Canelo vs. Rocky Fielding: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (50-1-2 34 KOs) vs. Rocky Fielding (27-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 15, 2018
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBA (Regular) World Super middleweight title
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line: Alvarez: -1600, Fielding: +1050 (5 Dimes, 12/14/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #3 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion [Alvarez is not ranked at super middleweight], Fielding: #9 ranked super middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Fielding: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

On American soil, Canelo Alvarez is (by far) the top PPV attraction in boxing today, with his last three fights over the past year and a half - his two most recent vs. Gennady Golovkin and another in May 2017 vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. - each selling over 1 million PPV buys. (Canelo's fights vs. Golovkin and Chavez Jr. had the highest PPV buy rates for boxing matches not involving Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson in 2002.)

But this past October, Canelo (supported by his promoter - the Oscar De La Hoya-backed Golden Boy Promotions) exited the traditional PPV model - which reportedly earned him well over $20 million for each of the aforementioned fights - to sign a 5-year, 11-fight contract worth at least $365 million with sports streaming service DAZN, the largest contract for a single athlete in sports history. Canelo's fight this Saturday vs. WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding will be Canelo's first fight since signing that contract and will be the first PPV-level fight DAZN has ever produced in the United States.

Right now, Canelo is on top of the boxing world. He's arguably the most popular fighter in the sport. He's coming off of the most high profile, biggest fight of the year and what was by far the biggest win of his career in his majority decision upset victory over at-the-time undefeated and Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound-ranked unified middleweight champion Golovkin - a fight in which Canelo secured his status as a Mexican boxing legend and future first ballot hall-of-famer. Although the scoring of the fight was highly controversial - most observers felt the fight was either a draw or that Canelo lost a close decision - Canelo's impressive performance largely cooled previous rampant suspicions of illegal performance-enhancing drug use by the Mexican fighter as he tested clean numerous times in the days and weeks leading up to the fight.

At just 28 years old, Canelo is still in the middle of his prime and has arguably still not yet even reached his peak as - including even both fights vs. Golovkin -  Canelo has improved with each fight since his lone loss in 2013 to Floyd Mayweather Jr. and is still seemingly getting better. Canelo is currently the Ring Magazine #3 ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world but on Saturday night will make his claim as #1 as he moves up to super middleweight to fight at 168 lbs for the first time in his career in an attempt to become the fifth Mexican fighter win a major world title in at least 3 weight divisions (Julio Cesar Chavez Sr., Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Jorge Arce).

Canelo will be making his debut on DAZN this Saturday night at Madison Square Garden vs. current WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding. Rocky is a British fighter who will be making his first defense of his super middleweight title after upsetting formerly undefeated champion Tyron Zeuge by 5th-round TKO in Zeuge's home country of Germany this past July. (Rocky entered the fight vs. Zeuge at as high as a 5-1 underdog.)

Rocky lacks experience, having not fought many top-level boxers other than Callum Smith - who he lost to in 2015 by 1st-round TKO. But since the loss to Smith - the only loss of his career - Rocky has been on a 3-year, 6-fight winning streak which included the title win over Zeuge and a win over well-respected British fighter John Ryder. Rocky, who has fought multiple times in his career as high as light heavyweight (178 lbs), has a 4.5" reach advantage over Canelo and is also expected to come into Saturday night's fight with a considerable size advantage.

Canelo vs. Rocky will be Canelo's first fight in New York City (and on the entire East Coast after several fights in the U.S. in Las Vegas, Texas, and Los Angeles) and will be Rocky's first fight outside of Europe (and only his second fight outside of his home country of England).

It's worth noting that Saturday night's fight is for the WBA "Regular" super middleweight championship. The WBA "Super" super middleweight championship is currently held by Callum Smith (who - as noted above - beat Fielding in 2015 by 1st-round TKO). Smith beat George Groves (by 7th-round KO) this past September in the World Boxing Super Series final to win the "Super" version of the WBA super middleweight championship.

Prefight Analysis

As an overwhelming (1-16) favorite who just two months ago signed the richest contract in the history of sports, it should be no surprise that I'm going with Canelo to win Saturday night's fight (and win convincingly).

But Rocky could make this fight tougher than expected. As a natural super middleweight who's even spent some of his career as a light heavyweight, Rocky will come into this fight with an advantage in size combined with respectable enough power to make things tough for Canelo, particularly in the early rounds. (With a 52% TKO/KO percentage, Rocky has knocked out most of the opponents he's faced - all of whom were bigger than Canelo in terms of size.) Rocky has above average combination punching skills and won't be afraid to trade punches with a smaller Canelo. For a super middleweight, Rocky moves well and has the ability to box while backing up, which should open up counterpunching opportunities when Canelo comes forward. Rocky will also come into Saturday's fight with a significant (4.5") reach advantage which - if combined with effective enough movement - could stymie Canelo's aggression.

Note that this is the 3rd consecutive week where the underdog in a high-profile fight will come into the ring with a size, height (Rocky is listed at 6'1" compared to Canelo at 5'8"), and reach advantage, complimented with an ability to move well. (Jose Pedraza last week vs. Vasyl Lomachenko and Tyson Fury the week before that vs. Deontay Wilder.) These qualities enabled the underdog in each of these fights to go the 12-round distance despite a loss by knockout being regarded as the most likely outcome.

Although limited athletically, Rocky has a versatile skill set and the fact is he did just a few months ago beat a heavily favored, undefeated world champion in that champion's home country to win his first title. Saturday night will be (by far) the biggest fight of Rocky's career and possibly even the most important night of his whole life - there is little question he will come to fight and lay it all on the line. Last year, Canelo looked impressive at a 164.5 lb cachet in winning a wide unanimous decision victory vs. a more talented fighter than Rocky in Chavez Jr. (none of the three judges even gave Chavez Jr. a single round). But Rocky is a bigger, tougher, more aggressive fighter than Chavez Jr. and will almost certainly put forth a greater effort than Chavez Jr. did. It shouldn't be much of a surprise at all if Rocky's size and reach in particular pose a much bigger problem than Canelo - who has fought as small as 140 lbs (super lightweight) early on in his career - ever anticipated.

But at the end of the day, Rocky I think lacks the athleticism and knockout power of elite super middleweights like Callum Smith and Gilberto Ramirez to compete with Canelo over 12 rounds. There's too much of a skill and hand speed discrepancy here - Rocky is the bigger fighter but I see Canelo wearing Rocky down and picking him apart with quick, accurate punch combinations in a similar fashion to how he picked apart Chavez Jr., who was bigger and had a better chin than Rocky. Rocky will throw more punches than Chavez Jr. did, but I only see that making Rocky - who has a habit of keeping his hands down after throwing punch combinations - even more susceptible to clean counterpunching.

Although only 28 years old, Canelo has the advantage of a wealth of experience vs. elite opponents and has fought against just about every style of fighter possible. Rocky is versatile, but is a straightforward,  British domestic-level boxer lacking the elite-level skills of fighters like Erislandy Lara, Mayweather, and Golovkin that have given Canelo problems in previous fights.

Rocky doesn't have anything that Canelo hasn't already seen; his size, reach, and movement could be a challenge for Canelo in the early rounds but his lack of athleticism, speed, and real knockout power should make it not too difficult for Canelo to adjust and figure out the timing of the British champion both offensively and defensively.

I see Canelo being somewhat cautious and patient early vs. a bigger super middleweight, but like him to either stop Rocky in the later rounds or win a wide unanimous decision. While I think a stoppage might be slightly more likely, I think both outcomes have a similar chance of occurring so will be placing an equal stake on each outcome. I will be attending this fight and looking forward to the action and seeing in person how well DAZN does with their first big fight in the United States!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Canelo by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 (.5 unit) 
2) Canelo by unanimous decision (.5 unit) 

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Lomachenko vs. Pedraza: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Vasyl Lomachenko (11-1, 9 KOs) vs. Jose Pedraza (25-1, 12 KOs)
Location: The Theater at Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 8, 2018
Weight class: Lightweight (135 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBO World and WBA Super World lightweight titles
TV: ESPN
Line: Lomachenko: -3700, Pedraza: +2600 (5 Dimes, 12/7/18)
Purse: Lomachenko: $1 million, Pedraza: $350,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Lomachenko: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine lightweight champion, Pedraza: #3 ranked lightweight
Style: Lomachenko: Southpaw, Pedraza: Orthodox
Referee: Harvey Dock

Why you should watch this fight

Despite recent impressive wins by Canelo Alvarez and Oleksandr Usyk that moved them up the pound-for-pound rankings, the two fighters most frequently touted as pound-for-pound the best fighters in the sport of boxing are Vasyl Lomachenko and Terence Crawford. Crawford, an undefeated welterweight who - like Lomachenko is promoted by Bob Arum's Top Rank Boxing promotional company - staked his claim this past October as the top boxer in the sport with an impressive 12th-round TKO victory over a then-undefeated, highly-touted fighter in Jose Benavidez Jr.

