Froch vs. Groves: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Carl Froch (32-2, 23 KOs) vs. George Groves (19-1-0, 15 KOs)
Location: Wembley Stadium, London, United Kingdom
Date: May 31, 2014
Weight class: Super Middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF Super Middleweight title, WBA Super World Super Middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Froch -165, Groves +155 (5 Dimes, 5/30/14)
Purse: Froch: ,  Groves:
Ring Magazine Rankings: Froch - #10 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked super middleweight), Groves - #5 ranked super middleweight
Style: Froch: Orthodox, Groves: Orthodox
Referee: Charlie Fitch

Positives for Froch

• Current Ring Magazine #10 pound-for-pound fighter.Tough, strong-willed boxer with one of the elite chins in the sport. Current IBF and WBA super middleweight champion.
• Highly experienced fighter. Over the past 4.5 years, has faced as tough competition as anyone in boxing, and has an impressive record of 11-2 in that span, losing only to undefeated current #2 pound-for-pound fighter Andre Ward and former 4-time super middleweight champion Mikkel Kessler (in Kessler's home country of Denmark). Those two losses are the only losses of Froch's career.
• Aggressive boxer with a very good jab. Per CompuBox stats, is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of number of jabs thrown and landed.
• Powerful, high-volume boxer with grade A stamina. Nearly always outworks his opponent (which often helps on points in close fights). 
• Highly confident boxer who fights with tremendous heart. Has been knocked down twice in his career (including his last fight vs. Groves), but recuperated in both fights to win in the later rounds by TKO.Has shown a tendency to come on in later rounds after slow starts.
• Outstanding chin. Has been knocked down twice but has never been stopped (or been in real danger of being stopped) in his career. 

Negatives for Froch

• Froch has a tremendous chin and fights with great heart, but his boxing skills and athleticism are far from top-level; in major fights Froch is usually the inferior fighter in terms of skill.
• Though he ultimately won by TKO, Froch was decisively outboxed by Groves in their previous fight last November. Groves landed the left jab and overhand right with ease vs. Froch in the previous fight (particularly in the early rounds); unless Froch makes significant adjustments defensively, Groves will likely have similar success outboxing Froch in the upcoming fight.
• Froch lacks solid hand and foot speed; Groves will likely beat him to the punch as he did in the previous fight. Froch's best weapon is his jab, a punch he had trouble landing vs. the quicker Groves.
• Defensively, Froch is a highly flawed fighter with subpar footwork and head movement. Per CompuBox stats, Froch's opponents land 41% of power punches vs. Froch, 5th-worst among CompuBox-tracked boxers. 
• Froch is 36 years old entering a fight vs. a guy 10 years his junior who is arguably just entering the prime of his career.

Positives for Groves

• Former Commonwealth and British super middleweight titleholder. Slick, aggressive boxer with top-level technical skills. Has good hand/foot speed and very good punching power in both hands. 
• Has lost only once in his career, although the loss was by 9th-round TKO to Froch. Despite losing, Groves did clearly outbox Froch throughout the majority of the nine rounds and was winning the fight on all three judges' scorecards at the time of the stoppage. 
• This will be Groves' 2nd fight vs. Froch. Generally, rematches favor the more technically skilled fighter, who is more apt to make the adjustments necessary to win the fight. Groves not only has the advantage in skill vs. Froch, he has better hand/foot speed and arguably even has a more powerful punch than Froch. In the last fight vs. Froch, Groves consistently beat Froch to the punch, landing his left jab and overhand right seemingly at will during some stretches of the fight.
• Groves is solid defensively. Uses his foot speed to stay out of his opponent's range when he needs to. Did lose by TKO in his last fight vs. Froch but the stoppage was highly questionable. Groves has never been knocked down in his career.
• Groves is 26 years old (10 years younger than Froch) and entering the prime of his career. Although Groves lacks Froch's experience, he has fought very solid competition such as James DeGale and Glen Johnson, beating both by decision. 

Negatives for Groves

• Groves' chin is questionable after the TKO in his last fight vs. Froch. Although the stoppage was questionable, Froch did land some massive power punches which had Groves in trouble. If Froch can stop Groves once, he can certainly do it again. 
• Groves has shown stamina issues in previous fights (including the last fight vs. Froch) whereas Froch's punches are as powerful in later rounds as they are in the early stages of fights. If Groves again tires late in the fight, another late round stoppage is possible.
• In prefight appearances, Groves appears confident to the point of perhaps being overconfident. Groves has indicated he will stand in and trade in an attempt to win by knockout, which may prove to be the wrong strategy vs. a power puncher such as Froch.
• Compared to Froch, Groves is relatively inexperienced. Froch's experience and will-to-win may be the difference if the fight is close. 

Prefight Summary

This one is tough to predict. Potential fight-of-the-year candidate that could go either way. On the one hand you have George Groves, clearly the technically superior, faster boxer, who should have success outboxing Froch through a good portion of this fight (as he did in the previous fight). If Groves stays patient, uses his speed advantage to control distance, keeping this a pure boxing match (as opposed to a brawl), he will likely win a comfortable decision, if not get the TKO/KO at some point during the fight. Groves looked impressive in outboxing Froch throughout most of their first fight; he (and most boxing fans) felt the early stoppage in the previous fight was unfair and he will definitely be fighting with a chip on his shoulder in the rematch.

