Fight: George Groves (27-3, 20 KOs) vs. Chris Eubank Jr. (26-1, 20 KOs)
Location: Manchester Arena, Manchester, United Kingdom
Date: February 17, 2018
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Super Middleweight title
TV: None (in the U.S. will be streamed on World Boxing Super Series YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD3OiO5NLkUJHL23qUv8L0Q/featured)
Line: Groves +158, Eubank Jr. -168 (5 Dimes, 2/17/18)
Purse: Groves: $2.1 million (approximate), Eubank Jr.: $2.1 million (approximate) [The two fighters are splitting a purse of approximately £3 million pounds evenly.]
Ring Magazine Rankings: Groves: #2 ranked super middleweight, Eubank Jr.: #4 ranked super middleweight
Style: Groves: Orthodox, Eubank Jr.: Orthodox
Referee: Michael Alexander
Why you should watch this fight
George Groves vs. Chris Eubank Jr. is one of the most anticipated fights of the year and the most anticipated fight between two UK fighters since Carl Froch rematched Groves in May of 2014, a fight which boasted a post-World War II British record of 80,000 in attendance at Wembley Stadium and sold out in less than an hour. (By comparison, this weekend's Groves vs. Eubank matchup sold out the 21,000-seat Manchester Arena in Manchester, England within just seven minutes.)
This fight features arguably the two best super middleweights in the world. Groves is a technically sound, experienced boxer with very good punching power in both hands that complements his decent hand speed and an ability to box on the move. He's looked fairly impressive in winning his last six fights (four by TKO/KO) since losing a WBC title fight to Badou Jack in 2015 and suffering two TKO losses to Froch in each of the two years prior to that. Groves, who switched trainers to noted UK trainer Shane McGuigan after his loss to Jack, won his first major world title - the WBA super middleweight title - last October vs. previously undefeated UK contender Jamie Cox.
In the first defense of his super middleweight title, Groves will face challenger Eubank Jr. - the son of former two-weight world champion and British boxing great Chris Eubank Sr. - who is trying to win the first major title of his professional career. High-volume, speedy, and aggressive with excellent conditioning and very good power, Eubank has looked highly impressive since his controversial split decision loss in 2014 to current undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders, having decisively won his last eight fights (seven by TKO/KO) and making enough of an impression in recent fights that he enters the fight as a solid (-168) favorite despite being the challenger who has never previously won a major world title.
This fight is being contested as a semifinal within the World Boxing Super Series (WBSS) super middleweight tournament. The winner of this fight will not only be the WBA super middleweight champion (and widely considered the best super middleweight of the world), the winner will advance to the WBSS final in London this June to face the winner of the Callum Smith vs. Juergen Braehmer WBSS semifinal (taking place next Saturday in Germany). While technically a semifinal matchup on paper, Groves vs. Eubank Jr. is essentially a megafight in the UK between two of the top ten British fighters in the sport pound-for-pound and is one of the very best fights that could've been made in boxing overall. Fantastic matchup that has all the makings of being a candidate for fight of the year.
Prefight Analysis
There are a bunch of solid reasons to favor Groves in this fight.
He is the naturally bigger man - a career super middleweight (168 lbs) who could possibly even compete for a world title at light heavyweight (175 lbs), while Eubank has a smaller frame and limited top-level experience at super middleweight, having actually fought most of his more notable fights in recent years at middleweight (160 lbs). Groves also has greater punching power to complement his size advantage (including one-punch power that former Groves opponent Martin Murray rates as superior to Ring Magazine's #1 pound-for-pound fighter Gennady Golovkin's) and is considered by most to be a more skilled, technically sound boxer than Eubank.
Groves without a doubt has more experience than Eubank vs. world-class opponents (particularly at super middleweight), having beaten highly regarded fighters such as James DeGale (an Olympic gold medalist who is still considered by some to be one of the best boxers in the sport pound-for-pound despite his recent upset loss to Caleb Truax), Martin Murray, Fedor Chuvinov, and Jamie Cox. Groves has also been in close, competitive super middleweight title fights vs. Jack (where he lost a split decision) and twice vs. Froch (where he led early in both fights, including the first fight where he led late on all three judges' scorecards before a questionable stoppage). Groves has fought on the world stage before (including in front of 80,000 fans in his second fight vs. Froch at Wembley Stadium n London) and won the WBA super middleweight title in his last fight vs. a solid, undefeated opponent in Cox.