Lomachenko - who is currently rated as the #1 fighter in the sport by both Ring Magazine and ESPN - is coming off of one of the better performances of his career this past May with a 10th round TKO victory vs. highly regarded Jorge Linares to win the WBA lightweight title, making him the fastest fighter in the 120+ year history of boxing to win major titles in three weight classes (doing so after only 12 professional fights). Lomachenko is looking to top Crawford's performance this past October Saturday night in a unification title fight vs. WBO lightweight champion Jose Pedraza, a Puerto Rican fighter who should have ample crowd support within the confines of Madison Square Garden in New York City - the city with the largest population of Puerto Ricans in the world.

Pedraza - who represented Puerto Rico as a lightweight at the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing - is a crafty, defensively-solid fighter who moves well on his feet and can fight from either the orthodox or southpaw stance. Pedraza doesn't quite have the technical skills or power of Lomachenko's previous opponent (Linares) but he will enjoy a 5.5" reach advantage coming into Saturday night's fight and is a more natural lightweight than Lomachenko, who will be fighting at lightweight for just the second time in his professional career. Pedraza was stopped nearly two years ago in his final fight as a super featherweight (130 lbs) by a 22-year old Gervonta Davis - in what has been the only loss of his career - but has won three straight unanimous decision since then after moving up to lightweight, including a unanimous decision over Raymundo Beltran in his last fight for the WBO lightweight title.

Lomachenko, a two-time Olympic gold medalist who has arguably had the greatest amateur career in the history of boxing (highlighted by those two Olympic gold medals and a career amateur record of 396-1), is a historically great talent who - after only 12 professional fights - is already a lock for the hall-of-fame. The question now is whether he will continue to live up to the hype as possibly the best fighter in the sport today - and possibly the best fighter of the post-Mayweather era. Lomachenko has won his last eight fights by stoppage; Saturday night's fight vs. a lightweight champion in Pedraza -who has been stopped in the past by a possible future Lomachenko opponent in Gervonta Davis - will be the latest gauge of Lomachenko's greatness.

Prefight Analysis

So this fight doesn't require much extended analysis. Lomachenko is (by far) the heaviest favorite I've done a prediction for (a 1-37 favorite at the time of this writing), so there should be no surprise that I'm taking him to win (and win convincingly).

I mean there's probably at least some value in taking a one-loss champion with very solid, world-class skills in Pedraza at massive 26-1 odds. Pedraza will actually come into tomorrow night's fight with some of the same qualities Tyson Fury possessed in last week's classic heavyweight title fight with Deontay Wilder (which most felt Fury won as an underdog). Like Fury, Pedraza is essentially an ambidextrous boxer who can frustrate any opponent by giving different looks from both the orthodox and southpaw stances. Like Fury, Pedraza is an at times awkward fighter adept at throwing punches from unorthodox angles. Like Fury, Pedraza comes into this fight with a reach advantage (a significant 5.5" reach advantage over Lomachenko in tomorrow night's fight) and moves very well on his feet, which should give Pedraza some ability to elude Lomachenko's attack (as prodigious as his attack may be) from distance. And like Fury, Pedraza is the slightly taller, naturally bigger fighter so might be able to use his size advantage combined with quick hand speed to make the fight physically difficult for Lomachenko on the inside.

Pedraza - as he showed in his most recent fight vs. Beltran and even in the only loss of his career vs. Davis - is a very tough fighter who I think could give Lomachenko problems for a few rounds with his versatility, movement, and ability to throw punches from unpredictable angles (and in this fight potentially throw those punches from distance given his significant reach advantage). It's also essential to point out that tomorrow night's fight will be Lomachenko's first fight after a shoulder surgery in late May to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. (Lomachenko injured the shoulder in the second round of his last fight vs. Linares which affected his performance throughout the rest of the fight.)

But unless Lomachenko suffers another freak injury - as with every fighter Lomachenko has faced since his 2014 loss to Orlando Salido in only his second fight as a pro - the talent gap between Lomachenko and Pedraza will be too much for Pedraza to overcome. Despite his savvy and legitimate world-class skills, the rub with Pedraza is that he doesn't have the punching power or athleticism Linares did in his fight with Lomachenko (which was very competitive) to keep Lomachenko honest and ward off his attack into the middle and late rounds.

I think as the fight progresses, Lomachenko will get to a point where he is able to stalk and apply effective pressure at will, eventually figuring out the timing on the at-times elusive and tricky Puerto Rican for a late stoppage victory. Pedraza is a tough, crafty, two-time world champion who will have some decent crowd support from what should be a decent-sized Puerto Rican contingent at Madison Square Garden tomorrow night. I expect him to eventually try to stand in close and exchange but Lomachenko is too elusive with his footwork on defense and accurate with his punch combinations offensively; he'll frustrate Pedraza and accumulate enough punches to most likely earn a stoppage in the later rounds, though there is a chance the fight goes the distance for a wide Lomachenko decision if Loma can't get the stoppage late.

Pedraza is a nice B+-level fighter and a worthy world champion but will be overmatched by Lomachenko's A+-level footwork and overall skills (as all recent Lomachenko opponents have been). Barring another injury, tomorrow night should be yet another dominant performance by Lomachenko in his quest to go down as one of the all-time greats in this history of the sport.

Prediction: Lomachenko by TKO/KO 

Recommended bet: Lomachenko by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 (.5 unit) 

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Wilder vs. Fury: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Deontay Wilder (40-0, 39 KOs) vs. Tyson Fury (27-0, 19 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: December 1, 2018
Weight class: Heavyweight
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World heavyweight title
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Wilder: -155, Fury: +145 (5 Dimes, 12/1/18)
Purses: Wilder: $4 million, Fury: $3 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Fury: #7 ranked heavyweight
Style: Fury: Orthodox, Wilder: Orthodox
Referee: Jack Reiss

Why you should watch this fight

Wilder vs. Fury is one of the most anticipated fights of the year - an intriguing matchup between two elite heavyweights with a combined record of 67-0 and 58 KOs for the WBC heavyweight title currently held by Wilder. The winner of this fight will be in line for a possible unification superfight with undefeated IBF, WBA, and WBO heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua in 2019 in a fight that may result in the first undisputed heavyweight champion since Lennox Lewis in 2000.

Wilder vs. Fury will be the first heavyweight fight in the U.S. carried as a pay-per-view since Mike Tyson's last fight vs. Kevin McBride in 2005.

Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury have similar gregarious, charismatic personalities but have contrasting boxing styles. Wilder - who is coming off of what might have been the best fight of the year thus far in his thrilling TKO victory over Luis Ortiz this past March - has knocked out every opponent he's faced in his career, relying nearly entirely on the brute, raw knockout power he possesses in both hands (particularly his devastating right hand, which has been the impetus for most of his knockouts). With previously undefeated mega-power punchers Sergei Kovalev and, more recently, Gennady Golovkin suffering losses over the past couple of years, Wilder - with a historically impressive knockout percentage of 98% over 40 career fights - is now widely considered to be the top knockout artist in the sport.

Fury, on the other hand, is perhaps the most all-around skilled boxer in the heavyweight division, having relied much less on power and more on his high boxing IQ and savvy to decisively outbox or stop every opponent he's faced in his boxing career. Despite being 6'9" and over 250 pounds, Fury moves extremely well for his size and is deceptively elusive on defense. Offensively, Fury possesses an awkward style from range (behind an 85" reach) featuring generally accurate punches from often unpredictable angles that perplexes many of his opponents, as well as an ability to box skillfully on the inside.

Whatever advantages Wilder possesses coming into this fight in terms of punching power and athleticism, Fury has comparable advantages in terms of technique and pure boxing skills.

Although Fury has fought twice this year, both fights were "tune-up" fights against inferior, C-level opponents; Fury hasn't fought a meaningful, competitive fight since his unanimous decision victory three years ago (November 2015) vs. Wladimir Klitschko. Since that fight with Klitschko, Fury announced his retirement from boxing and, shortly thereafter, experienced drug, alcohol, and mental health issues. During his retirement, Fury's weight ballooned to over 400 pounds; he's had to lose around 150 pounds over the past year to get back into top-level fighting shape.

Wilder vs. Fury is taking place at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. This will be the first fight promoted by Al Haymon's Premier Boxing Champions series to air on pay-per-view.

