Charlo vs. Derevyanchenko: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Jermall Charlo (30-0, 22 KOs) vs. Sergiy Derevyanchenko (13-2, 10 KOs)
Location:  Mohegan Sun Casino, Uncasville, Connecticut
Date: September 26, 2020
Weight class: Middleweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World middleweight title
TV/Stream: Showtime PPV
Line (Bovada): Charlo: -185, Derevyanchenko: +150  (9/25/20)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Charlo: #3-ranked middleweight, Derevyanchenko: #4-ranked middleweight
Style: Charlo: Orthodox, Derevyanchenko: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

Jermall Charlo vs. Sergiy Derevyanchenko will likely give boxing fans a much better sense of where these two elite middleweights fall within the pecking order of the division - especially Charlo, who some observers feel could prove in the very near future to be the best middleweight in the world. An impressive win by the slightly-favored Charlo in this weekend's matchup would further confirm the feelings of some that Charlo poses the biggest threat at middleweight to current pound-for-pound #1 and Ring Magazine lineal/WBA Super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez should he come back down from higher weight classes to fight in the division. 

Charlo, the current WBC middleweight champion, sports an impressive 30-0 record and he - along with his identical twin brother, WBC super welterweight champion Jermell Charlo - have risen in recent years to become among the most well-known names in the sport. Despite his perfect record and having won world titles in two different weight classes (Jermall Charlo held the IBF super welterweight title from 2015 to 2017 before vacating it to move up to middleweight), Charlo has never received serious consideration as one of the best pound-for-pound boxers in the sport due in large part to lack of notable opponents on his resume. (A past prime Austin Trout and a chinny Julian Williams have been his two toughest opponents thus far in his career.)  A stoppage or clear unanimous decision victory vs. a widely-respected, elite middleweight in Derevyanchenko could be the fight that moves Charlo into the pound-for-pound rankings and on the precipice of becoming a boxing superstar.   

After very close decision losses to Daniel Jacobs and Golovkin (a split decision loss to Jacobs and unanimous decision loss to Golovkin in a fight that many - myself included - felt won), Derevyanchenko hopes his third time challenging for the middleweight championship is the charm in a fight almost universally considered the toughest challenge of Charlo's career. Despite only having 15 professional fights with an unremarkable record of 13-2, Derevyanchenko is a seasoned boxing veteran with over 400 amateur fights and a fighter who some, despite only being six years and 15 fights into his professional career, would argue beat both Jacobs and Golovkin. If Derevyanchenko upsets Charlo, he stakes his claim as potentially the best middleweight in the world and sets himself up for lucrative PPV matchups with other elite 160-pounders. If he wins the WBC belt from Charlo, Derevyanchenko - even with the promotional roadblocks that would make it a difficult fight to make - could be an opponent that entices Canelo to come back down to middleweight to unify titles, given Derevyanchenko's come-forward, pressuring style that many feel Canelo's excellent counter punching skills would match up very well against. 

Charlo vs. Derevyanchenko is the first of two main events in a unique "double" card taking place on Showtime PPV this Saturday night. Five of the six televised fights on the card will be world title fights and will feature notable fighters such as Charlo's twin brother (and current WBC super welterweight champion) Jermell, undefeated former WBC bantamweight titlist Luis Nery, and current undefeated WBA super bantamweight titlist Brandon Figueroa. Jermall's WBC middleweight title defense vs. Derevyanchenko will headline the first portion of the PPV, while Jermell's unification title fight with WBA and IBF champion Jeison Rosario will headline the second portion. Saturday night's double PPV card is widely considered one of the most stacked PPV cards in numerous years.   

Prefight Analysis

When this fight was first announced, I was inclined to believe that Derevyanchenko to win (as a slight underdog) would probably be the best bet. Even with exactly half as many professional fights as Charlo, Derevyanchenko has the vastly superior experience vs. top-level opposition at middleweight, given his close (and highly debatable) losses over the past two years to Jacobs and pound-for-pound ranked Golovkin. Even unheralded middleweight Jack Culcay, a German boxer Derevyanchenko beat by unanimous decision in 2019 on the undercard of the Caleb Truax vs. Peter Quillin fight in Minnesota, could arguably be considered a better opponent than any middleweight Charlo has fought to date. (Culcay is currently ranked the #8 middleweight boxer in the world by BoxRec.) Charlo has fought five times at middleweight since vacating his super welterweight title in 2017, and has yet to fight a top-10 ranked middleweight opponent. Charlo has also failed to impress in most of his recent fights at middleweight, most notably his 2018 unanimous decision victory vs. Matvey Korobov that some felt should have been scored for Korobov.

