Canelo vs. Rocky Fielding: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (50-1-2 34 KOs) vs. Rocky Fielding (27-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 15, 2018
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBA (Regular) World Super middleweight title
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line: Alvarez: -1600, Fielding: +1050 (5 Dimes, 12/14/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #3 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion [Alvarez is not ranked at super middleweight], Fielding: #9 ranked super middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Fielding: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

On American soil, Canelo Alvarez is (by far) the top PPV attraction in boxing today, with his last three fights over the past year and a half - his two most recent vs. Gennady Golovkin and another in May 2017 vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. - each selling over 1 million PPV buys. (Canelo's fights vs. Golovkin and Chavez Jr. had the highest PPV buy rates for boxing matches not involving Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson in 2002.)

But this past October, Canelo (supported by his promoter - the Oscar De La Hoya-backed Golden Boy Promotions) exited the traditional PPV model - which reportedly earned him well over $20 million for each of the aforementioned fights - to sign a 5-year, 11-fight contract worth at least $365 million with sports streaming service DAZN, the largest contract for a single athlete in sports history. Canelo's fight this Saturday vs. WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding will be Canelo's first fight since signing that contract and will be the first PPV-level fight DAZN has ever produced in the United States.

Right now, Canelo is on top of the boxing world. He's arguably the most popular fighter in the sport. He's coming off of the most high profile, biggest fight of the year and what was by far the biggest win of his career in his majority decision upset victory over at-the-time undefeated and Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound-ranked unified middleweight champion Golovkin - a fight in which Canelo secured his status as a Mexican boxing legend and future first ballot hall-of-famer. Although the scoring of the fight was highly controversial - most observers felt the fight was either a draw or that Canelo lost a close decision - Canelo's impressive performance largely cooled previous rampant suspicions of illegal performance-enhancing drug use by the Mexican fighter as he tested clean numerous times in the days and weeks leading up to the fight.

At just 28 years old, Canelo is still in the middle of his prime and has arguably still not yet even reached his peak as - including even both fights vs. Golovkin -  Canelo has improved with each fight since his lone loss in 2013 to Floyd Mayweather Jr. and is still seemingly getting better. Canelo is currently the Ring Magazine #3 ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world but on Saturday night will make his claim as #1 as he moves up to super middleweight to fight at 168 lbs for the first time in his career in an attempt to become the fifth Mexican fighter win a major world title in at least 3 weight divisions (Julio Cesar Chavez Sr., Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Jorge Arce).

Canelo will be making his debut on DAZN this Saturday night at Madison Square Garden vs. current WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding. Rocky is a British fighter who will be making his first defense of his super middleweight title after upsetting formerly undefeated champion Tyron Zeuge by 5th-round TKO in Zeuge's home country of Germany this past July. (Rocky entered the fight vs. Zeuge at as high as a 5-1 underdog.)

Rocky lacks experience, having not fought many top-level boxers other than Callum Smith - who he lost to in 2015 by 1st-round TKO. But since the loss to Smith - the only loss of his career - Rocky has been on a 3-year, 6-fight winning streak which included the title win over Zeuge and a win over well-respected British fighter John Ryder. Rocky, who has fought multiple times in his career as high as light heavyweight (178 lbs), has a 4.5" reach advantage over Canelo and is also expected to come into Saturday night's fight with a considerable size advantage.

Canelo vs. Rocky will be Canelo's first fight in New York City (and on the entire East Coast after several fights in the U.S. in Las Vegas, Texas, and Los Angeles) and will be Rocky's first fight outside of Europe (and only his second fight outside of his home country of England).

It's worth noting that Saturday night's fight is for the WBA "Regular" super middleweight championship. The WBA "Super" super middleweight championship is currently held by Callum Smith (who - as noted above - beat Fielding in 2015 by 1st-round TKO). Smith beat George Groves (by 7th-round KO) this past September in the World Boxing Super Series final to win the "Super" version of the WBA super middleweight championship.

Prefight Analysis

As an overwhelming (1-16) favorite who just two months ago signed the richest contract in the history of sports, it should be no surprise that I'm going with Canelo to win Saturday night's fight (and win convincingly).

But Rocky could make this fight tougher than expected. As a natural super middleweight who's even spent some of his career as a light heavyweight, Rocky will come into this fight with an advantage in size combined with respectable enough power to make things tough for Canelo, particularly in the early rounds. (With a 52% TKO/KO percentage, Rocky has knocked out most of the opponents he's faced - all of whom were bigger than Canelo in terms of size.) Rocky has above average combination punching skills and won't be afraid to trade punches with a smaller Canelo. For a super middleweight, Rocky moves well and has the ability to box while backing up, which should open up counterpunching opportunities when Canelo comes forward. Rocky will also come into Saturday's fight with a significant (4.5") reach advantage which - if combined with effective enough movement - could stymie Canelo's aggression.

Note that this is the 3rd consecutive week where the underdog in a high-profile fight will come into the ring with a size, height (Rocky is listed at 6'1" compared to Canelo at 5'8"), and reach advantage, complimented with an ability to move well. (Jose Pedraza last week vs. Vasyl Lomachenko and Tyson Fury the week before that vs. Deontay Wilder.) These qualities enabled the underdog in each of these fights to go the 12-round distance despite a loss by knockout being regarded as the most likely outcome.

