Matthysse vs. Provodnikov: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Lucas Matthysse (36-3-0-1, 34 KOs) vs. Ruslan Provodnikov (24-3, 17 KOs)
Location: Turning Stone Resort and Casino, Verona, New York
Date: April 18, 2015
Weight class: Junior welterweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: HBO
Line: Matthysse -165, Provodnikov +155 (5 Dimes, 4/18/15)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Matthysse: #1 ranked junior welterweight, Provodnikov: #3 ranked junior welterweight
Style: Matthysse: Orthodox, Provodnikov: Orthodox



Positives for Matthysse
Negatives for Matthysse
Positives for Provodnikov
Negatives for Provodnikov
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Matthysse

• Former interim WBC light welterweight champion. Along with Gennady Golovkin and Sergey Kovalev considered one of the best power punchers in boxing and is considered by many to be the most feared power puncher in boxing fighting under 160 lbs. Has legitimate KO power in both hands; 34 out of his 36 victories have come by TKO/KO. Has one of the highest KO% in boxing at 85% (34 wins by TKO/KO out of 40 fights). Arguably one of the top 5 offensive fighters in the sport.
• Aggressive, come-forward pressure fighter but also has decent, underrated boxing skills. Good combination puncher who throws a wide variety of power punches (overhand rights, straight rights, left hooks) from different angles and punches effectively both to the head and to the body. Cuts off the ring very well (though vs. another pressure fighter like Provodnikov he likely won't need to cut off the ring much, if at all).
• Has lost only 3 fights in his career - a close but clear unanimous decision loss to current undefeated lightweight champion Danny Garcia, and two highly controversial split decision losses to Devon Alexander and Zab Judah (both Alexander and Judah were knocked down in those fights). These 3 losses were vs. faster, more technically skilled boxers; vs. Provodnikov Matthysse will have the advantage in technical skill and hand speed. Has beaten well-regarded former world champions such as Lamont Peterson, Humberto Soto, and DeMarcus Corley - all by early/mid round TKO/KO.  
• Overall, is clearly a better boxer than Provodnikov - has superior technical skills, better foot movement, quicker hands, and higher boxing IQ. Will have a 3" reach advantage vs. Provodnikov and is the more accurate, precise, powerful puncher. 
• Has a decent (though perhaps not great) chin. Has been knocked down 3 times in his last 3 fights (the first 3 knockdowns of his career), but recovered well and never seemed to be in any trouble after getting knocked down.

Negatives for Matthysse

• Matthysse has shown a fairly good chin in the past but how will his chin hold up on Saturday vs. the most aggressive, relentless power puncher he's fought in his career? Matthysse was knocked down 3 times in recent fights vs. Danny Garcia and John Molina Jr. - neither of whom are nearly as aggressive or relentless as Provodnikov (though Molina has comparable power). There is a high risk Matthysse goes down again in this fight if he does not get to Provodnikov first - it will be interesting to see how Matthysse recovers if this happens.  
• Matthysse has possibly lost confidence since getting knocked down for the 1st time in his career in his September 2013 fight vs. Garcia (which was the first uncontroversial loss of his career) and has been knocked down two more times since then. Provodnikov is a fiercely determined fighter with seemingly indomitable will who has broken the confidence of top fighters (see his October 2013 fight vs. then WBO light welterweight champion Mike Alvarado).  
• Employs a fairly effective high guard defense but his aggressive, pressuring style often leaves him out of position and open to counter punching. Not a particularly fast or elusive boxer, so Provodnikov, who is also very effective at cutting off the ring, will have his opportunities to land clean power punches. 
• Can be outboxed - in particular vs. speedier, technically sound boxers who move well (see his losses vs. Judah, Alexander, and Garcia) though he comes into the fight vs. Provodnikov with a speed and skill advantage so this likely won't be an issue tonight. But Matthysse may not have the technical skill or chin to keep the high volume and effective pressure of Provodnikov at bay.
• Though in recent fights has improved his work rate in early rounds, Matthysse is known for being a slow starter. Provodnikov will relentlessly pressure Matthysse thoughout the entire 12 round fight so would not be a good idea to get down early on the scorecards in this matchup.

Positives for Provodnikov

• Former WBO light welterweight champion. High volume pressure fighter with an excellent punch. Superb inside boxer who cuts off the ring well and hits especially hard to the body. Has the ability to knockout any opponent at any time. In March 2013, knocked down Timothy Bradley - who has one of the best chins in boxing - for the first time in his career in the 12th round of their fight, a fight which Ring Magazine named fight of the year. Lost a close unanimous decision victory vs. then #3 pound-for-pound ranked Bradley, a fight some felt he won.
• Has lost only three times in his career - vs. Bradley, Chris Algieri (June 2014), and Mauricio Herrera (January 2011); all three losses were close, controversial decisions. Has defeated former world champions Jose Luis Castillo (most recent fight), Mike Alvarado, and DeMarcus Corley.
• Is known for having an excellent chin; has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career.
• Is a gritty, relentless, durable fighter with excellent stamina. Won't tire in the later rounds of fights. In terms of pure aggression and power will likely give Matthysse the toughest test of his career.
• Trained for this fight with 7-time BWAA trainer of the year Freddie Roach, under whom he has improved considerably since he began training with him in 2012. (Though because Roach is training Manny Pacquiao for his May 2 fight vs. Floyd Mayweather, Roach's assistant trainer Marvin Samodio will be the lead trainer for tonight's fight vs. Matthysse.) 
• Humble, likeable boxer from a small village in Siberia with tremendous inner strength and indomitable will to win. Physically tough but even greater mental toughness.
• Provodnikov's boxing skills, while not as sharp as Matthysse's, are somewhat underrated. He has shown some ability in previous fights to adapt to his opponent's fighting style and make necessary adjustments.

