Gervonta Davis vs. Ryan Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Gervonta Davis (28-0, 26 KOs) vs. Ryan Garcia (23-0, 19 KOs) 

Location:  T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: April 22, 2023
Weight class: Super lightweight (catchweight of 136 lbs)
Major title(s) on the line: None
TV/Stream: Showtim PPV/DAZN PPV
Line (Bovada): Davis: -225, Garcia: +185  (as of 4/21/23)
Purse: Davis: $ million, Garcia: $ million 
Ring Magazine Rankings: Davis: #2 ranked lightweight, Garcia: #3 ranked lightweight
Style: Davis: Southpaw, Garcia: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

In a lot of ways, I see the value in taking Ryan Garcia to win this fight as a 2-1 underdog (or even as high as an 8-1 underdog if betting him to win by decision). At the end of the day, Garcia is a highly-accomplished, undefeated fighter with an inordinate amount of self-confidence. (As boxing fans know, confidence and self-belief goes a long, long way in this sport - perhaps more so than any other sport.) Garcia also happens to be the bigger, faster, and taller fighter, and will enter Saturday's fight with a slight - but still very notable - 2.5" reach advantage. 

Garcia has concussive power with lighting-quick hands that - similar to Manny Pacquiao in his heydey - actually amplify the effect of his power. (Obviously not saying Garcia is as great as the Filipino legend, just comparing the speed and its effect on their punching power.) At only 24 years old, he's even the younger fighter in this matchup... many still look at Gervonta as a very young fighter despite the fact that he's actually fast approaching his 30s (Gervonta turns 29 later this year). 

Saturday's fight is likely the first fight in Gervonta's professional career where he'll face a fighter who has quicker hands, faster reflexes, and a longer reach than he does. Boxing observers might be underestimating - perhaps severely - how difficult it might be for Gervonta to close distance and land punches effectively given Ryan's advantages here. And given Gervonta's propensity for starting slow in fights, he might dig himself into a hole in the early rounds that might be too difficult to come back from if Ryan can manage distance well enough and use his advantages in length and quickness to evade Gervonta's pressure in the mid to late rounds. 

We've already seen several upsets of undefeated, highly-regarded fighters in just the past couple of months (Rey Vargas, Sebastian Fundora, and Joe Joyce perhaps the most notable examples). Garcia defeating Gervonta Davis would certainly be the most high-profile upset of them all, though Garcia is actually considered less of an underdog than any of the fighters who beat the aforementioned Vargas (O'Shaquie Foster at +225), Fundora (Brian Mendoza at +620), or Joyce (Zhilei Zhang at +560) were in the opening betting lines for those fights.  At nearly +200 to win, or even +800 by decision, betting a small amount on Ryan Garcia to win is intriguing and may have some value. 

But I really like Gervonta in this matchup. I think his advantages in all-around skill, ring IQ, and big fight experience will shine through on Saturday night. Over the past several years, including recent fights, Gervonta in my opinion has proven himself to be a more complete, more technically-skilled boxer than Ryan. Now I'd rate Gervonta's reflexes - and arguably even his power - as not quite as good as Ryan's. But Tank does have trigger-quick, concussive power of his own that I think will ultimately prove to be much more effective than Ryan's down the stretch. 

For all the hype and attention surrounding Gervonta's knockout power and aggression, Gervonta is by nature a patient, thinking fighter with vastly underrated ring IQ. In consistency with his cautiously aggressive style, Gervonta will likely place much higher priority than the sometimes reckless Ryan - who's defensive deficiencies (most notably his tendency of fighting in a tall, upright stance with his chin up) are much more glaring - on responsible defense and evading potential fight-ending counters. 

Ryan has in multiple fights also shown a questionable chin - most notably getting knocked down in the 2nd round of his January 2021 TKO victory vs. Luke Campbell. (Luke Campbell was a solid, respected fighter, though was never a fighter known for his punching power.) I suspect Gervonta, on the other hand, may prove to have a granite chin. (The fact that Gervonta has never even come close to getting knocked down or knocked out in his pro career and even the structure and density of Gervonta's larger-than-normal sized head is evidence of this.)

Gervonta is a smart, fundamentally sound fighter who's consistently shown the ability to make adjustments and apply pressure with increasing efficiency as fights get into the middle and later rounds. Gervonta actually throws the fewest punches per round of any CompuBox-tracked fighter but is #1 amongst all CompuBox-tracked fighters in the percentage of times (47.6%) he lands power punches... a testament to his cautiously aggressive -yet highly accurate - style. 

Garcia seems supremely confident heading into Saturday's matchup, but he's still very young and will be headlining a PPV even for the first time in his career. Gervonta is equally confident, but has much more experience on this stage; Saturday's fight will be his 6th consecutive fight as the A-side for a PPV event.

As quick-tempered and emotional as Gervonta sometimes is outside of the ring, he's consistently shown Mayweather-esque poise inside of it, including the ability to block out whatever issues/troubles he might have going on in his personal life. I think Gervonta's poise and patient fighting style will get rewarded when Garcia's defensive deficiencies (upright chin, tendency to drop hands and predictably pull back in a straight line when moving out of the pocket, below average foot positioning, etc.) catch up to him in the mid to late rounds. Both fighters will land power punches - I just see Gervonta being able to handle Garcia's landed punches better due to having a better chin, more responsible defense, and previous experience in tough, big fights. Garcia is also at times reckless and overeager to land his power shots - which I think plays perfectly into the hands of a much more cautious fighter like Gervonta.

The clear play for me here is Gervonta Davis by TKO/KO/DQ at -150 or better (I bet Gervonta by TKO/KO/DQ at -132 odds). With that said - given the advantages I outlined earlier for Garcia - it may also be worth hedging this bet with Ryan Garcia to win by decision at +600 or better given how wide those odds are (though I personally won't be making this bet).

Definitely looking forward to attending this fight! Will likely be the most star-studded boxing event since the final boxing events involving Floyd Mayweather several years ago. The clash of styles, personalities, and even fan demographics here between the two fighters is fascinating so will be very curious to see how this all plays out. Good luck in however you decide to bet!

Prediction: Davis by TKO/KO/DQ

Recommended bet: Davis by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to WIN 1 unit) 

Fury vs. Wilder III: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Tyson Fury (30-0-1, 21 KOs) vs. Deontay Wilder (42-1-1, 41 KOs) 

Location:  T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: October 9, 2021
Weight class: Heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World heavyweight title
TV/Stream: ESPN/FOX PPV
Line (Bovada): Fury: -275, Wilder: +215   (10/9/21)
Purse: Fury: $6 million, Wilder: $4 million (base salary; Fury will be guaranteed at least $30 million, while Wilder will be guaranteed at least $20 million based upon the contracted 60/40 split for the 3rd fight, not including percentages of PPV profits)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Fury: Ring Magazine heavyweight champion, Wilder: #3 ranked heavyweight 
Style: Fury: Orthodox, Wilder: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Wilder wins this fight. Fight fans talk all the time about "puncher's chance." Wilder might actually be the best example in the history of boxing of a fighter who always has a puncher's chance with his historically great punching power that I think gives him a legitimate shot to beat anyone put in front of him - including the objectively more skilled Fury who's arguably won as many as 17 of the 19 rounds they've fought in their two previous fights. 