Why Deontay Wilder will win

Record of accomplishments: Wilder is the current WBC heavyweight champion, having held the title for nearly four years after a wide unanimous decision victory vs. Bermane Stiverne in January 2015. Wilder is 40-0, with 39 of those wins (98%) coming by knockout; the lone decision of Wilder's career came in the aforementioned unanimous decision victory vs. Stiverne. Wilder scored a 1st round KO victory vs. Stiverne in their rematch last year; with that knockout victory over Stiverne, Wilder has knocked out each of the 39 opponents he's faced in his professional career. A former football player (at the tight end position) in high school, Wilder didn't start boxing until he was 20 years old. But Wilder rose through the ranks quickly, winning the National Golden Gloves and U.S. national amateur heavyweight championships in 2007 - less than two years after he started boxing. The following year, Wilder earned a bronze medal as a heavyweight at the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing. Tonight, Wilder will be making his eighth consecutive title defense of his heavyweight belt.

Advantages in power and athleticism: Wilder has knocked out every opponent he's faced in his career (39 opponents in 40 fights) behind legitimate one-punch knockout power in both hands - especially his right hand which he uses to throw his favorite and most lethal punch, the overhand right. Wilder's punching power is arguably the most effective and sudden game changer in all of professional sports, on multiple occasions turning what were close and competitive fights into knockout victories (see Wilder's last fight vs. Ortiz and his recent fights vs. Gerald Washington and Artur Spilka).

With 19 KO victories in 27 fights (70% wins by TKO/KO), Fury has respectable punching power but doesn't have power comparable to Wilder and has less power than even Wilder's two most recent opponents (Ortiz and Stiverne). Fury's relative lack of sudden power should enable Wilder to take more chances and be more aggressive in certain spots than he was in the Ortiz and Stiverne fights. Fury is undefeated and elusive defensively, but he actually has been knocked down early by a smaller heavyweight with considerably less punching power than Wilder (2nd round of Fury's April 2013 fight vs. Steve Cunningham). If a small heavyweight with a career TKO/KO percentage of 33% who actually fought the majority of his career at cruiserweight (maximum weight of 200 lbs) can knock Fury down, one could surmise that the top knockout artist in the heavyweight division (and perhaps the entire sport of boxing) in Wilder should have a much easier time putting Fury on the canvas.

A former football, basketball, baseball, and track athlete in high school, Wilder is a superior athlete to Fury. Fury is bigger, moves well, and has very good positional footwork for his size but Wilder is the stronger, quicker, and faster fighter. It also doesn't help that Fury comes into this fight with questionable conditioning. An eye test suggests that Fury's gotten himself back in world-class shape but Fury hasn't fought a meaningful, competitive opponent in three years (both of his opponents since coming out of retirement were 16-1 underdog, C-level fighters) and he weighed over 400 lbs as recently as last year. It is more likely than not that Fury's years away from meaningful competition and significant weight fluctuation since his retirement have had more of a negative than positive effect on his boxing abilities.

Aggressive, yet cautious: Wilder has a reputation of being overly aggressive, likely because of his at-times off-balance, wild swinging punches. But he actually more frequently employs a more cautious form of aggression - particularly in the early rounds of fights - behind foot movement and a long (83" reach) jab. As shown in his fight vs. Ortiz and first fight vs. Stiverne, Wilder is more than capable of being patient behind his jab and waiting for a decent opportunity to strike. At least early on, I suspect he'll utilize a similar strategy vs. Fury, staying behind his jab and not allowing the best counter puncher he's faced thus far in his career in Fury catch him out of position. With that said, Fury doesn't have the power of Ortiz or Stiverne and his physical conditioning is still a question, so I do expect Wilder to take more chances and increase his aggression as the fight progresses.

More heart/mentally stronger: Wilder - who will be making his eighth title defense tonight - is a confident, hungry fighter with a strong desire to be remembered down the road as one of the all-time great heavyweights. Compare that mentality with Fury, who retired, briefly un-retired, and then retired again after winning his first heavyweight title in 2015 vs. Klitschko. (Fury did not fight again for 2.5 years after winning the title vs. Klitschko.) Fury was scheduled to fight Klitschko again in a July 2016 rematch, but the rematch was postponed multiple times due to an ankle injury and multiple failed drug tests suffered by Fury. Fury ultimately vacated his title belts and retired from boxing citing mental health, drug, and alcohol issues.

One can surmise from evaluating their paths to Saturday's fight that Wilder is the more mentally stable fighter with superior determination and focus. Wilder showed impressive heart and determination in a fight-of-the-year candidate earlier this year vs. Ortiz, getting outboxed and nearly stopped in the 7th round of that fight before finding a way knock Ortiz down twice to win by stoppage in the 10th round. Three months after Wilder vs. Ortiz, Fury came out of retirement to fight Sefer Seferi, a farcical fight that involved quite a bit of clowning around and smiling by both fighters, and even a kiss on the lips prior to the first bell.

Fury will no doubt take Saturday's fight more seriously, but Wilder definitely strikes me as the more serious, mentally tougher fighter which could go along way towards overcoming Fury's advantages in size and technical skill.

Recent ring activity: Wilder has obviously been much more active than the recently un-retired Fury in recent years, having fought five times since Fury fought Klitschko in 2015 - mostly vs. respectable, top 20 heavyweights. His most recent fight was against a fighter in Ortiz that some rated (and perhaps even still rate) as high as a top 2 or 3 heavyweight in the world.

As mentioned previously, Fury has fought just twice since coming out of retirement this year, both "tune-up" fights vs. no-name, C-level opponents. Fury hasn't fought an elite opponent since defeating Klitschko three years ago and has undergone extensive treatment for substance abuse since then. Ring rust, the effort to overcome substance abuse issues, as well as the effort Fury had to make to lose approximately 150 lbs over the past year to get back into top-level shape might all crash down on Fury coming into the fight vs. Wilder and result in a poorer-than-expected performance later tonight.

Home country advantage: With this fight taking place in Los Angeles, Wilder is fighting 2,000 miles from his hometown of Tuscaloosa, Alabama and 2,800 miles from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York - where he's fought three out of his last five fights and developed a solid East Coast fan base. Although Wilder is headlining a boxing card on the West Coast for the first time in his career, he is fighting in his home country vs. a somewhat controversial, at-times obnoxious fighter from the United Kingdom in Fury. The charismatic, entertaining fighter from Alabama is expected to be a strong crowd favorite - which may influence the action inside the ring and perhaps even influence the judges on the outside.

Wilder has arguably been the beneficiary of favorable scoring in recent fights. Three of Wilder's last five fights - vs. Ortiz, Washington, and Szpilka - somewhat surprisingly had Wilder tied or ahead on the scorecards at the time of stoppage when it could easily be argued he should've been behind on the cards. (I had Wilder behind in the Ortiz and Washington fights at the time of stoppage.)

Why Tyson Fury will win

Record of accomplishments: Fury is a former unified IBF, WBA, and WBO heavyweight champion of the world, having won those titles in 2015 by beating Wladimir Klitschko - who until that point had been on an 11-year, 22-fight winning streak. In winning that fight vs. Klitschko, Fury also became the lineal heavyweight champion, a title Fury still claims today as no one has beaten him since the Klitschko fight.

Like Wilder, Fury is undefeated (27-0) with 19 of those wins coming via TKO/KO. Although he's been knocked down once in his career (in 2013 vs. Cunningham, a fight he would later come back to win in the middle rounds by stoppage) he's never truly been tested in his pro, winning all of his fights either by stoppage or clear unanimous decision. The most impressive win of Fury's career was his wide unanimous decision victory vs. Klitschko, beating the future first ballot hall-of-famer as a 3.5-1 underdog in the Klitschko-friendly confines of Germany, where Klitschko fought most of the fights in his professional career (50 out of 69 fights).

Fury is of Irish Traveller (Gypsy) heritage and comes from a long family line (reported to be 10 generations) of bare-knuckle fighters and traditional boxers.  (Bare-knuckle fighting has long been a popular tradition within Gypsy culture.)

Advantage in skill: In terms of technical skills, Fury is a (far) superior boxer to Wilder. At 6'9", 250+ pounds Fury has excellent dexterity, as well as very good head and foot movement for his size. Fury is perhaps the most versatile heavyweight we've seen in some years - he can box from an orthodox or southpaw stance, from range or from close distance, and coming forward as the aggressor or moving backwards as a counterpuncher. Fury's at-times constant movement makes him hard to hit and allows him to throw punches from unpredictable, awkward angles that are difficult for his opponents to anticipate. His skills are complemented with very respectable (and generally accurate) punching power, as he's won 70% of his fights by TKO/KO.

Even after his extended layoff, Fury is arguably still the most skilled heavyweight in boxing and will be the most skilled boxer Wilder has faced in his career - even more so that Ortiz, who outboxed Wilder for most of their fight before getting stopped late. Fury doesn't have Ortiz's power but is younger, quicker, moves better, is a savvier counter puncher, and is more solid defensively than Ortiz.

