Canelo vs. Golovkin II: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

Follow @mouzonebrother

Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (49-1-2 34 KOs) vs. Gennady Golovkin (38-0-1, 34 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 15, 2018
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World middleweight and WBA Super World middleweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez: +140, Golovkin: -150 (5 Dimes, 9/15/18)
Purse: Alvarez: $5 million, Golovkin: $5 million  (guaranteed money only - both fighters stand to make substantially more based on a 55% Canelo/45% Golovkin split of PPV revenues, ticket sales, etc.)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: Not ranked (due to PED suspension), Golovkin: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Golovkin: Orthodox
Referee: Benjy Estevez

Why you should watch this fight

Because this is (by far) the most anticipated fight of the year - a surefire action-packed matchup between probably the two best middleweights in the world who also happen to be two of the best fighters in the world pound-for-pound.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin is the long-awaited rematch of a fantastic fight last year that ended in a (very) controversial draw. Most (including me, who scored the fight 8 rounds to 4 for Golovkin) felt Golovkin clearly won the fight. Earlier this year, a rematch of last year's fight was agreed to and scheduled to take place in May, but was ultimately cancelled and rescheduled for tonight due to Canelo's two failed tests for the performance-enhancing drug clenbuterol, which resulted in Canelo receiving a 6-month suspension from the Nevada Athletic Commission. (The suspension was effective beginning in February and just ended last month.)

Canelo's failed drug tests (and resulting suspension) has somewhat diminished the popularity of the wildly popular Mexican boxer - even amongst his own countrymen. The controversy surrounding the failed tests also generated significant (and very genuine) tension and dislike between Canelo and Golovkin, who were previously on relatively friendly terms. Still, Canelo is easily the top PPV attraction in boxing; despite lack of heavy promotion, last year's Canelo vs. Golovkin fight sold 1.3 million buys - the most PPV buys for a boxing match not involving Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson in 2002. (Tonight's fight is widely expected to exceed the 1.3 million buys from last year's fight.) Canelo is still in the middle of his prime - with elite boxing skills to match his popularity - and still only has one loss on his record (to the undefeated and now retired Mayweather).

Canelo will be facing an aging, but still deadly Golovkin who - at 36 years old - is still arguably the best knockout artist in boxing, having just come off a 2nd-round KO victory vs. Vanes Martirosyan in his last fight this past May. Golovkin is actually the #1-ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world by Ring Magazine and has won 34 out of his 39 fights - including 24 out of his last 26 fights - by stoppage for a KO% of 87%, the highest KO% in middleweight boxing history. 

The winner of this fight will have earned what will be the most significant win of their career (a win that will likely be considered the signature win of their career years from now upon retirement) and will have a solid claim as the best fighter in the world pound-for-pound. For Golovkin this would be the best win of an already hall-of-fame career and move him further up the list of the greatest middleweights of all time. If he retires tomorrow, Canelo is already a probable hall-of-famer but a win this Saturday over an undefeated Golovkin would secure his status as a Mexican legend. A win for Canelo would also go along way towards regaining respect from the numerous boxing fans who question whether his career has been unfairly bolstered by performance-enhancing drugs (given his recent failed drug tests).

The winner of this fight could possibly be in line for a unification megafight next year with undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders, who is defending his title next month in Boston vs. undefeated - and highly regarded - middleweight Demetrius Andrade.

Prefight Analysis

Last year, I picked Golovkin to win the first fight and - as many observers did - thought he won convincingly. Although Golovkin didn't knock Canelo out as I expected, I thought he was certainly the more effective aggressor; per CompuBox stats he threw and landed more punches in 10 out of 12 rounds of the fight, maintained consistent pressure behind his jab, and dominated the middle rounds when Canelo tired after a solid start in the first 3 rounds.

It would be very reasonable to think not much will change for the rematch tonight. I still think Canelo is the better-skilled boxer (as he was last year in their first fight) but the rematch - as with the first fight - still likely features a mismatch in effective power and pressure that will be difficult for Canelo to overcome. It's hard to imagine that the bigger, physically stronger, superior (and perhaps historically great) power puncher in Golovkin won't still be effective in pressuring a smaller, relatively low-volume, flat-footed fighter in Canelo despite Canelo's ring intelligence, deceptive elusiveness, and superior skill. One also needs to consider that the stamina problems that plagued Canelo in the middle rounds of his first fight with Golovkin (and have plagued him in the middle to late rounds of numerous prior fights to the extent that he often takes portions of rounds off to conserve energy) likely won't just go away for this fight - at least to some extent we should expect Canelo's notorious issues with stamina to manifest again vs. a constantly pressuring Golovkin.

Also consider that ring rust and diminished mobility may possibly be factors in tonight's rematch. Canelo has been inactive for a year - the longest layoff of his 12-year career - and is coming off a knee surgery in April for which he is still wearing a knee brace. 

Golovkin is correctly graded as the favorite for the rematch. But the more I think about this fight, the more I think Canelo has a very real shot here for the upset. In general for rematches, we at least somewhat know what to expect relative to fights where fighters are facing each other for the first time. But this particular rematch is a bit different as there are numerous unknown variables and unanswered questions to consider, including:

 How much has Golovkin regressed since his previous fight with Canelo? At 36 years old, Golovkin is past his prime and has shown in some recent fights - including his last fight vs. Canelo and his fight last year vs. Danny Jacobs - that he doesn't cut off the ring and pressure nearly as well as he did in his prime. In his last fight, Golovkin made quick work of Vanes Martirosyan, winning by KO in the 2nd round. But Martirosyan was a lesser-caliber opponent who was fighting on only a few weeks notice for the first time at middleweight after a two-year layoff. Canelo, on the other hand, is still in the middle of his prime and has noticeably improved with each fight since his 2013 loss to Mayweather. Canelo handled Golovkin's pressure much better than expected in their first fight; the most likely scenario would be that Canelo has an even better performance vs. a slower, aging Golovkin one year later.

Was Canelo on performance enhancing drugs for the previous fight? Canelo failed two drug tests leading up to the previously scheduled rematch date in May, testing positive for the performance enhancing drug clenbuterol. He has vehemently denied accusations of drug use, blaming the failed drug tests on tainted meat. Like most I'm highly skeptical of this denial but lean towards giving him the benefit of the doubt on this one occasion. If Canelo was on performance enhancing drugs I think it will show pretty clearly by the middle rounds of the fight; if Canelo was on drugs I see the most likely outcome for this fight being a dominant Golovkin performance en route to a mid to late round stoppage. But if Canelo was clean I think the most likely outcome is an even better performance from Canelo in tonight's fight than the previous fight, especially when you consider Golovkin's recent regression and Canelo's superior boxing skills.

Will Canelo get the benefit of favorable judging in this fight (as he did the previous fight)? The judging in the first fight clearly favored Canelo with some dubious scoring, including a 118-110 (10 rounds to 2) score from judge Adelaide Byrd that even Canelo and his promoter Oscar De La Hoya) disagreed with. (Both have stated they felt Canelo won "7 or 8" rounds.) Don Trella scored the 7th round, arguably Golovkin's best round in the fight, for Canelo which resulted in him scoring the fight a draw overall. (If he'd scored that round for Golovkin as the other two judges did Golovkin would've won the fight by majority decision.) With the significant postfight controversy surrounding the scoring (which resulted in Byrd being temporarily benched from judging by the Nevada Athletic Commission and removed from judging any major fights since) one has to wonder where the scoring bias is more likely to lie in tonight's fight. On the one hand, the judges scoring the fight might be sensitive to the previous controversy and feel pressure to be fair towards Golovkin to the extent that they give him the benefit of the doubt in close rounds and are actually biased in his favor. On the other hand, we could conceivably see a repeat of questionable judging in the more politically connected, "A-side" Canelo's favor - especially given that the crowd at T-Mobile in Las Vegas is expected to be pro-Canelo. It does seem Canelo has received very favorable scoring in most of his fights over the past few years, including a couple of controversial decision victories vs. Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout, as well as his loss to Mayweather where one judge scored the fight a draw (despite most observers seeing the fight as a wide decision victory for Mayweather). To be fair, Canelo - while generally deliberate and patient - has a judge-friendly style featuring showy, accurate, clean power punches that are easier for judges to score. (Canelo landed most of the flashy, "highlight" punches in the first fight with Golovkin.) 

How will Canelo's leaner physique affect the fight? In preparing for the rematch it appears Canelo has targeted a smaller, less muscular physique than he had in the first fight. One can surmise that he likely won't have as much punching power, thus will be less likely of a threat to hurt or knockout Golovkin in the rematch. But there is a good chance Canelo's leaner physique also results in improved mobility, elusiveness, and speed which could make his counterpunching more effective. The leaner physique may also result in improved stamina, which could be critical as Canelo's relative lack of work rate and energy in the middle rounds was one of the primary reasons he didn't get the decision victory in the first fight.

I thought Golovkin very clearly won the first fight (and was rooting for him to win that fight) but came away more impressed by how Canelo performed. I expected Golovkin to win by knockout but Canelo was able to elude Golovkin's power for most of the fight (never even coming close to being either knocked down or stopped, which has been the fate of every Golovkin opponent in recent years) and was able to consistently outbox Golovkin on the inside with savvy counterpunching. When Canelo tired in the middle rounds he was dominated, but when he had energy and was trading punches with Golovkin in the early and later rounds he arguably got the better of most of those exchanges. Canelo's counterpunching to the body in particular made a typically aggressive, punch-happy Golovkin more reluctant than usual to throw his own power punches.

While I thought Golovkin was clearly the more aggressive and effective puncher over the whole course of the first fight (which I thought won him the fight), I also came away from the fight with the impression that Canelo was clearly the more skilled boxer, with superior movement, speed, and counterpunching ability. For me, Canelo's draw with Golovkin was arguably as impressive as any fight that Canelo has actually won.