Wilder will be coming off the longest layoff of his career but Fury himself will be coming off his 2nd longest layoff - a nearly 20-month layoff during the latter part of which he caught COVID (reportedly suffering mild breathing and congestion issues as a result) and most recently had to also deal with the huge disappointment  of losing a potentially massive payday in a future unification bout with Anthony Joshua is what would've been the biggest fight in the history of UK boxing. (Two weeks ago, the favored Joshua lost his WBA, IBF, and WBO heavyweight titles to undefeated Ukrainian Olexandr Usyk; a victory by Joshua vs. Usyk followed by a Fury win tonight would've set the stage for a Joshua/Fury matchup in 2022 for the undisputed heavyweight championship in which Fury would've been the favorite. Paydays were expected to approach $100 million for each fighter in that matchup.)  

Will a fighter notorious for his unpredictability and at times (given his diagnosed bipolar disorder) lack of mental instability), coming off an extended layoff where he had to recover from COVID and experience the disappointment of losing a possible career-defining fight vs. Joshua be sufficiently motivated to beat a fighter he already feels he beat twice? (The first fight between Fury and Wilder in 2018 was officially scored a draw, though most felt Fury outboxed Wilder in that matchup.) Wilder comes into this fight seeking revenge for the embarrassing TKO loss in their February 2020 rematch - one gets the impression Wilder wants this more and has much more to lose career-wise than Fury in tonight's matchup. Despite the loss to Fury in their previous fight, Wilder seems extremely confident and determined to win - it wouldn't surprise me at all if he puts everything together and pulls off the stoppage... as he came within a fraction of a second of doing in the final round of their first fight.

But I think - as he's already demonstrated in the clear majority of the 19 rounds he's faced Wilder in their two previous fights - Fury's skills will be too much for Wilder to overcome. Since he beat Vladimir Klitschko in 2015, I've felt Fury is the best heavyweight of this generation (i.e., better than even prime Klitschko and the best heavyweight fighter since Lennox Lewis). Fury mostly outboxed Wilder in their first fight, then made adjustments to more effectively utilize his advantages in size and strength to completely dominate the slightly favored Wilder in last year's rematch. Wilder is renowned for his punching power, but not so much for his technical boxing skills or ability to make adjustments. Even with his new trainer, Malik Scott, I seriously doubt Wilder's ability to effectively make adjustments vs. a supremely-skilled heavyweight like Fury. Wilder failed to make adjustments in his previous fight vs. Fury (losing the first 6 rounds on 2 of the 3 judges' scorecards before getting stopped in the 7th) and even failed to make adjustments in his fight prior to that - his rematch vs. Luis Ortiz where he also arguably lost every round in that fight before stopping Ortiz in the 7th. 

Wilder is a predictable, relatively basic boxer who had trouble landing punches on Fury in both previous fights, landing only 16.5% of his attempted punches in their first fight and a still very low 24.1% in their rematch where Fury fought more aggressively coming forward. Wilder's punch output has also (noticeably) declined in recent fights. There's nothing in Wilder's previous fights - in particular the rematches he's already had vs. Fury and Ortiz - that makes me think he can make the adjustments necessary to have more than a puncher's chance of beating Fury. Wilder's nature is to fight one way (behind the punching power in his right hand); at 35 years old and arguably a bit past his prime, that's highly unlikely to change in a way that will be effective vs. perhaps the best heavyweight fighter of this generation. 

I think Fury, as he's indicated several times in recent pre-fight interviews, will be as aggressive and physical as he was in the last fight and aim for another early round stoppage of Wilder. Wilder, having full confidence in his own power and seeing how Fury bullied through his cautious approach in their rematch, will at some point in tonight's fight - probably early in the fight - feel he has no choice but to reciprocate Fury's aggression and come out swinging. 

While Wilder will likely be more prepared for Fury's tactics this time around, I don't see this fight going the distance - I see a stoppage one way or the other in the early to middle rounds. Most likely, Fury will be able to - as he did in the last fight - use his superior size, jab, movement, and overall skill advantage to outphysical and outwit Wilder to earn another TKO/KO victory. Fury's increased aggression will of course leave him more susceptible to Wilder's power, so it's certainly well within the range of possibility it's Wilder who gets the stoppage this time around.

Given the pricing of Fury as a (roughly) -300 betting favorite, I feel the bet with the most value as of now is the under 7.5 rounds (which can currently be found around even money odds), with a smaller bet on Fury to win by TKO/KO/DQ (which can also be found at around even money odds) also being worthwhile. The main fight could certainly go either way but very much looking forward to the all-heavyweight PPV card tonight!

Prediction: Fury to win

Recommended bets: 1) Under 7.5 rounds (bet to WIN .5 unit) 2) Fury to win by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to WIN .25 unit)

Wilder vs. Fury II: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Deontay Wilder (42-0-1, 41 KOs) vs. Tyson Fury (29-0-1, 20 KOs)
Location:  MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: February 22, 2020
Weight class: Heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World heavyweight title
TV/Stream: ESPN/FOX PPV
Line (5 Dimes): Wilder: -131, Fury: +121  (12/20/20)
Purse: Wilder: $5 million, Fury: $5 million (though both will be guaranteed at least $25 million each, not including percentages of PPV profits)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Fury: #1 ranked heavyweight
Style: Wilder: Orthodox, Fury: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

I've found it (mildly) surprising that a clear majority of boxing experts/sharps - including quite a few who picked Fury to win the first fight and actually thought he won that fight despite the fight being scored a draw - are picking Wilder to win by TKO/KO in the rematch. Indeed, Wilder by TKO/KO *might* be the most likely of all specific outcomes so might - especially at well above even money odds (currently +125 at 5Dimes) - be the best bet on this fight. As noted (perhaps ad nauseam) in the massive Fox/ESPN promotion for the fight, Deontay Wilder might have the hardest single punch in the *history* of boxing with his straight right hand. Wilder has the highest TKO/KO percentage in heavyweight boxing history (95.4%) and has either knocked out or knocked down every fighter he's ever faced in his professional career, including knocking Fury down twice in the last four rounds of their first fight. 

Wilder - who took up boxing relatively late at 20 years old - is actually a still-improving fighter who has shown noticeable improvement in most of his recent fights in particular. Wilder's improvement is reflected in the fact that in each of his two previous rematches (vs. Bermane Stiverne in November 2017 and Luis Ortiz in 2019), Wilder was able to finish his opponent faster in the rematch than he was in the first fight; it certainly stands to reason that there's a very good chance Wilder could look similarly impressive in tonight's rematch vs. Fury.