Derevyanchenko is a technically sound pressure fighter whose relatively short (5'9")  stature may work to his advantage in Saturday's fight to enable him to duck under Charlo's attack and score effectively on the inside, as he did for stretches vs. both Golovkin and Jacobs. At 34 years old and with those two losses in recent PPV title fights, one would think that the sense of urgency will definitely be there Saturday night for Derevyanchenko, as this third title shot could be the last chance he gets to win a major belt, given his age and the wars he's been through in recent years. 

Derevyanchenko is a gritty, determined fighter with the superior experience and - despite the losses - has arguably looked more impressive at middleweight than Charlo ever has. At least on the surface, betting on Derevyanchenko to win straight up (+150) or by decision (+275)  as an underdog would seem to be very solid value, especially given that Charlo is still unproven at the elite level and to date  has faced no one near Derevyanchenko's caliber at middleweight.

But, despite the unknowns about Charlo at middleweight, I still like Jermall in this matchup. Styles make fights and I think at the end of the day, Derevyanchenko's style of pressure won't fare well vs. Charlo's defensively responsible style and physical metrics. Although Charlo previously fought as a super welterweight (154 lbs), his size and power have carried very well up to 160 lbs to the point where he can be considered a big middleweight who could likely compete for a world title as a super middleweight (168 lbs) in the near future. Charlo is bigger, stronger, and faster than Derevyanchenko - and has an elite power jab that I expect will control the tempo of the fight given Charlo's significant 6" reach advantage. In addition to a jab that's one of the best in boxing (and has been one of the best in boxing for a few years now), Charlo is slicker and more savvy defensively with better foot movement than any of Derevyanchenko's previous opponents at middleweight, including Golovkin and Jacobs. Relative to Golovkin and Jacobs, Derevyanchenko in my opinion will find it tougher to apply his patented high volume pressure given Charlo's reach advantage and defensive abilities. And - given Charlo's adeptness at countering pressure with big power that's quick and often pinpoint - Derevyanchenko's pressure might create too many holes that Charlo can exploit. 

At 30 years old, Charlo is the younger fighter in the prime of his career while Derevyanchenko - despite only being 15 fights into his professional career - is a bit past his prime at 34 (turning 35 next month). Derevyanchenko also hasn't fought in nearly a year, which I think will be to the detriment of the aging fighter. Even with the time he's had off to rest, Derevyanchenko is a battle-worn fighter from his lengthy, 400+ fight amateur career and the wars he's had in recent years with the likes of Golovkin and Jacobs.  

It would also be remiss to discount the promotional politics behind Saturday night's boxing card. Charlo's manager (and de facto promoter) Al Haymon, along with the Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) boxing series, are using this double PPV card as part of their effort to build the Charlo twins into one of the biggest brands in the sport. Jermall Charlo is obviously the "A" side of this matchup; Derevyanchenko is the "B" side and was the "B" side in his two other recent PPV fights vs. Golovkin and Jacobs - it shouldn't come as a surprise that he came out on the short end on the judges' scorecards in both of those close fights in which either could reasonably have been scored in his favor. For the PBC series, where the Charlo twins are among the more marketable commodities in all of boxing, I'd have to think a close fight this Saturday night is just as likely to be scored in favor of the "A" side Charlo as Derevyanchenko's fights vs. Golovkin and Jacobs were. 

So, all things considered, I like betting the favored Charlo for the win here. In terms of method of victory - Derevyanchenko has been knocked down early in each of his two other recent PPV fights vs. Golovkin and Jacobs (both times in the first round) but has never come close to being stopped as a pro. Charlo possesses big power that I feel will be effective vs. Derevyanchenko's pressure, but Charlo is by nature a low-volume, cautiously aggressive fighter which - combined with Derevyanchenko's resilient nature and sturdy chin - leads me to believe it's highly likely this fight goes to decision. Therefore, I think a bet on Charlo to win by decision offers the best value for this matchup Either way, definitely looking forward to this event and the stacked card!!! 

