance Wilder could look similarly impressive in tonight's rematch vs. Fury.

To his credit, Wilder did  make the necessary adjustments  - in the last four rounds of his first fight vs. Fury - to his punch trajectory that enabled him to knock Fury down twice and almost stop him in the 12th round. It stands to reason that Wilder's successful adjustments (which speak to at least a partial "figuring out" of Fury's defensive movement) will carry over into the rematch.

The fact that Fury just three months ago switched trainers (from Ben Davidson to the Kronk Gym's SugarHill Steward) for tonight's rematch might also be of concern to Fury supporters, as it typically takes time for even experienced, elite boxers to adjust to a new trainer (though Fury is familiar with Steward from having previously trained under his uncle Emmanuel Steward many years ago at the same gym). All indications are that the switch in trainers was made to implement a more aggressive, come-forward attack strategy vs. Wilder with the hopes of beating Wilder by knockout; this could very well prove to be a foolhardy strategy vs. one of the hardest punchers in the history of boxing as it perhaps will do little more than increase Fury's own chances of getting knocked out himself.

Furthermore, Fury weighing in for this fight at 273 pounds - 16.5 pounds heavier than he weighed in his first fight with Wilder - could render him less able to be as mobile and elusive as he likely will need to be at certain points of the fight, particularly in the late stages where he was knocked down twice in the previous fight vs. Wilder. (Despite the draw, Fury won the first fight in most people's eyes largely by employing his typical rangy, pot shot-from-distance style with constant movement that helped him mostly avoid Wilder's knockout punches for *most* of the fight.)

I did pick Wilder to win by TKO/KO in the first fight, though that was nearly entirely because I felt Fury took that fight too soon after a 2.5 year layoff  - a layoff riddled with mental health and substance abuse issues, as well as a near 150-pound weight gain - and not having fought any world-class competition in the months in the months leading up to that fight to prep himself. It seems even more boxing experts (including gambling "sharps" generally sharper at picking fights than myself) are picking Wilder to win by TKO/KO in tonight's rematch.

But despite all the concerns I've detailed above - including the recent trainer change and weight gain coming in to tonight's fight - I'm going to go against what seems to be the sentiment of most boxing experts and stick with my months-old (since the rematch was announced last Spring) prediction  that Tyson Fury will win his rematch with Wilder (and will win in likely decisive fashion).

Despite all the concerns I've noted above, at the end of the day Fury is the better-skilled, smarter, defensively-sharper, overall superior boxer who - by most boxing observers' estimation - decisively outboxed Wilder in their first fight, outside of the two rounds in the fight where he was knocked down. Yes, Wilder has proven himself to be one of the better knockout artists in boxing history, but I firmly believe the 12th-round knockdown in the first fight was more the result of Fury getting careless and believing he already had the fight won. (According to the official judges' scorecards, Fury would indeed have won the fight by split decision if he hadn't gotten knocked down in the last round). I see Fury ramping up his focus in the rematch and finding a way through his superior guile and fighting abilities - whether it be using his reach advantage and footwork to outbox Wilder from distance as he did in the first fight or using his size advantage and increased weight to impose his physicality on the inside as he's claimed he might do in the lead-up to the fight - to avoid the knockout punches he suffered when he got careless in the late stages of the first fight and box his way to a decisive victory.

One oft-repeated mantra of boxing is that in rematches between a boxer and a puncher, it is generally the (more fundamentally skilled) boxer who performs better in the rematch, as the boxer is typically more equipped to make the tactical adjustments necessary to more decisively outbox the puncher (given that the puncher is typically less diverse in terms of the range of his fighting abilities). Many are of the belief that it will actually be Wilder who performs better in tonight's fight, given that he did make adjustments in the late stages of the previous fight and given his history of improvement in rematches - as well as the room he has as a still somewhat raw fighter to improve in comparison to Fury, who many felt fought about as well as he could fight in the first match, yet still only earned a draw. But I think the boxer-over-puncher in rematches mantra will hold up in this fight (as it's more often than not held up in similar situations) and think Fury has trained to exploit the flaws in Wilder that he realized from the first fight (which is likely at least partly reflected in his decision to change trainers and come into this fight over 15 pounds heavier).

So I'm taking the superior boxer (Fury) to outbox and outwit the superior puncher (Wilder) in the rematch. While I think Fury most likely wins by decision, I prefer the bet of Fury simply to win (which can currently be had at +110 or better) given Fury's stated strategy of going into the fight with the purpose of trying to knock Wilder out in the early rounds (a strategy which is evidenced by Fury's trainer change and coming into this rematch at a heavier weight). I'm partially hedging the bet with a bet on the under 10.5 rounds (which I got early in the week at +110 but can still be had for around -115); this bet covers most scenarios where Wilder knocks Fury out but also covers most scenarios where Fury actually pulls off what it seems he's going into the fight with the full intention of doing - knocking Wilder out.

Lastly, I'd like to note that I largely view the Wilder vs. Fury rematch - both in the promotion of the fight and in the actual fight itself - as a (very well-played) game of optics; for the fight itself these "optics" I think have swayed even some boxing experts to the Wilder side of the ledger.

Optics present Wilder/Fury II as a megafight; one of the most anticipated heavyweight fights of this generation and perhaps the most anticipated heavyweight fight since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson back in 2002. But the reality is this fight might be the most over-promoted fight in the 100+ year history of boxing. The massive multi-million dollar, dual-network promotion invested in this fight belies the fact that the first Wilder/Fury fight only did 325,000 PPV buys and that both fighters have had disappointing ratings in *all* the fights they've appeared in since that first fight. Neither Wilder or Fury's name carries mainstream cache (the majority of Americans don't even know who they are) and as of right now just a few hours prior to the fight, there are still numerous tickets available for the fight in an arena with a capacity of approximately 17,000 for boxing events. As of now, neither fighter even has a solid hall-of-fame resume (though Wilder's is perhaps borderline); in sum, one would be very hard-pressed to believe the actual caliber of this fight comes even close to matching the promotional resources invested into it.

Wilder's knockdowns, most notably his dramatic knockdown of Fury in the 12th round of their previous fight, provide impressive optics for those who might otherwise have been inclined to believe Fury would win the rematch. The reality is, Fury did avoid Wilder's power for nearly the entire fight and - in my opinion - likely only got caught in the 12th round after getting careless thinking he had the fight won.

Wilder's "swagger" (for lack of a better term at this moment,) is yet another impressive optic. Coming from a family of preachers, Wilder was blessed with a gift of gab and exudes extreme amounts of confidence - not only in how he expresses himself verbally but in his overall demeanor. At the end of the day, Wilder has always gotten the job done in the ring. But I do also think the swagger, confidence, and optics of his knockdowns have overstated his actual abilities a bit and think he's been a bit overrated (by casual fans and boxing experts alike) as a result. While expressed differently, I do believe Fury has a comparable level of confidence and self-belief as Wilder to match his superior skills and believe that will show clearly in tonight's fight.