In his last title fight, Fury decisively outboxed Klitschko, who was past his prime but hadn't been beaten in 11 years and was known for being one of the most technically skilled heavyweights of this generation. Klitschko went on 1.5 years later in his next fight to knock down and nearly stop UK boxing superstar Anthony Joshua, who is undefeated and widely considered the #1 heavyweight in the world. Fury did not have any of the problems Joshua had with Klitschko, barely getting touched and winning nearly all of the early rounds comfortably before coasting in the later rounds to win a clear decision.

If a less-skilled, still somewhat raw fighter in Wilder can't get to Fury with his power and tonight's fight becomes a pure boxing match, Fury will almost certainly win a wide decision more convincingly than he did vs. Klitschko. Given Wilder's at-times undisciplined, "swinging" power punching motions which sometimes leave him open to clean counters, one also can't discount the possibility that Fury even stops him in the later rounds.

Advantages in size and reach: A key advantage Wilder has enjoyed in pretty much every fight of his career is his 83" reach. Wilder typically sets up his attack behind a jab that is longer than his opponent's, which allows him to mix in knockout power punches from distance without always having to worry about clean counters (since opponents with a shorter reach usually can't attack him as effectively from distance). But, with an 85" reach, Fury might be the first boxer Wilder has faced with a reach advantage over him. Fury beat a highly-skilled Klitschko largely utilizing his reach advantage and movement to elude Klitschko's jab and power attack; he could very easily utilize a similar reach advantage to outbox a fighter in Wilder who doesn't have near the experience or savvy Klitschko did.

Wilder is also still unproven as an inside fighter, actually having struggled from close distance vs. lesser opponents (see stretches of Wilder's fights vs. Washington, Spilka, and Eric Molina). Fury is a skilled inside fighter with sharper instincts and greater accuracy from close range. Do not be surprised if, in some spots,  Fury uses his 40+ pound weight advantage and superior boxing ability on the inside to score points and smother Wilder's punching power.

Prefight Analysis

If I knew with certainty that we'll see the same version of Fury tonight that we saw prior to his retirement in 2016, I'd take Fury to win this fight easily without even thinking about it. I've always rated Fury very highly; in my opinion, a prime Tyson Fury is the most skilled heavyweight since Lennox Lewis, who was the best heavyweight of this generation. I favor the skills of a  prime Fury even over a prime Wladimir Klitschko; a more disciplined, mentally stable Fury I think could've had a better career than the legendary Ukrainian.

Fury is the one fighter at heavyweight who has the reach to neutralize Wilder's jab. Fury also has the skills to elude Wilder's rangy power with his savvy, deceptively quick head movement and footwork. Again, Fury is a guy who - as a significant underdog - easily outboxed one of the all-time great heavyweights in Klitschko in Klitschko's adopted home of Germany. If Wilder can't reach Fury with his power Fury, in my opinion, is a near certainty to outbox a decidedly less-skilled fighter in Wilder, who has actually already been outboxed by many of the better heavyweights he's fought in recent years (Ortiz, Washington, Szpilka).

Beyond his long jab and power right hand, Wilder is somewhat limited in terms of pure skills. If tonight we get a Fury that's anything close to the level of pre-retirement Fury, I think Fury probably wins a wide decision (even wider than his win vs. Klitschko) or even stops Wilder in the late rounds.   
Really, this fight mostly boils down to which version of Fury we see tonight; honestly, this is nearly impossible to predict given Fury's recent 2.5-year layoff from the sport and the mental health, substance abuse, and weight issues he dealt with during his time outside of the ring. I could be (way) wrong but I lean towards the thinking that Fury is making a serious mistake jumping in only a few months after returning from retirement to fight an elite, more athletic heavyweight with historically great punching power like Wilder. I see years of ring rust (discounting Fury's two recent fights vs. C-level opponents, where ring rust was clearly evident), deteriorated conditioning, and Fury's still-questionable mental stability not faring well vs. Wilder's confident determination, superior athleticism, and power - even with Fury's still considerable advantage in skill. 

If Fury had given himself more time to tune-up vs. better competition prior to taking this fight I'd give him a much better chance to win but from what I've seen in his last two fights the ring rust is still there - he's not quite as quick or accurate as he was pre-retirement. I don't think Fury is quite ready yet to fight Wilder (or any of the other elite heavyweights for that matter). 

While I see Wilder being a bit patient early in an effort to establish his jab and gauge Fury from distance, I think by far the most likely outcome of this fight is Wilder by TKO/KO, maybe even in the early to middle rounds. Wilder by TKO/KO - which can currently be found at roughly even money (approximately +100) odds - is the lone bet I'll be taking for this fight. In case Fury is able to find his pre-retirement form and is in better condition than I'm expecting I would strongly consider hedging any potential losses on the Wilder by TKO/KO bet with Fury to win by unanimous decision, which can currently be found at as high as +365 odds (5Dimes).

Both inside and outside the ring I fully expect tonight's fight to be a show!

Prediction: Wilder by TKO/KO

Recommended bet: Wilder by TKO/KO (.5 unit)

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Canelo vs. Golovkin II: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (49-1-2 34 KOs) vs. Gennady Golovkin (38-0-1, 34 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 15, 2018
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World middleweight and WBA Super World middleweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez: +140, Golovkin: -150 (5 Dimes, 9/15/18)
Purse: Alvarez: $5 million, Golovkin: $5 million  (guaranteed money only - both fighters stand to make substantially more based on a 55% Canelo/45% Golovkin split of PPV revenues, ticket sales, etc.)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: Not ranked (due to PED suspension), Golovkin: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Golovkin: Orthodox
Referee: Benjy Estevez

Why you should watch this fight

Because this is (by far) the most anticipated fight of the year - a surefire action-packed matchup between probably the two best middleweights in the world who also happen to be two of the best fighters in the world pound-for-pound.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin is the long-awaited rematch of a fantastic fight last year that ended in a (very) controversial draw. Most (including me, who scored the fight 8 rounds to 4 for Golovkin) felt Golovkin clearly won the fight. Earlier this year, a rematch of last year's fight was agreed to and scheduled to take place in May, but was ultimately cancelled and rescheduled for tonight due to Canelo's two failed tests for the performance-enhancing drug clenbuterol, which resulted in Canelo receiving a 6-month suspension from the Nevada Athletic Commission. (The suspension was effective beginning in February and just ended last month.)

Canelo's failed drug tests (and resulting suspension) has somewhat diminished the popularity of the wildly popular Mexican boxer - even amongst his own countrymen. The controversy surrounding the failed tests also generated significant (and very genuine) tension and dislike between Canelo and Golovkin, who were previously on relatively friendly terms. Still, Canelo is easily the top PPV attraction in boxing; despite lack of heavy promotion, last year's Canelo vs. Golovkin fight sold 1.3 million buys - the most PPV buys for a boxing match not involving Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson in 2002. (Tonight's fight is widely expected to exceed the 1.3 million buys from last year's fight.) Canelo is still in the middle of his prime - with elite boxing skills to match his popularity - and still only has one loss on his record (to the undefeated and now retired Mayweather).

Canelo will be facing an aging, but still deadly Golovkin who - at 36 years old - is still arguably the best knockout artist in boxing, having just come off a 2nd-round KO victory vs. Vanes Martirosyan in his last fight this past May. Golovkin is actually the #1-ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world by Ring Magazine and has won 34 out of his 39 fights - including 24 out of his last 26 fights - by stoppage for a KO% of 87%, the highest KO% in middleweight boxing history. 

The winner of this fight will have earned what will be the most significant win of their career (a win that will likely be considered the signature win of their career years from now upon retirement) and will have a solid claim as the best fighter in the world pound-for-pound. For Golovkin this would be the best win of an already hall-of-fame career and move him further up the list of the greatest middleweights of all time. If he retires tomorrow, Canelo is already a probable hall-of-famer but a win this Saturday over an undefeated Golovkin would secure his status as a Mexican legend. A win for Canelo would also go along way towards regaining respect from the numerous boxing fans who question whether his career has been unfairly bolstered by performance-enhancing drugs (given his recent failed drug tests).

The winner of this fight could possibly be in line for a unification megafight next year with undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders, who is defending his title next month in Boston vs. undefeated - and highly regarded - middleweight Demetrius Andrade.

Prefight Analysis

Last year, I picked Golovkin to win the first fight and - as many observers did - thought he won convincingly. Although Golovkin didn't knock Canelo out as I expected, I thought he was certainly the more effective aggressor; per CompuBox stats he threw and landed more punches in 10 out of 12 rounds of the fight, maintained consistent pressure behind his jab, and dominated the middle rounds when Canelo tired after a solid start in the first 3 rounds.

