Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (57-1-2, 39 KOs) vs. Dmitry Bivol (19-0, 11 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NevadaDate: May 7, 2022
Weight class: Light heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBA Super World light heavyweight title
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (Bovada): Alvarez: -600, Bivol: +375 (5/7/22)
Purse: Alvarez: $15 million, Bivol: $2 million (base salary; Canelo will also earn 70 percent of PPV sales with a reported cap of $40 million, while Bivol will earn 30 percent of PPV sales)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine super middleweight champion, Bivol: #2 ranked light heavyweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Bivol: Orthodox
Prefight Analysis
So there's a lot of straightforward reasons to pick Canelo here. For a few years now, he's been considered by many to be the #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the world - a future first ballot hall-of-famer still in the prime of his career with a rare combination of sublime skill, power, and ring IQ. Not to mention one of the best chins and overall defensive abilities in boxing on top of that. As impressive as he's been since his only loss nearly a decade ago to Floyd Mayweather, Canelo is arguably still continuing to improve with each fight as he's moved up in weight. Canelo's confidence also seems to be at an all-time high, as evidenced in his recent stoppages of naturally bigger, more mobile, undefeated champions in Billy Jo Saunders and Caleb Plant who most - myself included - figured would at least be able to last the distance vs. a relatively flat-footed Canelo.
Canelo certainly also has an advantage in experience, having the best resume of any active fighter in boxing, having fought a who's who of elite fighters (across a wide variety of fighting styles) in his 60-fight career, and routinely fights on the biggest stage in boxing in front of massive crowds. Tonight he'll be facing a relatively inexperienced opponent in Bivol who has only 19 career fights and whose best win came in 2019 vs. current WBO light heavyweight champion Joe Smith Jr. - a solid but still somewhat raw and undisciplined fighter that very few if any would consider one of the elite fighters in the sport.
Canelo's versatility and savvy both offensively
and defensively might be too much for a relatively straightforward, primarily
1-2 puncher in Bivol who seems to lack true knockout power vs. the best
fighters in his weight class, with his last six fights at light heavyweight
having gone to decision without Bivol scoring even a single knockdown.
Even if this fight turns out to be competitive and close, it's difficult to imagine Bivol getting a decision given Canelo's long and notorious track record of getting the benefit of the doubt on judges' scorecards. On Cinco de Mayo weekend, the uber-popular Mexican boxing superstar will almost certainlybe the beneficiary of favorable scoring vs. atherelatively unknown, unheralded Russian fighter - especially given the current anti-Russian social and political climate. Bivol is undefeated and been a champion at 175 lbs for five years but he's a nearly 4-1 underdog for good reasons. There's seemingly too much Bivol might have to overcome - both inside and outside the ring - to upset the A-side of this matchup... who happens to be boxing's #1 cash cow and one of the biggest draws in all of sports.
Albeit for relatively
small wagers, I've been (incorrectly) betting against Canelo for some time now.
Maybe (or probably) I'm the sucker when it comes to odds against Canelo but I
think this is arguably the strongest opportunity to bet against Canelo
since his fight vs. Mayweather back in 2013. As quite possibly the best
light heavyweight boxer in the world, Bivol is being severely underrated in
this matchup. Yes, he's inexperienced at the elite level, but he's undefeated
in his career and made fights vs. very solid opponents such as Joe Smith, Isaac
Chilemba, Jean Pascal, and Sullivan Barrera look easy, with multiple judges in
each of those fights either scoring the fight a shutout or giving Bivol's
opponent only one round for the entire fight. While Bivol's last six fights
have gone to decision, he stopped 11 out of the first 13 opponents he faced in
his career, which is evidence that Canelo will have to respect his power
somewhat.
As great as Canelo is - I think there's a chance he might be biting off more
than he can chew at 175 lbs. Canelo has fought only one other time at light
heavyweight, in November 2019 when he fought a washed, past-prime Sergei Kovalev
in a fight that was very competitive until Canelo scored an 11th round KO
stoppage. (I had Kovalev up two points at the time of stoppage; one of the
official judges had it a draw.) Bivol, unlike Kovalev was when he fought
Canelo, is still in his prime, undefeated, adept at boxing on his feet, and I
think overall will have much more success fighting from distance behind his
power jab than Kovalev, Saunders, and Plant did to varying extends when they
fought Canelo.
Like Canelo, Bivol is an elitely-skilled, highly efficient puncher who is also defensively responsible and excellent at managing distance. Per CompuBox, Bivol is second only to long-time Canelo rival Gennady Golovkin in total number of jabs landed per round amongst all active boxers. (Golovkin's jab was effective vs. Canelo in both fights he had against the Mexican superstar; I think a bigger, more mobile Bivol can be comparably effective with his jab even if the jab doesn't have as much power behind it as Golovkin's.) Per CompuBox, Bivol is also second (to current WBO middlewight champion Demetrius Andrade) amongst all active boxers in total number of punches landed on him per rounds, which is in large part a testament to how well Bivol manages distance behind his jab. Overall, Bivol leads all active boxers - including pound-for-pound level fighters like Canelo, Shakur Stevenson, and Vasiliy Lomachenko - in CompuBox plus/minus rating, a statistic frequently used to assess how dominant a fighter has been over his opposition. (Plus/minus rating is calculated as the difference in connect percentage between a fighter and his opponent and was a statistic Mayweather was notorious for consistently being the highest rated boxer for when he was active.)
If Bivol can effectively shut out bigger, stronger
fighters who had reach advantage like Joe Smith behind his jab, I think we can
expect him to be similarly effective in large stretches of the fight vs. a
smaller fighter in Canelo vs. whom he has a slight 1.5" reach
advantage.
All things considered, especially when considering his edge in
experience, skill, and punching power - not to mention a favorable Cinco de
Mayo environment where you can almost expect the judges to score this fight
favorable for him - I do think Canelo probably wins this
fight. But at 7-1, I like Bivol by decision as far and away
the best value for this fight. For similar reasons, I also think a draw (20-1)
is good value and think, no matter who wins, the fight is highly likely to
go the distance (-200) given the elite defensive abilities of both
fighters, neither of whom have ever even been knocked down in their
career.
I'll be at the fight and definitely looking forward to this matchup. I think
it'll be a better fight than most are thinking and we might be in for a big
upset!!!