Negatives for Provodnikov

• Provodnikov comes into this fight having lost two out of his last four fights, his most recent at the hands of relatively unknown and inexperienced Algieri, who was as high as an 8-1 underdog. Provodnikov's two most recent wins were a 5th round TKO vs. a past prime Jose Luis Castillo in Russia and a 10th round victory vs. Alvarado, who has lost four out of his last five fights.
• How good is Provodnikov's chin? Provodnikov is noted for never having been knocked down or knocked out in his career but he's also never fought a true power puncher in his prime. Provodnikov's three losses (to Algieri, Bradley, and Herrera) have all been against opponents considered relatively feather-fisted. Freddie Roach admitted in interviews during and after the Bradley fight that he almost stopped the fight in the later rounds due to the accumulation of punches Provodnikov was taking; if Provodnikov was almost stopped vs. a light-fisted Bradley how will he fare vs. one of the best power punchers in the sport in Matthysse? The true strength of Provodnikov's chin will be tested in tonight's fight. 
• Lacks speed and mobility. This was the difference in his losses vs. Algieri and Bradley. In addition to having better boxing skills, Matthysse will have a hand speed and lateral movement advantage vs. Provodnikov, something Provodnikov will have to find a way to overcome if he wants to win this fight.
• Provodnikov's predictable come-forward approach combined with lack of speed and defensive fundamentals often makes him easy to hit. Provodnikov is more than willing to stand in front of his opponents and take punches to throw punches, which may not work well for him vs. a devastating power puncher like Matthysse, whose only losses have been vs. technically superior fighters who stayed outside of his punching range. 
• Swells/cuts very easily. Could be an issue as the fight progresses, especially vs. an accurate power puncher like Matthysse.

Prefight Summary

I think this fight ultimately comes down to how well Provodnikov's chin handles Matthysse's massive punching power. Provodnikov certainly has a very real chance to win this fight. He cuts off the ring just as well - if not better than - Matthysse and will attack Lucas with a combination of relentless aggression and power the likes of which Matthysse has never seen before in his career. Matthysse is not nearly as mobile as Algieri or Bradley (who handed Provodnikov his most recent losses) so he will be forced quite often to stand toe-to-toe with Provodnikov and slug it out. In a brawl such as this, it is largely a matter of which boxer has the greatest punching power, willpower, and chin. Provodnikov I believe has advantages in two out of these three attributes (willpower and chin) so I think he'll have the advantage if, as many expect, this fight turns into an all-out brawl.


Furthermore, it is possible that Matthysse has lost a bit of confidence in both his chin and punching power since losing to Danny Garcia; in that fight (in which Matthysse was listed as a 1-3 favorite), he was knocked down for the first time in his career and it was the first time he failed to knock down or knock out an opponent in over four years (over a span of 14 fights). In the fight following the Garcia fight, Matthysse was surprisingly knocked down two more times by 9-1 underdog John Molina Jr., who has comparable power to Provodnikov, but is not nearly as high volume or aggressive a puncher. If Provodnikov can turn this fight into a brawl and his chin is as good as advertised, there is a very good chance he'll wear Matthysse down and win this fight by TKO/KO in the mid to late rounds.



But I think the key point in evaluating this fight is noting that Provodnikov, while credited for having a great chin, has never fought anyone with Matthysse's brute punching power before. I can't help but think back to Freddie Roach admitting during the fight vs. Bradley that he was close to stopping the fight due to the punishment Provodnikov was taking. Admittedly, Bradley has top-level hand speed so can get his punches and combinations off quicker than Matthysse but he is also notorious for being a light puncher, having only 12 KOs in 34 career fights. If Provodnikov was in danger of being stopped vs. a feather-fisted Tim Bradley, I can't help but think he will be in for a very long night vs. one of the most accurate and heavy-handed power punchers in the sport, a fighter who has taken 34 of his 36 career wins by TKO/KO.


Provodnikov's come-forward, aggressive style will frequently leave him open to clean power punching over the course of the fight. Matthysse's hand speed is a bit faster than Provodnikov's so I see his punches generally landing first (before Provodnikov has a chance to land his) and landing more accurately, given Provodnikov's tendency to throw wild punches. I think we may find that Provodnikov's chin isn't quite as unbreakable as people think after being tested tonight by one of the best power punchers in the sport. This fight will largely be a matter of who gets to who first; I like Matthysse's power vs. a relatively slow, defensively negligient Provodnikov and think he will display just enough boxing skill and movement to keep Ruslan's power at bay. If Matthysse doesn't stop Provodnikov late, I like Lucas to win a competitive but clear unanimous decision victory.


