Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (55-1-2 37 KOs) vs. Billy Jo Saunders (30-0, 14 KOs)
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TexasDate: May 8, 2021
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World, WBA World, and WBO World Super Middleweight titles
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (BetAnySports): Alvarez: -725, Saunders: +550 (5/7/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine super middleweight champion, Saunders: #4 ranked super middleweight
Style: Alvaraez: Orthodox, Saunders: Southpaw
Why you should watch this fight
Canelo vs. Billie Joe Saunders will be the biggest fight of the year to date in front of what is widely anticipated to be a full-capacity crowd of well over 60,000 at AT&T Stadium in the Dallas, TX area - a crowd that would be the largest in the United States to attend a sporting event since COVID-mandated capacity limitations on crowds began in early 2020. Canelo vs Saunders is the biggest boxing event currently on the boxing calendar; at over 60,000 tickets already sold, the fight has already amassed sales that exceed the previous record for a Canelo boxing event - 51,420 for Canelo's 2016 WBO junior middleweight title fight vs. then undefeated UK champion Liam Smith.
Canelo - considered by many to be the #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport and biggest boxing star on the planet - is looking to unify his WBC and WBA super middleweight titles vs. undefeated WBO super middleweight champion Billie Joe Saunders in what could be his toughest fight since his rematch with then #1 pound-for-pound and undefeated Gennady Golovkin in 2018. Saunders is a slick, elusive southpaw who, while oft-criticized for fighting down to his level of opponents, could give the heavy betting favorite Canelo one of the toughest matchups of his certain future first ballot hall-of-fame career. As a junior middleweight (154 lbs), Canelo had trouble with other elite, mobile southpaws with a stiff jab - then undefeated WBA super middleweight champion Austin Trout in 2013 and Erislandy Lara in 2014 in fights many thought Trout and Lara won. Saunders provides Canelo's first test vs. a mobile, defensively responsible southpaw since those fights. vs. Trout and Lara (and provides that test as a bigger man two weight classes higher than those previous fights at 154 lbs).
Saunders comes into Saturday night's fight as the betting underdog for the first time in his career in what will be by far the biggest fight of his career. Will he rise to the occasion (as he's actually been prone to do when facing his toughest opponents) or will we see yet another flat performance (as we've actually seen more often than not vs. even B- and C-level opponents)?
The winner of Saturday night's fight will be the unified WBC, WBA, and WBO super middleweight champion of the world and is set up nicely to challenge undefeated IBF super middleweight champion Caleb Plant later this year to become the first undisputed super middleweight champion in boxing history and first undisputed boxing champion at any weight since Terence Crawford became undisputed light welterweight (140 lbs) champion back in 2017.
Canelo - considered by many to be the #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport and biggest boxing star on the planet - is looking to unify his WBC and WBA super middleweight titles vs. undefeated WBO super middleweight champion Billie Joe Saunders in what could be his toughest fight since his rematch with then #1 pound-for-pound and undefeated Gennady Golovkin in 2018. Saunders is a slick, elusive southpaw who, while oft-criticized for fighting down to his level of opponents, could give the heavy betting favorite Canelo one of the toughest matchups of his certain future first ballot hall-of-fame career. As a junior middleweight (154 lbs), Canelo had trouble with other elite, mobile southpaws with a stiff jab - then undefeated WBA super middleweight champion Austin Trout in 2013 and Erislandy Lara in 2014 in fights many thought Trout and Lara won. Saunders provides Canelo's first test vs. a mobile, defensively responsible southpaw since those fights. vs. Trout and Lara (and provides that test as a bigger man two weight classes higher than those previous fights at 154 lbs).
Saunders comes into Saturday night's fight as the betting underdog for the first time in his career in what will be by far the biggest fight of his career. Will he rise to the occasion (as he's actually been prone to do when facing his toughest opponents) or will we see yet another flat performance (as we've actually seen more often than not vs. even B- and C-level opponents)?
