Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (48-1-1 34 KOs) vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (50-2-1, 32 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 6, 2017
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs - though fight is being fought at a catchweight of 164.5 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez: -545, Chavez: +465 (
5 Dimes, 5/6/17)
Purse: Alvarez: $5 million, Chavez: $3 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #8 ranked pound-for-pound/
Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Chavez: Not ranked
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Chavez: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless
Why you should watch this fight
This fight might be the most anticipated (and most hyped) matchup between two Mexican boxers in the history of the sport - it's certainly is the most anticipated matchup between two boxers of Mexican heritage since the first Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. vs. Oscar De La Hoya fight back in 1996.
Canelo - considered by many one of the best pound-for-pound boxers in the sport - is currently the most popular boxer in Mexico (not to mention probably the top PPV attraction in all of boxing right now) and attracts Superbowl-like ratings in his home country every time he fights. (Most notably his 2013 fight vs. Floyd Mayweather, which we received the highest rating for a boxing event in the history of Mexican television with nearly 80 percent of televisions in Mexico tuned in to see the fight.) Chavez is the son (and namesake) of the most - never mind boxer -
athlete in the history of Mexico in Julio Cesar Chavez Sr., a former six-time world champion in three weight classes who is considered by most to be the greatest Mexican boxer of all time. On name alone, Chavez has been a wildly popular boxer in his home country and is still one of the biggest draws in boxing even today - despite not looking particularly impressive in recent fights.
A few years ago this fight could've potentially been promoted as a mega fight but as it stands now the fight is still one of the top 3 or 4 fights between active boxers that could've been made in terms of expected revenue generation.
At -545, Canelo is the strong favorite, but the 164.5 catchweight in this fight nearly 10 pounds higher than any weight limit he's fought at previously. If Canelo wins this fight at this higher weight -particularly if he wins convincingly - the fight that looms more than ever before would be the highly anticipated matchup with middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin. (There would be zero excuses for avoiding a matchup with Golovkin at 160 lbs after defeating Chavez at 164.5 lbs - though the fight may be more appealing to Canelo at this point anyway given Golovkin's troubles in his narrow victory last March vs. Danny Jacobs.)
But if Chavez, whose reputation amongst Mexican and non-Mexican boxing fans alike has diminished considerably due to lackluster performances in recent years (which included a stoppage loss to Andrzej Fonfara in 2015
in which Chavez quit in the 9th round shortly after getting knocked down) and his perceived lack of work ethic, pulls off the upset his tarnished reputation would largely be redeemed and his popularity would receive an enormous boost - likely setting up big PPV fights for him in the near future.
This also happens to be a fight between the only two Mexican-born fighters to have won middleweight world championships. There is a genuine dislike between the two Mexican opponents so this is a fight both will desperately be trying to win - not only for the legacy achieved in winning what is arguably the biggest fight in the history of Mexican boxing but for the satisfaction of one-upping the other in what has become a very bitter and personal rivalry.
Why Canelo Alvarez will win
Despite this fight being contested at a 164.5-lb catchweight, Canelo is actually the current WBO light middleweight (154 lbs) champion and is widely considered one of the best boxers pound-for-pound in the sport. Canelo has held world titles in two weight divisions (light middleweight and middleweight), including being a former unified light middleweight champion, as well as being the lineal and WBC middleweight champion in recent years before vacating the title. The only loss of Canelo's professional career came in 2013 vs. pound-for-pound legend Floyd Mayweather Jr., who is considered by most to be the best boxer of this generation.
Canelo is a solid favorite in this matchup vs. Chavez for a multitude of straightforward reasons. By observation of nearly everyone who follows the sport closely, Canelo is the more talented, more technically skilled, more accurate punching, and higher IQ boxer with faster hands, superior footwork, and better defensive abilities. Canelo is an elite A/A- level boxer in the prime of his career (and seemingly still improving a bit with each fight) facing a fighter in Chavez who, at 31 years old (4.5 years older than Canelo), appears to be past his prime and has never in his career even come close to proving he has the elite-level skills of his revered father.
Canelo has fought mostly at light middleweight (154 lbs) in recent years but he is a big light middleweight whose power should translate fine to the 164.5 catchweight. Although known as a big puncher (Canelo's won 3 out of his last for fights by KO and has a career KO% of 68%), Canelo is an intelligent, patient boxer who - per CompuBox statistics - is one of the most efficient fighters in the sport. Canelo sets up and throws combination punches very well and is an excellent body puncher - one shouldn't be at all surprised if the largely flat-footed, defensively suspect Chavez presents a fairly easy target for Canelo's offensive attack for much of the fight. Note that Chavez's height (6'1") may prove to be a disadvantage in this fight as it will likely provide the 5'9" Canelo a larger body frame to target, particularly when fighting inside. (Shorter fighters also often have easier angles from which to attack the body when facing taller fighters, who may find it awkward to have to punch down to target their shorter opponent.)