On the other hand you have Carl Froch, the veteran warrior with a granite chin and unquestionable heart. Despite Groves dominating much of the first fight and landing numerous clean power punches, Froch still found a way to win via TKO. Although the 9th round stoppage was highly controversial, Froch did clearly have Groves in trouble in that round and the fight appeared to be turning in Froch's favor with Groves tiring. If the fight hadn't been stopped at that point, it highly possible Froch would've earned a legitimate stoppage later in the fight or won on the scorecards if he controlled the last three rounds.

This matchup is nothing new for Froch; Froch has fought numerous top-level fighters who were considered technically superior with a speed advantage, and has beaten most, including Groves in their first fight.

I think this matchup will come down to Groves and the approach he takes in the fight. If Groves chooses to stay within distance of Froch and trade punches in the hopes of winning by TKO/KO (as he has indicated he may do in pre-fight appearances), I think Froch's chin will be able to withstand Grove's barrage and see the most likely scenario being Froch by mid/late round stoppage as Groves tires. But if Groves keeps his distance and boxes Froch (as he did in his fight vs. DeGale and as he did through much of the first fight with Froch), I believe Groves' skill and speed advantages should result in a clear decision in his favor.

 Ultimately, I think Groves will choose to fight a smart fight and outbox Froch from the outside, using his hand speed to beat Froch to the punch and using his foot speed to avoid Froch's power from close range. Froch has always been slow-footed and flawed defensively so I expect Groves will be able to land the same quality of punches he landed in the previous fight. Over the course of 12 rounds, Froch could certainly catch up to Groves at some point and end the fight early again with a heavy punch but I think Groves will be more cautious this time around.

In terms of betting, I favor Groves only slightly; this is a 55/45 fight that could go either way. But with Groves being a +155 underdog in a coin-flip matchup, my money will definitely be on Groves, who at the end of the day is the better boxer.    

Prediction: Groves by decision 

Mayweather vs. Maidana: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Floyd Mayweather (45-0-0, 26 KOs) vs. Marcos Maidana (35-3-0, 31 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 3, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC welterweight title, WBA Super World Welterweight title
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Mayweather -925, Maidana +725 (5 Dimes, 5/2/14)
Purse: Mayweather: $32 million,  Maidana: $1.5 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Floyd Mayweather - #1 ranked pound-for-pound, Maidana - #8 ranked welterweight
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, Maidana: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Positives for Mayweather

• Current Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound fighter. Master technician who is one of the greatest boxers in the history of the sport. Has been ranked #1 pound-for-pound for much of the past decade and is widely considered the greatest boxer of this generation. Future first ballot hall-of-famer and has yet to lose a fight (45-0 record). 
• One of the great defensive fighters in the history of the sport. Excellent footwork, speed, and defensive technique makes him nearly impossible to hit cleanly. Per CompuBox stats, opponents land only 18% of punches vs. Mayweather, the 2nd lowest percentage landed amongst all CompuBox-tracked boxers. (Only opponents of Guillermo Rigondeaux land a lower percentage of punches.) Mayweather has mastered the shoulder roll, pull counter, and a variety of other defensive techniques to the extent that his opponents consistently miss punches even when they have him pinned to a corner of the ring. 
• Possibly the most efficient fighter in the history of the sport. Mayweather lands 42% of punches thrown, which leads all CompuBox-tracked boxers. In terms of CompuBox statistics, Floyd has dominated nearly every fighter he's ever fought.
• Counterpuncher by nature who uses his speed and reflexes to make opponents miss before countering with an unpredictable assortment of straight right hands, jabs, and left hooks. Has a quick release which makes it extremely difficult for his opponents to time his punches. 
• Widely considered one of the smartest and fundamentally sound boxers in the history of the sport. Highly adept at reading his opponents and making technical adjustments over the course of the fight.
• Excellent at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Throws very accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body. 
• Has been criticized for the quality of his opponents but the majority of opponents Mayweather has fought over the past seven years were ranked in the Ring Magazine top ten pound-for-pound at the time they fought Mayweather. Including Maidana, Mayweather's last 13 opponents were either current or former major titleholders at the time they fought Mayweather.
• At 37 years old, Mayweather is in excellent shape, trains very hard, and does not overlook any opponent - even a heavy underdog like Maidana.

Negatives for Mayweather

• Although still widely considered the top boxer in the sport, Mayweather is 37 years old, a few years past his prime, and doesn't have quite the power and speed he had when he was younger (though his power and speed haven't slipped much). Will this be the fight where Mayweather's age finally catches up to him?
• Low-volume puncher who can get out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. (This was the case in his fight last year vs. Robert Guerrero, in which he arguably lost the first two rounds.)
• While Mayweather rarely gets hit cleanly, he has in the past shown susceptibility to power punches when they land. Whereas Canelo Alvarez was more low-volume, Maidana is a very high-volume power puncher which makes it possible he'll give Mayweather trouble at some point during the fight if he can get some of his punches to land.