But either way this fight should be a wildly entertaining fight-of-the-year (if not decade) level match-up that every boxing fan, whether hardcore or casual, should look forward to watching!

Prediction: Matthysse to win 

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Mayweather vs. Maidana II: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Floyd Mayweather (46-0-0, 26 KOs) vs. Marcos Maidana (35-4-0, 31 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 13, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC welterweight title, WBA Super World Welterweight title, WBC light middleweight title
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Mayweather -725, Maidana +585 (5 Dimes, 9/13/14)
Purse: Mayweather: $32 million,  Maidana: $3 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Floyd Mayweather - #1 ranked pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine welterweight and junior middleweight champion), Maidana - #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, Maidana: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Positives for Mayweather

• Current Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound fighter. Master technician who is one of the greatest boxers in the history of the sport. Has been ranked #1 pound-for-pound for much of the past decade and is widely considered the greatest boxer of this generation. Future first ballot hall-of-famer and has yet to lose a fight (46-0 record). Current WBC welterweight, WBC light middleweight, and WBA Super welterweight champion. 
• One of the great defensive fighters in the history of the sport. Excellent footwork, speed, and defensive technique makes him nearly impossible to hit cleanly. Per CompuBox stats, opponents land only 18% of punches vs. Mayweather, the 2nd lowest percentage landed amongst all CompuBox-tracked boxers. (Only opponents of Guillermo Rigondeaux land a lower percentage of punches.) Mayweather has mastered the shoulder roll, pull counter, and a variety of other defensive techniques to the extent that his opponents consistently miss punches even when they have him pinned to a corner of the ring. 
• Possibly the most efficient fighter in the history of the sport. Mayweather lands 42% of punches thrown, which leads all CompuBox-tracked boxers. In terms of CompuBox statistics, Floyd has dominated nearly every fighter he's ever fought.
• Already beat Maidana in previous fight in what was a competitive majority decision victory. Per CompuBox stats, Mayweather outlanded the more aggressive Maidana (230 to 221) and landed at a significantly higher percentage of punches (54%  to 26%). Landing at least 50% of power punches is generally considered excellent; Mayweather landed 65% of his power punches (compared to Maidana's 34%). 
• Counterpuncher by nature who uses his speed and reflexes to make opponents miss before countering with an unpredictable assortment of straight right hands, jabs, and left hooks. Has a quick release which makes it extremely difficult for his opponents to time his punches. 
• Widely considered one of the smartest and fundamentally sound boxers in the history of the sport. Highly adept at reading his opponents and making technical adjustments over the course of the fight. Rematches tend to favor the more technically sound boxer; in fighting Maidana a second time one would expect the technically superior Mayweather to be more likely to make the adjustments necessary to make the rematch an easier fight. In the first fight, Mayweather had a rough time in the early rounds before making adjustments and dominating the second half of the fight (I scored 6 of the last 7 rounds for Mayweather) - will the rematch simply be a continuation of the second half of the previous fight now that Floyd knows what to expect?   
• Excellent at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Throws very accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body. 
• Has been criticized for the quality of his opponents but the majority of opponents Mayweather has fought over the past seven years were ranked in the Ring Magazine top ten pound-for-pound at the time they fought Mayweather. Including the past two Maidana fights, Mayweather's last 14 opponents were either current or former major titleholders at the time they fought Mayweather.
• Kenny Bayless, who many consider the best referee in boxing, will ref the rematch vs. Maidana. Bayless is more likely to minimize much of the dirty fighting on the inside that occurred in the first fight (which appeared to favor Maidana).
• At 37 years old, Mayweather is in excellent shape, trains very hard, and will not overlook any opponent - even a heavy underdog like Maidana.

Negatives for Mayweather

• In the first fight last May, Maidana gave Mayweather one of the toughest fights of his career, arguably his toughest fight since the first Jose Luis Castillo fight in 2002. Per CompuBox stats, Maidana threw over twice as many punches (858 vs. 426) and landed more punches vs. Floyd than any other CompuBox-tracked opponent Floyd has fought. Maidana had a lot of success in the early rounds (particularly when backing Floyd into the corner of the ring). Many people saw the first fight as very close; one of the three judges even scored the fight a 114-114 draw. 
• Although still widely considered the top boxer in the sport, Mayweather is 37 years old, a few years past his prime, and doesn't have quite the power and speed he had when he was younger (though his power and speed haven't slipped too much). Mayweather's first fight with Maidana was one of the toughest fights of his career; if this was due at least in part to Mayweather's skills declining with age there is a good change Mayweather could have a similarly tough (or even tougher) fight ahead of him in the rematch.
• Low-volume puncher who can get out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. This was the case in his fight last year vs. Robert Guerrero, in which he arguably lost the first two rounds and was certainly the case in his first fight vs. Maidana where Mayweather appeared to lose many of the early rounds. Per CompuBox stats, Maidana outlanded Mayweather in 5 out of the first 6 rounds of the first fight.
• While Mayweather rarely gets hit cleanly, he has in the past shown susceptibility to power punches when they land. Whereas Canelo Alvarez was more low-volume, Maidana is a very high-volume power puncher which makes it possible he'll give Mayweather trouble at some point during the fight if he can get some of his punches to land. In the first fight vs. Mayweather, Maidana landed 34% of his power punches - well above the 22% of power punches landed by previous Mayweather opponents throughout the course of his career. If an excellent KO puncher like Maidana can get the right punch to land, this is certainly a fight he could win by TKO/KO.

