Ward vs. Kovalev: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Andre Ward (30-0, 15 KOs) vs. Sergey Kovalev (30-0-1, 26 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 19, 2016
Weight class: Light Heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA, IBF, and WBO Light Heavyweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Ward -165, Kovalev +155 (5 Dimes, 11/19/16)
Purse: Ward: $5 million, Kovalev: $2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Ward: #4 ranked pound-for-pound, #4 ranked light heavyweight; Kovalev: #2 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked light heavyweight
Style: Ward: Orthodox, Kovalev: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Why you should watch this fight

Neither fighter is very well known to sports fans who don't follow boxing closely, but to hardcore boxing fans this is without question the most anticipated fight of the year. This is only the third time in boxing history that two undefeated, Ring Magazine top five pound-for-pound boxers will face each other (other two times were Oscar De La Hoya vs. Felix Trinidad in 1999 and Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. vs. Meldrick Taylor in 1990). We have an Olympic gold medal-winning, master-class technician who hasn't lost a professional or amateur fight since he was 12 years old in Andre Ward moving up in weight to fight Sergey Kovalev, who along with Gennady "GGG" Golovkin is one of the two most feared power punchers in boxing with (very) underrated technical boxing skills and a cold-blooded killer instinct (after all, he has literally killed a man in the ring) to match potentially all-time great power.   

This is a classic matchup between a pure boxer in Ward - who many would say is one of the best boxers of this generation and could go down as one of the best boxers of all-time - vs. arguably the best power puncher in boxing in Kovalev. It is highly likely that the winner of this fight  between two future likely hall-of-famers will be widely considered the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport going forward.

Why Andre Ward will win

Although he's been relatively inactive over the past half decade (having fought an average of roughly once a year over this time period), Ward is still widely considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport (if not the best). He's an undefeated, master technician who hasn't lost a fight in his professional or amateur career since he was 12 years old. Ward went through an extended stretch in his career where the quality of his opposition was as tough as any other boxer (most notably Showtime's Super Six World Boxing Classic tournament where he faced the likes of former world champions Carl Froch, Mikkel Kessler, and Arthur Abraham in their primes) and still won all of those fights with ease by wide margins. If Ward retired today, he would go down as one of the great super middleweight boxers of all time.

Ward is a technically brilliant, extremely versatile boxer who fights superbly both inside and from distance. Especially on the inside, many would consider Ward the best in the sport; he is adept at using his unmatched combination of athleticism, strength, and ring intelligence to smother and wear opponents down from close distance. This may serve him very well vs. Kovalev, who has shown susceptibility to getting hit to the body from inside and has a tendency to drop his guard when getting hit in that area.

Ward is a highly accurate lead puncher and counterpuncher who also fights very well from range; Ward is adept at throwing well-timed jabs (particularly from his dominant left hand) and is effective from fighting from either an orthodox or southpaw stance.

Whether fighting from range or inside, Ward has excellent footwork which he's used along with his physical strength and superior skills to dominate the pace of every fight he's ever fought in as a pro. Even Jean Pascal and Isaac Chilemba had success in spots landing vs. a defensively mediocre Kovalev (who's head movement at times is nonexistent) so Ward - who has a clear speed advantage in this matchup -  should be able to consistently land cleanly and outbox Kovalev if he can withstand or otherwise mitigate Kovalev's punching power.

Ward is an instinctual, very high IQ fighter who appears to be on the level of a Floyd Mayweather or Bernard Hopkins in terms of ability to read and adjust to his opponent's boxing style. Kovalev is an underrated technician who a couple of years ago gave (a 49 year-old but still very crafty) Hopkins by far the worst defeat of his career but Ward is the more intelligent and savvy boxer in this matchup.

Ward is also an elusive, defensively gifted fighter - even on the inside where he has an uncanny ability to dodge and counter power punches from close range. If Ward can keep this fight on the inside (where Kovalev is somewhat unproven and will have less success getting adding leverage to his punches), one would have to strongly favor Ward over the course of 12 rounds.

Although Ward has been relatively inactive in recent years and suffered through multiple injuries (including a debilitating, career-threatening right shoulder injury), at 32 years old Ward is arguably still in his prime and is actually the younger fighter in the matchup vs. a 33 year-old Kovalev.

Ward is moving up in weight to fight one of the most feared power punchers in the sport but he does have a very respectable chin, having been knocked down only once in his professional career (vs. Darnell Boone in the 7th fight of his career when he was only 21 years old). 

Minus the ultra-quick reflexes, Ward is arguably Mayweather-level in terms of boxing skill, ring IQ, and athleticism; *if* he can withstand Kovalev's power (which is obviously a major if), it's extremely difficult to not envision him outboxing Kovalev - who looked unimpressive in his most recent fight vs. Chilemba - over 12 rounds.

Why Sergey Kovalev will win

Like Ward, Kovalev is also undefeated and is the unified WBA, IBF, and IBO light heavyweight champion of the world. Kovalev is widely considered - along with fellow Soviet Gennady Golovkin - one of the top two power punchers in boxing today. Kovalev is a devastating puncher with outstanding power in both hands (complimented with excellent balance allowing him to get full leverage on many of his punches) to the extent where he doesn't necessarily have to land cleanly for opponents to feel his power. Of Kovalev's 30 wins, 26 (86.7%) have come by TKO/KO. Kovalev is on course to go down as one of the better power punchers in the history of the sport; as skilled as Ward is (and he is considered by many the most skilled fighter in boxing today) just one clean power punch landed by Kovalev could easily change the course of the fight.

Although primarily known as a power puncher, Kovalev is an very underrated technician who has proven time and again he has the world class boxing skills to match his punching power. Kovalev is a stalking, yet patient fighter who doesn't waste punches. He is a very efficient, highly accurate puncher who throws both jabs and combinations well and has an excellent straight right hand. When punching, Kovalev uses angles well and is effective at throwing leaping lead hooks from distance, which makes him somewhat unpredictable in his offensive attack. Kovalev is also a brutal body puncher, one of the best in the sport; even a defensively gifted Ward may have trouble stopping some of those body punches from landing when fighting inside.

Ward is considered a master technician but Kovalev has already faced and thoroughly outboxed another master technician in Bernard Hopkins - knocking Hopkins down once (in the 1st round of their fight) and winning all 12 rounds on all three judges scorecards after Hopkins went into survival mode after the knockdown. Kovalev does not have quite the experience nor has he faced the quality of opposition Ward has but - in addition to Hopkins - in recent years he's faced top-level opposition in former world champions Jean Pascal (twice), Nathan Cleverly, Gabriel Campillo, and Chilemba; with the exception of Chilemba all were soundly defeated by TKO/KO.

A key advantage Kovalev has is that this fight is taking place in the light heavyweight (175 lbs) division, a division where Kovalev has fought nearly his entire career and been champion for over three years. Ward was big and physically strong for a super middleweight (168 lbs) but he's moving up to fight at 175 pounds for only the third time in his career - the previous two being somewhat unimpressive unanimous decision victories vs. journeymen Alexander Brand and Sullivan Barrera - to face a fighter in Kovalev who has been dominant at that weight class for several years. There are *huge* question marks as to how well Ward's noted physical, clinching tactics inside will fare vs. a bigger opponent at a higher weight class and how well his respectable (though certainly not as devastating as Kovalev's) power carries up to light heavyweight.

Although slightly younger than Kovalev, Ward has been relatively inactive in recent years (due to multiple injuries and legal battles) and has looked somewhat rusty in recent fights; at 32 years old it may very easily be the case that Ward may not be the same quality of fighter at this point in his career as he was a few years ago when he was considered the #2 boxer pound-for-pound behind only Floyd Mayweather. In one of Ward's most recent fights, Barrera did have some success landing power punches with his right hand. And while Ward is known to be outstanding defensively, he is susceptible at times to getting hit given his proclivity for fighting from close distance. If Ward truly has lost a step and looks as rusty as he has in recent fights at 175, one would have to think Kovalev's power has a good chance of getting the stoppage within a 12 round fight where Ward will likely put himself within punching distance for large stretches.

Kovalev is not only (by far) the best puncher Ward has faced in his career - a career in which Ward has been knocked down and in trouble before against a lesser puncher in a lower weight class - he is also the most skilled boxer Ward has ever faced. Many have claimed Kovalev can not outbox Ward over 12 rounds - which may be true from a purely technical standpoint - but with Kovalev's combination of overwhelming power and underrated technical skill, it would not be surprising to see him win this fight by stoppage or by clear decision.

Prefight Analysis

So this fight is as difficult as any fight I've tried to predict on multiple levels. One one level it's difficult to say which style will prevail tonight - the technically superior, more experienced, master class in Ward with the clear hand and foot speed advantage who hasn't even come close to losing a fight since he was a preteen - or the elite power punching and very underrated boxing skill of a similarly undefeated Kovalev, who is the current unified champion and is defending his titles within his natural weight class. On another level it's equally difficult to predict which version of each of these boxers will show up tonight. Despite winning easily, Ward hasn't looked particularly impressive in recent bouts vs. B-level opponents, while Kovalev was also unimpressive and looked frustrated in spots during his most recent fight vs. Chilemba. The outcome of this fight will of course largely depend on which of these fighters is closer to their "A" game Saturday night.

As many boxing pundits have pointed out, this is as close to a true 50/50 as it gets with the level of skill and clash of styles involved in this matchup. I'll admit that I'm personally rooting for Ward - a highly intelligent boxer with strong moral character who has always carried himself with class - to win this fight.  If this was prime, vintage Andre Ward and/or we were dealing with a weight-drained Kovalev fighting Ward at Ward's usual 168-lb weight (a la a weight-drained Chad Dawson in his 2012 fight with Ward), I'd (perhaps strongly) favor Ward's technical superiority, speed, and inside fighting ability over Kovalev's overwhelming power.

