Canelo vs. Rocky Fielding: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (50-1-2 34 KOs) vs. Rocky Fielding (27-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 15, 2018
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBA (Regular) World Super middleweight title
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line: Alvarez: -1600, Fielding: +1050 (5 Dimes, 12/14/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #3 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion [Alvarez is not ranked at super middleweight], Fielding: #9 ranked super middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Fielding: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

On American soil, Canelo Alvarez is (by far) the top PPV attraction in boxing today, with his last three fights over the past year and a half - his two most recent vs. Gennady Golovkin and another in May 2017 vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. - each selling over 1 million PPV buys. (Canelo's fights vs. Golovkin and Chavez Jr. had the highest PPV buy rates for boxing matches not involving Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson in 2002.)

But this past October, Canelo (supported by his promoter - the Oscar De La Hoya-backed Golden Boy Promotions) exited the traditional PPV model - which reportedly earned him well over $20 million for each of the aforementioned fights - to sign a 5-year, 11-fight contract worth at least $365 million with sports streaming service DAZN, the largest contract for a single athlete in sports history. Canelo's fight this Saturday vs. WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding will be Canelo's first fight since signing that contract and will be the first PPV-level fight DAZN has ever produced in the United States.

Right now, Canelo is on top of the boxing world. He's arguably the most popular fighter in the sport. He's coming off of the most high profile, biggest fight of the year and what was by far the biggest win of his career in his majority decision upset victory over at-the-time undefeated and Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound-ranked unified middleweight champion Golovkin - a fight in which Canelo secured his status as a Mexican boxing legend and future first ballot hall-of-famer. Although the scoring of the fight was highly controversial - most observers felt the fight was either a draw or that Canelo lost a close decision - Canelo's impressive performance largely cooled previous rampant suspicions of illegal performance-enhancing drug use by the Mexican fighter as he tested clean numerous times in the days and weeks leading up to the fight.

At just 28 years old, Canelo is still in the middle of his prime and has arguably still not yet even reached his peak as - including even both fights vs. Golovkin -  Canelo has improved with each fight since his lone loss in 2013 to Floyd Mayweather Jr. and is still seemingly getting better. Canelo is currently the Ring Magazine #3 ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world but on Saturday night will make his claim as #1 as he moves up to super middleweight to fight at 168 lbs for the first time in his career in an attempt to become the fifth Mexican fighter win a major world title in at least 3 weight divisions (Julio Cesar Chavez Sr., Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Jorge Arce).

Canelo will be making his debut on DAZN this Saturday night at Madison Square Garden vs. current WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding. Rocky is a British fighter who will be making his first defense of his super middleweight title after upsetting formerly undefeated champion Tyron Zeuge by 5th-round TKO in Zeuge's home country of Germany this past July. (Rocky entered the fight vs. Zeuge at as high as a 5-1 underdog.)

Rocky lacks experience, having not fought many top-level boxers other than Callum Smith - who he lost to in 2015 by 1st-round TKO. But since the loss to Smith - the only loss of his career - Rocky has been on a 3-year, 6-fight winning streak which included the title win over Zeuge and a win over well-respected British fighter John Ryder. Rocky, who has fought multiple times in his career as high as light heavyweight (178 lbs), has a 4.5" reach advantage over Canelo and is also expected to come into Saturday night's fight with a considerable size advantage.

Canelo vs. Rocky will be Canelo's first fight in New York City (and on the entire East Coast after several fights in the U.S. in Las Vegas, Texas, and Los Angeles) and will be Rocky's first fight outside of Europe (and only his second fight outside of his home country of England).

It's worth noting that Saturday night's fight is for the WBA "Regular" super middleweight championship. The WBA "Super" super middleweight championship is currently held by Callum Smith (who - as noted above - beat Fielding in 2015 by 1st-round TKO). Smith beat George Groves (by 7th-round KO) this past September in the World Boxing Super Series final to win the "Super" version of the WBA super middleweight championship.

Prefight Analysis

As an overwhelming (1-16) favorite who just two months ago signed the richest contract in the history of sports, it should be no surprise that I'm going with Canelo to win Saturday night's fight (and win convincingly).

But Rocky could make this fight tougher than expected. As a natural super middleweight who's even spent some of his career as a light heavyweight, Rocky will come into this fight with an advantage in size combined with respectable enough power to make things tough for Canelo, particularly in the early rounds. (With a 52% TKO/KO percentage, Rocky has knocked out most of the opponents he's faced - all of whom were bigger than Canelo in terms of size.) Rocky has above average combination punching skills and won't be afraid to trade punches with a smaller Canelo. For a super middleweight, Rocky moves well and has the ability to box while backing up, which should open up counterpunching opportunities when Canelo comes forward. Rocky will also come into Saturday's fight with a significant (4.5") reach advantage which - if combined with effective enough movement - could stymie Canelo's aggression.