Although limited athletically, Rocky has a versatile skill set and the fact is he did just a few months ago beat a heavily favored, undefeated world champion in that champion's home country to win his first title. Saturday night will be (by far) the biggest fight of Rocky's career and possibly even the most important night of his whole life - there is little question he will come to fight and lay it all on the line. Last year, Canelo looked impressive at a 164.5 lb cachet in winning a wide unanimous decision victory vs. a more talented fighter than Rocky in Chavez Jr. (none of the three judges even gave Chavez Jr. a single round). But Rocky is a bigger, tougher, more aggressive fighter than Chavez Jr. and will almost certainly put forth a greater effort than Chavez Jr. did. It shouldn't be much of a surprise at all if Rocky's size and reach in particular pose a much bigger problem than Canelo - who has fought as small as 140 lbs (super lightweight) early on in his career - ever anticipated.

But at the end of the day, Rocky I think lacks the athleticism and knockout power of elite super middleweights like Callum Smith and Gilberto Ramirez to compete with Canelo over 12 rounds. There's too much of a skill and hand speed discrepancy here - Rocky is the bigger fighter but I see Canelo wearing Rocky down and picking him apart with quick, accurate punch combinations in a similar fashion to how he picked apart Chavez Jr., who was bigger and had a better chin than Rocky. Rocky will throw more punches than Chavez Jr. did, but I only see that making Rocky - who has a habit of keeping his hands down after throwing punch combinations - even more susceptible to clean counterpunching.

Although only 28 years old, Canelo has the advantage of a wealth of experience vs. elite opponents and has fought against just about every style of fighter possible. Rocky is versatile, but is a straightforward,  British domestic-level boxer lacking the elite-level skills of fighters like Erislandy Lara, Mayweather, and Golovkin that have given Canelo problems in previous fights.

Rocky doesn't have anything that Canelo hasn't already seen; his size, reach, and movement could be a challenge for Canelo in the early rounds but his lack of athleticism, speed, and real knockout power should make it not too difficult for Canelo to adjust and figure out the timing of the British champion both offensively and defensively.

I see Canelo being somewhat cautious and patient early vs. a bigger super middleweight, but like him to either stop Rocky in the later rounds or win a wide unanimous decision. While I think a stoppage might be slightly more likely, I think both outcomes have a similar chance of occurring so will be placing an equal stake on each outcome. I will be attending this fight and looking forward to the action and seeing in person how well DAZN does with their first big fight in the United States!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Canelo by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 (.5 unit) 
2) Canelo by unanimous decision (.5 unit) 

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Canelo vs. Golovkin II: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (49-1-2 34 KOs) vs. Gennady Golovkin (38-0-1, 34 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 15, 2018
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World middleweight and WBA Super World middleweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez: +140, Golovkin: -150 (5 Dimes, 9/15/18)
Purse: Alvarez: $5 million, Golovkin: $5 million  (guaranteed money only - both fighters stand to make substantially more based on a 55% Canelo/45% Golovkin split of PPV revenues, ticket sales, etc.)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: Not ranked (due to PED suspension), Golovkin: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Golovkin: Orthodox
Referee: Benjy Estevez

Why you should watch this fight

Because this is (by far) the most anticipated fight of the year - a surefire action-packed matchup between probably the two best middleweights in the world who also happen to be two of the best fighters in the world pound-for-pound.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin is the long-awaited rematch of a fantastic fight last year that ended in a (very) controversial draw. Most (including me, who scored the fight 8 rounds to 4 for Golovkin) felt Golovkin clearly won the fight. Earlier this year, a rematch of last year's fight was agreed to and scheduled to take place in May, but was ultimately cancelled and rescheduled for tonight due to Canelo's two failed tests for the performance-enhancing drug clenbuterol, which resulted in Canelo receiving a 6-month suspension from the Nevada Athletic Commission. (The suspension was effective beginning in February and just ended last month.)

Canelo's failed drug tests (and resulting suspension) has somewhat diminished the popularity of the wildly popular Mexican boxer - even amongst his own countrymen. The controversy surrounding the failed tests also generated significant (and very genuine) tension and dislike between Canelo and Golovkin, who were previously on relatively friendly terms. Still, Canelo is easily the top PPV attraction in boxing; despite lack of heavy promotion, last year's Canelo vs. Golovkin fight sold 1.3 million buys - the most PPV buys for a boxing match not involving Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson in 2002. (Tonight's fight is widely expected to exceed the 1.3 million buys from last year's fight.) Canelo is still in the middle of his prime - with elite boxing skills to match his popularity - and still only has one loss on his record (to the undefeated and now retired Mayweather).

Canelo will be facing an aging, but still deadly Golovkin who - at 36 years old - is still arguably the best knockout artist in boxing, having just come off a 2nd-round KO victory vs. Vanes Martirosyan in his last fight this past May. Golovkin is actually the #1-ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world by Ring Magazine and has won 34 out of his 39 fights - including 24 out of his last 26 fights - by stoppage for a KO% of 87%, the highest KO% in middleweight boxing history. 

The winner of this fight will have earned what will be the most significant win of their career (a win that will likely be considered the signature win of their career years from now upon retirement) and will have a solid claim as the best fighter in the world pound-for-pound. For Golovkin this would be the best win of an already hall-of-fame career and move him further up the list of the greatest middleweights of all time. If he retires tomorrow, Canelo is already a probable hall-of-famer but a win this Saturday over an undefeated Golovkin would secure his status as a Mexican legend. A win for Canelo would also go along way towards regaining respect from the numerous boxing fans who question whether his career has been unfairly bolstered by performance-enhancing drugs (given his recent failed drug tests).

The winner of this fight could possibly be in line for a unification megafight next year with undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders, who is defending his title next month in Boston vs. undefeated - and highly regarded - middleweight Demetrius Andrade.