Prediction: Charlo to win

Recommended bet: Charlo to win by decision (bet to RISK .5 unit)

Wilder vs. Fury II: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Deontay Wilder (42-0-1, 41 KOs) vs. Tyson Fury (29-0-1, 20 KOs)
Location:  MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: February 22, 2020
Weight class: Heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World heavyweight title
TV/Stream: ESPN/FOX PPV
Line (5 Dimes): Wilder: -131, Fury: +121  (12/20/20)
Purse: Wilder: $5 million, Fury: $5 million (though both will be guaranteed at least $25 million each, not including percentages of PPV profits)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Fury: #1 ranked heavyweight
Style: Wilder: Orthodox, Fury: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

I've found it (mildly) surprising that a clear majority of boxing experts/sharps - including quite a few who picked Fury to win the first fight and actually thought he won that fight despite the fight being scored a draw - are picking Wilder to win by TKO/KO in the rematch. Indeed, Wilder by TKO/KO *might* be the most likely of all specific outcomes so might - especially at well above even money odds (currently +125 at 5Dimes) - be the best bet on this fight. As noted (perhaps ad nauseam) in the massive Fox/ESPN promotion for the fight, Deontay Wilder might have the hardest single punch in the *history* of boxing with his straight right hand. Wilder has the highest TKO/KO percentage in heavyweight boxing history (95.4%) and has either knocked out or knocked down every fighter he's ever faced in his professional career, including knocking Fury down twice in the last four rounds of their first fight. 

Wilder - who took up boxing relatively late at 20 years old - is actually a still-improving fighter who has shown noticeable improvement in most of his recent fights in particular. Wilder's improvement is reflected in the fact that in each of his two previous rematches (vs. Bermane Stiverne in November 2017 and Luis Ortiz in 2019), Wilder was able to finish his opponent faster in the rematch than he was in the first fight; it certainly stands to reason that there's a very good chance Wilder could look similarly impressive in tonight's rematch vs. Fury.

To his credit, Wilder did  make the necessary adjustments  - in the last four rounds of his first fight vs. Fury - to his punch trajectory that enabled him to knock Fury down twice and almost stop him in the 12th round. It stands to reason that Wilder's successful adjustments (which speak to at least a partial "figuring out" of Fury's defensive movement) will carry over into the rematch.

The fact that Fury just three months ago switched trainers (from Ben Davidson to the Kronk Gym's SugarHill Steward) for tonight's rematch might also be of concern to Fury supporters, as it typically takes time for even experienced, elite boxers to adjust to a new trainer (though Fury is familiar with Steward from having previously trained under his uncle Emmanuel Steward many years ago at the same gym). All indications are that the switch in trainers was made to implement a more aggressive, come-forward attack strategy vs. Wilder with the hopes of beating Wilder by knockout; this could very well prove to be a foolhardy strategy vs. one of the hardest punchers in the history of boxing as it perhaps will do little more than increase Fury's own chances of getting knocked out himself.

Furthermore, Fury weighing in for this fight at 273 pounds - 16.5 pounds heavier than he weighed in his first fight with Wilder - could render him less able to be as mobile and elusive as he likely will need to be at certain points of the fight, particularly in the late stages where he was knocked down twice in the previous fight vs. Wilder. (Despite the draw, Fury won the first fight in most people's eyes largely by employing his typical rangy, pot shot-from-distance style with constant movement that helped him mostly avoid Wilder's knockout punches for *most* of the fight.)

I did pick Wilder to win by TKO/KO in the first fight, though that was nearly entirely because I felt Fury took that fight too soon after a 2.5 year layoff  - a layoff riddled with mental health and substance abuse issues, as well as a near 150-pound weight gain - and not having fought any world-class competition in the months in the months leading up to that fight to prep himself. It seems even more boxing experts (including gambling "sharps" generally sharper at picking fights than myself) are picking Wilder to win by TKO/KO in tonight's rematch.

But despite all the concerns I've detailed above - including the recent trainer change and weight gain coming in to tonight's fight - I'm going to go against what seems to be the sentiment of most boxing experts and stick with my months-old (since the rematch was announced last Spring) prediction  that Tyson Fury will win his rematch with Wilder (and will win in likely decisive fashion).