Despite being widely criticized for possibly avoiding a potential fight with feared power puncher Gennady Golovkin (which included being ridiculed by some of his own Mexican fanbase), Canelo has - at just 26 years of age - amassed one of the more impressive resumes in boxing, having fought (and beaten) elite and/or high profile former world champions such as Amir Khan, Miguel Cotto, Erislandy Lara, Shane Mosley, and Austin Trout. (This is in addition to fighting undefeated and pound-for-pound #1 Floyd Mayweather when he was only 23 years old.) Chavez's resume is sketchy in comparison, with his only fight vs. an A-level opponent coming in his September 2012 unanimous decision loss to Sergio Martinez, a fight which was not competitive (and which he arguably lost every round) until the 12th round
when he knocked down and nearly stopped Martinez. Chavez's best win came immediately prior to the Martinez fight in a TKO victory vs. Andy Lee, a B-level fighter with good power, but whose skills aren't on the same level as Canelo's. (It should be noted that Chavez was losing the fight to Lee on all three judges' scorecards at the time of the stoppage.)
Chavez is the bigger, more physically imposing fighter who has experience fighting at a weight limit exceeding 170 lbs in the light heavyweight division but he has a plodding, relatively straightforward fighting style that likely won't be difficult for Canelo to anticipate; Canelo's defensive footwork and upper body movement are deceptively slick and have improved significantly since the early stages of his career.
As a big light middleweight, Canelo is expected to adjust to the 164.5 catchweight just fine; Chavez, who has a well documented history of failing to make weight at limits as high as 168 lbs, may experience weight-drain issues which may significantly affect his performance Saturday night.
Saturday's fight, considered one of the biggest in the history of Mexican boxing, will take place on Cinco de Mayo weekend in a sold out T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas in front of mostly Mexican-American and Mexican fans. Although Chavez Jr. is still a very popular Mexican boxer, the crowd is expected to be largely pro-Canelo, which could influence the fight inside the ring as well as the judges' scoring outside the ring. Judges' scorecards in Canelo fights have tended to strongly favor Canelo - even in fights considered close by the general public. (See the scoring in Canelo's recent competitive fights vs. Cotto, Lara, and Austin Trout as examples.) Even
in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw; so if this fight ends up being much more competitive than expected (which could happen if, for example, Canelo doesn't carry the extra weight as well as expected) don't be at all surprised to see the fight still scored comfortably for Canelo.
Why Julio Cesar Chavez will win
Chavez comes into tonight's fight as a significant (+465) underdog but there are solid reasons to believe he can be very competitive and perhaps pull off the upset vs. Canelo.
Chavez is the naturally bigger fighter and has (much) more experience at weights exceeding the 154 lb light middleweight limit than Canelo. (Chavez is expected to come into tonight's fight 15-20 lbs heavier than Canelo.) Chavez's size combined with his solid power could prove to be a bit much for the smaller Canelo, whose own power - which is amongst the best at 154 lbs - may not carry up to the 164.5 lb catchweight limit as well as most expect. This will be the first fight of Canelo's professional career above a 155 lb weight limit; given the nearly 10 pound jump in weight, Canelo's skill and hand speed advantages may not be able to overcome the size disparity, especially given that Canelo - who is a bit flat-footed - will have to fight toe-to-toe at close range vs. Chavez's inside pressure-fighting style for large stretches of the fight.
Chavez is an aggressive, come-forward fighter with good power at middleweight. Like his father, Chavez is a very good (and relentless) fighter on the inside, particularly to the body where left hooks and right uppercuts are his most effective punches. Despite the criticism of his work ethic outside of the ring, Chavez has a good work rate inside the ring and possesses good stamina, whereas Canelo is known for sometimes taking rounds off and tiring in the later rounds of fights. One has to wonder whether Canelo's power and skill will be effective at the higher weight or if the larger Chavez be able to wear him down in the later rounds behind a body attack from close range.
Chavez doesn't possess the all-time great talent or skills of his legendary father, but many underrate him as a fighter. Chavez is a former WBC middleweight champion who has beaten former middleweight champions such as Andy Lee, Marco Antonio Rubio, and Sebastian Zbik. Again, Chavez's most impressive victory was likely his 7th round TKO victory vs. Lee, who no one ould consider an elite fighter, but is currently rated a top 5 middleweight in the world by Ring Magazine and BoxRec.com. Chavez's only two losses of his professional career came in 2012 vs. then #3 pound-for-pound fighter Sergio Martinez and in 2015 vs. Andrzej Fonfara in a light heavyweight division fight that was two weight classes above his normal fighting weight.