Prefight Analysis

Last year, I picked Golovkin to win the first fight and - as many observers did - thought he won convincingly. Although Golovkin didn't knock Canelo out as I expected, I thought he was certainly the more effective aggressor; per CompuBox stats he threw and landed more punches in 10 out of 12 rounds of the fight, maintained consistent pressure behind his jab, and dominated the middle rounds when Canelo tired after a solid start in the first 3 rounds.

It would be very reasonable to think not much will change for the rematch tonight. I still think Canelo is the better-skilled boxer (as he was last year in their first fight) but the rematch - as with the first fight - still likely features a mismatch in effective power and pressure that will be difficult for Canelo to overcome. It's hard to imagine that the bigger, physically stronger, superior (and perhaps historically great) power puncher in Golovkin won't still be effective in pressuring a smaller, relatively low-volume, flat-footed fighter in Canelo despite Canelo's ring intelligence, deceptive elusiveness, and superior skill. One also needs to consider that the stamina problems that plagued Canelo in the middle rounds of his first fight with Golovkin (and have plagued him in the middle to late rounds of numerous prior fights to the extent that he often takes portions of rounds off to conserve energy) likely won't just go away for this fight - at least to some extent we should expect Canelo's notorious issues with stamina to manifest again vs. a constantly pressuring Golovkin.

Also consider that ring rust and diminished mobility may possibly be factors in tonight's rematch. Canelo has been inactive for a year - the longest layoff of his 12-year career - and is coming off a knee surgery in April for which he is still wearing a knee brace. 

Golovkin is correctly graded as the favorite for the rematch. But the more I think about this fight, the more I think Canelo has a very real shot here for the upset. In general for rematches, we at least somewhat know what to expect relative to fights where fighters are facing each other for the first time. But this particular rematch is a bit different as there are numerous unknown variables and unanswered questions to consider, including:

 How much has Golovkin regressed since his previous fight with Canelo? At 36 years old, Golovkin is past his prime and has shown in some recent fights - including his last fight vs. Canelo and his fight last year vs. Danny Jacobs - that he doesn't cut off the ring and pressure nearly as well as he did in his prime. In his last fight, Golovkin made quick work of Vanes Martirosyan, winning by KO in the 2nd round. But Martirosyan was a lesser-caliber opponent who was fighting on only a few weeks notice for the first time at middleweight after a two-year layoff. Canelo, on the other hand, is still in the middle of his prime and has noticeably improved with each fight since his 2013 loss to Mayweather. Canelo handled Golovkin's pressure much better than expected in their first fight; the most likely scenario would be that Canelo has an even better performance vs. a slower, aging Golovkin one year later.

Was Canelo on performance enhancing drugs for the previous fight? Canelo failed two drug tests leading up to the previously scheduled rematch date in May, testing positive for the performance enhancing drug clenbuterol. He has vehemently denied accusations of drug use, blaming the failed drug tests on tainted meat. Like most I'm highly skeptical of this denial but lean towards giving him the benefit of the doubt on this one occasion. If Canelo was on performance enhancing drugs I think it will show pretty clearly by the middle rounds of the fight; if Canelo was on drugs I see the most likely outcome for this fight being a dominant Golovkin performance en route to a mid to late round stoppage. But if Canelo was clean I think the most likely outcome is an even better performance from Canelo in tonight's fight than the previous fight, especially when you consider Golovkin's recent regression and Canelo's superior boxing skills.

Will Canelo get the benefit of favorable judging in this fight (as he did the previous fight)? The judging in the first fight clearly favored Canelo with some dubious scoring, including a 118-110 (10 rounds to 2) score from judge Adelaide Byrd that even Canelo and his promoter Oscar De La Hoya) disagreed with. (Both have stated they felt Canelo won "7 or 8" rounds.) Don Trella scored the 7th round, arguably Golovkin's best round in the fight, for Canelo which resulted in him scoring the fight a draw overall. (If he'd scored that round for Golovkin as the other two judges did Golovkin would've won the fight by majority decision.) With the significant postfight controversy surrounding the scoring (which resulted in Byrd being temporarily benched from judging by the Nevada Athletic Commission and removed from judging any major fights since) one has to wonder where the scoring bias is more likely to lie in tonight's fight. On the one hand, the judges scoring the fight might be sensitive to the previous controversy and feel pressure to be fair towards Golovkin to the extent that they give him the benefit of the doubt in close rounds and are actually biased in his favor. On the other hand, we could conceivably see a repeat of questionable judging in the more politically connected, "A-side" Canelo's favor - especially given that the crowd at T-Mobile in Las Vegas is expected to be pro-Canelo. It does seem Canelo has received very favorable scoring in most of his fights over the past few years, including a couple of controversial decision victories vs. Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout, as well as his loss to Mayweather where one judge scored the fight a draw (despite most observers seeing the fight as a wide decision victory for Mayweather). To be fair, Canelo - while generally deliberate and patient - has a judge-friendly style featuring showy, accurate, clean power punches that are easier for judges to score. (Canelo landed most of the flashy, "highlight" punches in the first fight with Golovkin.) 

How will Canelo's leaner physique affect the fight? In preparing for the rematch it appears Canelo has targeted a smaller, less muscular physique than he had in the first fight. One can surmise that he likely won't have as much punching power, thus will be less likely of a threat to hurt or knockout Golovkin in the rematch. But there is a good chance Canelo's leaner physique also results in improved mobility, elusiveness, and speed which could make his counterpunching more effective. The leaner physique may also result in improved stamina, which could be critical as Canelo's relative lack of work rate and energy in the middle rounds was one of the primary reasons he didn't get the decision victory in the first fight.

