Spence vs. Porter: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Errol Spence (25-0, 21 KOs) vs. Shawn Porter (30-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: September 28, 2019
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight and IBF World welterweight titles
TV: Fox PPV
Line (5 Dimes): Spence: -925, Porter: +725 (9/27/19)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Spence: #6 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked welterweight, Porter: #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Spence: Southpaw, Porter: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

The welterweight division (147 lbs) has long been considered by many to be the deepest and most talented division in boxing. The biggest debate within the division - and perhaps the biggest debate in all of boxing - is whether Errol Spence or Terence Crawford is the best welterweight boxer in the world.

The undefeated Crawford - signed to a Top Rank promotional company largely devoid of quality welterweight opposition - has unfortunately had limited opportunities to face other elite welterweights. Nevertheless, he's continued to impress since moving up to welterweight last year with TKO victories over an undefeated Jeff Horn (which earned him Horn's WBC welterweight title), an undefeated Jose Benavidez Jr., and a solid, skilled veteran in Amir Khan. Many feel it's a two-man race between only Crawford and Vasiliy Lomachenko as to who's the best boxer in the world pound for pound.

But this Saturday night, Spence gets to make his case as the best in the welterweight division (and perhaps in all of boxing) vs. an opponent likely better than anyone Crawford has faced in his career in Shawn Porter. Spence is coming off a highly impressive victory of his own in winning every round on all three judges' scorecards this past March vs. then-undefeated and pound-for-pound ranked Mikey Garcia; prior to washing Garcia, Spence won 14 of 15 fights - including 11 consecutive fights - by TKO/KO. The undefeated Spence has not only won, but dominated, every fight of his 25-fight professional career but now faces another elite welterweight in Porter, whose only two losses have been to a then-undefeated Keith Thurman (who lost the first fight of his career this past July to Manny Pacquiao) and to a then-undefeated Kell Brook (who lost to Spence in 2017).

This fight is intriguing as it may be the first time in Spence's career he's fighting an opponent who can match (and arguably even exceed) him in terms of pure strength and physicality. (Porter - a former star football player in high school - has the physical build of a football player and competed mostly as a middleweight (160 lbs) in his early professional career and as an amateur.) Given these attributes - and given Porter's underrated boxing IQ as well as decided advantage in experience vs. top-level welterweight opponents - this is likely the toughest fight Spence could make at welterweight other than a much-anticipated superfight with Crawford.

Spence vs. Porter - a welterweight unification title fight - will be Fox's 3rd boxing PPV fight this year (as well as 3rd in the history of the network) following fight-of-the-year candidate Pacquiao vs. Thurman this past July and Spence vs. Garcia back in March. The winner of this fight is set up nicely for a possible unification megafight (and likely 8-figure payday) next year vs. Pacquiao, the current WBA welterweight champion.

Prefight Analysis

Outside of Terence Crawford, I've felt for a while now that Porter might be the toughest challenge for Spence at welterweight. Unlike pretty much every other welterweight Spence has fought (with the exception of Brook, who was actually beating Spence on two out of three judges' scorecards through seven rounds prior to ultimately getting stopped in the 11th round), Porter is on the same level as Spence in terms of pure strength and physicality. Porter is a strong, stocky welterweight who is actually used to fighting boxers bigger than him - whether as an amateur or very early in his professional career where he fought mostly at middleweight or in sparring where his trainer (father Kenny Porter) routinely matches him up with middleweights and super middleweights. (Porter's training for Saturday night's fight included sparring sessions with an undefeated, elite former super middleweight champion in David Benavidez.) Given Porter's own physical strength and experience fighting bigger opponents, it's tough to imagine Porter getting overwhelmed by Spence's size (as has been the fate of most of Spence's recent opponents).

Porter has a more aggressive, physical style than Spence; that combined with his slightly faster hand speed I think will allow Porter to beat the more patient Spence to the punch and outwork him for much of the early rounds as Spence settles in to the fight. Porter is a somewhat versatile, underrated-IQ fighter who - while preferring to brawl from the inside - has shown in his last two fights (vs. Yorgenis Ugas and in his early rounds vs. Danny Garcia) that he's capable of using foot movement and feints to box from the outside. Porter's unpredictability here combined with his typically awkward, wide-swinging style I think could work well for Porter in the early rounds vs. the more cautious Spence as he tries to figure Porter out. Spence's head movement in particular isn't great which I think will leave him susceptible to Porter's counterpunching and generally sharp left hooks on the inside.

Porter should also be given credit for being the much more experienced boxer in this matchup, having fought top welterweights such as Keith Thurman (who was undefeated at the time), Kell Brook (who was undefeated at the time), Danny Garcia (whose only loss at the time was to Thurman), Adrien Broner, and Devon Alexander (whose only loss at the time was to Timothy Bradley). Porter also has history of being a sparring partner for Manny Pacquiao when Pacquiao was in his prime (in preparation for Pacquiao's 2009 fight with Miguel Cotto and 2011 fight with Shane Mosley).By comparison, the only top welterweight Spence has fought in his career was Kell Brook, who at the time was coming off a TKO loss to Gennady Golovkin at middleweight.

Porter strikes me as the more determined fighter and arguably has more to prove than Spence does, as most folks seem to be writing this fight off as an easy one for the approximately 10-1 favorite Spence. But at least early, I expect this fight to surprise and be more competitive than most are expecting.

I do, however, think Spence will wear Porter down in the middle to late rounds with his punching power (in particular to the body) and superior technical skills. Spence has made it known that - unlike his most recent fight with Mikey Garcia where he largely outboxed Garcia from the outside - he's looking to make a statement and is gunning for a knockout victory vs. Porter. So after the early rounds, I expect Spence to apply pressure and try to fight Porter mostly on the inside. Porter can be elusive but I think given the PPV stage for this fight (Porter's first PPV fight and biggest fight of his career) that Porter (and his inner machismo) will look to trade punches with Spence on the inside more than he should (which I think will be to Porter's detriment). Porter has the hand speed and an aggressive enough style to outwork Spence but does not have the most defensively responsible technique on the inside. I see the power punches Spence will land from close range - especially to the body - being far more effective than Porter's pesky, but relatively innocuous style that has earned him only one TKO/KO victory in the last 4.5 years out of six fights. Though Porter is on Spence's level in terms of strength and physicality, I think Spence is a bit stronger and a bit more physical, with much greater punching power.

As the rounds progress, I think Spence - an underrated technician who dominated future hall-of-famer and four-division world champion Mikey Garcia largely by outboxing him from distance - will be increasingly effective in timing Porter with his jab and power punches. Porter has shown that he can box from the outside but note that Porter actually lost most of his early rounds vs. Danny Garcia while boxing from distance; Porter went on to win the middle rounds and the fight only after switching to a more brawling style inside. Also earlier this year, Porter barely eked out a split-decision victory boxing primarily from distance vs. a three-loss fighter in Yordenis Ugas, a fight some feel he lost. So Porter's best results might have to come from fighting inside which - unfortunately for him - will leave him more open to counterpunching and body shots from the bigger, harder-punching Spence, who is expected to be going for the knockout on Saturday night. I wouldn't be surprised if this fight becomes a mismatch on the inside by the later rounds.

Despite this I do, however, think Porter's elusiveness, determination, and grit will get him through the 12 rounds. As mentioned previously, Porter has a lot of experience fighting bigger guys and has also never even come close to being stopped in his professional career. Porter not only has horizontal elusiveness with his feet, he has great vertical elusiveness driven by his naturally low center of gravity that I expect to somewhat mitigate the effectiveness of Spence's power punches from close range.

If Spence were to stop Porter I think it would be (by far) the most impressive win of his career and would give him a solid case as not only the best welterweight boxer in the world but best boxer overall pound-for-pound. It wouldn't be surprising if Spence got the stoppage late but all things considered, the value I think lies with Porter surviving the distance in what should be a clear decision victory for Spence (though again I think the fight will be competitive early). I think there's value in both Spence by decision (which can currently be found at -140) and Spence by unanimous decision (which currently can be found at +115).

I will be at this fight Saturday night in Los Angeles - definitely hoping this one turns out to be every bit as good as Porter's fight-of-the-year candidate with Keith Thurman three years ago in NYC!

Prediction: Spence by decision

Recommended bet: Spence wins by any decision (bet to WIN .5 unit) 

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Danny Garcia vs. Shawn Porter: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Danny Garcia (34-1, 20 KOs) vs. Shawn Porter (28-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: September 8, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Garcia -150, Porter +140 (5 Dimes, 9/8/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #6 ranked welterweight, Porter: #4 ranked welterweight
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Porter: Orthodox
Referee: Steve Willis

Why you should watch this fight

There's a general consensus on who the cream of the crop fighters are in the welterweight division. Most feel Terence Crawford and Errol Spence - both currently rated amongst the top 10 boxers in the sport by Ring Magazine - are the two best fighters at welterweight right now. Keith Thurman - an undefeated, former unified (and current WBA) welterweight champion who beat both Garcia and Porter in (very) closely-contested decisions - is also up there near the top, though is understandably not quite as highly regarded at this point due to a 1.5-year absence from the ring following his split decision victory vs. Garcia last year. (An elbow surgery last year and injury to his left hand earlier this year have postponed his return to the ring.) Some (including myself) might even still throw Manny Pacquiao into this mix after his recent, impressive 7th-round TKO victory vs. Lucas Matthysse for a version of the WBA world title, his first victory by stoppage since 2009 vs. Miguel Cotto.