Chavez's defense has been suspect but he may still have one of the better chins in boxing. Two years ago, Chavez suffered the only knockdown (and ensuing stoppage loss) of his career vs. Fonfara (a fighter with a non-impressive 50% TKO/KO percentage), but that was in his first and only fight at light heavyweight - two weight divisions above the middleweight division he has fought in for nearly his entire career. (Prior to this loss, Chavez's chin was considered to be one of the elite chins in boxing.) Canelo has excellent power at light middleweight but it remains to be seen how well that power carries up to the 164.5 catchweight for this fight; Chavez was stopped for the first time in his career vs. a light heavyweight in Fonfara but I expect his chin to hold up well vs. Canelo, who - despite the power and accuracy with which he throws punches - is a bit small relative to Fonfara,
Chavez is being trained in this fight by legendary trainer Nacho Beristain, a 2006 International Boxing Hall of Fame inductee who has trained 27 world champions, including Ricardo Lopez, Juan Manuel Marquez, Oscar De La Hoya, and Abner Mares. This is Chavez's first fight training under Beristain; it is expected that Beristain will be able to correct at least some of Chavez's technical flaws and concoct a game plan that has a chance of keeping Chavez competitive in the fight. Chavez is also using Memo Heredia as his strength and conditioning coach; Heredia is noted for assisting Juan Manuel Marquez and Jorge Arce in regaining world championship titles in their 30s (most notably Marquez after his 6th round KO of Manny Pacquiao in December 2012).
Overall, Canelo holds nearly all of the advantages related to skill and athleticism, but Chavez is the bigger fighter (in terms of not only size but 5" height advantage and 3" reach advantage) who at his best is very effective at wearing smaller opponents down with pressure and a relentless body attack. Canelo is almost certainly the superior boxer pound-for-pound but the nearly 10-pound jump in weight for this fight might be Canelo biting off a bit more than he can chew.
Prefight Analysis
I think Chavez has a better chance at winning this fight than most think. Canelo is big in size for the light middleweight division he's fought in for most of his career but the nearly 10 lb jump in weight for this fight (which effectively amounts to a one and a half weight class jump) to fight at 164.5 pounds for the first time in his career vs. a tough fighter in Chavez - who has much more experience fighting in this weight range and may come into tonight's fight 15-20 pounds heavier than Canelo - is a daunting task.
Canelo is the more skilled fighter for sure, but he's been bigger and stronger than just about every opponent he's faced in his professional career. That won't be the case Saturday night vs. an opponent in Chavez who will come in several pounds heavier, have the clear height and reach advantage, and arguably has comparable power at the higher weight.
Chavez's size combined with a solid chin - along with what appears to be a renewed sense of work ethic and discipline for this huge fight (unlike many of his recent fights Chavez easily made weight for this fight and most reports indicate he's trained as hard as he's ever trained for a fight under new trainer Beristain) make him a tough nut to crack in this matchup. You'd have to question whether Canelo can effectively pressure a larger fighter with a good chin who will come into the fight as essentially a cruiserweight (i.e., is expected to come into the fight at between 180-190 lbs on fight night) - especially given Canelo's patient, relatively low-output style and tendency to slow down a bit in the later rounds.
It wouldn't be all that surprising to see a motivated Chavez - who really is fighting for his legacy and to salvage his tarnished reputation - wear down the smaller, somewhat flat-footed Canelo in the later rounds with an accumulation of body punches. Chavez has tended to have problems in previous fights with fighters who move well and box effectively on their feet - Canelo is a non-elusive fighter who will be right in front of Chavez for significant stretches of the fight.
But I think the skill and talent disparity between Canelo and Chavez is too great to pick Chavez here. Canelo is a legitimate elite pound-for-pound fighter in the prime of his career who, at 26 years old, is only getting better while Chavez is elite in name only and, at 31 years old, possibly has his best days behind him. Canelo's power may not be as effective as expected at the higher weight class but his hand speed, accuracy, and overall boxing skills are such that it would be very surprising if he didn't outbox and outpoint the slower, defensively-flawed Chavez. (I'd expect Chavez to essentially be target practice for an efficient power puncher like Canelo - especially in the early and middle rounds.
Chavez is the bigger fighter who is particularly effective at fighting inside, but I think Canelo's defense (which has improved throughout his career and seems to still be improving) vs. Chavez's slower, somewhat predictable attack will be good enough to largely mitigate Chavez's size advantage.
I see Canelo landing mostly at will and decisively outpointing Chavez in this fight - the only question is whether Canelo's power will be effective enough at the higher weight class to get the stoppage. Here, I do think Chavez's size advantage, sturdy chin, and strong desire not to embarrass himself in front of the hundreds of millions of Mexican fans who will be watching the fight - along with Canelo's tendency to tire in later rounds - will result in Chavez lasting the distance. Chavez has only been stopped once by a light heavyweight (Fonfara) in a fight he didn't appear prepared for; I don't think the middleweight-sized Canelo will get the stoppage here.
Given that I think there is a strong probability Chavez lasts the distance I think the best value on this fight is betting Canelo to win by 12-round decision, currently priced at +150 (or, preferably, Canelo to win by 12-round unanimous decision if you can find that bet). I see Chavez lasting the full 12 rounds but ultimately don't see his size advantage and ability to break down opponents inside overcoming Canelo's efficient punching and fairly significant advantages in skill, athleticism, and boxing IQ.
Either way I'll be at this fight and am looking forward to (what should be a super-electric) atmosphere almost as much as the fight itself!!!
Prediction: Canelo to win
Recommended bet:
Canelo by decision (1.5 units)
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