Broner vs. Maidana: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Adrien Broner (27-0-0, 22 KOs) vs. Marcos Maidana (34-3-0, 31 KOs)
Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
Date: December 14, 2013
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA World Welterweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Broner -440, Maidana +350 (5 Dimes, 12/14/13)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Adrien Broner - #9 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked lightweight, #6 ranked welterweight), Maidana - unranked
Style: Broner: Orthodox, Maidana: Orthodox

Positives for Broner

• Ring Magazine #9 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport. Undefeated fighter with excellent agility, hand speed, and foot speed. Highly talented boxer who, at 24 years old, is already a 3-division world champion. Currently in the prime of his career.
• Slick, versatile technician who is adept at both counter punching and being aggressive, cutting off the ring vs. his opponents. 
• Low-volume at times but very efficient, accurate puncher with good KO power in both hands. (22 of his 27 wins have come by KO.)
• One of the best defensive fighters in boxing. Adept with both the shoulder roll and high guard defense. Almost Floyd Mayweather-like in his ability to stay in the pocket and use his defensive skills to make his opponents miss. Slips and rolls punches very well. Difficult fighter to hit cleanly.  
• High IQ boxer who is good at making technical adjustments in the ring over the course of the fight.
• Excellent at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Throws very accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body. 

Negatives for Broner

• Relatively untested. Paulie Malignaggi and Daniel Ponce de Leon have been his only tough opponents to date. 
• Low-volume puncher who is prone to getting out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. (This was the case in his last two fights vs. Malignaggi and Gavin Rees, who both won the first two rounds of their fights vs. Broner.)
• While Broner has good foot speed, his wide-legged stance tends to leave him flat-footed in the ring. Broner's lack of mobility makes it easier for his opponents to land scoring punches against him, even if the punches aren't landing cleanly. 
• Fighting at welterweight for only the 2nd time in his career after moving up two weight classes. Broner's 1st welterweight fight (vs. Paulie Malignaggi last June) seemed to indicate the KO power he had at lightweight may not fully carry over to the welterweight division. 

Positives for Maidana

• Excellent power puncher puncher with KO power in both hands. (31 of his 34 wins have come by KO.) One of the best KO boxers in the sport. 
• Very aggressive, high-volume puncher who is adept at cutting off the ring and applying pressure. Maidana's best punches are his right uppercut and left hook.
• Trainer is Robert Garcia, who is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia is the reigning BWAA Trainer of the Year and has been voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for the past two years.  
• Maidana appears to have significantly improved his technical boxing skills - in particular his jab and body attack - under Garcia, who has trained him for his last three fights. Maidana's defense has also improved a bit under Garcia.   
• Solid chin. Has been knocked down a few times in his career but has never been stopped. Has shown a tendency to fight well after being knocked down or facing pressure. 
• Gritty boxer who fights with a lot of heart/determination. 

Negatives for Maidana

• Maidana is a very solid, but far from elite boxer fighting the #9 pound-for-pound fighter in boxing today; is at a clear disadvantage in terms of talent, skill, and speed. Although he eventually got the KO, Maidana was involved in very close fights with B-level fighters such as Josesito Lopez and Jesus Soto Karass so tough to see how he will defeat an A-level fighter such as Broner. Maidana has also never held a major world title. 
• Although he has improved somewhat, Maidana is a poor fighter defensively. Maidana's aggressiveness often leaves his head and body exposed to counter punches. (The three times Maidana has been knocked down has been the result of body shots.) Maidana's defense is particularly weak on the inside, as was shown in the Devon Alexander fight. 
• Maidana's often throws wild punches. which sometimes leaves him out of position and open to counter punches.  
• Maidana is largely a one-dimensional boxer who is very predictable in his approach. (Come-forward, straight line puncher.)

Prefight Summary

I anticipate this actually being an easy fight for Broner, due to his defensive prowess and the significant skill, talent, and speed advantages he has over Maidana. Broner may take the first couple of rounds to adjust to Maidana's high-volume aggressiveness, but I expect him to figure Maidana out and dominate the fight after that. With his underrated power, Broner even has a decent chance to win this fight by TKO/KO, but I think Maidana's grit and chin will prevent that. (Maidana has never come close to being stopped in his career.) I also question whether the power Broner showed at lightweight (135 lbs.) fully stayed with him after he moved up two weight classes to welterweight (147 lbs); he didn't come close to knocking Paulie Malignaggi out in his first fight at welterweight (though Paulie has good defensive skills and is a much more elusive fighter than Maidana).

After the first few rounds, I expect Broner to dominate the fight and land more or less at will, taking advantage of Maidana's poor defense, high volume over-aggressiveness, and wild punch-throwing tendencies to counter punch effectively. Maidana has shown good improvement in his technical boxing skills in his last few fights under trainer Robert Garcia, but Maidana is still below average defensively and nowhere near the point of being able to outbox an elite fighter such as Broner.

The thing that worries me about my prediction is that Maidana does have great power in both hands, while Broner has shown a tendency in the past to be flat-footed and not move around as much in the ring as he should. Broner's lack of mobility should provide Maidana opportunities to land the KO shot he will probably have to land to win this fight. But given Maidana's power, I expect Broner to move a bit more than he has in previous fights (where he hasn't necessarily needed to be mobile to win) to elude Maidana's power and pressure. Even if Broner stays in the pocket more than expected, his defensive prowess should allow him to roll and slip the majority of Maidana's power punches. Broner's counter punching skill and ability to fight inside and attack the body should limit Maidana's ability to pressure Broner as the fight progresses.

The bottom line on this fight is Broner is a defensively gifted, A-level boxer fighting a B-level boxer (albeit with A-level punching power) with poor defensive skills. This should become an increasingly easy fight for Broner as the fight progresses and, with the way Maidana leaves himself open to counter punching (in particular to the body), wouldn't be at all surprised if Broner gets the TKO/KO. But I expect Maidana's chin and heart to help him survive the fight, leaving Broner to settle for a comfortable unanimous decision. 