Prior to their losses to Thurman, Danny Garcia and Shawn Porter were both considered amongst the very elite of welterweights with each having a small case as being the top fighter at 147 lbs. The winner of Saturday's fight will win the WBC welterweight title Thurman vacated this April and be in line for a unification fight with IBF welterweight champion (and fellow Premier Boxing Champions fighter) Spence in early 2019, where Garcia or Porter - with a victory vs. Spence - can reclaim their status as arguably the best fighter in the welterweight division.

The loser of this fight will still be regarded by most as one of the better welterweights in the sport and will still be in line for solid paydays in future matchups, but will likely never get back to the very top of the division after yet another loss to a top opponent.

Prefight Analysis

On paper, Garcia vs. Porter is a fairly even matchup. It's certainly an interesting style clash featuring two different forms of aggression - an aggressive, yet patient fighter in Garcia who relies primarily on timely counterpunching from mid-range distance vs. a sometimes hyper-aggressive fighter in Porter who often overwhelms his opponents with brute force and pressure on the inside.

I can see why Garcia is considered the slight favorite. Garcia is the better pure boxer in this matchup. He has better overall boxing skills, is the more accurate puncher, is more responsible defensively, and has higher boxing IQ (which makes him more capable of correct technical adjustments over the course of a fight). Although Garcia isn't as physically strong as Porter, he actually has superior punching power to Porter in both hands, including a sneaky left hook that is rated by many as one of the best left hooks in the sport. Garcia possesses a patient, counterpunching style that's well-suited to land solid, clean power punches vs. Porter's at-times reckless ambush attacks.

Porter is typically able to outwork and dominate counter punchers that have a relatively low work rate (most notably Adrien Broner who he defeated by wide unanimous decision in 2015) but Garcia, although patient, is an aggressive counterpuncher who will likely be much more willing to engage and trade punches with Porter than defensive-minded counterpunchers Porter's fought in the past like Broner.

Historically - in fights considered even matchups on paper, the more fundamentally sound fighter prevails more often than not. In this matchup, Garcia is the more fundamentally sound, traditionally-styled boxer with the skill set to counter Porter's awkward, wild-punching, brawler style that often leaves him open for clean counters. One thing not often noted about Garcia is that he has terrific - arguably Golovkin-like - balance, which is one of the reasons he has an excellent chin (considered by many to be one of the best in boxing as he's never even come close to being knocked down or knocked out in a fight as a professional). Garcia's balance is also a large part of the reason he has deceptive, yet concussive knockout power in both hands.

The crowd at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn - less than a two-hour drive from Garcia's hometown of Philadelphia - is expected to be pro-Garcia which could influence the action inside the ring as well as the judging outside of it.

The only loss of Garcia's career was a very close, split-decision loss last year to an undefeated, at the time pound-for-pound rated Keith Thurman who beat Porter by a competitive, but unanimous decision. It's likely Garcia vs. Porter will be a similarly competitive fight and many expect that Garcia should perform at least as well vs. Porter as he did vs. Thurman.

But despite Garcia's advantages - which in my opinion include superior boxing ability - I actually favor Porter in this matchup, especially given the excellent value offered on Porter to win (+150) and Porter to win by decision (+245).

I like Porter's superior physical strength and high-energy brawler style to overwhelm Garcia's patient, relatively low-volume style, especially down the stretch. Porter is a very strong, athletic welterweight who actually fought most of his amateur career as a middleweight (and has pro experience fighting at weight classes higher than 147 lbs) and has a background as a football standout in high school (to the extent that he was awarded all-conference honors and was offered athletic scholarships to play football in college). Porter's superior strength complemented by his typically high punch rate I think will allow him to outwork a physically weaker Garcia who actually fought most of his pro career at light welterweight (140 lbs) and moved up to welterweight just two years ago. Again, I do rate Garcia as the better boxer of the two and think he has the more dangerous punching power - especially if he lands clean. But Porter is a savvy, highly-skilled boxer in his own right with underrated skills. I see Porter staying close to Garcia and exploiting his natural advantage on the inside; staying on the inside will also allow Porter to smother the punching power Garcia has from mid-range.

Keith Thurman was able to edge Porter in a close fight primarily due to solid footwork and movement, which stymied Porter's pressure. Garcia is relatively flat-footed in comparison and won't be nearly as adept in evading Porter's attack. Garcia has very good timing on his counter punches but Porter has an unpredictable, herky-jerky style featuring a variety of at-times erratic head and body feints that it may take a few rounds for Garcia to adjust to.

Even a lesser, battle-worn pressure fighter in Brandon Rios was able to give Garcia trouble in spots. Porter is a couple of levels above Rios - bigger, stronger, faster, less predictable, more physical, much more skilled, and can be just as aggressive when on the offensive. Garcia has beaten quality opponents at light welterweight and beaten better opponents than Rios at welterweight but has yet to beat an opponent nearly as good as Porter at 147 lbs.

I think Porter - especially coming into this fight as the underdog - will feel he has more to prove and that his energy, physicality, and constant punch activity will be too much for Garcia's more laid-back, low-volume approach. I'm usually partial to the fighter with superior boxing skills but in this instance, I think Porter's superior athleticism, strength, punch volume, and aggression will trump Garcia's superior boxing ability - especially considering that Porter's own boxing ability is high-level and a bit underrated.

Even if this fight were at even money I'd favor Porter but I for sure like the value on Porter as a +140 underdog. With Garcia's granite chin and cautious style, I'd grade Porter to win by decision at +200 or above as an even better bet. (I recommend placing bets on both to mitigate risk.)

I don't see either fighter beating Spence down the road but this is a solid, 50/50 matchup that I look forward to watching!

Prediction: Porter to win

Recommended bet: 1) Porter to win (.5 unit)
2) Porter wins by 12-round decision (.5 unit)

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Broner vs. Vargas: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Adrien Broner (33-3, 24 KOs) vs. Jessie Vargas (28-2, 10 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: April 21, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs - though fight is being fought at a catchweight of 144 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  None
TV: Showtime
Line: Broner: +120, Vargas: -130 (5 Dimes, 4/21/18)
Purses: Broner: $1 million, Vargas: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Broner: Not ranked, Vargas: #7 ranked welterweight
Style: Broner: Orthodox, Vargas: Orthodox
Referee: Charlie Fitch

Why you should watch this fight

As indicated by the betting odds, Broner vs. Vargas is a fairly even-matched fight between Adrien Broner, an immensely talented boxer who's won major world titles in an impressive four different weight classes (and was the youngest fighter in boxing history to do so), and Jessie Vargas, a skilled fighter in his own right who's won major world titles in two weight classes.

Both fighters are in their late 20s and still very much in their primes, but for both, this fight is likely a true "last chance" to keep their names amongst the mix of the top fighters in the welterweight (147 lbs) and junior welterweight (140 lbs) divisions; the loser of this fight will likely - and perhaps permanently - be relegated to gatekeeper status.

Broner - at one time rated as high as the #5 pound-for-pound fighter in the world by Ring Magazine - suffered the first loss of his career 3.5 years ago vs. aggressive power-puncher Marcos Maidana. Broner also lost (decisively) the two times he stepped up to fight A-level competition - a wide unanimous decision loss to Shawn Porter in the summer of 2015 and, in his most recent fight 7 months ago, another clear unanimous decision loss to (undefeated) current junior welterweight champion Mikey Garcia. A loss to a respected. but relatively unheralded Vargas would possibly be the worst loss of his career and perhaps be confirmation Broner doesn't have the physical (or mental) skills or ability to beat a top-level opponent.

Vargas has had similar opportunities to break through vs. A-level opponents - his fight vs. Timothy Bradley Jr. in 2015 and his fight vs. Manny Pacquiao for the WBO welterweight title in 2016. Like Broner, both opportunities resulted in wide unanimous decision losses. A loss to Broner would actually be the worst loss of his career and solidify his status in a currently stacked welterweight division as a gatekeeper (as opposed to legitimate title contender).

But the winner of this fight will likely find himself right back in the mix near the top of the welterweight (or light welterweight) division and would be a prime candidate for a title shot in their next fight. (A title shot that could conceivably be accompanied by a 7-figure payday.)

Broner vs. Vargas is the headliner for a stacked card which also features former light middleweight (154 lbs) champion Jermall Charlo - who has recently moved up in weight and will be fighting the second middleweight fight of his career vs. Hugo Centeno Jr. - and former super featherweight champion Gervonta Davis, an electrifying, young knockout puncher seeking to regain the super featherweight title after losing it on the scales last year on the undercard of the Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor PPV event.

Prefight Analysis

I see Broner vs. Vargas as a relatively even matchup between two B+-level fighters and, quite frankly, there are more tangible reasons to pick Broner than Vargas in this fight.

Broner is unquestionably the more talented fighter with the superior set of skills in this matchup. He's more athletic, has quicker hands and feet, is the more accurate and efficient puncher, has superior punching power, and has better defensive fundamentals.

Although Broner has lost every time he's stepped up to face A-level competition very few observers, if any, would consider Vargas to be an A-level fighter. (Vargas himself has lost the two times he's stepped up to face A-level competition.) To be fair, Broner was reasonably competitive in his most recent loss vs. Garcia, losing a few rounds that were actually fairly close. Most of the rounds Broner lost in that fight (as well as most of the rounds he lost in his two previous losses to Maidana and Porter) were due to essentially being forced to box off his back foot (i.e., box while backing up) in deference to his opponent's high-level punching power and effective aggression. One would think Broner will be more aggressive and take more risks vs. Vargas - a fighter with a career TKO/KO percentage of only 33% (10 wins by TKO or KOsin 30 career fights) who doesn't have anywhere near the punching power of any of the fighters Broner has lost to previously.