I thought Golovkin very clearly won the first fight (and was rooting for him to win that fight) but came away more impressed by how Canelo performed. I expected Golovkin to win by knockout but Canelo was able to elude Golovkin's power for most of the fight (never even coming close to being either knocked down or stopped, which has been the fate of every Golovkin opponent in recent years) and was able to consistently outbox Golovkin on the inside with savvy counterpunching. When Canelo tired in the middle rounds he was dominated, but when he had energy and was trading punches with Golovkin in the early and later rounds he arguably got the better of most of those exchanges. Canelo's counterpunching to the body in particular made a typically aggressive, punch-happy Golovkin more reluctant than usual to throw his own power punches.

While I thought Golovkin was clearly the more aggressive and effective puncher over the whole course of the first fight (which I thought won him the fight), I also came away from the fight with the impression that Canelo was clearly the more skilled boxer, with superior movement, speed, and counterpunching ability. For me, Canelo's draw with Golovkin was arguably as impressive as any fight that Canelo has actually won.

For these reasons, I think the best value on this fight is Canelo to win by decision at +200 or above.  All variables considered, I'd grade Golovkin at 55-60% to win tonight's fight but the fact is, Golovkin's effective pressure - including his ability to cut off the ring - has noticeably deteriorated in recent fights (including the first fight with Canelo). A year after that fight, I expect the ability of an aging, past-prime Golovkin to effectively pressure his opponent to further diminish. On the other side I see Canelo - who is still in his prime - making adjustments to mitigate Golovkin's pressure and counter even more effectively than he did in the previous fight. One key adjustment is the leaner physique; what Canelo may lose in punching power and strength from the less muscular frame he may gain in stamina, elusiveness, and the ability to be a more high-volume counterpuncher.

Canelo is a high IQ fighter who takes his craft very seriously and over the years seems to have improved with each fight. I think in front of a mostly pro-Canelo crowd in Las Vegas with something to prove after the drug accusations that have (rightly or wrongly) tarnished his reputation, there is a good chance he puts on perhaps the most impressive performance of his career and beats Golovkin in a competitive but clear decision victory. Note that it is typically the more skilled boxer who makes the necessary adjustments and has the better performance in a rematch; I see that being the case for tonight's fight. As hyped as Canelo is, I actually feel that in terms of pure boxing skill, he is actually still a somewhat underrated boxer who put on maybe the best performance in his career in getting the draw vs. Golovkin - a fight which I felt Canelo lost. I see him putting on an even better performance - perhaps vs. an overeager Golovkin trying too hard for the knockout - and getting the win tonight.

A victory by Canelo against Golovkin instantly puts him on the same level as recent Mexican legends like Juan Manuel Marquez, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Erik Morales; I think there's a decent chance we see it happen this Mexican Independence Day weekend.

I will be at the fight and am looking forward to seeing what happens!

Prediction: Golovkin to win

Recommended bet: Canelo by 12-round decision (.5 unit) 

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David Lemieux vs. Billy Joe Saunders: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: David Lemieux (38-3, 33 KOs) vs. Billy Joe Saunders (25-0, 12 KOs)
Location: Place Bell, Laval, Quebec, Canada
Date: December 16, 2017
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO World middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Lemieux -115, Saunders -105 (5 Dimes, 12/15/17)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Lemieux: #3 ranked middleweight, Saunders: #4 ranked middleweight
Style: Lemieux: Orthodox, Saunders: Southpaw
Referee: Michael Griffin

Why you should watch this fight

In a middleweight division loaded with talent, Billy Joe Saunders is an undefeated world title holder (WBO) who is arguably the third best middleweight on the planet behind boxing superstars Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin.

Saunders is a tough and very talented technician who has beaten everyone put in front of him,  including highly regarded World Boxing Super Series super middleweight favorite and - at the time undefeated - Chris Eubank Jr. But Saunders will be fighting outside the the friendly confines of his home country (the United Kingdom) for the first time in his professional career Saturday night when he travels to Canada to face one of the most dangerous power punchers in the sport in David Lemieux on Lemieux's home turf in Montreal. Lemieux is a highly aggressive, explosive puncher with power in both hands and an impressive 80.5% KO ratio over 41 professional fights; his only loss in the past seven years was to current Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #1-ranked fighter Golovkin.

A win for Lemieux tomorrow night would be by far the most impressive of his career (would in fact be his first win vs. a top-level opponent) and would firmly establish him as one of the top four or five middleweights in the world. The winner of this fight is probably the most likely to face the winner of next May's Canelo vs. Golovkin rematch later in 2018 for a middleweight unification bout that could result in the first undisputed middleweight champion in boxing since Jermain Taylor in 2006.

With the exception of a few, fighters from the United Kingdom have typically not fared well in title fights overseas in hostile environments vs. world-class opposition. A win for Saunders tomorrow night vs. Lemieux would actually be one of the more impressive wins for a UK fighter outside the UK in recent years. 

Prefight Analysis

As the odds suggest, Lemieux vs. Saunders is a true "50/50" fight that could go either way. Extremely difficult to predict the winner here.

What you have to like about Saunders is that he is likely the better pure boxer/technician in this matchup, with his high ring intelligence and superior boxing skills. Unlike Lemieux, Saunders has also never lost a fight in his professional career. Whenever Saunders has faced a tough, top-level opponent (vs. Eubank Jr., Andy Lee, or even his most recent fight vs. a solid Willie Monroe Jr. - all of whom are arguably on the same level as, if not even slightly better than Lemieux) he's emerged from the fight victorious. Lemieux, on the other hand, has never beaten a fighter near the caliber of Saunders and has actually already lost twice in his hometown of Montreal to fighters with less skill than Saunders. (Lemieux's first loss was to a fighter in Joachim Alcine who proceeded to lose his next five fights after beating Lemieux.)