But there are three key reasons why I - despite personally rooting for Ward - very slightly favor Kovalev in this matchup:

1) This fight is taking place at light heavyweight (175 lbs), not at super middleweight (168 lbs). This fight is at Kovalev's natural weight class - a weight class Ward moved up to just this year and has looked less than impressive in vs. forgettable opposition. This is only Ward's 3rd fight at 175 lbs, a weight class Kovalev has dominated for several years. I have doubts as to whether Ward will be able to impose his physical will - which he does so easily at 168 lbs - inside vs. a stronger, deadly power puncher like Kovalev at 175. I think Ward will find that he's in for a different fight vs. an elite 175-pound fighter than he's used to vs. elite 168-pound fighters. At 175 lbs, there is a question of how he will be able to handle the power of a true light heavyweight power puncher (who happens to be one of the top two power punchers in boxing) and how well Ward's own power at 168 lbs carries up to 175 lbs. The extra weight may also slow Ward down a bit, making him less fleet of foot. Ward is a big super middleweight who may have been outgrowing the 168 lb weight class anyway but the fact that this fight is taking place at 175 lbs is a clear advantage for Kovalev.

2) Ward is more likely than Kovalev to be off his game. Neither fighter has looked especially impressive in recent fights so it's tough to predict which version of each fighter will show up tonight. But I think Kovalev is a bit more likely to bring his top-level game than Ward. Although Ward is actually slightly younger than Kovalev, Ward has been relatively inactive (having fought only four times in the past four years), endured multiple surgeries (some to alleviate potentially career-threatening injuries), and - judging by his recent fights this year - seems to have lost a step from the pound-for-pound #2 Ward that dominated the Super Six World Boxing Classic tournament a few years ago. It's possible that this is simply Ward shaking off rust from inactivity, but it's also possible that this 32-year old version of Ward - after all the injuries and multiple extended layoffs - just isn't quite the fighter he used to be in his mid-twenties. If Ward is no longer the same A+-level performer we've come to expect from the Super Six World Boxing Classic fights and from his fight with Chad Dawson, then Kovalev certainly has a much greater chance of pulling off an upset at a weight class Ward still appears to be getting accustomed to.

3) Ward will likely stay within range of Kovalev's power for significant stretches of the fight. Ward has a very respectable chin (having been knocked down only once in his professional career) but Kovalev is by far the most effective power puncher he's faced in his career with significantly more power than he's used to facing at 168 lbs. Ward likes to fight from close range inside - which often works to smother an opponent's punches and mitigate power  - but the close range will nevertheless give Kovalev ample opportunity to setup his (usually lethal) offensive attack to the body and head. All it would take is one clean punch from Kovalev over the course of 12 rounds to change the fight; if Ward stays within punching range as expected I believe Kovalev will be effective enough to land multiple shots and at times overwhelm Ward with his power.

Even at this stage of his career Ward is such a gifted, crafty fighter that it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he ended up heavily frustrating Kovalev with elusiveness and skill and won every round of the fight. Ward is, in my opinion, a historically great talent who certainly has the ability to outbox Kovalev. But I believe this version of Ward isn't quite the same Ward we remember from a few years ago and that Kovalev - who possesses high-level technical skills in his own right (skills that are being overlooked and underrated by many) - will catch and overwhelm Ward with his power at this weight class.

The question if Kovalev wins this fight is whether he wins by his customary stoppage or by decision. Kovalev's most recent fight vs. Chilemba -  a fighter in many ways similar in style to Ward - went the full 12 rounds. Kovalev's fight a couple of years ago vs. master boxing technician Hopkins also ended in a 12-round decision. Ward is certainly crafty and elusive enough to last 12 rounds (as Chilemba and Hopkins did) if he chooses; but - unlike Chilemba or Hopkins - I don't see Ward retreating and fighting off his back foot in this matchup. Ward has much more of a proclivity than those two fighters to attack inside and I think he will stick with that tactic - even at the risk of getting knocked out. (Kovalev's power is also greater from distance which I think will further encourage Ward to get past Kovalev's stiff jab and stay inside for stretches in an attempt to somewhat mitigate his power.) But I think Ward's close range tactics will provide ample opportunities for Kovalev to pepper Ward with power punches and get the stoppage.

At almost 2.5-1 odds, I think Kovalev by TKO/KO (+249) is the best bet for this fight. But given the unpredictability of this clash of styles and given Ward's technical superiority and still elite skills, I would hedge this bet with an equal amount of money on Ward by 12 round decision - which can still be found at approximately even money (+100) odds. Certainly looking forward to this fight!!!  

Prediction: Kovalev to win

Recommended bets: 1) Kovalev by TKO/KO (1 unit)
2) Ward by 12 round decision (1 unit)

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Pacquiao vs. Vargas: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Manny Pacquiao (58-6-2, 38 KOs) vs. Jessie Vargas (27-1, 10 KOs)
Location: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 5, 2016
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: Top Rank PPV
Line: Pacquiao -570, Vargas +480 (5 Dimes, 11/5/16)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao: not ranked (due to brief retirement), Vargas: #8 ranked welterweight
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Vargas: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

To see if the recently unretired and current Philippine Senator Manny Pacquiao can reclaim his previously perennial status atop the welterweight division (and as one of the elite boxers pound-for-pound) by beating current WBO welterweight champion Jessie Vargas... or if the younger, technically skilled, and highly confident Vargas can pull off the defining win of his career by defeating one of the great boxers in the history of the sport in his adopted hometown of Las Vegas (where he has lived and trained since he was a child).

Pacquiao is not quite the electrifying fighter he was in his prime but - based on his impressive unanimous decision victory last April vs. Timothy Bradley - he still has elite speed and very good power, which should provide for an entertaining matchup with the scrappy, former two-time Mexican national champion Vargas, who likes to fight inside and will likely be willing to trade power punches with Pacquiao.

Pacquiao spent over 600 weeks (over 12 years) in the Ring Magazine pound-for-pound top 10 rankings before dropping off earlier this year due to a brief retirement; a convincing win vs. Vargas will likely return him to top pound-for-pound status.

This fight will be shown on PPV, though will be televised by Top Rank PPV instead of HBO, who had been under contract to televise Pacquiao's fights. HBO declined to televise this fight due in part to lack of interest in the matchup with Vargas and to avoid clustering the HBO boxing schedule (Andre Ward/Sergey Kovalev PPV on November 19th and the now-canceled Fury/Klitschko matchup that had been scheduled for October 29th.)

Loquacious ESPN personality Stephen A. Smith will make debut as a boxing color analyst for this fight, commentating alongside Brian Kenny, who will serve as the blow-by-blow announcer. Tim Bradley, who fought Pacquiao in his last fight this past April and who fought Vargas back in 2015, will also serve as an analyst for the fight.

Why Manny Pacquiao will win

Pacquiao is universally considered one of the best boxers in the history of the sport and, alongside Floyd Mayweather Jr., is one of the top two boxers of this generation. Judging by his performance this past April vs. Bradley - a possible future hall-of-famer who was coming off of an impressive TKO victory of granite-chinned Brandon Rios - Pacquiao is likely still one of the elite fighters in the sport. The freakish, next-level athleticism and talent that made Pacquiao a global icon is for the most part still there.

Although more than 10 years older, Pacquiao still has clear and significant hand speed and power advantages over Vargas, who has shown some solid power in his last couple of fights but only has 10 KOs in 28 career fights (36%). Pacquiao is an ambush-style fighter who is adept at moving in on his opponents and using his excellent hand speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter. Although not quite as fast or as strong as he was in his prime, it would be shocking if Pacquiao doesn't consistently beat the much slower Vargas to the punch with his speed and evade Vargas's pocket attack with his head movement and footwork, both of which are still amongst the best in boxing.

The 5'10" Vargas possesses a 4.5" height advantage and 4" reach advantage over Pacquiao, but Manny has had great success in previous fights vs. taller fighters with significant reach advantage (see his fights vs. 5'11" Antonio Margarito, 5'10" Oscar De La Hoya, and 5'10" Chris Algieri who were all dominated by Pacquiao despite their height and a 5" reach advantage). Vargas is a solid, technically skilled fighter but his attack will likely be somewhat stymied vs. Pacquiao (as it was vs. 5'6" Tim Bradley) as he will at times have to bend over and adjust the angles at which he naturally throws punches to land clean punches vs. his shorter opponent.

With clear disadvantages in speed, power, talent, athleticism, and experience, Vargas's chances lie largely on whether he can time Pacquiao and land a big right hand to set up a TKO/KO upset - as he did in his last fight in a 9th round TKO victory vs. betting favorite Sadam Ali and as he almost did late in the 12th round of his June 2015 fight vs. Bradley when he stunned Bradley with a big right hook. But Pacquiao is a highly experienced fighter who has actually fought a much more cautious and defensively responsible style since his KO loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012; Pacquiao is better than he was even in his prime at keeping his guard up and still has very good head movement so it will be tough even for a skilled, classic Mexican-style boxer like Vargas to catch him with a big shot (especially given the speed disparity).

There's also the question of how much Pacquiao has really fallen off over the past few years. While obviously not the KO king he was in his prime (though the lack of KOs can mostly be attributed to  fighting guys who are naturally bigger than him at welterweight), his performances have still generally been top-level; Pacquiao's only losses in the last 4.5 years came vs. 1) an undefeated Tim Bradley in a split decision loss that the vast majority of boxing fans, experts, and media felt Pacquiao won decisively, 2) a KO loss to Marquez that Pacquiao was winning decisively and looking to finish early before getting caught with a big punch, and 3) a unanimous decision loss to a boxer widely considered the best fighter of this generation, Floyd Mayweather - a fight where he was able to win 4 rounds on 2 out of 3 of the judges' scorecards despite (at least according to Pacquiao) having an injured right shoulder. It can easily be argued that Pacquiao's skills haven't deteriorated nearly as much as people think and that he's (at 37 years old) maybe even the best welterweight in the world right now with Mayweather retired from the sport. 