Positives for Maidana

• Excellent power puncher with legitimate KO power in both hands. (31 of his 35 wins have come by KO.) One of the best KO boxers in the sport. Is capable of defeating Mayweather by TKO/KO if he can land some power punches. Maidana is currently in the prime of his career, while Mayweather is a few years past his prime. 
• In his first fight vs. Mayweather, Maidana surprised the boxing world by giving Floyd his toughest fight since his first fight with Jose Luis Castillo over a decade ago. In the first fight, Maidana threw more than twice as many punches as Mayweather and landed more punches than any previous CompuBox-tracked Mayweather opponent. Some felt Maidana actually won the first fight vs. Mayweather; one of the three judges scored the fight a draw.
• Very aggressive, high-volume puncher who is adept at cutting off the ring and applying pressure. Maidana's best punches are his right uppercut, left hook, and overhand right. Punches from awkward angles which makes it very difficult to anticipate his punches. In his first fight vs. Mayweather, Maidana was surprisingly effective with his overhand right punch and at backing Floyd into ring corners. 
• Highly confident boxer coming off of a competitive fight with the current #1 pound-for-pound boxer. Genuinely feels he could win the rematch vs. Mayweather with a few adjustments. Prior to the first fight vs. Mayweather, earned the best win of his career in defeating previously undefeated Adrien Broner for the WBA World welterweight title, a fight in which he knocked Adrien Broner down twice. (Broner had previously never been knocked down in his career.)
• Trainer is Robert Garcia, who is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  
• Maidana appears to have significantly improved his technical boxing skills - in particular his jab and body attack - under Garcia, who has trained him for his last five fights. (Maidana is 4-1 under Robert Garcia with the lone loss coming in the previous fight vs. Mayweather.) Maidana's defense has also improved a bit under Garcia.   
• Has reportedly improved his fitness for the upcoming rematch. Maidana tired in the 2nd half of the first Mayweather fight so improved endurance may result in better success in the 2nd half of the rematch compared to the first fight.
• Solid chin. Has been knocked down a few times in his career but has never been stopped. Has shown a tendency to fight well after being knocked down or facing pressure. Was never seriously hurt in the first fight vs. Mayweather so may be willing to take more chances in rematch if he doesn't feel Mayweather has the power to hurt him. 
• Gritty boxer who fights with a lot of heart/determination. Has proven he's not intimidated by Mayweather's skill or dominance of the sport over the past 17+ years.
• Given his success in the first fight, the crowd at the MGM Grand Garden arena will almost certainly be pro-Maidana, especially if he can repeat the success he had in the first few rounds of the previous fight in the rematch.

Negatives for Maidana

• Maidana is a very solid, but far from elite boxer fighting an opponent in Mayweather who is universally considered the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport today. Despite his relative success in the first fight, Maidana is still at a clear disadvantage vs. Mayweather in terms of talent, skill, and speed. After struggling a bit early, Mayweather made adjustments and dominated the 2nd half of the first fight. Rematches tend to favor the technically superior boxer and Mayweather is one of the best technicians in the history of the sport; now that Mayweather has a better idea of what to expect from Maidana there is a good chance he'll be able to make any necessary adjustments early and win the rematch by an even wider margin than the first fight. 
• Maidana has had trouble in the past with fighters who move well on their feet (see Maidana's fight vs. Devon Alexander, in which he lost 10 out of 10 rounds on 2 out of 3 judges' scorecards). Mayweather moves as well on his feet as anyone in the sport (or anyone in the sport's history for that matter). Although he throws more punches, Maidana is slower on foot than even the flat-footed Canelo Alvarez, who was unable to catch up to Mayweather in Mayweather's last fight. If Mayweather does a better job of keeping the fight in the center of the ring than he did in the first fight (and as Devon Alexander did in his domination of Maidana), he'll likely be able to control the fight with his movement and win a wide decision.
• Although one of the deadliest fighters in the sport pound-for-pound, Maidana is largely a one-dimensional boxer who is very predictable in his approach. (Come-forward, straight line puncher.) Maidana throws many of his punches from awkward, unpredictable angles, but he often telegraphs his punches with his wind-up movement and generally has to be stationary to set up one of his power punches. Mayweather struggled a bit in the early rounds with Maidana's awkward style but after figuring out Maidana's approach, rendered him largely ineffective through much of the 2nd half of the fight. If Mayweather does have Maidana figured out, there is a good chance the rematch will largely replicate the 2nd half of the first fight.
• In his first fight vs. Mayweather, Maidana weighed in at 165 pounds the day of the fight, 17 pounds heavier than Mayweather (148 pounds). For the purposes of improved stamina for the later rounds, it's been reported Maidana may come in at a lighter weight for the rematch. This may result in improved endurance, but will Maidana be able to impose his physicality and back Mayweather into corners (where much of his success came in the first fight) at a lighter weight? 
• Although he has improved somewhat, Maidana is a poor fighter defensively. Maidana's aggressiveness often leaves his head and body exposed to counter punches. (The three times Maidana has been knocked down has been the result of body shots.) Maidana's defense is particularly weak on the inside, as was shown in the Devon Alexander fight. Although never seriously hurt in the first Mayweather fight, per CompuBox stats, Mayweather did land 65% of his power punches - and 54% of his punches overall - vs. Maidana, both exceptionally high percentages.   
• Maidana's often throws wild punches. which sometimes leaves him out of position and open to the type of counterpunching Floyd excels at. As noted above, Floyd landed punches at an exceptionally high rate in the first fight. 