Prediction: Broner by decision 

Ward vs. Rodriguez: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Andre Ward (26-0-0, 14 KOs) vs. Edwin Rodriguez (24-0-0, 16 KOs)
Location: Citizens Business Bank Arena, Ontario, California
Date: November 16, 2013
Weight class: Super Middleweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None (WBA (Super) World Super Middleweight and Ring Magazine Super Middleweight championships were on line but Rodriguez did not make weight)
TV: HBO
Line: Ward -2000, Rodriguez +1250 (5 Dimes, 11/16/13)
Purse: Ward: $1.9 million, Rodriguez: $1 million (Note: Rodriguez was fined $200,000 from $1 million purse for not making weight, $100,000 of which went to Ward)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Ward - #2 ranked pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine super middleweight champion), Rodriguez - #7 ranked super middleweight
Style: Ward: Orthodox, Rodriguez: Orthodox

Positives for Ward

• #2 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport today. Undefeated master technician who hasn't lost as a pro or as an amateur since he was 12 years old. Has great all-around skills and has no true weaknesses. 1996 Olympic gold medalist and future Hall-of-Famer.
• Hasn't truly been tested in his career, this despite having fought arguably the toughest schedule of any boxer over the past few years - which includes Showtime's Super Six World Boxing Classic tournament (where Ward was undefeated).
• Very versatile, crafty boxer who fights superbly both inside and outside. Physical fighter who is very skilled at smothering opponents wearing them down on the inside. Can box and brawl very well.
• Has great instincts and is excellent at adjusting to his opponents during the fight. Along with Floyd Mayweather and Bernard Hopkins is one of the master technicians in the sport today.
• Smart defensively, particularly on the inside. 
• Highly accurate puncher who throws well-timed jabs and is good at attacking the body on the inside. 
• Extremely intelligent, high-IQ boxer who is highly focused. Very humble fighter who does not take any opponent lightly. 
• Reliable chin. Has only been knocked down once in his career.

Negatives for Ward

• Hasn't fought in over 14 months due to surgery for a serious right shoulder injury. Will the inactivity/surgery affect his return?
• Is sometimes passive in early rounds while figuring out his opponent.
• Not exceptionally powerful; doesn't have one punch KO power. This could give Rodriguez a full 12 rounds to land something surprising to upset Ward.
• How good is Ward's chin really? He's been knocked down before and there have been spots in previous fights where he's been shook up by lesser opponents. 

Positives for Rodriguez

• Undefeated, solid, aggressive volume puncher with good power in both hands. Very hungry, determined fighter who will make every effort to pull off the upset vs. Ward. 
• Naturally gifted fighter with very good athletic ability.
• Tall fighter with good reach. Uses his length well vs. most opponents to establish his jab. Will have a 5" reach advantage vs. Ward. 
• Throws punches from awkward angles, making him unpredictable. Rodriguez's unpredictability could make it harder for Ward to avoid Rodriguez's punches in spots and time his own counter punches. 
• Rodriguez's defense has gotten better over the past few fights. He has good head movement and uses the shoulder roll well to minimize the impact of punches. 

Negatives for Rodriguez

• Fighting the #2 pound-for-pound fighter in boxing today; likely going into the fight out-classed in terms of skill, talent, and boxing IQ.
• Lack of experience at the top level; Rodriguez hasn't fought the same level of opponents Ward has. This will be Rodriguez's first fight vs. an elite boxer.
• Rodriguez likely physically drained from trying to make weight (which he failed to do), which may increase the likelihood he shows fatigue or even gets knocked out during the fight.
• Has improved defensively but aggressive, wild punching style often leaves him susceptible to counter punches.

Prefight Summary

Barring lingering after-effects from his 14 months of inactivity or recent shoulder injury, this should be a very easy fight for Ward. Ward is a future all-time great, Hall-of-Fame boxer who is clearly superior to Rodriguez in terms of natural talent, technical skills, and boxing IQ. Ward should be able effectively counter Rodriguez's highly aggressive style with accurate punches in the early rounds and eventually work his way inside, wearing Rodriguez down with punishing body shots. Rodriguez is hungry and undefeated, but he is not skilled enough to outbox an elite talent like Ward over 12 rounds.

Given Ward's lack of KO power and the fact that Rodriguez is a fairly big, athletic guy who's never been down in his career, I think the most likely outcome for the fight is Ward by a wide, unanimous decision. However, Ward is very good at wearing his opponents down on the inside with body punches and, given that Rodriguez may be coming into the fight physically drained from trying (and failing) to make weight, there is a good possibility Ward gets the stoppage inside 12 rounds.

Rodriguez has good power in both hands and Ward has been knocked down before so Rodriguez does have a puncher's chance if he can land a lucky punch or two (especially given his unorthodox, unpredictable punching style). There's also the possibility Ward is still rusty from 14 months of inactivity or that his shoulder (which had been a problem for him since he was an amateur) gives him problems during the fight that Rodriguez can exploit. But even if there's some adversity, Ward's experience and savvy alone should guide him to a fairly easy victory, whether that be by wide unanimous decision or by TKO/KO.

Prediction: Ward by decision 

Garcia vs. Martinez: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Mikey Garcia (32-0-0, 27 KOs) vs. Roman Martinez (27-1-2, 16 KOs)
Location: American Bank Center, Corpus Christi, Texas
Date: November 9, 2013
Weight class: Super Featherweight (130 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Super Featherweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Garcia -1500, Martinez +1000 (5 Dimes, 11/9/13)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia - Ring Magazine featherweight champion, Martinez - #3 ranked junior lightweight
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Martinez: Orthodox

Positives for Garcia

• Very good/great boxing technician with excellent punching power. Has one punch KO power but can also wear you down through the fight with powerful, accurate punches. 27 of Garcia's 32 victories (84%) have been by TKO or KO. If not the hardest, one of the hardest punchers in boxing pound-for-pound.
• Despite excellent punching power, is an extremely patient fighter who prefers to box and wait for opportunities to counter rather than brawl. A boxer-puncher with great technical skills and outstanding punching power so is capable of beating opponents by boxing or brawling.  
• Very intelligent, high-IQ boxer. College graduate who is very mature for his age and is interested in becoming a police officer after his boxing career. 
• Young (only 25 years old), but has good pedigree and decent experience. Comes from a well-known boxing family with a father and two brothers who are trainers and a brother (his current trainer, Robert Garcia) who was former IBF Super Featherweight champion of the world. Robert Garcia is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing, as he's the reigning BWAA Trainer of the Year and has been voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for the past two years.  
• Had a very strong amateur career. Won gold at the 2004 National Junior Golden Gloves championships and has beaten the likes of current undefeated lightweight champion Danny Garcia during amateurs.
• Is now working with strength and conditioning coach Alex Ariza, who's worked extensively with Manny Pacquiao in the past. 