It would be very reasonable to think not much will change for the rematch tonight. I still think Canelo is the better-skilled boxer (as he was last year in their first fight) but the rematch - as with the first fight - still likely features a mismatch in effective power and pressure that will be difficult for Canelo to overcome. It's hard to imagine that the bigger, physically stronger, superior (and perhaps historically great) power puncher in Golovkin won't still be effective in pressuring a smaller, relatively low-volume, flat-footed fighter in Canelo despite Canelo's ring intelligence, deceptive elusiveness, and superior skill. One also needs to consider that the stamina problems that plagued Canelo in the middle rounds of his first fight with Golovkin (and have plagued him in the middle to late rounds of numerous prior fights to the extent that he often takes portions of rounds off to conserve energy) likely won't just go away for this fight - at least to some extent we should expect Canelo's notorious issues with stamina to manifest again vs. a constantly pressuring Golovkin.

Also consider that ring rust and diminished mobility may possibly be factors in tonight's rematch. Canelo has been inactive for a year - the longest layoff of his 12-year career - and is coming off a knee surgery in April for which he is still wearing a knee brace. 

Golovkin is correctly graded as the favorite for the rematch. But the more I think about this fight, the more I think Canelo has a very real shot here for the upset. In general for rematches, we at least somewhat know what to expect relative to fights where fighters are facing each other for the first time. But this particular rematch is a bit different as there are numerous unknown variables and unanswered questions to consider, including:

 How much has Golovkin regressed since his previous fight with Canelo? At 36 years old, Golovkin is past his prime and has shown in some recent fights - including his last fight vs. Canelo and his fight last year vs. Danny Jacobs - that he doesn't cut off the ring and pressure nearly as well as he did in his prime. In his last fight, Golovkin made quick work of Vanes Martirosyan, winning by KO in the 2nd round. But Martirosyan was a lesser-caliber opponent who was fighting on only a few weeks notice for the first time at middleweight after a two-year layoff. Canelo, on the other hand, is still in the middle of his prime and has noticeably improved with each fight since his 2013 loss to Mayweather. Canelo handled Golovkin's pressure much better than expected in their first fight; the most likely scenario would be that Canelo has an even better performance vs. a slower, aging Golovkin one year later.

Was Canelo on performance enhancing drugs for the previous fight? Canelo failed two drug tests leading up to the previously scheduled rematch date in May, testing positive for the performance enhancing drug clenbuterol. He has vehemently denied accusations of drug use, blaming the failed drug tests on tainted meat. Like most I'm highly skeptical of this denial but lean towards giving him the benefit of the doubt on this one occasion. If Canelo was on performance enhancing drugs I think it will show pretty clearly by the middle rounds of the fight; if Canelo was on drugs I see the most likely outcome for this fight being a dominant Golovkin performance en route to a mid to late round stoppage. But if Canelo was clean I think the most likely outcome is an even better performance from Canelo in tonight's fight than the previous fight, especially when you consider Golovkin's recent regression and Canelo's superior boxing skills.

Will Canelo get the benefit of favorable judging in this fight (as he did the previous fight)? The judging in the first fight clearly favored Canelo with some dubious scoring, including a 118-110 (10 rounds to 2) score from judge Adelaide Byrd that even Canelo and his promoter Oscar De La Hoya) disagreed with. (Both have stated they felt Canelo won "7 or 8" rounds.) Don Trella scored the 7th round, arguably Golovkin's best round in the fight, for Canelo which resulted in him scoring the fight a draw overall. (If he'd scored that round for Golovkin as the other two judges did Golovkin would've won the fight by majority decision.) With the significant postfight controversy surrounding the scoring (which resulted in Byrd being temporarily benched from judging by the Nevada Athletic Commission and removed from judging any major fights since) one has to wonder where the scoring bias is more likely to lie in tonight's fight. On the one hand, the judges scoring the fight might be sensitive to the previous controversy and feel pressure to be fair towards Golovkin to the extent that they give him the benefit of the doubt in close rounds and are actually biased in his favor. On the other hand, we could conceivably see a repeat of questionable judging in the more politically connected, "A-side" Canelo's favor - especially given that the crowd at T-Mobile in Las Vegas is expected to be pro-Canelo. It does seem Canelo has received very favorable scoring in most of his fights over the past few years, including a couple of controversial decision victories vs. Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout, as well as his loss to Mayweather where one judge scored the fight a draw (despite most observers seeing the fight as a wide decision victory for Mayweather). To be fair, Canelo - while generally deliberate and patient - has a judge-friendly style featuring showy, accurate, clean power punches that are easier for judges to score. (Canelo landed most of the flashy, "highlight" punches in the first fight with Golovkin.) 

How will Canelo's leaner physique affect the fight? In preparing for the rematch it appears Canelo has targeted a smaller, less muscular physique than he had in the first fight. One can surmise that he likely won't have as much punching power, thus will be less likely of a threat to hurt or knockout Golovkin in the rematch. But there is a good chance Canelo's leaner physique also results in improved mobility, elusiveness, and speed which could make his counterpunching more effective. The leaner physique may also result in improved stamina, which could be critical as Canelo's relative lack of work rate and energy in the middle rounds was one of the primary reasons he didn't get the decision victory in the first fight.

I thought Golovkin very clearly won the first fight (and was rooting for him to win that fight) but came away more impressed by how Canelo performed. I expected Golovkin to win by knockout but Canelo was able to elude Golovkin's power for most of the fight (never even coming close to being either knocked down or stopped, which has been the fate of every Golovkin opponent in recent years) and was able to consistently outbox Golovkin on the inside with savvy counterpunching. When Canelo tired in the middle rounds he was dominated, but when he had energy and was trading punches with Golovkin in the early and later rounds he arguably got the better of most of those exchanges. Canelo's counterpunching to the body in particular made a typically aggressive, punch-happy Golovkin more reluctant than usual to throw his own power punches.

While I thought Golovkin was clearly the more aggressive and effective puncher over the whole course of the first fight (which I thought won him the fight), I also came away from the fight with the impression that Canelo was clearly the more skilled boxer, with superior movement, speed, and counterpunching ability. For me, Canelo's draw with Golovkin was arguably as impressive as any fight that Canelo has actually won.

For these reasons, I think the best value on this fight is Canelo to win by decision at +200 or above.  All variables considered, I'd grade Golovkin at 55-60% to win tonight's fight but the fact is, Golovkin's effective pressure - including his ability to cut off the ring - has noticeably deteriorated in recent fights (including the first fight with Canelo). A year after that fight, I expect the ability of an aging, past-prime Golovkin to effectively pressure his opponent to further diminish. On the other side I see Canelo - who is still in his prime - making adjustments to mitigate Golovkin's pressure and counter even more effectively than he did in the previous fight. One key adjustment is the leaner physique; what Canelo may lose in punching power and strength from the less muscular frame he may gain in stamina, elusiveness, and the ability to be a more high-volume counterpuncher.

Canelo is a high IQ fighter who takes his craft very seriously and over the years seems to have improved with each fight. I think in front of a mostly pro-Canelo crowd in Las Vegas with something to prove after the drug accusations that have (rightly or wrongly) tarnished his reputation, there is a good chance he puts on perhaps the most impressive performance of his career and beats Golovkin in a competitive but clear decision victory. Note that it is typically the more skilled boxer who makes the necessary adjustments and has the better performance in a rematch; I see that being the case for tonight's fight. As hyped as Canelo is, I actually feel that in terms of pure boxing skill, he is actually still a somewhat underrated boxer who put on maybe the best performance in his career in getting the draw vs. Golovkin - a fight which I felt Canelo lost. I see him putting on an even better performance - perhaps vs. an overeager Golovkin trying too hard for the knockout - and getting the win tonight.

A victory by Canelo against Golovkin instantly puts him on the same level as recent Mexican legends like Juan Manuel Marquez, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Erik Morales; I think there's a decent chance we see it happen this Mexican Independence Day weekend.

I will be at the fight and am looking forward to seeing what happens!

Prediction: Golovkin to win

Recommended bet: Canelo by 12-round decision (.5 unit) 

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Danny Garcia vs. Shawn Porter: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Danny Garcia (34-1, 20 KOs) vs. Shawn Porter (28-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: September 8, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Garcia -150, Porter +140 (5 Dimes, 9/8/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #6 ranked welterweight, Porter: #4 ranked welterweight
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Porter: Orthodox
Referee: Steve Willis

Why you should watch this fight

There's a general consensus on who the cream of the crop fighters are in the welterweight division. Most feel Terence Crawford and Errol Spence - both currently rated amongst the top 10 boxers in the sport by Ring Magazine - are the two best fighters at welterweight right now. Keith Thurman - an undefeated, former unified (and current WBA) welterweight champion who beat both Garcia and Porter in (very) closely-contested decisions - is also up there near the top, though is understandably not quite as highly regarded at this point due to a 1.5-year absence from the ring following his split decision victory vs. Garcia last year. (An elbow surgery last year and injury to his left hand earlier this year have postponed his return to the ring.) Some (including myself) might even still throw Manny Pacquiao into this mix after his recent, impressive 7th-round TKO victory vs. Lucas Matthysse for a version of the WBA world title, his first victory by stoppage since 2009 vs. Miguel Cotto.