Vargas is a good boxer and the current WBO welterweight champion but thus far in his career hasn't shown anything special to suggest that he would be a threat to upset Pacquiao. The best win of Vargas's career was his most recent fight vs. unbeaten, but unproven contender Sadam Ali and he lost convincingly in his 2015 fight vs. Timothy Bradley, a fighter Pacquiao has beaten convincingly twice (arguably three times). Over the past 17 years (spanning 38 fights), Pacquiao's only losses have been competitive losses to hall-of-fame caliber opponents (Mayweather, Marquez, Erik Morales, and possibly Bradley); Vargas is very widely considered a level (or two) below these caliber of fighters.

Despite this fight taking place in Las Vegas - where Vargas has lived and trained for several years - the fan-friendly and still extremely popular Pacquiao is the main attraction for this fight and will be the overwhelming crowd favorite, which sometimes affects (in favor of the crowd favorite) the action inside the ring and the judging outside of it.

Even with the personal and political distractions in his life, Pacquiao has always been an unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big PPV fights. But for less experienced Vargas this is his first time headlining a PPV card; it's unclear how the atmosphere and pressure surrounding his first PPV fight will affect him.

Why Jessie Vargas will win

Vargas is the current WBO welterweight champion of the world and is coming off of the best win of his career, a 9th round TKO vs. betting favorite Sadam Ali, who was undefeated at the time.

Vargas is a very skilled, well-rounded, aggressive boxer with a good jab, good reach (4" reach advantage over Pacquiao), and what has recently proven to be a dangerous right hand. With only a 36% KO percentage Vargas isn't known for his power, but in his last couple of fights his big right hand led to an upset TKO victory of Ali and allowed him to stun and nearly knock down Bradley late in the 12th round of their fight in 2015. While not as reckless as he was in his prime, Pacquiao is still a highly aggressive fighter; if Vargas can time Pacquiao's attack, even one big counter right hand from Vargas could be devastating for Pacquiao. Pacquiao has proven at times to be susceptible to right hand counters (most notably Marquez's overhand right to stop Pacquiao in 2012 though Marquez had plenty of success with right hand counters in all four matchups with Pacquiao).

Vargas is the younger fighter (by over 10 years) in the middle of his prime while Pacquiao - though still arguably elite - is several years past his prime and highly prone to slippage at this point in his career,  especially given that his highly aggressive fighting style depends largely on a freakish athleticism that will inevitably deteriorate as he gets older. Pacquiao has generally fought well in recent fights but the fact remains he has lost 3 out of his last 7 fights (over 40% of his fights over the past 4.5 years). If we see further slippage from Pacquiao it would certainly open the door for the fresher, highly confident Vargas.

A classic Mexican-styled boxer, Vargas is a tough, scrappy fighter who has never been stopped and has only been knocked down once in his career (in the 3rd round of a fight he came back to win comfortably by unanimous decision). Vargas may be able to handle Pacquiao's power better than most expect; if so the newly found power in Vargas's right hand will present a huge threat to Manny's attacking, come-forward style over the course of the entire 12 rounds.

Pacquiao will be the overwhelming crowd favorite but this fight is talking place in Las Vegas, where Vargas has lived with his family and trained since he was a child; despite the potentially hostile environment at the Thomas & Mack Center, fighting in his adopted hometown should add an element of comfort for Vargas.

Prefight Analysis

Vargas is an underrated talent but I can't give him more than a puncher's chance to win this fight. It's true that Pacquiao is not the fighter he once was - not as strong, not as fast, and doesn't throw as many punches as he used to - but based on the performance we saw just seven months ago against an A-level fighter in Tim Bradley (a fighter who beat Vargas decisively), Pacquiao is still (at least) a level above Vargas in terms of speed, power, and skill.

Pacquiao will consistently beat Vargas to the punch and frustrate him with his speed, movement, and ability to land power punches cleanly from unexpected angles. Vargas was hit consistently and cleanly by Bradley in their 2015 fight (Bradley landed 49% of his power shots over the last six rounds of the fight) and he even had trouble in the early rounds of his most recent fight vs. Ali's offensive attack so he'll really be up against it facing a fighter who lands cleaner, faster, and harder than any other opponent he's faced in his career.

Vargas has a clear size and reach advantage but Pacquiao historically has looked even more impressive vs. bigger, taller, rangier fighters (see Pacquiao's fights vs. De La Hoya, Margarito, and Algieri) due at least in part to taller fighters having more difficulty being able to adjust angles to land cleanly vs. shorter, elusive opponents like Pacquiao.

Vargas is tough and durable, but is a basic and somewhat predictable 1-2 puncher who will likely be overwhelmed  by Pacquiao's speedy 3-5+ punch combinations and ability to get out of the pocket before Vargas has a chance to counter. Vargas has shown improved power in recent fights but Pacquiao in recent years has been a much more cautious, defensively responsible fighter than he was in his prime; I see Pacquiao being careful to keep his guard up (as he's done in all recent fights since the Marquez KO) and not allow Vargas to set traps and time him with a big right hand.

In my opinion, the only question in this fight is whether Pacquiao wins this fight by a wide unanimous decision or by stoppage. Pacquiao's A-level skills, speed, and power vs. a relatively inexperienced Vargas's pocket-oriented, somewhat flat-footed style makes a stoppage a very real possibility. But Vargas is a gritty, durable boxer who's never been stopped in his career in against a fighter in Pacquiao who's punch output has decreased dramatically over his past several fights and hasn't stopped anyone in nearly seven years. (Pacquiao's last stoppage came in November 2009 vs. a slightly weight drained Miguel Cotto.) While a knockout is a very realistic possibility (due to  Vargas's non-elusive, flat-footed style and discrepancy in skill, speed, and power), I like Vargas's larger, durable, younger frame to last 12 rounds vs. a more cautious-as-of-late Pacquiao who doesn't seem to have the killer instinct he had in his prime.

Pacquiao is a hyper-aggressive fighter  who is still at times defensively irresponsible; while I expect Pacquiao to win this fight easily, at odds better than 16-1, I do think it's well worth it to hedge a bet on Pacquiao with Vargas to win by stoppage given Vargas's grit and the respectable power he's shown in recent fights.

 Prediction: Pacquiao by unanimous decision
Recommended bets: 1) Pacquiao by unanimous decision (1.5 units)
2) Vargas by TKO/KO (.3 unit)

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Golovkin vs. Brook: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Gennady Golovkin (35-0, 32 KOs) vs. Kell Brook (36-0, 25 KOs)
Location: O2 Arena (Millennium Dome), London, England
Date: September 10, 2016
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC, IBF, IBO World Middleweight titles
TV: HBO
Line: Golovkin -570, Brook +480 (5 Dimes, 9/10/16)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin: #1 ranked middleweight, Brook: #1 ranked welterweight
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Brook: Orthodox
Referee: Marlon Wright

Why you should watch this fight

Like the recent Terence Crawford/Viktor Postol and Leo Santa Cruz/Carl Frampton matchups, this will be a fight between two undefeated, top-rated boxers in their prime. Golovkin is widely considered the most feared puncher in boxing and is already considered by some to be one of the great middleweights in the history of the sport. This afternoon he'll be matched up against Brook, a legitimate A-level, top pound-for-pound fighter who is by far the most skilled boxer Golovkin has faced in his professional career.  

Although a very big welterweight, this will be Brook's first fight at middleweight after fighting nearly his entire career in the welterweight (147 lbs) division. Can Brook - as fellow Brit Amir Khan unsuccessfully attempted to do before him in May vs. Canelo Alvarez - become only the 5th boxer in history to win a major world title in his first fight after jumping up two weight classes (Roberto Duran, Roy Jones Jr., Robert Guerrero, Adrien Broner) and the first to do so in the middleweight division? Or will Golovkin get the stoppage in a hostile environment (the fight is in Brook's home country of England) vs. an undefeated fighter who's never been stopped before and bolster his claim as one of the great middleweights in boxing history?

Arguably the three best middleweights in the world (Golovkin, Alvarez, and Danny Jacobs) are fighting over the course of the next week; Kell Brook may actually be a more skilled boxer than all three. But this coming week is an excellent opportunity to get a good look at fighters who likely will be involved in some intriguing megafights within the middleweight division in the very near future.

Why Gennady Golovkin will win

Golovkin is the reigning WBA (Super), WBC, IBF, and IBO middleweight champion and Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #3 boxer in the world. He is undefeated at 35-0 and, with 32 KOs in 35 fights, holds the highest knockout percentage  (91.4%) in middleweight history. Golovkin has reigned as middleweight champion for over six years and has won his last 22 fights by TKO/KO, the most recent 16 of which were middleweight title defenses.

Golovkin is the strong betting favorite in Saturday's fight for several reasons. As the reigning middleweight champion who has successfully defended his title(s) 16 times over the course of a little over six years (currently the 7th longest reign in middleweight history), Golovkin is a much more experienced fighter in the middleweight division  than Brook, a career welterweight who is moving up two weight classes to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career vs. an opponent some already consider to be one of the great middleweight boxers of all time.

Golovkin is naturally bigger, physically stronger, and possesses much more punching power than Brook - whose power at welterweight was good (25 KOs in 36 fights), but not considered great. A big question for this fight is how Brook's power at welterweight will translate to the middleweight division vs. an opponent in Golovkin who seemed unfazed when up against bigger, more dangerous power punchers than Brook (see Golovkin's fights vs. David Lemieux and Marco Antonio Rubio) and has never been knocked down or knocked out in 385 fights as an amateur and pro.