To his credit, Wilder did  make the necessary adjustments  - in the last four rounds of his first fight vs. Fury - to his punch trajectory that enabled him to knock Fury down twice and almost stop him in the 12th round. It stands to reason that Wilder's successful adjustments (which speak to at least a partial "figuring out" of Fury's defensive movement) will carry over into the rematch.

The fact that Fury just three months ago switched trainers (from Ben Davidson to the Kronk Gym's SugarHill Steward) for tonight's rematch might also be of concern to Fury supporters, as it typically takes time for even experienced, elite boxers to adjust to a new trainer (though Fury is familiar with Steward from having previously trained under his uncle Emmanuel Steward many years ago at the same gym). All indications are that the switch in trainers was made to implement a more aggressive, come-forward attack strategy vs. Wilder with the hopes of beating Wilder by knockout; this could very well prove to be a foolhardy strategy vs. one of the hardest punchers in the history of boxing as it perhaps will do little more than increase Fury's own chances of getting knocked out himself.

Furthermore, Fury weighing in for this fight at 273 pounds - 16.5 pounds heavier than he weighed in his first fight with Wilder - could render him less able to be as mobile and elusive as he likely will need to be at certain points of the fight, particularly in the late stages where he was knocked down twice in the previous fight vs. Wilder. (Despite the draw, Fury won the first fight in most people's eyes largely by employing his typical rangy, pot shot-from-distance style with constant movement that helped him mostly avoid Wilder's knockout punches for *most* of the fight.)

I did pick Wilder to win by TKO/KO in the first fight, though that was nearly entirely because I felt Fury took that fight too soon after a 2.5 year layoff  - a layoff riddled with mental health and substance abuse issues, as well as a near 150-pound weight gain - and not having fought any world-class competition in the months in the months leading up to that fight to prep himself. It seems even more boxing experts (including gambling "sharps" generally sharper at picking fights than myself) are picking Wilder to win by TKO/KO in tonight's rematch.

But despite all the concerns I've detailed above - including the recent trainer change and weight gain coming in to tonight's fight - I'm going to go against what seems to be the sentiment of most boxing experts and stick with my months-old (since the rematch was announced last Spring) prediction  that Tyson Fury will win his rematch with Wilder (and will win in likely decisive fashion).

Despite all the concerns I've noted above, at the end of the day Fury is the better-skilled, smarter, defensively-sharper, overall superior boxer who - by most boxing observers' estimation - decisively outboxed Wilder in their first fight, outside of the two rounds in the fight where he was knocked down. Yes, Wilder has proven himself to be one of the better knockout artists in boxing history, but I firmly believe the 12th-round knockdown in the first fight was more the result of Fury getting careless and believing he already had the fight won. (According to the official judges' scorecards, Fury would indeed have won the fight by split decision if he hadn't gotten knocked down in the last round). I see Fury ramping up his focus in the rematch and finding a way through his superior guile and fighting abilities - whether it be using his reach advantage and footwork to outbox Wilder from distance as he did in the first fight or using his size advantage and increased weight to impose his physicality on the inside as he's claimed he might do in the lead-up to the fight - to avoid the knockout punches he suffered when he got careless in the late stages of the first fight and box his way to a decisive victory.

One oft-repeated mantra of boxing is that in rematches between a boxer and a puncher, it is generally the (more fundamentally skilled) boxer who performs better in the rematch, as the boxer is typically more equipped to make the tactical adjustments necessary to more decisively outbox the puncher (given that the puncher is typically less diverse in terms of the range of his fighting abilities). Many are of the belief that it will actually be Wilder who performs better in tonight's fight, given that he did make adjustments in the late stages of the previous fight and given his history of improvement in rematches - as well as the room he has as a still somewhat raw fighter to improve in comparison to Fury, who many felt fought about as well as he could fight in the first match, yet still only earned a draw. But I think the boxer-over-puncher in rematches mantra will hold up in this fight (as it's more often than not held up in similar situations) and think Fury has trained to exploit the flaws in Wilder that he realized from the first fight (which is likely at least partly reflected in his decision to change trainers and come into this fight over 15 pounds heavier).

So I'm taking the superior boxer (Fury) to outbox and outwit the superior puncher (Wilder) in the rematch. While I think Fury most likely wins by decision, I prefer the bet of Fury simply to win (which can currently be had at +110 or better) given Fury's stated strategy of going into the fight with the purpose of trying to knock Wilder out in the early rounds (a strategy which is evidenced by Fury's trainer change and coming into this rematch at a heavier weight). I'm partially hedging the bet with a bet on the under 10.5 rounds (which I got early in the week at +110 but can still be had for around -115); this bet covers most scenarios where Wilder knocks Fury out but also covers most scenarios where Fury actually pulls off what it seems he's going into the fight with the full intention of doing - knocking Wilder out.

Lastly, I'd like to note that I largely view the Wilder vs. Fury rematch - both in the promotion of the fight and in the actual fight itself - as a (very well-played) game of optics; for the fight itself these "optics" I think have swayed even some boxing experts to the Wilder side of the ledger.

Optics present Wilder/Fury II as a megafight; one of the most anticipated heavyweight fights of this generation and perhaps the most anticipated heavyweight fight since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson back in 2002. But the reality is this fight might be the most over-promoted fight in the 100+ year history of boxing. The massive multi-million dollar, dual-network promotion invested in this fight belies the fact that the first Wilder/Fury fight only did 325,000 PPV buys and that both fighters have had disappointing ratings in *all* the fights they've appeared in since that first fight. Neither Wilder or Fury's name carries mainstream cache (the majority of Americans don't even know who they are) and as of right now just a few hours prior to the fight, there are still numerous tickets available for the fight in an arena with a capacity of approximately 17,000 for boxing events. As of now, neither fighter even has a solid hall-of-fame resume (though Wilder's is perhaps borderline); in sum, one would be very hard-pressed to believe the actual caliber of this fight comes even close to matching the promotional resources invested into it.

Wilder's knockdowns, most notably his dramatic knockdown of Fury in the 12th round of their previous fight, provide impressive optics for those who might otherwise have been inclined to believe Fury would win the rematch. The reality is, Fury did avoid Wilder's power for nearly the entire fight and - in my opinion - likely only got caught in the 12th round after getting careless thinking he had the fight won.

Wilder's "swagger" (for lack of a better term at this moment,) is yet another impressive optic. Coming from a family of preachers, Wilder was blessed with a gift of gab and exudes extreme amounts of confidence - not only in how he expresses himself verbally but in his overall demeanor. At the end of the day, Wilder has always gotten the job done in the ring. But I do also think the swagger, confidence, and optics of his knockdowns have overstated his actual abilities a bit and think he's been a bit overrated (by casual fans and boxing experts alike) as a result. While expressed differently, I do believe Fury has a comparable level of confidence and self-belief as Wilder to match his superior skills and believe that will show clearly in tonight's fight.