Vargas is a scrappy, but somewhat predictable fighter who boxes mostly behind a straightforward (though solid) jab and basic 1-2 punch combinations. He comes into this fight with a 4" height and 2" reach advantage but has shown in previous fights a willingness to give up his height and reach advantage to fight inside, which could easily be to Broner's advantage given his superior hand speed, accuracy, and power.

Broner, in my opinion, is the fighter more likely to easily adjust to the 144-lb catchweight for this fight; he's fought 7 of his last 8 fights over the past 4 years below 144 lbs. Vargas, on the other hand, hasn't fought below welterweight (147 lbs) since 2014 so may be more prone to feeling the effects of weight drain coming into fight night. (It was in fact Broner who requested the catchweight for this fight, presumably to gain an advantage on Vargas who is more accustomed at the higher weight limit.)

Overall, I see Broner as the superior, more talented boxer who is well aware that a loss here would likely be the most devastating of his career and perhaps permanently end any consideration of him as a top-level fighter. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Broner, fighting for the first time under new trainer Kevin Cunningham, put on a strong performance and get the win here - especially as the "A-side" of this boxing promotion in front of what I expect to be a pro-Broner crowd in NYC. (Vargas is a West Coast fighter who casual boxing fans on the East Coast are largely unfamiliar with.)

But while I think there are more reasons than not that Broner *should* win, I'm picking Vargas to win this fight. Despite Broner's (numerous) advantages, I think the key to this fight will be punch activity; Vargas is actually a more active puncher than Mikey Garcia, who outworked Broner in Broner's most recent fight by throwing nearly twice as many punches despite being the naturally smaller boxer. I rate Vargas as a slightly more talented version of Adrian Granados - a fighter with a pedestrian resume who Broner barely beat by split decision last year in his hometown of Cincinnati (despite getting decisively outworked by Granados, who threw nearly 300 more punches than Broner). Broner has consistently demonstrated issues with punch (in)activity throughout his career vs. even mediocre opponents and has a proven habit of fighting down to his level of opposition; I fully expect Vargas to be the aggressor and outwork Broner as most of his recent opponents have done. Note that in the past, Vargas has gotten the benefit of a few very close, controversial decisions largely by outworking his opponent (see his fights vs. Josesito Lopez and Wale Omotoso as prime examples); a matchup vs. a relatively punch-selective Broner is another fight where Vargas has stands a good chance of eking out a victory on the judges' scorecards based on activity if the fight happens to be close either way.

Vargas doesn't have Broner's quickness or defensive abilities, but is skilled enough to stay out of real trouble vs. a typically risk-averse Broner who I think at the end of the day will stay true to his usual form and not take too many chances in this fight. It's also worth noting that the impressive power Broner demonstrated at lower weights earlier in his career hasn't carried up as well to higher weight classes; at below 140 lbs Broner is undefeated and boasts an 85% TKO/KO percentage (22 KOs in 26 fights). In his 4 fights above 140 lbs, Broner is 2-2 with no wins by TKO or KO.

As mentioned previously Vargas, like Broner, has yet to defeat an A-level opponent. However he was reasonably competitive vs. Bradley (who he arguably came close to stopping near the end of the 12th round of their fight) and Pacquiao (where one judge had him losing by only a single point), and earned an impressive 9th round stoppage victory vs. then undefeated Sadam Ali, who is currently the light middleweight champion of the world after beating future hall-of-fame fighter Miguel Cotto (in what was promoted as the final fight of Cotto's career) by unanimous decision. (So Vargas has stepped up and generally fought well vs. high-level opposition despite losing most of those fights.)

As shown with some of his antics leading up to the fight - which included confrontations with the lead promoter of the event, other fighters on the card, and even a Brooklyn-based rapper - Broner appears to lack professionalism and seriousness in his prefight preparations. Broner has actually performed below expectations in nearly every fight he's fought since his impressive TKO victory over then WBC lightweight champion Antonio DeMarco in 2012 - including even the fights he's won. I like Broner personally but see little to indicate that things will change vs. Vargas despite the obvious importance of this fight to his career.

I see Vargas's work rate and typical scrappiness vs. Broner's efficient but low-volume, reluctant-to-take-risk style resulting in a close fight that likely goes Vargas's way. I can't see Vargas stopping a tough-chinned Broner (who's fairly solid defensively and has never really come close to being stopped in his career), so see the best bet on this fight as Vargas to win by decision - which can currently be found as high as +135 on Bookmaker.

 At the end of the day, this fight is less predictable than most given that 1) this is the first fight of Broner's professional career under new trainer Kevin Cunningham (thus difficult to anticipate whether the new trainer will positively or negatively impact Broner's performance), 2) the fight will be fought at a 144-lb catchweight (again, difficult to predict the impact the catchweight will have on each fighter though, as mentioned above, I suspect the catchweight will favor Broner), and 3) both fighters have been relatively inactive recently, each having fought only once in the past 14 months.

But in many ways this is an even matchup featuring clashing styles which should make for an interesting and entertaining fight no matter who emerges victorious.I'll be at this fight Saturday night and looking forward to see what unfolds!

Prediction: Vargas by decision

Recommended bet(s): 1) Vargas by 12 round decision (1 unit) 

2) Broner/Vargas goes the full 12 round distance (.33 unit)

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Deontay Wilder vs. Luis Ortiz: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Deontay Wilder (39-0, 38 KOs) vs. Luis Ortiz (28-0, 24 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: March 3, 2018
Weight class: Heavyweight
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World heavyweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Wilder: -325, Ortiz: +295 (5 Dimes, 3/3/18)
Purses: Wilder: $2.1 million, Ortiz: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Ortiz: #5 ranked heavyweight
Style: Wilder: Orthodox, Ortiz: Southpaw
Referee: David Fields

Why you should watch this fight

A once long-dormant heavyweight division has been heating up over the past couple of years with the emergence of undefeated stars like Anthony Joshua, Deontay Wilder, Luis Ortiz, and Australian Jason Parker to once again become one of the most exciting divisions in the sport. (Undefeated Tyson Fury, who ended Wladimir Klitschko's nearly decade-long reign as heavyweight champion in 2015 is also reportedly making a return to the ring this year after a more than two-year hiatus.)

All four major heavyweight titles are currently held by Joshua (WBA, IBF), Wilder (WBC), and Parker (WBO); this Saturday's fight between Wilder and Ortiz in Brooklyn and the fight later this month (March 31st) between Joshua and Parker in the United Kingdom essentially serve as semifinal matchups for a superfight later this year or early next year that hopefully crowns the first undisputed heavyweight champion of the world in nearly 18 years (Lennox Lewis in 2000).

Wilder is one of the most feared and avoided boxers in the sport - the WBC heavyweight champion who boasts a perfect record 39-0, with 38 of those wins (97.4%) coming by TKO/KO. Half (19) of those 38 knockouts have come in the first round, including his most recent fight last November - a rematch vs. Bermane Stiverne. Wilder has excellent power in both hands (particularly his right) and - in knocking out Stiverne last November - has knocked out every opponent he's faced in his professional career. (In their first fight back in January 2015, Stiverne went the full 12 round distance with Wilder, losing a unanimous decision.)

Wilder, who has been heavyweight champion for three years (since beating Stiverne to earn the title), will be making his seventh title defense vs. undefeated Cuban heavyweight Luis Ortiz. Like Wilder, Ortiz is also a feared, heavily-avoided fighter with excellent power - only two of his scored 28 professional fights have gone the distance, with the other 26 ending in victory by early TKO/KO/DQ. (Ortiz also had two other fights that ended as an early stoppage victory but were later ruled no contests and struck from his win-loss record.)

Ortiz is by far the toughest opponent Wilder has faced in his career and is considered by most observers to have better overall skills than Wilder. At 38 years old, Ortiz is looking to win his first major world title belt. Ortiz is also attempting to become the first Cuban fighter - and first Latino born outside the United States - in boxing history to win a heavyweight title.

Again, Wilder vs. Ortiz will be one of the more significant fights to take place this year - the winner will be in line for a fight vs. the winner of Joshua vs. Parker (a fight that takes place in a few weeks) to determine the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world (assuming the politics of boxing don't get in the way and the fight can actually be made).

Prefight Analysis

All things considered, Wilder is the guy who I feel will probably win this fight. Wilder has exceptional power in both hands (to the point of - as I've mentioned above - having knocked out every opponent he's faced in his career), is in his prime, and is facing a past-prime fighter in a 38-year old Ortiz who can't match Wilder's athleticism or speed. Ortiz can box on the move but, given his relative deficit in athleticism and speed compared to Wilder, I find it unlikely he'll be able to evade Wilder's game-changing punching power for a full 12 rounds.

I expect Wilder's above-average jab and rangy boxing style - augmented by an 83" reach and 7' wingspan - to do a decent enough job of keeping Ortiz's offensive attack at bay. (More precisely, I expect Wilder's ability to box from distance, his quicker foot movement, as well as Ortiz's respect of Wilder's knockout power, to largely nullify Ortiz's clear advantage in boxing skill.) Wilder is a supremely confident, determined fighter who's made it known that he wants to go down as one of the all-time greats. Perhaps it's more talk and bravado than "all-time great"-caliber substance but I truly believe Wilder flat out just wants to win this fight more than Ortiz and that that desire will go a long way towards carrying him to victory here. Wilder is one of my favorite boxers - I'm rooting for him to win this fight and would grade him at approximately 55-60% to get the victory Saturday night.