Note that this is the 3rd consecutive week where the underdog in a high-profile fight will come into the ring with a size, height (Rocky is listed at 6'1" compared to Canelo at 5'8"), and reach advantage, complimented with an ability to move well. (Jose Pedraza last week vs. Vasyl Lomachenko and Tyson Fury the week before that vs. Deontay Wilder.) These qualities enabled the underdog in each of these fights to go the 12-round distance despite a loss by knockout being regarded as the most likely outcome.

Although limited athletically, Rocky has a versatile skill set and the fact is he did just a few months ago beat a heavily favored, undefeated world champion in that champion's home country to win his first title. Saturday night will be (by far) the biggest fight of Rocky's career and possibly even the most important night of his whole life - there is little question he will come to fight and lay it all on the line. Last year, Canelo looked impressive at a 164.5 lb cachet in winning a wide unanimous decision victory vs. a more talented fighter than Rocky in Chavez Jr. (none of the three judges even gave Chavez Jr. a single round). But Rocky is a bigger, tougher, more aggressive fighter than Chavez Jr. and will almost certainly put forth a greater effort than Chavez Jr. did. It shouldn't be much of a surprise at all if Rocky's size and reach in particular pose a much bigger problem than Canelo - who has fought as small as 140 lbs (super lightweight) early on in his career - ever anticipated.

But at the end of the day, Rocky I think lacks the athleticism and knockout power of elite super middleweights like Callum Smith and Gilberto Ramirez to compete with Canelo over 12 rounds. There's too much of a skill and hand speed discrepancy here - Rocky is the bigger fighter but I see Canelo wearing Rocky down and picking him apart with quick, accurate punch combinations in a similar fashion to how he picked apart Chavez Jr., who was bigger and had a better chin than Rocky. Rocky will throw more punches than Chavez Jr. did, but I only see that making Rocky - who has a habit of keeping his hands down after throwing punch combinations - even more susceptible to clean counterpunching.

Although only 28 years old, Canelo has the advantage of a wealth of experience vs. elite opponents and has fought against just about every style of fighter possible. Rocky is versatile, but is a straightforward,  British domestic-level boxer lacking the elite-level skills of fighters like Erislandy Lara, Mayweather, and Golovkin that have given Canelo problems in previous fights.

Rocky doesn't have anything that Canelo hasn't already seen; his size, reach, and movement could be a challenge for Canelo in the early rounds but his lack of athleticism, speed, and real knockout power should make it not too difficult for Canelo to adjust and figure out the timing of the British champion both offensively and defensively.

I see Canelo being somewhat cautious and patient early vs. a bigger super middleweight, but like him to either stop Rocky in the later rounds or win a wide unanimous decision. While I think a stoppage might be slightly more likely, I think both outcomes have a similar chance of occurring so will be placing an equal stake on each outcome. I will be attending this fight and looking forward to the action and seeing in person how well DAZN does with their first big fight in the United States!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Canelo by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 (.5 unit) 
2) Canelo by unanimous decision (.5 unit) 

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Golovkin vs. Jacobs: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Gennady Golovkin (36-0, 33 KOs) vs. Daniel Jacobs (32-1, 29 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: March 18, 2017
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World middleweight, WBA Super World middleweight, and IBF World middleweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Golovkin -825, Jacobs +650 (5 Dimes, 3/17/17)
Purse: Golovkin: $2.5 million, Jacobs: $1.75 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin: #4 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked middleweight, Jacobs: #2 ranked middleweight
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Jacobs: Orthodox
Referee: Charlie Fitch (other notable fights: Lemieux vs. Stevens, Froch vs. Groves I, Golovkin vs. Proksa)

Why you should watch this fight

This is a fight between the two best middleweight boxers in the world - who also happen to be two of the best knockout artists in the sport - that is virtually guaranteed to be an action-packed matchup. Saturday night will be a middleweight title unification bout between the undefeated WBA (Super), WBC, and IBF middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin - arguably the top fighter in boxing pound-for-pound - vs. WBA (Regular) middleweight champion Daniel Jacobs - a 32-1 fighter who hasn't lost a fight in over 6.5 years and is by far Golovkin's toughest middleweight opponent to date.

The winner of this fight will be the unified WBA, WBC, and IBF middleweight champion of the world and will be well on his way to becoming the first undisputed middleweight champion in over a decade (Jermain Taylor, 2006), pending a possible fight with undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders later this year.