Prediction: Fury to win

Recommended bets: 1) Fury to win (bet to RISK 1 unit) 2) Wilder/Fury under 10.5 rounds (risk .5 unit)

Canelo vs. Jacobs: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (51-1-2 35 KOs) vs. Daniel Jacobs (35-2, 29 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 4, 2019
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World middleweight, WBA Super World middleweight, and IBF World middleweight titles
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line: Alvarez: -430, Jacobs: +380 (5 Dimes, 5/2/19)
Purse: Alvarez: $35 million, Jacobs: $2.5 million (though will be guaranteed over $10 million for this fight per terms of his contract with DAZN)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #3 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Jacobs: #2 ranked middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Jacobs: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Why you should watch this fight

In mid-October of last year, Canelo Alvarez signed what at the time was the largest contract for a single athlete in sports history - a 5-year, 11-fight deal worth at least $365 million with sports streaming service DAZN. A few months later, Gennady Golovkin - winless after two (very) controversial decisions vs. Canelo that knocked him from the top of many pound-for-pound rankings - followed suit in signing a lucrative deal of his own, also with DAZN (3-year, 6-fight deal reportedly worth at least $100 million).

Given the two signings (combined worth nearly half a billion dollars), all signs point to a third fight between Golovkin and Canelo either this September or in May 2020 at the latest, a fight which might cap what will likely go down as one of the great trilogies in the history of boxing. But before the much-anticipated third fight, Canelo must first get through what will likely be a tough, competitive unification fight with IBF middleweight champion Danny Jacobs.

Since Floyd Mayweather Jr.'s retirement, Canelo has been (by far) boxing's biggest PPV attraction and is considered by many to be the most popular fighter in the sport. (With the emergence of sports streaming services like DAZN and ESPN+, Canelo might even go down in history as boxing's last true PPV star.) At just 28 years old, Canelo is still in the middle of his prime and coming off of two big wins in 2018  - a 3rd-round knockout of Rocky Fielding this past December that earned Canelo the WBA super middleweight title (the third division in which he's won a major title) and the biggest win of his career last September vs. then-undefeated, #1 pound-for-pound ranked Golovkin.

This Saturday, Canelo will face Jacobs in just the 2nd fight of his 11-fight contract with DAZN. On the surface, the fight with Jacobs is just an interim fight for Canelo warming him up for the inevitable 3rd mega-fight with Golovkin. But Jacobs is an outstanding, A-level boxer with elite punching power (78% KO ratio, which includes - with the exception of his loss to Golovkin - either a knockdown or knockout in each of his 16 fights over the past 8.5 years) who is poised to give Canelo fits with his size and reach advantage, superior speed and athleticism, and ability to box on the move. Jacobs is also a composed but determined, high IQ fighter who fought a very competitive fight with Golovkin in 2017. (I was at this fight and actually scored it 114-113 for Jacobs despite betting on Golovkin to win by TKO/KO.) Jacobs' close, unanimous decision loss to Golovkin actually ended Golovkin's 9-year, 23-fight KO streak.

The winner of Saturday's fight will be the unified WBC, WBA, and IBF middleweight champion and is likely headed for a mega-fight rematch with Golovkin next. Assuming the winner of Canelo vs. Jacobs does fight Golovkin next, what looms after the fight with Golovkin is a unification fight vs. WBO middleweight champion (and fellow DAZN-signed fighter) Demetrius Andrade for the undisputed middleweight championship. Whoever earns that undisputed middleweight championship will be the 1st undisputed middleweight champion since Jermain Taylor in 2006.

Saturday night will be Canelo's record 5th time fighting at T-Mobile Arena since the venue opened in 2016 and 12th time overall fighting in Las Vegas. (Saturday night will be Jacob's 1st time fighting at T-Mobile and 1st time fighting in Las Vegas since 2010.)

Prefight Analysis

There's a lot to like about Daniel Jacobs in this matchup. Besides having excellent power at middleweight (to the extent that Golovkin - who has never been knocked down or knocked out as an amateur or pro - had to respect Jacobs' power, staying cautious throughout large stretches of the fight), Jacobs is the naturally bigger, more mobile fighter with a 2.5" reach advantage. Canelo has struggled in the past vs. rangier fighters who move well (Mayweather, Erislandy Lara, Austin Trout); Jacobs certainly fits this description and is in many ways a bigger, stronger, more skilled version of a prime Austin Trout, who fought a close, competitive fight vs. Canelo in 2013 (that some observers felt he won - I scored that fight 114-113 for Canelo).

As he did with Golovkin, Jacobs should be able to at least in spots frustrate Canelo with movement behind a long jab; if anything Jacobs should have more success moving behind his jab vs. Canelo than he did vs. Golovkin given that Canelo is a bit more flat-footed, doesn't cut off the ring quite as well, and isn't quite the threat in terms of volume and punching power that Golovkin is.

At as high as a 4-1 (+400) underdog, I think Jacobs is being underrated in this matchup. Jacobs is an A minus/A-level fighter who has only lost twice in his career - his close, competitive loss to Golovkin in 2017 (again a fight which I actually edged to Jacobs despite betting on and rooting for Golovkin to win) and his 2010 5th-round TKO loss to Dmitry Pirog, a fight in which Jacobs was leading 3-1 on all three judges' scorecards at the time of stoppage. (Note that Pirog was a very highly regarded, undefeated prospect that many felt had the same level of talent as Golovkin coming up. Despite winning the vacant WBO middleweight title vs. Jacobs and successfully defending it for nearly two years, Pirog was forced to retire right before a scheduled fight with Golovkin because of a debilitating back injury suffered during training.) Jacobs is also a fighter who has either knocked down or knocked out each of his last 16 opponents over the course of the past 8.5 years years (with the exception of Golovkin). This list of opponents includes slick, elusive fighters who had never previously been stopped in their careers. In my opinion, Jacobs actually performed slightly better in his 2017 matchup with Golovkin than Canelo did in either of his two matchups with the Kazakh fighter - sticking behind his long jab and wearing Golovkin down in the later rounds with constant movement and timely punching.

Jacobs also comes across as a man of exceptional character and strong sense of determination - as evidenced inside the ring by how he performed after he got knocked down in the 4th round of his fight with Golovkin and outside the ring by how he overcame a rare form of bone cancer where Jacobs was told by doctors he would never box again and might not ever walk again. Any man who has overcome what Jacobs has overcome in life won't be intimidated by Canelo or the prospect of fighting what will be by far the biggest fight of his career in front of a hostile, Canelo-friendly crowd. I expect Jacobs to put up a solid performance vs. Canelo, frustrating a smaller, less athletic, relatively flat-footed Canelo with length and constant movement, which I think may re-introduce the stamina issues Canelo has had in several fights in his career, including his 1st fight with Golovkin.