Negatives for Garcia

• Sometimes starts slow in fights while figuring his opponents out.
• Garcia is a relatively untested fighter. Most talented fighter on Garcia's resume is Juan Manuel Lopez, who lost his last 3 title fights (including his most recent fight vs. Garcia) by TKO due to a weak chin. The only other notable fighter on Garcia's resume is Orlando Salido, the current WBO featherweight champion but has 12 losses to his credit. Garcia does not have a lot of experience vs. solid fighters.
• This is Garcia's first fight at super featherweight (130). 
• Due to patience, is not a particularly high-volume fighter, which could work against him vs. an aggressive, high-volume boxer like Martinez.

Positives for Martinez

• Hyper-aggressive, come-forward boxer with very high punch volume. Is 3-0-1 in last 4 title fights primarily on his ability to outwork his opponents. 
• Has an excellent chin. Has never been knocked down or stopped by TKO in his career.
• Has excellent stamina and conditioning. Despite his high pressure style, Martinez rarely tires during the later rounds of fights
• Good pressure fighter who prefers to brawl, but at times has shown ability to box effectively.
• Mentally tough boxer. Displays great heart and determination during all of his fights. High-effort fighter.
• Doesn't have great KO power but has good, solid punching power to keep his opponents honest.
• Older and more experienced fighter than Garcia. Is the current and defending WBO Super Featherweight world champion. Won the WBO Super Featherweight championship previously in 2009 before losing the title and regaining it last year vs. Miguel Beltran.

Negatives for Martinez

• Martinez's defense is very suspect. His aggressive style often leaves him very exposed to counters, which could be disastrous vs. a power puncher like Garcia.
• Despite being a two-time super featherweight champion of the world, his skills are best classified as "2nd-tier," a full level below Garcia's. Garcia clearly has the superior talent, skills, and power in this matchup.
• Often is a slow starter in fights, which he likely can't afford to do vs. Garcia. 
• Martinez's last three fights have been close, split decisions vs. opponents nowhere near the talent or skill of Garcia.

Prefight Summary

The bottom line here is this is a fight between an A-level boxer who may be well on his way to becoming one of the elite boxers in the sport for years to come vs. a B-level boxer who, despite having tremendous heart and determination, is not nearly as skilled or talented.

Martinez fights a highly aggressive style with high punch output - a style which has earned him two super featherweight titles against opponents who were sometimes more skilled or talented than he was. But Martinez has not fought anyone even approaching the level of skill or talent of Garcia. Martinez's style may give him success at times in early rounds (as Garcia is sometimes a slow starter), but Garcia will eventually figure out angles from which to counter with his powerful punches. Martinez has subpar defensive skills, so I'd expect Garcia to gradually overwhelm him with power shots. Martinez has a great chin and has never been knocked down in his career, but he has never fought a fighter with the power of Mikey Garcia. Martinez often doesn't mind taking punches to throw more punches but that will likely be his downfall vs. a puncher with Garcia's power.

In recent fights, Martinez has been able to obtain close, split decisions (in fights he otherwise likely would've lost by a wide margin), with aggression and high punch output. (In each of his last three fights one of the judges scored the fight against him by a wide margin, but Martinez was still able to pull out a win or split-decision draw.) There is a possibility Martinez could outwork Garcia (a very patient boxer who doesn't throw at a high volume), but Garcia is too accurate, skilled, and powerful of a puncher for Martinez to get a decision against, if the fight goes 12 rounds.

Martinez will give a great effort and show the same tremendous heart and determination he shows in all his fights but again, in a fight between an A-level fighter and a B-level fighter, the A-level fighter with the superior power, skills, boxing IQ, and talent will win nearly every time. Martinez doesn't have the defensive ability or boxing skills to avoid Garcia's counter punches and overwhelming power for 12 rounds.

Prediction: Garcia by TKO/KO 

Hopkins vs. Murat: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Bernard Hopkins (53-6-2-2, 32 KOs) vs. Karo Murat (25-1-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey
Date: October 26, 2013
Weight class: Light Heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF Light Heavyweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Hopkins -840, Murat +660 (5 Dimes, 10/26/13)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Hopkins #2 ranked light heavyweight, Murat #6 ranked light heavyweight
Style: Hopkins: Orthodox, Murat: Orthodox

Positives for Hopkins

• One of the great middleweight boxers of all time. Still a master class technician at age 48. Future first ballot hall-of-famer.
• Tough, savvy boxer with an extremely high boxing IQ. Adept at making adjustments during the fight. Great all around boxer with no major weaknesses.
• Especially adept at fighting inside and wearing his opponents down with body shots. Arguably the best inside fighter of the past 20 years.
•  Has excellent defensive skills. Keeps chin down and hands high, making him a tough target to hit cleanly. Has a solid chin when hit.
• Doesn't have the knockout power he once had but still has good power in both hands.
• At 6'1", has height advantage over the 5'10" Murat. Also has a 5" reach advantage. 
• 48 years old (2.5 months from turning 49) but still in world class shape, as evidenced by the fact that he is the current IBF light heavyweight champion of the world and recently beaten the likes of Tavoris Cloud (17 years his junior) and Jean Pascal (18 years his junior), two of the top 10 light heavyweight boxers in the world.
• Hopkins is the more experienced, more skilled fighter by a wide margin. Has fought (and beaten) the likes of Keith Holmes, Felix Trinidad, Oscar De La Hoya, Roy Jones Jr., Kelly Pavlik, and William Joppy. In his prime, Hopkins achieved a record 20 middleweight world title defenses. Murat has never won (or even fought for) a major world title belt.
• Will be fighting in front of a decidedly pro-Hopkins crowd in Atlantic City, NJ (only a one hour drive from his hometown of Philadelphia, PA). This will be Hopkins' 18th time fighting in Atlantic City as a pro. 

