Kovalev vs. Pascal: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Sergey Kovalev (26-0-1, 23 KOs) vs. Jean Pascal (29-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Date: March 14, 2015
Weight class: Light heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super Light Heavyweight title, IBF Light Heavyweight title, WBO Light Heavyweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Kovalev -735, Pascal +590 (5 Dimes, 3/14/15)
Purse: Kovalev: $3.24 million, Pascal: $2.76 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Kovalev: #1 ranked light heavyweight, Pascal: #3 ranked light heavyweight
Style: Kovalev: Orthodox, Pascal: Orthodox
Referee: Luis Pabon

Positives for Kovalev
Negatives for Kovalev
Positives for Pascal
Negatives for Pascal
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Kovalev

• Undefeated boxer (26-0-1) and current unified WBA Super, IBF, and WBO light heavyweight champion. (Lone draw on his record was a technical stoppage due to an accidental foul in the 2nd round of an August 2011 fight.) Devastating power puncher with excellent power in both hands. Is coming off the best win of his career in a wide unanimous decision victory vs. all-time great Bernard Hopkins last November. 31 years old and currently in the prime of his career. 
• Is up there with Gennady Golovkin as one of the most feared men in boxing. Out of his 26 wins, 23 (almost 90%) have come by TKO/KO. Has literally killed another boxer in the ring. (Roman Simakov died of brain injuries days after his December 2011 fight with Kovalev.) In 27 fights only four fighters have gone more than four rounds vs. Kovalev, with only one (Hopkins) going more than eight rounds. 
• Although known primarily as a power puncher Kovalev has underrated boxing skills, as shown in his most recent fight where he outboxed and thoroughly dominated a master class boxer in Hopkins. (The loss was by far the most lopsided loss in Hopkins' career.) Patient fighter who doesn't waste punches.Very efficient, highly accurate puncher who throws combinations well and has an excellent straight right hand (as seen in his most recent fights vs. Hopkins and Blake Caparello). When punching uses angles well and is effective at throwing leaping lead hooks from distance, which makes him somewhat unpredictable in his attack. Is also a devastating body puncher, one of the best in the sport. Cuts off the ring well and will be the technically superior boxer vs. Pascal.
• Kovalev is the slightly younger, naturally bigger, stronger, and taller fighter with a longer reach in this matchup vs. Pascal.  
• Kovalev doesn't have quite the top-level experience Pascal has but he does have good experience vs. very solid fighters. Kovalev's most recent fight was a dominant victory vs. Hopkins, an all-time great who at the time was the unified WBA Super and IBF light heavyweight champion. The combined record of Kovalev's five most recent opponents prior to Hopkins was an impressive 113-2-1 before he fought them, including two undefeated fighters in Nathan Cleverly and Cedric Agnew and two former world light heavyweight champions in Cleverly and Gabriel Campillo. 

Negatives for Kovalev

• While Kovalev has fought some solid opponents, his experience isn't quite at the level of Pascal, who has fought top-level opponents such as Carl Froch, Chad Dawson, Bernard Hopkins (twice), and Lucian Bute. Kovalev has yet to face an opponent with Pascal's speed, power, and athleticism.  
• Kovalev has only gone past eight rounds once in his professional career (his most recent fight vs. Hopkins), and has only been past the fourth round five times. While Kovalev fought very well in the late rounds of his most recent fight vs. Hopkins, Kovalev's stamina and ability remain untested in later rounds vs. an opponent with Pascal's speed, power, and athleticism so will be interesting to see how he fares if this fight goes into later rounds. 
• Kovalev possesses average speed; he will be at a clear hand and foot speed disadvantage vs. Pascal.
• Kovalev's chin is still a question mark; he's suffered a first-round knockout loss as an amateur and has been knocked down twice as a professional, including a recent (August 2014) fight vs. Blake Caparello. In Pascal he will be fighting arguably the strongest fighter he's faced in his career - a fighter who, like Kovalev, has very good power in both hands. Kovalev has been knocked down and/or hurt multiple times in his career by opponents with less power than Pascal.
• Kovalev's defense is far from poor but is somewhat flawed. Kovalev's come forward, offensive-minded approach often results in him dropping his guard which leaves him susceptible to clean counters, something Pascal will likely try to take advantage of. Unlike Hopkins, Pascal has solid counter punching power in both hands that Kovalev will have to respect. If Pascal wins the fight it will likely be due in large part to his ability to exploit Kovalev's defensive holes with this power, combined with good movement and hand speed (though Kovalev opponents are often fearful of throwing counter punches as it leaves them exposed to Kovalev's power). 
• Kovalev is one of the most feared punchers in boxing, but is unproven as an inside fighter. Pascal is a fairly good fighter from the inside; it'll be interesting to see if Pascal is successful at getting inside and using his advantages in athleticism and hand speed to outwork Kovalev from inside and limit Kovalev's power from range.

