Saturday, September 12, 2015

Mayweather vs. Berto: prefight analysis and betting prediction



Fight: Floyd Mayweather Jr. (48-0, 26 KOs) vs. Andre Berto (30-3, 23 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 12, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World and WBA Super World Welterweight titles
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Mayweather -2400, Berto +1800 (5 Dimes, 9/12/15)
Purse: Mayweather: $32 million, Berto: $4 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Mayweather: #1 ranked pound-for-poundRing Magazine welterweight champion, Berto: Not ranked
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, Berto: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Mayweather opened in late July as a massive -7500 (1-75) favorite, with Berto initially listed as a 25-1 underdog. Public betting has since trended heavily in favor of Berto - likely because the initial odds were poor for potential Mayweather bettors (e.g., would have to bet $75 on Mayweather just to win $1), while 25-1 for a puncher like Berto may have been appealing to some. In the first few days of fight week, however, most of the betting has been on Mayweather. Mayweather is currently a strong -2400 favorite, with Berto as a +1800 (18-1) underdog.

Why Floyd Mayweather will win


By most objective measures, this fight is a clear mismatch. Mayweather is undefeated, widely considered the best boxer pound-for-pound in the sport and of this generation facing a fighter in Berto who is 3-3 in his last six fights and arguably not even one of the top 20 welterweights in the world currently.

Mayweather - possibly the most accurate and efficient fighter in the history of the sport - is vastly superior to the defensively suspect Berto in terms of skill and boxing IQ. Mayweather is expected to land cleanly and consistently as the fight progresses while there's a good chance Berto will have trouble getting into range vs. the longer, more mobile Mayweather.

Mayweather has a clear experience advantage over Berto; in his career he's already beaten at least a dozen boxers who were better fighters than Berto (including arguably every fighter he's fought since 2005) and has decisively beaten 2 out of the 3 fighters Berto has lost to (Robert Guerrero and Victor Ortiz). Berto on the other hand, has never beaten a A or even a B+-level fighter, with his best win coming in a closely contested matchup vs. Luis Collazo over five years ago.

Mayweather is a defensively gifted fighter who has the foot speed, reach advantage (4"), and stamina to elude Berto's dangerous combination of power and speed the same way he's eluded previous opponents who had more power and speed than Berto has. Berto is over six years younger than Mayweather but, at 31 years old and after multiple debilitating injuries (including a right shoulder injury that could have been career ending), his best years may be behind him. Berto has been a seemingly more cautious fighter since the shoulder injury a couple years ago, which he can't afford to be in tonight's fight vs. Floyd.

Berto did win his last fight via 6th round TKO in March vs. a respectable opponent in Josesito Lopez, but was actually behind on two out of the three judges' scorecards at the time of stoppage.

Lastly Mayweather, a Las Vegas resident, is fighting at home in the MGM Grand Garden Arena for the 12th consecutive time in front of a Mayweather-friendly referee (Kenny Bayless) on a card promoted by his promotional company (Mayweather Promotions) and in front of a crowd which may actually be pro-Mayweather (which is uncharacteristic for Mayweather fights) considering the relatively undistinguished opponent he's facing.

Why Andre Berto will win


A former two-time welterweight champion and current interim WBA welterweight champion, Berto is a puncher with the classic "puncher's chance." At 32 years old (6.5 years younger than Mayweather), he still actually has quite a bit of the explosive speed and power in both hands that he had five years ago as an undefeated (27-0) world champion. Berto is the naturally bigger and stronger fighter, possesses the mobility to stalk Mayweather, and is a good ambush-style fighter when he is on his game.

Berto is a tough competitor who is known for high action fights. He'll likely be willing to exchange with Mayweather and take the risks necessary to pull off the upset, even if it means exposing himself to numerous clean Mayweather counterpunches and a possible loss by stoppage.

Berto won't win this fight by decision (i.e., by outboxing the supremely-skilled Mayweather); he'll almost surely have to win this fight by stopping Mayweather. But if Berto - who has the strength and hand speed to match Mayweather - can stay busy and apply brute pressure on Floyd, he is more than capable of landing one of his patented power shots (most notably his right uppercut) to change the course of a fight expected to be dictated by Mayweather. Berto does have a solid left jab which, if used effectively, can be used to set up additional lines of attack vs. a typically risk-averse, retreating Mayweather. Mayweather is obviously still an elite fighter, but - at 38 - he's several years past his prime and is not as mobile as he once was; Berto may be capable of staying in front of Mayweather and applying the pressure necessary to at least make Floyd uncomfortable (e.g., Marcos Maidana in his first fight with Floyd, Ricky Hatton in the early rounds of his fight with Floyd).