Prediction: Fury to win

Recommended bets: 1) Fury to win (bet to RISK 1 unit) 2) Wilder/Fury under 10.5 rounds (risk .5 unit)

Spence vs. Porter: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Errol Spence (25-0, 21 KOs) vs. Shawn Porter (30-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: September 28, 2019
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight and IBF World welterweight titles
TV: Fox PPV
Line (5 Dimes): Spence: -925, Porter: +725 (9/27/19)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Spence: #6 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked welterweight, Porter: #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Spence: Southpaw, Porter: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

The welterweight division (147 lbs) has long been considered by many to be the deepest and most talented division in boxing. The biggest debate within the division - and perhaps the biggest debate in all of boxing - is whether Errol Spence or Terence Crawford is the best welterweight boxer in the world.

The undefeated Crawford - signed to a Top Rank promotional company largely devoid of quality welterweight opposition - has unfortunately had limited opportunities to face other elite welterweights. Nevertheless, he's continued to impress since moving up to welterweight last year with TKO victories over an undefeated Jeff Horn (which earned him Horn's WBC welterweight title), an undefeated Jose Benavidez Jr., and a solid, skilled veteran in Amir Khan. Many feel it's a two-man race between only Crawford and Vasiliy Lomachenko as to who's the best boxer in the world pound for pound.

But this Saturday night, Spence gets to make his case as the best in the welterweight division (and perhaps in all of boxing) vs. an opponent likely better than anyone Crawford has faced in his career in Shawn Porter. Spence is coming off a highly impressive victory of his own in winning every round on all three judges' scorecards this past March vs. then-undefeated and pound-for-pound ranked Mikey Garcia; prior to washing Garcia, Spence won 14 of 15 fights - including 11 consecutive fights - by TKO/KO. The undefeated Spence has not only won, but dominated, every fight of his 25-fight professional career but now faces another elite welterweight in Porter, whose only two losses have been to a then-undefeated Keith Thurman (who lost the first fight of his career this past July to Manny Pacquiao) and to a then-undefeated Kell Brook (who lost to Spence in 2017).

This fight is intriguing as it may be the first time in Spence's career he's fighting an opponent who can match (and arguably even exceed) him in terms of pure strength and physicality. (Porter - a former star football player in high school - has the physical build of a football player and competed mostly as a middleweight (160 lbs) in his early professional career and as an amateur.) Given these attributes - and given Porter's underrated boxing IQ as well as decided advantage in experience vs. top-level welterweight opponents - this is likely the toughest fight Spence could make at welterweight other than a much-anticipated superfight with Crawford.

Spence vs. Porter - a welterweight unification title fight - will be Fox's 3rd boxing PPV fight this year (as well as 3rd in the history of the network) following fight-of-the-year candidate Pacquiao vs. Thurman this past July and Spence vs. Garcia back in March. The winner of this fight is set up nicely for a possible unification megafight (and likely 8-figure payday) next year vs. Pacquiao, the current WBA welterweight champion.

Prefight Analysis

Outside of Terence Crawford, I've felt for a while now that Porter might be the toughest challenge for Spence at welterweight. Unlike pretty much every other welterweight Spence has fought (with the exception of Brook, who was actually beating Spence on two out of three judges' scorecards through seven rounds prior to ultimately getting stopped in the 11th round), Porter is on the same level as Spence in terms of pure strength and physicality. Porter is a strong, stocky welterweight who is actually used to fighting boxers bigger than him - whether as an amateur or very early in his professional career where he fought mostly at middleweight or in sparring where his trainer (father Kenny Porter) routinely matches him up with middleweights and super middleweights. (Porter's training for Saturday night's fight included sparring sessions with an undefeated, elite former super middleweight champion in David Benavidez.) Given Porter's own physical strength and experience fighting bigger opponents, it's tough to imagine Porter getting overwhelmed by Spence's size (as has been the fate of most of Spence's recent opponents).

Porter has a more aggressive, physical style than Spence; that combined with his slightly faster hand speed I think will allow Porter to beat the more patient Spence to the punch and outwork him for much of the early rounds as Spence settles in to the fight. Porter is a somewhat versatile, underrated-IQ fighter who - while preferring to brawl from the inside - has shown in his last two fights (vs. Yorgenis Ugas and in his early rounds vs. Danny Garcia) that he's capable of using foot movement and feints to box from the outside. Porter's unpredictability here combined with his typically awkward, wide-swinging style I think could work well for Porter in the early rounds vs. the more cautious Spence as he tries to figure Porter out. Spence's head movement in particular isn't great which I think will leave him susceptible to Porter's counterpunching and generally sharp left hooks on the inside.

Porter should also be given credit for being the much more experienced boxer in this matchup, having fought top welterweights such as Keith Thurman (who was undefeated at the time), Kell Brook (who was undefeated at the time), Danny Garcia (whose only loss at the time was to Thurman), Adrien Broner, and Devon Alexander (whose only loss at the time was to Timothy Bradley). Porter also has history of being a sparring partner for Manny Pacquiao when Pacquiao was in his prime (in preparation for Pacquiao's 2009 fight with Miguel Cotto and 2011 fight with Shane Mosley).By comparison, the only top welterweight Spence has fought in his career was Kell Brook, who at the time was coming off a TKO loss to Gennady Golovkin at middleweight.

Porter strikes me as the more determined fighter and arguably has more to prove than Spence does, as most folks seem to be writing this fight off as an easy one for the approximately 10-1 favorite Spence. But at least early, I expect this fight to surprise and be more competitive than most are expecting.

I do, however, think Spence will wear Porter down in the middle to late rounds with his punching power (in particular to the body) and superior technical skills. Spence has made it known that - unlike his most recent fight with Mikey Garcia where he largely outboxed Garcia from the outside - he's looking to make a statement and is gunning for a knockout victory vs. Porter. So after the early rounds, I expect Spence to apply pressure and try to fight Porter mostly on the inside. Porter can be elusive but I think given the PPV stage for this fight (Porter's first PPV fight and biggest fight of his career) that Porter (and his inner machismo) will look to trade punches with Spence on the inside more than he should (which I think will be to Porter's detriment). Porter has the hand speed and an aggressive enough style to outwork Spence but does not have the most defensively responsible technique on the inside. I see the power punches Spence will land from close range - especially to the body - being far more effective than Porter's pesky, but relatively innocuous style that has earned him only one TKO/KO victory in the last 4.5 years out of six fights. Though Porter is on Spence's level in terms of strength and physicality, I think Spence is a bit stronger and a bit more physical, with much greater punching power.