With all this said, I do think Canelo probably wins this fight. I see Canelo as (perhaps by far) the more skilled, accurate power puncher, particularly when executing his body attack. Jacobs has good movement but I think Canelo will be able to counterpunch effectively in spots where Jacobs is throwing his own power punches within range. Jacobs may win the jab battle from distance but I see Canelo getting the better of close-range exchanges, which typically make more of an impression on the judges in terms of scoring. Note that Maciej Sulecki who, like Canelo, is an effective combination puncher with fast hands, had success landing power punches in many stretches of his fight last year with Jacobs - a fight that was close and competitive until Jacobs knocked Sulecki down in the 12th round. Canelo is in many ways a (much) more skilled, heavier-handed version of Sulecki; it is likely with his superior skills and accuracy that he will have more success landing power punches on Jacobs than even Sulecki did.

Scoring seems to play a controversial (and often pivotal) role in most of Canelo's big fights. At this point you have to think that there's a good chance that this will again be the case Saturday night, especially given that the three judges for the fight (Dave Moretti, Glenn Feldman, and Steve Weisfeld) will be the same three judges that controversially scored Canelo's 2nd fight with Golovkin in favor of Canelo. (Canelo's 2nd fight with Golovkin was a very close fight that most felt Golovkin edged.) Canelo is the biggest draw in in the sport and - from a boxing politics standpoint - is certainly the favored, more heavily promoted fighter in this matchup. Canelo is only the second fight into one of the largest contracts for an individual athlete in the history of pro sports; a loss for Canelo here could (at least from a monetary standpoint) be semi-devastating for DAZN and the sport of boxing as a whole. Canelo has gotten (very) favorable scoring in every big fight of his career (most notably including one judge scoring his 2013 fight with Mayweather - a fight most felt Mayweather clearly dominated - a draw and another judge scoring 10 out of 12 rounds of his 1st fight with Golovkin in his favor - a score which even Canelo and his promoter Oscar De La Hoya disagreed with). I feel there is a good chance biased scoring could come into play yet again Saturday night in what will likely be a close and competitive fight.

Jacobs is older but Canelo is the decidedly more experienced fighter, having essentially fought a who's who list of boxers since his early 20s. This experience - along with the wide variety of styles Canelo has faced throughout the prime of his career - is one of the reasons he seems to get (noticeably) better with each fight. As a fighter still in the middle of his prime I think there's a good chance we'll see an even further improved Canelo in Saturday's fight.

While not as fast as Jacobs on foot, Canelo has deceptively fast hand speed (i.e., likely faster hand speed that Jacobs) which is one of the reasons I anticipate he'll be able to counter Jacobs effectively within range, especially to the body. Despite Jacobs' physical advantages I wouldn't be surprised if Canelo stops Danny given his ability - which perhaps is the best in boxing at the moment - to throw fast and varied power punch combinations with accuracy.

Given Canelo's advantages in skill and experience, along with what I suspect will be a fight scored with at least a shade of pro-Canelo bias in front of what will be an overwhelmingly pro-Canelo crowd on Cinco De Mayo weekend at T-Mobile Arena, I grade Canelo as roughly a 70/30 favorite to win this fight. But, Jacobs is currently being listed as a nearly +400 underdog at many sportsbooks (currently as high as +405 at Bet Online) which implies that sportsbooks feel Jacobs has roughly only a 20% chance to win the fight. Given what I believe to be an undervaluation of Jacobs in the sportsbook market for this fight I actually think taking Jacobs to win is the bet with the best value (despite the fact that I do grade Canelo as a strong favorite to win this fight). If I felt sketchy judging definitely wouldn't be a factor I would take Jacobs to win at those odds quickly without even thinking about it; Jacobs is a highly skilled fighter with a combination of size, power, reach, and determination than Canelo has never seen before which I think at minimum makes Jacob a very live underdog.

Again, I think Jacobs likely loses this fight and - given the politics surrounding the fight and history of scoring in big fights involving Canelo - it's tough to envision Jacobs winning by decision on the scorecards. But I think at nearly 4-1, the odds are too good to pass up a bet on Jacobs given his elite-level skills and the numerous physical advantages he'll have in this matchup. So I'll be taking a small bet on Jacobs to win with an even smaller bet on a draw (at 20-1) as pure value plays.

But this fight could go a number of ways - I'll be in attendance and will be looking forward to see how everything pans out!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bets: 
1) Jacobs to win (.25 unit) 
2) Alvarez/Jacobs draw (.1 unit)

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Canelo vs. Golovkin II: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (49-1-2 34 KOs) vs. Gennady Golovkin (38-0-1, 34 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 15, 2018
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World middleweight and WBA Super World middleweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez: +140, Golovkin: -150 (5 Dimes, 9/15/18)
Purse: Alvarez: $5 million, Golovkin: $5 million  (guaranteed money only - both fighters stand to make substantially more based on a 55% Canelo/45% Golovkin split of PPV revenues, ticket sales, etc.)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: Not ranked (due to PED suspension), Golovkin: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Golovkin: Orthodox
Referee: Benjy Estevez

Why you should watch this fight

Because this is (by far) the most anticipated fight of the year - a surefire action-packed matchup between probably the two best middleweights in the world who also happen to be two of the best fighters in the world pound-for-pound.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin is the long-awaited rematch of a fantastic fight last year that ended in a (very) controversial draw. Most (including me, who scored the fight 8 rounds to 4 for Golovkin) felt Golovkin clearly won the fight. Earlier this year, a rematch of last year's fight was agreed to and scheduled to take place in May, but was ultimately cancelled and rescheduled for tonight due to Canelo's two failed tests for the performance-enhancing drug clenbuterol, which resulted in Canelo receiving a 6-month suspension from the Nevada Athletic Commission. (The suspension was effective beginning in February and just ended last month.)

Canelo's failed drug tests (and resulting suspension) has somewhat diminished the popularity of the wildly popular Mexican boxer - even amongst his own countrymen. The controversy surrounding the failed tests also generated significant (and very genuine) tension and dislike between Canelo and Golovkin, who were previously on relatively friendly terms. Still, Canelo is easily the top PPV attraction in boxing; despite lack of heavy promotion, last year's Canelo vs. Golovkin fight sold 1.3 million buys - the most PPV buys for a boxing match not involving Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson in 2002. (Tonight's fight is widely expected to exceed the 1.3 million buys from last year's fight.) Canelo is still in the middle of his prime - with elite boxing skills to match his popularity - and still only has one loss on his record (to the undefeated and now retired Mayweather).

Canelo will be facing an aging, but still deadly Golovkin who - at 36 years old - is still arguably the best knockout artist in boxing, having just come off a 2nd-round KO victory vs. Vanes Martirosyan in his last fight this past May. Golovkin is actually the #1-ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world by Ring Magazine and has won 34 out of his 39 fights - including 24 out of his last 26 fights - by stoppage for a KO% of 87%, the highest KO% in middleweight boxing history. 

