Fight: Vasyl Lomachenko (9-1, 7 KOs) vs. Guillermo Rigondeaux (17-0, 11 KOs)
Location: The Theater at Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 9, 2017
Weight class: Super featherweight (130 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO World super featherweight title
TV: ESPN
Line: Lomachenko: -325, Rigondeaux: +295 (
5 Dimes, 12/8/17)
Purses: Lomachenko: $1.2 million, Rigondeaux: $400,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Lomachenko:
#3 ranked pound-for-pound/
#1 ranked junior lightweight, Rigondeaux:
#4 ranked pound-for-pound/
#1 ranked junior featherweight
Style: Lomachenko: Southpaw, Rigondeaux: Southpaw
Referee: Steve Willis
Why you should watch this fight
For hardcore boxing fans, Vasyl Lomachenko vs. Guillermo Rigondeaux is right up there with Canelo vs. Golovkin and the first Andre Ward vs. Sergey Kovalev matchup as one of the most anticipated fights in recent years between two pound-for-pound ranked fighters in their prime.
The aforementioned Canelo/Golovkin and Ward/Kovalev matchups were PPV-televised fights. At least in the United States. boxing fans with a basic cable subscription will be able to watch tomorrow's highly anticipated matchup for free on ESPN.
Saturday's matchup features arguably the two greatest fighters in the 120+ year history of organized amateur boxing and will be the first time in the history of the sport fighters who have each won multiple Olympic gold medals will have faced each other. As an amateur, Lomachenko had a boxing record of 396-1 and won Olympic gold representing the Ukraine in the 2008 (Beijing) and 2012 (London) Olympics, while Rigondeaux boasted an amateur boxing record of 463-12 and won Olympic gold representing Cuba in the 2000 (Sydney) and 2004 (Athens) Olympics.
Lomachenko - who first won a major world title 3.5 years ago in only his third professional fight - is widely regarded as a historically great talent with first ballot hall-of-fame potential and is considered by many to be the fighter most likely to end up being the greatest boxer of the post-Mayweather era (assuming Mayweather is retired for good this time). On Saturday, Lomachenko will be facing by far the toughest test in young professional career in Rigondeaux - an experienced master technician who has never even come close to losing a fight in his professional career and who some would argue is even more skilled than even the uber-talented Lomachenko.
This fight between two top five pound-for-pound talents (Ring Magazine ranks Lomachenko and Rigondeaux as the #3 and #4 boxers in the world, respectively) should go a very long way to answering whether Lomachenko is truly deserving of the massive hype he's received as a potential all-time great and possible best boxer of a post-Mayweather/Pacquiao generation. On the other hand this fight also has the potential of being a career-defining win for Rigondeaux, a vastly underappreciated talent who has long been one of the best boxers in the sport pound-for-pound (if not the best), but has been sharply criticized for his elusive, fan-unfriendly boxing style, weak level of opposition, and general inactivity. (Rigondeaux has fought only four times in the past three years and fought only three full rounds in the past two years.) If a 37-year old Rigondeaux - who has fought his entire professional career at super bantamweight (122 lbs) - can jump up two weight classes and put on an impressive performance at super featherweight (130 lbs) vs. a fighter in Lomachenko whom many have pegged as a future hall-of-famer after only ten professional fights, it should go a long way towards silencing his numerous doubters and solidifying his own claim as one of the best boxers of this generation.
Why Vasyl Lomachenko will win
After only ten professional fights, Lomachenko is considered by many boxing fans and experts alike to be arguably the best boxer in the sport pound-for-pound (
Ring Magazine currently has him ranked #3 pound-for-pound, while ESPN
has him ranked #2) and a fighter who may potentially go down as one of the greatest boxers the sport has ever seen.
Lomachenko - the current WBO super featherweight champion of the world - has perhaps the most impressive record in the history of amateur boxing (career amateur boxing record of 396-1 record, double Olympic gold medalist, two-time amateur boxing world champion). He was also able to win a major world title in only his third professional fight and became a two-division world champion (at featherweight and super featherweight) in only his seventh professional fight, both records for the fewest fights at the start of a professional career to achieve these feats.