For these reasons, I think the best value on this fight is Canelo to win by decision at +200 or above.  All variables considered, I'd grade Golovkin at 55-60% to win tonight's fight but the fact is, Golovkin's effective pressure - including his ability to cut off the ring - has noticeably deteriorated in recent fights (including the first fight with Canelo). A year after that fight, I expect the ability of an aging, past-prime Golovkin to effectively pressure his opponent to further diminish. On the other side I see Canelo - who is still in his prime - making adjustments to mitigate Golovkin's pressure and counter even more effectively than he did in the previous fight. One key adjustment is the leaner physique; what Canelo may lose in punching power and strength from the less muscular frame he may gain in stamina, elusiveness, and the ability to be a more high-volume counterpuncher.

Canelo is a high IQ fighter who takes his craft very seriously and over the years seems to have improved with each fight. I think in front of a mostly pro-Canelo crowd in Las Vegas with something to prove after the drug accusations that have (rightly or wrongly) tarnished his reputation, there is a good chance he puts on perhaps the most impressive performance of his career and beats Golovkin in a competitive but clear decision victory. Note that it is typically the more skilled boxer who makes the necessary adjustments and has the better performance in a rematch; I see that being the case for tonight's fight. As hyped as Canelo is, I actually feel that in terms of pure boxing skill, he is actually still a somewhat underrated boxer who put on maybe the best performance in his career in getting the draw vs. Golovkin - a fight which I felt Canelo lost. I see him putting on an even better performance - perhaps vs. an overeager Golovkin trying too hard for the knockout - and getting the win tonight.

A victory by Canelo against Golovkin instantly puts him on the same level as recent Mexican legends like Juan Manuel Marquez, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Erik Morales; I think there's a decent chance we see it happen this Mexican Independence Day weekend.

I will be at the fight and am looking forward to seeing what happens!

Prediction: Golovkin to win

Recommended bet: Canelo by 12-round decision (.5 unit) 

Follow @mouzonebrother  for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!

Canelo vs. Golovkin: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Follow @mouzonebrother

Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (49-1-1 34 KOs) vs. Gennady Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 16, 2017
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World middleweight, WBA Super World middleweight, and IBF World middleweight titles (Canelo has opted not to accept the WBC belt if he wins so that title will become vacant if Canelo wins the fight.)
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez: +140, Golvkin: -150 (5 Dimes, 9/16/17)
Purse: Alvarez: $5 million, Golovkin: $3 million  (guaranteed money only - both fighters stand to make substantially more based on their share of PPV revenues, ticket sales, etc.)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #8 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Golovkin: #2 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Golovkin: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

Thus far, 2017 has been an outstanding year for boxing featuring quite a few thrilling fights and long-awaited matchups between high-profile boxers. But tonight's fight between Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin is probably the most long-awaited, highly anticipated matchup of them all. Tonight will be a matchup between two of the biggest names in boxing - both of whom are ranked in Ring Magazine pound-for-pound top 10 and are arguably the two best middleweights in the sport.

With Floyd Mayweather's retirement, Canelo is unquestionably the top PPV attraction in boxing right now - he's a wildly popular boxer (particularly in his home country of Mexico, where he attracts Superbowl-like ratings every time he fights) in the prime of his career with elite skills to match his popularity. The only loss on Canelo's record is to undefeated pound-for-pound legend Mayweather, but Canelo seems to have noticeably improved after each fight since that loss with seven consecutive wins, six of which came against current or former world champions.

But, including the Mayweather fight, Canelo is now faced with what may be the toughest fight of his career in Golovkin. Gennady Golovkin, the #2 pound-for-pound ranked boxer in the world by Ring Magazine, is the undefeated WBA, WBC, and IBF middleweight champion of the world and has won 33 out of his 37 professional fights - including 23 out of his last 24 fights - by stoppage for a KO% of 89%, the highest KO% in middleweight boxing history. Golovkin looked vulnerable in his last fight - a closely-contested unanimous decision victory vs. Danny Jacobs last March (a fight which many felt he lost) - but Golovkin is still considered the most feared man in boxing. With the exception of his most recent fight vs. Jacobs, every fight scheduled for longer than 8 rounds in Golovkin's professional career (10 or 12 rounds) has ended in stoppage. Tonight will actually be Golovkin's first ever fight as a pro in Las Vegas.

On the heels of the much-hyped, entertaining, but (arguably) farcical Mayweather vs. McGregor boxing exhibition a few weeks ago, Canelo vs. Golovkin is what many would consider to be the real fight hardcore and casual boxing fans alike have been waiting for all year. Both Canelo and Golovkin are aggressive, stalking power punchers who prefer to fight from close range so this fight is virtually guaranteed to be an action-packed, intense matchup that likely won't last the full 12 rounds.

The winner of this fight will have earned by far the most significant win of their career (a win that will likely be the signature win of their career years from now upon retirement) and will have legitimate claim to be considered the #1 boxer in the sport pound-for-pound. The winner of this fight will also be the holder of at least two major middleweight title belts (Canelo has refused to accept the WBC middleweight title if he wins on Saturday night due to the WBC essentially forcing him to vacate middleweight title last year after failed negotiations with Golovkin, the mandatory challenger for the WBC title at the time) which sets up a possible unification megafight next year with undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders.

Already noted as one of the better middleweights in boxing history, Golovkin could retire tomorrow and likely be a boxing Hall of Fame inductee. Canelo perhaps isn't quite Hall-of-Fame level yet but a win over Golovkin Saturday night would make him an instant Mexican boxing legend (if he isn't already) and secure his status as a future Hall of Famer.

Why Canelo Alvarez will win

Canelo comes into this fight as a slight (+140) underdog but - like Golovkin - is widely considered one of the best boxers in the sport pound-for-pound. Canelo is ranked the #8 boxer in the world pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine and has been considered by the publication to be the true middleweight champion of the world since November 2015, when he beat Miguel Cotto by unanimous decision. Canelo doesn't currently hold any major world titles, but has previously held major titles in two weight divisions (light middleweight and middleweight), including being a former unified light middleweight champion  as well as being the lineal and WBC middleweight champion in recent years before (voluntarily) vacating the titles.

Canelo is a patient, but accurate and highly efficient puncher who has developed into arguably the best aggressive counterpuncher in the sport. Canelo is a technically savvy, A-level boxer with very good to great power in both hands. He throws multi-punch combinations as well as anyone in the sport (especially in terms of variation combined with power, accuracy, and deceptive hand speed) and is an excellent, committed body puncher. (Canelo's best punches are his left hook to the body and right uppercut, which have resulted in multiple TKO/KO victories in his most recent fights.)

Canelo is considered by most observers (including myself) to be the better pure boxer in this matchup. He is the higher IQ boxer, has advantages in hand and foot speed, and is the fighter more adept at making adjustments over the course of the fight. Canelo has only fought above 155 lbs twice in his career but has bulked up (in terms of muscle mass) significantly and will likely come into this fight with a size advantage vs. Golovkin, who has fought his entire professional career at or around 160 lbs.

In previous fights, Canelo has primarily had issues with slick fighters who move well and box mostly from distance (see his loss to Mayweather and his close, competitive fights vs. Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout). He certainly won't be up against this style of opponent on Saturday; a stalking pressure fighter who will be right in front of him the entire night. Canelo has superior inside fighting skills to Golovkin, and - in multiple recent fights - has shown that he is highly adept at counter punching effectively under pressure from close range with accurate, clean power punches. One should not be at all surprised if Canelo, unlike any previous Golovkin opponent, is able to outbox Golovkin on the inside with his back against the ropes - especially given that Golovkin's come-forward, pressuring style does provide ample clean counter punching opportunities.  I expect Canelo's superior hand speed and accurate power to be effective in spots here - even against a fighter with a seemingly impenetrable chin in Golovkin.

Although no defensive wizard, Canelo is also perhaps the more defensively skilled fighter compared to Golovkin. Canelo's upper body defensive movement in particular has noticeably improved in recent years, which should serve him well defending from close range vs. Golovkin. Canelo has also shown a solid chin over the course of his career; he's never been stopped or even knocked down in any of his fights as a pro. While not bad defensively, Golovkin's defense often times is mostly his offense; in executing his pressure attack he at times gets careless in terms of leaving his hands down and leaving himself open to clean counter punching after throwing punches. Canelo almost certainly will have some success exploiting Golovkin's defensive flaws.

Canelo is still a relatively young fighter still in the prime of his career and has shown noticeable improvement in most of his fights since his first Las Vegas fight several years ago vs. Miguel Cotto's brother Jose Cotto (a fight where he was badly hurt in the 1st round). By contrast, Golovkin is 35 years old (over 8 years older than Canelo), is past his prime, and arguably showed signs of regression in his most recent fight last March vs. Jacobs - his first fight in 24 fights (spanning the course of nearly a decade) where he failed to win by stoppage. (The Jacobs fight was also a fight many felt Golovkin lost outright.)

Despite his youth, Canelo has - at just 27 years of age - amassed one of the more impressive resumes in boxing, having fought (and beaten) elite and/or high profile former world champions such as Amir Khan, Miguel Cotto, Erislandy Lara, Shane Mosley, and Austin Trout. (This is in addition to fighting undefeated and pound-for-pound #1 Floyd Mayweather when he was only 23 years old.) In terms of elite opponents, Canelo's experience is decisively superior to that of Golovkin, who has fought tougher, pound-for-pound level opponents in his most recent fights vs. Jacobs and (an undersized) Kell Brook, but prior to that had fought at best fringe world champions that no one would've even considered ranking in the top 50 pound-for-pound.