Although Saunders doesn't have Lemieux's power, he strikes me as both mentally and physically tougher than Lemieux - a toughness I think that is the result of his blue collar, Gypsy upbringing where he'd been fighting in bare-knuckle competitions when he was only five years old. Saunders has a tight, effective defense (opponents land only 18% of total punches and 23.6% of power punches vs. Saunders) and has never been knocked out or knocked down in his professional career. (Lemieux, on the other hand, has been stopped twice.) I think Saunders' superior boxing skill (in particular his solid jab which I expect to be very effective in managing distance vs. Lemieux), as well as his oft-overlooked mental toughness and grit may be too much for Lemieux to over come - even in Montreal.

With all that said, I'm not at all comfortable betting on Saunders to win this fight - even at nearly even money odds - as Lemieux does have several advantages in this matchup. This fight is essentially in Lemieux's hometown (Laval, Quebec - a suburb of Montreal) and - although Saunders is technically the "A" side fighter in this matchup - Lemieux's promoter Golden Boy is the more high profile, lead promoter for Saturday night's boxing card. I strongly suspect the home crowd atmosphere combined with the backing of Golden Boy Promotions may create a scoring bias in favor of Lemieux - as it arguably did  this past May for Golden Boy-backed Canelo in his controversial draw vs. Golovkin, a fight which many felt he clearly lost. Again, this will be the first time in Saunders' professional career that he's fought outside of the United Kingdom, so it's tough to predict how well he'll fare fighting in a hostile environment.

Although Saunders may have slightly faster hand speed, Lemieux is the superior athlete with much greater punching power. Saunders has never in his career faced a fighter with Lemieux's combination of power and punch volume and could end up getting overwhelmed by Lemieux's effective aggression - especially in the later rounds where Saunders is known to gas out on occasion. And though Lemieux has lost earlier in his career - as an inexperienced 22-year old - to lesser opponents than Saunders, he's gained experience and improved a bit since those losses; since losing two consecutive fights in 2011, Lemieux has lost only one other fight - to a fighter in Golovkin many consider the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world and one of the great middleweights of all time. Saunders, on the other hand, hasn't looked particularly impressive in recent fights, causing some to speculate whether he's already past his peak as a top-level fighter.

Lemieux vs. Saunders is a "toss-up" fight in the truest sense of the word. Despite Lemieux's power advantage inside the ring and advantage in some key intangibles outside of the ring (home crowd, high-profile promoter), I still slightly favor Saunders' superior boxing skills, defense, and mental toughness to prevail vs. Lemieux. Just not enough to bet on it.

I do, however, believe Saunders - with his slick defensive abilities and solid chin (a chin which has never hit the canvas in his professional career) - is highly likely to get through the full 12 rounds with Lemieux, win or lose. Note that 2 of Lemieux's last 3 fights within the past 14 months - both vs. lesser-skilled opponents than Saunders - went the full distance with Lemieux failing to score even one knockdown in either fight. Note also that Lemieux - who, like Saunders, has a history of stamina issues - has only one of his 33 TKO/KO victories past the 7th round; in other words, if Lemieux doesn't stop his opponent in the early or middle rounds, he's usually not stopping them late.

With Saunders not being much of a puncher himself (only two wins by TKO/KO in the past five years and a career TKO/KO% of only 48%), I think that the best value on this fight is to bet that the fight goes the full 12 rounds - a bet that is currently available at around -150 odds.

As far as the outcome, it's hard to predict even what kind of fight will break out Saturday night. A high-volume war likely favors Lemieux, while a slower-paced, more tactical fight likely favors Saunders. Bur either way it's an intriguing matchup and tough test that puts a lot at stake for both fighters.

Prediction: Saunders by decision

Recommended bet: Lemieux/Saunders goes full 12 rounds (.5 unit)

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Canelo vs. Golovkin: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (49-1-1 34 KOs) vs. Gennady Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 16, 2017
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World middleweight, WBA Super World middleweight, and IBF World middleweight titles (Canelo has opted not to accept the WBC belt if he wins so that title will become vacant if Canelo wins the fight.)
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez: +140, Golvkin: -150 (5 Dimes, 9/16/17)
Purse: Alvarez: $5 million, Golovkin: $3 million  (guaranteed money only - both fighters stand to make substantially more based on their share of PPV revenues, ticket sales, etc.)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #8 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Golovkin: #2 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Golovkin: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

Thus far, 2017 has been an outstanding year for boxing featuring quite a few thrilling fights and long-awaited matchups between high-profile boxers. But tonight's fight between Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin is probably the most long-awaited, highly anticipated matchup of them all. Tonight will be a matchup between two of the biggest names in boxing - both of whom are ranked in Ring Magazine pound-for-pound top 10 and are arguably the two best middleweights in the sport.

With Floyd Mayweather's retirement, Canelo is unquestionably the top PPV attraction in boxing right now - he's a wildly popular boxer (particularly in his home country of Mexico, where he attracts Superbowl-like ratings every time he fights) in the prime of his career with elite skills to match his popularity. The only loss on Canelo's record is to undefeated pound-for-pound legend Mayweather, but Canelo seems to have noticeably improved after each fight since that loss with seven consecutive wins, six of which came against current or former world champions.