Golovkin has won 33 out of his 36 professional fights - including his last 23(!) fights - by stoppage for a KO% of 92%, the highest KO% in middleweight boxing history. Every fight scheduled for longer than 8 rounds in Golovkin's professional career (10 or 12 rounds) has ended in stoppage. But Jacobs is a top-level boxer who has elite punching power in his own right, having won 29 out of his 33 professional fights - including his last 12 fights - by stoppage for a very impressive KO% of 88%. Jacobs - who just five years ago survived a rare form of bone cancer (which at one point left him unable to walk) to win a middleweight title in 2014 - will be fighting in his hometown of New York City. where he is 9-0 as a fighter (with all 9 of those victories coming via early-round stoppage).

Given the combination of world-class boxing skills and elite knockout power possessed by both fighters, this should be an electric one while it lasts.

The undercard of this fight features undefeated, current Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound boxer Roman "Chocolatito" Gonzalez, a four-weight division champion who will be defending his super flyweight championship vs. Thai fighter Wisaksil Wangek.

Prefight Analysis

Many would consider Danny Jacobs to be a live underdog in this fight, especially given the sizable (+650) odds on him to upset Golovkin. He's won 12 straight fights - all by TKO/KO - and has looked impressive in most of those fights. He's a big middleweight with a decent size advantage over Gennady. Jacobs has faster hands and faster feet than Golovkin, and is one of the very few middleweights out there with the punching power to stop him. Jacobs is a versatile fighter with the skills to fight Golovkin from close range - a tactic which may be necessary to mitigate Golovkin's ability to generate punching power from distance - but also has the skills to box on his feet. Given Jacob's 3" reach advantage in this matchup, he may have some success boxing Golovkin from distance.

Jacobs is (perhaps by far) Golovkin's toughest opponent to date so you can't completely write him off, especially given that he will be fighting in front of a lot of friendly supporters in his hometown of New York City and the fact that, in life, he has defeated a much tougher opponent than Golovkin in overcoming a rare form of bone cancer that was expected to end his boxing career (and possibly his ability to walk or even his life).

But despite Jacob's advantages, particularly in size and speed, I think his deficit of a questionable chin vs. Golovkin's potentially all-time great punching power will be too much for even a fighter nicknamed the "Miracle Man" to overcome. Jacob's only loss of his professional career came via early-round stoppage vs. Dmitry Pirog, another Soviet boxer who - like Golovkin will attempt to do Saturday night - was able to effectively cut off the ring early and apply pressure vs. a mostly retreating Jacobs (though Jacobs was able to win arguably win three out of the first four rounds on the scorecards). Pirog, now a politician in Russia (his career ended early due to a debilitating back injury), was a highly talented, potentially elite boxer but did not have the skills or punching power of Golovkin.

Jacobs was also knocked down in the first round of his August 2015 fight vs. Sergio Mora, a notoriously feather-fisted puncher who has only 9 wins by TKO/KO in 35 career fights (for a KO% of 26%).

The knockdowns vs. Pirog and Mora don't necessarily prove that Jacobs is weak-chinned, but in assessing an elite pound-for-pound fighter in Golovkin - who has a middleweight-record 92% of his wins (including the last 23 wins) coming via TKO/KO - vs. a skilled but somewhat predictable fighter in Jacobs who has a questionable chin, you'd have to (strongly) favor Golovkin's proven power.

Jacobs has elite power of his own to be sure, but Golovkin has proven to have one of the best - if not the best - chins in boxing, having never been knocked down or knocked out in 386(!) fights as an amateur or pro. Golovkin has already very easily handled a fighter with comparable power to Jacobs (in David Lemieux) and also already easily handled a much more skilled fighter than Jacobs (in his last fight vs. Kell Brook, a fighter many would rate as top 10-15 pound-for-pound). Golovkin has also fought faster, more elusive fighters than Jacobs (see Willie Monroe Jr. as an example), yet had no problems cutting off the ring and catching up to them en route early-round TKO/KO victories.

Golovkin's combination of pressure and skill is special and unmatched in the boxing game right now. There will be quite a few spots in this fight where Golovkin and Jacobs trade punches -  you have to favor Golovkin's impressive power (and ability to generate that power from unpredictable angles) vs. Jacob's questionable chin over Jacob's also elite, if not somewhat straightforward, power vs. Golovkin's seemingly impeccable chin. Only 2 of Golovkin's 33 knockout victims have lasted past 8 rounds: Martin Murray - who had never been knocked down or knocked out in a fight prior to getting knocked down 3 times and stopped in the 11th round in his February 2015 fight vs. Golovkin - and  Kassim Ouma, who was known for having a great chin in his prime. (Ouma was stopped in the 10th round of a close, competitive fight with Golovkin back in June 2011.)