As the rounds progress, I think Spence - an underrated technician who dominated future hall-of-famer and four-division world champion Mikey Garcia largely by outboxing him from distance - will be increasingly effective in timing Porter with his jab and power punches. Porter has shown that he can box from the outside but note that Porter actually lost most of his early rounds vs. Danny Garcia while boxing from distance; Porter went on to win the middle rounds and the fight only after switching to a more brawling style inside. Also earlier this year, Porter barely eked out a split-decision victory boxing primarily from distance vs. a three-loss fighter in Yordenis Ugas, a fight some feel he lost. So Porter's best results might have to come from fighting inside which - unfortunately for him - will leave him more open to counterpunching and body shots from the bigger, harder-punching Spence, who is expected to be going for the knockout on Saturday night. I wouldn't be surprised if this fight becomes a mismatch on the inside by the later rounds.

Despite this I do, however, think Porter's elusiveness, determination, and grit will get him through the 12 rounds. As mentioned previously, Porter has a lot of experience fighting bigger guys and has also never even come close to being stopped in his professional career. Porter not only has horizontal elusiveness with his feet, he has great vertical elusiveness driven by his naturally low center of gravity that I expect to somewhat mitigate the effectiveness of Spence's power punches from close range.

If Spence were to stop Porter I think it would be (by far) the most impressive win of his career and would give him a solid case as not only the best welterweight boxer in the world but best boxer overall pound-for-pound. It wouldn't be surprising if Spence got the stoppage late but all things considered, the value I think lies with Porter surviving the distance in what should be a clear decision victory for Spence (though again I think the fight will be competitive early). I think there's value in both Spence by decision (which can currently be found at -140) and Spence by unanimous decision (which currently can be found at +115).

I will be at this fight Saturday night in Los Angeles - definitely hoping this one turns out to be every bit as good as Porter's fight-of-the-year candidate with Keith Thurman three years ago in NYC!

Prediction: Spence by decision

Recommended bet: Spence wins by any decision (bet to WIN .5 unit) 

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Canelo vs. Jacobs: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (51-1-2 35 KOs) vs. Daniel Jacobs (35-2, 29 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 4, 2019
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World middleweight, WBA Super World middleweight, and IBF World middleweight titles
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line: Alvarez: -430, Jacobs: +380 (5 Dimes, 5/2/19)
Purse: Alvarez: $35 million, Jacobs: $2.5 million (though will be guaranteed over $10 million for this fight per terms of his contract with DAZN)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #3 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Jacobs: #2 ranked middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Jacobs: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Why you should watch this fight

In mid-October of last year, Canelo Alvarez signed what at the time was the largest contract for a single athlete in sports history - a 5-year, 11-fight deal worth at least $365 million with sports streaming service DAZN. A few months later, Gennady Golovkin - winless after two (very) controversial decisions vs. Canelo that knocked him from the top of many pound-for-pound rankings - followed suit in signing a lucrative deal of his own, also with DAZN (3-year, 6-fight deal reportedly worth at least $100 million).

Given the two signings (combined worth nearly half a billion dollars), all signs point to a third fight between Golovkin and Canelo either this September or in May 2020 at the latest, a fight which might cap what will likely go down as one of the great trilogies in the history of boxing. But before the much-anticipated third fight, Canelo must first get through what will likely be a tough, competitive unification fight with IBF middleweight champion Danny Jacobs.

Since Floyd Mayweather Jr.'s retirement, Canelo has been (by far) boxing's biggest PPV attraction and is considered by many to be the most popular fighter in the sport. (With the emergence of sports streaming services like DAZN and ESPN+, Canelo might even go down in history as boxing's last true PPV star.) At just 28 years old, Canelo is still in the middle of his prime and coming off of two big wins in 2018  - a 3rd-round knockout of Rocky Fielding this past December that earned Canelo the WBA super middleweight title (the third division in which he's won a major title) and the biggest win of his career last September vs. then-undefeated, #1 pound-for-pound ranked Golovkin.

This Saturday, Canelo will face Jacobs in just the 2nd fight of his 11-fight contract with DAZN. On the surface, the fight with Jacobs is just an interim fight for Canelo warming him up for the inevitable 3rd mega-fight with Golovkin. But Jacobs is an outstanding, A-level boxer with elite punching power (78% KO ratio, which includes - with the exception of his loss to Golovkin - either a knockdown or knockout in each of his 16 fights over the past 8.5 years) who is poised to give Canelo fits with his size and reach advantage, superior speed and athleticism, and ability to box on the move. Jacobs is also a composed but determined, high IQ fighter who fought a very competitive fight with Golovkin in 2017. (I was at this fight and actually scored it 114-113 for Jacobs despite betting on Golovkin to win by TKO/KO.) Jacobs' close, unanimous decision loss to Golovkin actually ended Golovkin's 9-year, 23-fight KO streak.

The winner of Saturday's fight will be the unified WBC, WBA, and IBF middleweight champion and is likely headed for a mega-fight rematch with Golovkin next. Assuming the winner of Canelo vs. Jacobs does fight Golovkin next, what looms after the fight with Golovkin is a unification fight vs. WBO middleweight champion (and fellow DAZN-signed fighter) Demetrius Andrade for the undisputed middleweight championship. Whoever earns that undisputed middleweight championship will be the 1st undisputed middleweight champion since Jermain Taylor in 2006.

Saturday night will be Canelo's record 5th time fighting at T-Mobile Arena since the venue opened in 2016 and 12th time overall fighting in Las Vegas. (Saturday night will be Jacob's 1st time fighting at T-Mobile and 1st time fighting in Las Vegas since 2010.)

Prefight Analysis

There's a lot to like about Daniel Jacobs in this matchup. Besides having excellent power at middleweight (to the extent that Golovkin - who has never been knocked down or knocked out as an amateur or pro - had to respect Jacobs' power, staying cautious throughout large stretches of the fight), Jacobs is the naturally bigger, more mobile fighter with a 2.5" reach advantage. Canelo has struggled in the past vs. rangier fighters who move well (Mayweather, Erislandy Lara, Austin Trout); Jacobs certainly fits this description and is in many ways a bigger, stronger, more skilled version of a prime Austin Trout, who fought a close, competitive fight vs. Canelo in 2013 (that some observers felt he won - I scored that fight 114-113 for Canelo).

As he did with Golovkin, Jacobs should be able to at least in spots frustrate Canelo with movement behind a long jab; if anything Jacobs should have more success moving behind his jab vs. Canelo than he did vs. Golovkin given that Canelo is a bit more flat-footed, doesn't cut off the ring quite as well, and isn't quite the threat in terms of volume and punching power that Golovkin is.