Positives for Maidana

• Excellent power puncher with legitimate KO power in both hands. (31 of his 35 wins have come by KO.) One of the best KO boxers in the sport. Is capable of defeating Mayweather by TKO/KO if he can land some power punches. Maidana is currently in the prime of his career, while Mayweather is a few years past his prime.
• Very aggressive, high-volume puncher who is adept at cutting off the ring and applying pressure. Maidana's best punches are his right uppercut, left hook, and overhand right. Punches from awkward angles which makes it very difficult to anticipate his punches.
• Highly confident boxer coming off of the best fight of his career in defeating previously undefeated Adrien Broner for the WBA World welterweight title, a fight in which he knocked Adrien Broner down twice. (Broner had previously never been knocked down in his career.)
• Trainer is Robert Garcia, who is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  
• Maidana appears to have significantly improved his technical boxing skills - in particular his jab and body attack - under Garcia, who has trained him for his last four fights. (Maidana is 4-0 under Robert Garcia.) Maidana's defense has also improved a bit under Garcia.   
• Solid chin. Has been knocked down a few times in his career but has never been stopped. Has shown a tendency to fight well after being knocked down or facing pressure. 
• Gritty boxer who fights with a lot of heart/determination. 
• The crowd at the MGM Grand Garden arena will likely be pro-Maidana, especially if he has any kind of success within the first few rounds.

Negatives for Maidana

• Maidana is a very solid, but far from elite boxer fighting an opponent in Mayweather who is universally considered the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport today; is at a clear disadvantage vs. Mayweather in terms of talent, skill, and speed. Although he eventually got the KO, Maidana was in the past two years involved in very close fights with B-level fighters such as Josesito Lopez and Jesus Soto Karass so tough to see how he will have success vs. the #1 boxer in the sport. On the surface, it would appear Maidana's only chance to win the fight will be if he can land a lucky power punch to KO Mayweather.
• Maidana has had trouble in the past with fighters who move well on their feet (see Maidana's fight vs. Devon Alexander, in which he lost 10 out of 10 rounds on 2 out of 3 judges' scorecards). Mayweather moves as well on his feet as anyone in the sport (or anyone in the sport's history for that matter). Although he throws more punches, Maidana is slower on foot than even the flat-footed Canelo Alvarez, who was unable to catch up to Mayweather in Mayweather's last fight.
• Although one of the deadliest fighters in the sport pound-for-pound, Maidana is largely a one-dimensional boxer who is very predictable in his approach. (Come-forward, straight line puncher.) Maidana throws many of his punches from awkward, unpredictable angles, but he often telegraphs his punches with his wind-up movement and generally has to be stationary to set up one of his power punches. Throwing power punches from a stationary position will be extremely difficult to do vs. Mayweather.
• Although he has improved somewhat, Maidana is a poor fighter defensively. Maidana's aggressiveness often leaves his head and body exposed to counter punches. (The three times Maidana has been knocked down has been the result of body shots.) Maidana's defense is particularly weak on the inside, as was shown in the Devon Alexander fight.   
• Maidana's often throws wild punches. which sometimes leaves him out of position and open to the type of counterpunching Floyd excels at.

Prefight Summary

This should end up being an easy fight for Mayweather. Maidana, one of the hardest punchers in the sport, certainly has a puncher's chance (as he does in every fight), especially if he can get Mayweather pinned to a corner of the ring - a position Mayweather has willingly and comfortably fought from in previous fights. If Maidana can land power punches against Mayweather with Mayweather pinned to the corner of the ring, there's a reasonable chance Maidana *could* overwhelm Mayweather and pull off a shocking TKO/KO.

 But other than a lucky punch, this is Maidana's only chance to win the fight. In his last fight, Maidana was able to overwhelm a flat-footed Adrien Broner who stood in front of him the whole fight. Mayweather is a much more mobile fighter on his feet, capable of countering and potshotting while on the move, a style Maidana has had tremendous difficulty with in the past (most notably his fight with Devon Alexander where he arguably lost every round of a 10-round fight). Maidana does not have the foot speed or the technical skills to outbox Mayweather over the course of 12 rounds.

The thing to note when analyzing this fight is that there's a *big* difference between throwing punches well on the move vs. throwing punches well from a stationary position. Maidana has proven himself to be one of the hardest punchers in the sport when throwing punches vs. less mobile fighters standing right in front of him. For this fight vs. Mayweather, I expect Maidana will be unable to setup and throw the same quality of punches vs. arguably the most elusive fighter in the sport.

I anticipate Floyd being able to figure out Maidana in the early rounds and unmercilessly counterpunching the defensively inept Argentinian over the middle and later rounds for a wide unanimous decision victory. I expect Floyd to be so dominant that I actually wouldn't be surprised if he stops Maidana (who has never been knocked down or stopped in his career)  by TKO/KO in the later rounds. But the pick here is Floyd by easy unanimous decision. 

Prediction: Mayweather by decision