Lomachenko's hype and impressive achievements are the result of what appears to be freakish, historically great talent and skill. Lomachenko is a master technician with exceptional footwork and impeccable timing. His deft footwork in particular appears to be the root of his greatness, allowing him to throw precise punches from unorthodox, unpredictable angles
with power as well as dominate the tempo of fights by controlling distance with his movement. He is a highly intelligent pressure fighter who throws punches at a high volume with very good hand speed and great accuracy.
Given Lomachenko's high volume, pressure-oriented style, one should expect him to be more active and consistently throw more punches than the relatively low-volume, defensive-minded Rigondeaux - who will primarily be looking to counter Lomachenko's offensive attack.
Since his split decision loss 3.5 years ago to Orlando Salido (a fight that was only the 2nd fight of Lomachenko's professional career in which Salido failed to make weight and came in to the fight 21 pounds over the 126 lb weight limit), Lomachenko has won eight straight fights - with the last six by TKO/KO in dominating fashion. Still very early in his professional career, Lomachenko appears to be improving with each fight, with performances so dominant in recent fights that his last three opponents - including highly regarded and then-undefeated Nicholas Walters - voluntarily quit on their stools during the middle rounds of their fights.
As a 130 lb super featherweight world title holder who won Olympic gold and was a world champion as an amateur at lightweight (135 lbs), Lomachenko will likely enter Saturday's matchup with a noticeable weight advantage vs. the physically smaller Rigondeaux - who is moving
two weight classes up from super bantamweight (122 lbs) to fight at 130 lbs
for the first time in his boxing career, professional or amateur. Lomachenko's experience at the higher weight class combined with his versatile set of skills and superior athleticism may prove to be overwhelming vs. even an unquestionably elite pound-for-pound fighter in Rigondeaux. Rigondeaux is a defensively-gifted counterpuncher with
very underrated power but one has to wonder how well that power will carry up two weight classes for a past-prime, 37-year old fighter who has been relatively inactive in recent years. (Rigondeaux has fought only three full rounds the past three years and fought only once in each of the past three years.)
Lomachenko's lone loss was to a pressure fighter in Salido who used high punch volume, a significant weight advantage, and experience to essentially bully a relatively inexperienced Lomachenko in the early rounds of their fight en route to a controversial split decision victory. Rigondeaux is a much smaller, low-volume counter puncher who doesn't have the pressure style that Salido used over 3 years ago to defeat a now much more experienced Lomachenko.
Lomachenko's pressuring style leaves him susceptible to counter punching at times but his excellent footwork, as well as frequent and varied upper body and punch feints makes him very difficult to time and hit cleanly. One shouldn't be surprised if even Rigondeaux's highly accurate counter punching and superior hand speed have trouble finding the target vs. Lomachenko's crafty defense. Even if Rigondeaux is able to land punches, one has to wonder how effective the punching power of a career super bantamweight will be vs. a bigger fighter who has never been knocked down in his professional career and has only been knocked down once in 397 amateur fights. Rigondeaux, on the other hand, has been knocked down four times across three fights at 122 lbs vs. smaller fighters with less power than Lomachenko.
At Madison Square Garden in New York City Lomachenko and his engaging, crowd-pleasing style will be the clear fan favorite vs. Rigondeaux and his low-volume, defensively-oriented tactics, which have been criticized by numerous boxing observers as "boring." Note that the pro-Lomachenko crowd and Lomachenko's fan-friendly ring style - complete with aggressive, accurate, and clean power punching that judges tend to favor - stand a good chance of creating a scoring bias in favor of Lomachenko if the fight is close and competitive. (In other words, I think it will be difficult for Rigondeaux to win this fight on the judges' scorecards unless he completely dominates Lomachenko.)
Lomachenko is younger (by 8 years) than the 37-year old Rigondeaux and is the more ambitious fighter - as evidenced by his willingness to take on elite fighters like Rigondeaux so early in his professional career; every fight he's fought since his first professional fight has been a major world title fight vs. a solid opponent. Rigondeaux comes into Saturday's matchup as an underappreciated 3-1 underdog who feels he has a lot to prove but I think Lomachenko is the more determined, ambitious fighter fighting to establish a legacy that will perhaps render him one of the great fighters of this (or any) generation; an impressive performance vs. Rigondeaux would go a long way towards building that legacy.
Why Guillermo Rigondeaux will win
Like Lomachenko, Rigondeaux is widely considered one of the best boxers in the sport pound-for-pound (
Ring Magazine has him ranked #4, while ESPN has him at #7). Also like Lomachenko, Rigondeaux has an impressive amateur boxing pedigree that includes two Olympic gold medals and multiple international amateur championships. In his professional career, Rigondeaux is undefeated (17-0) and is the current WBA super bantamweight champion of the world.