Berto's current trainer, Virgil Hunter, is an excellent motivator who will at minimum have Berto mentally prepared to pull off what would be one of the biggest upsets in boxing history.

Prefight Analysis


Honestly, I don't see Berto being competitive in this fight. Yes, he has a "puncher's chance," but so did Pacquiao, Maidana, Canelo, and many of the other fighters Mayweather has fought over the past decade or so. But they all lost. And Berto - especially at this point in his career with the injuries and being 3-3 in his last 6 fights - isn't as good as *any* of the those other boxers Mayweather has fought over the past ten years.

Berto is literally a handpicked opponent for Mayweather in a fight that Mayweather is promoting as his last fight. Mayweather is, by a very wide margin, the more skilled, experienced fighter who possesses both the length and foot speed to stay out of range vs. Berto's inevitable pressure and the accuracy to punish the defensively deficient Berto with counterpunching over the entirety of the fight.

Unless Berto catches Mayweather with something early I don't see him being competitive, as he certainly won't outbox Floyd over 12 rounds; he doesn't cut the ring off as well as other pressure fighters who've fought Floyd like Maidana and Cotto, who at least had some limited success pressuring him in spots.

In my opinion, the only question in tonight's fight is whether Mayweather wins the fight by decision or by stoppage. There has been a lot of talk from boxing analysts - and even some from Mayweather himself - of Floyd going out with a stoppage victory in what is purportedly his last fight. But Mayweather has promised excitement and possible stoppages in previous recent fights only to resort to the risk-averse, defensive style that has served him well for most of his career.

The fact of the matter is, Mayweather is 38 years old and, other than a cheap (though perfectly legal) shot vs. Victor Ortiz four years ago when Ortiz had his guard down, Mayweather hasn't stopped anyone in nearly eight years. Mayweather is also a relatively low-volume puncher with notoriously brittle hands who is facing a guy in Berto who is actually bigger and stronger than he is.

Yes, a Mayweather victory by TKO/KO is possible due to the wide skill disparity in this matchup and Berto's defensive inadequacies, but I think given Mayweather's history of fighting conservatively and not exposing himself to significant risk, there is much more value in betting on Mayweather to win by (wide) decision.

Depending on the prices you can find, I feel that the best bet on this fight is Mayweather by unanimous decision, followed by Mayweather by 12-round decision. (I bet Mayweather by unanimous decision yesterday on 5Dimes at -145 but feel this bet actually has solid value up to -200.)

Prediction: Mayweather by unanimous decision (1 unit)


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Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Jack vs. Groves: prefight analysis and betting prediction



Fight: Badou Jack (19-1-1, 12 KOs) vs. George Groves (21-2, 16 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 12, 2015
Weight class: Super Middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Super Middleweight title
TV: Showtime PPV (Mayweather vs. Berto undercard)
Line: Jack +115, Groves -135 (5 Dimes, 9/8/15)
Purse: Jack: $500,000, Groves: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Jack: #6 ranked super middleweight, Groves: #3 ranked super middleweight
Style: Jack: Orthodox, Groves: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Groves opened in early August as the -180 favorite, with Jack as the +150 underdog. Public betting has since trended in favor of Jack - likely because he is coming off the best win of his career in winning a super middleweight title as a 4-1 underdog vs. then undefeated champion Anthony Dirrell and also probably because he is the more well-known name to the American betting public, fighting numerous times on Showtime under #1 pound-for-pound fighter Floyd Mayweather, Jr.'s boxing promotional firm, Mayweather Promotions. Groves is currently now only a -135 favorite, with Jack being only a +115 underdog.

Why Badou Jack will win


Jack is the current WBC World Super Middleweight champion. Jack is high in confidence after his last fight in April, a solid majority decision victory over then undefeated and WBC World Super Middleweight champion Anthony Dirrell. The victory was one of the better performances of Jack's career and is a strong sign Jack has fully recovered from his embarrassing 1st round TKO loss last year vs. journeyman Derek Edwards, who was a 14-1 underdog going into the fight. (The loss was the first and only loss of Jack's career.)