Given this, I think that the best bet on this fight is Golovkin by TKO/KO in the early to mid rounds. But - given that Golovkin has never faced a fighter with Jacob's combination of skill and power and, given the fact that Jacobs is one of the few fighters Golovkin has fought that has a clear size advantage over him, I think it's also worth "hedging" this bet to an extent with a bet on the fight to last under 7.5 rounds. Golovkin will likely respect Jacob's power early (as he did vs. Lemieux) and won't necessarily apply full pressure until he establishes a read on Jacobs; this period of the fight would be Jacob's best chance to jump on Golovkin and land that punch (or combination of punches) that stops Golovkin early (which IMO may be the only way he can win this fight). Note that this "hedge" also wins if Golovkin stops Jacobs early.

I will be betting on Golovkin to win the fight in the first 6 rounds (at approximately +120 odds) but an alternate bet to very strongly consider is to instead bet Golovkin to win in rounds 4-6 as well as Golovkin to win in rounds 7-9. This bet will return roughly 15% more profit than betting on Golovkin to win in the first 6 rounds if Golovkin wins in rounds 4-6, and will return roughly 35% more profit than betting on Golovkin to win in the first 6 rounds if Golovkin wins in rounds 7-9. The downside to this alternative bet is it doesn't cover Golovkin winning within the first 3 rounds, though I suspect Golovkin will fight more cautiously during that period of the fight anyway as he develops his read on Jacobs. (This alternative does, however, cover some of the later rounds of the fight in case the fight lasts a bit longer than expected.)

The combination bet of Golovkin to win in rounds 4-6 and 7-9 may actually be the slightly more prudent bet given Golovkin's anticipated early round strategy, but I'm going with Golovkin to win in the first 6 rounds for simplicity and because I have serious doubts whether Jacob's chin can hold up even through the first three rounds.

In any case, I'll be in New York City for this fight and am looking forward to an electric, post-St. Patrick's Day fight crowd as well as an overall fantastic card, which includes top pound-for-pound fighter Roman "Chocolatito" Gonzalez. Good luck!

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO

Recommended bets: 
1) Golovkin wins in rounds 1-6 (.5 unit)
[or alternative combination bet of Golovkin wins in rounds 4-6 (.25 unit) and Golovkin wins in rounds 7-9 (.25 unit)]
2) Golovkin/Jacobs U 7.5 rounds (.5 unit)

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Golovkin vs. Lemieux: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Gennady Golovkin (33-0, 30 KOs) vs. David Lemieux (34-2, 31 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: October 17, 2015
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF World, IBO World, WBA Super World, and interim WBC World Middleweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Golovkin -1575, Lemieux +1250 (5 Dimes, 10/17/15)
Purse: Golovkin: $2 million, Lemieux: $1.5 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin: #4 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked middleweight, Lemieux: #4 ranked middleweight
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Lemieux: Orthodox
Referee: Steve Willis

Positives for Golovkin
Negatives for Golovkin
Positives for Lemieux
Negatives for Lemieux
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Golovkin

• Current Ring Magazine #4 middleweight and reigning WBA Super and IBO middleweight champion. Undefeated at 33-0 and, with 30 KOs in 33 fights, holds the highest knockout percentage (90.9%) in middleweight history. Has won his last 20 fights by TKO/KO, the most recent 14 of which were middleweight title defenses. Named Ring Magazine fighter of the year in 2013 after four impressive KO victories that year. 
• Offensively gifted boxer who possesses elite KO power in both hands. Golovkin's 90.9% KO percentage (30 KOs in 33 fights) ranks first among all active current and former champions and ranks second overall in championship history. Often generates his power from wide, looping punches thrown from unorthodox angles (which have the dual effect of providing extra leverage on his punches and increasing his unpredictability). Has the potential to go down as one of the great power punchers in the history of the sport. 
• Intelligent pressure fighter who is excellent at using footwork to cut off the ring. Controls distance extremely well and has superb punch timing. Despite being a pressure fighter, Golovkin is also a very patient, efficient boxer who tends not to waste punches. 
•  Mostly known for his outstanding power but is a technically savvy fighter with underrated boxing skill. Golovkin does not have great hand speed but makes up for it with an outstanding jab and methodical, accurate combination punching. Golovkin lands more jabs per round than any other CompuBox-tracked fighter, and other than ultra-aggressive super bantamweight champion Leo Santa Cruz, Golovkin lands more overall punches per round than any other CompuBox-tracked fighter. 
•  Possesses an excellent chin. Golovkin has never been knocked down or knocked out in 383 fights as an amateur and pro. 
• Has an impressive amateur pedigree, with 345 wins (including wins vs. Andre Dirrell, Lucian Bute, and Andy Lee) against only 5 losses. Won a silver medal medal for his native Kazakhstan in the 2004 Summer Olympics in Athens, Greece. 
• Trains with Abel Sanchez, a very underrated trainer who has trained numerous former champions including Terry Norris, Olin Norris, Carlos Baldomir, and Samuel Peter. 
• Will be fighting his fourth fight in nearly three years at Madison Square Garden in New York City. As one of the most popular fighters in the sport with a fan-friendly style, the crowd at Madison Square Garden is expected to be overwhelmingly pro-Golovkin.