Saturday's fight, the most anticipated matchup of the year between two championship-level boxers, will take place on Mexican Independence Day weekend in a sold out T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas in front of a largely Mexican-American and Mexican crowd that will be overwhelmingly pro-Canelo - which could influence the fight inside the ring as well as the judges' scoring outside the ring. Judges' scorecards in Canelo fights have tended to strongly favor Canelo - even in fights considered close by the general public. (See the scoring in Canelo's recent competitive fights vs. Cotto, Lara, and Austin Trout as examples.) Even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw; so if this fight ends up being close and competitive it's more likely than not (based on previous history) that the fight will be scored in favor of Canelo. (Though low volume at times, Canelo does have a fan-friendly style complete with accurate and very clean power punching that judges often tend to favor.)

Canelo is a highly determined, poised fighter who has always been very mature for his age. He and his trainers (trainers who have made training Canelo their primary focus since he turned pro at 15 years old) will certainly be extremely well prepared for Saturday's fight, win or lose. Canelo comes across as a fighter who, aside from for his family, fights primarily for his legacy and comes across as a man who just wants (to win) this more than Golovkin. In Golovkin's last fight, Jacobs also struck me as the fighter who was more determined and wanted it more - which I think is a large part of the reason that fight was close and competitive. Canelo - a more efficient and accurate puncher than Jacobs (and arguably a better overall boxer - maybe the best boxer Golovkin has faced in his career) - just may have better results given his seemingly similar advantage in determination.

Why Gennady Golovkin will win

Gennady Golovkin is the reigning WBA (Super), WBC, IBF, and middleweight champion and Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #2 boxer in the world (behind only fellow undefeated boxer Andre Ward). Golovkin is undefeated at 37-0 and, with 33 KOs in 37 fights, holds the highest knockout percentage (89%) in middleweight boxing history. Golovkin has reigned as middleweight champion for over seven years and has won 23 out of his last 24 fights by TKO/KO. Golovkin is one of the better middleweight boxers in the history of the division, having successfully defended his middleweight title(s) 18 consecutive times - two wins shy of tying Bernard Hopkins' record of 20 consecutive middleweight title defenses. While Golovkin has spent his entire professional career at or around 160 lbs, Canelo is fighting only the second fight of his career above 155 lbs.

Golovkin's experience extends back to his highly impressive amateur career, which includes a reported 345-5 record and a silver medal at the middleweight division in the 2004 Olympics in Athens, Greece.

Golovkin is the most feared boxer in the sport (and has been among the most avoided boxers for a large portion of his career) for good reasons. He's an outstanding pressure fighter with excellent punching power in both hands - power generated in large part from the balance he maintains at seemingly all times (hence his 89% TKO/KO rate). Golovkin's arguably historically great power is complimented by technical savvy and underrated boxing skills - he is far from just a great power puncher. Golovkin is very accurate with superb timing on his punches and has one of the better jabs in the sport - a punch which was highly effective in his TKO two years ago vs. David Lemieux and will likely be a key weapon in his arsenal tonight vs. Canelo. (Like Wladimir Klitschko, Golovkin's jab essentially works as another power punch, with which he is also able to effectively control distance.)   

Golovkin's immense power combined with his ability to cutoff the ring effectively are perhaps the biggest detriments to Canelo's chances of winning this fight. Unlike Jacobs, who was able to have success vs. Golovkin largely due to effective foot movement and the ability to box while backing up, Canelo is relatively flat-footed and likely will not be able to evade Golovkin's pressure. Canelo is adept at avoiding punches from close distance with savvy upper body movement and a tight guard but - due to his lack of consistent foot movement - he will be within range of Golovkin's power punching for significant stretches of the fight; it's highly unlikely he will be able to elude Golovkin's accurate (and often overwhelming) power punches for a full 12 rounds. Golovkin will land clean power punches... the key question here is how well Canelo - who has never fought anyone possessing anything close to Golovkin's punching power before - takes those punches while executing his own counterpunching attack. While Canelo may come in to the fight a bit bigger than Golovkin in terms of weight, Golovkin is physically stronger and (perhaps by a much wider margin than people think) has the superior punching power. Canelo's defense is above average and has improved greatly over the course of his career, but he is limited (especially in terms of speed and his lack of foot movement) and almost certainly will (eventually) get caught with flush punching from Golovkin.

Canelo is an aggressive counterpuncher but Golovkin is - both by nature and by design - the more aggressive, relentless fighter; it is highly likely that he will both thrown and land more punches that the relatively patient, low-output Canelo. Canelo is further hampered in this regard with his noted stamina issues; he is notorious for often taking stretches of rounds off  (e.g., retreating to the corner of the ring, decreasing his punch output) to preserve energy. This is something he was able to get away with vs. smaller fighters with less punching power but likely won't be able to at middleweight vs. a stalking pressure fighter like Golovkin who perhaps has the most effective punching power in the sport. Note that even a smaller Floyd Mayweather - notorious for his cautious, defensive style and known to have hand issues that mitigate his punching power - was able to be the aggressor and effectively walk Canelo down in numerous spots during their fight; Golovkin is not as skilled as Mayweather but it's difficult to imagine a substantially bigger, more aggressive fighter with superior punching power like Golovkin being less successful in pressuring Canelo than Mayweather.  

On the opposite side of the attack, Golovkin has faced - and beaten - bigger fighters and better punchers than Canelo; both Lemieux and Jacobs have greater punching power than Canelo at middleweight and Golovkin appeared to handle their power with ease. In addition to his incredible offensive attack, Golovkin has arguably the best chin in boxing - having never been stopped or even knocked down once in over 385(!) fights as an amateur or pro. Despite winning every round convincingly, Canelo did not come close to stopping the larger Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.; it's tough to imagine he'll come close to stopping a fighter in Golovkin who will likely display superior defense and perform much more effectively overall than Chavez did. 

There are doubts about how good Canelo really is - do his skills really match his hype and popularity? Canelo arguably lost highly competitive decision victories vs. Lara (one judge scored the fight for Lara), Austin Trout, and even Cotto - where many (including myself) felt the scorecards should've been much closer. There is a feeling by many that Canelo is overrated and that he isn't even the best fighter Golovkin has fought in his career; when Jacobs fought Golovkin last March he (like Canelo) was also a one-loss fighter who perhaps matches up better with Golovkin than Canelo ever could due to his superior punching power, naturally bigger body frame, and ability to box effectively on his feet. Jacobs is an underrated boxer whose skills arguably match - and overall perhaps are even superior - to those of Canelo.

Canelo is a highly talented boxer with the power and counter punching skills to be highly effective vs. Golovkin but moving up - not only in weight from the 147-155 lb fighters he's used to fighting - but in levels from Chavez in his last fight to one of the best middleweight fighters of this generation in Golovkin may be a case of Canelo biting off more than he can chew.

Prefight Analysis

I do think Canelo is a live underdog in this fight, to the extent that I'd actually consider grading him as a favorite if I knew with certainty that he'd be able to handle Golovkin's power at least as well as Jacobs did last March. Canelo, who is in the prime of his career and seems to have improved with each fight, is the younger, better skilled boxer and has the elite counter punching ability inside to potentially outbox a pressuring Golovkin from close distance. Golovkin has proven that he has a fantastic chin, but he is relatively untested to the body; if Canelo can have success landing body shots inside that may be effective in mitigating Golovkin's attack. Canelo is the more accurate puncher with quicker hands than Golovkin; I fully expect that he will be able to compete in stretches with Golovkin in the early rounds, particularly on the inside. If Canelo - who has never been stopped or knocked down in a fight - can withstand Golovkin's pressure and last the full twelve rounds, history indicates that he could very well be given the benefit of the doubt on the judges' scorecards... especially given his judge-friendly, clean-punching style and the overwhelming crowd support he'll receive at T-Mobile Arena, which may also influence the judges.

With that said, I think there is a mismatch in effective power here that I think will be too much for Canelo to overcome. Canelo's chin has been solid at lower weights but Golovkin is by far the best power puncher Canelo has faced in his career, which I think will be more than enough to overcome Canelo's advantage in skill.

Canelo may be a better pure boxer than Golovkin, but so were Golovkin's last two opponents (Jacobs and Kell Brook last September). Like Canelo, Brook was a pound-for-pound ranked, big fighter for his weight division with elite skills who moved up in weight to challenge for Golovkin's middleweight titles. Brook - who I believe is a better boxer than Canelo - arguably outboxed Golovkin in the early rounds but got overwhelmed by Golovkin's power, forcing his corner to stop the fight in the 5th round.

As mentioned previously Golovkin struggled for portions of his fight vs. Jacobs but Jacobs, in my opinion, is a very underrated boxer who had the size, foot speed, and power as a true middleweight
to give Golovkin problems. Jacobs was also able to confuse Golovkin by giving him different looks (i.e., switching from orthodox to southpaw stance and vice-versa) at times during the fight. Unlike Jacobs, Canelo doesn't have the speed to elude Golovkin's pressure for twelve rounds and I doubt he has the power at middleweight (that he had at light middleweight and welterweight) to pose a real threat to a fighter in Golovkin who is arguably the best middleweight of this generation.

I also expect Canelo's noted issues with stamina to be a severe detriment vs. a stalking, pressure fighter like Golovkin; Canelo won't have the opportunities tonight that he's had in lower weight classes or vs. less-skilled opponents to conserve energy by taking breaks during rounds. Canelo's recent gain in muscle mass may also negatively affect his stamina, not to mention lessen the solid hand speed he's displayed at lower weights.

Given the power discrepancy in this matchup, along with Canelo's flat-footed boxing style and questionable stamina, I think the most likely outcome of this fight is Golovkin by TKO/KO. If Canelo can't escape Golovkin's range and is unable to withstand his power, he doesn't stand much of a chance over the course of twelve rounds. However, the value (at -150) is so solid on Golovkin simply to win the fight (I'd personally grade this matchup at minimum -400 in favor of Golovkin) that I recommend placing the majority of the bet on this fight on Golovkin to win, with a smaller amount on the most likely specific outcome of Golovkin by TKO/KO/DQ (which can currently be found as high as +160).