At as high as a 4-1 (+400) underdog, I think Jacobs is being underrated in this matchup. Jacobs is an A minus/A-level fighter who has only lost twice in his career - his close, competitive loss to Golovkin in 2017 (again a fight which I actually edged to Jacobs despite betting on and rooting for Golovkin to win) and his 2010 5th-round TKO loss to Dmitry Pirog, a fight in which Jacobs was leading 3-1 on all three judges' scorecards at the time of stoppage. (Note that Pirog was a very highly regarded, undefeated prospect that many felt had the same level of talent as Golovkin coming up. Despite winning the vacant WBO middleweight title vs. Jacobs and successfully defending it for nearly two years, Pirog was forced to retire right before a scheduled fight with Golovkin because of a debilitating back injury suffered during training.) Jacobs is also a fighter who has either knocked down or knocked out each of his last 16 opponents over the course of the past 8.5 years years (with the exception of Golovkin). This list of opponents includes slick, elusive fighters who had never previously been stopped in their careers. In my opinion, Jacobs actually performed slightly better in his 2017 matchup with Golovkin than Canelo did in either of his two matchups with the Kazakh fighter - sticking behind his long jab and wearing Golovkin down in the later rounds with constant movement and timely punching.

Jacobs also comes across as a man of exceptional character and strong sense of determination - as evidenced inside the ring by how he performed after he got knocked down in the 4th round of his fight with Golovkin and outside the ring by how he overcame a rare form of bone cancer where Jacobs was told by doctors he would never box again and might not ever walk again. Any man who has overcome what Jacobs has overcome in life won't be intimidated by Canelo or the prospect of fighting what will be by far the biggest fight of his career in front of a hostile, Canelo-friendly crowd. I expect Jacobs to put up a solid performance vs. Canelo, frustrating a smaller, less athletic, relatively flat-footed Canelo with length and constant movement, which I think may re-introduce the stamina issues Canelo has had in several fights in his career, including his 1st fight with Golovkin.

With all this said, I do think Canelo probably wins this fight. I see Canelo as (perhaps by far) the more skilled, accurate power puncher, particularly when executing his body attack. Jacobs has good movement but I think Canelo will be able to counterpunch effectively in spots where Jacobs is throwing his own power punches within range. Jacobs may win the jab battle from distance but I see Canelo getting the better of close-range exchanges, which typically make more of an impression on the judges in terms of scoring. Note that Maciej Sulecki who, like Canelo, is an effective combination puncher with fast hands, had success landing power punches in many stretches of his fight last year with Jacobs - a fight that was close and competitive until Jacobs knocked Sulecki down in the 12th round. Canelo is in many ways a (much) more skilled, heavier-handed version of Sulecki; it is likely with his superior skills and accuracy that he will have more success landing power punches on Jacobs than even Sulecki did.

Scoring seems to play a controversial (and often pivotal) role in most of Canelo's big fights. At this point you have to think that there's a good chance that this will again be the case Saturday night, especially given that the three judges for the fight (Dave Moretti, Glenn Feldman, and Steve Weisfeld) will be the same three judges that controversially scored Canelo's 2nd fight with Golovkin in favor of Canelo. (Canelo's 2nd fight with Golovkin was a very close fight that most felt Golovkin edged.) Canelo is the biggest draw in in the sport and - from a boxing politics standpoint - is certainly the favored, more heavily promoted fighter in this matchup. Canelo is only the second fight into one of the largest contracts for an individual athlete in the history of pro sports; a loss for Canelo here could (at least from a monetary standpoint) be semi-devastating for DAZN and the sport of boxing as a whole. Canelo has gotten (very) favorable scoring in every big fight of his career (most notably including one judge scoring his 2013 fight with Mayweather - a fight most felt Mayweather clearly dominated - a draw and another judge scoring 10 out of 12 rounds of his 1st fight with Golovkin in his favor - a score which even Canelo and his promoter Oscar De La Hoya disagreed with). I feel there is a good chance biased scoring could come into play yet again Saturday night in what will likely be a close and competitive fight.

Jacobs is older but Canelo is the decidedly more experienced fighter, having essentially fought a who's who list of boxers since his early 20s. This experience - along with the wide variety of styles Canelo has faced throughout the prime of his career - is one of the reasons he seems to get (noticeably) better with each fight. As a fighter still in the middle of his prime I think there's a good chance we'll see an even further improved Canelo in Saturday's fight.

While not as fast as Jacobs on foot, Canelo has deceptively fast hand speed (i.e., likely faster hand speed that Jacobs) which is one of the reasons I anticipate he'll be able to counter Jacobs effectively within range, especially to the body. Despite Jacobs' physical advantages I wouldn't be surprised if Canelo stops Danny given his ability - which perhaps is the best in boxing at the moment - to throw fast and varied power punch combinations with accuracy.

Given Canelo's advantages in skill and experience, along with what I suspect will be a fight scored with at least a shade of pro-Canelo bias in front of what will be an overwhelmingly pro-Canelo crowd on Cinco De Mayo weekend at T-Mobile Arena, I grade Canelo as roughly a 70/30 favorite to win this fight. But, Jacobs is currently being listed as a nearly +400 underdog at many sportsbooks (currently as high as +405 at Bet Online) which implies that sportsbooks feel Jacobs has roughly only a 20% chance to win the fight. Given what I believe to be an undervaluation of Jacobs in the sportsbook market for this fight I actually think taking Jacobs to win is the bet with the best value (despite the fact that I do grade Canelo as a strong favorite to win this fight). If I felt sketchy judging definitely wouldn't be a factor I would take Jacobs to win at those odds quickly without even thinking about it; Jacobs is a highly skilled fighter with a combination of size, power, reach, and determination than Canelo has never seen before which I think at minimum makes Jacob a very live underdog.

Again, I think Jacobs likely loses this fight and - given the politics surrounding the fight and history of scoring in big fights involving Canelo - it's tough to envision Jacobs winning by decision on the scorecards. But I think at nearly 4-1, the odds are too good to pass up a bet on Jacobs given his elite-level skills and the numerous physical advantages he'll have in this matchup. So I'll be taking a small bet on Jacobs to win with an even smaller bet on a draw (at 20-1) as pure value plays.