Prior to their losses to Thurman, Danny Garcia and Shawn Porter were both considered amongst the very elite of welterweights with each having a small case as being the top fighter at 147 lbs. The winner of Saturday's fight will win the WBC welterweight title Thurman vacated this April and be in line for a unification fight with IBF welterweight champion (and fellow Premier Boxing Champions fighter) Spence in early 2019, where Garcia or Porter - with a victory vs. Spence - can reclaim their status as arguably the best fighter in the welterweight division.

The loser of this fight will still be regarded by most as one of the better welterweights in the sport and will still be in line for solid paydays in future matchups, but will likely never get back to the very top of the division after yet another loss to a top opponent.

Prefight Analysis

On paper, Garcia vs. Porter is a fairly even matchup. It's certainly an interesting style clash featuring two different forms of aggression - an aggressive, yet patient fighter in Garcia who relies primarily on timely counterpunching from mid-range distance vs. a sometimes hyper-aggressive fighter in Porter who often overwhelms his opponents with brute force and pressure on the inside.

I can see why Garcia is considered the slight favorite. Garcia is the better pure boxer in this matchup. He has better overall boxing skills, is the more accurate puncher, is more responsible defensively, and has higher boxing IQ (which makes him more capable of correct technical adjustments over the course of a fight). Although Garcia isn't as physically strong as Porter, he actually has superior punching power to Porter in both hands, including a sneaky left hook that is rated by many as one of the best left hooks in the sport. Garcia possesses a patient, counterpunching style that's well-suited to land solid, clean power punches vs. Porter's at-times reckless ambush attacks.

Porter is typically able to outwork and dominate counter punchers that have a relatively low work rate (most notably Adrien Broner who he defeated by wide unanimous decision in 2015) but Garcia, although patient, is an aggressive counterpuncher who will likely be much more willing to engage and trade punches with Porter than defensive-minded counterpunchers Porter's fought in the past like Broner.

Historically - in fights considered even matchups on paper, the more fundamentally sound fighter prevails more often than not. In this matchup, Garcia is the more fundamentally sound, traditionally-styled boxer with the skill set to counter Porter's awkward, wild-punching, brawler style that often leaves him open for clean counters. One thing not often noted about Garcia is that he has terrific - arguably Golovkin-like - balance, which is one of the reasons he has an excellent chin (considered by many to be one of the best in boxing as he's never even come close to being knocked down or knocked out in a fight as a professional). Garcia's balance is also a large part of the reason he has deceptive, yet concussive knockout power in both hands.

The crowd at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn - less than a two-hour drive from Garcia's hometown of Philadelphia - is expected to be pro-Garcia which could influence the action inside the ring as well as the judging outside of it.

The only loss of Garcia's career was a very close, split-decision loss last year to an undefeated, at the time pound-for-pound rated Keith Thurman who beat Porter by a competitive, but unanimous decision. It's likely Garcia vs. Porter will be a similarly competitive fight and many expect that Garcia should perform at least as well vs. Porter as he did vs. Thurman.

But despite Garcia's advantages - which in my opinion include superior boxing ability - I actually favor Porter in this matchup, especially given the excellent value offered on Porter to win (+150) and Porter to win by decision (+245).

I like Porter's superior physical strength and high-energy brawler style to overwhelm Garcia's patient, relatively low-volume style, especially down the stretch. Porter is a very strong, athletic welterweight who actually fought most of his amateur career as a middleweight (and has pro experience fighting at weight classes higher than 147 lbs) and has a background as a football standout in high school (to the extent that he was awarded all-conference honors and was offered athletic scholarships to play football in college). Porter's superior strength complemented by his typically high punch rate I think will allow him to outwork a physically weaker Garcia who actually fought most of his pro career at light welterweight (140 lbs) and moved up to welterweight just two years ago. Again, I do rate Garcia as the better boxer of the two and think he has the more dangerous punching power - especially if he lands clean. But Porter is a savvy, highly-skilled boxer in his own right with underrated skills. I see Porter staying close to Garcia and exploiting his natural advantage on the inside; staying on the inside will also allow Porter to smother the punching power Garcia has from mid-range.

Keith Thurman was able to edge Porter in a close fight primarily due to solid footwork and movement, which stymied Porter's pressure. Garcia is relatively flat-footed in comparison and won't be nearly as adept in evading Porter's attack. Garcia has very good timing on his counter punches but Porter has an unpredictable, herky-jerky style featuring a variety of at-times erratic head and body feints that it may take a few rounds for Garcia to adjust to.

Even a lesser, battle-worn pressure fighter in Brandon Rios was able to give Garcia trouble in spots. Porter is a couple of levels above Rios - bigger, stronger, faster, less predictable, more physical, much more skilled, and can be just as aggressive when on the offensive. Garcia has beaten quality opponents at light welterweight and beaten better opponents than Rios at welterweight but has yet to beat an opponent nearly as good as Porter at 147 lbs.

I think Porter - especially coming into this fight as the underdog - will feel he has more to prove and that his energy, physicality, and constant punch activity will be too much for Garcia's more laid-back, low-volume approach. I'm usually partial to the fighter with superior boxing skills but in this instance, I think Porter's superior athleticism, strength, punch volume, and aggression will trump Garcia's superior boxing ability - especially considering that Porter's own boxing ability is high-level and a bit underrated.

Even if this fight were at even money I'd favor Porter but I for sure like the value on Porter as a +140 underdog. With Garcia's granite chin and cautious style, I'd grade Porter to win by decision at +200 or above as an even better bet. (I recommend placing bets on both to mitigate risk.)

I don't see either fighter beating Spence down the road but this is a solid, 50/50 matchup that I look forward to watching!

Prediction: Porter to win

Recommended bet: 1) Porter to win (.5 unit)
2) Porter wins by 12-round decision (.5 unit)

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Terence Crawford vs. Jeff Horn: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Terence Crawford (32-0, 23 KOs) vs. Jeff Horn (18-0,-1 12 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: June 9, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO World Welterweight title
TV: ESPN+
Line: Crawford -570, Horn +480 (5 Dimes, 6/9/18)
Purse: Crawford: $3 million, Horn: $1.25 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Crawford: #3 ranked pound-for-pound, Horn: #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Crawford: Orthodox, Horn: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Why you should watch this fight

Can Terence Crawford be the next great American boxing superstar? Crawford - the undefeated, Ring Magazine #3-rated pound-for-pound boxer - is looking to win a world title in his third weight class in his welterweight (147 lb) division debut vs. Jeff Horn, another undefeated fighter who won the WBO welterweight title last July in a highly controversial unanimous decision victory vs. boxing legend Manny Pacquiao.

Of the top-ranked fighters in boxing, there are three who have arguably separated themselves from the rest of the pack to have a reasonable claim as the best fighter in the sport: Gennady Golovkin - who is still undefeated after last year's controversial draw vs. Canelo Alvarez, is coming off a sensational 2nd-round KO victory vs. Vanes Martirosyan, and is currently on one of the great title defense runs in the history of the middleweight division; Vasyl Lomachenko - who is coming off an impressive TKO victory vs. highly regarded Jorge Linares to win the WBA lightweight title (becoming the fastest fighter in the 120+ year history of boxing to win a world title in three divisions); and Crawford, who in his last fight became the first boxer in 13 years to be undisputed champion of the world (i.e., simultaneously hold all four major world titles within a single weight division). Crawford earned his undisputed champion status in the junior welterweight (140 lb) division after defeating previously undefeated Julius Indongo to unify all four titles in the weight class.

Over the past month, both Golovkin and Lomachenko have made their case for #1 fighter in the sport with impressive knockout victories over solid opponents. Crawford is looking to similarly impress and put in his claim as the best boxer pound-for-pound this Saturday in his welterweight debut vs. Horn, a naturally bigger man than Crawford who - as Pacquiao found out in his matchup with Horn last year - is difficult to look impressive against.

On the other side of the ring Horn -  a former school teacher who became a household name overnight in his home country of Australia after his shocking upset of heavy betting favorite Pacquiao - is looking to prove his win over Pacquiao (who came into last July's fight vs. Horn with much more experience at welterweight than Crawford will this Saturday) was no fluke.

Crawford vs. Horn will be the first high-profile boxing match to be televised live on ESPN's new "ESPN Plus" (ESPN+) subscription service. Will Crawford once again live up to the hype - making the biggest weight jump of his career (7 lbs) to win a title in his third weight class and stake his claim as the best fighter in the sport? Or will Jeff Horn - who opened as a 10-1 underdog and is currently graded as nearly a 5-1 underdog for Saturday's fight - shock the world again?