Canelo has been the beneficiary of generous scoring in his previous fights that have lasted twelve rounds, but note that these were generally fights where he was mostly the aggressor (most notably his controversial wins vs. Lara, Trout, and his loss to Mayweather where one judge scored the fight a draw). I see Golovkin's power largely dominating this fight and can't see Canelo being the aggressor for much of this fight even if he lasts the full twelve rounds.

I see Golovkin's power vs. Canelo's largely flat-footed style possibly being a bigger mismatch than what people are expecting (to the extent that this *could* end up being a very easy fight for Golovkin). But, in terms of high-profile, elite talent still at the peaks of their career, this is one of the better matchups we've seen in a long, long time so let's hope the fight lives up to the hype!

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO

Recommended bets: 
1) Golovkin to win (2 units) 
2) Golovkin by TKO/KO/DQ (.5 unit)

Follow @mouzonebrother  for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!

Mayweather vs. McGregor: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Follow @mouzonebrother

Fight: Floyd Mayweather (49-0 26 KOs) vs. Conor McGregor (0-0, 0 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: August 26, 2017
Weight class: Super Middleweight (154 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Mayweather: -580, McGregor: +490 (5 Dimes, 8/25/17)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Mayweather: Not ranked (first fight in 23.5 months), McGregor: Not ranked (first professional fight as a boxer)
Purse: Mayweather: $100 million, McGregor: $30 million (guaranteed money only - both fighters stand to make substantially more based on their share of PPV revenues, ticket sales, etc.)
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, McGregor: Southpaw
Referee: Robert Byrd

Why you should watch this fight

Mayweather vs. McGregor is considered by many to be the biggest event in the history of modern combat sports (a history that spans 150+ years). The event is widely projected to set the record for highest grossing event in the history of boxing (exceeding the record $410 million in gross revenues earned by Mayweather vs. Pacquiao in 2015) as well as the record for most pay-per-view (PPV) buys in boxing (exceeding Mayweather vs. Pacquiao's record 4.6 million PPV buys).

This once-in-a-lifetime mega fight features Floyd Mayweather Jr. - considered by most to be the greatest boxer of this generation and considered by some to be the greatest boxer ever - vs. Conor McGregor, by far the biggest name in MMA and arguably the best fighter in the MMA today pound-for-pound (though is currently ranked by most #3 pound-for-pound behind Jon Jones and Demetrious Johnson).

Mayweather is an undefeated (49-0), all-time-great, five-division world champion boxer with nearly 21 years of professional boxing experience who has beaten a record 24 current or former world champions in what will be a first ballot hall-of-fame career. Tomorrow, he will be fighting an MMA fighter in McGregor who has never boxed professionally (0-0 record) and had an unremarkable amateur boxing career. Despite the obvious disparity on paper, there is still enormous intrigue here given that Mayweather and McGregor are by far the two biggest names in combat sports. Also, Mayweather is 40 years old, hasn't fought in nearly two years, and isn't the boxer he was in his prime while McGregor is over a decade younger (29 years old), in the prime of his career, and has a reputation for having very good to great boxing skills for an MMA fighter.

There seems to be a genuine belief amongst many (perhaps aided by McGregor's immense popularity and the desire by many - boxing and MMA fans alike - to see Mayweather lose his first fight) that McGregor has very realistic shot to win this fight, which is reflected in the fact that the overwhelming majority of bets on this fight (reported as high as 95% of bets at the MGM sportsbook) are being placed on McGregor to win. Mayweather - who opened at some sportsbooks as more than a 20-1 (-2000) favorite - is currently only an approximately 6-1 (-600) favorite at most sportsbooks.

Will Mayweather reach 50-0 and surpass a record he currently shares with Rocky Marciano (49-0) for most career wins without a loss or tie by a current or former world champion upon retirement? Or will McGregor be able to take advantage of his size advantage at 154 lbs (a weight Mayweather has only fought at twice before in his career) to pull off what would be considered the greatest upset in sports history and put a permanent black mark on a sport in boxing that has struggled in recent years to retain its status as a mainstream sport?

Why Floyd Mayweather will win

At least on paper, Mayweather vs. McGregor may literally be the biggest mismatch in the history of top-level professional sports. Mayweather has never lost a fight (moreover has rarely even come close to losing a fight) and is one of the greatest boxers - arguably the single greatest defensive boxer - in the 150+ year history of modern boxing. Per (relatively objective) punch stat tracking, Mayweather is by far the most accurate, efficient, overall dominant fighter in the history of the sport for CompuBox-tracked fights. Mayweather is a former five-weight division world champion with over 21 years of professional experience facing an opponent in McGregor who has never boxed professionally (and has had limited amateur experience vs. non world-class opponents). Mayweather - considered one of the more intelligent, crafty fighters in the history of the sport - comes into this fight with what should be an overwhelming advantage in pure boxing experience, skill, and IQ.

Mayweather is 40 years old (over 11 years older than McGregor) but - due to his risk-averse, defensive style - has taken minimal physical damage over the course of his career and will come into this fight with a very clear hand and foot speed advantage over McGregor despite not being quite as agile or having quite the reflexes he had in his prime. Even at his age, one would expect that Mayweather has retained enough of his typically excellent timing, speed, and accuracy to land his patented left hook and straight right at will vs. a fighter in McGregor who has not only never boxed professionally before, but has never been known for his defensive prowess - even in the octagon.

Indeed, Mayweather almost certainly isn't the pound-for-pound level fighter he was in his prime but as recently as two years ago - in his late 30s - Mayweather was ranked #1 pound-for-pound in the world and decisively beat then-world champion (and future hall-of-famer) Manny Pacquiao to unify the welterweight titles. Four months later, Mayweather won all 12 rounds vs. a younger, former world champion in Andre Berto in what was his last fight before tomorrow's matchup with McGregor. Both Pacquiao and Berto would be decisively favored to beat McGregor if they fought him today.

Eight years ago after a similar long layoff from boxing (21 months) a 32-year old, past-prime Mayweather returned to the ring to dominate future first ballot hall-of-famer Juan Manuel Marquez, who at the time was ranked the #2 pound-for-pound fighter in the world (behind only Manny Pacquiao) by Ring Magazine. In tomorrow's fight he returns to fight an MMA fighter with no professional boxing experience.

Even stylistically, this is a very tough matchup for McGregor. In the UFC octagon McGregor is known as a counterpuncher - he does not have experience employing the aggressive, come-forward, high punch output style that has at times given Mayweather difficulty in previous fights (see his first fights vs. Jose Luis Castillo and Marcos Maidana). Employing a highly aggressive, brawling style would likely give McGregor his best chance to win the fight but using a style he's essentially never employed before (neither in the octagon nor the ring) is extremely risky vs. a highly experienced, skilled boxer like Mayweather. On the other hand, if McGregor sticks to his traditional counterpunching style, he'd essentially have to out counterpunch/outbox one of the greatest counterpunchers in the history of the sport. And do that in the first professional boxing match of his career.

The fact that Mayweather, a known control freak who - as the "A" side of all his recent fights - typically tailors even the minute details of his fights (e.g., size of the boxing ring, type of gloves, etc.) to his advantage, was willing to allow 8 oz. gloves (instead of the standard minimum 10 oz. gloves for weight divisions above 154 lbs) reveals how confident he is coming into this fight. Smaller gloves increase the impact of power punches - which in theory should be beneficial for a power puncher like McGregor who's had an impressive 18 of his 21 career MMA wins come by knockout - but the smaller gloves may be much more likelier to benefit the quicker, much more savvy Mayweather assuming he (as is expected in this matchup ) lands the cleaner punches at a much higher percentage.

McGregor is a southpaw known for his immense punching power and ability to throw effective punches from unpredictable angles. But Mayweather has experience fighting much more experienced and skilled boxers (i.e., former world champions) with many of those same traits (see his fights vs. Pacquiao, Maidana, and Zab Judah) and beaten those fighters decisively.

All indications are that McGregor has trained hard for this fight but he is known for having stamina issues in five-round MMA fights. It's difficult to imagine - no matter how hard he's trained over the past couple of months to improve endurance - that he won't experience stamina issues over the course of a 12-round fight (which I'll remind the reader yet again is his first ever professional boxing match) trying to chase down one of the most elusive boxers in the history of sport in terms of both foot and vertical body movement. I'd anticipate McGregor's legs and any meaningful KO punching power will significantly deteriorate by the middle rounds of the fight (if the fight even lasts that long) given Mayweather's skill at forcing his opponents to expend unnecessary energy chasing him around the ring.

Solid boxers who have sparred with McGregor (former minor world title holder Chris van Heerden last year and former two-division world champion Paulie Malignaggi a few weeks ago) were both unimpressed with McGregor's boxing skills and claim to have easily gotten the better of McGregor in sparring despite being relatively unprepared and relatively out of shape for the sparring sessions. Both fighters - neither of whom today would be considered on the level of a 40-year old Mayweather - would be strongly favored over McGregor if  they were fighting him this week. Most professional boxers - whether top-level or journeyman - would be favored to beat a fighter in McGregor who - as naturally talented as he is - has never boxed professionally before. A McGregor win over Mayweather this weekend would likely be the greatest upset in the history of professional sports (at least in terms of historical significance, if not pure magnitude).

Why Conor McGregor will win

McGregor has never boxed professionally but he actually does come into this fight with several advantages.

