Saturday, November 9, 2013

Garcia vs. Martinez: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Mikey Garcia (32-0-0, 27 KOs) vs. Roman Martinez (27-1-2, 16 KOs)
Location: American Bank Center, Corpus Christi, Texas
Date: November 9, 2013
Weight class: Super Featherweight (130 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Super Featherweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Garcia -1500, Martinez +1000 (5 Dimes, 11/9/13)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia - Ring Magazine featherweight champion, Martinez - #3 ranked junior lightweight
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Martinez: Orthodox


Positives for Garcia

  • Very good/great boxing technician with excellent punching power. Has one punch KO power but can also wear you down through the fight with powerful, accurate punches. 27 of Garcia's 32 victories (84%) have been by TKO or KO. If not the hardest, one of the hardest punchers in boxing pound-for-pound.
  • Despite excellent punching power, is an extremely patient fighter who prefers to box and wait for opportunities to counter rather than brawl. A boxer-puncher with great technical skills and outstanding punching power so is capable of beating opponents by boxing or brawling.  
  • Very intelligent, high-IQ boxer. College graduate who is very mature for his age and is interested in becoming a police officer after his boxing career. 
  • Young (only 25 years old), but has good pedigree and decent experience. Comes from a well-known boxing family with a father and two brothers who are trainers and a brother (his current trainer, Robert Garcia) who was former IBF Super Featherweight champion of the world. Robert Garcia is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing, as he's the reigning BWAA Trainer of the Year and has been voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for the past two years.  
  • Had a very strong amateur career. Won gold at the 2004 National Junior Golden Gloves championships and has beaten the likes of current undefeated lightweight champion Danny Garcia during amateurs.
  • Is now working with strength and conditioning coach Alex Ariza, who's worked extensively with Manny Pacquiao in the past. 


Negatives for Garcia

  • Sometimes starts slow in fights while figuring his opponents out.
  • Garcia is a relatively untested fighter. Most talented fighter on Garcia's resume is Juan Manuel Lopez, who lost his last 3 title fights (including his most recent fight vs. Garcia) by TKO due to a weak chin. The only other notable fighter on Garcia's resume is Orlando Salido, the current WBO featherweight champion but has 12 losses to his credit. Garcia does not have a lot of experience vs. solid fighters.
  • This is Garcia's first fight at super featherweight (130). 
  • Due to patience, is not a particularly high-volume fighter, which could work against him vs. an aggressive, high-volume boxer like Martinez.


Positives for Martinez

  • Hyper-aggressive, come-forward boxer with very high punch volume. Is 3-0-1 in last 4 title fights primarily on his ability to outwork his opponents. 
  • Has an excellent chin. Has never been knocked down or stopped by TKO in his career.
  • Has excellent stamina and conditioning. Despite his high pressure style, Martinez rarely tires during the later rounds of fights
  • Good pressure fighter who prefers to brawl, but at times has shown ability to box effectively.
  • Mentally tough boxer. Displays great heart and determination during all of his fights. High-effort fighter.
  • Doesn't have great KO power but has good, solid punching power to keep his opponents honest.
  • Older and more experienced fighter than Garcia. Is the current and defending WBO Super Featherweight world champion. Won the WBO Super Featherweight championship previously in 2009 before losing the title and regaining it last year vs. Miguel Beltran.


Negatives for Martinez

  • Martinez's defense is very suspect. His aggressive style often leaves him very exposed to counters, which could be disastrous vs. a power puncher like Garcia.
  • Despite being a two-time super featherweight champion of the world, his skills are best classified as "2nd-tier," a full level below Garcia's. Garcia clearly has the superior talent, skills, and power in this matchup.
  • Often is a slow starter in fights, which he likely can't afford to do vs. Garcia. 
  • Martinez's last three fights have been close, split decisions vs. opponents nowhere near the talent or skill of Garcia.


Prefight Summary

The bottom line here is this is a fight between an A-level boxer who may be well on his way to becoming one of the elite boxers in the sport for years to come vs. a B-level boxer who, despite having tremendous heart and determination, is not nearly as skilled or talented.

Martinez fights a highly aggressive style with high punch output - a style which has earned him two super featherweight titles against opponents who were sometimes more skilled or talented than he was. But Martinez has not fought anyone even approaching the level of skill or talent of Garcia. Martinez's style may give him success at times in early rounds (as Garcia is sometimes a slow starter), but Garcia will eventually figure out angles from which to counter with his powerful punches. Martinez has subpar defensive skills, so I'd expect Garcia to gradually overwhelm him with power shots. Martinez has a great chin and has never been knocked down in his career, but he has never fought a fighter with the power of Mikey Garcia. Martinez often doesn't mind taking punches to throw more punches but that will likely be his downfall vs. a puncher with Garcia's power.

In recent fights, Martinez has been able to obtain close, split decisions (in fights he otherwise likely would've lost by a wide margin), with aggression and high punch output. (In each of his last three fights one of the judges scored the fight against him by a wide margin, but Martinez was still able to pull out a win or split-decision draw.) There is a possibility Martinez could outwork Garcia (a very patient boxer who doesn't throw at a high volume), but Garcia is too accurate, skilled, and powerful of a puncher for Martinez to get a decision against, if the fight goes 12 rounds.

Martinez will give a great effort and show the same tremendous heart and determination he shows in all his fights but again, in a fight between an A-level fighter and a B-level fighter, the A-level fighter with the superior power, skills, boxing IQ, and talent will win nearly every time. Martinez doesn't have the defensive ability or boxing skills to avoid Garcia's counter punches and overwhelming power for 12 rounds.

Prediction: Garcia by TKO/KO 

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