Prefight Analysis

This fight could very easily be tougher for Crawford than most think. Horn is the bigger fighter in this matchup - a fighter who's boxed his entire professional career at welterweight (and is generally considered a big guy within the weight class) while Crawford has fought a large part of his career two full divisions lower at lightweight. It shouldn't be overlooked here that Crawford is making the biggest weight jump of his career Saturday night to fight at welterweight for the first time in his career vs. an undefeated welterweight champion.

As he showed in his upset of Pacquiao, Horn is a tough, durable fighter at welterweight who might be able to impose his size advantage and physicality in the early rounds on a smaller Crawford who sometimes likes to exercise patience (and thus can be a slow starter) early. Horn has an awkward, "herky-jerky" style featuring deceptively quick foot movement and timely pressure that may take even a master of in-fight adjustments like Crawford a few rounds to get acclimated to. Horn also has legitimate power in his right hand that Crawford likely won't be able to just walk through (as he's done with shots from big power punchers at lower weight divisions).

Horn comes into this fight as a substantial underdog but he's is an undefeated world champion who's consistently shown the toughness and resiliency to do what he has to do to get the victory. Crawford - though a bigger-sized guy when he fought in the lightweight and junior welterweight divisions - is the naturally smaller fighter in this welterweight matchup with Horn and will be fighting at welterweight for the very first time in his career. There's a non-negligible chance that - similar to the Pacquiao fight - Horn's size advantage, physicality, and pressure will be a bit more than Crawford bargained for and overcome Crawford's clear skill and talent advantage.  

But I think Horn has way too much to overcome here in this matchup (vs. arguably the best boxer in the world pound-for-pound in Crawford) to pull off the upset - in my opinion, the pick here is Crawford by TKO/KO. Yes, Horn is the bigger, typically more physical fighter and is the only fighter in this matchup with any experience at welterweight. But Crawford has the clear advantage in just about every other facet of the matchup: skills (both offensive and defensive), punch accuracy, speed, quickness, athleticism, reach, power, ring IQ, etc. There are levels to boxing - Crawford has proven multiple times that he's an A-level boxer and is currently in the prime of what will likely be a hall-of-fame career; Horn is at best a B/B+-level fighter whose best win was a highly controversial decision over a past-prime Pacquiao - a fight that most observers felt he lost.

Horn came into last year's fight vs. Pacquiao as nearly a middleweight the day of the fight and was, in many spots, successfully able to impose his size advantage and physicality on the smaller Pacquiao. Despite this, Pacquiao was able to consistently land power shots and visibly bloody Horn to the point where at the end of the 9th round the referee came over to Horn's corner and suggested the fight be stopped. One thing that saved Horn in last year's fight was Pacquiao's cautiousness; since his KO loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012, Pacquiao has been noticeably less willing to take risks offensively (he hasn't stopped anyone since Marquez knocked him out) and his punch output has declined considerably.

The killer instinct that was a hallmark of prime Pacquiao has all but disappeared in recent years. Prime Crawford still has that killer instinct; you can bet he will be more aggressive in the middle to later rounds than Pacquiao was vs. Horn. Crawford does not have quite the hand speed or quickness of even a past-prime Pacquiao but he is much more accurate and crafty offensively; in the later rounds I anticipate he'll be able to land power punches almost at will vs. a tough, but defensively flawed Horn who will try to apply pressure on Crawford and thus will be open for Crawford's counterpunching. Horn can be elusive on his feet but has a "head-first" come-forward style which likely won't work well for long vs. an accurate power puncher like Crawford who will be looking to time Horn as he jumps inside to attack. Note that Horn has been knocked down in two of his last five fights and in a third fight (the fight vs. Pacquiao last year) came close to being stopped.

An overwhelming majority of the boxing press, ringside observers, and general public felt Horn lost last year in a fight vs. a past-prime, smaller fighter with declining skills in Pacquiao. In my opinion, it's highly likely he'll take a worse beating vs. a much younger, prime Crawford who has superior technical skills to Pacquiao and is eager to make his case as possibly the best boxer in the world so will actively look to be much more aggressive than Pacquiao was last year.

It's important to note that Horn got the controversial decision over Pacquiao in the city (and country) where he was born and raised (Brisbane, Australia). Saturday night he'll be fighting in Crawford's home country in front of mostly Crawford fans who - as proven in previous Crawford fights in New York City and Las Vegas - travel as well as fans of any current American fighter. I see Horn putting up a spirited effort and making the fight competitive in the early rounds before the talent and skill gap becomes apparent, leading to Crawford dominating the fight in the middle and late rounds.

I don't anticipate too much suspense in this fight but it'll be intriguing to see how Crawford performs in his welterweight debut so we can maybe better gauge how he might perform in possible superfights down the road vs. top welterweights like Errol Spence, Keith Thurman, and Danny Garcia. Or maybe Horn will show tonight that he's a top welterweight we've all been sleeping on???


Prediction: Crawford by TKO/KO

Recommended bet: Crawford by TKO/KO/DQ (1 unit)

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Leo Santa Cruz vs. Aber Mares II: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Leo Santa Cruz (34-1-1, 19 KOs) vs. Abner Mares (31-2-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: June 9, 2018
Weight class: Featherweight (126 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Featherweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Santa Cruz: -570, Mares: +570 (5 Dimes, 6/9/18)
Purses: Santa Cruz: $1 million, Mares: $750,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Santa Cruz: #1 ranked featherweight, Mares: #5 ranked featherweight
Style: Santa Cruz: Orthodox, Mares: Orthodox
Referee: Thomas Taylor

Why you should watch this fight

Leo Santa Cruz vs. Abner Mares II is a rematch of a fight that exceeded the hype and was universally considered one of the best fights of 2015. The first fight was arguably a classic - one of the best fights the Premier Boxing Champions series has aired in their three years of existence. A rematch seems almost certain to please and be another fight-of-the-year candidate, especially given the classic style matchup between two elite Mexican brawlers which is expected to take place in front of an energetic, mostly Mexican-American/Mexican crowd in the heart of downtown Los Angeles.

Since beating (then undefeated) Carl Frampton for the WBA featherweight title (which avenged his own loss to Frampton in 2016, the only loss of his career), Santa Cruz has widely been considered the best featherweight in the world. This Saturday, Santa Cruz gives Mares a chance to avenge his loss in their first fight, a highly entertaining fight that ended in a close but clear majority decision victory for Santa Cruz.

After losing to Santa Cruz, Mares changed trainers, hiring the well-known Oxnard, California-based trainer Robert Garcia. Mares has looked impressive in his two fights under Garcia, winning the "regular" version of the WBA featherweight title in the process. Will Mares - who as recently as a few years ago Ring Magazine rated as high as the #5 boxer in the sport pound-for-pound -  make the necessary adjustments under Garcia to avenge his loss in 2015 vs. Santa Cruz? Or will Santa Cruz get the better of Mares again in the rematch and solidify his status as the best featherweight in the world?

The winner of Saturday's fight will have the opportunity for a unification superfight with WBC featherweight champion Gary Russell Jr. (who's already indicated he'd like to fight the winner of this matchup) or possibly fight WBO interim featherweight champion Carl Frampton, who is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Nonito Donaire (which would be particularly intriguing if Santa Cruz beats Mares, as it would set up a much-anticipated rubber match between the two fighters).

Prefight Analysis

Santa Cruz vs. Mares is for sure one of the better bets for 2018 Fight of the Year. This is one of those matchups that you can be almost certain will be a competitive, action-packed fight. But I do think the outcome of the fight may depend largely on Mares' approach to the fight - especially given that he's under a different trainer (Robert Garcia) than he was in his first matchup with Santa Cruz. If Mares stays aggressive, keeps the fight physical and at close range, and uses (admittedly borderline illegal) clinching effectively as he did in the first couple of rounds of his first fight vs. Santa Cruz and as he did for stretches of his last two fights vs. Jesus Cuellar and Andres Gutierrez, he has more than a reasonable chance to pull off the upset  - assuming his stamina holds up and he can sustain his aggressiveness through 12 rounds.

To accompany decent power, Mares - at 32 years old - still has quicker hand speed than Santa Cruz and has the technical skills to exploit Santa Cruz's 3" height advantage and high-guard defensive posture (which should provide the shorter Mares with ample opportunities to land clean body shots if he can stay at close range vs. Santa Cruz).

Both Santa Cruz and Mares are high-volume pressure fighters but Mares is more adept at using his physicality to brawl inside. If Mares can successfully employ a rough-house attack strategy (i.e., turn this into an ugly fight), this is a fight I think he can win.

But - despite how solid Mares has looked in recent fights under Garcia - I think Santa Cruz most likely wins the rematch by decision, perhaps even more convincingly than he won the first fight. As with the first fight I see the key to Saturday's fight being Santa Cruz's more voluminous punch output combined with his superior stamina. Santa Cruz's advantages in accurate work rate and consistent energy were I think the key difference the first fight three years ago; I don't see a 32-year-old, slightly past prime Mares closing the gap in either of these areas vs. a prime Santa Cruz - if anything I expect Mares to have less stamina and have a lower work rate than he did in their first fight when Mares was closer to his prime.