Golovkin is notorious for his outstanding punching power but he is also a technically savvy fighter with underrated boxing skills that are arguably superior to Brook's. Golovkin is an intelligent pressure fighter with one of the better jabs in boxing to compliment his methodical, accurate combination punching. He has impeccable balance in his movement and is excellent at using footwork to cut off the ring. Golovkin's pressure should be effective vs. Brook - who is mobile enough but not known for his foot speed, which could be slower than usual given the additional weight he's put on moving up two weight classes to middleweight. Brook is also known for tiring in the mid to late rounds of fights, which plays into Golovkin's pressure style.

Golovkin is not as quick or as fast as Brook but he controls distance extremely well and has superb punch timing, which should at least be somewhat effective in mitigating Brook's hand and foot speed advantages. Golovkin's pressure and physical size advantage could wear on the smaller Brook, who in previous fights has been effectively pressured and outmuscled by smaller, less skilled boxers than Golovkin. (See the later rounds of Brook's first fight vs. Carson Jones as a primary example.)

Brook is a top-level, pound-for-pound caliber boxer who - given Golovkin's aggressive style and at times willingness to trade punches - will be effective in spots with counters and body shots but Golovkin has been unfazed when facing boxers with significantly more dangerous punching power so there may not be enough in Brook's offensive arsenal to deter the expected Golovkin onslaught.  

Why Kell Brook will win

Like Golovkin, Brook is an undefeated fighter in his prime who - while not currently ranked on the Ring Magazine Top 10 pound-for-pound list - is widely considered one of the top pound-for-pound boxers in the world. Brook is a slick, versatile fighter with good power in both hands. He is a highly intelligent, adaptive fighter who can box either in an aggressive, come forward style or box on his feet relying on his timing and counter punching as needed.

At approximately 6-1 odds, Brook is a sizable underdog vs. Golovkin but he has several advantages in his favor. Brook is a legitimate, top-level fighter who is by far the most skilled boxer Golovkin has fought in his professional career; many would actually consider Brook a better fighter than Golovkin in terms of pure boxing skill. Golovkin has dominated all of his opponents thus far in his professional career but he's never fought anyone of Brook's caliber so it will be interesting to see how he fares in this matchup. To give perspective, Golovkin has never fought a top 50 pound-for-pound fighter in his career; Brook is considered by most to be one of the top 10-15 boxers in the world.

Brook has clear hand and foot speed advantages over Golovkin. If Brook can effectively maintain distance vs. Golovkin's pressure he could outbox GGG in stretches by beating him to the punch with jabs (and Brook is known to have one of the better jabs in boxing) and well-timed counters.

Brook is moving up two weight classes to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career but he's always been a very big welterweight with excellent strength for his size. Brook's normal walk around weight is actually around 175-180 pounds (light heavyweight to cruiser division weight) so it may not be as much of a problem as some anticipate for him to fight at 160 pounds, which may even be a more comfortable weight for him than welterweight. I wouldn't be surprised if Brook's power and stamina carry up to middleweight better than expected to the point where he may even be an improved fighter, given that he doesn't have to drain nearly as much weight to make weight at 160 pounds as he did at 147.

Brook is a strong, physical fighter who in previous fights has effectively outmuscled other physically strong welterweights like Shawn Porter. (Porter even had experience fighting at middleweight and in terms of pure physical strength is probably stronger than Golovkin.) Brook had success mitigating Porter's (typically rough-house) inside attack by using his strength to clinch and smother Porter when Porter jumped inside; it would not be too surprising if Brook can similarly frustrate Golovkin by clinching inside on him when he comes into range.  

This fight is taking place in Brook's home country of England, in a sold-out O2 arena in front of a raucous crowd that will be loudly cheering on the hometown boxer. As demonstrated countless amounts of times in big fights, home crowd support sometimes affects both the fighting inside the ring and the judging outside of it, usually in the favor of the hometown fighter.

Brook does have some holes in his defense where he does not reset to the correct defensive position quick enough (which sometimes leaves him open for clean counters), but he has only been knocked down once (in the 1st round of a 2007 fight vs. Karl David) and has never been stopped in his professional career. Most are expecting Golovkin to stop Brook but Brook does have enough skill and elusive foot movement to go 12 rounds vs. Golovkin  even if he does end up being outclassed.

Prefight Analysis

Kell Brook will have his opportunities in this afternoon's fight and may perform better than most expect. As he's already been fighting as a super huge welterweight I don't think the jump in weight classes to middleweight will be nearly as much of a detriment as some think and in many ways may actually improve aspects of his performance (e.g., less weight to drain prefight may lessen his tendency to tire in later rounds) as he will be fighting much closer to his true weight . Brook may actually be the better pure boxer in this matchup; his A-level skills combined with his speed advantage and ability to adjust his fighting style and even his stance (e.g., from orthodox to southpaw) during the course of a fight presents Golovkin with multiple problems he has not yet faced in his professional career. Given this, taking Brook to win by 12-round decision at 9-1 odds *could* have some value.

But honestly I don't this fight being competitive past maybe the early rounds. Many see the two weight class jump as the main problem for Brook. I disagree given that Brook is a naturally bigger guy anyway - I think he will fill out at 160 pounds and adjust to that weight without too much difficulty. Brook's main problems lie in what I think will be a clear disparity between him and Golovkin in terms of chin and overall defensive ability. Brook is an outstanding offensive fighter with with pretty good power and a clear hand speed advantage vs. Golovkin; he should be able to land some quality punches in spots but I don't see his punching having much of an effect on Golovkin - especially considering that Golovkin has already faced much harder hitting opponents at middleweight and effectively stymied their power en route to easy TKO/KO victories. Golovkin - who again has never been knocked down or knocked out in 385 amateur and professional fights - has a proven iron chin and impeccable balance defensively to the point where he should be able to handle Brook's varied offensive attack without too much difficulty.

So the question then is how well will Brook be able handle Golovkin's deadly mix of pressure, offensive skill, and power? At welterweight, Brook has never faced a fighter with Golovkin's punching power; while Brook has pretty good elusive mobility, Golovkin is excellent at cutting off the ring even vs. more mobile opponents and will eventually catch up to Brook. Brook has a good chin but has been bloodied and effectively pressured multiple times at welterweight - even vs. fighters not particularly known for their punching power. Facing an undefeated, top-level champion at middleweight who is perhaps the best power puncher the sport has seen in years I think - somewhat similar to Khan when he fought Canelo - it's only a matter of time before Brook gets caught. If Brook had Khan's ultra-quick hands and foot speed I actually think he'd probably last the full 12 rounds vs. Golovkin but Brook - while having better balance and chin than Khan - isn't nearly as elusive as Khan and will be forced to fight within Golovkin's range for stretches of the fight.

Brook is slick with more speed than Golovkin so may have his moments early but - with the exception of maybe the highly elusive Erislandy Lara - Golovkin vs. any current fighter from 154 to 168 pounds having to trade shots with Golovkin the smart money is on Golovkin by TKO/KO... perhaps not in the early rounds but think Golovkin will be able to overwhelm him by the mid to later rounds.

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO

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Crawford vs. Postol: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Terence Crawford (28-0, 20 KOs) vs. Viktor Postol (28-0, 12 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: July 23, 2016
Weight class: Super Lightweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC and WBO Super Lightweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Crawford -570, Postol +480 (5 Dimes, 7/23/16)
Purse: Crawford: $1.3 million, Postol: $675,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Crawford: #6 ranked pound-for-pound, #2 ranked junior welterweight, Postol: #1 ranked junior welterweight
Style: Crawford: Orthodox, Postol: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Why you should watch this fight

Terence Crawford is being promoted as potentially the next great American boxing superstar; this fight will go a long way towards answering whether he can achieve that potential. Saturday night's fight is the PPV debut for both Crawford and Postol. Both are undefeated with identical 28-0 records and are universally recognized as the top two fighters at 140 lbs. The winner of this fight will likely be the favorite as the next opponent for Manny Pacquiao, whose promoter Bob Arum (who happens to also be the promoter for both Crawford and Postol) has already reserved the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas for a PPV fight in November (though the fact that Postol and Pacquiao have the same trainer in Freddie Roach complicates things in terms of a possible Pacquiao/Postol matchup). The winner of this fight will not only be the WBC and WBO super lightweight champion, but will also be the lineal super lightweight champion (as Danny Garcia vacated that title to move up to the welterweight division.

This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the year - an up and coming potential superstar in Crawford who is already rated one of the best boxers in the world pound-for-pound vs. an arguably equally skilled but much lesser known fighter in Postol. Crawford is athletically superior in terms of speed, quickness, and power but Postol moves very well on his feet, has the clear reach advantage, and is generally more active in terms of punches thrown. The winner of this fight will be firmly established as one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world and sit on the cusp of boxing superstardom, pending the potential fight with Pacquiao this fall.

Why Terence Crawford will win

Despite both fighters being undefeated and head and shoulders above the rest in the 140 lb division, Crawford is a wide 6-1 favorite for multiple reasons. Crawford is the athletically superior fighter, possessing better power, speed, and quickness than Postol (though Crawford's advantages here are perhaps not as wide as some think). Crawford is a two-division (former lightweight and current super lightweight) world champion and the more proven fighter, having beaten former world champions and top contenders such as Yuriokis Gamboa, Ricky Burns, Raymundo Beltran, Thomas Dulorme, Dierry Jean, and Hank Lundy. (Postol by comparison has fought only two opponents ranked in the top 20 within his division - Lucas Matthysse and Hank Lundy.)

Crawford's versatility - most notably his ability to fight from either the orthodox or southpaw stance at an elite level - will likely pose problems for Postol whose defense can be a bit careless in spots... in particular the way he shoots his jab while moving to the right, which sometimes leaves him susceptible to right-hand counters. Crawford is an accurate counter puncher with power in both hands and is outstanding at making mid-round adjustments; one should expect he'll eventually have success penetrating Postol's defense despite Postol's constant foot movement and reach advantage.