But with all that said, it's tough to overlook the value of Ortiz as a 3-1 underdog. Like Wilder, Ortiz is also undefeated with impressive power (as evidenced by his career 80% TKO/KO ratio). And like Wilder, Ortiz has never even come close to losing a fight in his professional career. But Ortiz is almost certainly the more skilled, versatile fighter in this matchup. Ortiz is a high-level, Cuban-schooled technical boxer with extensive amateur experience (an impressive 343-19 record in the amateurs) facing a still somewhat raw fighter in Wilder who's arguably not shown much in the way skill other than a solid, rangy (though often basic and predictable) jab to complement his explosive power and athleticism. Though not his fault (as he's consistently called out top-level competition to fight him and has even been more than willing to travel overseas in hostile territory for big fights), Wilder has yet as a pro to face an elite heavyweight -  Ortiz will be by far the best he'll have faced thus far in his career.

Ortiz likely has the advantage in a pure boxing match, and also in fighting from close distance as he's proven in numerous fights to be a skilled inside fighter - whereas Wilder has actually struggled on the inside vs. lesser opponents (see stretches of Wilder's recent fights vs. Gerald Washington, Artur Spilka, and Eric Molina). If Ortiz can use his superior boxing skill to evade Wilder's power (in particular limit the effectiveness of Wilder's right hand) he has an excellent chance of winning the fight to the point where I wouldn't be at all surprised if he stops Wilder in the mid to late rounds. Ortiz is the more accurate, savvy power puncher facing a fighter in Wilder who at times is prone to swinging wildly (thus leaving himself out of position and open to clean counterpunching) and whose chin has never been tested by an elite puncher.

There are reasons why even Wilder's promoter, Lou DiBella, was reluctant to take what is widely considered a high-risk, relatively low-reward fight for Wilder. Given his frequent mentions of UK heavyweight superstar Anthony Joshua in the prefight build-up to this fight, I suspect Wilder is at least somewhat overlooking this fight and perhaps underestimating Ortiz - who I'll point out again is a heavy-handed power puncher who has never come close to losing a fight in his professional career and is the more technically skilled boxer in this matchup.

I do think in this fight that Wilder's impressive power from distance - and superior athleticism and speed - is likely to overwhelm Ortiz's superior skill en route to a 39th victory by stoppage in his 40th fight. But given Ortiz's clear advantage in skill and experience - as well as the fight-changing punching power he himself brings to the table - I can't help but think Ortiz to win at (approximately) +300 odds is the best bet on this fight. If you're giving me +300 odds (even currently as high as +325 at some books) on the better skilled, more experienced and versatile fighter who's never come close to losing a fight (and who's never even been knocked down in his career), I'll take those odds almost every time. Especially when he's up against a guy who - despite an impressive record - has no experience vs. top-level competition and relies more on his athleticism and power than his still somewhat raw boxing abilities. But I will hedge the primary bet on Ortiz to win with what I feel is the most likely outcome of the fight - Wilder by TKO/KO (which can currently be found as low as -150 at Bovada).

I'll be at this fight Saturday night so regardless of the outcome I'm expecting some intense, explosive between these two heavy-handed heavyweights!

Prediction: Wilder by TKO/KO

Recommended bet(s): 1) Ortiz to win (risk .5 unit) 

2) Wilder by TKO/KO (to win .5 unit)

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Broner vs. Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Adrien Broner (33-2-0 24 KOs) vs. Mikey Garcia (36-0-0, 30 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: July 29, 2017
Weight class: Super Lightweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: Showtime
Line: Garcia: -200, Broner: +185 (5 Dimes, 7/29/17)
Purse: Garcia: $1 million, Broner: $1 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #1 ranked lightweight, Broner: Not ranked (neither fighter is ranked at super lightweight)
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Broner: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

Of all the big fights this year between high-profile boxers this could very easily end up being the most entertaining of them all. You have an undefeated, three-division world champion in Mikey Garcia moving up in weight to fight at a full 140 lbs for the first time in his career vs. a former four-division world champion in Adrien Broner, who comes into this fight as a significant underdog but is undefeated fighting below 147 lbs. Shortly after this fight was announced, Garcia was as high as a -720 (!) favorite over Broner but the odds have tightened considerably over the past few weeks to where Garcia is now only a little bit more than a -200 favorite at most sportsbooks.

As the undefeated - arguably more skilled - and more serious and composed fighter, Garcia understandably comes into this fight as the clear favorite. But Broner, despite his previous struggles vs. top-level contenders and immaturity in as well as outside of the ring, is a high IQ boxer in his own right with A-level talent and very good punching power at 140 lbs. There is also a potential size disparity here - Garcia's last fight was at lightweight (135 lbs) and he'll be moving up to 140 lbs to fight at a weight he's never fought at before while Broner's last  fight was at welterweight (147 lbs) and he'll be moving down to fight at a weight where he'll likely be more comfortable and have more effective punching power vs. his smaller opponent.

This fight is a clash between two of the more well-known non-PPV fighters in the sport. The fight is the biggest fight in both boxers' careers and is especially intriguing given both the clash in personalities (serious, laid-back, quiet Garcia vs. the often silly, brash, loquacious Broner) and clash in fighting styles (cautiously aggressive power puncher in Garcia vs. relatively low-output counter puncher in Broner). If Garcia wins on Saturday, he'll cement his return (after having fought just twice in the past 3.5 years due to a contract dispute with his previous promoter, Top Rank) as one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport and should set him up nicely for a big money fight - whether that's a title shot at 140 lbs or at title defense back down at 135 lbs, where he is the current WBC champion.

If Broner wins it would be the signature win of his career and go a (very) long way to proving to his numerous skeptics that he's now serious about living up to his enormous potential. As one of only 16 fighters in the history of boxing to have won major titles in 4 different weight classes, if Broner can pull off the upset here vs. Garcia, the boxing community will have to start at least thinking - as crazy as it may sound to some - about whether this guy deserves a spot in the International Boxing Hall of Fame someday.

Why Mikey Garcia will win

Garcia is an undefeated (36-0) boxer who has won major world titles in three division, including the lightweight division where he is the current WBC champion. Garcia won that lightweight championship this past January via 3rd round KO, in what was his first career fight in the lightweight division and only his second fight after a 2.5 year layoff from the sport due to a contractual dispute with then promoter Top Rank.

Garcia is a very good to great boxing technician with excellent punching power, as evidenced by his career 83.3% career KO ratio which ranks among the best of any active boxer regardless of weight class. Pound-for-pound, Garcia is indeed one of the hardest punchers in the sport, but he's also an extremely patient fighter who boxes with caution and tends to wait for opportunities to counter from mid- and long-range distance rather than brawl inside. Garcia will almost certainly not be as aggressive or physical as Marcos Maidana or Shawn Porter were in their victories vs. Broner (which are the only two losses of Broner's career) but his punch output is higher than the relatively low-volume Broner and his notable punching power should be effective enough even at the higher weight class, especially against a somewhat flat-footed Broner. Garcia scored two knockdowns in his only other career appearance in the super lightweight division, a 5th round TKO victory vs. Elio Rojas last July. (The TKO loss to Garcia was the first time Rojas had been stopped in his career.)  

Garcia is also known as a high IQ boxer who makes up for lack of elite athleticism with excellent fundamentals and footwork. His balance and leverage behind which he throws his power punches is somewhat resemblant of the fighter widely considered to be the top knockout artist in the sport, Gennady Golovkin. While he likely won't be as effective as Maidana or Porter were at smothering Broner with hyper-aggression, he has much better timing and accuracy than either of those boxers (or any boxer Broner has faced previously in his career for that matter),  and his patient, cautious style will leave him much less susceptible to Broner's counter punching than Maidana or Porter were. (Despite losing to both, Broner landed his share of clean shots vs. Porter and Maidana; Porter was knocked down in the 12th round in his victory over Broner and Maidana has commented multiple times on Broner being the hardest puncher he's ever faced.)

Unlike Broner, who is a jokester by nature and has developed a reputation for not taking the sport as seriously as he perhaps should, Garcia has always been a very serious, mature fighter who seemingly always comes into his fights very focused and prepared. Garcia knows that this is the biggest fight of his career and a win over Broner - one of the most well-known boxers in the sport - will lead to significant paydays in future fights as it did for both Maidana and Porter, who each have earned seven-figure paydays in all of their fights since defeating Broner. (Maidana earned over $3 million in each of his fights vs. Floyd Mayweather before retiring and, after beating Broner, Porter earned at least $1 million in his fights vs. both Keith Thurman and Andre Berto.)

Garcia is a fighter many consider to be one of the best in the sport pound-for-pound and is facing an opponent in Broner who has lost decisively (by wide unanimous decision) every time he's stepped up to face a top-level opponent. Broner's most high profile win was perhaps a controversial split-decision victory vs. Paulie Malignaggi, who was 32-years old at the time and a bit past his prime. Broner typically performs below expectation in his fights; the last fight in which Broner clearly met or exceeded performance expectations was perhaps his 8th round TKO victory way back in 2012 vs. Antonio DeMarco, who was a very solid contender at the time.

Garcia is likely much more familiar with Broner's fighting style and tendencies than Broner is of his. Garcia is trained by his older brother, widely respected trainer Robert Garcia, who was Maidana's trainer when Maidana decisively beat Broner in Broner's first career loss back in 2013 (a fight where Broner suffered the only two knockdowns of his career). Garcia's familiarity and previous success training against Broner should allow him to better prepare for this fight compared to Broner's training team, who have relatively little recent film on Garcia to draw from given that Garcia has only fought twice and in a total of eight rounds in the past 3.5 years (due largely to his 2.5 years of inactivity).

Why Adrien Broner will win

Broner is a former four-division world champion who, when he was just 26 years old, became the youngest fighter in boxing history to win major world titles in four different weight classes. Although he often hasn't fought up to his potential thus far in his career (which makes having won world titles in four different weight classes all the more impressive), Broner is a top-level talent who less than 3.5 years ago was ranked #5 pound-for-pound in the world by Ring Magazine and considered by some the heir apparent to Floyd Mayweather before his surprising loss to Maidana, who came into the fight as high as a 5-1 (+500) underdog.