Despite all the concerns I've noted above, at the end of the day Fury is the better-skilled, smarter, defensively-sharper, overall superior boxer who - by most boxing observers' estimation - decisively outboxed Wilder in their first fight, outside of the two rounds in the fight where he was knocked down. Yes, Wilder has proven himself to be one of the better knockout artists in boxing history, but I firmly believe the 12th-round knockdown in the first fight was more the result of Fury getting careless and believing he already had the fight won. (According to the official judges' scorecards, Fury would indeed have won the fight by split decision if he hadn't gotten knocked down in the last round). I see Fury ramping up his focus in the rematch and finding a way through his superior guile and fighting abilities - whether it be using his reach advantage and footwork to outbox Wilder from distance as he did in the first fight or using his size advantage and increased weight to impose his physicality on the inside as he's claimed he might do in the lead-up to the fight - to avoid the knockout punches he suffered when he got careless in the late stages of the first fight and box his way to a decisive victory.

One oft-repeated mantra of boxing is that in rematches between a boxer and a puncher, it is generally the (more fundamentally skilled) boxer who performs better in the rematch, as the boxer is typically more equipped to make the tactical adjustments necessary to more decisively outbox the puncher (given that the puncher is typically less diverse in terms of the range of his fighting abilities). Many are of the belief that it will actually be Wilder who performs better in tonight's fight, given that he did make adjustments in the late stages of the previous fight and given his history of improvement in rematches - as well as the room he has as a still somewhat raw fighter to improve in comparison to Fury, who many felt fought about as well as he could fight in the first match, yet still only earned a draw. But I think the boxer-over-puncher in rematches mantra will hold up in this fight (as it's more often than not held up in similar situations) and think Fury has trained to exploit the flaws in Wilder that he realized from the first fight (which is likely at least partly reflected in his decision to change trainers and come into this fight over 15 pounds heavier).

So I'm taking the superior boxer (Fury) to outbox and outwit the superior puncher (Wilder) in the rematch. While I think Fury most likely wins by decision, I prefer the bet of Fury simply to win (which can currently be had at +110 or better) given Fury's stated strategy of going into the fight with the purpose of trying to knock Wilder out in the early rounds (a strategy which is evidenced by Fury's trainer change and coming into this rematch at a heavier weight). I'm partially hedging the bet with a bet on the under 10.5 rounds (which I got early in the week at +110 but can still be had for around -115); this bet covers most scenarios where Wilder knocks Fury out but also covers most scenarios where Fury actually pulls off what it seems he's going into the fight with the full intention of doing - knocking Wilder out.

Lastly, I'd like to note that I largely view the Wilder vs. Fury rematch - both in the promotion of the fight and in the actual fight itself - as a (very well-played) game of optics; for the fight itself these "optics" I think have swayed even some boxing experts to the Wilder side of the ledger.

Optics present Wilder/Fury II as a megafight; one of the most anticipated heavyweight fights of this generation and perhaps the most anticipated heavyweight fight since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson back in 2002. But the reality is this fight might be the most over-promoted fight in the 100+ year history of boxing. The massive multi-million dollar, dual-network promotion invested in this fight belies the fact that the first Wilder/Fury fight only did 325,000 PPV buys and that both fighters have had disappointing ratings in *all* the fights they've appeared in since that first fight. Neither Wilder or Fury's name carries mainstream cache (the majority of Americans don't even know who they are) and as of right now just a few hours prior to the fight, there are still numerous tickets available for the fight in an arena with a capacity of approximately 17,000 for boxing events. As of now, neither fighter even has a solid hall-of-fame resume (though Wilder's is perhaps borderline); in sum, one would be very hard-pressed to believe the actual caliber of this fight comes even close to matching the promotional resources invested into it.

Wilder's knockdowns, most notably his dramatic knockdown of Fury in the 12th round of their previous fight, provide impressive optics for those who might otherwise have been inclined to believe Fury would win the rematch. The reality is, Fury did avoid Wilder's power for nearly the entire fight and - in my opinion - likely only got caught in the 12th round after getting careless thinking he had the fight won.

Wilder's "swagger" (for lack of a better term at this moment,) is yet another impressive optic. Coming from a family of preachers, Wilder was blessed with a gift of gab and exudes extreme amounts of confidence - not only in how he expresses himself verbally but in his overall demeanor. At the end of the day, Wilder has always gotten the job done in the ring. But I do also think the swagger, confidence, and optics of his knockdowns have overstated his actual abilities a bit and think he's been a bit overrated (by casual fans and boxing experts alike) as a result. While expressed differently, I do believe Fury has a comparable level of confidence and self-belief as Wilder to match his superior skills and believe that will show clearly in tonight's fight.

Prediction: Fury to win

Recommended bets: 1) Fury to win (bet to RISK 1 unit) 2) Wilder/Fury under 10.5 rounds (risk .5 unit)