Given Postol's lack of top-level experience, there is a reasonable chance he's overrated despite being undefeated and the #2-ranked fighter in the division. Crawford is a (huge) step up for him and is by far the most talented and skilled boxer he's fought in his professional career. Postol has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career (even vs. highly feared power puncher Matthysse where he displayed a solid combination of good chin and elusiveness defensively) but if Postol's undefeated record is more a case of him looking better than we thought he was vs. B- and C-level fighters, Crawford's power and skills (which are generally regarded as A-level) will likely expose Postol fairly quickly.  

At 5'11", Postol has a 3" height advantage in this fight and fights tall but that may work against him as Postol's relatively tall frame may prove to be an easy target for an accurate puncher like Crawford.

Postol has displayed surprisingly good power in his three fights under Freddie Roach but Crawford, like Postol, has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career and has shown an excellent chin in some of his more high profile fights (in particular vs. power puncher Gamboa) so one shouldn't expect a fighter with a 43% KO percentage in Postol to stop Crawford (or pose any sort of threat in terms of punching power for that matter).

Crawford is from Omaha, Nebraska and tonight's fight is in Las Vegas but Crawford's Omaha fanbase travels very well (Crawford's fight this past February in New York City sold out largely due to Crawford's fanbase) and the fact that Crawford is American should render Crawford the strong crowd favorite at the MGM Grand, which should provide motivation for Crawford inside the ring and could influence the judges' scoring outside of it. Crawford has been promoted as the A-side for this PPV event and - for numerous reasons - boxing politics would strongly prefer a Crawford vs. Pacquiao rather than Postol vs. Pacquiao matchup later this fall. If the fight is close one should expect the judging to favor the the fighter being promoted as a future superstar over the lesser known Ukrainian - even if Postol slightly outboxes him.

Why Viktor Postol will win

Postol comes into this fight as a significant underdog but - like Crawford - is an undefeated world champion in the 140 lb division. While not quite as athletic as Crawford, Postol - in my opinion - is on Crawford's level in terms of skill and boxing IQ. (In the effort to promote Crawford as a future superstar I do think Crawford's skills have been a bit overrated by numerous boxing outlets, most notably HBO Sports.)

Postol is a relatively tall (5'11"), lengthy (73.5" reach) fighter who is adept at working behind his long jab to set up combination punches from distance. With a long 70" reach, Crawford is a fighter who typically enjoys a reach advantage over his opponents, which he's often used behind the jab as a timing mechanism; Saturday night will be a rare instance where Crawford will not have a reach advantage (and on the contrary will actually have a clear disadvantage in reach).

As a combination puncher, Postol is a high punch volume fighter who moves very well on his feet. Crawford - especially in the early rounds - is typically a patient, cautious fighter who likely won't match Postol's work rate. Crawford is notorious for being a slow starter; in recent fights he lost the 1st round to Ricky Burns, lost 3 or 4 of the first 4 rounds to Gamboa, was trailing most of the 1st round vs. Beltran before rallying late to take the round, lost the 1st round vs. Dulorme, was losing the 1st round vs. Jean before scoring a knockout late in the round, and lost the 1st round vs. Lundy. Against a highly skilled, elusive fighter with a high work rate and considerable reach advantage like Postol, I actually expect Crawford to be trailing after the early rounds while trying to figure out how to break down Postol's relatively unusual combination of height, reach, high punch volume, and mobility. Given Postol's ability to fight off his back foot, there is a good chance that much of this fight is fought from the outside - where Postol likely has an advantage with his reach and work rate.
Three years ago, Crawford fought Prescott, a talented fighter with a height (5'11") and reach (72") similar to Postol's in a fight that Crawford dominated... but Prescott did not have the combination punching skills or work rate that Postol has.

Crawford has made a career recently of fighting talented, but undersized opponents; Crawford's last two opponents - Lundy and Jean - both were fighting at lightweight (135 lbs) before moving up in weight to fight Crawford. Both Gamboa and Burns were noticeably smaller than Crawford when Crawford fought them at lightweight. (Gamboa had actually been a featherweight - two divisions below lightweight - for most of his career but was still able to give Crawford a lot of problems in the early rounds of their fight.) Postol is a natural 140 lb fighter and is actually naturally bigger than Crawford. This will be the first fight of Crawford's career vs. a world-class opponent of his own size; Crawford may not be able to overpower Postol like he has many of the smaller fighters he's faced in recent fights.

Crawford slips punches well but at times gets careless and is more than willing to take punches to set up his own attack. (Gamboa in particular tagged Crawford quite a bit in the early rounds of their fight and tested his chin early.) Crawford has heart and a lot of street fight in him but that may work to his disadvantage vs. Postol's combination of intelligent movement. reach advantage, volume, and ability to box on his feet from distance. I would not be surprised if Postol is able to neutralize Crawford's strong jab game with his longer jab and movement, which may frustrate Crawford and lead to countering opportunities for Postol from distance as Crawford increases his aggressiveness in the middle and late rounds. Note also that Postol is proven to have a solid chin, having never been knocked down or knocked out in his career, including his most recent fight vs. one of the most feared punchers in the sport in Matthysse, who's had 34 of his 37 wins come by KO. Crawford is certainly more skilled than Matthysse, but does not have Matthysse's power and is not a particularly busy fighter so it is tough for me to envision Crawford winning this fight by stoppage given Postol's strong chin and elusive style.  Note that in training under Freddie Roach, Postol has had a lot of experience sparring vs. Manny Pacquiao, who has more power, speed, and arguably more skill than even Crawford.

With a career 43% KO percentage, Postol is hardly a feared power puncher but in his last three fights under Freddie Roach, Postol has been much more effective with his power, winning 2 or his last 3 fights by KO (vs. arguably the two toughest opponents of his career to date in Matthysse and Aydin). Postol is not a one-punch power puncher but is effective in wearing down his opponents with volume; I don't see Postol stopping Crawford but do think Postol has enough sneaky power to heavily frustrate Crawford if he stays busy and keeps Crawford at a distance with movement.

With his somewhat rare combination of height, reach, high-level skills, punch volume, and savvy ring movement, Postol has an unorthodox style that is difficult to prepare for and defend against. If Crawford is even slightly overrated - which I believe he is - Postol's style will expose Crawford fairly quickly and this will be a much, much closer fight than expected.

Prefight Analysis

I think Crawford is the better fighter overall and will probably win this fight. He is the more athletic, experienced fighter with advantages in versatility, power, and speed; as the fighter being heavily promoted by politically powerful boxing entities such as HBO Sports, Top Rank, etc. as a future superstar and with a potential Pacquiao/Crawford PPV megafight looming for early November, Crawford will likely win this fight on the judges' scorecards, even in the event of a close fight where Postol slightly outboxes him. Given how well Crawford's core fan base from Omaha travels and the fact that he is the American in this matchup with an entertaining, fan-friendly style, Crawford will also have the advantage of fighting in front of what should be an overwhelmingly pro-Crawford crowd in Las Vegas.

But even with these advantages (most notably the boxing politics, which in theory shouldn't be a factor but realistically has a good chance to be), I still give Postol a very realistic chance to win this fight. While I think Crawford is a fun to watch, highly skilled boxer, I think he's been a bit overrated in HBO's (in my view somewhat desperate) effort to find the next great American boxing superstar (and a superstar who can eventually replace Pacquiao as the network's next PPV cash cow). While not as athletic, I do believe Postol to be on Crawford's level in terms of skill and believe he has a difficult-to-solve combination of height, reach advantage, intelligent ring movement, and strong chin to highly frustrate even the usually unflappable Crawford.

The typically fast starting Postol will likely outwork the typically cautious, slow starting Crawford in the early rounds but I think Postol has the chin, stamina, and overall skills to win enough of the middle and late rounds to potentially steal a decision from the heavily favored Crawford. I think Crawford actually wins this matchup 65-75% of the time, but even at that win rate the nearly 5-1 odds you can get on Postol to win the fight (or better yet, the up to 7-1 odds for Postol to win the fight by decision) makes betting on Postol to win a very solid value bet.

While I think Postol by decision at 6.5-1 or 7-1 is a slightly stronger bet than Postol simply to win at nearly 5-1, 5-1 is high enough odds worth taking to mitigate the risk of a shocking stoppage of Crawford by the Ukrainian (which I don't see happening but, as he showed in his last fight vs. Matthysse, Postol is capable of wearing his opponents down with volume and has enough sneaky power in his right hand to catch a fatigued opponent late).

Postol is the best fighter Crawford has ever faced and is the first top-level fighter Crawford has fought that isn't undersized (and is actually naturally bigger than he is). Given his 3.5" reach advantage and own effective jab, Postol is perhaps the only fighter  at 140 lbs that can neutralize Crawford's typically highly effective jab game; if Postol keeps the fight at a distance and off the ropes with his reach advantage, he has a chance to come away with a decision on points by outworking Crawford with high punch volume.

Regardless of who wins this matchup, the chins on both fighters (neither Crawford or Postol have been stopped or knocked down in their professional careers, even though both have fought fighters with more power than what they're each facing tonight) are so solid that I think it's highly likely that this fight goes 12 rounds, making a bet on the fight to go 12 rounds at -160 odds perhaps the strongest bet. Even if Crawford performs better than I expect and is able to dominate and overwhelm Postol in the middle and late rounds, I still think Postol's foot movement, excellent chin, and ability to jab from distance will get him through 12 rounds without being stopped. As unflappable as Crawford typically is, Postol has displayed a similar lack of fluster under pressure (see rounds 6 and 7 of his fight with Matthysse).