Negatives for Hopkins

• Hopkins is 48 years old, 18 years older than Murat. Hopkins has consistently fought at a world-class level and beaten top-level competition but he'll inevitably slow down at his older age. Could this be the fight where he finally shows his age? 
• Notoriously slow starter in fights. Starts slow while taking the time to read and make adjustments to his opponent.  
• Has a tendency to pace himself during fights. He'll often fight in spurts, sometimes having significant portions of rounds where he isn't very active. Often slow in setting up his punches.
• Although he has good power in both hands, Hopkins doesn't have the knockout power he once had. Hopkins has never really been a knockout puncher and won't win this fight by KO. If Hopkins wants to win this fight, he'll have to win by decision. 

Positives for Murat

• Fundamentally sound counter puncher with good defense. Employs classic European high guard defense (think Arthur Abraham and Winky Wright) and patiently waits for opportunities to counter. Has good boxing IQ.
• Is a "come forward" boxer who is very good at using his feet to cut the ring off and walk his opponents down. Punches well to the body and, despite his patience, has good punch output.  
• Has relatively quick hands and throws short punches well, which may help against an excellent inside fighter like Hopkins.
• Only loss was to Nathan Cleverly, a solid fighter who is currently ranked the #3 light heavyweight boxer in the world.
• Is 18 years younger than Hopkins. If Hopkins shows signs of slowing down, Murat may be able to outwork and wear him down.
• Murat has an experienced trainer in Ulli Wegner who has trained other top German fighters such as Arthur Abraham and Marco Huck.

Negatives for Murat

• At the end of the day is a B-level/2nd-tier fighter who isn't nearly as skilled or experienced as Hopkins.
• Murat hasn't fought a professional fight in over a year (last fight: June, 2012). Murat will be fighting in the United States for the first time in front of a hostile, pro-Hopkins crowd.
• Hopkins is taller than Murat (6'1" vs. 5'10") and has a 5" reach advantage. Murat has had trouble in the past vs. taller, longer fighters (e.g., Nathan Cleverly).
• Cuts off ring well, but is not a good finisher and does not punch with a lot of power. Will often stick with high guard posture and passive defense at times when it may be preferable to be more aggressive.

Prefight Summary

This should be an easy fight for Hopkins. Hopkins is 48 years old, but has showed no signs of slowing down in recent years. Hopkins still has elite technique and defensive skills which should be more than enough to outpoint Murat, who is a good fighter but is a couple levels below Hopkins skill-wise. Murat is fighting outside of Europe for the first time in his career and may be rusty as he hasn't fought in well over a year. (Murat's last fight was in June 2012 vs. Sandro Siproshvili, a European journeyman who's lost 11 of his last 15 fights.) 

Aside from his advantages in skill and experience, Hopkins has physical advantages in height and reach which will be very difficult for Murat to overcome. (Murat has struggled in the past vs. skilled taller fighters with a reach advantage.) Even if Murat can overcome Hopkins' length and get into an inside brawl he faces a very daunting task as Hopkins is one of the best, if not the best, inside fighter of his generation. Murat does not have KO power so he likely won't win with a lucky punch; Murat's only chance to win is if Hopkins shows his age (which is highly possible at 48 years old) and Murat is able to take advantage by outworking Hopkins and beating him to the punch on the inside.

But the bottom line on this fight is Hopkins is the more experienced fighter with superior skills and higher boxing IQ, and is fighting an hour from his hometown in front of a pro-Hopkins crowd. It would take an epic meltdown from Hopkins to blow this fight. Murat's patient, deliberate style should be easy for Hopkins to figure out and break down as the fight progresses; expect Hopkins to win by a wide unanimous decision.

Prediction: Hopkins by decision 

Alvarado vs. Provodnikov: postfight analysis (scoring recap + summary)

Outcome: Provodnikov defeats Alvarado by RTD at the end of the 10th round to become interim WBO light welterweight champion
Judge Scorecards (at time of stoppage): Dennis Nelson 97-90 | Robert Hoyle 98-90 | Levi Martinez 96-92

Master Class Boxing Scorecard: 96-93 (Provodnikov)

(click here to view CompuBox PunchStats)

Round-by-Round Scoring Recap

Round 1: Clear round for Provodnikov. Provodnikov moving really well, cutting off ring and applying pressure much better than I thought he would vs. the more mobile Alvarado. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 10-9 Provodnikov

Round 2: Alvarado moving much better in this round, using his jab to keep Provodnikov at bay. This was how I expected Alvarado to come out and fight. Clear round for Alvarado. For the most part in the first 5-6 rounds, Alvarado did successfully outbox Provodnikov with lateral movement and timely jabs and combinations which I'd thought would be his formula to winning this fight. 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 19-19 Even

Round 3: 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 29-28 Alvarado

Round 4:  10-10, Score: 39-38 Alvarado

Round 5:  10-9 Alvarado, Score: 49-47 Alvarado

Round 6: Provodnikov landed the more vicious shots in this round, but was clearly outworked by Alvarado. 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 59-56 Alvarado

Round 7: Alvarado won the first half of the round staying busy behind his jab but Provodnikov tagged Alvarado with a series of vicious shots throughout the second half of the round to take Round 7. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 68-66 Alvarado

Round 8: Provodnikov's pressure proves to be too overwhelming for Alvarado. Alvarado down twice in this round, the first two times he's been knocked down in his career. To his credit, Alvarado got up and fought very bravely but this was the beginning of the end for him. 10-7 Provodnikov, Score: 76-75 Provodnikov

Round 9:  Provodnikov continues to apply heavy pressure on Alvarado. Alvarado's recovered a bit from the two knockdowns in the previous round but is having difficulty withstanding the pressure. Clear round for Provodnikov. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 86-84 Provodnikov

Round 10:  Another clear round for Provodnikov. Alvarado is still attempting to move and jab (which he had success with in the earlier rounds) but Provodnikov's pressure is too much. Alvarado is getting tagged with body shots and combinations. Alvarado hits Provodnikov with a few solid shots but Provodnikov walks right through his punches and keeps attacking. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 96-93 Provodnikov

In between the 10th and 11th rounds, Alvarado retires on his stool.