The winner of this fight will have earned what will be the most significant win of their career (a win that will likely be considered the signature win of their career years from now upon retirement) and will have a solid claim as the best fighter in the world pound-for-pound. For Golovkin this would be the best win of an already hall-of-fame career and move him further up the list of the greatest middleweights of all time. If he retires tomorrow, Canelo is already a probable hall-of-famer but a win this Saturday over an undefeated Golovkin would secure his status as a Mexican legend. A win for Canelo would also go along way towards regaining respect from the numerous boxing fans who question whether his career has been unfairly bolstered by performance-enhancing drugs (given his recent failed drug tests).

The winner of this fight could possibly be in line for a unification megafight next year with undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders, who is defending his title next month in Boston vs. undefeated - and highly regarded - middleweight Demetrius Andrade.

Prefight Analysis

Last year, I picked Golovkin to win the first fight and - as many observers did - thought he won convincingly. Although Golovkin didn't knock Canelo out as I expected, I thought he was certainly the more effective aggressor; per CompuBox stats he threw and landed more punches in 10 out of 12 rounds of the fight, maintained consistent pressure behind his jab, and dominated the middle rounds when Canelo tired after a solid start in the first 3 rounds.

It would be very reasonable to think not much will change for the rematch tonight. I still think Canelo is the better-skilled boxer (as he was last year in their first fight) but the rematch - as with the first fight - still likely features a mismatch in effective power and pressure that will be difficult for Canelo to overcome. It's hard to imagine that the bigger, physically stronger, superior (and perhaps historically great) power puncher in Golovkin won't still be effective in pressuring a smaller, relatively low-volume, flat-footed fighter in Canelo despite Canelo's ring intelligence, deceptive elusiveness, and superior skill. One also needs to consider that the stamina problems that plagued Canelo in the middle rounds of his first fight with Golovkin (and have plagued him in the middle to late rounds of numerous prior fights to the extent that he often takes portions of rounds off to conserve energy) likely won't just go away for this fight - at least to some extent we should expect Canelo's notorious issues with stamina to manifest again vs. a constantly pressuring Golovkin.

Also consider that ring rust and diminished mobility may possibly be factors in tonight's rematch. Canelo has been inactive for a year - the longest layoff of his 12-year career - and is coming off a knee surgery in April for which he is still wearing a knee brace. 

Golovkin is correctly graded as the favorite for the rematch. But the more I think about this fight, the more I think Canelo has a very real shot here for the upset. In general for rematches, we at least somewhat know what to expect relative to fights where fighters are facing each other for the first time. But this particular rematch is a bit different as there are numerous unknown variables and unanswered questions to consider, including:

 How much has Golovkin regressed since his previous fight with Canelo? At 36 years old, Golovkin is past his prime and has shown in some recent fights - including his last fight vs. Canelo and his fight last year vs. Danny Jacobs - that he doesn't cut off the ring and pressure nearly as well as he did in his prime. In his last fight, Golovkin made quick work of Vanes Martirosyan, winning by KO in the 2nd round. But Martirosyan was a lesser-caliber opponent who was fighting on only a few weeks notice for the first time at middleweight after a two-year layoff. Canelo, on the other hand, is still in the middle of his prime and has noticeably improved with each fight since his 2013 loss to Mayweather. Canelo handled Golovkin's pressure much better than expected in their first fight; the most likely scenario would be that Canelo has an even better performance vs. a slower, aging Golovkin one year later.

Was Canelo on performance enhancing drugs for the previous fight? Canelo failed two drug tests leading up to the previously scheduled rematch date in May, testing positive for the performance enhancing drug clenbuterol. He has vehemently denied accusations of drug use, blaming the failed drug tests on tainted meat. Like most I'm highly skeptical of this denial but lean towards giving him the benefit of the doubt on this one occasion. If Canelo was on performance enhancing drugs I think it will show pretty clearly by the middle rounds of the fight; if Canelo was on drugs I see the most likely outcome for this fight being a dominant Golovkin performance en route to a mid to late round stoppage. But if Canelo was clean I think the most likely outcome is an even better performance from Canelo in tonight's fight than the previous fight, especially when you consider Golovkin's recent regression and Canelo's superior boxing skills.

Will Canelo get the benefit of favorable judging in this fight (as he did the previous fight)? The judging in the first fight clearly favored Canelo with some dubious scoring, including a 118-110 (10 rounds to 2) score from judge Adelaide Byrd that even Canelo and his promoter Oscar De La Hoya) disagreed with. (Both have stated they felt Canelo won "7 or 8" rounds.) Don Trella scored the 7th round, arguably Golovkin's best round in the fight, for Canelo which resulted in him scoring the fight a draw overall. (If he'd scored that round for Golovkin as the other two judges did Golovkin would've won the fight by majority decision.) With the significant postfight controversy surrounding the scoring (which resulted in Byrd being temporarily benched from judging by the Nevada Athletic Commission and removed from judging any major fights since) one has to wonder where the scoring bias is more likely to lie in tonight's fight. On the one hand, the judges scoring the fight might be sensitive to the previous controversy and feel pressure to be fair towards Golovkin to the extent that they give him the benefit of the doubt in close rounds and are actually biased in his favor. On the other hand, we could conceivably see a repeat of questionable judging in the more politically connected, "A-side" Canelo's favor - especially given that the crowd at T-Mobile in Las Vegas is expected to be pro-Canelo. It does seem Canelo has received very favorable scoring in most of his fights over the past few years, including a couple of controversial decision victories vs. Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout, as well as his loss to Mayweather where one judge scored the fight a draw (despite most observers seeing the fight as a wide decision victory for Mayweather). To be fair, Canelo - while generally deliberate and patient - has a judge-friendly style featuring showy, accurate, clean power punches that are easier for judges to score. (Canelo landed most of the flashy, "highlight" punches in the first fight with Golovkin.) 

How will Canelo's leaner physique affect the fight? In preparing for the rematch it appears Canelo has targeted a smaller, less muscular physique than he had in the first fight. One can surmise that he likely won't have as much punching power, thus will be less likely of a threat to hurt or knockout Golovkin in the rematch. But there is a good chance Canelo's leaner physique also results in improved mobility, elusiveness, and speed which could make his counterpunching more effective. The leaner physique may also result in improved stamina, which could be critical as Canelo's relative lack of work rate and energy in the middle rounds was one of the primary reasons he didn't get the decision victory in the first fight.

I thought Golovkin very clearly won the first fight (and was rooting for him to win that fight) but came away more impressed by how Canelo performed. I expected Golovkin to win by knockout but Canelo was able to elude Golovkin's power for most of the fight (never even coming close to being either knocked down or stopped, which has been the fate of every Golovkin opponent in recent years) and was able to consistently outbox Golovkin on the inside with savvy counterpunching. When Canelo tired in the middle rounds he was dominated, but when he had energy and was trading punches with Golovkin in the early and later rounds he arguably got the better of most of those exchanges. Canelo's counterpunching to the body in particular made a typically aggressive, punch-happy Golovkin more reluctant than usual to throw his own power punches.

While I thought Golovkin was clearly the more aggressive and effective puncher over the whole course of the first fight (which I thought won him the fight), I also came away from the fight with the impression that Canelo was clearly the more skilled boxer, with superior movement, speed, and counterpunching ability. For me, Canelo's draw with Golovkin was arguably as impressive as any fight that Canelo has actually won.