Looking forward to this fight - very intriguing matchup that has potentially a myriad of ways to unfold!

Prediction: Crawford to win

Recommended bets: 1) Crawford/Postol goes full 12 rounds (1 unit)

2) Postol to win by decision (.5 unit)

3) Postol to win (.5 unit)

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Hernandez-Harrison vs. Dallas Jr.: postfight scoring recap and analysis

Fight: Dusty Hernandez-Harrison (29-0, 16 KOs) vs. Mike Dallas Jr. (21-3-1, 10 KOs)
Location: Washington D.C.
Date: May 13, 2016
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: BET
Line: Hernandez-Harrison -550, Dallas Jr. +400 (5 Dimes, 5/13/16)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Hernandez-Harrison - Not ranked, Dallas Jr. - Not ranked
Style: Hernandez-Harrison: Orthodox, Dallas Jr.: Orthodox
Referee: Malik Waleed

Scoring Recap
Postfight Analysis

Outcome: Harrison-Hernandez draws Dallas Jr. (split decision draw)
Judge Scorecards: Tammye Jenkins 95-94 (Hernandez-Harrison) | Paul Wallace 96-92 (Dallas Jr.)| Wayne Smith 94-94 (draw)

Master Class Boxing Scorecard: 96-92 (Dallas Jr.)
BET Scorecard: 95-93 (Dallas Jr.)

(click here to view judges' round-by-round scoring)
(click here to view full fight)

Round-by-Round Scoring Recap

Round 1:  10-9 Dallas Jr. (clear), Score: 10-9 Dallas Jr.

Round 2:  10-9 Dallas Jr. (clear), Score: 20-18 Dallas Jr.

Round 3:  10-9 Dallas Jr. (clear), Score: 30-27 Dallas Jr.

Rounds 1-3 were much of the same  - Dallas moving well, staying outside of Dusty's range while outboxing Dusty with activity and hand speed. Dallas, the smaller man in the fight, was mostly the aggressor and landed a wide variety punches - most notably consistently landing straight lefts to the body and combinations to Dusty's face. Dusty was patient and stayed mostly behind a high guard defense the first few rounds, at times stalking Dallas but never throwing many punches (and generally not landing more than one punch at a time). Dusty got a bit more aggressive in the 2nd and 3rd rounds landing some good power shots to the body at times, but Dallas clearly outworked him by beating him to the punch with his hand speed advantage and staying out of range with his foot speed.

Round 4:  Dallas is still outworking Dusty with hand speed and movement, especially in the early part of the round. Dallas still throwing nice combination punches (some of which land, some of which are getting blocked by Dusty's guard)  while Dusty is still generally landing only one punch at a time. Some good exchanges towards the middle and end of the round - Dusty drops his guard and gets more aggressive, landing some solid one-punch power shots in the second half of the round. A couple of nice power right hands by Dusty to end the round. Dallas definitely threw and landed more punches in this round but Dusty appeared to land the more meaningful shots. 10-9 Hernandez-Harrison (close), Score: 39-37 Dallas Jr.

Round 5:  Noticeable abrasion on the left side of Dusty's face from combinations landed by Dallas in the earlier rounds. Dusty more aggressive, throwing more punches to start off the round but Dallas still outworking Dusty with a wide variety of punches - some of which are getting blocked but many of which are getting through. Dallas is smaller but is clearly the more skilled boxer. As in the earlier rounds, Dallas is consistently beating Dusty to the punch and largely staying out of Dusty's range with good foot movement. Dusty is dropping his hands (which he also did in the last round) as he is stalking Dallas. In the latter part of the round Dallas lands a nice power right shot with a follow-up left that sends Dusty to the ground. Dusty gets up and round ends shortly after. Clear round for Dallas. 10-8 Dallas Jr. (clear), Score: 49-45 Dallas Jr.

Round 6:  Dallas loading up and throwing a lot of big power shots early in the round with Dusty - likely still a bit dazed from the knockdown towards the end of the last round - back behind his high guard trying to defend himself. Dallas landing all the shots in this round, both to Dusty's face and body area. Dallas stalking Dusty trying to end it. Dusty gathers himself towards the middle of the round but hardly throws or lands any punches in the round, staying mostly behind his high guard. 10-9 Dallas Jr. (clear), Score: 59-54 Dallas Jr.

Round 7:  Dallas outboxing Dusty early, varying his punches well and moving before Dusty can set his feet and get off. Dusty does land a decent flurry in the middle of the round but Dallas outworking him still. Towards the end of the round Dusty lands a late, cheap shot after the referee tells the fighters to break. (It's possible Dusty didn't hear the referee but he probably should have been deducted a point there.) 10-9 Dallas Jr. (clear), Score: 69-63 Dallas Jr.

Round 8:  More of the same - Dallas still outboxing and outworking Dusty. Dallas is mostly just too fast for Dusty. In the middle of the round Dusty lands a couple of left hands that appear to be a bit low and send Dallas to his knees holding his cup. Referee doesn't clearly see the punches and rules (much to Dallas's and the crowd's surprise) a knockdown after Dallas drops to the ground. A bit of a closer round due to Dusty landing a few body shots but Dallas seems to get the better of Dusty through the remainder of the round. Still scored the round 10-8 for Dusty (as opposed to 10-9) due to the ruled knockdown and the round being close. 10-8 Hernandez-Harrison (close), Score: 77-73 Dallas Jr.

Round 9:  Dusty coming out this round more aggressive with lead left jabs (probably should have thrown more of these earlier in the fight). Dallas still outboxing Dusty with combinations and speed but Dusty is being much more aggressive here, probably knowing he is behind on the scorecards. Dallas looks a bit tired but is still outworking Dusty, throwing and landing more punches. Dusty lands a couple of nice body shots followed by a right uppercut late in the round. Dallas fires back with some nice combinations. Harrison lands a nice flurry towards the end of the round before Dallas counters with his own flurry right before the bell. Dusty appears to be bleeding from both nostrils. Close round but Dallas still throwing and landing more punches, and is landing the cleaner shots. 10-9 Dallas Jr. (close), Score: 87-82 Dallas Jr.

Round 10:  Both fighters come out with some urgency. Dallas still more active and landing more punches but Dusty landing some good shots of his own. In the middle of the round, Dusty backs Dallas into the corner and lands a nice combination. Some good exchanges here overall - probably most entertaining round of the fight. Dusty lands a nice flurry in the latter part of the round; both fighters exchange combinations combinations to end the round. Dallas probably landed more punches in this round (as he did in nearly every other round) but Dusty landed some solid power punches here. 10-9 Hernandez-Harrison (close), Score: 96-92 Dallas Jr.

Postfight Analysis

I'm generally not one to play the "robbery" card as I recognize that a range of scores is usually reasonable - but this was absolutely a robbery. Dallas very clearly outboxed Dusty - both throwing and landing more punches while displaying superior skill and hand speed over the course of the 10 rounds. Dallas moved very well on his feet and largely stayed out of range  vs. a relatively inactive, somewhat flat-footed Dusty who rarely landed more than one punch at a time. I actually felt Dallas won as many as 9 out of the 10 rounds and - with the exception of the 8th round (where Dusty was awarded a questionable knockdown) - felt that every round that could be scored for Dusty was a close round, while there were several rounds that Dallas won pretty clearly. In particular, I'm not sure why 2 out of the 3 judges scored the 3rd and 7th rounds for Dusty, rounds I felt were clear rounds for Dallas.  

Watching from ringside, I felt bad for Dallas after the fight. This is a guy who's been robbed before in a previous fight vs. a top contender in Mauricio Herrera. This is also a guy who suffered a 1st round KO loss vs. feared power puncher Lucas Matthysse, a fight he took on a few weeks notice shortly after his father passed away from leukemia. After the KO loss and his father's passing he spent a couple of years away from boxing, only recently returning  to put on perhaps one of the better performances of his career this past Friday... only to be robbed again. Dallas came into this fight vs. Dusty the more experienced, skilled fighter and it clearly showed on fight night.

On paper, it's understandable why Dusty is such a highly regarded prospect. Dusty is a 3-time National Junior Golden Gloves champion. He at one point a few years ago turned down an opportunity for the Olympics to become the youngest professional fighter in the United States at 17. He is athletic, has excellent height and length for his weight class, and is well-rounded in terms of having pretty good boxing skills, speed, and power. He's been praised by the likes of Mike Tyson and Andre Ward and is considered by some to be the best boxing prospect out of the Washington D.C. area since Sugar Ray Leonard. At 21 years old, Dusty also already has multi-year sponsorship deals from Fila and GEICO.

But Dusty's impressive amateur pedigree and skills on paper have - thus far - not translated well to his professional career. He's undefeated (29-0-1) but has been matched up vs. embarrassingly soft competition to this point in his career. Prior to fighting Dallas, Dusty had yet to face a fighter ranked even in the top 250 (as ranked by BoxRec) in his weight class and less than 10 of the 30 fighters he's fought thus far in his career have a winning record. Despite the putrid competition Dusty has actually been knocked down multiple times in his career, which includes getting knocked down 3.5 years ago in his hometown by a fighter who currently has a record of 3-24, and his most recent fight vs. Dallas - a solid boxer but B or C-level fighter who hadn't fought any legitimate competition in over 2 years.

What's especially concerning is Dallas, who only has 10 KOs in 26 fights, was the smaller boxer in this matchup but at times took the fight to the bigger, stronger Dusty and was able to score a 5th round knockdown (which could've even been a stoppage if there had been more time left in the round). If smaller guys like Dallas and no-name journeymen like Michael Balasi and Marqus Johnson can score knockdowns vs. Dusty you'd have to assume the top guys at 147 with legit punching power, or even decent punching power at 154 (a weight class where Dusty has fought quite a bit in the past and will presumably return to as he gets older) won't have too much trouble putting Dusty to the canvas with his questionable chin and poor head movement.