Broner is a 27-year old fighter still very much in the prime of his career and will come into Saturday's fight holding advantages in size, physical strength, and athleticism over Gracia. Broner also has quicker hands and - despite Garcia's proven punching power - Broner may actually have slightly better power than Garcia at 140 lbs. Broner's size and strength in particular may be a major factor in this fight - despite the two losses (and getting knocked down twice in the process), Broner was able to hold his own and showed a good chin at a higher weight class (147 lbs) vs. two well-respected punchers in Maidana and Porter; it wouldn't be surprising at all to see Broner have better success managing Garcia's power at this lower weight. Garcia, on the other hand, has been knocked down once before - in 2013 at a much lower weight class (130 lbs) and by a fighter in Rocky Martinez not known for his punching power. Garcia's chin has been relatively untested in the lower weight classes he's fought in - Broner will be (perhaps by far) the biggest, toughest power puncher he's faced thus far in his career.

This is Garcia's first fight at a full 140 lbs, a weight Broner has fought at or higher than in the majority of his fights over the past four years and won a world title in less than two years ago. Broner has the two losses in his career, but he's undefeated (29-0) fighting below 147 lbs and will be fighting a smaller, weaker guy in Garcia. Broner's two losses at welterweight were largely due to Maidana and Porter being able to use their physicality and awkward, hyper-aggressive fighting styles to overwhelm Broner; a smaller, less aggressive Garcia likely won't be able to do the same Saturday night.

Garcia is known to be a high IQ, very skilled fighter but Broner is a slick, skilled technician in his own right; Broner is a relatively accurate, efficient puncher with power in both hands (as evidenced by his respectable 67% TKO/KO percentage), as well as an effective jab and solid one-two combination punching (though the knock on Broner is he's often not been able to put together more than two-punch combination punches vs. tougher opponents).

Broner also has an advantage in experience over Garcia, having fought numerous former world champions including Porter, Maidana, Malignaggi, Daniel Ponce De Leon, De Marco, and Gavin Rees, among others. Garcia is relatively untested in comparison, with perhaps the best wins of his career coming in 2013 vs. Juan Manuel Lopez - who's lost his last four title fights by TKO/KO due to a weak chin - and vs. 13-loss former world champion Orlando Salido. It also seems to be getting overlooked that Garcia has fought only twice in the past 3.5 years. Given Garcia's relatively weak level of competition and recent inactivity over the past few years it's highly possible Garcia is being overrated in this matchup.

Despite being a bit flat-footed, Broner has better defense than most give him credit for. Broner is adept with both the shoulder roll and high guard defense. With his quick reflexes, he slips and rolls punches fairly well from inside and is generally a difficult boxer to hit cleanly. If Garcia's punching power doesn't carry up to 140 lbs as well as most expect it will there's a good chance Broner's defense will easily be able to withstand Garcia's attack. If Broner was able to last 12 rounds at welterweight with an over 80% TKO/KO percentage fighter in Maidana, and was able to withstand the attack of Porter - a big welterweight who has had a lot of pro experience fighting at middleweight (160 lbs) - it stands to reason that Broner won't have too much difficulty with a less imposing, relatively patient puncher in Garcia who's coming up from a smaller weight class.

Broner has shown signs of taking this fight more seriously than previous high-profile fights where he's put forth disappointing performances. He's moved his training camp from his usual locations in Cincinnati, Ohio and Washington, D.C. to Colorado Springs, Colorado where he trained earlier in his career - presumably to minimize outside distractions. Broner has failed to make weight for multiple fights in the past and/or has negotiated a change in weight limit at the last minute so he could make weight but appears to have made the 140 lb weight for this fight without difficulty. Broner is a high profile, polarizing character who sells tickets often on his personality alone but he's well aware that Saturday's fight vs. Garcia may be his last opportunity to create a path to the Mayweather-level PPV superstardom he desires. Broner appears to be relishing the underdog status he has in this fight and sees this fight as an opportunity to prove a lot of his doubters wrong.

Prefight Analysis

In many ways this is a favorable matchup for Broner - he is the superior fighter in terms of size, physical strength, quickness, and athleticism. Broner also has more experience vs. top-level opponents and, at 140 lbs, arguably even packs more power behind his punch than the heavy-handed Garcia. Garcia may be the more skilled, fundamentally sound fighter but his skill and power will be mitigated by the fact that he's moving up in weight to fight at a full 140 lbs for the first time vs. a slick, defensively solid fighter in Broner who is comfortable at 140 lbs and even won a world title in the weight class less than two years ago. Broner is the biggest, most skilled, and most effective puncher Garcia has fought in his career. He's certainly a live underdog; if the +500 odds (for Broner to win) this fight opened at back in June were available today, I would take happily those odds and bet Broner without thinking too much about it.

With that said, I like Garcia to win this fight (at -200 odds) for a few reasons. Firstly, Garcia has always been a big boxer for the smaller weights he's fought at, to the extent of having had trouble making weight in a few fights and even losing his WBO featherweight title on the scales in his 2013 TKO victory vs. Juan Manuel Lopez after failing to make weight. 140 lbs is closer to Garcia's normal walk-around weight of 150-155 lbs; I see Garcia adjusting just fine to a weight closer to his normal weight and think his power will carry up to the higher weight accordingly. While Broner is resilient and has shown a decent chin vs. bigger opponents, I expect Garcia's power to be effective enough to cause problems for Broner, especially when you combine the leverage with which he throws his punches with his excellent timing and accuracy.

Again, Broner is the bigger, stronger fighter in this matchup but a big key here is that stylistically, Broner's a relatively low-volume, 1-2 punch combination counter puncher. I anticipate Broner's style and reluctance in many spots to be the aggressor to mostly mitigate the physical advantages he has over Garcia. Broner is at times flat-footed and often tentative in his attack, which I think will allow Garcia to press his attack more in the middle and later rounds after he develops a read on Broner's tendencies; I see Garcia having more success landing his jab and power right hand in particular as the fight progresses and he adjusts to Broner's style.

Broner is saying the Garcia fight will be the fight where he turns things around and shows why he should be considered one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport but he's actually said the same thing prior to most of his recent fights. The fact is, Broner hasn't performed up to expectations (i.e., the expectations of the A-level fighter that he was rated as earlier in his career) in *any* of his fights in recent years and has even struggled to win rounds vs. B-level fighters like Adrian Granados and Ashley Theophane (his two most recent opponents).

Garcia is perhaps the best fighter Broner has fought thus far in his career (a career in which he's already suffered two decisive losses, as well as being awarded multiple decisions that were deemed controversial and I think it will show Saturday night in what will be at times a highly competitive and entertaining, but clear victory for Garcia by decision or late stoppage. Broner certainly has the size, power, and skill to beat (or even stop) Garcia but given his fight style, I don't see him using his physicality or throwing enough punches to outpoint a patient - but more active - fighter in Garcia over the course of 12 rounds.

Prediction: Garcia to win

Recommended bet: Garcia to win (1 unit)

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Thurman vs. Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Keith Thurman (27-0, 22 KOs) vs. Danny Garcia (33-0, 19 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: March 4, 2017
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight and WBA Super World welterweight titles
TV: CBS
Line: Thurman -220, Garcia +200 (5 Dimes, 3/4/17)
Purse: Thurman: $2 million, Garcia: $2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Thurman: #2 ranked welterweight, Garcia: #7 ranked welterweight
Style: Thurman: Orthodox, Garcia: Orthodox
Referee: Michael Griffin

Why you should watch this fight

This is a key matchup in what right now is probably the most stacked weight class division in boxing. Thurman vs. Garcia will be just the 3rd fight in boxing history to match two undefeated welterweights in a unification title fight. (The previous matchup being the 1999 superfight vs. undefeated welterweight champions Oscar De La Hoya and Felix Trinidad.)

Thurman vs. Garcia will also be just the 2nd fight in nearly 40 years to air on CBS in primetime - the 1st fight being Thurman's victory last June vs. Shawn Porter in a classic that was widely considered a fight of the year candidate for 2016.

Prior to these two fights, the last fight to air on CBS in primetime was Leon Spinks'  split-decision upset victory vs. Muhammad Ali, the 1978 Ring Magazine Fight of the Year that gave Ali only the 3rd loss of his career and 1st loss since losing to Ken Norton nearly five years prior.

The winner of this fight will stand alongside Manny Pacquiao as arguably the top welterweight in boxing and - given Floyd Mayweather's recent retirement as well as Pacquiao's gradual but inevitable transition from boxer to full-time Philippine politician - is positioned to become one of the prominent faces of the division for years to come.

Along with the Pacquiao vs. Amir Khan and Kell Brook vs. Errol Spence fights tentatively scheduled for later this spring, Thurman vs. Garcia will go a long way towards clarifying who the top fighter is in what is probably the most talent-laden division in the sport.

Why Keith Thurman will win

Thurman is an undefeated fighter who has been the WBA welterweight champion since 2013. He's an aggressive boxer-puncher with good foot movement and one punch KO power in both hands. (Thurman has won 22 of his 27 pro fights by TKO/KO for an impressive KO% of 79%) At 28 years old, Thurman is in his prime and is highly confident coming off what was by far the best win of his career in last year's unanimous decision victory over top welterweight Shawn Porter.

 Aside from his natural power and athleticism, Thurman is a very thoughtful, highly intelligent boxer
who has noticeable advantages in size, speed, and mobility over Garcia. Thurman had a lot of success using foot movement to stay out of range vs. the herky-jerky ambush style of Porter; one would expect he will have even more success evading the power of the relatively flat-footed, more predictable Garcia.