He is (by far) the younger fighter in this matchup and is in his prime facing a 40-year old fighter in Mayweather who hasn't fought professionally in nearly two years. As perhaps the greatest defensive fighter in the history of the sport Mayweather has taken minimal punishment in his career, but it's impossible to predict how much Mayweather's skills have declined given his age and the fact that he is coming off the longest layoff of his career. While still effective enough to decisively outpoint top-level opponents, Mayweather's speed, reflexes, power, etc. have noticeably deteriorated in recent fights. One can reasonably assume the skills of a 40-year old man who's spent nearly two years out of the ring have deteriorated even further - the big question in tomorrow's fight is... to what extent?

McGregor has never boxed professionally but is known to have excellent boxing skills for an MMA fighter. He's an aggressive counterpuncher with very good punching power (having had 18 of his 21 career victories coming by TKO/KO) and a seemingly granite chin. While not as fast as Mayweather, McGregor also moves well on his feet and possesses deceptive hand speed. McGregor is a southpaw who is adept at throwing power punches from awkward angles that can be difficult for opponents to time effectively.

McGregor has three losses in his MMA career but all three losses were the result of MMA submissions. McGregor has never been stopped from a boxing stance and has generally been dominant vs. MMA opponents from that position.

Though known as a counterpuncher in the octagon it is not known (given that he's never boxed professionally) what style he'll employ in Saturday's fight vs. Mayweather - i.e., whether he attempts to use his counterpunching abilities and range to outbox Mayweather in spots and possibly land big punches from distance or turn the fight into a physical brawl and outwork Mayweather from inside (a style he could be surprisingly effective at given his extensive grappling experience from MMA). McGregor's size advantage, notable punching power, awkward offensive attack, and the fact that it will be very difficult for Mayweather to effectively prepare for McGregor's style (given that this is McGregor's first pro boxing match - thus doesn't have an established boxing style) underscores the legitimate "puncher's chance" he has vs. an aging, slowing Mayweather who has had problems in previous fights vs. unpredictable fighters who throw power punches effectively from awkward angles (e.g., multiple stretches of his fights with Pacquiao and Maidana).

McGregor is the naturally bigger fighter (having fought as high as 170 lbs in MMA competition, most notably in his majority decision victory vs. Nate Diaz) with a slight height and 2" reach advantage. Throughout his career, Mayweather has noticeably avoided similarly built fighters (i.e., taller, rangier, maybe a bit bigger - see Paul Williams, Antonio Margarito, and Amir Khan who each called him out repeatedly to no avail) who possess effective punching ability. Fighters with these traits pose arguably the most dangerous threat to his defensively-oriented, relatively low-output style where he is usually able to exploit a reach advantage to control fights with a long jab and elusive movement. Depending on how far Mayweather's skills have deteriorated, there is a chance McGregor could control certain spots in the fight getting physical with Mayweather, using his size advantage and high punch output to outwork Floyd (as Joe Horn effectively did last month in his massive upset of Pacquiao).

Last week, the Nevada State Athletic Commission unanimously approved use of 8 oz. gloves for Saturday's fight - a one-time exception from the long-standing requirement that 10 oz. gloves be used for fights contested above 147 lbs. The smaller gloves (and resultant smaller padding surrounding the core of the gloves) naturally increases  the likelihood that McGregor - a very good power puncher (at least by MMA standards) who will likely come into this fight weighing 10-15 lbs more than Mayweather - can land that one big punch (or series of big punches) necessary for a TKO/KO victory. (Though it should be noted that the smaller glove size increases Mayweather's chances of winning by TKO/KO as well.)

Despite this fight taking place in Las Vegas, the city where Mayweather has lived and trained for over 20 years and fought his last 14 fights, the crowd at the T-Mobile Arena (which will include many of the thousands of fans who have already flown over from Ireland to watch the fight) is expected to overwhelmingly favor McGregor - which could provide a confidence boost for the Irish fighter inside the ring and perhaps influence the judges' scoring outside the ring if there happen to be close rounds.

But even without the enthusiastic crowd support he's expected to receive, McGregor is is a highly confident fighter who genuinely believes he will win this fight. Less than five years ago, McGregor made his UFC debut as an unheralded prospect; within a couple of years he became a UFC world champion and the biggest name in mixed martial arts. McGregor has defied odds in the past - if he can catch momentum early in the fight and Mayweather's skills have deteriorated more than expected, it's within reason that his confidence and fighting spirit could keep him competitive and give him a chance to pull off a massive upset.

Prefight Analysis

Yes- McGregor does have a puncher's chance to win this fight. He's the (much) younger fighter in this matchup, facing a 40-year old fighter in Mayweather who - while certainly one of the all-time greats - hasn't fought in nearly two years and showed signs of slippage in his fights prior to his layoff. There's a popular saying about Father Time being undefeated and the fact is no one really knows to what extent Mayweather's skills have deteriorated in his time away from the ring.

McGregor is the naturally bigger fighter - having fought regularly in the UFC at 155 lbs and at weights as high as 170 lbs - and is expected to come into tomorrow's fight with at least a 10-15 lb weight advantage over Mayweather, who has only fought at 154 lbs twice in his career (in wins vs. Oscar De La Hoya and Miguel Cotto). In terms of physical traits (i.e., taller fighter with good reach and punching power), McGregor is exactly the type of fighter Mayweather avoided even in the prime of his career and - unlike essentially every other opponent in Floyd's career - will be nearly impossible to prepare well for given that he's never boxed professionally.

McGregor's unpredictable tactics and MMA-proven ability to throw highly effective power punches
(particularly with his left hand) from awkward angles is a key advantage. If McGregor can land even one solid shot vs. the 40-year old former champion, you never know how that could turn the fight. Given the higher weight class (than what Mayweather is accustomed to) and McGregor's seemingly solid chin (plus the fact that McGregor really has nothing to lose given that this is his first professional boxing match and is not expected to win this fight), I expect McGregor to take some big risks and land at least a few clean punches in exchanging with Mayweather... the question is how clean will those punches land and to what extent will those punches affect Mayweather? McGregor has enough physical advantages in this fight as to where he does have a legitimate "puncher's chance" to win this fight.

But a "puncher's chance" is very literally the only chance McGregor has to win this fight. My assessment of fight is that it is one of the most lopsided matchups (and mispriced bets) in the history of mainstream professional sports. (The mispricing here is due in large part to the number of MMA and casual sports fans looking for a big return on investment by betting on McGregor.) The reality of this fight is you have one of the all-time boxing greats in Mayweather - statistically perhaps the most dominant boxer ever who has taken minimal punishment in his career and, while not the boxer he was in his prime, is still likely capable of winning major world titles in the sport -  vs. a fighter in McGregor who has never boxed before (and has limited experience even at the amateur level).

This fight is a "mismatch" in the purest sense of the word and, with Floyd as only a 6-1 favorite, is grossly mispriced. (I'd honestly grade McGregor as somewhere between a 33-1 and 99-1 underdog consistent with the 1-3% chance I give him of winning this fight.) It's beyond absurd, for example, that McGregor - as an approximately 5-1 underdog - is a smaller underdog vs. an undefeated Mayweather than former world champions in boxing like Berto (as high as 50-1), Maidana (as high as 14-1), and Robert Guerrero (as high as 9-1) - all of whom were talented, highly-skilled, world-class boxers who spent the majority of their lives honing their boxing craft to earn their shot vs. Mayweather.

Despite being 40 years old and the smaller guy, Mayweather comes into this fight with a virtually infinite advantage in boxing experience (given that he is facing a fighter with zero professional boxing experience) and is expected to have a clear advantage in speed, quickness, and skill. Conor has experience boxing under MMA rules, but MMA is an entirely different sport with different rules (and thus a different strategy construct).

There is a reason even the most talented and skilled boxers are brought up slowly in the first phase of their professional careers; lack of experience can result in even gifted boxers taking a loss vs. less skilled (but more experienced) talent (see pound-for-pound ranked Vasyl Lomachenko's loss to Orlando Salido in 2014 as a recent example). McGregor is a very good boxer by MMA standards but does not come close to approaching the talent of Lomachenko (or likely even the talent of the journeymen Mayweather fought in the early and middle stages of his career for that matter); while not clearly quantifiable, the experience gap is - in my opinion - by far the biggest advantage Mayweather has in this fight, never mind his historically great talents and skill.

I believe, far and away, that the most likely outcome of this fight is Mayweather by TKO/KO (and quite frankly would be very surprised and consider it a massive disappointment for Mayweather if he doesn't stop McGregor). Once Mayweather develops a read and gets comfortable with McGregor's style he should be able to land at will on McGregor, given the Irish fighter's overall raw inexperience and inexperience with basic defensive boxing fundamentals. I think Mayweather by TKO/KO at any price up to -200 is likely the best value bet for this matchup (though this bet can currently be found as low as -150).

But given Mayweather's age, brittle hands, and risk-averse boxing style I'm more inclined to take the virtually "sure" outcome and place the majority of my bet on simply Mayweather to win (which currently can be found as low as -500). Again, the current value on Mayweather might be the best value (outside of accidental mispricing) I've ever seen in my entire time betting on sports; bankroll management and the possibility of McGregor landing a lucky punch or a 40-year old Mayweather suffering a freak injury during the fight are literally the only reasons why I wouldn't risk at least 90% of my bankroll on Mayweather to win. As it is, I am content risking over 15% of my bankroll betting on Mayweather to win (and a smaller amount on the most likely specific outcome of Mayweather by TKO/KO).

Should be an entertaining event, though not necessarily an entertaining fight!

Prediction: Mayweather by TKO/KO/DQ

Recommended bets: 
1) Mayweather to win (3 units) 
2) Mayweather by TKO/KO/DQ (.5 unit)

Follow @mouzonebrother  for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!