Outside of a past-prime, 37-year-old (though still dangerous) Arthur Abraham, Eubank has yet to defeat any high profile opponents; the biggest name Eubank has fought in his career is current undefeated middleweight champion Saunders, who he lost to by split decision in 2014 after being dominated in the early rounds of the fight. Saturday's fight will be just Eubank's fourth 12-round fight at super middleweight and the first major world title fight of his career.
Generally, if a fighter has the advantages Groves has in size, skills, punching power, and experience you'd expect that fighter to win... when you further consider that sportsbooks are currently offering odds as high as +170 for Groves to win
Though I could see this fight going either way and think the odds being offered on Groves are tempting, I still think betting on Eubank Jr. to win is where the best value lies. Despite Groves's advantages in certain notable metrics (size, skill, etc.), I don't think any of those advantages are wide enough vs. an ever-improving Eubank who seems to have gotten better after each fight since his narrow loss three years ago to Saunders. (In other words, while Groves has the edge in size, power, and skill I feel Eubank is comparable enough in these areas to compete and give Groves serious problems.) Though Groves has a slightly larger physical frame and bigger punching power, Eubank strikes me as the physically stronger fighter; I expect that he'll be able to use his superior athleticism and speed to get inside on Groves, where he can impose his physical strength and break him down with high punch volume - particularly in the later rounds of the fight.
Eubank is the better fighter from close range and has the power to hurt Groves on the inside - a brawl-style fight from close distance favors Eubank while a more classic boxing match from mid-range or full distance likely favors Groves. I feel Eubank's advantages in physical strength and speed combined with his typically busy punch output will ultimately allow him to control the pace of the fight and mostly negate some of the advantages Groves has in this matchup.
But the biggest mismatch I see in this fight relates to stamina and mental fortitude. Especially in his biggest fights, Groves is notorious for being a 6-round fighter who starts well only to tire and fade late. Eubank, on the other hand, has a reputation for being a 12-round fighter - one of the more well-conditioned boxers in the sport who seemingly gets stronger as the fight goes on and is capable of turning up his intensity in the late rounds of a fight.
Groves was leading early in his fights vs. Froch before fading and getting stopped in the late rounds of both fights. He was also leading in the middle rounds of his super middleweight title fight vs. Jack (despite getting knocked down in the first round of the fight) but lost a split decision after losing most of the late rounds. Even in Groves's most impressive win - a majority decision victory vs. DeGale back in 2011 - he won most of the early rounds before losing most of the late rounds. Groves has a history of faltering in the late rounds vs. top-level opponents - one has to question not only the stamina but the mental toughness of a fighter who consistently fades late in big fights. Eubank is a durable fighter with excellent stamina and a solid chin - and fights with as much (or more) aggressive intensity in late rounds as he does early; this bodes poorly for Groves given his history of tiring late in fights.
Also consider that in recent fights, Groves has not boxed on his feet (i.e., not been as mobile) as much as he did when he was younger (like his win nearly seven years ago vs. DeGale). Groves has instead employed a more stationary style where he is more prone to standing in front of his opponent and trading power punches - a strategy which perhaps allows him to better utilize his outstanding power but a style which probably cost him both of his fights vs. Froch and which may not be the wisest style to employ vs. a durable, high-volume power puncher with a solid chin like Eubank.
I actually expect Groves to outbox Eubank a bit early and get off to a good start (as he typically does in these kind of matchups) but think the stronger, faster, more durable and relentless Eubank will wear Groves down late for a win on points or perhaps even a late stoppage. I get the sense Eubank is hungrier and mentally tougher than Groves (perhaps much more so), and sees this fight as a career-defining moment and a win that will put him on a faster track to international superstardom.
So I do like Eubank overwhelming Groves late for the win as the best bet on this fight. (Eubank to win can currently be had for odds as low as -160.) With that said, Groves to win by decision - which can be found for as high as +500 on Bovada - is a bet that's too good to pass up as a hedge given Grove's advantages in some key metrics (size, skill, power, and experience), as well as the fact that Eubank has never been stopped as a pro. So the betting strategy I'd recommend is Eubank to win hedged with a smaller bet of Groves to win by decision (to cover losses in case Eubank doesn't win). (This betting strategy won't yield much profit but this is where I see the best value in the fight.)
Both fighters have a knack for making exciting fights so this should be a good one!
Prediction: Eubank Jr. to win
Recommended bet(s): 1) Eubank Jr. to win (1 unit)
2) Groves to win on points (.33 unit)
2) Groves to win on points (.33 unit)
