Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
Date: December 14, 2013
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA World Welterweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Broner -440, Maidana +350 (5 Dimes, 12/14/13)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Adrien Broner - #9 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked lightweight, #6 ranked welterweight), Maidana - unranked
Style: Broner: Orthodox, Maidana: Orthodox
Positives for Broner
- Ring Magazine #9 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport. Undefeated fighter with excellent agility, hand speed, and foot speed. Highly talented boxer who, at 24 years old, is already a 3-division world champion. Currently in the prime of his career.
- Slick, versatile technician who is adept at both counter punching and being aggressive, cutting off the ring vs. his opponents.
- Low-volume at times but very efficient, accurate puncher with good KO power in both hands. (22 of his 27 wins have come by KO.)
- One of the best defensive fighters in boxing. Adept with both the shoulder roll and high guard defense. Almost Floyd Mayweather-like in his ability to stay in the pocket and use his defensive skills to make his opponents miss. Slips and rolls punches very well. Difficult fighter to hit cleanly.
- High IQ boxer who is good at making technical adjustments in the ring over the course of the fight.
- Excellent at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Throws very accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body.
Negatives for Broner
- Relatively untested. Paulie Malignaggi and Daniel Ponce de Leon have been his only tough opponents to date.
- Low-volume puncher who is prone to getting out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. (This was the case in his last two fights vs. Malignaggi and Gavin Rees, who both won the first two rounds of their fights vs. Broner.)
- While Broner has good foot speed, his wide-legged stance tends to leave him flat-footed in the ring. Broner's lack of mobility makes it easier for his opponents to land scoring punches against him, even if the punches aren't landing cleanly.
- Fighting at welterweight for only the 2nd time in his career after moving up two weight classes. Broner's 1st welterweight fight (vs. Paulie Malignaggi last June) seemed to indicate the KO power he had at lightweight may not fully carry over to the welterweight division.
Positives for Maidana
- Excellent power puncher puncher with KO power in both hands. (31 of his 34 wins have come by KO.) One of the best KO boxers in the sport.
- Very aggressive, high-volume puncher who is adept at cutting off the ring and applying pressure. Maidana's best punches are his right uppercut and left hook.
- Trainer is Robert Garcia, who is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia is the reigning BWAA Trainer of the Year and has been voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for the past two years.
- Maidana appears to have significantly improved his technical boxing skills - in particular his jab and body attack - under Garcia, who has trained him for his last three fights. Maidana's defense has also improved a bit under Garcia.
- Solid chin. Has been knocked down a few times in his career but has never been stopped. Has shown a tendency to fight well after being knocked down or facing pressure.
- Gritty boxer who fights with a lot of heart/determination.
Negatives for Maidana
- Maidana is a very solid, but far from elite boxer fighting the #9 pound-for-pound fighter in boxing today; is at a clear disadvantage in terms of talent, skill, and speed. Although he eventually got the KO, Maidana was involved in very close fights with B-level fighters such as Josesito Lopez and Jesus Soto Karass so tough to see how he will defeat an A-level fighter such as Broner. Maidana has also never held a major world title.
- Although he has improved somewhat, Maidana is a poor fighter defensively. Maidana's aggressiveness often leaves his head and body exposed to counter punches. (The three times Maidana has been knocked down has been the result of body shots.) Maidana's defense is particularly weak on the inside, as was shown in the Devon Alexander fight.
- Maidana's often throws wild punches. which sometimes leaves him out of position and open to counter punches.
- Maidana is largely a one-dimensional boxer who is very predictable in his approach. (Come-forward, straight line puncher.)
Prefight Summary
I anticipate this actually being an easy fight for Broner, due to his defensive prowess and the significant skill, talent, and speed advantages he has over Maidana. Broner may take the first couple of rounds to adjust to Maidana's high-volume aggressiveness, but I expect him to figure Maidana out and dominate the fight after that. With his underrated power, Broner even has a decent chance to win this fight by TKO/KO, but I think Maidana's grit and chin will prevent that. (Maidana has never come close to being stopped in his career.) I also question whether the power Broner showed at lightweight (135 lbs.) fully stayed with him after he moved up two weight classes to welterweight (147 lbs); he didn't come close to knocking Paulie Malignaggi out in his first fight at welterweight (though Paulie has good defensive skills and is a much more elusive fighter than Maidana).
After the first few rounds, I expect Broner to dominate the fight and land more or less at will, taking advantage of Maidana's poor defense, high volume over-aggressiveness, and wild punch-throwing tendencies to counter punch effectively. Maidana has shown good improvement in his technical boxing skills in his last few fights under trainer Robert Garcia, but Maidana is still below average defensively and nowhere near the point of being able to outbox an elite fighter such as Broner.
The thing that worries me about my prediction is that Maidana does have great power in both hands, while Broner has shown a tendency in the past to be flat-footed and not move around as much in the ring as he should. Broner's lack of mobility should provide Maidana opportunities to land the KO shot he will probably have to land to win this fight. But given Maidana's power, I expect Broner to move a bit more than he has in previous fights (where he hasn't necessarily needed to be mobile to win) to elude Maidana's power and pressure. Even if Broner stays in the pocket more than expected, his defensive prowess should allow him to roll and slip the majority of Maidana's power punches. Broner's counter punching skill and ability to fight inside and attack the body should limit Maidana's ability to pressure Broner as the fight progresses.
The bottom line on this fight is Broner is a defensively gifted, A-level boxer fighting a B-level boxer (albeit with A-level punching power) with poor defensive skills. This should become an increasingly easy fight for Broner as the fight progresses and, with the way Maidana leaves himself open to counter punching (in particular to the body), wouldn't be at all surprised if Broner gets the TKO/KO. But I expect Maidana's chin and heart to help him survive the fight, leaving Broner to settle for a comfortable unanimous decision.
After the first few rounds, I expect Broner to dominate the fight and land more or less at will, taking advantage of Maidana's poor defense, high volume over-aggressiveness, and wild punch-throwing tendencies to counter punch effectively. Maidana has shown good improvement in his technical boxing skills in his last few fights under trainer Robert Garcia, but Maidana is still below average defensively and nowhere near the point of being able to outbox an elite fighter such as Broner.
The thing that worries me about my prediction is that Maidana does have great power in both hands, while Broner has shown a tendency in the past to be flat-footed and not move around as much in the ring as he should. Broner's lack of mobility should provide Maidana opportunities to land the KO shot he will probably have to land to win this fight. But given Maidana's power, I expect Broner to move a bit more than he has in previous fights (where he hasn't necessarily needed to be mobile to win) to elude Maidana's power and pressure. Even if Broner stays in the pocket more than expected, his defensive prowess should allow him to roll and slip the majority of Maidana's power punches. Broner's counter punching skill and ability to fight inside and attack the body should limit Maidana's ability to pressure Broner as the fight progresses.
The bottom line on this fight is Broner is a defensively gifted, A-level boxer fighting a B-level boxer (albeit with A-level punching power) with poor defensive skills. This should become an increasingly easy fight for Broner as the fight progresses and, with the way Maidana leaves himself open to counter punching (in particular to the body), wouldn't be at all surprised if Broner gets the TKO/KO. But I expect Maidana's chin and heart to help him survive the fight, leaving Broner to settle for a comfortable unanimous decision.