Positives for Pascal

• Former WBC, Lineal, and Ring Magazine light heavyweight champion and currently ranked the Ring Magazine #3 light heavyweight boxer in the world. One of the hardest punchers pound-for-pound in the sport. Very good KO power in both hands (though Pascal's power is somewhat underrated due to relatively low KO % (55%)). Looked impressive in his most recent full fight vs. former super middleweight champion Lucian Bute.
• Athletic, explosive boxer who prefers to box from the outside and wait for opportunities to jump in and pressure opponents ambush-style. The awkward angles Pascal throws punches from are often difficult to defend against. This could be an effective style vs. a slower, somewhat defensively flawed Kovalev.
• Has natural quickness; has had hand and foot speed advantages vs. nearly every fighter he has fought and will have these advantages vs. Kovalev. Has good elusiveness with his speed and mobility.
• Possesses an excellent chin; has never been knocked down or been in danger of getting stopped in his career.
• Experienced boxer who has already fought many of the elite fighters in his weight class, including Lucian Bute, Bernard Hopkins (twice), Chad Dawson, and Carl Froch. (Pascal is a respectable 2-2-1 vs. these opponents, with the two losses being very close, competitive fights.) Pascal has fought in seven world title fights, his first before Kovalev even turned pro.  
• Pascal has only lost twice in his career; both times to a future hall-of-famer (Carl Froch in 2008 and Bernard Hopkins in 2011). 
• Fast starter who usually gets out to early leads in fights.  
• Will be fighting in his (adopted) hometown of Montreal, Quebec in Canada; the vast majority of the crowd will be rooting for Pascal. 
• Has shown noticeable improvement since hiring boxing great Roy Jones Jr. to assist with training. Is also using Memo Heredia as his strength and conditioning coach. Heredia is noted for assisting Juan Manuel Marquez and Jorge Arce in regaining world championship titles in their 30s (most notably Marquez after his 6th round KO of Manny Pacquiao in December 2012).

Negatives for Pascal

• Will be at a disadvantage vs. Kovalev in terms of overall boxing IQ, technical skill, and power. Most recent loss was to Hopkins, who Kovalev dominated by winning every round on all three judges' scorecards. Pascal's primary advantage will be his hand speed and mobility, but Kovalev already decisively beat a comparably quick and elusive fighter in his most recent fight vs. Hopkins. Pascal often throws wild, inaccurate punches which could put Kovalev in great position to land precise, potentially fight-ending counter punches.
• Injury prone boxer who has suffered multiple serious shoulder injuries during fights (in some cases requiring his corner to pop his shoulder back in so he could continue). Pascal is already 32 years old; the injuries could persist or even get worse in future fights as Pascal gets older (including tonight's fight). 
• In large part due to his injuries, Pascal has been relatively inactive. Has only fought 3 times since 2012, with his last fight in December 2014 ending in a no contest decision after less than two rounds. 
• Has a strong chin, but defensive skills are subpar. Often fights flat-footed with his hands down, which at times allows his opponents to land effective counterpunches.
• Questionable stamina; often starts fast but has a tendency to tire and slow down by the middle of the fight (see both fights vs. Hopkins).
• Relatively low-volume puncher; has a tendency to have stretches of inactivity during fights (particularly in the middle and later rounds when he tires).

Prefight Summary

I wouldn't be surprised to see Kovalev have a fight on his hands early. He's facing a confident, fearless, and aggressive fighter in Pascal who likes to jump on top of his opponents early and get out to a fast start. Pascal is a very strong, physical boxer who will have a decisive speed advantage. If Pascal moves well and uses his speed he could have success vs. the slower Kovalev in many spots; he certainly has at least a puncher's chance as Kovalev has, in the recent past, been knocked down and/or hurt by fighters with less skill and power than Pascal.