Postfight Summary

Prediction: Alvarado by decision
Outcome: Provodnikov by RTD

I predicted the outcome of this fight incorrectly but the dynamics of the fight were generally what I expected. In my prefight analysis summary, I said the fight would come down to Alvarado's lateral movement and ability to box effectively on the outside vs. Provodnikov's high-pressure, power punching style. I felt that Alvarado would likely earn the decision by using his foot speed advantage to box outside and keep Provodnikov at bay with his length and power, but that there was a decent chance Provodnikov's pressure would overwhelm Alvarado resulting in Provodnikov getting the win by TKO/KO.

After Round 1 it was clear to me that I: 1) underestimated Provodnikov's lateral movement and ability to pressure more mobile fighters and 2) overestimated Alvarado's foot speed and ability to keep Provodnikov at bay. Provodnikov cut off the ring extremely well in this round and set the tone for how he'd wear Alvarado down round by round. I'd thought Alvarado would be able to use lateral movement and boxing skills to carry the fight similar to Tim Bradley in his more successful rounds vs. Provodnikov and similar to his second fight vs. Brandon Rios. The problem with my analysis was that Mike Alvarado does not have anywhere near the lateral movement and boxing skills Tim Bradley has and Provodnikov is a better pressure fighter than Rios and packs an even harder punch (especially when going to the body).

Alvarado actually did have a lot of success early in the fight boxing on the outside, confusing Provodnikov by switching to a southpaw stance and keeping Provodnikov honest with lead right hands and uppercuts (after 6 rounds I actually had Alvarado winning the fight by 3 points), but Provodnikov's foot movement and ability to cut Alvarado off in the ring was a lot better than what I thought it would be. Alvarado was outlanding Provodnikov in most of the early rounds, but Provodnikov wore Alvarado down round-by-round with vicious power shots and eventually caught up to him in the 8th round, knocking him down twice (the first two knockdowns of Alvarado's career) in what would signal the beginning of the end of the fight.

Another key to Provodnikov winning the fight was his excellent chin. There were a few spots in the early rounds of the fight where Alvarado did stand in and brawl; Alvarado actually had good success in most of these exchanges and landed nearly half (49.7%) of his power punches over the first six rounds of the fight. The difference in the fight was that Provodnikov's chin was able to withstand those power punches (he actually laughed many of them off), while Provodnikov's power eventually broke Alvarado down.

This was a highly entertaining fight which should leave fight fans looking forward to seeing both Provodnikov and Alvarado (especially Provodnikov) fight again. Provodnikov has proven that he's a better boxer than a lot of people give him credit for and, under Freddie Roach's tutelage, the sky's the limit.  However, it remains to be seen whether Provodnikov can defeat the uber-elite boxers in his weight range (Mayweather, Pacquaio, Bradley, Marquez, Garcia, Matthysse). Provodnikov's defense is still very suspect... Alvarado did land 46% of his power shots in the fight while Bradley landed 43% of his power shots in his fight vs. Provodnikov back in March. As outstanding as Provodnikov's chin is (and it's possible he has the best chin in the sport), he will never be an elite boxer if he continues to allow his opponents to land power punches at such a high percentage. His defense must improve, especially given the plethora of power punchers in the light welterweight and welterweight divisions he fights in. 

Hope you enjoyed this blog! Our next analysis will discuss the October 19th fight between Bernard Hopkins and Karo Murat.

Alvarado vs. Provodnikov: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Mike Alvarado (34-1, 23 KOs) vs. Ruslan Provodnikov (22-2, 15 KOs)
Location: 1STBANK Center, Broomfield, Denver, Colorado
Date: October 19, 2013
Weight class: Light Welterweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: (Interim) WBO Light Welterweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Alvarado -120, Provodnikov +100 (5 Dimes, 10/19/13)
Purse: Alvarado: $1.3 million, Provodnikov: $600,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarado #3 ranked junior welterweight, Provodnikov #6 ranked junior welterweight
Style: Alvarado: Orthodox, Provodnikov: Orthodox

Positives for Alvarado

• Aggressive boxer-puncher with very good punching power. Versatile boxer who can brawl but has very solid boxing skills. Much more versatile boxer than Provodnikov.
• The fight is taking place in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, where the crowd will be decidedly pro-Alvarado.
• Alvarado has excellent stamina, which may play an important role given that the fight is taking place in Denver. (In high altitude cities such as Denver, low air pressure makes it more difficult to breathe.) Alvarado's stamina generally allows him to finish strong in the later rounds of fights.
• Alvarado is not a great technician but has better boxing skills, and much better lateral movement and speed than Provodnikov.
• Alvarado is the more experienced fighter who has beaten every fighter he has faced. (Alvarado's lone loss was in October, 2012 to Brandon Rios, a loss which he avenged 5 months later.) 
• While he did lose by TKO to Rios, Alvarado has shown a good chin throughout his career. Alvarado has never been knocked down in a fight.
• Although they are fighting at the same weight, Alvarado is a naturally taller, bigger man than Provodnikov. He will likely come in to the fight weighing a bit more than Provodnikov. Alvarado also has a 3" reach advantage which he may use to stay outside and outbox Provodnikov.