Thurman has much more experience at welterweight than Garcia - he has fought essentially his entire career at 147 lbs or higher, while this will only be Garica's 4th fight at welterweight. Thurman at this point is fairly battle-tested at 147 with experience vs. some good power punchers in the division, while Garcia's toughest tests at 147 have been vs. Robert Guerrero and Paulie Malignaggi - both of whom are well past their prime. Although Garcia has two TKO victories in his three fights at welterweight, it's still unclear how well his proven power at 140 lbs will carry up vs. the top welterweights at 147; Thurman appears to be the naturally stronger fighter with the superior punching power in this matchup.

Like Thurman, Garcia is also undefeated but two of his recent victories (vs. Lamont Peterson and Mauricio Herrera - neither of whom are as highly regarded as Thurman) have been controversial, majority decision victories that many felt he lost. Garcia is a skilled, well-rounded fighter but has not proven to be an elite technician and is prone to being outboxed in large stretches of fights - including the later rounds of his fights vs. Peterson and Herrera, the early rounds of his 1st fight vs. a past prime Erik Morales, the early rounds of his fight vs. Khan, and even his split-decision victory vs. Ashley Theophane back in 2010 (a fight some felt Theophane won).

As proven in some of the fights noted above, boxers with solid jabs and good movement can frustrate Garcia's typically slow and flat-footed counterpunching style. If Thurman can establish his jab and use movement to evade Garcia's dangerous counterpunching ability, it will be extremely difficult for Garcia to win a 12 round decision given Thurman's seemingly superior size, speed, punching power, and boxing IQ - not to mention his advantage in experience at 147 lbs.

As a final point, it's worth noting that many seem to be overlooking the fact that Thurman's trainer is two-time Boxing Writers Association of America (BWAA) trainer of the year Dan Birmingham - a world class trainer who has trained the likes of former undisputed light middleweight champion Winky Wright and former Olympian and super middleweight champion Jeff Lacy. Birmingham and Thurman have known since early October that Garcia would be their next fight and have had a few months to game plan and prepare for the matchup.

Why Danny Garcia will win

Like Thurman, Garcia is also an undefeated fighter in his prime and has been a world champion in two different weight classes, unifying titles at junior welterweight (140 lbs) before moving up to win the vacant WBC welterweight championship vs. Robert Guerrero last year.

Garcia is a patient and poised counterpuncher who has overachieved considerably in becoming an undefeated, two-division world champion and one of the best boxers in the world pound for pound. Garcia has consistently risen to the occasion to beat top world-class opponents such as Lamont Peterson, Erik Morales (twice), Amir Khan, and Lucas Matthysse. Garcia was a +500 underdog in his 2012 title unification bout vs. Khan, who he knocked down 3 times en route to a 4th round TKO victory and was as high as a +250 underdog vs. feared power puncher Matthysse, who he scored a knockdown against en route to a clear but competitive unanimous decision victory in the co-main event of the Mayweather/Canelo card in 2013. Garcia actually enters Saturday's fight as a smaller underdog (+200) than he was vs. either Khan or Matthysse.

Despite only having 19 KOs in 33 fights (57.6 KO%), Garcia's punching power is dangerous and very underrated. Garcia has knocked down 8 of his last 11 opponents over the past 5 years, knocking them down  a total of 11 times in that span. Garcia's knockdowns often come courtesy of his left hook, which is by far his best punch and is considered by many to be one of the best left hooks - if not the best left hook - in the sport.

Garcia is a very effective, savvy counter puncher with pretty good hand speed and very good timing on his punches; so if he can land the right counters vs. Thurman's at-times reckless attack (in particular to the body where Thurman was badly hurt and nearly took a knee in his July 2015 fight vs. Luis Collazo) then Thurman could be in for a much tougher night than expected. Thurman was solid defensively in his last fight vs. Porter but in the past has occasionally shown a lack of discipline defensively, dropping his hands in inopportune spots which has left him exposed to clean counter punching (most notably vs. Diego Chaves and Jesus Soto Karass).

Garcia has a reputation for having one of the best chins in boxing (having never been knocked down or knocked out in his professional career), so at times may be able to risk trading shots with Thurman when he's in range - a scenario where you'd likely have to favor Garcia's chin over Thurman's despite Thurman's probable advantage in punching power.  

This fight is taking place in New York City, where the crowd is expected to be largely pro-Garcia. Garcia is of Puerto Rican descent (both of his parents are from Puerto Rico) and New York City is well-known for its large Puerto Rican population, with nearly a quarter of Puerto Ricans (over 1.2 million) in the United States living in the New York City metropolitan area. Garcia himself is originally from Philadelphia, which is less than a two hour drive from New York City; he is expected to have a large contingent of hometown supporters in the crowd Saturday night for the biggest fight of his career to date.

Garcia is a seemingly unflappable fighter who has risen to the occasion every time he's entered the ring as an underdog, not only winning but winning decisively - most recently vs. Matthysse on a huge stage in Las Vegas in the co-main event of what at the time became the highest grossing pay-per-view fight in boxing history (Mayweather vs. Canelo) - so you can never count him out.

Prefight Analysis

I like Keith Thurman to win this fight - probably by clear decision but possibly even by late stoppage. Thurman in my opinion has too many advantages in this fight for Garcia to overcome - size, foot speed, experience at welterweight, punching power, and boxing IQ. Considering the total package of skills Thurman brings to the fight and Garcia's relative inexperience at welterweight, this might be by far the toughest opponent Garcia has faced in his career.  

Garcia is a very solid fighter who - at least on paper - has some legitimately impressive wins as an underdog. But in taking a closer look at some of his fights vs. top-level opponents how impressive were those really? Garcia was getting decisively outboxed by Amir Khan but was able to get an early round TKO/KO victory against a fighter many consider to have the weakest chin of any top-level boxer in the modern era of boxing. Earlier in his career, Khan suffered a 1st round KO loss vs. 9-1 underdog Breidis Prescott, who went on to lose 4 of his next 7 fights after upsetting Khan.


Lucas Matthysse was one of the most feared power punchers in the sport at the time Garcia beat him, but has since proven to be somewhat overrated. After fighing Garcia, Matthysse was in a (surprisingly) highly competitive, fight of the year candidate vs. a B-level journeyman in John Molina Jr. who has lost 3 of his last 5 fights since facing Matthysse. And Matthysse lost by KO in his most recent fight vs. Viktor Postol, a top-level fighter but not a fighter known for his punching power. (Postol has only won 12 of this 29 career fights - 41% - by TKO/KO). Note that Matthysse has also never won a full world title belt and, with the exception of a 3rd round TKO/KO victory vs. Lamont Peterson, has lost to every top-level fighter he has faced - most notably Devon Alexander and rvrn a past prime Zab Judah.  

After fighting Matthysse, Garcia fought 9-1 underdog Mauricio Herrera in his family's homeland of Puerto Rico. Most who watched the fight felt Herrera beat Garcia, including the majority of the Puerto Rican crowd who largely booed the majority decision score for Garcia.

The following year, Lamont Peterson outboxed and dominated Garcia in the 2nd half of their fight in a controversial majority-decision loss, but probably came in to the fight with the wrong game plan by waiting to long to become the aggressor.

All other notable opposition Garcia has fought in recent years - Robert Guerrero, Paulie Malignaggi, and Erik Morales - were well past their prime (aged 32, 34, and 35 respectively) and years removed from being world title belt holders at the time they fought Garcia.

Garcia is a flat-footed, relatively low-volume fighter; I think Thurman is smart and skilled enough to exploit this by boxing Garcia from distance and using enough reach as to where Garcia's counter punching will be largely ineffective. Garcia's chances lie - as they did in his upset victory vs. Khan - primarily in his ability to time Thurman and land big punches but I don't see Thurman allowing Garcia to throw enough counters within range to pose a serious threat; I expect Thurman to mostly either stay out of Garcia's punching range or stay close enough inside to use his size advantage to smother Garcia's punches.

Thurman has the quicker hands, superior jab, and better foot movement so should be able to control the pace of the fight while Garcia waits for opportunities to counter. If Thurman controls the pace as I expect, I don't see any outcome other than a 9-3/8-4 type decision for Thurman (or even a late stoppage if Garcia is unable to handle Thurman's combination of movement and power). I strongly favor Thurman - and his array of advantages over Garcia - in this matchup.

In terms of betting, taking Thurman to win at any odds -230 or better suffices; but given Garcia's excellent chin I think one should strongly consider placing 25-50% of the wager on this fight on Thurman by 12 round decision (currently at +130). Other than a lucky punch, I don't see Garcia - as skilled and underrated as I think he is - having the movement or punch output over 12 rounds to outbox a guy with the physical tools, savvy, and skill of Thurman,- who I think was in much tougher in his previous fight vs. Shawn Porter (and passed that test with flying colors).

Prediction: Thurman to win

Recommended bets: 
1) Thurman to win (.75 unit)
2) Thurman by 12 round decision (.25 unit)

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Pedraza vs. Davis: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Jose Pedraza (22-0, 12 KOs) vs. Gervonta Davis (16-0, 15 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: January 14, 2017
Weight class: Super Featherweight (130 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF Super Featherweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Pedraza -115, Davis -105 (5 Dimes, 1/14/17)
Purse: Pedraza: $225,000, Davis: $75,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pedraza: #6-ranked super featherweight; Davis: Not ranked
Style: Pedraza: Orthodox, Davis: Southpaw
Referee: Ricky Gonzalez

Why you should watch this fight

Gervonta Davis is one of the most hyped prospects in boxing - and the most hyped prospect Floyd Mayweather has ever promoted. Davis is an electric, crowd-pleasing fighter who many say resembles a smaller version of Mike Tyson with his combination of blazing hand speed and vicious KO power in both hands. (Davis has won all 16 of the fights in his professional career by TKO/KO with the exception of one fight where the opponent barely got through the full 6 rounds after being knocked down twice.)