Prefight Summary

Despite Mayweather's clear technical skill, talent, and speed advantages, Maidana fought a surprisingly competitive fight vs. Mayweather in their first fight last May. Maidana used his 17 pound weight advantage, power, and awkward ultra aggressive style to effectively pressure Mayweather against the ropes in what was one of the toughest fights of Mayweather's career. Mayweather, who has shown an uncanny ability to fight well against the ropes throughout much of his career (including relatively recent fights vs. Canelo Alvarez, Robert Guerrero, and Victor Ortiz) looked unusually uncomfortable, having trouble with Maidana's power and physicality during much of the first half of the fight.

By the middle of the fight, however, the technically superior Mayweather made the adjustments necessary to to control the 2nd half of the fight - taking the fight from the ropes to the center of the ring, managing distance, and landing punches at an exceptionally high percentage. As in some of his previous losses, Maidana couldn't effectively sustain the high work rate achieved during the first half of the fight, getting outboxed in the second half of the fight after tiring in the later rounds.

As far as Maidana is concerned, something's got to give in the rematch. Reportedly Maidana, who weighed 17 pounds more than Mayweather in the first fight, will attempt to come in at a lighter weight for the rematch in the hopes of improving his stamina for the later rounds. But if Maidana comes in at a lighter weight, will he be still be able to be as physical and force Mayweather to fight from the corner as he did for much of the first fight? This strategy will likely be tougher to execute at a lighter weight, especially when you consider that the new referee for the rematch (Kenny Bayless) will probably focus on cleaning up much of the dirty infighting that occurred in the first fight. (In the first fight both fighters were guilty of overly physical tactics to an extent, though it seemed the sometimes dirty nature of the fight seemed to work in Maidana's favor.)

If, on the other hand, Maidana comes in at a similar weight and tries to fight the same fight I'd expect Mayweather to be better prepared for Maidana's style from his experience in the first fight and impose his technical skill and speed advantages earlier in the fight en route to an easier victory.

I see this rematch starting more as round 13 of the first fight than round 1 of a second fight. At the end of the day Maidana is largely a 1-dimensional fighter (albeit very effective 1-dimensional fighter); Mayweather had trouble with Maidana's style early in the first fight but he has enough experience and data on him now where I expect the adjustments Mayweather made in the second half of the last fight to carry over to the early rounds of the rematch. Over 90% of Maidana's wins have come by TKO/KO so Maidana always has a puncher's chance - especially if he can replicate the success he had in the first fight backing Mayweather into a corner. But I see this as a fight where Mayweather better knows what to expect out of Maidana from the first fight. With Mayweather likely making necessary adjustments earlier in the fight and the change in referee likely resulting in a "cleaner" fight than the first fight I expect Mayweather to win by a comfortable unanimous decision this time around.

Prediction: Mayweather by decision 

Cotto vs. Martinez: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Miguel Cotto (38-4-0, 31 KOs) vs. Sergio Martinez (51-2-2, 28 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: June 7, 2014
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC Middleweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Cotto +188, Martinez -205 (5 Dimes, 6/6/14)
Purse: Cotto: $3 million (guaranteed $7 million after TV revenues),  Martinez: $1.5 million (guaranteed more in TV revenues)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Cotto - #3 ranked junior middleweight, Martinez - #7 ranked pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine middleweight champion)
Style: Cotto: Orthodox, Martinez: Southpaw
Referee: Michael Griffin