I see Santa Cruz and Mares as roughly on the same level in terms of skill and power. Mares has superior hand speed and is the better fighter inside but I think Santa Cruz's stamina, consistently high work rate, and more accurate punching will overwhelm Mares in the middle to later rounds regardless of any adjustments Mares has made under Robert Garcia and regardless of whether the fight is fought from close range or from distance.

Though I think the fighters are somewhat evenly matched skill-wise, it should be noted that since his first fight with Mares, Santa Cruz has gained experience and seemingly improved in his two wars with Frampton (who is generally considered a better boxer than Mares). In his second fight vs. Frampton last year, Santa Cruz made impressive adjustments - including switching from a more aggressive, pressuring approach to utilizing his reach advantage to outbox Frampton from distance - to avenge his loss in the first fight. (An adjustment somewhat similar to the adjustments he made after the first couple of rounds in his first fight with Mares where he transitioned from trading punches with Mares on the inside to boxing more from distance.)

From his previous experience with Mares, I anticipate Santa Cruz having a better feel for how to counter Mares' aggressive, physical style and think he'll win more convincingly this time around by clear - albeit a competitive and at times thrilling - unanimous decision, if not a late stoppage.

If - at the beginning of 2018 - I was asked to pick a single fight that could be expected to live up to the hype and contend for Fight of the Year it would be this one so looking forward to seeing how the action shapes out!

Prediction: Santa Cruz by decision

Recommended bet: 1) Santa Cruz by any decision (risk 1 unit)

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Golovkin vs. Martirosyan: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Gennady Golovkin (37-0-1, 33 KOs) vs. Vanes Martirosyan (36-3-1, 21 KOs)
Location: StubHub Center, Carson, California
Date: May 5, 2018
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World middleweight and WBA Super World middleweight titles (Golovkin is also the IBF World middleweight champion but the IBF declined to sanction this fight.)
TV: HBO
Purses: Golovkin: $1 million, Martirosyan: $225,000
Line: Golovkin -2550, Martirosyan +1900 (5 Dimes, 5/4/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin: #1 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked middleweight, Martirosyan: Not ranked
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Martirosyan: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

Gennady Golovkin was supposed to fight Mexican boxing superstar Canelo Alvarez this Saturday in Las Vegas in a rematch of their September fight (that ended in a highly entertaining, but controversial draw that most observers felt Golovkin won), but the fight was canceled after Canelo failed two drug tests in the leadup to the fight.

Despite the draw from the Canelo fight (the first blemish on Golovkin's previously perfect boxing record), Golovkin is still undefeated and still ranked by many experts - including Ring Magazine - as the #1 boxer in the sport pound-for-pound. Golovkin is still the unified WBA, WBC, and IBF middleweight champion of the world (boasting an impressive 87% KO percentage - the highest KO% in middleweight history) and still probably the most feared power puncher in the sport.

But Golovkin hasn't looked quite as invincible in recent fights vs. A-level fighters as he did in his prime vs. weaker competition. Controversy or not, Golovkin managed only a draw in his most recent fight vs. Canelo and eked out a close unanimous decision victory in his fight preceding the Canelo fight last March vs. Danny Jacobs - a fight that some observers felt he lost. (I was at this fight and - despite betting on Golovkin to win - scored it 114-113 for Jacobs.) The fights vs. both Canelo and Jacobs were somewhat surprising, much closer-than-expected results after Golovkin had won his 23 fights prior to those fights all by TKO or KO.

The fact of the matter is, Golovkin is 36-years old and past his prime, with some feeling he's (noticeably) slowed in recent years in terms of foot speed, and doesn't have quite the power he had in his prime. Saturday's fight vs. an underrated, highly skilled fighter in Vanes Martirosyan is a chance for Golovkin to prove he hasn't regressed even further after an 8-month layoff (the 2nd longest layoff of his career) and a chance to gauge whether he should still be rated the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport over the likes of rising stars such as Terence Crawford and Vasyl Lomachenko.

Martirosyan is moving up in weight from the junior middleweight (154 lb) division to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career (after a two-year layoff from the sport) and is fighting on less than three weeks notice to fight arguably the #1 boxer in the world.

But Martirosyan poses an intriguing challenge for Golovkin. Martirosyan has 3 losses in his career, but those were all close, disputed decision losses to A-level fighters in Erislandy Lara, Jermall Charlo, and Demetrius Andrade. (Andrade and Charlo are still undefeated and considered among the best in the sport pound-for-pound.)

Martirosyan has proven he has the ability to box with anyone. He's adept at fighting from distance and moves extremely well; his tricky, sometimes awkward movement combined with excellent stamina makes it difficult for anyone - even an elite power puncher like Golovkin - to land fight-stopping punches against him. (In 40 professional fights, Martirosyan has never even come close to being stopped and has only been knocked down once in his career - a flash knockdown in the 9th round of his unanimous decision victory vs. Kasim Ouma in 2010.)

Despite the public criticism of this matchup, Martirosyan is arguably one of the top four or five opponents Golovkin has faced (in terms of talent and skill) and is a solid enough boxer to be an effective gauge as to where a 36-year-old Golovkin is at in his career after two fights in which he fought well, but showed signs of slippage.

If Martirosyan - a massive 20-1 underdog in this matchup - can win this fight it would obviously be (by far) the biggest win of his career, not to mention be the biggest upset in boxing in recent memory. An upset here would turn the middleweight division - which Golovkin has dominated for most of the last decade - on its heels.

But if Golovkin looks impressive and dominates Martirosyan as expected, it further wets the appetite for a possible Canelo vs. Golovkin fight in September, a rematch of what was considered by many a classic and one of the best fights of 2017.

Prefight Analysis

I actually wouldn't be surprised if Martirosyan is competitive in this fight. Martirosyan has never been decisively beaten in his career and in 2 out of this 3 career losses (each of which came vs. A-level fighters), you could make a strong argument that Martirosyan won the fight. There's been criticism of the Golovkin/Martirosyan matchup, but Vanes is a top-level fighter in his own right who's difficult to look good against and could prove to be a tougher-than-expected test for Golovkin.

Martirosyan moves well and has slightly better hand and foot speed than Golovkin. While far from a defensive wizard, Martirosyan has enough skill and awkward elusiveness to evade Golovkin's power punching and make this a competitive fight for several rounds. Martirosyan is moving up in weight and hasn't fought in nearly two years but in terms of pure skill, I'd rate Martirosyan just below Canelo, Jacobs, and Kell Brook as probably the 4th-best fighter Golovkin has fought in his career. I  would also rate Martirosyan's ability to box on the move as comparable and in some ways superior to Jacobs, who employed effective movement to give Golovkin the toughest fight of his career.

But Martirosyan is nearly a 20-1 underdog in this matchup for a reason. You can't escape the fact that
Vanes will be making his middleweight debut on less than 3 weeks notice after a 2-year layoff vs. arguably the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport and arguably the #1 middleweight fighter of this generation in Golovkin. Martirosyan has never faced a fighter with power anything close to Golovkin's and I think Vanes will lose some of his elusiveness and crafty foot movement (which he would rely on to evade that power) at the higher weight. And although Martirosyan is a fighter who moves well, he's a scrappy fighter at heart who's shown in previous fights a willingness to stay in the pocket and trade punches from close distance - at trait which will likely work against him if he decides to trade vs. a historically great power puncher like Golovkin.

Note that Golovkin will be able to stay aggressive and take more risks vs. Martirosyan - a natural 154-lber who doesn't have the knockout power of a Canelo or Jacobs, both of whom Golovkin had to at times box cautiously against (as respect to their power).

Skillwise, I think Golovkin and Martirosyan are comparable but there will be a clear advantage in terms of size, power, and experience at middleweight for Golovkin in this matchup. Martirosyan is a game fighter who I think is underrated by most. But if you combine the size and power advantages here with the ring rust resulting from Vanes having been out of the ring for nearly two years, I think we'll see a fairly easy stoppage victory for Golovkin in the middle rounds - perhaps earlier. Again, Martirosyan has an awkward style that's difficult to look good against, but - with all factors considered - if Golovkin doesn't look good here I think it will be a bit of a confirmation that he's slipped a bit and perhaps should no longer be considered the best boxer in the world over the likes of Lomachenko or Crawford.

In any case I'll be at the fight at StubHub Saturday night and am looking forward to seeing how this fight unfolds!

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO

Recommended bet(s): 
1) Golovkin to win in rounds 1-4 (.5 unit) 
2) Golovkin to win in rounds 5-8 (.5 unit)

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