For these reasons, I think the best value on this fight is Canelo to win by decision at +200 or above.  All variables considered, I'd grade Golovkin at 55-60% to win tonight's fight but the fact is, Golovkin's effective pressure - including his ability to cut off the ring - has noticeably deteriorated in recent fights (including the first fight with Canelo). A year after that fight, I expect the ability of an aging, past-prime Golovkin to effectively pressure his opponent to further diminish. On the other side I see Canelo - who is still in his prime - making adjustments to mitigate Golovkin's pressure and counter even more effectively than he did in the previous fight. One key adjustment is the leaner physique; what Canelo may lose in punching power and strength from the less muscular frame he may gain in stamina, elusiveness, and the ability to be a more high-volume counterpuncher.

Canelo is a high IQ fighter who takes his craft very seriously and over the years seems to have improved with each fight. I think in front of a mostly pro-Canelo crowd in Las Vegas with something to prove after the drug accusations that have (rightly or wrongly) tarnished his reputation, there is a good chance he puts on perhaps the most impressive performance of his career and beats Golovkin in a competitive but clear decision victory. Note that it is typically the more skilled boxer who makes the necessary adjustments and has the better performance in a rematch; I see that being the case for tonight's fight. As hyped as Canelo is, I actually feel that in terms of pure boxing skill, he is actually still a somewhat underrated boxer who put on maybe the best performance in his career in getting the draw vs. Golovkin - a fight which I felt Canelo lost. I see him putting on an even better performance - perhaps vs. an overeager Golovkin trying too hard for the knockout - and getting the win tonight.

A victory by Canelo against Golovkin instantly puts him on the same level as recent Mexican legends like Juan Manuel Marquez, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Erik Morales; I think there's a decent chance we see it happen this Mexican Independence Day weekend.

I will be at the fight and am looking forward to seeing what happens!

Prediction: Golovkin to win

Recommended bet: Canelo by 12-round decision (.5 unit) 

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Santa Cruz vs. Frampton II: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Leo Santa Cruz (32-1-1, 18 KOs) vs. Carl Frampton (23-0, 14 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: January 28, 2017
Weight class: Featherweight (126 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Featherweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Santa Cruz +160, Frampton -170 (5 Dimes, 1/28/17)
Purse: Santa Cruz: $900,000, Frampton: $1 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Santa Cruz: #4 ranked featherweight, Frampton: #10 ranked pound-for-pound, #2 ranked featherweight
Style: Santa Cruz: Orthodox, Frampton: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

This is a very highly anticipated rematch of what was universally considered one of the top two or three fights of 2016 - a fight in which undefeated and recently-crowned 2016 Ring Magazine, ESPN, and Boxing Writers Association of America (BWAA) fighter of the year Carl Frampton outpointed 3-1 favorite Leo Santa Cruz in a closely-contested, majority decision thriller. The win earned Frampton the previously undefeated Santa Cruz's WBA featherweight title (after Frampton had unified the WBA and IBF super bantamweight titles earlier in the year in a split decision victory vs. then undefeated Scott Quigg) and made him the first foreign-born fighter in 13 attempts to win a world title vs. an American-born fighter on U.S. soil.

Like their previous fight, this fight should be another classic matchup of quantity vs. quality between two top-rated boxers in their prime - the at times electric, punch-per-second Santa Cruz vs. the better-skilled, more accurate punching Frampton.

Punch for punch, Santa Cruz may be the most exciting fighter in the sport (CompuBox statistics consistently rate him among the top one or two fighters in the sport in terms of both punches thrown and punches landed), but he lost a very close majority decision in front of what was a decidedly pro-Frampton crowd at Barclays Center in New York City. The rematch will take place in Las Vegas, Nevada - a location only a few hours from Santa Cruz's hometown of Los Angeles where Santa Cruz's Mexican-American and Mexican fans are expected to have a much stronger presence.

 Will the slicker, craftier Frampton outbox Santa Cruz again to retain his featherweight title (and retain his status as possibly the top featherweight in the world) or will Santa Cruz's punch output in front of what should be more home-friendly confines in Las Vegas carry the day in his attempt to avenge the first loss of his career?

Why Leo Santa Cruz will win

Despite getting outboxed in their first fight last July, Santa Cruz is only a little worse than a 3-2 underdog in this rematch vs. Frampton. The first fight was very close, despite the massive Irish and Irish-American pro-Frampton contingent that appeared to dominate the Madison Square Garden crowd. (I was in attendance for the fight and scored it a 114-114 draw, while one of the three judges also scored the fight a draw.)

In Las Vegas - only a four hour drive from his hometown of Los Angeles - Santa Cruz should expect much more friendly crowd support from his Mexican and Mexican-American fanbase, especially given that Santa Cruz is arguably the most popular and high profile active boxer from nearby Los Angeles. The change in venue from a pro-Frampton arena to likely a pro-Santa Cruz one has a good chance of energizing Santa Cruz's efforts inside the ring and possibly influencing the judges' scoring outside the ring in favor of Santa Cruz. (I do feel the first fight was closer than the 117-111 and 116-112 scores that two of the three judges provided and - from being at the fight and experiencing the energy of the crowd in person - feel that the judges could've been affected in part by the raucous crowd support Frampton enjoyed at Madison Square Garden.)

Santa Cruz is a come-forward pressure fighter who suffered the first loss of his professional career in last July's fight vs. Frampton. Santa Cruz typically wins by overwhelming his opponents with an accumulation of  of punches (often throwing over 100 punches a round) thrown from a wide array of angles.

Per CompuBox stats, Santa Cruz threw exactly 50% more punches than Frampton in their first fight - throwing more punches than Frampton in each round - and landing more punches overall. Despite this, Santa Cruz lost a close decision, largely because in trying to initially be patient and box Frampton his punch output in the first five rounds of the fight was nearly 40% less (67.8 punches thrown per round) than it was over the last seven rounds of the fight (94.7 punches thrown per round). Given Santa Cruz's notoriously excellent stamina and Frampton's tendency to fade a bit in later rounds, it was not surprising to see Santa Cruz increase his punch activity in the middle and later rounds of the fight and win most of the late rounds vs. Frampton. Santa Cruz has a much better idea of what to expect in this fight so if he is less cautious and can pick up his punch activity early he stands a good chance of winning some of the early rounds he lost in the last fight - especially in front of what should be a much friendlier crowd in Vegas.

Santa Cruz is the naturally bigger fighter with a 7" reach advantage. Though Frampton generally landed the more accurate, cleaner power punches in their last fight the punches - with the exception of a couple in the early rounds - didn't seem to affect the bigger Santa Cruz too much. Santa Cruz has only been knocked down once in his professional career and was seemingly never in danger of being knocked down or stopped in last year's fight vs. Frampton. If Santa Cruz can use his reach advantage and keep his punch activity high in the face of Frampton's superior power and counter punching abilities I see him both outthrowing and outlanding Frampton by a larger margin than he did in the last fight, which in my opinion would likely lead to a decision victory for Santa Cruz even if Frampton is more accurate and lands most of the cleaner shots as he did in the last fight.