But beyond that obligatory puncher's chance, I don't give Pascal much of a chance to win this fight. Pascal has a great chin - having never been knocked down in his career - but he's never faced a fighter with punching power anywhere near the power of Kovalev's. Like Hopkins before him, I see Pascal tasting Kovalev's power early and then becoming increasingly tentative throughout the rest of the fight as he tries to avoid Kovalev's punches. Pascal is a pressure-dependent ambush fighter who, despite having good speed, does not fight well when backing up; Pascal's normal game plan of jumping in on his opponents from the outside will be severely limited once he feels Kovalev's power and after Kovalev increasingly applies pressure on a stamina-deficient Pascal over the course of the fight.

I think the most likely result for this fight is Kovalev by mid-round TKO/KO but will give Pascal's chin enough respect to consider a wide unanimous decision by Kovalev as also a very good possibility. In either case, I fully expect Kovalev to win this fight easily; a win here vs. Pascal will cement Kovalev's status as the best light heavyweight boxer in the world and should further propel Kovalev up the pound-for-pound rankings. 

Prediction: Kovalev to win 

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Broner vs. Molina: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Adrien Broner (29-1, 22 KOs) vs. John Molina Jr. (27-5, 22 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: March 7, 2015
Weight class: Junior welterweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: NBC
Line: Broner -650, Molina +535 (5 Dimes, 3/7/15)
Purse: Broner: $1.25 million, Molina: $450,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Broner: #7 ranked welterweight, Molina: Not ranked
Style: Broner: Orthodox, Molina: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd


Positives for Broner
Negatives for Broner
Positives for Molina
Negatives for Molina
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Broner

• Former 3-time world champion in three different weight divisions (super featherweight, lightweight, and welterweight). At 23 years old, was the youngest boxer in history to be a world champion in three different divisions when he won the WBA welterweight championship vs. Paulie Malignaggi in 2013. Has been ranked as high as #6 in the Ring Magazine's pound-for-pound rankings. A top-level talent with the potential for a hall-of-fame career.
• 25-year old fighter in the prime of his career with excellent agility and hand speed combined with very good power. Slick, skilled technician who is adept with both counter punching and come-forward aggression. Good at cutting off the ring vs. opponents.
• Has a 29-1 record, with his lone loss being a December 2013 unanimous decision loss to Marcos Maidana. Has defeated former world champions such as Malignaggi, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Antonio DeMarco, and Gavin Rees - all tougher and more skilled opponents than Molina. In defeating DeMarco, defeated the then #1 lightweight contender who had beat Molina by 1st round TKO a couple months earlier in September 2012.
• Is low-volume at times, but is a very efficient, accurate puncher with good KO power in both hands (22 of his 29 wins have come by KO.) Has an effective jab and is a very good combination puncher.
• Despite his showing vs. Maidana, has overall solid defensive skills. Adept with both the shoulder roll and high guard defense. Slips and rolls punches fairly well in the pocket and is generally a difficult boxer to hit cleanly. 
• Very good at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Throws accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body.
• Is by far the superior athlete in this fight with superior technical skills and boxing IQ. Has the ability to make technical adjustments in the ring over the course of a fight. Precise puncher with much quicker reflexes than Molina so should be able to consistently beat Molina to the punch.
• Although he has frequently displayed immature antics both inside and outside the ring, Broner appears to have matured and noticeably toned down his antics in recent months.