But this fight could go a number of ways - I'll be in attendance and will be looking forward to see how everything pans out!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bets: 
1) Jacobs to win (.25 unit) 
2) Alvarez/Jacobs draw (.1 unit)

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Errol Spence vs. Mikey Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Errol Spence (24-0, 21 KOs) vs. Mikey Garcia (39-0, 30 KOs)
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Date: March 16, 2019
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  IBF World welterweight title
TV: Fox PPV
Line: Spence: -360, Garcia: +325 (5 Dimes, 3/16/19)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Spence: #10 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked welterweight, Garcia: #7 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked lightweight
Style: Spence: Southpaw, Garcia: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

While well-known amongst boxing fans, Errol Spence and Mikey Garcia are far from household names in the mainstream sports world. But Spence vs. Garcia is probably one of the more intriguing matchups of the past several years. Spence vs. Garcia is the first matchup featuring two undefeated, Ring Magazine top 10 pound-for-pound fighters since Andre Ward fought Sergey Kovalev in 2016 and is the first such matchup (between undefeated, top 10 pound-for-found-rated fighters) at welterweight  since Floyd Mayweather Jr. fought Ricky Hatton in 2007.

Errol Spence - the current IBF welterweight champion of the world - is an undefeated former Olympian who is considered by many to be the best fighter in arguably the most talented weight division in the sport. Spence is a skilled, versatile boxer who's used his typical advantages over his opponents in size, speed, power, and athleticism  to not only win, but dominate every fight of his 24-fight professional career. Spence has won 14 of his last 15 fights - including his last 11 - by TKO/KO.

This Saturday night Spence will face Mikey Garcia, another undefeated fighter who is trying to become only the 6th 5-division champion in the history of the sport (Manny Pacquiao, Mayweather, Oscar De La Hoya, Sugar Ray Leonard, and Thomas Hearns), a feat which would make his already likely future induction into the International Boxing Hall of Fame a certainty.

Like most opponents on Spence's resume, Garcia - a natural lightweight (135 lbs) - will come into Saturday night's fight as the smaller fighter with disadvantages in power, speed, and athleticism. But Garcia is an immensely talented fighter who most would consider to be the more skilled boxer with the higher ring IQ. Garcia is blessed with a unique combination of power, accuracy, timing, and efficient footwork that Spence has never seen before and will have to respect if he wants to win this fight.

This will be the first fight of Garcia's career as an underdog (+325 at the time of this blog) and will likely be by far the toughest fight of his career to date. But if Garcia - who spent the majority of his career at featherweight (126 lbs) and super featherweight (130 lbs) - can beat the man considered by many to be the best (and most avoided) welterweight in the world in his first fight as a welterweight, he'll become an instant boxing legend, a legend in the Mexican-American communities of the United States, and perhaps even a legend back in his parents' home country of Mexico.

If Spence wins the fight (as expected by most), it'll likely set the stage for a title unification super fight vs. one of the other elite welterweight title holders promoted by Premier Boxing Champions - Shawn Porter, Manny Pacquiao, or Keith Thurman - either later this year or early 2019 at the latest.

Spence vs. Garcia will be the first boxing pay-per-view (PPV) ever carried by the Fox network and the second boxing PPV to take place at the 105,000+ capacity AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (home of the National Football League's Dallas Cowboys) - the first being Canelo Alvarez vs. Liam Smith in 2016.

Prefight Analysis

The outcome of Saturday night's fight largely depends on on how well Garcia's skills carry up to welterweight. Most observers agree that Garcia is probably the better pure boxer and all-around more skilled fighter in this matchup. To date Garcia has also probably had the more impressive career, having already won major world titles in 4 weight divisions and already likely secured a future spot in the International Boxing Hall of Fame behind his elite punching power in both hands complemented with exceptional timing, punch accuracy, and footwork.

Earlier this winter, Garcia spent 5 weeks of his training camp with world-renowned sports nutritionist Victor Conte to build muscle mass and gain strength - while retaining quickness and speed - for his move up to welterweight. If Garcia is able to carry his punching power up to welterweight without losing reaction time and the ability to move on his feet that he had at lower weights than this fight is much closer to a true 50/50 fight than the 75/25 to 80/20 fight the oddsmakers currently have this matchup graded as. Behind one of the best power jabs in the sport and the ability to counter accurately off his back foot, Garcia is very capable of performing better than then-IBF welterweight champion Kell Brook in his May 2017 fight vs. Spence, who on two of the three official judges' scorecards outpointed Spence over the first five rounds of their fight.

Garcia's patient, yet accurate and concussive punching power could be the perfect antidote to Spence's aggressive, lunge-forward style as Spence has shown susceptibility to clean counters when executing his attack (as seen in his early rounds vs. Brook).

There is a reason why Garcia sought out this fight and is extremely confident headed in to this matchup. Spence is a very good to perhaps great fighter but Garcia may just be a historically great fighter - a win Saturday night in his first fight at welterweight vs. the man many consider the best (and most avoided) fighter in the division will go a very long way towards proving that.

But, at the end of the day, I think the natural weight deficiency will be (way) too much for Garcia to overcome. It's been rare but we have seen instances of boxers moving up multiple weight classes to win a major title vs. an elite fighter in only their first fight at that weight class. But we've never seen a fighter move up two weight classes to beat the guy many consider to be not only the best fighter in the weight class, but also the best power puncher in the weight class with the highest knockout ratio (88%) in the division.

The weight discrepancy is further compounded by the fact that Spence is considered big for the weight class. Spence is currently the IBF welterweight champ but he's a very big, physically-imposing welterweight with a football background to boot. There is little doubt he would be the best fighter at super welterweight if he moved up to 154 pounds and he would likely be a highly successful fighter even at middleweight (160 lbs). As talented as Garcia is - and perhaps he really is the historically great talent many seem to think - one has to wonder what kind of chance a natural lightweight realistically has vs. a fighter with the athleticism and power that Spence has and vs. a fighter is Spence who could conceivably fight at an elite level at as high as middleweight. Garcia has in the past been knocked down by a light-fisted puncher at super featherweight (Roman Martinez) and - although he won the junior welterweight (140 lbs) title decisively last March vs. Sergey Lipinets - he was hit cleanly quite often by the tough Russian and didn't come close to stopping him offensively. In that fight vs. Lipinets, the skill discrepancy between Garcia and the Russian was apparent but Lipinets' size and toughness kept the fight somewhat competitive, particularly in the middle rounds where he had his most success. If Lipinets could stay competitive with Garcia at 140 lbs, I quite frankly see a (much) bigger, stronger, more athletic and skilled Spence being infinitely more competitive to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if it's an easy fight for him this Saturday night.

The theory behind this fight between a natural lightweight in Garcia and a pseudo-middleweight in Spence being competitive is based primarily on the thought that Garcia's skill advantage gives him a real shot but Spence's skills are being (way) underrated here. Again, Spence is a fighter who has not only beaten, but dominated every fighter who has stepped inside the ring with him. This included a domination of Brook - who many considered to be one of the most skilled pound-for-pound fighters in boxing at the time and who arguably is on the same level as Garcia in terms of skill - in Brook's home country to win the IBF welterweight title. This also included a quick 5th round destruction (in April 2016) of former WBO light welterweight champion Chris Algieri, a feather-fisted but slick and very mobile fighter who even Manny Pacquiao was unable to stop through 12 rounds. (That 5th-round stoppage was the first and only stoppage loss of Algieri's career.)