The winner of Saturday night's fight will be the unified WBC, WBA, and WBO super middleweight champion of the world and is set up nicely to challenge undefeated IBF super middleweight champion Caleb Plant later this year to become the first undisputed super middleweight champion in boxing history and first undisputed boxing champion at any weight since Terence Crawford became undisputed light welterweight (140 lbs) champion back in 2017.
Prefight Analysis
Seems like nearly all the signs in this matchup point to an easy victory for Canelo.
Still firmly in the prime of his career, Canelo is brimming with confidence as the #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the world, while Saunders is looking to finally attain the respect that's seemingly eluded him his entire career of being one of the elite boxers in the world.
Amazingly, Canelo seems even now to still be improving after each and every fight, while Saunders has slid by with lackluster performances in the majority of his recent fights.
Outside of future first ballot hall-of-famer and all-time great Manny Pacquiao, Canelo has the most impressive resume of any active boxer; Saunders' resume, on the other hand, is littered with domestic British-level contenders and other B- and C-level fighters. (Saunders arguably doesn't have a single A-level fighter on his resume.)
Canelo is the "A" side of this matchup, perhaps the biggest draw in the sport (and biggest draw of the post-Mayweather/Pacquiao generation) - a wildly popular fighter with a fan-friendly style facing a relatively unpopular fighter in Saunders notorious for controversial, distasteful behavior outside the ring and uninspired, snoozer performances inside.
Canelo will be fighting in front of a full-capacity crowd in Dallas, Texas where the overwhelming majority of the crowd will be there to root him on. Texas also happens to be a state notorious for partial scorecards in favor of the "A" side fighter. (Though Canelo has seemingly been the beneficiary of favorable judging regardless of fight location.)
And of course, Canelo just appears to be the more skilled, experienced, dedicated fighter in this matchup with a huge advantage in punching power. Canelo is expected by most boxing pundits to win this fight and I think he probably does get the win.
But, as a +550 underdog (translating to being given by oddsmakers just a 15.4% chance to win this fight), I see a little bit of value in taking Saunders to win. Although Saunders' resume is a bit lacking, he is an undefeated, two-division world champion with elite skills (particularly on the defensive end), great foot and upper body movement, and a consistently effective jab. As much as Canelo has improved in recent years, he hasn't fought a slick, elusive southpaw who can move and jab like Saunders since his close (and for some controversial) decision losses to Lara and Trout several years ago.
Canelo will always be a somewhat flat-footed fighter, which I think Saunders has the skill to exploit for large stretches of Saturday's fight with constant, responsible movement and timely counterpunching from his southpaw stance.
Note that, while he was certainly in trouble in multiple spots late in the fight, Saunders' countryman Callum Smith was able to last the distance just a few months ago in a unanimous decision loss to Canelo. Saunders doesn't have the size or punching power of Smith, but he is much better defensively - including being much more elusive and trickier than the often predictable and straightforward Smith.
Even with his fast hand speed and elite counterpunching ability, I think the slower-footed Canelo will have trouble - particularly in the early rounds of the fight - finding and adjusting to Saunders' movement and overall deceptive, awkward style. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Saunders outbox Canelo in several rounds and fully expect Saunders - who's never been knocked out or even knocked down in his professional career - to last the full 12 rounds vs. a relatively low-volume, plodding counterpuncher in Canelo. Yes, Canelo's counterpunching is timely, accurate, and packed with power that could stop Saunders at any point in the fight. But I think Saunders is the best defensive fighter Canelo has fought since his split decision victory vs. Lara and think Saunders will be mostly successful eluding Canelo's power and the traps he often sets for his opponents.
In any case, this will be the first fight (and sporting event overall) that I've attended since the pandemic began over a year ago so definitely looking forward to it!
In any case, this will be the first fight (and sporting event overall) that I've attended since the pandemic began over a year ago so definitely looking forward to it!