Negatives for Broner

•  Has been exposed as a possibly overrated boxer in recent fights. Although he's beaten multiple former world champions, Broner may not be ready to contend vs. true top-level competition. In Broner's toughest test, he was decisively beaten (including getting knocked down twice) by Marcos Maidana, a pressure fighter with very good power but somewhat limited boxing skill relative to Broner. Molina is also a pressure fighter with very good power and limited boxing skill; if Broner doesn't use his feet he could get caught the same way he was caught multiple times vs. Maidana. In addition to the Maidana loss was unimpressive in both his May 2014 unanimous decision victory vs. Carlos Molina (where a knockout was expected) and his surprisingly close (though entertaining) unanimous decision victory vs. Emmanuel Taylor last September.    
• Low-volume puncher who is prone to getting out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. (Given his issues with fitness and making weight, Broner's low volume may be indicative of a stamina problem.) In five of Broner's last six fights, Broner has fallen behind in early rounds - even against clearly inferior competition.
• While Broner has good foot speed, his wide-legged stance tends to leave him flat-footed in the ring. Broner's resulting lack of mobility makes it easier for opponents to exert pressure and land scoring punches against him, even if those punches aren't landing cleanly.  
• Broner has fairly good defensive skills, but his defense does contain flaws, as clearly seen in his loss vs. Maidana. Broner is flat-footed and prefers to block punches with his hands and high guard rather than utilize foot movement. Broner's somewhat stationary defensive style provided ample opportunity for a power puncher like Maidana (and perhaps a power puncher like Molina in tonight's fight) to tee off and land big shots. Molina was able to catch heavily favored and previously undefeated fighters Hank Lundy and Mickey Bey - both of whom are more mobile than Broner - late in fights to win by TKO/KO so could conceivably catch Broner as well. 
• Broner's power at lighter weights hasn't carried up to the junior welterweight (140 lbs) and welterweight (147) divisions. Broner scored a TKO/KO victory in 22 out of his first 27 fights when fighting below 140 lbs (including a stretch of 16 out of 17 fights by TKO/KO) but has not scored a victory by TKO/KO in any of his last four fights, which have all been fought at 140 or 147. Molina is a big junior welterweight with a good chin, so tough to envision Broner getting the TKO/KO victory here.
• Has shown a lack of discipline in certain aspects of the fight game. Is generally overweight and out-of-shape when not training for fights, which often results in him having trouble making weight. (Broner has failed to make weight for multiple fights, including tonight's fight vs. Molina.) He's displayed unprofessional and immature behavior both inside and outside the ring and at times has even ignored his corner's instructions (most notably after falling behind on the scorecards vs. Maidana).  

Positives for Molina

• Former WBC USNBC and WBO NABO lightweight champion. Relatively tall, lanky pressure fighter with very good power in both hands - especially his right hand which has single-handedly earned him late round TKO/KO victories vs. heavily favored opponents who decisively outboxed him in the earlier rounds. 22 out of Molina's 27 wins (including his last 14 wins) have come by TKO/KO. Is a big boxer for 140 lbs and will have a size, height, and reach advantage vs. Broner.
• Patient, low-volume brawler; prefers to block his opponents' punches with his high guard from the inside and counter punch with power shots. Is selective with his punches but has legitimate one-punch KO power. Good body puncher who loops his punches from unpredictable angles. (Broner's lone loss was to Maidana who, like Molina, is a come-forward power punching brawler who can throw punches, in particular the overhand right, from unpredictable angles.)
• Despite having 5 losses on his record (including his last two fights) and having never won a world title, Molina is a respected and feared lighweight due to his punching power. Molina's signature punch is his overhand right, but he also has a devastating left hook. Used his punching power to shock previously undefeated and heavily favored fighters Hank Lundy and Mickey Bey in late rounds, as well as knock down highly regarded lightweight Lucas Matthysse twice in a thrilling fight that won nearly every Fight of the Year award for 2014. 
• Durable fighter with a good chin and very good stamina. One of only five fighters (out of 39) to make either it into the 11th round or last the entire fight vs. Matthysse.
• Determined boxer who fights with tremendous heart. Coming off of two straight losses, will be highly motivated to win this fight and retain his status as a spoiler for top-level opposition. Molina has considered retirement in the recent past and knows that a loss here could be the beginning of the end for his career.