Negatives for Golovkin

• Golovkin is fighting likely his toughest opponent to date in Lemieux, a younger fighter who may actually be naturally stronger than Golovkin. Golovkin has never fought a true top-tier talent and is untested vs. Lemieux's combination of power and skill.   
• Does Golovkin have the stamina to fight effectively in later rounds? Out of 33 professional fights, Golovkin has only gone to the 10th round twice in his career and only fought past the 6th round seven other times. 
• While applying pressure vs. his opponents, Golovkin sometimes has shown susceptibility to getting caught with clean counter punches (was caught a few times in his last fight vs. Willie Monroe Jr. and most notably in the 3rd round of his fight vs. July 2014 fight vs. Geale right before knocking him out). Golovkin has a great chin but often focuses more on offense than protecting himself defensively, so at times is open to be hit when he drops his guard. Lemieux is widely considered one of the most dangerous power punchers in the sport and will likely be looking to knock Golovkin out; an upset TKO/KO victory is a very realistic possibility if he can land even one power shot cleanly.
• Golovkin is being promoted as possibly the next big star in boxing but he is 33 years old (over six years younger than Lemieux) and likely is towards the end of the prime of his career. 
• Though known as a pressure fighter, Golovkin is sometimes cautious in the first couple of rounds while adjusting to his opponent's style. By contrast, Lemieux is generally a very fast starter; Lemieux may be able to gain some initial momentum (and perhaps even win the fight early) by jumping on Golovkin from the opening bell.
• Is not quite as good a boxer fighting inside as he is from distance, as shown at times in his January 2013 fight vs. Gabriel Rosado and early in his fight vs. Geale. If the highly aggressive, wild-swinging Lemieux can get inside and turn the fight into a brawl he may have a chance of making the fight competitive.
• While highly accurate and efficient, Golovkin does not possess great speed or quickness, though he will have a slight advantage in both areas vs. Lemieux.

Positives for Lemieux

• Current IBF World middleweight champion. Explosive puncher with legitimate KO power in both hands. Is widely considered one of the best power punchers in the sport, with 31 out of his 34 victories coming via TKO/KO; Lemieux's 86.1% KO ratio is among the highest in boxing. Overall, Lemieux is one of the best offensive fighters in the sport and will always have at least a puncher's chance vs. any opponent.
• Relentless, aggressive puncher who fully commits to most power punches. Despite some wild swinging at times, actually tends to be an accurate puncher with underrated boxing skills. Can generate power both from distance and on the inside (largely due to superior lower body strength) and is a strong finisher once he has his opponent in trouble.   
• Is currently in the prime of his career and appears to have improved (particularly on the defensive end) since losing two consecutive fights in 2011 (the only two losses of his career). Since 2011, Lemieux has won nine straight fights - seven by TKO and the other two by wide unanimous decision. Lemieux was only 22 years old when he suffered the only losses of his career; he has matured and gained experience vs. solid competition since then.
• At 26, Lemieux is the younger fighter by several (over six) years and is arguably naturally stronger than Golovkin. (Golovkin has never faced an opponent with comparable power to his own.) Lemieux is also typically a fast starter who was way ahead early even in his two losses back in 2011; if Lemieux can establish early momentum vs. Golovkin (who is sometimes cautious in the very early rounds), that may be enough to set the stage for an upset TKO/KO victory. 
• Lemieux is a mobile fighter with decent foot speed and quickness; will likely be able to evade Golovkin's attack in spots. 
• Tough, courageous fighter as evidenced by the fact he is one of very few top middleweights actually willing to fight Golovkin.