Canelo vs. Chavez Jr.: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Follow @mouzonebrother

Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (48-1-1 34 KOs) vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (50-2-1, 32 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 6, 2017
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs - though fight is being fought at a catchweight of 164.5 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez: -545, Chavez: +465 (5 Dimes, 5/6/17)
Purse: Alvarez: $5 million, Chavez: $3 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #8 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Chavez: Not ranked
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Chavez: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

This fight might be the most anticipated (and most hyped) matchup between two Mexican boxers in the history of the sport - it's certainly is the most anticipated matchup between two boxers of Mexican heritage since the first Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. vs. Oscar De La Hoya fight back in 1996.

Canelo - considered by many one of the best pound-for-pound boxers in the sport - is currently the most popular boxer in Mexico (not to mention probably the top PPV attraction in all of boxing right now) and attracts Superbowl-like ratings in his home country every time he fights. (Most notably his 2013 fight vs. Floyd Mayweather, which we received the highest rating for a boxing event in the history of Mexican television with nearly 80 percent of televisions in Mexico tuned in to see the fight.) Chavez is the son (and namesake) of the most - never mind boxer - athlete in the history of Mexico in Julio Cesar Chavez Sr., a former six-time world champion in three weight classes who is considered by most to be the greatest Mexican boxer of all time. On name alone, Chavez has been a wildly popular boxer in his home country and is still one of the biggest draws in boxing even today - despite not looking particularly impressive in recent fights.

A few years ago this fight could've potentially been promoted as a mega fight but as it stands now the fight is still one of the top 3 or 4 fights between active boxers that could've been made in terms of expected revenue generation.

At -545, Canelo is the strong favorite, but the 164.5 catchweight in this fight nearly 10 pounds higher than any weight limit he's fought at previously. If Canelo wins this fight at this higher weight -particularly if he wins convincingly - the fight that looms more than ever before would be the highly anticipated matchup with middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin. (There would be zero excuses for avoiding a matchup with Golovkin at 160 lbs after defeating Chavez at 164.5 lbs - though the fight may be more appealing to Canelo at this point anyway given Golovkin's troubles in his narrow victory last March vs. Danny Jacobs.)

But if Chavez, whose reputation amongst Mexican and non-Mexican boxing fans alike has diminished considerably due to lackluster performances in recent years (which included a stoppage loss to Andrzej Fonfara in 2015 in which Chavez quit in the 9th round shortly after getting knocked down) and his perceived lack of work ethic, pulls off the upset his tarnished reputation would largely be redeemed and his popularity would receive an enormous boost - likely setting up big PPV fights for him in the near future.

This also happens to be a fight between the only two Mexican-born fighters to have won middleweight world championships. There is a genuine dislike between the two Mexican opponents so this is a fight both will desperately be trying to win - not only for the legacy achieved in winning what is arguably the biggest fight in the history of Mexican boxing but for the satisfaction of one-upping the other in what has become a very bitter and personal rivalry.

Why Canelo Alvarez will win

Despite this fight being contested at a 164.5-lb catchweight, Canelo is actually the current WBO light middleweight (154 lbs) champion and is widely considered one of the best boxers pound-for-pound in the sport. Canelo has held world titles in two weight divisions (light middleweight and middleweight), including being a former unified light middleweight champion, as well as being the lineal and WBC middleweight champion in recent years before vacating the title. The only loss of Canelo's professional career came in 2013 vs. pound-for-pound legend Floyd Mayweather Jr., who is considered by most to be the best boxer of this generation.

Canelo is a solid favorite in this matchup vs. Chavez for a multitude of straightforward reasons. By observation of nearly everyone who follows the sport closely, Canelo is the more talented, more technically skilled, more accurate punching, and higher IQ boxer with faster hands, superior footwork, and better defensive abilities. Canelo is an elite A/A- level boxer in the prime of his career (and seemingly still improving a bit with each fight) facing a fighter in Chavez who, at 31 years old (4.5 years older than Canelo), appears to be past his prime and has never in his career even come close to proving he has the elite-level skills of his revered father.  

Canelo has fought mostly at light middleweight (154 lbs) in recent years but he is a big light middleweight whose power should translate fine to the 164.5 catchweight. Although known as a big puncher (Canelo's won 3 out of his last for fights by KO and has a career KO% of 68%), Canelo is an intelligent, patient boxer who - per CompuBox statistics - is one of the most efficient fighters in the sport. Canelo sets up and throws combination punches very well and is an excellent body puncher - one shouldn't be at all surprised if the largely flat-footed, defensively suspect Chavez presents a fairly easy target for Canelo's offensive attack for much of the fight. Note that Chavez's height (6'1") may prove to be a disadvantage in this fight as it will likely provide the 5'9" Canelo a larger body frame to target, particularly when fighting inside. (Shorter fighters also often have easier angles from which to attack the body when facing taller fighters, who may find it awkward to have to punch down to target their shorter opponent.)

Despite being widely criticized for possibly avoiding a potential fight with feared power puncher Gennady Golovkin (which included being ridiculed by some of his own Mexican fanbase), Canelo has - at just 26 years of age - amassed one of the more impressive resumes in boxing, having fought (and beaten) elite and/or high profile former world champions such as Amir Khan, Miguel Cotto, Erislandy Lara, Shane Mosley, and Austin Trout. (This is in addition to fighting undefeated and pound-for-pound #1 Floyd Mayweather when he was only 23 years old.) Chavez's resume is sketchy in comparison, with his only fight vs. an A-level opponent coming in his September 2012 unanimous decision loss to Sergio Martinez, a fight which was not competitive (and which he arguably lost every round) until the 12th round when he knocked down and nearly stopped Martinez. Chavez's best win came immediately prior to the Martinez fight in a TKO victory vs. Andy Lee, a B-level fighter with good power, but whose skills aren't on the same level as Canelo's. (It should be noted that Chavez was losing the fight to Lee on all three judges' scorecards at the time of the stoppage.)

Chavez is the bigger, more physically imposing fighter who has experience fighting at a weight limit exceeding 170 lbs in the light heavyweight division but he has a plodding, relatively straightforward fighting style that likely won't be difficult for Canelo to anticipate; Canelo's defensive footwork and upper body movement are deceptively slick and have improved significantly since the early stages of his career.

As a big light middleweight, Canelo is expected to adjust to the 164.5 catchweight just fine; Chavez, who has a well documented history of failing to make weight at limits as high as 168 lbs, may experience weight-drain issues which may significantly affect his performance Saturday night.

Saturday's fight, considered one of the biggest in the history of Mexican boxing, will take place on Cinco de Mayo weekend in a sold out T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas in front of mostly Mexican-American and Mexican fans. Although Chavez Jr. is still a very popular Mexican boxer, the crowd is expected to be largely pro-Canelo, which could influence the fight inside the ring as well as the judges' scoring outside the ring. Judges' scorecards in Canelo fights have tended to strongly favor Canelo - even in fights considered close by the general public. (See the scoring in Canelo's recent competitive fights vs. Cotto, Lara, and Austin Trout as examples.) Even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw; so if this fight ends up being much more competitive than expected (which could happen if, for example, Canelo doesn't carry the extra weight as well as expected) don't be at all surprised to see the fight still scored comfortably for Canelo. 

Why Julio Cesar Chavez will win

Chavez comes into tonight's fight as a significant (+465) underdog but there are solid reasons to believe he can be very competitive and perhaps pull off the upset vs. Canelo.

Chavez is the naturally bigger fighter and has (much) more experience at weights exceeding the 154 lb light middleweight limit than Canelo. (Chavez is expected to come into tonight's fight 15-20 lbs heavier than Canelo.) Chavez's size combined with his solid power could prove to be a bit much for the smaller Canelo, whose own power - which is amongst the best at 154 lbs - may not carry up to the 164.5 lb catchweight limit as well as most expect. This will be the first fight of Canelo's professional career above a 155 lb weight limit; given the nearly 10 pound jump in weight, Canelo's skill and hand speed advantages may not be able to overcome the size disparity, especially given that Canelo - who is a bit flat-footed - will have to fight toe-to-toe at close range vs. Chavez's inside pressure-fighting style for large stretches of the fight.

Chavez is an aggressive, come-forward fighter with good power at middleweight. Like his father, Chavez is a very good (and relentless) fighter on the inside, particularly to the body where left hooks and right uppercuts are his most effective punches. Despite the criticism of his work ethic outside of the ring, Chavez has a good work rate inside the ring and possesses good stamina, whereas Canelo is known for sometimes taking rounds off and tiring in the later rounds of fights. One has to wonder whether Canelo's power and skill will be effective at the higher weight or if the larger Chavez be able to wear him down in the later rounds behind a body attack from close range.

Chavez doesn't possess the all-time great talent or skills of his legendary father, but many underrate him as a fighter. Chavez is a former WBC middleweight champion who has beaten former middleweight champions such as Andy Lee, Marco Antonio Rubio, and Sebastian Zbik. Again, Chavez's most impressive victory was likely his 7th round TKO victory vs. Lee, who no one ould consider an elite fighter, but is currently rated a top 5 middleweight in the world by Ring Magazine and BoxRec.com. Chavez's only two losses of his professional career came in 2012 vs. then #3 pound-for-pound fighter Sergio Martinez and in 2015 vs. Andrzej Fonfara in a light heavyweight division fight that was two weight classes above his normal fighting weight.