Negatives for Alvarado

•  Alvarado's defense, while better than Provodnikov's, is far from great. This and his inclination at times to brawl (rather than box) in fights may leave him wide open to Provodnikov's vicious body and head shots. Provodnikov hits harder than Rios (who beat Alvarado by TKO), so if Alvarado doesn't protect himself it could get ugly for him. Alvarado is by no means a defensive-minded fighter so there may be at least a couple spots in the fight where he gets himself into serious trouble.
• Has Alvarado fully recovered from the Rios fights? While Alvarado has shown a very good chin in the past, there are questions as to how he's been affected by the two brutal wars he's had over the past year with Rios. Boxers have a history of losing confidence and becoming gun shy after wars such as the ones he had with Rios. 
• Alvarado has good boxing skills, but he's far from a master technician. Alvarado doesn't have the skills or lateral movement ability of Timothy Bradley, a fighter Provodnikov had some success against and almost beat. The skill disparity between Alvarado and Provodnikov isn't so great that Provodnikov won't be able to make adjustments and even find spots where he may be able to outbox Alvarado.

Positives for Provodnikov

• Very good pressure fighter with an excellent punch. Superb inside boxer who hits hard to the body. Has the ability to knockout any opponent at any time. Knocked Timothy Bradley (who has an excellent chin) down for the first time in his career in the 12th round of their fight. Almost pulled out a victory against Bradley, who is currently ranked the #3 pound-for-pound boxer in the world. 
• Excellent chin. Has never been knocked down in his career.
• Spent some time training for the fight with Freddie Roach, a trainer known for helping boxers improve lateral movement, foot speed, and defense - advantages Alvarado currently possesses over Provodnikov.
• Very humble, likeable boxer who appears to have tremendous inner strength and will to win.
• Provodnikov's fights are always competitive. His only two losses were close, controversial decisions.
• Provodnikov's boxing skills, while not as good as Alvarado's, are underrated. He has shown some ability in previous fights to adapt to his opponent's fighting style and make necessary adjustments.

Negatives for Provodnikov

• Lacks speed and mobility. This was the difference in his loss vs. Bradley. Alvarado has the speed and lateral movement advantage vs. Provodnikov, something Provodnikov will have to find a way to overcome if he wants to win this fight.
• Provodnikov's boxing skills are underrated, but he is not as skilled or as experienced as Alvarado is as a fighter.
• Provodnikov is fighting in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, facing a hostile pro-Alvarado crowd and high altitude air he isn't used to.
• Other than Bradley, who has Provodnikov really fought? Provodnikov's most well-known previous opponents have been journeyman DeMarcus "Chop Chop" Corley and Mauricio Herrera, a fighter he lost to by unanimous (though very close) decision. (Alvarado beat Maricio Herrera fairly convincingly a little over a year after Herrera beat Provodnikov.)
• Swells/cuts very easily. Could be an issue as the fight progresses.
• Provodnikov is only 5'6", a few inches shorter than Alvarado. Alvarado is also the naturally bigger man with a 3" reach advantage. 

Prefight Summary

Like Bradley after the Provodnikov fight, I believe Alvarado learned his lesson after the first Rios fight on when to brawl vs. when to box. Alvarado lost the first Rios fight by brawling but won the rematch by staying outside and using lateral movement and his skill advantage to outbox Rios. I see Alvarado fighting the same kind of fight he fought in the second Rios fight to elude Provodnikov's pressure and get the decision.

Provodnikov hits even harder than the power punching Rios and certainly poses a significant threat against a defensively mediocre Alvarado, but Provodnikov is smaller, less mobile, and doesn't have the workrate or hand speed Rios used to stay competitive vs. Alvarado. Provodnikov has more than a puncher's chance to win this fight, and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him win by KO... especially considering Alvarado's natural inclination to brawl when facing tremendous pressure. But Alvarado fought smart and largely resisted his inclination to brawl in the second Rios fight... I see no reason why he wouldn't do the same against Provodnikov. Alvarado's stamina is outstanding so I don't see Provodnikov catching a tired Alvarado with a lucky punch in later rounds.

Provodnikov will have his moments but Alvarado's mobility, skill advantage, experience, and motivation to fight well in front of a raucous home crowd should carry the day. Provodnikov has a puncher's chance to win by KO, especially if Alvarado decides to engage in a brawl, but the most likely outcome of this fight is Alvarado by decision.

Prediction: Alvarado by decision 

Bradley vs. Marquez: postfight analysis

Outcome: Bradley defeats Marquez by split decision to retain WBO welterweight title
Judge Scorecards: Robert Hoyle 115-113 | Patricia Morse Jarman 116-112 | Glenn Farman 113-115

Master Class Boxing Scorecard: 116-112 (Bradley)

(click here to view judges' round-by-round scoring)

(click here to view CompuBox PunchStats)

(click here to view full postfight press conference)

Round-by-Round Scoring Recap

Round 1: Close, feel-out round. Bradley threw more punches (which would be the norm throughout the fight) and established his jab early but Marquez landed a few more punches than Bradley and landed the cleaner, harder punches. Marquez landed a few left hooks and uppercuts to edge out a very close round. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 10-9 Marquez

Round 2: Clear round for Bradley. Bradley jabbed very effectively and used lateral movement well to elude Marquez's counter-punching skills. Bradley landed a hard right hand, solid body shot to the liver area and got the best of Marquez in a nice exchange of punches towards the end of the round. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 19-19 Even

Round 3: Very close round. Marquez showed good timing and landed the harder, more accurate shots but Bradley continued to jab effectively, throwing and landing more punches in the round. Bradley moved well and continued to control the pace. Close, but key to round was Bradley outworked Marquez 38-25 in punches thrown and landed 10 punches to Marquez's 6. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 29-28 Bradley

Round 4: Another close round. Bradley is still controlling the pace of the fight with his left jab and movement and is continuing to outwork Marquez in terms of punches thrown and landed. However, Marquez landed the more solid, accurate punches in the round and got the better of Bradley in a nice exchange near the end of the round. Referee Robert Byrd briefly stopped the fight in the first half of the round and instructed Marquez's corner to wipe the excess vaseline off his body. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 38-38 Even

Round 5: Yet another competitive round that follows the pattern of most of the previous rounds. Bradley is having success with the left jab and is clearly controlling the pace of the fight. Again Bradley is outworking Marquez, throwing and landing more punches (and landing at a higher percentage than Marquez). When Marquez is landing, his punches tend to be more accurate and powerful than the shots Bradley landed but Bradley has not been affected by Marquez's power and outworked Marquez enough to clearly win the round (though the round was somewhat close). Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 48-47 Bradley