But, including the Mayweather fight, Canelo is now faced with what may be the toughest fight of his career in Golovkin. Gennady Golovkin, the #2 pound-for-pound ranked boxer in the world by Ring Magazine, is the undefeated WBA, WBC, and IBF middleweight champion of the world and has won 33 out of his 37 professional fights - including 23 out of his last 24 fights - by stoppage for a KO% of 89%, the highest KO% in middleweight boxing history. Golovkin looked vulnerable in his last fight - a closely-contested unanimous decision victory vs. Danny Jacobs last March (a fight which many felt he lost) - but Golovkin is still considered the most feared man in boxing. With the exception of his most recent fight vs. Jacobs, every fight scheduled for longer than 8 rounds in Golovkin's professional career (10 or 12 rounds) has ended in stoppage. Tonight will actually be Golovkin's first ever fight as a pro in Las Vegas.

On the heels of the much-hyped, entertaining, but (arguably) farcical Mayweather vs. McGregor boxing exhibition a few weeks ago, Canelo vs. Golovkin is what many would consider to be the real fight hardcore and casual boxing fans alike have been waiting for all year. Both Canelo and Golovkin are aggressive, stalking power punchers who prefer to fight from close range so this fight is virtually guaranteed to be an action-packed, intense matchup that likely won't last the full 12 rounds.

The winner of this fight will have earned by far the most significant win of their career (a win that will likely be the signature win of their career years from now upon retirement) and will have legitimate claim to be considered the #1 boxer in the sport pound-for-pound. The winner of this fight will also be the holder of at least two major middleweight title belts (Canelo has refused to accept the WBC middleweight title if he wins on Saturday night due to the WBC essentially forcing him to vacate middleweight title last year after failed negotiations with Golovkin, the mandatory challenger for the WBC title at the time) which sets up a possible unification megafight next year with undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders.

Already noted as one of the better middleweights in boxing history, Golovkin could retire tomorrow and likely be a boxing Hall of Fame inductee. Canelo perhaps isn't quite Hall-of-Fame level yet but a win over Golovkin Saturday night would make him an instant Mexican boxing legend (if he isn't already) and secure his status as a future Hall of Famer.

Why Canelo Alvarez will win

Canelo comes into this fight as a slight (+140) underdog but - like Golovkin - is widely considered one of the best boxers in the sport pound-for-pound. Canelo is ranked the #8 boxer in the world pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine and has been considered by the publication to be the true middleweight champion of the world since November 2015, when he beat Miguel Cotto by unanimous decision. Canelo doesn't currently hold any major world titles, but has previously held major titles in two weight divisions (light middleweight and middleweight), including being a former unified light middleweight champion  as well as being the lineal and WBC middleweight champion in recent years before (voluntarily) vacating the titles.

Canelo is a patient, but accurate and highly efficient puncher who has developed into arguably the best aggressive counterpuncher in the sport. Canelo is a technically savvy, A-level boxer with very good to great power in both hands. He throws multi-punch combinations as well as anyone in the sport (especially in terms of variation combined with power, accuracy, and deceptive hand speed) and is an excellent, committed body puncher. (Canelo's best punches are his left hook to the body and right uppercut, which have resulted in multiple TKO/KO victories in his most recent fights.)

Canelo is considered by most observers (including myself) to be the better pure boxer in this matchup. He is the higher IQ boxer, has advantages in hand and foot speed, and is the fighter more adept at making adjustments over the course of the fight. Canelo has only fought above 155 lbs twice in his career but has bulked up (in terms of muscle mass) significantly and will likely come into this fight with a size advantage vs. Golovkin, who has fought his entire professional career at or around 160 lbs.

In previous fights, Canelo has primarily had issues with slick fighters who move well and box mostly from distance (see his loss to Mayweather and his close, competitive fights vs. Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout). He certainly won't be up against this style of opponent on Saturday; a stalking pressure fighter who will be right in front of him the entire night. Canelo has superior inside fighting skills to Golovkin, and - in multiple recent fights - has shown that he is highly adept at counter punching effectively under pressure from close range with accurate, clean power punches. One should not be at all surprised if Canelo, unlike any previous Golovkin opponent, is able to outbox Golovkin on the inside with his back against the ropes - especially given that Golovkin's come-forward, pressuring style does provide ample clean counter punching opportunities.  I expect Canelo's superior hand speed and accurate power to be effective in spots here - even against a fighter with a seemingly impenetrable chin in Golovkin.

Although no defensive wizard, Canelo is also perhaps the more defensively skilled fighter compared to Golovkin. Canelo's upper body defensive movement in particular has noticeably improved in recent years, which should serve him well defending from close range vs. Golovkin. Canelo has also shown a solid chin over the course of his career; he's never been stopped or even knocked down in any of his fights as a pro. While not bad defensively, Golovkin's defense often times is mostly his offense; in executing his pressure attack he at times gets careless in terms of leaving his hands down and leaving himself open to clean counter punching after throwing punches. Canelo almost certainly will have some success exploiting Golovkin's defensive flaws.

Canelo is still a relatively young fighter still in the prime of his career and has shown noticeable improvement in most of his fights since his first Las Vegas fight several years ago vs. Miguel Cotto's brother Jose Cotto (a fight where he was badly hurt in the 1st round). By contrast, Golovkin is 35 years old (over 8 years older than Canelo), is past his prime, and arguably showed signs of regression in his most recent fight last March vs. Jacobs - his first fight in 24 fights (spanning the course of nearly a decade) where he failed to win by stoppage. (The Jacobs fight was also a fight many felt Golovkin lost outright.)

Despite his youth, Canelo has - at just 27 years of age - amassed one of the more impressive resumes in boxing, having fought (and beaten) elite and/or high profile former world champions such as Amir Khan, Miguel Cotto, Erislandy Lara, Shane Mosley, and Austin Trout. (This is in addition to fighting undefeated and pound-for-pound #1 Floyd Mayweather when he was only 23 years old.) In terms of elite opponents, Canelo's experience is decisively superior to that of Golovkin, who has fought tougher, pound-for-pound level opponents in his most recent fights vs. Jacobs and (an undersized) Kell Brook, but prior to that had fought at best fringe world champions that no one would've even considered ranking in the top 50 pound-for-pound.