Positives for Cotto

• Current Ring Magazine #3 ranked junior middleweight. Future hall-of-famer who has won major world titles in three different weight classes (light welterweight, welterweight, and light middleweight).
• High IQ, cautiously aggressive fighter with one of the best left hooks in boxing. (Cotto's left hook is particularly effective going to the body.) Cotto is widely considered one of the best body punchers in the sport. 
• One of the better offensive fighters in the boxing. Has good power in his left hand and throws combination punches very well. Versatile fighter who can outbox opponents from the outside or outpunch his opponents from the inside if needed.  
• Very experienced boxer who over the past decade has faced arguably the toughest competition of anyone in boxing. Has fought future hall-of-famers Floyd Mayweather Jr., Manny Pacquiao, and Shane Mosley as well as former champions such as Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Antonio Margarito (twice), and Ricardo Mayorga. Two years ago (May 2012), Cotto gave #1 pound-for-pound Mayweather one of the toughest fights of his career. 
• Will be fighting in front of a largely Puerto Rican, pro-Cotto crowd at Madison Square Garden the day before the National Puerto Rican Day parade. Cotto is 7-1 when fighting at Madison Square Garden, including 4-0 the weekend of the Puerto Rican Day parade.  
• Is currently trained by Freddie Roach, the 6-time Boxing Writers Association of America trainer of the year who is widely considered one of the best trainers in boxing history.
• In terms of common opponents, Cotto has beaten Antonio Margarito - one of only two boxers who has beaten Martinez.

Negatives for Cotto

• Although six years younger than Martinez, Cotto is 33 years old and is not as good of a fighter as he was in his prime. Although he's rebounded a bit since then, Cotto has not appeared to be the elite fighter he once was since his TKO loss to Margarito in 2008.
• Cotto is a gifted fighter offensively but has questionable defensive skills. Per CompuBox stats, opponents land nearly 40% of their power punches vs. Cotto, one of the highest percentages among CompuBox-tracked boxers. The top southpaws Cotto has faced - Pacquiao, Zab Judah, and Austin Trout - landed over 50% of their combined power punches vs. Cotto. If a middleweight with power like Martinez has similar success landing power punches, this fight will likely be over quickly.
• Cotto is fighting at middleweight for the first time vs. one of the best middleweights of this generation (and probably one of the best in history) in Sergio Martinez, who has natural advantages in size, speed, reach, height, and possibly power. Cotto fought at light welterweight (140 lbs) and welterweight (147 lbs) for the majority of his career; will his power stay with him as he moves up to middleweight?   
• Although Cotto has consistently taken on very tough opponents, he has not had a win vs. a top fighter in his prime since his close split decision victory vs. Clottey in 2009 - a fight many felt that Clottey won. 
• Cotto has questionable stamina; he has shown a tendency to tire later in fights, most notably his TKO loss to Margarito where he lost despite dominating the early rounds. 
• Cotto is a left-hand dominant boxer; he has very good power in his left hand but his right hand is generally not considered much of a threat in comparison. 
• Cotto has had troubles with the previous top southpaws he's faced (losses to both Austin Trout and Manny Pacquiao, as well as troubles in some rounds of his win in 2007 vs. Zab Judah).

Positives for Martinez

• Current Ring Magazine #7 pound-for-pound fighter and top-ranked middleweight. Although he has not received the glory and publicity of other top ranked fighters, Martinez is a future hall-of-famer who will go down as one of the best middleweights of this generation. 
• At 39 years old, is still a freakishly athletic, mobile, high IQ boxer who can outbox or outpunch his opponents with a wide variety of techniques. Martinez moves around the ring as well as anyone in the sport and fights very well on both his front foot (when coming forward) and back foot (while moving backwards). 
• Martinez has lost only twice in his career - a close majority decision loss 4.5 years ago to former middleweight champion Paul Williams and a TKO loss 14 years ago to Antonio Margarito. Overall Martinez has won his last seven fights.
• Is highly adept at potshotting his opponents with the jab, while using his legs and reach advantage to stay out of range vs. counter attacks. (Per CompuBox stats, is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of jabs landed.) 
• Martinez has highly deceptive, brutal punching power in both hands; one-punch knockout power which he has used to KO former titleholders Paul Williams, Darren Barker, and Serhiy Dzinziruk for the first time in their careers. Martinez has knocked out bigger boxers than Cotto in his career (including the aforementioned three) so certainly a possibility Martinez could stop Cotto, who has been stopped twice before in his career.     
• Martinez has excellent hand speed, which is the main reason he is one of the best combination punchers in the sport. Martinez should be able to beat Cotto to the punch consistently.
• Martinez generally outworks his opponents in terms of punches thrown; would expect Martinez to throw more punches than Cotto, especially if the fight gets to later rounds when Cotto tends to tire a bit. Martinez attacks to the body very well, which will likely further compromise Cotto's stamina as the fight goes on. 
• A former cyclist, Martinez has excellent stamina which allows him to maintain his mobility and perform well in later rounds.  
• Fight will be fought at a catchweight (159 lbs), just below the middleweight limit of 160 lbs. Martinez is the naturally bigger, stronger fighter compared to Cotto and will be fighting at a weight where he has been one of the greats of his generation; whereas Cotto will be moving up in weight to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career. 
• Martinez is an experienced boxer who has fought a solid list of former world champions including Paul Williams, Kelly Pavlik, Antonio Margarito, Darren Barker, Serhiy Dzinziruk, and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, compiling a record of 5-1-1 vs. these opponents.
• Martinez will be the heavier, taller, longer, faster, and quicker fighter and arguably more powerful puncher coming into the fight vs. Cotto. (These attributes will be difficult for Cotto to overcome.)
• Martinez is a determined fighter coming into this fight with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. Despite being a current middleweight champion and pound-for-pound one of the best boxers in the sport, he feels disrespected by being referred to as the "B" side fighter in the upcoming match vs. the "A" side Cotto.