To be fair, Spence's resume isn't too impressive outside of Brook, gritty veteran (and former 2-division champion) Lamont Peterson (who Spence defeated last year by 7th-round stoppage), and maybe Algieri but Garcia's resume is also far from noteworthy. There's irony in Garcia being considered by many (including myself) to be a future likely future hall-of-famer, yet through 39 professional fights, he has yet to face another hall-of-fame caliber fighter himself.

The expected fight dynamics don't work too well in Garcia's favor either. Garcia is typically a slow starter and not the most active puncher in terms of volume. Even Adrien Broner - another notoriously slow starter and low-volume puncher who stayed ultra-conservative throughout his unanimous decision loss to Garcia in 2017 -  was able to win four rounds on two judges scorecards vs. Garcia, including two of the first four rounds. Garcia's tendency to start slow and pick up the pace in the middle rounds may not work well against a bigger, more active and aggressive fighter like Spence who has solid stamina and a proven ability to finish strong in the later rounds (see Spence's 11th round stoppage of Brook despite Brook's successes in the early rounds).  

Garcia has one of the best jabs in boxing but Spence has a solid jab of his own and a 4" reach advantage that will at least to some degree mitigate the effectiveness of Garcia's jab. Spence is also a devastating body puncher - perhaps the best in the sport today - which I'd expect to neutralize Garcia's counter punching as the fight progresses.

Especially given Garcia's soft body physique, I do think Spence's body punching will play the biggest role in what I expect to be a clear and decisive win for him Saturday night. Garcia is a tremendously intelligent and talented fighter but I think Spence's natural advantages in size, pure strength, athleticism, and punching power will be too much for him to overcome - especially in the later rounds.

Given Spence's physical advantages and the fact that he's won 14 out of his last 15 fights - including his last 11 - by TKO/KO, I think the most likely result of Saturday's fight is Spence by TKO/KO. But given Garcia's technical prowess - which includes solid fundamentals defensively - and ability to move well on his feet, I wouldn't be surprised if he lasts the full 12 rounds in what I still think would be a clear unanimous decision victory for Spence. While Spence to win by stoppage (currently being offered at better than even money odds) and Spence to win in rounds 7-12 (currently offered at better than 2-1 odds) are solid bets with strong value (and are bets I've placed smaller side wagers on), the bet I like the most here for mitigation of risk is Spence to win by KO or unanimous decision, currently being offered at 5Dimes at approximately -175 odds.

Spence vs. Garcia is a true legacy-defining fight and by far the most important fight of both fighters' careers. It will be interesting to see how both fighters - both of whom are typically very calm and composed by nature - perform in the big moment!

Prediction: Spence by TKO/KO

Recommended bets: 1) Spence by KO or unanimous decision (bet to WIN 1 unit) 

2) Spence by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to RISK .25 unit)

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Wilder vs. Fury: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Deontay Wilder (40-0, 39 KOs) vs. Tyson Fury (27-0, 19 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: December 1, 2018
Weight class: Heavyweight
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World heavyweight title
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Wilder: -155, Fury: +145 (5 Dimes, 12/1/18)
Purses: Wilder: $4 million, Fury: $3 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Fury: #7 ranked heavyweight
Style: Fury: Orthodox, Wilder: Orthodox
Referee: Jack Reiss

Why you should watch this fight

Wilder vs. Fury is one of the most anticipated fights of the year - an intriguing matchup between two elite heavyweights with a combined record of 67-0 and 58 KOs for the WBC heavyweight title currently held by Wilder. The winner of this fight will be in line for a possible unification superfight with undefeated IBF, WBA, and WBO heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua in 2019 in a fight that may result in the first undisputed heavyweight champion since Lennox Lewis in 2000.

Wilder vs. Fury will be the first heavyweight fight in the U.S. carried as a pay-per-view since Mike Tyson's last fight vs. Kevin McBride in 2005.

Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury have similar gregarious, charismatic personalities but have contrasting boxing styles. Wilder - who is coming off of what might have been the best fight of the year thus far in his thrilling TKO victory over Luis Ortiz this past March - has knocked out every opponent he's faced in his career, relying nearly entirely on the brute, raw knockout power he possesses in both hands (particularly his devastating right hand, which has been the impetus for most of his knockouts). With previously undefeated mega-power punchers Sergei Kovalev and, more recently, Gennady Golovkin suffering losses over the past couple of years, Wilder - with a historically impressive knockout percentage of 98% over 40 career fights - is now widely considered to be the top knockout artist in the sport.

Fury, on the other hand, is perhaps the most all-around skilled boxer in the heavyweight division, having relied much less on power and more on his high boxing IQ and savvy to decisively outbox or stop every opponent he's faced in his boxing career. Despite being 6'9" and over 250 pounds, Fury moves extremely well for his size and is deceptively elusive on defense. Offensively, Fury possesses an awkward style from range (behind an 85" reach) featuring generally accurate punches from often unpredictable angles that perplexes many of his opponents, as well as an ability to box skillfully on the inside.

Whatever advantages Wilder possesses coming into this fight in terms of punching power and athleticism, Fury has comparable advantages in terms of technique and pure boxing skills.

Although Fury has fought twice this year, both fights were "tune-up" fights against inferior, C-level opponents; Fury hasn't fought a meaningful, competitive fight since his unanimous decision victory three years ago (November 2015) vs. Wladimir Klitschko. Since that fight with Klitschko, Fury announced his retirement from boxing and, shortly thereafter, experienced drug, alcohol, and mental health issues. During his retirement, Fury's weight ballooned to over 400 pounds; he's had to lose around 150 pounds over the past year to get back into top-level fighting shape.

Wilder vs. Fury is taking place at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. This will be the first fight promoted by Al Haymon's Premier Boxing Champions series to air on pay-per-view.

Why Deontay Wilder will win

Record of accomplishments: Wilder is the current WBC heavyweight champion, having held the title for nearly four years after a wide unanimous decision victory vs. Bermane Stiverne in January 2015. Wilder is 40-0, with 39 of those wins (98%) coming by knockout; the lone decision of Wilder's career came in the aforementioned unanimous decision victory vs. Stiverne. Wilder scored a 1st round KO victory vs. Stiverne in their rematch last year; with that knockout victory over Stiverne, Wilder has knocked out each of the 39 opponents he's faced in his professional career. A former football player (at the tight end position) in high school, Wilder didn't start boxing until he was 20 years old. But Wilder rose through the ranks quickly, winning the National Golden Gloves and U.S. national amateur heavyweight championships in 2007 - less than two years after he started boxing. The following year, Wilder earned a bronze medal as a heavyweight at the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing. Tonight, Wilder will be making his eighth consecutive title defense of his heavyweight belt.