Saturday's fight, the most anticipated matchup of the year between two championship-level boxers, will take place on Mexican Independence Day weekend in a sold out T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas in front of a largely Mexican-American and Mexican crowd that will be overwhelmingly pro-Canelo - which could influence the fight inside the ring as well as the judges' scoring outside the ring. Judges' scorecards in Canelo fights have tended to strongly favor Canelo - even in fights considered close by the general public. (See the scoring in Canelo's recent competitive fights vs. Cotto, Lara, and Austin Trout as examples.) Even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw; so if this fight ends up being close and competitive it's more likely than not (based on previous history) that the fight will be scored in favor of Canelo. (Though low volume at times, Canelo does have a fan-friendly style complete with accurate and very clean power punching that judges often tend to favor.)

Canelo is a highly determined, poised fighter who has always been very mature for his age. He and his trainers (trainers who have made training Canelo their primary focus since he turned pro at 15 years old) will certainly be extremely well prepared for Saturday's fight, win or lose. Canelo comes across as a fighter who, aside from for his family, fights primarily for his legacy and comes across as a man who just wants (to win) this more than Golovkin. In Golovkin's last fight, Jacobs also struck me as the fighter who was more determined and wanted it more - which I think is a large part of the reason that fight was close and competitive. Canelo - a more efficient and accurate puncher than Jacobs (and arguably a better overall boxer - maybe the best boxer Golovkin has faced in his career) - just may have better results given his seemingly similar advantage in determination.

Why Gennady Golovkin will win

Gennady Golovkin is the reigning WBA (Super), WBC, IBF, and middleweight champion and Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #2 boxer in the world (behind only fellow undefeated boxer Andre Ward). Golovkin is undefeated at 37-0 and, with 33 KOs in 37 fights, holds the highest knockout percentage (89%) in middleweight boxing history. Golovkin has reigned as middleweight champion for over seven years and has won 23 out of his last 24 fights by TKO/KO. Golovkin is one of the better middleweight boxers in the history of the division, having successfully defended his middleweight title(s) 18 consecutive times - two wins shy of tying Bernard Hopkins' record of 20 consecutive middleweight title defenses. While Golovkin has spent his entire professional career at or around 160 lbs, Canelo is fighting only the second fight of his career above 155 lbs.

Golovkin's experience extends back to his highly impressive amateur career, which includes a reported 345-5 record and a silver medal at the middleweight division in the 2004 Olympics in Athens, Greece.

Golovkin is the most feared boxer in the sport (and has been among the most avoided boxers for a large portion of his career) for good reasons. He's an outstanding pressure fighter with excellent punching power in both hands - power generated in large part from the balance he maintains at seemingly all times (hence his 89% TKO/KO rate). Golovkin's arguably historically great power is complimented by technical savvy and underrated boxing skills - he is far from just a great power puncher. Golovkin is very accurate with superb timing on his punches and has one of the better jabs in the sport - a punch which was highly effective in his TKO two years ago vs. David Lemieux and will likely be a key weapon in his arsenal tonight vs. Canelo. (Like Wladimir Klitschko, Golovkin's jab essentially works as another power punch, with which he is also able to effectively control distance.)   

Golovkin's immense power combined with his ability to cutoff the ring effectively are perhaps the biggest detriments to Canelo's chances of winning this fight. Unlike Jacobs, who was able to have success vs. Golovkin largely due to effective foot movement and the ability to box while backing up, Canelo is relatively flat-footed and likely will not be able to evade Golovkin's pressure. Canelo is adept at avoiding punches from close distance with savvy upper body movement and a tight guard but - due to his lack of consistent foot movement - he will be within range of Golovkin's power punching for significant stretches of the fight; it's highly unlikely he will be able to elude Golovkin's accurate (and often overwhelming) power punches for a full 12 rounds. Golovkin will land clean power punches... the key question here is how well Canelo - who has never fought anyone possessing anything close to Golovkin's punching power before - takes those punches while executing his own counterpunching attack. While Canelo may come in to the fight a bit bigger than Golovkin in terms of weight, Golovkin is physically stronger and (perhaps by a much wider margin than people think) has the superior punching power. Canelo's defense is above average and has improved greatly over the course of his career, but he is limited (especially in terms of speed and his lack of foot movement) and almost certainly will (eventually) get caught with flush punching from Golovkin.

Canelo is an aggressive counterpuncher but Golovkin is - both by nature and by design - the more aggressive, relentless fighter; it is highly likely that he will both thrown and land more punches that the relatively patient, low-output Canelo. Canelo is further hampered in this regard with his noted stamina issues; he is notorious for often taking stretches of rounds off  (e.g., retreating to the corner of the ring, decreasing his punch output) to preserve energy. This is something he was able to get away with vs. smaller fighters with less punching power but likely won't be able to at middleweight vs. a stalking pressure fighter like Golovkin who perhaps has the most effective punching power in the sport. Note that even a smaller Floyd Mayweather - notorious for his cautious, defensive style and known to have hand issues that mitigate his punching power - was able to be the aggressor and effectively walk Canelo down in numerous spots during their fight; Golovkin is not as skilled as Mayweather but it's difficult to imagine a substantially bigger, more aggressive fighter with superior punching power like Golovkin being less successful in pressuring Canelo than Mayweather.  