Dusty is very young and, at 21 years old, still has plenty of years to improve but chin resistance and speed (two attributes that were noticeably lacking in his fight vs. Dallas) usually don't improve over the course of a career. Dusty will have to work quite a bit on improving his punch output, head movement, and overall boxing technique if he wants to compete with the top contenders at 147 and 154. Dusty looked good in spots vs. Dallas with his pressure and power punching, but this was primarily due to his size advantage - he for the most part was outclassed and looked flat-footed vs. Dallas, who is a solid fighter but far from one of the elite guys in Dusty's weight class.

We'll have to see what the future holds for Dusty, but he may need to take a step down in competition and further hone his skills against weaker competition if he wants to avoid risking a loss in the very near future.

The draw this past Friday in D.C. was unfortunately the latest in a line of very questionable scorecards out of the D.C. area - going back to the Amir Khan/Lamont Peterson fight in 2011 (controversial split decision for Peterson after two questionable point deductions from Khan for pushing) and the Badou Jack/Lucian Bute draw last month.

Canelo vs. Khan: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (46-1-1, 32 KOs) vs. Amir Khan (31-3, 19 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 7, 2016
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 155 lbs
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Middleweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez -475, Khan +420 (5 Dimes, 5/7/16)
Purse: Alvarez: $3.5 million, Khan: $2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Khan: #2 ranked welterweight
Style: Canelo: Orthodox, Khan: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

Canelo vs. Khan is (by far) the biggest fight of the year thus far and is the first boxing event at MGM Resorts' brand new T-Mobile Arena, which just opened in April. This will be Canelo's first middleweight title defense after defeating Miguel Cotto last November for the WBC, Ring Magazine, and lineal middleweight titles. Will this fight be the precursor to a megafight with Gennady Golovkin later this year or early 2017? Can Canelo decisively defeat a fighter in Khan who - by most accounts - is the more technically skilled fighter with a clear hand and foot speed advantage? In the recent past, Canelo has had issues with mobile fighters like Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Erislandy Lara; Khan is generally considered quicker than both.

This is the first PPV fight for Khan and stands a good chance of being the defining fight of his career; can Khan become only the 5th boxer in history to win a major world title in his first fight after jumping up two weight classes (Roberto Duran, Roy Jones Jr., Robert Guerrero, Adrien Broner) and the first to do so in the middleweight division? If Khan beats Canelo, he would become only the 2nd boxer to win a lineal championship in his first fight after jumping up two divisions (Duran) - that would be an extremely impressive feat even considering the fight is being fought at a catchweight of 155 lbs.

Why Canelo Alvarez will win

There are many reasons why Canelo is around a 5-1 favorite to win this fight.

Canelo is the younger, stronger boxer (and in fact is likely the strongest boxer Khan has ever faced) facing a boxer in Khan who has a notorious history of chin (as well as other fundamental defensive) problems resulting in him being knocked down and/or knocked out multiple times by lesser punchers than Canelo. Canelo is the naturally bigger boxer fighting in a weight range he is comfortable at (150-155 lbs) and has been fighting at for over five years while Khan is moving up two weight classes to fight at 155 lbs for the first time after fighting his entire career at 140 and 147. Khan has pretty good power but how his power will translate after moving up two weight classes is a huge question mark, especially against a bigger fighter like Canelo who has proven to have a very good chin. (Canelo has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career.)

Canelo is in his prime and appears to still be improving with each fight. Although known and marketed as a big puncher, Canelo is a (very) high IQ, skilled boxer who, per CompuBox statistics, is one of the most efficient fighters in the sport. He is a patient, but highly accurate puncher who throws combination punches in particular very well. Canelo is also an excellent body puncher who will likely make it a point to attack Khan's body throughout the course of the fight. Khan is very mobile but it will be nearly impossible for him to elude Canelo's aggressive accuracy and power for a full 12 rounds - especially given his penchant for staying at inside distance a bit too long while executing his quick combinations.

Canelo cuts off the ring pretty well for someone not too fleet of foot (he had success cutting off the ring vs. Lara in spots) and, while not quite as fast as Khan, has very underrated hand speed.

No one would consider Canelo a defensive wizard but his defense - in particular his upper body and head movement - have noticeably improved in recent fights. Canelo has also never been knocked down or knocked out in his career, which has included many fights vs. boxers much bigger and stronger than Khan. It's tough to envision Khan - who is fighting at middleweight for the first time in his career after spending his entire career at junior welterweight and welterweight - posing a threat to Canelo in terms of punching power.

On Cinco de Mayo weekend in Las Vegas, the crowd at the new T-Mobile Arena will be decidedly pro-Canelo, which could influence the fight inside the ring (i.e., inspiration for Canelo to fight well in front of a largely Mexican/Mexican-American crowd) and the judging outside the ring. Judges' scorecards in Canelo fights have tended to strongly favor Canelo - even in fights considered close by the general public. (See the scoring in Canelo's recent competitive fights vs. Cotto, Lara, and Austin Trout as examples.) Even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw; so if this fight ends up being much more competitive than expected (which is highly possible given Khan's outstanding offensive skill and advantage in speed) don't be at all surprised to see the fight still scored comfortably for Canelo. 

Why Amir Khan will win

Despite the clear strength and size discrepancies, Khan does have some advantages over Canelo which could lead to an upset.

Khan is a very gifted offensive fighter with some of the fastest hands in boxing. He is considered by many to be the more technically skilled boxer in this matchup and enters tonight's fight vs. Canelo with a clear hand and foot speed advantage. Khan does have a well documented history of chin problems - 2 of his 3 losses have come via early round KO to fighters who were considered significant underdogs - but his defensive discipline and movement appear to have at least improved a bit in the 3.5 years he's trained under Virgil Hunter. If Khan can move intelligently and maintain range vs. Canelo through 12 rounds, he has a strong chance of outboxing Canelo with his speed and winning the fight on points.

Khan has arguably never been outboxed in his professional career, with all of his losses coming by either early round KO (Breidis Prescott, Danny Garcia) or by a very controversial split decision which included multiple questionable point deductions (Lamont Peterson). If Khan keeps the fight outside at a manageable distance, I'd expect the generally high-output, jab-happy Khan to outwork the relatively low-output, patient Canelo with his advantages in speed, reach (Khan possesses a slight 1/2" reach advantage), and skill.

Like Canelo, Khan is also an accurate puncher who attacks the body very well; Canelo has experienced stamina issues in the past and is prone to taking stretches of rounds off as a pacing mechanism so if Khan can effectively attack Canelo's body, he could weaken Canelo's punching power in the later rounds, where many are expecting Canelo to catch up to Khan and knock him out.

As an experienced and (arguably) more skilled boxer, no one should be surprised if there are large stretches of tonight's fight where Khan flat-out outboxes Canelo - especially in the early rounds. Canelo's defense has improved in recent fights but an ultra-quick offensive talent like Khan likely won't find it too difficult (as a comparatively quick Mayweather didn't) in spots to land punches vs. a somewhat flat-footed Canelo.

Although no longer undefeated or considered a top 5 pound-for-pound boxer (as he was a few years ago when he was a unified junior welterweight champion and defended his title five times over the course of two years), at age 29 Khan is still in his prime and still one of the best offensive fighters in the sport. Khan has nearly always jumped out to wide early leads due to his unique combination of skill and speed; the question in this fight is simply whether he (and his very questionable chin) will be able to elude danger for a full 12 rounds vs. a bigger, stronger, top-level power puncher in Canelo - especially given that he's jumped up two weight classes and fighting for the first time as a middleweight.

Win or lose, Khan always fights with tremendous heart and determination (though this is sometimes to his detriment, as clearly seen in the fights he's lost by KO). Tonight's fight is by far the biggest of Khan's career - it's his first PPV fight, biggest payday, and first fight where he's coming in as the underdog so everyone watching should expect an extremely focused, highly determined Khan in the ring Saturday night. 

Prefight Analysis

If chin and size weren't an issue, I'd probably take Khan to win this fight.

I generally agree with the sentiment that Khan has never been outboxed and think that, while Canelo's hand speed is underrated, Khan should be able to consistently beat Canelo to the punch and stay out of range vs. the relatively slow-footed Canelo and his dangerous punching power. Canelo has sometimes had trouble cutting off the ring vs. more mobile opponents; there's a good possibility he'll have similar problems vs. Khan, who is likely the fastest opponent he's ever faced. 

Khan's defensive deficiencies notwithstanding, if Khan stays out of the corner of the ring (where he is at much greater risk of getting pummeled) and picks the right spots to throw his quick combinations he can outwork and outpoint the at times low-volume and overly patient Canelo. Again, the question would be how much success Khan will have eluding Canelo's pressure and accurate punching power for 12 rounds.

Though I believe Khan to be an elite offensive fighter with overall better skills than Canelo, there are several reasons why I strongly favor Canelo to win this fight. Firstly, the size disparity will be too much for Khan to overcome. Khan is moving up two weight classes to fight for the first time as a middleweight; while the weight jump is effectively only eight pounds (147 lbs to 155 lbs), there is expected to be a wide size discrepancy between Khan and the naturally bigger Canelo (who typically balloons to well over 170 lbs) on fight night. Canelo will be (by far) the biggest fighter and strongest puncher Khan has ever fought, while it is doubtful Khan's solid power at 147 lbs will translate well at the higher weight class vs. a fighter in Canelo who has already proven his chin vs. bigger fighters than Khan. There is also a question of how Khan's speed - his primary advantage in the fight - will be affected by the higher weight.