But the undefeated Davis has been relatively untested in his career thus far and is taking a *huge* step up in levels to fight a more experienced, also undefeated world champion in the prime of his career in Jose Pedraza. The intrigue in this fight will be to see whether Davis's skills and talent match his hype and if he can overcome his relative lack of experience to become - at only 22 years old - the first world champion from Baltimore since Hasim Rahman in 2001 (who became world champion after a stunning 5th round KO upset victory as a 20-1 underdog over Lennox Lewis).

Why Jose Pedraza will win

At 22-0, Jose Pedraza is undefeated and the current IBF super featherweight champion. At 27 years old, Pedraza is also in the prime of his career making his third title defense vs. an inexperienced 22-year old kid who has never fought in a title fight before. Pedraza doesn’t have Gervonta’s speed or power but he is the decidedly more skilled and experienced fighter in this matchup. Pedraza has fought (and beaten) tough, top 20 competition within the super featherweight division like Stephen Smith and Edner Cherry in his two most recent fights, as well as a now highly thought of contender in Tevin Farmer who – like Gervonta – was an inexperienced prospect at the time he fought Pedraza. (Pedraza beat Farmer by late round TKO.) By comparison, Gervonta has yet to even fight a top 100 fighter within his division. Davis’s toughest opponent was arguably Cristobal Cruz, a 39-year old fighter who won the IBF featherweight title in 2008 but has lost 9 of his last 12 fights since 2010. (Davis beat Cruz by 3^rd round TKO in October 2015.)

A native Puerto Rican, Pedraza represented Puerto Rico in the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing and has much more international experience than Davis - which suggests he’s been exposed to and can adjust accordingly to a larger variety of boxing styles.

Pedraza isn’t an undefeated world champion for no reason. He has very quick hands and is a crafty puncher who attacks both the body and head very well with punches often thrown from unorthodox angles. Pedraza moves his feet well and has a 1.5” reach advantage vs. Davis, which he will likely use to try and keep Davis out of punching range. Pedraza is a versatile fighter who – like James DeGale in tonight’s main event – is virtually ambidextrous and can fight from either a southpaw or orthodox stance.

A big concern with Gervonta may be his focus and how much the fame, money, and attention he’s garnered in the process of quickly becoming Floyd’s most hyped prospect to date in his promotional career has gotten to his head. A little over a year after signing with Floyd, Davis – who has yet to accomplish anything of note in his professional career - already has his own website, official fan club, and frequently flaunts his cash and jewelry on social media. There has also been some reported friction between Davis and Mayweather centered around Davis’s reluctance (despite Floyd’s insistence) to move to Las Vegas and train there full time.  Davis on multiple occasions has expressed frustration with Mayweather on social media as the friction between the two apparently led to Mayweather holding Davis inactive in what currently has been the longest layoff of Davis’s professional career (7 months). 

Another point about Davis is that – unlike Floyd and the vast majority of top-level boxers in the sport – Davis (by his own admission on Twitter last year) “doesn’t watch boxing.” Davis is obviously very talented, but you have to question how far a fighter can make it at the world-class level without being a student of the game.

Pedraza is without question the best fighter Davis has fought in his career; he has the skills, experience, and savvy to decisively outbox Davis in every round, if not stop him late. Davis expends a lot of energy in early rounds trying to score knockdowns; in his professional career he’s never gone past 9 rounds. Davis is primarily a head hunter who doesn’t look to wear his opponents down with body shots (and Pedraza is likely fully aware of this). If Pedraza can get past the early rounds you have to (perhaps strongly) favor Pedraza’s versatile and more proven boxing skills.  

Why Gervonta Davis will win

A little over a year now since first signing with Mayweather Promotions, it didn’t take long for Davis to become Mayweather’s most hyped and featured young prospect. 22-year old Gervonta Davis is undefeated (16-0), having beaten all of his opponents with the exception of one by TKO or KO. (As noted earlier that one opponent who lasted did get knocked down twice by Davis in a 6 round fight.) Davis is a highly aggressive, fast-attacking fighter with a somewhat rare combination of impressive power in both hands and very good hand speed (as noted above there is a resemblance to a young Mike Tyson in this regard). Gervonta’s best punch is probably his left uppercut – the punch he’s had by far the most success scoring knockdowns with. Good practice or not, Gervonta generally doesn’t waste a lot of time employing a jab or setting his opponent up with feeler shots; most of Gervonta’s punches are heavy-handed power punches capable of sending his opponent to the canvas. While Gervonta likes to attack fast he has also shown on numerous occasions a patient aggressiveness, willing to wait for spots that minimize his exposure to counters (which is a promising quality for any young prospect whose  game is based largely on aggressiveness and punching power).

Davis has clear advantages in raw athleticism, speed, and power in this matchup – advantages which could overwhelm even someone of Pedraza’s skill and experience. Pedraza is prone to dropping his hands during exchanges and has never in his professional career faced an opponent with Gervonta’s power; don’t be too surprised if this matchup ends up being quick and easy work for the young challenger.

Davis is an ambitious, highly determined fighter seeking to become the first world champion in boxing from Baltimore since 2001 (Hasim Rahman). NYC has a strong (and loud) Puerto Rican fan base who will show up to support Pedraza (who is from Puerto Rico and is the only current world champion from the island) but Davis should hold his own in terms of crowd support with the droves of fans, friends, and family from nearby Baltimore expected to come up to NYC to support the hometown star’s attempt to bring a world title back to the city.

Davis lacks experience against top competition in his professional career but does have a solid amateur pedigree. Davis was the 2012 National Golden Gloves champion at 132 lb., won three consecutive National Silver Gloves championships from 2006-2008, and has won a few other notable national titles in his amateur career.

Gervonta opened as a 3-2 betting underdog to win this fight but the betting line has moved so much in his favor within recent weeks that he is now nearly even money odds (as low as -105 at some books) to win the fight, reflecting the fact that the vast majority of the betting public’s money has been placed on Davis to win. Honestly, it’s not often that you see a betting line move that much in favor of a boxer this close to the fight date and that boxer doesn’t end up winning the fight.

Davis is the more athletic, speedier boxer with knockout power behind seemingly every punch while Pedraza – though a very solid boxer who’s undefeated and considered one of the best in the world at super featherweight – is far from an elite technician and is considered vulnerable in this matchup even by many of those picking him to win. Over the course of 12 rounds, Davis could potentially only need to land one really good punch to change the course of the fight and get the stoppage; it may just be a matter of whether Davis can catch up to Pedraza within 12 rounds – the disparity in athleticism and speed between the two fighters suggests that Davis probably could.

Prefight Analysis

Gervonta Davis is a very talented fighter with impressive speed and power and is capable of stopping Pedraza at any point during this title fight. But I think the disparity in skill and experience (in particular the experience gap) between Pedraza and Davis far outweighs the athletic and physical advantages Davis has over Pedraza and will result in a clear victory for the champion Pedraza.

As a Baltimore native I am rooting for Gervonta but strongly feel he might be in over his head taking a title fight this early in his career against a legitimate top 5 super featherweight in the world given that he's yet to even face a top 100 fighter in his division and had not yet in his career been put up against a fighter who was thought to be any kind of threat to his perfect record going into the fight. Given Gervonta's lack of experience I think it's borderline irresponsible for Mayweather (and Gervonta's manager Al Haymon) to put him against this level of competition at this point in his career; even amongst the most talented of prospects its extremely rare to increase the level of opposition for a prospect this significantly without gradually building up the prospect first.

After only eight professional fights, fellow super featherweight Vasyl Lomachenko is already considered by some to be the best fighter pound-for-pound in the sport and is well on his way to a hall-of-fame career. But even Lomachenko lost the 2nd fight of his career - a world title fight vs. veteran Orlando Salido - due in large part to lack of experience and being put in tough too early in his career; I see the same happening to Davis in tonight's fight.

While not as quick or athletic as Davis, Pedraza has good quickness and athleticism in his own right and is skilled enough to outbox Davis from range and outpoint him decisively, if not stop him outright if the disparity in skill is greater than expected. I strongly favor Pedraza's skill and experience in this fight and think Davis's only chance will be to overwhelm the at times defensively irresponsible Pedraza early with power and catch him with a good power punch to earn the stoppage.
With this said, Davis's power is very real and he's capable of stopping Pedraza at any point during the fight; if the odds for Gervonta by stoppage are good enough I'd strongly consider hedging a bet of Pedraza to win with a wager on Gervonta to win by TKO/KO. (I personally have not made this hedge as I don't feel the odds are sufficient enough.)

Prediction: Pedraza to win

Recommended bet: 1) Pedraza to win (1.5 units)

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DeGale vs. Jack: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: James DeGale (23-1, 14 KOs) vs. Badou Jack (20-1-2, 12 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: January 14, 2017
Weight class: Super Middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC and  IBF Super Middleweight titles
TV: Showtime
Line: DeGale -242, Jack +247 (5 Dimes, 1/12/17)
Purse: DeGale: $750,000, Jack: $700,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: DeGale: #1-ranked super middleweight; Jack: #2-ranked super middleweight
Style: DeGale: Southpaw, Jack: Orthodox
Referee: Arthur Mercante Jr.

Why you should watch this fight

This is a unification title fight between two current world champions in James DeGale and Badou Jack whom most would consider, at this moment, the top two super middleweight boxers in the world. The winner of this fight will be the unified WBC and IBF super middleweight champion and be considered the top boxer in the world at 168 lbs. 