Negatives for Lemieux

• Lemieux does have two losses in his career - consecutive losses in his hometown of Montreal vs. opponents who entered the fights as substantial underdogs. Lemieux's first loss was an April 2011 7th-round TKO loss to Marco Antonio Rubio (who Golovkin easily defeated last year by 2nd-round KO); his second loss was in December 2011 to Joachim Alcine, who after beating Lemieux would go on to lose his next five fights. 
• Lemieux has shown questionable stamina in previous fights, in particular his two losses where he was worn down in middle and later rounds after jumping out to strong starts. Lemieux has a history of overexpending energy with his aggressive, haymaker style in the early rounds only to tire in later rounds. If Golovkin - who is widely considered to have one of the best chins in boxing (as he has never been knocked down or knocked out in 383 professional and amateur fights) - can withstand Lemieux's attack through the first half of the fight, the second half of the fight could be relatively easy for him; despite Lemieux's high KO% he only has one victory by TKO/KO in his career after the 7th round.  
• Although an underrated boxer, is inferior to Golovkin in terms of boxing skill and IQ. Has a straightforward, somewhat predictable boxing style and generally doesn't make too many adjustments over the course of a fight; one would expect Golovkin to eventually find holes in Lemieux's at times overaggressive, wild-swinging style.   
• Although seemingly improved over the past 3-4 years, Lemieux is still defensively flawed with a questionable chin. As a come-forward pressure fighter, he will at times leave himself open to clean counterpunching, which could be disastrous vs. arguably the best puncher in the sport in Golovkin. Lemieux was knocked down and suffered a TKO loss (via corner throwing in the towel) vs. Rubio; Golovkin is a more skilled boxer than Rubio and certainly possesses the power to look more dominant vs. Lemieux than Rubio did.

Prefight Summary

Tonight's Golovkin vs. Lemieux fight is intriguing as, on one hand, most think this fight is basically a mismatch that Lemieux has very little chance of winning yet, on the other hand, many of those same people think this will be a a can't miss, back-and-forth slugfest.

If the latter is true, then certainly Lemieux has a very realistic puncher's chance to win. Statistically, Lemieux is right up there with Golovkin as one of the top pound-for-pound punchers in the sport; Lemieux will have multiple opportunities to counter Golovkin's "Mexican style" attack with his patented haymakers. If any one of his power punches lands cleanly, even a seemingly "concrete" chin such as Golovkin's could succumb to Lemieux's power. (The fact of the matter is, Golovkin's chin has never been tested vs. a boxer with Lemieux's combination of skill, speed, and devastating power so we really don't know how his chin will hold up when truly tested.) Lemieux is the younger, arguably naturally stronger fighter in the prime of his career who has won his last nine fights and - unlike most other top middleweights - was confident enough to take the fight vs.Golovkin.

If this fight turns into the slugfest many think it will be then Lemieux - one of the elite sluggers in boxing - no doubt has at least a puncher's chance to win.

But, at the end of the day, what we have here is a boxing match (not the "street fight" Golovkin has stated he will happily be willing to engage in) and the disparity in boxing skills is why Golovkin should be the clear favorite to win.

Both boxers are aggressive pressure fighters but I like Golovkin's cautious aggressiveness to dictate this matchup. Golovkin will be more willing to wait for spots where he can exploit Lemieux's at times wild-swinging overaggressiveness with well-timed counters. Golovkin also has superior balance and footwork that will likely enable him to stay on his feet during the inevitable exchange of punches between the two heavy-handed boxers. Although Golovkin's chin has never been tested by anyone with Lemieux's power, the fact that Golovkin has never even come close to being knocked down or out in 383 amateur and professional fights is certainly strong evidence that his chin is legit.

Lemieux may very well succeed in jumping on Golovkin and landing some punches early, but it's difficult to overlook the fact that he has lost to and been forced to quit vs. boxers with far less skill than Golovkin; I very much expect that he'll be forced to quit again in the early to middle rounds of tonight's fight vs. a boxer in Golovkin who may be well on his way to becoming one of the all-time great middleweights in boxing history.

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO (2 units) 

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Cotto vs. Martinez: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Miguel Cotto (38-4-0, 31 KOs) vs. Sergio Martinez (51-2-2, 28 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: June 7, 2014
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC Middleweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Cotto +188, Martinez -205 (5 Dimes, 6/6/14)
Purse: Cotto: $3 million (guaranteed $7 million after TV revenues),  Martinez: $1.5 million (guaranteed more in TV revenues)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Cotto - #3 ranked junior middleweight, Martinez - #7 ranked pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine middleweight champion)
Style: Cotto: Orthodox, Martinez: Southpaw
Referee: Michael Griffin