Chavez's defense has been suspect but he may still have one of the better chins in boxing. Two years ago, Chavez suffered the only knockdown (and ensuing stoppage loss) of his career vs. Fonfara (a fighter with a non-impressive 50% TKO/KO percentage), but that was in his first and only fight at light heavyweight - two weight divisions above the middleweight division he has fought in for nearly his entire career. (Prior to this loss, Chavez's chin was considered to be one of the elite chins in boxing.) Canelo has excellent power at light middleweight but it remains to be seen how well that power carries up to the 164.5 catchweight for this fight; Chavez was stopped for the first time in his career vs. a light heavyweight in Fonfara but I expect his chin to hold up well vs. Canelo, who - despite the power and accuracy with which he throws punches - is a bit small relative to Fonfara,

Chavez is being trained in this fight by legendary trainer Nacho Beristain, a 2006 International Boxing Hall of Fame inductee who has trained 27 world champions, including Ricardo Lopez, Juan Manuel Marquez, Oscar De La Hoya, and Abner Mares. This is Chavez's first fight training under Beristain; it is expected that Beristain will be able to correct at least some of Chavez's technical flaws and concoct a game plan that has a chance of keeping Chavez competitive in the fight. Chavez is also using Memo Heredia as his strength and conditioning coach; Heredia is noted for assisting Juan Manuel Marquez and Jorge Arce in regaining world championship titles in their 30s (most notably Marquez after his 6th round KO of Manny Pacquiao in December 2012).

Overall, Canelo holds nearly all of the advantages related to skill and athleticism, but Chavez is the bigger fighter (in terms of not only size but 5" height advantage and 3" reach advantage) who at his best is very effective at wearing smaller opponents down with pressure and a relentless body attack. Canelo is almost certainly the superior boxer pound-for-pound but the nearly 10-pound jump in weight for this fight might be Canelo biting off a bit more than he can chew.

Prefight Analysis

I think Chavez has a better chance at winning this fight than most think. Canelo is big in size for the light middleweight division he's fought in for most of his career but the nearly 10 lb jump in weight for this fight (which effectively amounts to a one and a half weight class jump) to fight at 164.5 pounds for the first time in his career vs. a tough fighter in Chavez - who has much more experience fighting in this weight range and may come into tonight's fight 15-20 pounds heavier than Canelo - is a daunting task.

Canelo is the more skilled fighter for sure, but he's been bigger and stronger than just about every opponent he's faced in his professional career. That won't be the case Saturday night vs. an opponent in Chavez who will come in several pounds heavier, have the clear height and reach advantage, and arguably has comparable power at the higher weight.

Chavez's size combined with a solid chin - along with what appears to be a renewed sense of work ethic and discipline for this huge fight (unlike many of his recent fights Chavez easily made weight for this fight and most reports indicate he's trained as hard as he's ever trained for a fight under new trainer Beristain) make him a tough nut to crack in this matchup. You'd have to question whether Canelo can effectively pressure a larger fighter with a good chin who will come into the fight as essentially a cruiserweight (i.e., is expected to come into the fight at between 180-190 lbs on fight night) - especially given Canelo's patient, relatively low-output style and tendency to slow down a bit in the later rounds.

It wouldn't be all that surprising to see a motivated Chavez - who really is fighting for his legacy and to salvage his tarnished reputation - wear down the smaller, somewhat flat-footed Canelo in the later rounds with an accumulation of body punches. Chavez has tended to have problems in previous fights with fighters who move well and box effectively on their feet - Canelo is a non-elusive fighter who will be right in front of Chavez for significant stretches of the fight.

But I think the skill and talent disparity between Canelo and Chavez is too great to pick Chavez here. Canelo is a legitimate elite pound-for-pound fighter in the prime of his career who, at 26 years old, is only getting better while Chavez is elite in name only and, at 31 years old, possibly has his best days behind him. Canelo's power may not be as effective as expected at the higher weight class but his hand speed, accuracy, and overall boxing skills are such that it would be very surprising if he didn't outbox and outpoint the slower, defensively-flawed Chavez. (I'd expect Chavez to essentially be target practice for an efficient power puncher like Canelo - especially in the early and middle rounds.
Chavez is the bigger fighter who is particularly effective at fighting inside, but I think Canelo's defense (which has improved throughout his career and seems to still be improving) vs. Chavez's slower, somewhat predictable attack will be good enough to largely mitigate Chavez's size advantage.

I see Canelo landing mostly at will and decisively outpointing Chavez in this fight - the only question is whether Canelo's power will be effective enough at the higher weight class to get the stoppage. Here, I do think Chavez's size advantage, sturdy chin, and strong desire not to embarrass himself in front of the hundreds of millions of Mexican fans who will be watching the fight - along with Canelo's tendency to tire in later rounds - will result in Chavez lasting the distance. Chavez has only been stopped once by a light heavyweight (Fonfara) in a fight he didn't appear prepared for; I don't think the middleweight-sized Canelo will get the stoppage here.

Given that I think there is a strong probability Chavez lasts the distance I think the best value on this fight is betting Canelo to win by 12-round decision, currently priced at +150 (or, preferably, Canelo to win by 12-round unanimous decision if you can find that bet). I see Chavez lasting the full 12 rounds but ultimately don't see his size advantage and ability to break down opponents inside overcoming Canelo's efficient punching and fairly significant advantages in skill, athleticism, and boxing IQ.

Either way I'll be at this fight and am looking forward to (what should be a super-electric) atmosphere almost as much as the fight itself!!!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bet:
Canelo by decision (1.5 units)

Follow @mouzonebrother  for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!

Ward vs. Kovalev: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Follow @mouzonebrother

Fight: Andre Ward (30-0, 15 KOs) vs. Sergey Kovalev (30-0-1, 26 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 19, 2016
Weight class: Light Heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA, IBF, and WBO Light Heavyweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Ward -165, Kovalev +155 (5 Dimes, 11/19/16)
Purse: Ward: $5 million, Kovalev: $2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Ward: #4 ranked pound-for-pound, #4 ranked light heavyweight; Kovalev: #2 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked light heavyweight
Style: Ward: Orthodox, Kovalev: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Why you should watch this fight

Neither fighter is very well known to sports fans who don't follow boxing closely, but to hardcore boxing fans this is without question the most anticipated fight of the year. This is only the third time in boxing history that two undefeated, Ring Magazine top five pound-for-pound boxers will face each other (other two times were Oscar De La Hoya vs. Felix Trinidad in 1999 and Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. vs. Meldrick Taylor in 1990). We have an Olympic gold medal-winning, master-class technician who hasn't lost a professional or amateur fight since he was 12 years old in Andre Ward moving up in weight to fight Sergey Kovalev, who along with Gennady "GGG" Golovkin is one of the two most feared power punchers in boxing with (very) underrated technical boxing skills and a cold-blooded killer instinct (after all, he has literally killed a man in the ring) to match potentially all-time great power.   

This is a classic matchup between a pure boxer in Ward - who many would say is one of the best boxers of this generation and could go down as one of the best boxers of all-time - vs. arguably the best power puncher in boxing in Kovalev. It is highly likely that the winner of this fight  between two future likely hall-of-famers will be widely considered the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport going forward.

Why Andre Ward will win

Although he's been relatively inactive over the past half decade (having fought an average of roughly once a year over this time period), Ward is still widely considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport (if not the best). He's an undefeated, master technician who hasn't lost a fight in his professional or amateur career since he was 12 years old. Ward went through an extended stretch in his career where the quality of his opposition was as tough as any other boxer (most notably Showtime's Super Six World Boxing Classic tournament where he faced the likes of former world champions Carl Froch, Mikkel Kessler, and Arthur Abraham in their primes) and still won all of those fights with ease by wide margins. If Ward retired today, he would go down as one of the great super middleweight boxers of all time.

Ward is a technically brilliant, extremely versatile boxer who fights superbly both inside and from distance. Especially on the inside, many would consider Ward the best in the sport; he is adept at using his unmatched combination of athleticism, strength, and ring intelligence to smother and wear opponents down from close distance. This may serve him very well vs. Kovalev, who has shown susceptibility to getting hit to the body from inside and has a tendency to drop his guard when getting hit in that area.

Ward is a highly accurate lead puncher and counterpuncher who also fights very well from range; Ward is adept at throwing well-timed jabs (particularly from his dominant left hand) and is effective from fighting from either an orthodox or southpaw stance.

Whether fighting from range or inside, Ward has excellent footwork which he's used along with his physical strength and superior skills to dominate the pace of every fight he's ever fought in as a pro. Even Jean Pascal and Isaac Chilemba had success in spots landing vs. a defensively mediocre Kovalev (who's head movement at times is nonexistent) so Ward - who has a clear speed advantage in this matchup -  should be able to consistently land cleanly and outbox Kovalev if he can withstand or otherwise mitigate Kovalev's punching power.

Ward is an instinctual, very high IQ fighter who appears to be on the level of a Floyd Mayweather or Bernard Hopkins in terms of ability to read and adjust to his opponent's boxing style. Kovalev is an underrated technician who a couple of years ago gave (a 49 year-old but still very crafty) Hopkins by far the worst defeat of his career but Ward is the more intelligent and savvy boxer in this matchup.

Ward is also an elusive, defensively gifted fighter - even on the inside where he has an uncanny ability to dodge and counter power punches from close range. If Ward can keep this fight on the inside (where Kovalev is somewhat unproven and will have less success getting adding leverage to his punches), one would have to strongly favor Ward over the course of 12 rounds.

Although Ward has been relatively inactive in recent years and suffered through multiple injuries (including a debilitating, career-threatening right shoulder injury), at 32 years old Ward is arguably still in his prime and is actually the younger fighter in the matchup vs. a 33 year-old Kovalev.

Ward is moving up in weight to fight one of the most feared power punchers in the sport but he does have a very respectable chin, having been knocked down only once in his professional career (vs. Darnell Boone in the 7th fight of his career when he was only 21 years old). 

Minus the ultra-quick reflexes, Ward is arguably Mayweather-level in terms of boxing skill, ring IQ, and athleticism; *if* he can withstand Kovalev's power (which is obviously a major if), it's extremely difficult to not envision him outboxing Kovalev - who looked unimpressive in his most recent fight vs. Chilemba - over 12 rounds.