DeGale vs. Jack is the first major boxing card of 2017 and - outside of Floyd Mayweather's own fights - is the most high profile card Mayweather Promotions has ever done the lead promotion on.

Whoever wins this fight will have earned the biggest win of his professional career. If the favored DeGale - a British former Olympic gold medalist - wins this fight, it will strengthen his claim as one of the elite, top 10 pound-for-pound boxers in the sport that many consider him to be.

Why James DeGale will win

DeGale is the current IBF super middleweight champion of the world and is widely considered to be one of the top 10-15 pound-for-pound boxers in the sport.

DeGale had a distinguished amateur boxing career, winning the Olympic gold medal as a middleweight at the 2008 Beijing Olympics for the United Kingdom. As a pro, he's suffered only one loss - a highly controversial majority decision loss to the then undefeated George Groves. (A slight majority to this day feel DeGale won that fight.)

DeGale is a solid (-242) favorite coming into this fight for numerous reasons. Although not a name known to most casual boxing fans, DeGale is widely considered by boxing purists to be one of the more skilled boxers in the sport given his high boxing IQ and versatile fighting style. DeGale's ability to throw punches from unorthodox angles combined with very good hand speed and accuracy makes it very difficult for opponents to anticipate and cleanly block his punches. DeGale's almost ambidextrous ability to switch between southpaw and orthodox stances - even whilst in the middle of throwing combinations - makes it doubly difficult for opponents to prepare for and defend against his attack.

DeGale is also considered by many to be one of the best  (some might even say the best) inside fighters  in the sport with his instinctive ability to both land and defend against punches inside. DeGale, who has a career KO percentage of 58%, is not known as a big puncher but is adept at wearing his opponents down over several rounds with clean, tough-to-anticipate power punches.

I would anticipate DeGale having success landing vs. the slower, somewhat predictable Jack - a come-forward, pressure fighter who will be right in front of DeGale for most of the fight. Like Terence Crawford, DeGale has the ability to fight from either stance and (as many elite fighters are) is adept at adjusting to his opponent's tendencies over the course of a fight. DeGale can fight coming forward but, with his excellent footwork, is as good or better as a counter puncher fighting off his back foot - a style he will likely have to employ for large stretches of the fight vs. the pressure style of Jack. On his best nights DeGale is a master technician and is more mobile, quicker, and has a more varied set of skills than Jack; if he is on his game one would expect DeGale to outbox Jack both from distance and from the inside.

Although he has seemingly chosen to stand in and exchange more in recent fights, DeGale can be very elusive defensively with his movement and has never been knocked down (or even been in danger of being knocked down for that matter) or stopped as a pro. Jack is aggressive and a highly effective body puncher, but doesn't appear to have the knockout power or speed to pose as a serious knockout threat for DeGale.

DeGale is from the United Kingdom (London) but has not fought in the UK in over two years. (Saturday's fight vs. Jack will be DeGale's fourth consecutive fight outside the UK.) DeGale won, then defended his super middleweight title twice outside of the UK - establishing a reputation as a road warrior who thrives fighting away from home. DeGale didn't look particularly impressive in his last fight, a highly competitive unanimous decision victory vs. an opponent in Rogelio Medina who wasn't expected to be a serious threat - but it seemed DeGale overlooked Medina in anticipation of the already informally-agreed to fight vs. Jack (DeGale admitted as much in post-fight interviews). I would expect DeGale to be much more prepared, train harder, and look significantly sharper for what would be the biggest win of his professional career.

 DeGale has a somewhat flashy, crowd-pleasing fight style that's a bit easier to score points for than the boringly basic, predictable style of Jack. (While unfair, Jack's inability to make an impression on the judges with his effective, yet basic boxing is probably at least part of the reason his last fight with Lucian Bute was scored a draw despite most feeling he won the fight decisively.) In the event of a close fight, I wouldn't be surprised if DeGale's flashier style and more engaging ring presence carries more favor with the judges in terms of scoring the closer rounds.

If DeGale is on his game and fully prepared for this fight it's tough to envision any outcome other than a clear victory for the British boxer, whether by a comfortable decision or by stoppage. DeGale is elite in terms of his talent and overall skills, and is the quicker, faster, seemingly more intelligent boxer; one would expect these advantages to manifest themselves into a likely win for DeGale during Saturday's fight.

Why Badou Jack will win

Like DeGale, Jack is a current (WBC) super middleweight champion who has defended his title twice over the past year. Also like DeGale, Jack has just one loss on his record - a first round TKO loss nearly three years ago to journeyman Derek Edwards - though this loss appears to have been somewhat of a fluke (i.e., the result of a lucky punch landed by Edwards) given Jack's strong performances since then.

Jack seems to be fighting with a high level of confidence in what have been the best performances of his career in some of his recent fights. As a 4-1 underdog in April 2015, Jack won the WBC super middleweight championship with a solid majority decision victory over the then undefeated Anthony Dirrell. A few months later he put up another surprisingly impressive performance as a 3-2 underdog in a split decision victory vs. George Groves, a talented fighter who handed DeGale his only loss as a professional. And in Jack's most recent fight last April, he outboxed former longtime super middleweight champion Lucian Bute in a fight that was very controversially scored a majority draw. (The overwhelming majority of those who watched this fight felt Jack clearly won; it's also worth noting Bute tested positive for a banned substance shortly after the fight.) Jack has proven himself to be a hardworking overachiever in these recent fights; it would not at all be surprising if he outperforms expectations again on Saturday night - especially against an at-times lazy fighter in DeGale who is notorious for taking stretches of fights off (possibly due to issues with stamina).

Jack is a solid, well-rounded (think "jack of all trades, master of none") pressure fighter with decent power and above average mobility. He pops a good jab and counters well with hooks - which could be effective vs. DeGale in spots as DeGale has (perhaps by choice) not been as elusive in recent fights as he had earlier in his career, seemingly choosing at times to trade punches with his opponents from close range and against the ropes. DeGale also has a bad habit of keeping his hands down which may provide Jack with more opportunity for clean counters.

Jack's best asset may be his body punching, which was particularly effective in his two most recent fights vs. Bute and Groves. A durable fighter, Jack is certainly capable of wearing DeGale down with body punches in the middle to late rounds, where DeGale is more prone to getting outworked given his tendency to decrease his punch output during stretches of the latter stages of fights. One should not be surprised if the typically pressuring Jack outworks DeGale late in the championship rounds of this fight.

DeGale's performances in his last two fights since winning the IBF super middleweight title can best be described as mediocre; if DeGale is as lackluster in Saturday's fight vs. Jack as he was vs. Medina and Bute, I'd grade this matchup as at worst a 50/50 fight in favor of the underdog Jack.

While his connection to Mayweather didn't help him in his controversial draw this past April with Bute, Jack is the more "politically connected" fighter in this matchup as he is being promoted by Floyd's Mayweather Promotions firm in what is the most high profile card Mayweather Promotions has served as lead promoter for (other than Floyd Mayweather's own fights of course). This unification title fight is the biggest non-Mayweather fight Floyd has ever promoted and Jack is arguably the best fighter in Mayweather's camp; it would not be unreasonable to think that a close fight *could* get judged with bias in favor of Mayweather's fighter over the fighter from the United Kingdom.

DeGale is widely considered an elite, A-level talent but he's been inconsistent in recent fights and has a habit of fighting down to the level of his opponent. Jack is probably not quite as talented or skilled as DeGale but he is a world-class, top 2 super middleweight fighter in his own right and has arguably performed better than DeGale in recent fights, showing better stamina and putting forth a more consistent effort vs. comparable competition to what DeGale has faced in recent years. If DeGale does not improve from how he's performed over the past couple of fights, one should expect this to be a close, competitive fight in which Jack could very easily pull off the upset.

Prefight Analysis

It wouldn't be completely surprising if Jack wins this fight. He's a well-rounded, top-level fighter who's boxed well in recent fights. Since his career-hindering TKO loss to Edwards nearly three years ago he's bounced back  with impressive performances as an underdog to win a major world title and earn consideration as possibly the best super middleweight in the world. DeGale on the other hand, has looked shaky at times in his recent fights with Medina and Bute and appears more likely than Jack to perform below expectations.

The fact is Jack is an underrated, hardworking fighter who absolutely is capable of outworking and wearing down DeGale, who has a reputation for getting lazy during the middle and late rounds of fights. Jack is a very effective body puncher and DeGale - as he's done in recent fights - may elect to  stand within punching range and exchange with Jack, which could be to his detriment as the fight gets into the later rounds. At nearly 3.5-1 odds, there may be some value in taking Jack to win by 12 round decision.

But as solid as Jack is I do feel at the end of the day that DeGale - when on his game - is a level above Jack in terms of talent and overall skill and that this disparity will end up being the difference in the fight. DeGale's ability to switch stances and give different looks combined with his unorthodox punching style, hand speed advantage, and ability to box on the move will result in DeGale having consistent success landing clean power punches compared to Jack's straightforward, somewhat predictable approach which DeGale will likely have an easier time defending against.

I do feel DeGale has competed down to the level of his opponents in some of his recent fights but will rise to the occasion to perform well in a unification title fight that would be the biggest win of his career.

In terms of what the fight judges will see on the surface, DeGale has a flashier, more crowd-pleasing style and is much more adept at playing to the crowd than the mild-mannered, no frills Jack. (In a fight with a clash of styles such as these this could end up being a deciding factor.)

DeGale is one of the top pound-for-pound boxers in the sport and is a hall-of-fame caliber talent; I expect his special talent to be on full display Saturday night at Barclays Center en route to a competitive but clear decision, if not a late stoppage.

Prediction: DeGale to win

Recommended bet: 1) DeGale to win (1 unit)

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