Negatives for Martinez

• Martinez has been (and still is) one of the best boxers in the world but is 39 years old and well past his prime. It is inevitable that Martinez's age will catch-up with him; will this be the fight where Martinez shows his age?
• Martinez has sustained a variety of injuries during fights over the past couple of years; Martinez tore ligaments in his right knee and broke his left hand in his fight vs. Julio Cesar Chavez in September 2012 and then re-injured the right knee and broke his left hand again in his most recent fight vs. Martin Murray. (Both knee injuries required surgery.) Martinez also suffered a left shoulder injury in the fight vs. Murray. Given his age and the fact that he relies on mobility and power punching to box, there is a decent possibility Martinez suffers another injury in the fight vs. Cotto. Will another injury affect the outcome of the fight? How well will Martinez's right knee and left hand hold up vs. Cotto, who will likely try to pressure Sergio and make the fight physical?
• Due to his aforementioned injury problems, Martinez has been relatively inactive over the past couple of years. Martinez hasn't fought in over a year (April 2013) and has only fought twice in the past two years. Ring rust may be an issue; how good will a 39-year old Martinez look after a layoff of over a year?  
• Martinez has shown vulnerability in recent fights. Despite fighting in his home country vs. a huge underdog, Martinez looked unimpressive in a close decision victory vs. Martin Murray, even getting knocked down in the 8th round. Martinez has been knocked down in each of his past three fights (vs. Murray, Chavez Jr., and Dzinziruk) so is certainly susceptible to being knocked down vs. a power puncher like Cotto.
• Martinez is outstanding at using his legs and reach to elude his opponents' attacks but defensively he's a fundamentally flawed fighter. Martinez fights with his hands down and chin exposed which leaves him open to clean punches when his opponents catch up to him. Opponents land nearly 40% of power punches vs. Martinez, one of the highest percentages amongst CompuBox-tracked boxers. This may be a problem vs. an offensively efficient fighter like Cotto.

Prefight Summary

 Unless Martinez's age has finally caught up to him or he is still affected by his recurring hand and knee injuries, I think this will be an easy fight for Martinez. The bottom line with this fight is Martinez is naturally much bigger than Cotto - who will be fighting at middleweight for the first time - and is either slightly better or much better than Cotto at just about every other aspect of boxing.

Cotto has had problems in the past vs. top-level southpaws with good speed (see Manny Pacquiao, Austin Trout, and stretches of the Zab Judah fight), allowing them combined to land over 50% of their power punches. I expect Cotto's defensive flaws to be magnified vs. a bigger boxer in Martinez, who also has very good hand speed and throws some of the best combinations in boxing.

Cotto may have a game plan to pressure Martinez and beat him on the inside with a body attack. I don't see Cotto having sustained success with this game plan vs. a bigger, stronger guy like Martinez. If Cotto tries to pressure Martinez, I expect Sergio's crisp counterpunching to eventually wear Cotto down in the mid to late rounds. Martinez is a determined fighter who is not only more skilled than Cotto, but is fighting with a chip on his shoulder due to feeling disrespected in the prefight negotiations so I don't see Martinez letting this fight get away from him. Cotto is an aggressive boxer who packs a powerful punch, but I don't see his power at middleweight comparing to true middleweight power such as Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., Martin Murray, or Matthew Macklin, who were all able to knockdown Martinez in the later rounds of recent fights, but were unable to finish him.

Again, the big concern I have in this fight is whether or not Martinez finally shows his age and whether or not the injuries that have affected him in his last two fights recur again. If they do, this fight is certainly up in the air and Cotto could get the stoppage. But if Martinez stays healthy throughout the fight I fully expect the bigger, more skilled Martinez to beat Cotto by TKO/KO, if not a wide unanimous decision. A prime Miguel Cotto I would give a chance in this fight, not the slowed down 33-year old version we'll be seeing on Saturday.