Negatives for Molina

• There is a reason why Molina is not a ranked junior welterweight and has never won a world title. Skillwise, Molina is a limited fighter - a one dimensional brawler with slow reflexes, low boxing IQ, and lack of solid fundamentals likely attributable to the fact that he didn't start boxing until he was 17. Molina has consistently been outboxed by even decent B-level fighters, with his best wins coming as a result of what could be considered lucky punches in the late rounds of fights his opponents got complacent in due to being way ahead on the scorecards. Broner will be the most skilled and talented fighter Molina has fought in a career where he's already lost decisively to lesser fighters. 
• Has lost four out of his last seven fights, including his last two - all vs. opponents not as skilled as Broner. Molina's lone title fight was a first round TKO loss in September 2012 vs. Antonio DeMarco, an opponent Broner defeated two months later by 8th round TKO.
• Some will point to Broner's loss to Maidana as a possible blueprint for Molina pulling of the upset vs. Broner. Like Maidana, Molina is also an aggressive power puncher. Molina, however, is a low-volume counter puncher (in contrast to Maidana's high volume, lead puncher style) and is not nearly as skilled as Maidana.
• Molina is a defensively suspect brawler who, due to slow hand speed and reflexes, is generally easy to hit and beat to the punch. Although he's only been a pro for 9 years, at 31 years old Molina has been in some brutal wars (most notably the Matthysse fight) that have likely taken a physical toll on him. 31 isn't necessarily old but the boxing lifespan of a brawler with limited defense is generally much shorter than the lifespan of other boxers. 
• Although Molina has a good chin, he has been stopped twice in the past 2.5 years. The stoppages came at the hands of the two best opponents Molina has fought to date - DeMarco and Matthysse. 

Prefight Summary

John Molina has a puncher's chance in every fight he's in. Despite his limited skill, Molina did find a way to stay very competitive last year in his thriller vs. Lucas Matthysse, one of the most feared power punchers in boxing. He did find a way to beat heavily-favored blue-chip contenders Mickey Bey (the current IBF lightweight champion of the world and considered by many the best fighter under the Mayweather Promotions imprint other than Floyd himself) and Hank Lundy by TKO/KO in the late rounds of fights he was losing decisively. Both Bey and Lundy utilize foot movement more than the relatively flat-footed Broner, who is often content to stay in the pocket within range of his opponent to pick off punches. Broner has quicker reflexes and better defense than Bey or Lundy but if Molina can land the right shot (i.e., land one of his flush overhand rights on Broner), then Molina could be well on his way to replicating Maidana's upset of Broner in 2013 and scoring by far the biggest win of his career on primetime national TV. I actually think Molina would be well served to take risks in this fight with the intent of knocking Broner out; Molina has a good chin and was able to last 11 rounds vs. the most feared puncher at 140 lbs in Matthysse so I'd expect he'll be able to go the distance vs. Broner, whose power hasn't translated nearly as much at 140 lbs as it had in lower weight divisions.

Despite the threat of Molina's power, the disparity in talent, speed, and skill between Broner and Molina is just too much to overlook. Molina has been thoroughly outboxed by much lesser boxers than Broner; I see no reason why - other than a lucky punch from Molina - an A-level talent such as Broner wouldn't be able to dominate Molina the same way solid B-level boxers generally have. Especially with the speed disparity, I don't see a low-volume puncher like Molina catching Broner, even with Broner's flat-footed tendencies. I see Broner easily picking off Molina's shots and countering with precise power shots of his own that, over the course of several rounds, could even result in a surprising stoppage.

But, given Molina's sturdy chin and the fact that Broner's knockout power in lower weight divisions hasn't translated well to higher weights, I like Broner by wide unanimous decision. The only thing preventing Broner from an easy victory here is the same sort of carelessness defensively Molina was able to take advantage of late in his fights vs. Bey and Lundy.

Prediction: Broner by decision 

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Thurman vs. Guerrero: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Keith Thurman (24-0, 21 KOs) vs. Robert Guerrero (32-2-1, 18 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: March 7, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA World Welterweight title
TV: NBC
Line: Thurman -700, Guerrero +500 (5 Dimes, 3/6/15)
Purse: Thurman: $1.5 million, Guerrero: $1.23 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Thurman: #7 ranked welterweight, Guerrero: #8 ranked welterweight
Style: Thurman: Orthodox, Guerrero: Southpaw
Referee: Kenny Bayless


Positives for Thurman
Negatives for Thurman
Positives for Guerrero
Negatives for Guerrero
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Thurman