Secondly Khan's chin will likely mot be able to elude Canelo - one of the more accurate and efficient punchers in the sport - for 12 rounds. Khan has been knocked out in early rounds vs. lesser punchers at junior welterweight (140 lbs) and welterweight (147 lbs); there's little reason to think Khan won't suffer the same - or even a worse - fate vs. a bigger, stronger power puncher in Canelo. Khan's defense does appear to have improved a bit in his 3.5 years under trainer Virgil Hunter (e.g., he's decreased exposure to his chin by staying off the ropes more and spending less time inside throwing the multi-punch combinations that put him in poor defensive positions) but it should also be noted that Khan's chin hasn't really been tested in recent fights - he hasn't faced a good puncher since fighting Julio Diaz four fights ago in 2013; Khan won a close decision in that fight but Diaz did score a 4th round knockdown.

Sure, Canelo has had difficulty with faster fighters in the recent past, most notably Mayweather and Lara, but Mayweather is one of the best defensive fighters in the history of the sport and Lara is one of the best defensive fighters today. Both Mayweather and Lara are elite, high IQ boxers who understanding spacing and were able to elude Canelo with their length and vertical movement even while at close range. Khan is actually faster than both Mayweather and Lara but does not move as well or have the defensive IQ of either fighter. Khan still has issues with staying inside a bit too long and still has subpar upper body movement, meaning he'll likely be easier to hit when Canelo (inevitably) catches up to him. In recent fights, Khan has sometimes been able to avoid pressure by clinching or pushing off on his opponents - it will be much tougher to do this vs. a bigger opponent in Canelo.

In his most recent fight, Khan surprisingly even had issues defensively vs. the soft-punching Chris Algieri at welterweight so tough to see Khan not having a much worse time of it vs. one of the better punchers in the sport.

Even if Khan is somehow able to maintain distance vs. Canelo and box effectively with him for 12 rounds, there is still the issue of whether Khan will get a fair score as the "B-side" of the boxing promotion on Cinco De Mayo weekend in front of a largely Mexican/Mexican-American crowd. Khan throws a lot of punches and could outwork the typically low-volume Canelo but - fair or not - Canelo has a judge-friendly style due largely to his aggression and tendency to land clean, accurate power punches. So even if Khan outboxes Canelo (which is a possibility), there is a decent chance Canelo still gets the decision.

But given Khan's size deficiency, chin issues, and fundamental defensive flaws, I don't see this fight going 12 rounds anyway. I expect Canelo to eventually figure out Khan's timing, catch up to him in the mid to late rounds, and score a TKO/KO victory vs. an opponent who's perhaps bit off a bit more than he can chew by moving up to middleweight to fight Canelo.

Prediction: Canelo by TKO/KO (1.5 units)

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Garcia vs. Guerrero: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Danny Garcia (31-0, 18 KOs) vs. Robert Guerrero (33-3-1, 18 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: January 23, 2016
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC Welterweight title (recently vacated by Floyd Mayweather Jr.)
TV: Fox
Line: Garcia -1000, Guerrero +800 (5 Dimes, 1/23/16)
Purse: Garcia: $1.5 million, Guerrero: $1.2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #8 ranked welterweight; was Ring Magazine junior welterweight champion prior to moving up to welterweight, Guerrero: Not ranked (#6 ranked welterweight by WBC)
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Guerrero: Southpaw
Referee: Jack Reiss

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Garcia opened in late December of last year as a solid -825 favorite, with Guerrero as a 4.75-1 (+475) underdog. Betting has fluctuated since then but for the most part has been with the younger, undefeated Garcia, who is currently a -1000 favorite, with Guerrero priced as an 8-1 (+800) underdog.

Why Danny Garcia will win

On paper this could be an easy fight for Garcia. He is an undefeated former junior welterweight champion with power and is in the prime of his career facing an older, very battle worn fighter in Guerrero - who is just 2-2 in his last four fights. Each of Guerrero's last three fights have been wars and he was knocked down in the most recent two of those fights (vs. Aaron Martinez and Keith Thurman). 

Garcia is a patient and poised counterpuncher who should be able to capitalize on the fact that Guerrero's reflexes and defensive skills appear to have waned with age and the wear and tear of those recent fights (as evidenced by the fact that Guerrero barely won a split decision as a 40-1 favorite in his last fight vs. Martinez, which included getting knocked down early by an opponent in Martinez who has only won 4 of his 25 career fights by TKO/KO). Garcia has generally had problems with fighters who move well and can box from distance but Guerrero, despite having the ability to box from the outside, is a brawler at heart and will likely stand right in front of Danny for large portions of the fight.

In terms of experience, Garcia has been criticized for title defenses vs. questionable opponents but his overall resume is pretty solid, having beaten quality opponents such as Lucas Matthysse, Lamont Peterson, Amir Khan, Erik Morales (twice), and Zab Judah. Garcia has actually been an overachiever in his (thus far perfect) career, decisively winning fights even when he came in as a clear underdog (as was the case when he fought Matthysse and Khan, who were among the most feared and avoided fighters in boxing at the times Garcia fought them).

Garcia has never been knocked down or knocked out as a pro so it would be tough to imagine Guerrero - especially at this point of his career - affecting the course of this fight with his power. (Guerrero hasn't knocked down an opponent since his fight vs. Andre Berto in November 2012.)

Guerrero on the other hand has been getting hit often and fairly consistently throughout his recent fights; Garcia is a very good offensive fighter who should be able to land power punches - including his left hook which is considered by many one of the best left hooks in boxing -  with little difficulty. Garcia has knocked down his opponent in six out of his last eight fights (with ten knockdowns in those six fights) so it would not be a surprise to see Danny score knockdowns vs. Guerrero and possibly even get the stoppage vs. a past prime (and seemingly rapidly fading) Guerrero.

Why Robert Guerrero will win

Yeah he's a sizable underdog, but we can't forget that Guerrero is a former world champion/interim world champion in four weight divisions (featherweight, super featherweight, lightweight, and welterweight) and just 2.5 years ago was ranked the Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #9 fighter in the world after having gone over seven years without losing a fight. The fact is Guerrero could (and can still) box; from a technical standpoint many would say he actually has better boxing skills than Garcia both from distance and on the inside.   

Guerrero is a crafty, technically skilled southpaw who still poses a challenge even for A-level opponents with his experience, toughness, and versatile inside/outside boxing abilities. The only clear losses in Guerrero's career were against Keith Thurman and recently retired pound-for-pound king Floyd Mayweather Jr. - two A-level fighters who move well; Garcia is not as skilled or mobile as either of the two. Guerrero is the much more experienced inside fighter so could have a tactical advantage in a brawl (and most recent Guerrero fights have devolved into brawls), but Guerrero could also give Garcia problems if he stays on his feet and boxes from the outside, a style which has given Garcia problems in multiple recent fights (including his recent controversial decisions vs. Peterson and Mauricio Herrera).

It's important to note that Guerrero has had six fights over the last three years at welterweight (where he was an interim world welterweight champion), whereas this will only be Garcia's second fight as a true 147-pound welterweight after spending the majority of his pro career at junior welterweight.

A third generation Mexican-American, Guerrero will be fighting tonight in his home state of California and - with the number of Mexican-Americans and Mexicans expected to be in attendance in downtown Los Angeles - he will likely be the strong crowd favorite.

If Guerrero can maintain a high punch output vs. an often patient Garcia and his chin holds up, the opportunity is there for an upset - especially if he can neutralize Garcia's power by staying inside and pushing the fight towards a brawl. This is a winnable fight for Guerrero if he fights with his head and can somehow tap into the energy and determination he fought with in his prime just a few years ago.

Prefight Analysis

If this was a prime Robert Guerrero fighting Danny Garcia I would take Guerrero in this fight without too much thought, even at less favorable odds. Prime Guerrero was an underrated fighter who could outbox you from the outside with his jab, above average reach, and foot movement but was also adept at smothering from close range and outworking his opponents inside. Guerrero is the more experienced welterweight who overall probably still has a higher boxing IQ and slightly better boxing skills than the younger, more athletic Garcia. At his best, Guerrero fights with a relentless determination that would be tough for a typically laid-back fighter like Garcia to match over the course of 12 rounds.

But I don't see the current version of Guerrero winning this fight. Guerrero has regressed defensively and noticeably slowed in recent fights, to the point where he had to go to war to win competitive decisions vs. opponents who were wide underdogs (see the aforementioned matchup withMartinez and his June 2014 decision victory vs. Yoshihiro Kamegai). Guerrero endured quite a bit of punishment in these fights vs. lesser opponents (in addition to getting pummeled in a recent wide unanimous decision loss to Thurman); there is a good chance he will endure similar - if not greater - punishment at the hands of Garcia, a legitimate top 15-20 pound-for-pound boxer with power who is in the prime of his career.

Garcia's dangerous power combined with Guerrero's seemingly faded defensive skills should give Danny a chance to win this fight by stoppage but I think Guerrero's proven toughness (he's a resilient  guy who's never come closed to being stopped in his career) and the fact that Danny will be fighting at 147 lbs for only the second time in his career makes me lean towards Garcia by decision as the best bet as I think Guerrero will find a way to survive the 12 rounds.

Another point to consider here is that as the "A-side" fighter in this matchup backed by prominent (and highly influential) boxing manager Al Haymon, there is a good chance that a close fight here will be scored for the more politically-connected Garcia (see Garcia's highly controversial wins vs. Peterson and Herrera as previous examples of questionable scoring in Garcia fights). Garcia is a young, undefeated fighter with a potentially lucrative future in major network boxing (including possible PPV fights); it is certainly in Haymon and other network boxing executives' interest to protect Garcia's marketability as an elite fighter.

In any case, I expect this to be an entertaining fight - pretty good matchup of offensive-minded boxers who won't back down - and should be a nice addition to the Mexico vs. Puerto Rico rivalry (despite both fighters being American born).

Prediction: Garcia by decision (1 unit)

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