Positives for Cotto

• Current Ring Magazine #3 ranked junior middleweight. Future hall-of-famer who has won major world titles in three different weight classes (light welterweight, welterweight, and light middleweight).
• High IQ, cautiously aggressive fighter with one of the best left hooks in boxing. (Cotto's left hook is particularly effective going to the body.) Cotto is widely considered one of the best body punchers in the sport. 
• One of the better offensive fighters in the boxing. Has good power in his left hand and throws combination punches very well. Versatile fighter who can outbox opponents from the outside or outpunch his opponents from the inside if needed.  
• Very experienced boxer who over the past decade has faced arguably the toughest competition of anyone in boxing. Has fought future hall-of-famers Floyd Mayweather Jr., Manny Pacquiao, and Shane Mosley as well as former champions such as Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Antonio Margarito (twice), and Ricardo Mayorga. Two years ago (May 2012), Cotto gave #1 pound-for-pound Mayweather one of the toughest fights of his career. 
• Will be fighting in front of a largely Puerto Rican, pro-Cotto crowd at Madison Square Garden the day before the National Puerto Rican Day parade. Cotto is 7-1 when fighting at Madison Square Garden, including 4-0 the weekend of the Puerto Rican Day parade.  
• Is currently trained by Freddie Roach, the 6-time Boxing Writers Association of America trainer of the year who is widely considered one of the best trainers in boxing history.
• In terms of common opponents, Cotto has beaten Antonio Margarito - one of only two boxers who has beaten Martinez.

Negatives for Cotto

• Although six years younger than Martinez, Cotto is 33 years old and is not as good of a fighter as he was in his prime. Although he's rebounded a bit since then, Cotto has not appeared to be the elite fighter he once was since his TKO loss to Margarito in 2008.
• Cotto is a gifted fighter offensively but has questionable defensive skills. Per CompuBox stats, opponents land nearly 40% of their power punches vs. Cotto, one of the highest percentages among CompuBox-tracked boxers. The top southpaws Cotto has faced - Pacquiao, Zab Judah, and Austin Trout - landed over 50% of their combined power punches vs. Cotto. If a middleweight with power like Martinez has similar success landing power punches, this fight will likely be over quickly.
• Cotto is fighting at middleweight for the first time vs. one of the best middleweights of this generation (and probably one of the best in history) in Sergio Martinez, who has natural advantages in size, speed, reach, height, and possibly power. Cotto fought at light welterweight (140 lbs) and welterweight (147 lbs) for the majority of his career; will his power stay with him as he moves up to middleweight?   
• Although Cotto has consistently taken on very tough opponents, he has not had a win vs. a top fighter in his prime since his close split decision victory vs. Clottey in 2009 - a fight many felt that Clottey won. 
• Cotto has questionable stamina; he has shown a tendency to tire later in fights, most notably his TKO loss to Margarito where he lost despite dominating the early rounds. 
• Cotto is a left-hand dominant boxer; he has very good power in his left hand but his right hand is generally not considered much of a threat in comparison. 
• Cotto has had troubles with the previous top southpaws he's faced (losses to both Austin Trout and Manny Pacquiao, as well as troubles in some rounds of his win in 2007 vs. Zab Judah).

Positives for Martinez

• Current Ring Magazine #7 pound-for-pound fighter and top-ranked middleweight. Although he has not received the glory and publicity of other top ranked fighters, Martinez is a future hall-of-famer who will go down as one of the best middleweights of this generation. 
• At 39 years old, is still a freakishly athletic, mobile, high IQ boxer who can outbox or outpunch his opponents with a wide variety of techniques. Martinez moves around the ring as well as anyone in the sport and fights very well on both his front foot (when coming forward) and back foot (while moving backwards). 
• Martinez has lost only twice in his career - a close majority decision loss 4.5 years ago to former middleweight champion Paul Williams and a TKO loss 14 years ago to Antonio Margarito. Overall Martinez has won his last seven fights.
• Is highly adept at potshotting his opponents with the jab, while using his legs and reach advantage to stay out of range vs. counter attacks. (Per CompuBox stats, is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of jabs landed.) 
• Martinez has highly deceptive, brutal punching power in both hands; one-punch knockout power which he has used to KO former titleholders Paul Williams, Darren Barker, and Serhiy Dzinziruk for the first time in their careers. Martinez has knocked out bigger boxers than Cotto in his career (including the aforementioned three) so certainly a possibility Martinez could stop Cotto, who has been stopped twice before in his career.     
• Martinez has excellent hand speed, which is the main reason he is one of the best combination punchers in the sport. Martinez should be able to beat Cotto to the punch consistently.
• Martinez generally outworks his opponents in terms of punches thrown; would expect Martinez to throw more punches than Cotto, especially if the fight gets to later rounds when Cotto tends to tire a bit. Martinez attacks to the body very well, which will likely further compromise Cotto's stamina as the fight goes on. 
• A former cyclist, Martinez has excellent stamina which allows him to maintain his mobility and perform well in later rounds.  
• Fight will be fought at a catchweight (159 lbs), just below the middleweight limit of 160 lbs. Martinez is the naturally bigger, stronger fighter compared to Cotto and will be fighting at a weight where he has been one of the greats of his generation; whereas Cotto will be moving up in weight to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career. 
• Martinez is an experienced boxer who has fought a solid list of former world champions including Paul Williams, Kelly Pavlik, Antonio Margarito, Darren Barker, Serhiy Dzinziruk, and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, compiling a record of 5-1-1 vs. these opponents.
• Martinez will be the heavier, taller, longer, faster, and quicker fighter and arguably more powerful puncher coming into the fight vs. Cotto. (These attributes will be difficult for Cotto to overcome.)
• Martinez is a determined fighter coming into this fight with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. Despite being a current middleweight champion and pound-for-pound one of the best boxers in the sport, he feels disrespected by being referred to as the "B" side fighter in the upcoming match vs. the "A" side Cotto.