Advantages in power and athleticism: Wilder has knocked out every opponent he's faced in his career (39 opponents in 40 fights) behind legitimate one-punch knockout power in both hands - especially his right hand which he uses to throw his favorite and most lethal punch, the overhand right. Wilder's punching power is arguably the most effective and sudden game changer in all of professional sports, on multiple occasions turning what were close and competitive fights into knockout victories (see Wilder's last fight vs. Ortiz and his recent fights vs. Gerald Washington and Artur Spilka).

With 19 KO victories in 27 fights (70% wins by TKO/KO), Fury has respectable punching power but doesn't have power comparable to Wilder and has less power than even Wilder's two most recent opponents (Ortiz and Stiverne). Fury's relative lack of sudden power should enable Wilder to take more chances and be more aggressive in certain spots than he was in the Ortiz and Stiverne fights. Fury is undefeated and elusive defensively, but he actually has been knocked down early by a smaller heavyweight with considerably less punching power than Wilder (2nd round of Fury's April 2013 fight vs. Steve Cunningham). If a small heavyweight with a career TKO/KO percentage of 33% who actually fought the majority of his career at cruiserweight (maximum weight of 200 lbs) can knock Fury down, one could surmise that the top knockout artist in the heavyweight division (and perhaps the entire sport of boxing) in Wilder should have a much easier time putting Fury on the canvas.

A former football, basketball, baseball, and track athlete in high school, Wilder is a superior athlete to Fury. Fury is bigger, moves well, and has very good positional footwork for his size but Wilder is the stronger, quicker, and faster fighter. It also doesn't help that Fury comes into this fight with questionable conditioning. An eye test suggests that Fury's gotten himself back in world-class shape but Fury hasn't fought a meaningful, competitive opponent in three years (both of his opponents since coming out of retirement were 16-1 underdog, C-level fighters) and he weighed over 400 lbs as recently as last year. It is more likely than not that Fury's years away from meaningful competition and significant weight fluctuation since his retirement have had more of a negative than positive effect on his boxing abilities.

Aggressive, yet cautious: Wilder has a reputation of being overly aggressive, likely because of his at-times off-balance, wild swinging punches. But he actually more frequently employs a more cautious form of aggression - particularly in the early rounds of fights - behind foot movement and a long (83" reach) jab. As shown in his fight vs. Ortiz and first fight vs. Stiverne, Wilder is more than capable of being patient behind his jab and waiting for a decent opportunity to strike. At least early on, I suspect he'll utilize a similar strategy vs. Fury, staying behind his jab and not allowing the best counter puncher he's faced thus far in his career in Fury catch him out of position. With that said, Fury doesn't have the power of Ortiz or Stiverne and his physical conditioning is still a question, so I do expect Wilder to take more chances and increase his aggression as the fight progresses.

More heart/mentally stronger: Wilder - who will be making his eighth title defense tonight - is a confident, hungry fighter with a strong desire to be remembered down the road as one of the all-time great heavyweights. Compare that mentality with Fury, who retired, briefly un-retired, and then retired again after winning his first heavyweight title in 2015 vs. Klitschko. (Fury did not fight again for 2.5 years after winning the title vs. Klitschko.) Fury was scheduled to fight Klitschko again in a July 2016 rematch, but the rematch was postponed multiple times due to an ankle injury and multiple failed drug tests suffered by Fury. Fury ultimately vacated his title belts and retired from boxing citing mental health, drug, and alcohol issues.

One can surmise from evaluating their paths to Saturday's fight that Wilder is the more mentally stable fighter with superior determination and focus. Wilder showed impressive heart and determination in a fight-of-the-year candidate earlier this year vs. Ortiz, getting outboxed and nearly stopped in the 7th round of that fight before finding a way knock Ortiz down twice to win by stoppage in the 10th round. Three months after Wilder vs. Ortiz, Fury came out of retirement to fight Sefer Seferi, a farcical fight that involved quite a bit of clowning around and smiling by both fighters, and even a kiss on the lips prior to the first bell.

Fury will no doubt take Saturday's fight more seriously, but Wilder definitely strikes me as the more serious, mentally tougher fighter which could go along way towards overcoming Fury's advantages in size and technical skill.

Recent ring activity: Wilder has obviously been much more active than the recently un-retired Fury in recent years, having fought five times since Fury fought Klitschko in 2015 - mostly vs. respectable, top 20 heavyweights. His most recent fight was against a fighter in Ortiz that some rated (and perhaps even still rate) as high as a top 2 or 3 heavyweight in the world.

As mentioned previously, Fury has fought just twice since coming out of retirement this year, both "tune-up" fights vs. no-name, C-level opponents. Fury hasn't fought an elite opponent since defeating Klitschko three years ago and has undergone extensive treatment for substance abuse since then. Ring rust, the effort to overcome substance abuse issues, as well as the effort Fury had to make to lose approximately 150 lbs over the past year to get back into top-level shape might all crash down on Fury coming into the fight vs. Wilder and result in a poorer-than-expected performance later tonight.

Home country advantage: With this fight taking place in Los Angeles, Wilder is fighting 2,000 miles from his hometown of Tuscaloosa, Alabama and 2,800 miles from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York - where he's fought three out of his last five fights and developed a solid East Coast fan base. Although Wilder is headlining a boxing card on the West Coast for the first time in his career, he is fighting in his home country vs. a somewhat controversial, at-times obnoxious fighter from the United Kingdom in Fury. The charismatic, entertaining fighter from Alabama is expected to be a strong crowd favorite - which may influence the action inside the ring and perhaps even influence the judges on the outside.

Wilder has arguably been the beneficiary of favorable scoring in recent fights. Three of Wilder's last five fights - vs. Ortiz, Washington, and Szpilka - somewhat surprisingly had Wilder tied or ahead on the scorecards at the time of stoppage when it could easily be argued he should've been behind on the cards. (I had Wilder behind in the Ortiz and Washington fights at the time of stoppage.)

Why Tyson Fury will win

Record of accomplishments: Fury is a former unified IBF, WBA, and WBO heavyweight champion of the world, having won those titles in 2015 by beating Wladimir Klitschko - who until that point had been on an 11-year, 22-fight winning streak. In winning that fight vs. Klitschko, Fury also became the lineal heavyweight champion, a title Fury still claims today as no one has beaten him since the Klitschko fight.