Santa Cruz dealt with a significant life distraction in his last fight vs. Frampton as his father Jose Santa Cruz - who has also been his lead trainer for his entire professional career - was suffering from and being treated for stage 3 bone cancer during prefight preparations. This distraction no doubt led to stress and lack of focus in preparing for the first fight. (Even Frampton admitted that Santa Cruz's father's cancer diagnosis likely affected Santa Cruz's mindset going into the last fight.) With Santa Cruz's father's cancer now in remission and with Santa Cruz's father fully dedicated to training duties (Santa Cruz's older brother Antonio assumed most of the lead trainer duties while his father underwent cancer treatment), one should expect a more focused and energized Santa Cruz in the rematch.

Why Carl Frampton will win

Why could Carl Frampton beat Santa Cruz? Well he is still undefeated and just beat Santa Cruz in his last fight this past July. In that fight, Frampton did outbox Santa Cruz and showed he was the more skilled, accurate, crafty boxer with faster hand speed and - despite being the smaller fighter - arguably better punching power. (He certainly hurt Santa Cruz more than Santa Cruz hurt him in the first fight.)

Despite Santa Cruz throwing 50% more punches, Frampton landed almost as many punches (242 for Frampton vs. 255 for Santa Cruz) and landed at a much higher percentage than Santa Cruz (36.2% of punches landed for Frampton vs. only 25.4% of punches landed for Santa Cruz) while landing the cleaner, more powerful punches in the process. Frampton not only landed at a higher percentage than Santa Cruz overall, he landed at a higher percentage in each of the 12 rounds of the fight. So despite the fact that the last fight was (correctly) considered close and competitive, it was arguably a dominant performance by Frampton over Santa Cruz in terms of pure boxing ability given the disparity in percentage and quality of punches landed. There's little reason to believe the technically superior Frampton won't again use his very good timing and accuracy to exploit Santa Cruz's often over-aggressive and sometimes sloppy pressure style with well-timed jabs and power punching as he did in the last fight.

Frampton appears to be the more intelligent, versatile boxer so appears to be the boxer who is more likely to make the proper adjustments from the previous fight. (Technically superior boxers generally fare better vs. less skilled fighters in rematches.) Frampton boxes much better on the move than Santa Cruz which - combined with his solid, stiff jab - should allow him to control distance vs. Santa Cruz despite Santa Cruz's 7" reach advantage.

Frampton's first fight vs. Santa Cruz took place in New York City in front of a pro-Frampton crowd littered with Irish and Irish-American supporters. Tonight's fight will be in Las Vegas - closer to Santa Cruz's hometown of Los Angeles - so Frampton likely won't enjoy the raucous support he enjoyed in New York City. But boxing fans from the United Kingdom are known for traveling extremely well; there will for sure be a huge, enthusiastic contingent of Irish traveling from overseas for the fight so while Santa Cruz will probably enjoy at least a slight advantage in crowd support, significant - and possibly louder - portions of the crowd will be pulling for Frampton. (So the Las Vegas location may not being as home-friendly for Santa Cruz as it may seem from the surface.)

Frampton is the more skilled boxer (arguably more skilled by a wide margin judging from the last fight) with advantages in accuracy, power, and speed and just beat Santa Cruz in their first fight only a few months ago; it will be difficuly for Santa Cruz to overcome all of these advantages to pull off the upset.

Prefight Analysis

I give Frampton a slight 55/45 edge in this rematch and think he *probably* beats Santa Cruz again. Despite the fact that I actually scored their first fight a draw, I thought Frampton clearly showed he was the better fighter by landing punches at a significantly higher percentage (including landing at a higher percentage in every single round of the fight) and landing the vast majority of the cleaner, more powerful punches. The fact that Frampton landed almost as many punches as Santa Cruz was impressive given that Santa Cruz threw 50% more punches in the fight. Frampton was the more accurate, crafty fighter; his slick foot movement and counterpunching skills were generally very effective vs. Santa Cruz's high-volume, hyper-aggressive punch output.

As the superior boxer, one would expect Frampton to do more of the same in tonight's fight. Frampton is a naturally reactive boxer who reads his opponents very well - after having already fought (and outboxed) Santa Cruz previously one would expect he'd be the fighter more apt to make the necessary adjustments to beat Santa Cruz even more decisively in a rematch.

Style-wise, I think Frampton holds so many advantages over Santa Cruz (skill, speed, accuracy, boxing IQ, power) that you have to grade him as at least a slight favorite to win the rematch.

But in terms of betting on the fight I actually feel the most value here is in betting on Santa Cruz to win by decision (currently at approximately 2.8-1 odds). The 2.8-1 odds on Santa Cruz to win by decision is theoretically a profitable bet if you think Santa Cruz wins by decision at least 26.5% of the time; I grade Santa Cruz's chances of winning by decision at closer to 40-45%, making this bet - at least in my estimation - a very solid value bet.

Despite Frampton mostly outboxing Santa Cruz in their first fight in landing the cleaner punches at a higher percentage, Santa Cruz did decisively outwork Frampton with his punch output - throwing more punches than Frampton in every round - and came on the latter part of the fight to win most of the late rounds. Despite Frampton's impressive boxing display vs. Santa Cruz's high-volume effort, the first fight was still a very close and competitive fight to the point where one of the judges scored the fight a draw. (I was at the fight and also scored the fight a draw and would even have been okay with a close decision to Santa Cruz given his success outworking and landing clean punches on Frampton in the later rounds.) If Santa Cruz gets off to a better start in the early rounds of tonight's fight (which I think stands a pretty good chance of happening - Santa Cruz can afford to risk being less cautious early as the smaller Frampton did not show a consistent ability to hurt him), I think the conditions of the fight are set up well for Santa Cruz to continue on and pull off the upset.

While Frampton will have his share of loud and enthusiastic fans in Las Vegas, the pro-Frampton crowd support for this fight - which I believe played at least a small role in how the fight was scored by a couple of the judges - won't be near what it was in New York City for the first fight.  And in tonight's fight, I see Santa Cruz being more focused and energized than in the last fight given that his father - who was undergoing cancer treatment during preparations for the last fight - is healthy again and has resumed full lead trainer duties for this fight.

While I think Frampton probably wins this fight - given the conditions of the near-west coast location (which should favor Santa Cruz), a likely more prepared and energized Santa Cruz, and Santa Cruz's ability to outwork and outpunch his opponent even when getting outboxed, Santa Cruz by decision at 2.8-1 odds appears to be the best bet in terms of value.

Either way let's hope this fight is at least half as entertaining as the last one!

Prediction: Frampton to win

Recommended bet: Santa Cruz by 12 round decision (1 unit)

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