• Current WBA welterweight champion. Aggressive boxer-puncher with one-punch KO power in both hands. Relatively young boxer (26 years old) in his prime who is one of the most feared boxers in the sport today. Undefeated in 25 professional fights. (24-0 with one fight back in 2009 that was ruled a no contest after an accidental clash of heads in the 1st round.)
• Power puncher with 21 wins by TKO/KO in 25 professional fights (84%), which ranks among the highest percentage of wins by TKO or KO in boxing today. Arguably behind only Gennady Golovkin and Sergey Kovalev as the most powerful puncher in boxing. Thurman has very good stamina and maintains his KO power even into later rounds, as evidenced by his late round TKO/KO victories vs. Diego Chaves and Jesus Soto Karass. 
• Thurman's great power is complimented with very good boxing skills and high boxing IQ. Patient boxer who is adept at reading his opponents and making in-fight adjustments (as he did in his KO victory vs. Chaves). 
• Has good hand speed, footwork, and throws combinations well. Well-rounded boxer; difficult to single out his best punch as he has a wide array of punches in his arsenal.  
• Thurman is naturally bigger and stronger than Guerrero; Thurman has never fought below 147 lbs, while Guerrero spent the vast majority of his career at featherwieght (126 lbs), super featherweight (130 lbs), and lightweight (135 lbs) before moving up to welterweight 2.5 years ago.

Negatives for Thurman

•  Lacks experience at the top level. Thurman has dominated B and C-level fighters for much of his career but Guerrero will be by far the toughest opponent he's faced to date. Although he arguably won all 12 rounds, Thurman didn't look impressive in his last fight vs. undefeated 40-year old journeyman Leonard Bundu, who he struggled with in spots and failed to win by knockout against (as was expected). (The usually popular Thurman was booed by the MGM Grand crowd in Las Vegas after his performance.) Guerrero is a battle-tested, physical pressure fighter who may test Thurman like he's never been tested before.
• Suffered a left shoulder injury in 2014 which resulted in an 8-month layoff from the ring and perhaps significantly affected his performance last December vs. Bundu; the shoulder injury may still be a lingering issue for him. 
• Shows a lack of discipline at times, especially on the defensive end. Is prone to dropping his hands, which has often left him exposed to clean counter shots (most notably vs. Chaves and Soto Karass). 

Positives for Guerrero

• Former world champion (or interim world champion) in four different divisions (featherweight, super featherweight, lightweight, and welterweight). Aggressive, come-forward brawler who throws a high volume of punches. 6-time world champion who, immediately prior to fighting Floyd Mayweather, was ranked in the Ring Magazine pound-for-pound top 10.
• Experienced fighter who has fought current and former world champions such as Orlando Salido, Joel Casamayor, Michael Katsidis, Andre Berto, and current #1 pound-for-pound champion Mayweather. Has a solid 3-1 record against these opponents, with one no contest. (Guerrero's November 2006 loss to Salido was ruled a no contest after Salido tested positive for steroids after the fight.) The only clear loss in Guerrero's career was to Mayweather, with his other loss coming in December 2005 via somewhat controversial split decision loss to Gamaliel Diaz (who he defeated by 6th round KO in their rematch six months later).  
• Tough, crafty southpaw who fights particularly well on the inside. Is adept at smothering his opponents and turning fights into brawls, which could frustrate a young, relatively inexperienced fighter like Thurman. If Guerrero can turn the fight into a physical, inside brawl he has the chance to outpoint Thurman with his high work rate.
• Has a very good to great chin. Has never lost by TKO/KO and has only been knocked down once in his career, a flash knockdown vs. Joel Casamayor in the last round of a fight he was winning by a wide margin. Seemed largely unaffected by flush shots from Andre Berto (who at the time was a feared power puncher) in their November 2012 fight.
• Guerrero is an underrated, skilled fighter with good fundamentals. Throws many punches well but best punch is likely his left uppercut, which he even had success with in the early rounds of his fight vs. Mayweather. As evidenced by the fact that he is a 6-time world champion in four different weight divisions, Guerrero has actually long been one of the better boxers in the sport. Has underrated power, as evidenced by the fact that he knocked down career welterweight Andre Berto twice in the early rounds of their fight in only his second fight in the welterweight division.
• Very determined, relentless boxer who fights with a lot of heart. Also has very good stamina, generally fighting with the same level of activity in later rounds as he does in early rounds, as evidenced in his most recent fight - a brutal fight of the year-candidate brawl vs. Yoshihiro Kamegai last June. Will be highly determined to win this fight to maintain his status as a big money fighter. 

