Fight: Terence Crawford (32-0, 23 KOs) vs. Jeff Horn (18-0,-1 12 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: June 9, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO World Welterweight title
TV: ESPN+
Line: Crawford -570, Horn +480 (5 Dimes, 6/9/18)
Purse: Crawford: $3 million, Horn: $1.25 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Crawford: #3 ranked pound-for-pound, Horn: #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Crawford: Orthodox, Horn: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd
Why you should watch this fight
Of the top-ranked fighters in boxing, there are three who have arguably separated themselves from the rest of the pack to have a reasonable claim as the best fighter in the sport: Gennady Golovkin - who is still undefeated after last year's controversial draw vs. Canelo Alvarez, is coming off a sensational 2nd-round KO victory vs. Vanes Martirosyan, and is currently on one of the great title defense runs in the history of the middleweight division; Vasyl Lomachenko - who is coming off an impressive TKO victory vs. highly regarded Jorge Linares to win the WBA lightweight title (becoming the fastest fighter in the 120+ year history of boxing to win a world title in three divisions); and Crawford, who in his last fight became the first boxer in 13 years to be undisputed champion of the world (i.e., simultaneously hold all four major world titles within a single weight division). Crawford earned his undisputed champion status in the junior welterweight (140 lb) division after defeating previously undefeated Julius Indongo to unify all four titles in the weight class.
Over the past month, both Golovkin and Lomachenko have made their case for #1 fighter in the sport with impressive knockout victories over solid opponents. Crawford is looking to similarly impress and put in his claim as the best boxer pound-for-pound this Saturday in his welterweight debut vs. Horn, a naturally bigger man than Crawford who - as Pacquiao found out in his matchup with Horn last year - is difficult to look impressive against.
On the other side of the ring Horn - a former school teacher who became a household name overnight in his home country of Australia after his shocking upset of heavy betting favorite Pacquiao - is looking to prove his win over Pacquiao (who came into last July's fight vs. Horn with much more experience at welterweight than Crawford will this Saturday) was no fluke.
Crawford vs. Horn will be the first high-profile boxing match to be televised live on ESPN's new "ESPN Plus" (ESPN+) subscription service. Will Crawford once again live up to the hype - making the biggest weight jump of his career (7 lbs) to win a title in his third weight class and stake his claim as the best fighter in the sport? Or will Jeff Horn - who opened as a 10-1 underdog and is currently graded as nearly a 5-1 underdog for Saturday's fight - shock the world again?
Prefight Analysis
This fight could very easily be tougher for Crawford than most think. Horn is the bigger fighter in this matchup - a fighter who's boxed his entire professional career at welterweight (and is generally considered a big guy within the weight class) while Crawford has fought a large part of his career two full divisions lower at lightweight. It shouldn't be overlooked here that Crawford is making the biggest weight jump of his career Saturday night to fight at welterweight for the first time in his career vs. an undefeated welterweight champion.
As he showed in his upset of Pacquiao, Horn is a tough, durable fighter at welterweight who might be able to impose his size advantage and physicality in the early rounds on a smaller Crawford who sometimes likes to exercise patience (and thus can be a slow starter) early. Horn has an awkward, "herky-jerky" style featuring deceptively quick foot movement and timely pressure that may take even a master of in-fight adjustments like Crawford a few rounds to get acclimated to. Horn also has legitimate power in his right hand that Crawford likely won't be able to just walk through (as he's done with shots from big power punchers at lower weight divisions).
Horn comes into this fight as a substantial underdog but he's is an undefeated world champion who's consistently shown the toughness and resiliency to do what he has to do to get the victory. Crawford - though a bigger-sized guy when he fought in the lightweight and junior welterweight divisions - is the naturally smaller fighter in this welterweight matchup with Horn and will be fighting at welterweight for the very first time in his career. There's a non-negligible chance that - similar to the Pacquiao fight - Horn's size advantage, physicality, and pressure will be a bit more than Crawford bargained for and overcome Crawford's clear skill and talent advantage.
But I think Horn has way too much to overcome here in this matchup (vs. arguably the best boxer in the world pound-for-pound in Crawford) to pull off the upset - in my opinion, the pick here is Crawford by TKO/KO. Yes, Horn is the bigger, typically more physical fighter and is the only fighter in this matchup with any experience at welterweight. But Crawford has the clear advantage in just about every other facet of the matchup: skills (both offensive and defensive), punch accuracy, speed, quickness, athleticism, reach, power, ring IQ, etc. There are levels to boxing - Crawford has proven multiple times that he's an A-level boxer and is currently in the prime of what will likely be a hall-of-fame career; Horn is at best a B/B+-level fighter whose best win was a highly controversial decision over a past-prime Pacquiao - a fight that most observers felt he lost.
Horn came into last year's fight vs. Pacquiao as nearly a middleweight the day of the fight and was, in many spots, successfully able to impose his size advantage and physicality on the smaller Pacquiao. Despite this, Pacquiao was able to consistently land power shots and visibly bloody Horn to the point where at the end of the 9th round the referee came over to Horn's corner and suggested the fight be stopped. One thing that saved Horn in last year's fight was Pacquiao's cautiousness; since his KO loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012, Pacquiao has been noticeably less willing to take risks offensively (he hasn't stopped anyone since Marquez knocked him out) and his punch output has declined considerably.
The killer instinct that was a hallmark of prime Pacquiao has all but disappeared in recent years. Prime Crawford still has that killer instinct; you can bet he will be more aggressive in the middle to later rounds than Pacquiao was vs. Horn. Crawford does not have quite the hand speed or quickness of even a past-prime Pacquiao but he is much more accurate and crafty offensively; in the later rounds I anticipate he'll be able to land power punches almost at will vs. a tough, but defensively flawed Horn who will try to apply pressure on Crawford and thus will be open for Crawford's counterpunching. Horn can be elusive on his feet but has a "head-first" come-forward style which likely won't work well for long vs. an accurate power puncher like Crawford who will be looking to time Horn as he jumps inside to attack. Note that Horn has been knocked down in two of his last five fights and in a third fight (the fight vs. Pacquiao last year) came close to being stopped.
An overwhelming majority of the boxing press, ringside observers, and general public felt Horn lost last year in a fight vs. a past-prime, smaller fighter with declining skills in Pacquiao. In my opinion, it's highly likely he'll take a worse beating vs. a much younger, prime Crawford who has superior technical skills to Pacquiao and is eager to make his case as possibly the best boxer in the world so will actively look to be much more aggressive than Pacquiao was last year.
It's important to note that Horn got the controversial decision over Pacquiao in the city (and country) where he was born and raised (Brisbane, Australia). Saturday night he'll be fighting in Crawford's home country in front of mostly Crawford fans who - as proven in previous Crawford fights in New York City and Las Vegas - travel as well as fans of any current American fighter. I see Horn putting up a spirited effort and making the fight competitive in the early rounds before the talent and skill gap becomes apparent, leading to Crawford dominating the fight in the middle and late rounds.
I don't anticipate too much suspense in this fight but it'll be intriguing to see how Crawford performs in his welterweight debut so we can maybe better gauge how he might perform in possible superfights down the road vs. top welterweights like Errol Spence, Keith Thurman, and Danny Garcia. Or maybe Horn will show tonight that he's a top welterweight we've all been sleeping on???
Prediction: Crawford by TKO/KO