On the opposite side of the attack, Golovkin has faced - and beaten - bigger fighters and better punchers than Canelo; both Lemieux and Jacobs have greater punching power than Canelo at middleweight and Golovkin appeared to handle their power with ease. In addition to his incredible offensive attack, Golovkin has arguably the best chin in boxing - having never been stopped or even knocked down once in over 385(!) fights as an amateur or pro. Despite winning every round convincingly, Canelo did not come close to stopping the larger Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.; it's tough to imagine he'll come close to stopping a fighter in Golovkin who will likely display superior defense and perform much more effectively overall than Chavez did. 

There are doubts about how good Canelo really is - do his skills really match his hype and popularity? Canelo arguably lost highly competitive decision victories vs. Lara (one judge scored the fight for Lara), Austin Trout, and even Cotto - where many (including myself) felt the scorecards should've been much closer. There is a feeling by many that Canelo is overrated and that he isn't even the best fighter Golovkin has fought in his career; when Jacobs fought Golovkin last March he (like Canelo) was also a one-loss fighter who perhaps matches up better with Golovkin than Canelo ever could due to his superior punching power, naturally bigger body frame, and ability to box effectively on his feet. Jacobs is an underrated boxer whose skills arguably match - and overall perhaps are even superior - to those of Canelo.

Canelo is a highly talented boxer with the power and counter punching skills to be highly effective vs. Golovkin but moving up - not only in weight from the 147-155 lb fighters he's used to fighting - but in levels from Chavez in his last fight to one of the best middleweight fighters of this generation in Golovkin may be a case of Canelo biting off more than he can chew.

Prefight Analysis

I do think Canelo is a live underdog in this fight, to the extent that I'd actually consider grading him as a favorite if I knew with certainty that he'd be able to handle Golovkin's power at least as well as Jacobs did last March. Canelo, who is in the prime of his career and seems to have improved with each fight, is the younger, better skilled boxer and has the elite counter punching ability inside to potentially outbox a pressuring Golovkin from close distance. Golovkin has proven that he has a fantastic chin, but he is relatively untested to the body; if Canelo can have success landing body shots inside that may be effective in mitigating Golovkin's attack. Canelo is the more accurate puncher with quicker hands than Golovkin; I fully expect that he will be able to compete in stretches with Golovkin in the early rounds, particularly on the inside. If Canelo - who has never been stopped or knocked down in a fight - can withstand Golovkin's pressure and last the full twelve rounds, history indicates that he could very well be given the benefit of the doubt on the judges' scorecards... especially given his judge-friendly, clean-punching style and the overwhelming crowd support he'll receive at T-Mobile Arena, which may also influence the judges.

With that said, I think there is a mismatch in effective power here that I think will be too much for Canelo to overcome. Canelo's chin has been solid at lower weights but Golovkin is by far the best power puncher Canelo has faced in his career, which I think will be more than enough to overcome Canelo's advantage in skill.

Canelo may be a better pure boxer than Golovkin, but so were Golovkin's last two opponents (Jacobs and Kell Brook last September). Like Canelo, Brook was a pound-for-pound ranked, big fighter for his weight division with elite skills who moved up in weight to challenge for Golovkin's middleweight titles. Brook - who I believe is a better boxer than Canelo - arguably outboxed Golovkin in the early rounds but got overwhelmed by Golovkin's power, forcing his corner to stop the fight in the 5th round.

As mentioned previously Golovkin struggled for portions of his fight vs. Jacobs but Jacobs, in my opinion, is a very underrated boxer who had the size, foot speed, and power as a true middleweight
to give Golovkin problems. Jacobs was also able to confuse Golovkin by giving him different looks (i.e., switching from orthodox to southpaw stance and vice-versa) at times during the fight. Unlike Jacobs, Canelo doesn't have the speed to elude Golovkin's pressure for twelve rounds and I doubt he has the power at middleweight (that he had at light middleweight and welterweight) to pose a real threat to a fighter in Golovkin who is arguably the best middleweight of this generation.

I also expect Canelo's noted issues with stamina to be a severe detriment vs. a stalking, pressure fighter like Golovkin; Canelo won't have the opportunities tonight that he's had in lower weight classes or vs. less-skilled opponents to conserve energy by taking breaks during rounds. Canelo's recent gain in muscle mass may also negatively affect his stamina, not to mention lessen the solid hand speed he's displayed at lower weights.

Given the power discrepancy in this matchup, along with Canelo's flat-footed boxing style and questionable stamina, I think the most likely outcome of this fight is Golovkin by TKO/KO. If Canelo can't escape Golovkin's range and is unable to withstand his power, he doesn't stand much of a chance over the course of twelve rounds. However, the value (at -150) is so solid on Golovkin simply to win the fight (I'd personally grade this matchup at minimum -400 in favor of Golovkin) that I recommend placing the majority of the bet on this fight on Golovkin to win, with a smaller amount on the most likely specific outcome of Golovkin by TKO/KO/DQ (which can currently be found as high as +160).

Canelo has been the beneficiary of generous scoring in his previous fights that have lasted twelve rounds, but note that these were generally fights where he was mostly the aggressor (most notably his controversial wins vs. Lara, Trout, and his loss to Mayweather where one judge scored the fight a draw). I see Golovkin's power largely dominating this fight and can't see Canelo being the aggressor for much of this fight even if he lasts the full twelve rounds.

I see Golovkin's power vs. Canelo's largely flat-footed style possibly being a bigger mismatch than what people are expecting (to the extent that this *could* end up being a very easy fight for Golovkin). But, in terms of high-profile, elite talent still at the peaks of their career, this is one of the better matchups we've seen in a long, long time so let's hope the fight lives up to the hype!

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO

Recommended bets: 
1) Golovkin to win (2 units) 
2) Golovkin by TKO/KO/DQ (.5 unit)

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