Negatives for Guerrero

• Has a solid chin but his defensive skills are questionable given the frequency with which he gets hit, particularly in recent fights. In Guerrero's most recent fight vs. Kamegai, he was hit with 278 power punches at a fairly high 38% connect rate per CompuBox stats. (Overall, more punches were landed in the Guerrero vs. Kamegai fight than any other fight in 2014 per CompuBox stats.) Guerrero was also the victim of numerous clean power shots in his other recent fights vs. Mayweather and Berto. As an inside brawler, Guerrero is more than willing to take a punch in order to throw a punch, a style which may prove disastrous vs. an elite power puncher like Thurman. Has shown a particular susceptibility to uppercuts, one of Thurman's better punches.
• Guerrero is 31 years old, 5 years older than Thurman. 31 isn't necessarily old, but given some of the brutal wars he's recently been involved in (in particular the Kamegai and Berto fights), how much does he really have left in the tank? Fighters with a brawler boxing style tend to have shorter life spans (in terms of prime) than other boxers. Guerrero in recent fights has also been more flat-footed and shown signs of slowing reflexes.
• Has been fairly inactive over the past few years, having fought only five times in the past four years - including only once in 2014 and once in 2013. With the long layoffs, how will he look vs. a potentially elite fighter in Thurman?
• Guerrero is the more experienced fighter but, who has he really beaten? The world champions he's beaten are generally considered B-level fighters. Guerrero has never beaten a top level fighter (his only fight vs. an elite fighter was vs. Mayweather, a fight which he lost decisively); in Thurman, Guerrero will be fighting an A-level world champion in what will be the 2nd toughest test of his career. Other than Mayweather and Thurman, Guerrero's toughest test was a November 2006 featherweight title fight vs. Orlando Salido, a fight which he lost decisively, but was later ruled a no contest due to Salido testing positive for steroids.

Prefight Summary

While I certainly wouldn't put him anywhere near the class of great fighters of this generation (Mayweather, Pacquiao, Hopkins, Marquez, etc.), I do think Robert Guerrero is one of the more underrated boxers in recent years. Aside from the Mayweather fight Guerrero has not received much press during his career, but this guy didn't become a 6-time world champion in 4 different weight classes and ranked in the Ring Magazine top 10 pound-for-pound in the prime of his career for no reason. Guerrero can box. He's a crafty, intelligent veteran who poses a threat to even elite opposition due to his experience, great chin, fearlessness, and all-around boxing skills, particularly his ability to outbox his opponents from the inside with volume and precision.

Guerrero has decisively beaten nearly all of the solid competition put in front of him, his lone clear loss coming at the hands of undefeated #1 pound-for-pound king Floyd Mayweather; even in that fight most would agree Guerrero actually won the first two rounds of the fight before Floyd adjusted and dominated the rest of the fight with his clear speed and skill advantages. Keith Thurman isn't a proven inside fighter so if Guerrero can get inside on Thurman and smother him, I wouldn't be surprised to see Guerrero maybe eke out a victory by outworking Thurman and not giving Thurman enough space to land his power punches.

But it is Guerrero's lack of discipline defensively, combined with Thurman's power and mobility that I think gives the clear edge to Thurman in this matchup. Although Guerrero can box he's become - especially in recent fights - more of a brawler who has no problem trading punches due to his great chin and decent power. But trading punches with Thurman, who is quickly proving to be one of the elite power punchers in boxing, is almost certainly a recipe for disaster. Thurman is strong, physically bigger than Guerrero, and mobile enough to thwart any Guerrero attempts to make the match a physical fight inside. He is also patient, skilled, and intelligent enough to outbox the slower and somewhat flat-footed Guerrero from the outside, despite Guerrero's slight reach advantage. Guerrero's chin is solid but if he gets hit with the number of clean, flush power shots vs. Thurman that he has been hit with in his last three fights (which I expect him to), this will be a fairly easy wide decision - if not early stoppage - victory for Thurman. I expect Thurman's youth, power, and patient yet aggressive boxing style to overwhelm the older, defensively suspect, and battle-tested but perhaps battle-worn Guerrero.

All-in-all, this fight will be Thurman's toughest test to date in his career; a win here will solidify his status as one of the future stars of boxing and even as a possible opponent for Floyd Mayweather some time in 2016 if not later this year.

Prediction: Thurman to win 

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