Round 6: More of the same. Bradley is continuing to outwork Marquez and is still controlling the fight with his left jab and foot movement. Marquez is still landing a few solid, accurate shots but Bradley is countering Marquez's punches with right hands and left hooks of his own. Bradley is consistently beating Marquez to the punch with his hand speed, countering well when Marquez throws punches. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 58-56 Bradley

Round 7: Another round very similar to previous rounds. Marquez is landing solid punches in spots but Bradley is consistently outworking Marquez and controlling the pace of the fight with his jabs, lateral movement, and hands speed. In this round, Bradley throws and lands more jabs than in any of the previous rounds. Bradley is the more active fighter in this round (as he's seemingly been in every round of the fight thus far) and his hand and foot speed advantage is becoming more apparent. Bradley landed 19 punches to Marquez's 13 in Round 7. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 68-65 Bradley

Round 8: Marquez lands a few solid right hands, including a hard body shot towards the end of the round but again Bradley is controlling the pace of the fight, outworking Marquez with his jabs and speed advantage. Bradley lands a few multiple punch combinations to take the round. Neither fighter's punches is hurting the other but Bradley's work rate and ability to elude Marquez's counter punches are the difference in this round and the fight overall. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 78-74 Bradley

Round 9:  Clear round for Marquez. Marquez started the round aggressive and landed the more accurate and powerful punches. Marquez outlands Bradley for the first time in the fight since Round 1 (22 punches landed for Marquez; 16 in favor of Bradley). Marquez is effective with his straight right hand and lands a couple of nice combinations to win the round going away. This is Marquez's best round in the fight. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 87-84 Bradley

Round 10:  Most exciting round of the fight thus far. Numerous flurries of punches in this round. Bradley scored a few nice combinations in the round but Marquez countered with his own, which got the crowd (a pro-Marquez crowd which up to this round had been frustrated with the lack of action from both fighters) behind Marquez again. Marquez landed a few solid shots in this round, including a right uppercut early and a clean body shot towards the end of the round. However, Bradley appeared to control the round overall with (similar to previous rounds) his work rate, jab, and movement in the ring. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 97-93 Bradley

Round 11: Marquez is noticeably more active in this round than he's been in most previous rounds, stalking Bradley and appearing to throw and land more meaningful punches overall. Bradley is less active (perhaps a bit fatigued) and mostly resorts to landing single shots before retreating. Marquez lands a few nice body shots in the round. Neither fighter lands any huge punches but Marquez wins the round primarily due to lack of activity from Bradley, who was mostly on the defensive. (It's likely Bradley knows he's ahead and is playing it safe.) Marquez had a 14-4 advantage in power shots landed in Round 11. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 106-103 Marquez

Round 12:  Close round. Marquez continues to stay aggressive in this round, stalking Bradley who is using good movement to avoid Marquez's aggression. As in previous rounds, Bradley is having success using his jab and movement to elude Marquez's advances. Bradley is also countering Marquez's aggression effectively with some solid shots. This was an even round, perhaps with Marquez slightly ahead until the final heavy exchange of punches towards the end of the round which Bradley got the best of, including a left hook that almost sends Marquez to the canvas. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 116-112 Bradley

Postfight Summary

This fight basically went as I predicted in my prefight analysis. Bradley clearly learned his lesson from the Provodnikov fight, using his speed advantage, defensive abilities, and jab to stay control the pace of the fight and outbox Marquez. Although Marquez tended to land the more crisp and accurate punches when he connected (Marquez did land more power punches than Bradley according to CompuBox stats), his overall activity was low compared to Bradley, who threw and landed more punches than Marquez. In terms of scoring, the difference in the fight for me was the middle four rounds (Rounds 5-8), all of which I gave to Bradley. 

Bradley has outstanding lateral movement and a low center of gravity elusiveness which made it difficult for Marquez to land any meaningful punches the whole fight. Marquez did land more power punches than Bradley in the fight, but Bradley was never in any serious danger during the fight. Marquez is one of the great counter punchers of this era but, as I expected, Bradley's lateral movement, speed advantage, and jab effectively neutralized Marquez's counter punching skills. If Bradley had fought the same fight he fought vs. Provodnikov (i.e., stood in the pocket and exchanged punches), Marquez probably would've won the fight. But it's very difficult for a counter puncher to outbox someone with such a significant foot and hand speed advantage and enough ring savvy to use those advantages to elude counters. There were quite a few close, competitive rounds but I thought Bradley clearly won the fight. (Interesting fact: the official judges disagreed on how to score 7 out of the 12 rounds in the fight, including 3 out of the first 4 rounds and 4 out of the last 5 rounds.) 

Bradley is still undefeated and is now Ring Magazine's #3 pound-for-pound boxer. So what's next for Bradley? Floyd Mayweather and Adrien Broner seem unlikely as they are both affiliated with Golden Boy Promotions, a direct competitor of Top Rank Promotions, the promotional company Tim Bradley is affiliated with. (Golden Boy and Top Rank have an oft-publicized acrimonious relationship.) It would seem the winner of the Pacquaio/Rios fight in November or the winner of the Alvarado/Provodnikov fight on HBO would be the most likely candidates. 

Hope you enjoyed this blog! Our next analysis will discuss the October 19th fight between Mike Alvarado and Ruslan Provodnikov.