Rigondeaux arguably hasn't even come close to losing a fight since turning pro in 2009 and he hasn't lost a fight as an amateur or pro since 2003.
As excellent and highly regarded as Lomachenko is, many actually consider Rigondeaux to be the superior boxer overall. Hall-of-fame trainer Freddie Roach, who trained Rigondeaux early in his career, noted that Rigondeaux was "the best counter puncher" and "probably the greatest talent" he'd ever seen. Indeed, Rigondeaux is universally regarded as a master counter puncher with superior hand speed and punching power to that of Lomachenko's (though it remains to be seen how well Rigondeaux's very underrated power carries up two weight classes to super featherweight). Rigondeaux's counter punching is particularly effective to the body, where he's been able to land his powerful straight left with regularity vs. most opponents. Regardless of size advantage - if Rigondeaux can land even some of those body shots vs. Lomachenko, it will likely go a long way towards wearing Lomachenko down by the latter rounds of the fight.
While Lomachenko is the bigger guy who will come into the ring with a size and weight advantage Saturday night, it remains to be seen how effective Lomachenko will actually be in imposing his size on Rigondeaux. While he's certainly a skilled pressure fighter, Lomachenko has never been known as a particularly physical fighter - he's always relied much more on crafty movement, speed, and accuracy than physically imposing himself on his opponent with size and brute strength. So how valuable will Lomachenko's size advantage really be in this matchup?
Well-schooled in the highly-respected Cuban amateur boxing system, Rigondeaux is an extremely efficient, accurate counter puncher who might have the best defense in the entire sport with his excellent footwork and vertical/lateral elusiveness. Rigondeaux's 2.5-inch reach advantage over Lomachenko should enhance Rigondeaux's ability to counter punch from distance and elude Lomachenko's pressure.
One should also expect Rigondeaux's rare combination of hand speed, punching power (in
both hands), and accuracy to at least somewhat stymie Lomachenko's attack. Rigondeaux has a history of freezing even highly-regarded opponents with precise counter punching. Remember that in 2013, Rigondeaux entered his fight with then-WBO super bantamweight champion Nonito Donaire - who had not lost a fight in over 12 years and was considered by most to be one of the top five boxers in the sport pound-for-for-pound at the time - as a 2-1 underdog. In that fight Rigondeaux put up probably the best performance of his professional career, ending Donaire's 30-fight win streak by outclassing him with timely counter punching and speed - dominating the fight despite Donaire's advantages in size and power. In his fight immediately following the Donaire fight, Rigondeaux similarly stymied former two-time IBF bantamweight champion Joseph Agbeko - a fight in which a normally tough and high-volume Agbeko
landed only 48 punches over the course of 12 rounds (the second fewest punches landed over 12 rounds in the 32-year history of CompuBox-tracked fights).
Rigondeaux's relative inactivity in recent years (he's fought only four times over the past three years) may actually work as an advantage; given his lack of ring activity and cautious, defensively-oriented style, Rigondeaux has suffered very little wear-and-tear over the course of his 18-fight professional career. For a 37-year old fighter past his athletic prime, he is relatively fresh and has shown
zero signs of slippage in speed or power in any of his recent fights.
Despite having fought only 18 career fights as a pro, Rigondeaux also has a slight advantage in professional boxing experience over Lomachenko, who is fighting in his 11th fight as only a 4th-year pro. A large part of the reason Lomachenko lost to a less-skilled Salido in 2014 was Salido's significant advantage in experience. Lomachenko has gained experience and has become a better fighter in the 3.5 years since that loss but Rigondeaux is infinitely more skilled than Salido and will be
by far the toughest, most skilled opponent Lomachenko has fought (and likely
will fight, regardless of who he faces in the future) in his career.
This is the biggest fight of Rigondeaux's career. Coming into this fight as a significant underdog vs. a heavily glorified opponent and having taken a lot of criticism throughout his career for his inactivity and risk-averse style, Rigondeaux has a lot to prove. In the previous biggest fight of his career (vs. Donaire), Rigondeaux put up a technical masterpiece vs. a bigger, stronger opponent in what was probably the most brilliant performance of his career. He will surely be (highly) motivated to do the same Saturday night vs. Lomachenko.