Negatives for Martinez

• Martinez has been (and still is) one of the best boxers in the world but is 39 years old and well past his prime. It is inevitable that Martinez's age will catch-up with him; will this be the fight where Martinez shows his age?
• Martinez has sustained a variety of injuries during fights over the past couple of years; Martinez tore ligaments in his right knee and broke his left hand in his fight vs. Julio Cesar Chavez in September 2012 and then re-injured the right knee and broke his left hand again in his most recent fight vs. Martin Murray. (Both knee injuries required surgery.) Martinez also suffered a left shoulder injury in the fight vs. Murray. Given his age and the fact that he relies on mobility and power punching to box, there is a decent possibility Martinez suffers another injury in the fight vs. Cotto. Will another injury affect the outcome of the fight? How well will Martinez's right knee and left hand hold up vs. Cotto, who will likely try to pressure Sergio and make the fight physical?
• Due to his aforementioned injury problems, Martinez has been relatively inactive over the past couple of years. Martinez hasn't fought in over a year (April 2013) and has only fought twice in the past two years. Ring rust may be an issue; how good will a 39-year old Martinez look after a layoff of over a year?  
• Martinez has shown vulnerability in recent fights. Despite fighting in his home country vs. a huge underdog, Martinez looked unimpressive in a close decision victory vs. Martin Murray, even getting knocked down in the 8th round. Martinez has been knocked down in each of his past three fights (vs. Murray, Chavez Jr., and Dzinziruk) so is certainly susceptible to being knocked down vs. a power puncher like Cotto.
• Martinez is outstanding at using his legs and reach to elude his opponents' attacks but defensively he's a fundamentally flawed fighter. Martinez fights with his hands down and chin exposed which leaves him open to clean punches when his opponents catch up to him. Opponents land nearly 40% of power punches vs. Martinez, one of the highest percentages amongst CompuBox-tracked boxers. This may be a problem vs. an offensively efficient fighter like Cotto.

Prefight Summary

 Unless Martinez's age has finally caught up to him or he is still affected by his recurring hand and knee injuries, I think this will be an easy fight for Martinez. The bottom line with this fight is Martinez is naturally much bigger than Cotto - who will be fighting at middleweight for the first time - and is either slightly better or much better than Cotto at just about every other aspect of boxing.

Cotto has had problems in the past vs. top-level southpaws with good speed (see Manny Pacquiao, Austin Trout, and stretches of the Zab Judah fight), allowing them combined to land over 50% of their power punches. I expect Cotto's defensive flaws to be magnified vs. a bigger boxer in Martinez, who also has very good hand speed and throws some of the best combinations in boxing.

Cotto may have a game plan to pressure Martinez and beat him on the inside with a body attack. I don't see Cotto having sustained success with this game plan vs. a bigger, stronger guy like Martinez. If Cotto tries to pressure Martinez, I expect Sergio's crisp counterpunching to eventually wear Cotto down in the mid to late rounds. Martinez is a determined fighter who is not only more skilled than Cotto, but is fighting with a chip on his shoulder due to feeling disrespected in the prefight negotiations so I don't see Martinez letting this fight get away from him. Cotto is an aggressive boxer who packs a powerful punch, but I don't see his power at middleweight comparing to true middleweight power such as Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., Martin Murray, or Matthew Macklin, who were all able to knockdown Martinez in the later rounds of recent fights, but were unable to finish him.

Again, the big concern I have in this fight is whether or not Martinez finally shows his age and whether or not the injuries that have affected him in his last two fights recur again. If they do, this fight is certainly up in the air and Cotto could get the stoppage. But if Martinez stays healthy throughout the fight I fully expect the bigger, more skilled Martinez to beat Cotto by TKO/KO, if not a wide unanimous decision. A prime Miguel Cotto I would give a chance in this fight, not the slowed down 33-year old version we'll be seeing on Saturday.

Prediction: Martinez by TKO/KO or Decision