Bradley vs. Marquez: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Timothy Bradley (30-0-0-1, 12 KOs) vs. Juan Manuel Marquez (55-6-1, 40 KOs)
Location: Thomas & Mack Center (UNLV), Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: October 12, 2013
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Marquez -140, Bradley +120 (5 Dimes, 10/12/13)
Purse: Marquez: $4 million, Bradley: $4.1 million (Note: Marquez guaranteed at least an additional $2 million from Mexican television rights and other sources of revenue so effective guaranteed purse for Marquez is $6 million)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Marquez #3 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked welterweight), Bradley #8 ranked pound-for-pound (#4 ranked welterweight).
Style: Marquez: Orthodox, Bradley: Orthodox

Positives for Marquez

• Excellent counter puncher. Unquestionably one of the best counter punchers of this generation. 
• Master technician. Outstanding technical savvy with ability to adjust to opponent's tendencies during fight.
• Not as quick as Bradley or Manny Pacquiao, but has quick hand speed and reflexes.
• Highly accurate counter puncher with excellent timing. Although a counter puncher by nature, will be aggressive when he needs to be. 
• Versatile fighter with good knockout power in both hands. 
• Significantly more experienced than Bradley. Participated in more title and big money PPV fights than Bradley.
• Fights with tremendous heart; seems to fight at his best in adverse situations.
• Crowd at Thomas & Mack Center will be overwhelmingly pro-Marquez, which could influence not only the fight, but the judges' scoring.
• With the exception of his fight vs. current #1 pound-four-pound Floyd Mayweather, has been highly competitive in every fight of his 20-year career. Fight vs. Floyd was only non-controversial loss of career. First pro fight of career was 1st round disqualification loss (due to headbutt) to boxer he was heavily favored against.
• At 40 years old, stronger than he's ever been. Marquez's new strength and conditioning coach (Angel Heredia) has helped greatly improve Marquez's strength and stamina.
• Future first ballot Hall of Famer. Arguably one of the top 5 Mexican boxers of all time. Arguably the #3 boxer pound-for-pound fighting today, behind Floyd Mayweather and Andre Ward.    
• Has a Hall of Fame trainer (Nacho Beristain), who has trained him since he was eight years old.

Negatives for Marquez

• Though he has shown improvement with age, Marquez is 40 years old. Marquez is past his prime, and hasn't fought in 10 months, one of the longest layoffs of his career. There is a possibility his age may show in this fight.
•  Marquez is quick, but he's at a clear hand and foot speed disadvantage to Bradley. Marquez had even greater speed disadvantage vs. Pacquiao but Bradley is more technically savvy than Pacquiao and usually doesn't allow himself to get out of defensive position and open to counter punching.
• Marquez has very good power in both hands and has gotten stronger over the past couple of years but his power is overrated. Marquez does not hit as hard as Provodnikov and likely will not be able to KO Bradley (unless Bradley is still feeling effects from Provodnikov fight which is highly possible). 
• Is Marquez a cheater? Fighters rarely gain strength as they move up in weight; yet Marquez appears to have done so. He's bulked up significantly over the past couple of years, yet has retained his quickness (and has arguably gotten even quicker) which is highly unusual given his age and the fact that athletes who bulk up almost always lose some quickness. Marquez's strength gains have come under new trainer Angel Heredia, who admitted before a federal grand jury that he supplied illegal substances to numerous elite athletes, including former Olympic gold medalists Marion Jones and Tim Montgomery. (He was the key witness in their cases.) Heredia went to the extent of changing his last name a few years ago in an attempt to escape the doping controversy.

Positives for Bradley

• Bradley is an undefeated fighter who has displayed tremendous heart and willpower in his last couple of fights vs. Manny Pacquiao and Ruslan Provodnikov
• Although Marquez is quick, Bradley has a clear quickness, hand speed, and foot speed advantage.Though his fight-of-the year candidate match vs. Provodnikov turned into a brawl, Bradley can be a highly elusive fighter. Bradley moves very well and has incredible stamina due to his conditioning.
• Technically savvy. Like Marquez, has ability to adjust to opponent's tendencies during fight. Not as technically savvy as Marquez but, like Marquez, is one of the best counter punchers in boxing today.
• High volume puncher. Unlike Pacquiao, however, Bradley's defense is usually good enough that he doesn't leave himself open to a lot of counterpunching (his last fight vs. Provodnikov being an exception).
• Incredible chin, as shown in his last fight vs. Provodnikov. Never been KO'ed and his knockdown in the 12th round vs. Provodnikov was the first time he's been knocked down in his career.
• Is a naturally bigger man than Marquez. On fight night will weigh at least a few pounds more than Marquez.
• Not overly powerful (only 12 KOs in his career and 1 KO in past 6 years), but has enough power to keep his opponents honest.
• Currently in his prime and has a 10-year age advantage vs. Marquez (30 years old vs. 40 years old).
• Current WBO welterweight title holder. Is extremely motivated to retain title and silence doubters after the highly controversial Pacquiao decision last year.

Negatives for Bradley

• Is Bradley still feeling the effects of the Provodnikov fight a few months ago? Bradley admitted having headaches, balance problems, and slurred speech for weeks after the fight. There is an established history of boxers losing confidence and becoming gun shy after brutal wars such as the Provodnikov fight. His fight vs. Provodnikov may leave him more susceptible to being KO'ed vs. Marquez.
• While a very technically sound boxer and counterpuncher, Bradley is not as technically skilled/savvy as Marquez. Marquez is also the much more experienced boxer.
• Bradley has decent power, but is power is far from great. Bradley will likely not KO Marquez; he will have to win the fight by decision.

Summary

In my opinion, Bradley has learned his lesson from the Provodnikov fight and will use his speed advantage and lateral movement to set the pace early (as opposed to engaging in a sustained brawl with an all-time great counter puncher). Bradley is a high volume, aggressive puncher but has the quickness, speed, and elusive defensive ability to stay out of trouble vs. Marquez's effective counter punching ability. Bradley has incredible stamina so should be able to move effectively and avoid the brunt of Marquez's power for 12 rounds. Marquez will likely be effective at times, but Bradley has a great chin (much better than Pacquiao's or anyone else Marquez has ever fought that matter with the exception of maybe Marco Antonio Barrera) and should be able to withstand any pressure Marquez puts on him with his chin and lateral movement.When fighting smart, Bradley is only one level below Mayweather in terms of elusiveness and ability to defend against pressure; which is excellent as Mayweather is certainly one of the greats, if not the all-time greatest in that regard. 

I think Bradley's punch volume, hand and foot speed advantage, and defensive elusiveness will overcome Marquez's counter punching ability and his advantages in technical skill and power to win the fight. My only major concern is whether or not Bradley's skills and/or confidence have diminished as a result of the Provodnikov fight, a brutal fight which, by his own admission, greatly affected him both mentally and physically.

Prediction: Bradley by decision