Prefight Analysis
Given the elite pedigree and skills - as well as solid punching power - of both boxers, this is a fight that could end a number of possible different ways.
Despite being a significant underdog, Rigondeaux is the more experienced, quicker, and arguably the better overall skilled fighter (particularly from a defensive standpoint) in this matchup. Though he's the smaller fighter, he may also actually be the more dangerous puncher (at least in terms of one-punch knockout power). Unlike Lomachenko, Rigondeaux has never lost a fight in his professional carer (and has never really even come close to losing a fight) and has a history of making even well-respected, top-level opponents look mediocre (see his fights vs. former world champions Donaire and Agbeko).
There should be no surprise whatsoever if Rigondeaux is able to use elusive footwork, as well as his superior hand speed and counter punching abilities to outbox - perhaps even outclass - an immensely gifted but slightly slower and relatively inexperienced Lomachenko. And although it would be surprising, it wouldn't be a tremendous shocker to see Rigondeaux - whose punching power is often overlooked given his low-volume, defensively-oriented style - land enough clean power punches in countering Lomachenko's pressure to stop him in the late rounds. Assuming Rigondeaux's power holds up well at the higher weight class and assuming he hasn't lost much speed or power past his physical prime at 37-years old, taking Rigondeaux to win the fight at approximately +300 odds might be a decent value play.
But, at the end of the day, I see the two-weight class (8 lb) jump and size disparity to be a bit much for even a great defensive counter puncher like Rigondeaux to overcome. I see Rigondeaux facing similar challenges to the difficulties Kell Brook and Amir Khan had last year jumping up two weight classes (from welterweight to middleweight) to fight Gennady Golovkin and Canelo Alvarez. Both Brook and Khan were arguably more skilled than their bigger, pound-for-pound rated opponents and both even had success in the very early rounds, but the size advantage and power of Golovkin and Canelo proved to be overwhelming en route to brutal stoppage losses for both in the middle rounds. (And, after well over a year, neither Brook or Khan has fought again since being stopped.)
Rigondeaux is certainly more defensively skilled than Brook or Khan, and Lomachenko certainly does not have the power or the imposing size of a Golovkin or Canelo, but he has elite skill and precision - particularly shooting punches from unorthodox angles - to complement the respectable power he has. And Rigondeaux has shown a questionable chin even at the lower weight class vs. opponents with less punching power, having been knocked down four times in three of his previous fights.
Rigondeaux has a history of stymieing bigger, more aggressive opponents but at this higher weight class I think Lomachenko's size, pressure, and craftiness will be too much for even a defensively gifted Rigondeaux to handle - especially given Rigondeaux's lack of punch volume.
I don't see Rigondeaux's power carrying up to 130 lbs as well as some might expect - especially vs. a fighter like Lomachenko who has shown a very good chin (having never come close to being knocked down in his brief professional career and being knocked down only once in a 397-fight amateur career) and is much more difficult to hit cleanly than previous top-level Rigondeaux opponents like Donaire and Agbeko with his excellent footwork and frequent body feints.
Also consider that if the fight ends up being close I'd expect the more entertaining, higher volume Lomachenko to get the nod on the judges' scorecards over a relatively low-volume, defensive-minded Rigondeaux - especially in front of what will be a decidedly pro-Lomachenko crowd on a boxing card backed by Lomachenko's promoter, Top Rank. (In other words yes, I expect boxing politics to favor Lomachenko over the relatively unpopular Rigondeaux if the fight happens to be close.)
I think there is a pretty good chance Lomachenko overwhelms Rigondeaux and stops him in the later rounds but, given Rigondeaux's defensive prowess, I think it's more likely Rigondeaux is able to survive the full 12 rounds. Given the high IQ and crazy skills of both fighters I see this fight having more moments resembling a high-level chess match - where not many punches are landed - than of a bloody brawl. But whether it's by stoppage or by decision I think most signs point to a Lomachenko victory here, so would go with Lomachenko simply to win (currently at -325 odds) as your best bet.
I'll be at this fight Saturday night; if the matchup in the ring is even half as good as the matchup on paper, we're in for a classic given the impressive pedigree and skill of both fighters!
Prediction: Lomachenko to win
Recommended bet: Lomachenko to win (1 unit)
for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!