Jack has looked good in recent fights while Groves hasn't looked the same (in particular on the defensive end) since his two recent TKO losses to Carl Froch, looking less than impressive in his wins vs. relatively unknown journeymen Christopher Rebrasse and Denis Douglin.

Jack is a durable fighter while Groves has faded in the later rounds of some of his recent fights, including his two fights vs. Froch and his September 2014 fight vs. Rebrasse; Jack could conceivably outwork a tired Groves in the middle to later rounds in this fight similar to the way he outworked Dirrell in the later rounds of his most recent fight.

Jack is a solid, come-forward fighter with decent power. He pops a good jab and counters well with hooks which will be key vs. an aggressive - and at times defensively irresponsible - Groves.

Lastly, Jack is the more "politically connected" fighter in this matchup as he's promoted by Floyd Mayweather under Floyd's Mayweather Promotions banner and is arguably the best fighter promoted by Mayweather. Mayweather Promotions is promoting most of the featured fighters on the Mayweather/Berto undercard and I'd expect the close fights on the undercard to be at least slightly biased in favor fighters promoted by Mayweather. Jack also currently resides in and fights out of Las Vegas, while this is only Groves' third fight in the United States.

Why George Groves will win


Groves is the better boxer. Groves has the superior technical skills, power, hand and foot speed, overall athleticism, and is the more talented fighter. Groves is a classic boxer-puncher with notable power in both hands, knocking his opponents out at a 76% TKO/KO rate; Jack suffered a 1st round TKO loss just last year to a lesser skilled opponent with less power. Jack doesn't move particularly well and has a questionable chin; given the TKO loss to Edwards, losing by TKO/KO to Groves is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Despite being the younger fighter (by 4 years), the 27-year old Groves has a significant advantage in big fight experience over Jack, having fought top-level fighters such as Carl Froch (twice), James DeGale, and Glen Johnson. In May 2011, Groves beat current IBF Super Middleweight champion and former 2008 Olympic gold medalist DeGale by majority decision in the most impressive victory of his career. (This remains the only loss of DeGale's career.) By comparison, the only top-level fighter on Jack's resume is Anthony Dirrell.

Groves's two TKO losses to Carl Froch are the only losses of his career. Both were losses where Groves was arguably outboxing Froch before getting stopped in the later rounds. Jack doesn't have nearly the KO power Froch had so likely isn't a threat to KO Groves late like Froch did.

Prefight Analysis


Groves hasn't looked as good as expected in his recent fights since his two TKO losses to Froch, employing a more high-volume, aggressive strategy which allowed him to get countered cleanly in spots vs. much lesser fighters. A similar high punch volume strategy may not work vs. Jack - a strong, solid fighter who throws counter hooks well and possesses a good scoring jab which he may use in combination with his slight length advantage to control distance. Jack is a confident fighter riding high off the best win of his career last April vs. Dirrell. He's a more durable fighter than Groves (who has a history of waning in the later rounds) and I think there's a decent change that, in his adopted hometown of Las Vegas, he scores an upset victory by outworking Groves in the middle and later rounds the same way he outworked Dirrell after trailing on the scorecards early in that fight.

With this said, I think too many practical factors favor Groves to not to pick him to win the fight. Groves is the more talented fighter with the better skills, power, hand speed, and foot movement. He is the more experienced fighter who has fought on the big stage before (including in front of approximately 80,000 people at Wembley Stadium in his 2nd fight with Froch) vs. top-level opponents. Groves has previously defeated more accomplished opponents than Jack, namely James DeGale, a former Olympic gold medalist who has top 10-15 pound-for-pound talent. Groves, a good power puncher with a 76% TKO/KO rate, has the power to hurt a relatively flat-footed Jack early, and I think there is a reasonable chance he could win this fight by stoppage.

I think that despite Groves's recent unimpressive performances vs. lesser opponents and Jack's recent title victory momentum, Groves's clear skill and experience advantages should carry him to victory vs. Jack in the main event of the Mayweather/Berto undercard. Jack has never fought an opponent with Groves's combination of talent, skill, and power and I think this will show under the pressure of the big stage in Vegas. Groves is highly capable of winning this fight by stoppage  (likely early as opposed to late), though I think there is also a good chance he wins this fight by decision; so I think Groves simply to win at -135 is the best bet in this matchup.

Prediction: Groves to win (1 unit)


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