Why Sergey Kovalev will win

Like Ward, Kovalev is also undefeated and is the unified WBA, IBF, and IBO light heavyweight champion of the world. Kovalev is widely considered - along with fellow Soviet Gennady Golovkin - one of the top two power punchers in boxing today. Kovalev is a devastating puncher with outstanding power in both hands (complimented with excellent balance allowing him to get full leverage on many of his punches) to the extent where he doesn't necessarily have to land cleanly for opponents to feel his power. Of Kovalev's 30 wins, 26 (86.7%) have come by TKO/KO. Kovalev is on course to go down as one of the better power punchers in the history of the sport; as skilled as Ward is (and he is considered by many the most skilled fighter in boxing today) just one clean power punch landed by Kovalev could easily change the course of the fight.

Although primarily known as a power puncher, Kovalev is an very underrated technician who has proven time and again he has the world class boxing skills to match his punching power. Kovalev is a stalking, yet patient fighter who doesn't waste punches. He is a very efficient, highly accurate puncher who throws both jabs and combinations well and has an excellent straight right hand. When punching, Kovalev uses angles well and is effective at throwing leaping lead hooks from distance, which makes him somewhat unpredictable in his offensive attack. Kovalev is also a brutal body puncher, one of the best in the sport; even a defensively gifted Ward may have trouble stopping some of those body punches from landing when fighting inside.

Ward is considered a master technician but Kovalev has already faced and thoroughly outboxed another master technician in Bernard Hopkins - knocking Hopkins down once (in the 1st round of their fight) and winning all 12 rounds on all three judges scorecards after Hopkins went into survival mode after the knockdown. Kovalev does not have quite the experience nor has he faced the quality of opposition Ward has but - in addition to Hopkins - in recent years he's faced top-level opposition in former world champions Jean Pascal (twice), Nathan Cleverly, Gabriel Campillo, and Chilemba; with the exception of Chilemba all were soundly defeated by TKO/KO.

A key advantage Kovalev has is that this fight is taking place in the light heavyweight (175 lbs) division, a division where Kovalev has fought nearly his entire career and been champion for over three years. Ward was big and physically strong for a super middleweight (168 lbs) but he's moving up to fight at 175 pounds for only the third time in his career - the previous two being somewhat unimpressive unanimous decision victories vs. journeymen Alexander Brand and Sullivan Barrera - to face a fighter in Kovalev who has been dominant at that weight class for several years. There are *huge* question marks as to how well Ward's noted physical, clinching tactics inside will fare vs. a bigger opponent at a higher weight class and how well his respectable (though certainly not as devastating as Kovalev's) power carries up to light heavyweight.

Although slightly younger than Kovalev, Ward has been relatively inactive in recent years (due to multiple injuries and legal battles) and has looked somewhat rusty in recent fights; at 32 years old it may very easily be the case that Ward may not be the same quality of fighter at this point in his career as he was a few years ago when he was considered the #2 boxer pound-for-pound behind only Floyd Mayweather. In one of Ward's most recent fights, Barrera did have some success landing power punches with his right hand. And while Ward is known to be outstanding defensively, he is susceptible at times to getting hit given his proclivity for fighting from close distance. If Ward truly has lost a step and looks as rusty as he has in recent fights at 175, one would have to think Kovalev's power has a good chance of getting the stoppage within a 12 round fight where Ward will likely put himself within punching distance for large stretches.

Kovalev is not only (by far) the best puncher Ward has faced in his career - a career in which Ward has been knocked down and in trouble before against a lesser puncher in a lower weight class - he is also the most skilled boxer Ward has ever faced. Many have claimed Kovalev can not outbox Ward over 12 rounds - which may be true from a purely technical standpoint - but with Kovalev's combination of overwhelming power and underrated technical skill, it would not be surprising to see him win this fight by stoppage or by clear decision.

Prefight Analysis

So this fight is as difficult as any fight I've tried to predict on multiple levels. One one level it's difficult to say which style will prevail tonight - the technically superior, more experienced, master class in Ward with the clear hand and foot speed advantage who hasn't even come close to losing a fight since he was a preteen - or the elite power punching and very underrated boxing skill of a similarly undefeated Kovalev, who is the current unified champion and is defending his titles within his natural weight class. On another level it's equally difficult to predict which version of each of these boxers will show up tonight. Despite winning easily, Ward hasn't looked particularly impressive in recent bouts vs. B-level opponents, while Kovalev was also unimpressive and looked frustrated in spots during his most recent fight vs. Chilemba. The outcome of this fight will of course largely depend on which of these fighters is closer to their "A" game Saturday night.

As many boxing pundits have pointed out, this is as close to a true 50/50 as it gets with the level of skill and clash of styles involved in this matchup. I'll admit that I'm personally rooting for Ward - a highly intelligent boxer with strong moral character who has always carried himself with class - to win this fight.  If this was prime, vintage Andre Ward and/or we were dealing with a weight-drained Kovalev fighting Ward at Ward's usual 168-lb weight (a la a weight-drained Chad Dawson in his 2012 fight with Ward), I'd (perhaps strongly) favor Ward's technical superiority, speed, and inside fighting ability over Kovalev's overwhelming power.

But there are three key reasons why I - despite personally rooting for Ward - very slightly favor Kovalev in this matchup:

1) This fight is taking place at light heavyweight (175 lbs), not at super middleweight (168 lbs). This fight is at Kovalev's natural weight class - a weight class Ward moved up to just this year and has looked less than impressive in vs. forgettable opposition. This is only Ward's 3rd fight at 175 lbs, a weight class Kovalev has dominated for several years. I have doubts as to whether Ward will be able to impose his physical will - which he does so easily at 168 lbs - inside vs. a stronger, deadly power puncher like Kovalev at 175. I think Ward will find that he's in for a different fight vs. an elite 175-pound fighter than he's used to vs. elite 168-pound fighters. At 175 lbs, there is a question of how he will be able to handle the power of a true light heavyweight power puncher (who happens to be one of the top two power punchers in boxing) and how well Ward's own power at 168 lbs carries up to 175 lbs. The extra weight may also slow Ward down a bit, making him less fleet of foot. Ward is a big super middleweight who may have been outgrowing the 168 lb weight class anyway but the fact that this fight is taking place at 175 lbs is a clear advantage for Kovalev.

2) Ward is more likely than Kovalev to be off his game. Neither fighter has looked especially impressive in recent fights so it's tough to predict which version of each fighter will show up tonight. But I think Kovalev is a bit more likely to bring his top-level game than Ward. Although Ward is actually slightly younger than Kovalev, Ward has been relatively inactive (having fought only four times in the past four years), endured multiple surgeries (some to alleviate potentially career-threatening injuries), and - judging by his recent fights this year - seems to have lost a step from the pound-for-pound #2 Ward that dominated the Super Six World Boxing Classic tournament a few years ago. It's possible that this is simply Ward shaking off rust from inactivity, but it's also possible that this 32-year old version of Ward - after all the injuries and multiple extended layoffs - just isn't quite the fighter he used to be in his mid-twenties. If Ward is no longer the same A+-level performer we've come to expect from the Super Six World Boxing Classic fights and from his fight with Chad Dawson, then Kovalev certainly has a much greater chance of pulling off an upset at a weight class Ward still appears to be getting accustomed to.

3) Ward will likely stay within range of Kovalev's power for significant stretches of the fight. Ward has a very respectable chin (having been knocked down only once in his professional career) but Kovalev is by far the most effective power puncher he's faced in his career with significantly more power than he's used to facing at 168 lbs. Ward likes to fight from close range inside - which often works to smother an opponent's punches and mitigate power  - but the close range will nevertheless give Kovalev ample opportunity to setup his (usually lethal) offensive attack to the body and head. All it would take is one clean punch from Kovalev over the course of 12 rounds to change the fight; if Ward stays within punching range as expected I believe Kovalev will be effective enough to land multiple shots and at times overwhelm Ward with his power.

Even at this stage of his career Ward is such a gifted, crafty fighter that it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he ended up heavily frustrating Kovalev with elusiveness and skill and won every round of the fight. Ward is, in my opinion, a historically great talent who certainly has the ability to outbox Kovalev. But I believe this version of Ward isn't quite the same Ward we remember from a few years ago and that Kovalev - who possesses high-level technical skills in his own right (skills that are being overlooked and underrated by many) - will catch and overwhelm Ward with his power at this weight class.

The question if Kovalev wins this fight is whether he wins by his customary stoppage or by decision. Kovalev's most recent fight vs. Chilemba -  a fighter in many ways similar in style to Ward - went the full 12 rounds. Kovalev's fight a couple of years ago vs. master boxing technician Hopkins also ended in a 12-round decision. Ward is certainly crafty and elusive enough to last 12 rounds (as Chilemba and Hopkins did) if he chooses; but - unlike Chilemba or Hopkins - I don't see Ward retreating and fighting off his back foot in this matchup. Ward has much more of a proclivity than those two fighters to attack inside and I think he will stick with that tactic - even at the risk of getting knocked out. (Kovalev's power is also greater from distance which I think will further encourage Ward to get past Kovalev's stiff jab and stay inside for stretches in an attempt to somewhat mitigate his power.) But I think Ward's close range tactics will provide ample opportunities for Kovalev to pepper Ward with power punches and get the stoppage.

At almost 2.5-1 odds, I think Kovalev by TKO/KO (+249) is the best bet for this fight. But given the unpredictability of this clash of styles and given Ward's technical superiority and still elite skills, I would hedge this bet with an equal amount of money on Ward by 12 round decision - which can still be found at approximately even money (+100) odds. Certainly looking forward to this fight!!!  

Prediction: Kovalev to win

Recommended bets: 1) Kovalev by TKO/KO (1 unit)
2) Ward by 12 round decision (1 unit)

Follow @mouzonebrother  for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!