Like Wilder, Fury is undefeated (27-0) with 19 of those wins coming via TKO/KO. Although he's been knocked down once in his career (in 2013 vs. Cunningham, a fight he would later come back to win in the middle rounds by stoppage) he's never truly been tested in his pro, winning all of his fights either by stoppage or clear unanimous decision. The most impressive win of Fury's career was his wide unanimous decision victory vs. Klitschko, beating the future first ballot hall-of-famer as a 3.5-1 underdog in the Klitschko-friendly confines of Germany, where Klitschko fought most of the fights in his professional career (50 out of 69 fights).

Fury is of Irish Traveller (Gypsy) heritage and comes from a long family line (reported to be 10 generations) of bare-knuckle fighters and traditional boxers.  (Bare-knuckle fighting has long been a popular tradition within Gypsy culture.)

Advantage in skill: In terms of technical skills, Fury is a (far) superior boxer to Wilder. At 6'9", 250+ pounds Fury has excellent dexterity, as well as very good head and foot movement for his size. Fury is perhaps the most versatile heavyweight we've seen in some years - he can box from an orthodox or southpaw stance, from range or from close distance, and coming forward as the aggressor or moving backwards as a counterpuncher. Fury's at-times constant movement makes him hard to hit and allows him to throw punches from unpredictable, awkward angles that are difficult for his opponents to anticipate. His skills are complemented with very respectable (and generally accurate) punching power, as he's won 70% of his fights by TKO/KO.

Even after his extended layoff, Fury is arguably still the most skilled heavyweight in boxing and will be the most skilled boxer Wilder has faced in his career - even more so that Ortiz, who outboxed Wilder for most of their fight before getting stopped late. Fury doesn't have Ortiz's power but is younger, quicker, moves better, is a savvier counter puncher, and is more solid defensively than Ortiz.

In his last title fight, Fury decisively outboxed Klitschko, who was past his prime but hadn't been beaten in 11 years and was known for being one of the most technically skilled heavyweights of this generation. Klitschko went on 1.5 years later in his next fight to knock down and nearly stop UK boxing superstar Anthony Joshua, who is undefeated and widely considered the #1 heavyweight in the world. Fury did not have any of the problems Joshua had with Klitschko, barely getting touched and winning nearly all of the early rounds comfortably before coasting in the later rounds to win a clear decision.

If a less-skilled, still somewhat raw fighter in Wilder can't get to Fury with his power and tonight's fight becomes a pure boxing match, Fury will almost certainly win a wide decision more convincingly than he did vs. Klitschko. Given Wilder's at-times undisciplined, "swinging" power punching motions which sometimes leave him open to clean counters, one also can't discount the possibility that Fury even stops him in the later rounds.

Advantages in size and reach: A key advantage Wilder has enjoyed in pretty much every fight of his career is his 83" reach. Wilder typically sets up his attack behind a jab that is longer than his opponent's, which allows him to mix in knockout power punches from distance without always having to worry about clean counters (since opponents with a shorter reach usually can't attack him as effectively from distance). But, with an 85" reach, Fury might be the first boxer Wilder has faced with a reach advantage over him. Fury beat a highly-skilled Klitschko largely utilizing his reach advantage and movement to elude Klitschko's jab and power attack; he could very easily utilize a similar reach advantage to outbox a fighter in Wilder who doesn't have near the experience or savvy Klitschko did.

Wilder is also still unproven as an inside fighter, actually having struggled from close distance vs. lesser opponents (see stretches of Wilder's fights vs. Washington, Spilka, and Eric Molina). Fury is a skilled inside fighter with sharper instincts and greater accuracy from close range. Do not be surprised if, in some spots,  Fury uses his 40+ pound weight advantage and superior boxing ability on the inside to score points and smother Wilder's punching power.

Prefight Analysis

If I knew with certainty that we'll see the same version of Fury tonight that we saw prior to his retirement in 2016, I'd take Fury to win this fight easily without even thinking about it. I've always rated Fury very highly; in my opinion, a prime Tyson Fury is the most skilled heavyweight since Lennox Lewis, who was the best heavyweight of this generation. I favor the skills of a  prime Fury even over a prime Wladimir Klitschko; a more disciplined, mentally stable Fury I think could've had a better career than the legendary Ukrainian.

Fury is the one fighter at heavyweight who has the reach to neutralize Wilder's jab. Fury also has the skills to elude Wilder's rangy power with his savvy, deceptively quick head movement and footwork. Again, Fury is a guy who - as a significant underdog - easily outboxed one of the all-time great heavyweights in Klitschko in Klitschko's adopted home of Germany. If Wilder can't reach Fury with his power Fury, in my opinion, is a near certainty to outbox a decidedly less-skilled fighter in Wilder, who has actually already been outboxed by many of the better heavyweights he's fought in recent years (Ortiz, Washington, Szpilka).

Beyond his long jab and power right hand, Wilder is somewhat limited in terms of pure skills. If tonight we get a Fury that's anything close to the level of pre-retirement Fury, I think Fury probably wins a wide decision (even wider than his win vs. Klitschko) or even stops Wilder in the late rounds.   
Really, this fight mostly boils down to which version of Fury we see tonight; honestly, this is nearly impossible to predict given Fury's recent 2.5-year layoff from the sport and the mental health, substance abuse, and weight issues he dealt with during his time outside of the ring. I could be (way) wrong but I lean towards the thinking that Fury is making a serious mistake jumping in only a few months after returning from retirement to fight an elite, more athletic heavyweight with historically great punching power like Wilder. I see years of ring rust (discounting Fury's two recent fights vs. C-level opponents, where ring rust was clearly evident), deteriorated conditioning, and Fury's still-questionable mental stability not faring well vs. Wilder's confident determination, superior athleticism, and power - even with Fury's still considerable advantage in skill. 

If Fury had given himself more time to tune-up vs. better competition prior to taking this fight I'd give him a much better chance to win but from what I've seen in his last two fights the ring rust is still there - he's not quite as quick or accurate as he was pre-retirement. I don't think Fury is quite ready yet to fight Wilder (or any of the other elite heavyweights for that matter). 

While I see Wilder being a bit patient early in an effort to establish his jab and gauge Fury from distance, I think by far the most likely outcome of this fight is Wilder by TKO/KO, maybe even in the early to middle rounds. Wilder by TKO/KO - which can currently be found at roughly even money (approximately +100) odds - is the lone bet I'll be taking for this fight. In case Fury is able to find his pre-retirement form and is in better condition than I'm expecting I would strongly consider hedging any potential losses on the Wilder by TKO/KO bet with Fury to win by unanimous decision, which can currently be found at as high as +365 odds (5Dimes).

Both inside and outside the ring I fully expect tonight's fight to be a show!

Prediction: Wilder by TKO/KO

Recommended bet: Wilder by TKO/KO (.5 unit)

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