Prediction: Martinez by TKO/KO or Decision

Mayweather vs. Maidana: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Floyd Mayweather (45-0-0, 26 KOs) vs. Marcos Maidana (35-3-0, 31 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 3, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC welterweight title, WBA Super World Welterweight title
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Mayweather -925, Maidana +725 (5 Dimes, 5/2/14)
Purse: Mayweather: $32 million,  Maidana: $1.5 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Floyd Mayweather - #1 ranked pound-for-pound, Maidana - #8 ranked welterweight
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, Maidana: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Positives for Mayweather

• Current Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound fighter. Master technician who is one of the greatest boxers in the history of the sport. Has been ranked #1 pound-for-pound for much of the past decade and is widely considered the greatest boxer of this generation. Future first ballot hall-of-famer and has yet to lose a fight (45-0 record). 
• One of the great defensive fighters in the history of the sport. Excellent footwork, speed, and defensive technique makes him nearly impossible to hit cleanly. Per CompuBox stats, opponents land only 18% of punches vs. Mayweather, the 2nd lowest percentage landed amongst all CompuBox-tracked boxers. (Only opponents of Guillermo Rigondeaux land a lower percentage of punches.) Mayweather has mastered the shoulder roll, pull counter, and a variety of other defensive techniques to the extent that his opponents consistently miss punches even when they have him pinned to a corner of the ring. 
• Possibly the most efficient fighter in the history of the sport. Mayweather lands 42% of punches thrown, which leads all CompuBox-tracked boxers. In terms of CompuBox statistics, Floyd has dominated nearly every fighter he's ever fought.
• Counterpuncher by nature who uses his speed and reflexes to make opponents miss before countering with an unpredictable assortment of straight right hands, jabs, and left hooks. Has a quick release which makes it extremely difficult for his opponents to time his punches. 
• Widely considered one of the smartest and fundamentally sound boxers in the history of the sport. Highly adept at reading his opponents and making technical adjustments over the course of the fight.
• Excellent at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Throws very accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body. 
• Has been criticized for the quality of his opponents but the majority of opponents Mayweather has fought over the past seven years were ranked in the Ring Magazine top ten pound-for-pound at the time they fought Mayweather. Including Maidana, Mayweather's last 13 opponents were either current or former major titleholders at the time they fought Mayweather.
• At 37 years old, Mayweather is in excellent shape, trains very hard, and does not overlook any opponent - even a heavy underdog like Maidana.

Negatives for Mayweather

• Although still widely considered the top boxer in the sport, Mayweather is 37 years old, a few years past his prime, and doesn't have quite the power and speed he had when he was younger (though his power and speed haven't slipped much). Will this be the fight where Mayweather's age finally catches up to him?
• Low-volume puncher who can get out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. (This was the case in his fight last year vs. Robert Guerrero, in which he arguably lost the first two rounds.)
• While Mayweather rarely gets hit cleanly, he has in the past shown susceptibility to power punches when they land. Whereas Canelo Alvarez was more low-volume, Maidana is a very high-volume power puncher which makes it possible he'll give Mayweather trouble at some point during the fight if he can get some of his punches to land.

Positives for Maidana

• Excellent power puncher with legitimate KO power in both hands. (31 of his 35 wins have come by KO.) One of the best KO boxers in the sport. Is capable of defeating Mayweather by TKO/KO if he can land some power punches. Maidana is currently in the prime of his career, while Mayweather is a few years past his prime.
• Very aggressive, high-volume puncher who is adept at cutting off the ring and applying pressure. Maidana's best punches are his right uppercut, left hook, and overhand right. Punches from awkward angles which makes it very difficult to anticipate his punches.
• Highly confident boxer coming off of the best fight of his career in defeating previously undefeated Adrien Broner for the WBA World welterweight title, a fight in which he knocked Adrien Broner down twice. (Broner had previously never been knocked down in his career.)
• Trainer is Robert Garcia, who is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  
• Maidana appears to have significantly improved his technical boxing skills - in particular his jab and body attack - under Garcia, who has trained him for his last four fights. (Maidana is 4-0 under Robert Garcia.) Maidana's defense has also improved a bit under Garcia.   
• Solid chin. Has been knocked down a few times in his career but has never been stopped. Has shown a tendency to fight well after being knocked down or facing pressure. 
• Gritty boxer who fights with a lot of heart/determination. 
• The crowd at the MGM Grand Garden arena will likely be pro-Maidana, especially if he has any kind of success within the first few rounds.

Negatives for Maidana

• Maidana is a very solid, but far from elite boxer fighting an opponent in Mayweather who is universally considered the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport today; is at a clear disadvantage vs. Mayweather in terms of talent, skill, and speed. Although he eventually got the KO, Maidana was in the past two years involved in very close fights with B-level fighters such as Josesito Lopez and Jesus Soto Karass so tough to see how he will have success vs. the #1 boxer in the sport. On the surface, it would appear Maidana's only chance to win the fight will be if he can land a lucky power punch to KO Mayweather.
• Maidana has had trouble in the past with fighters who move well on their feet (see Maidana's fight vs. Devon Alexander, in which he lost 10 out of 10 rounds on 2 out of 3 judges' scorecards). Mayweather moves as well on his feet as anyone in the sport (or anyone in the sport's history for that matter). Although he throws more punches, Maidana is slower on foot than even the flat-footed Canelo Alvarez, who was unable to catch up to Mayweather in Mayweather's last fight.
• Although one of the deadliest fighters in the sport pound-for-pound, Maidana is largely a one-dimensional boxer who is very predictable in his approach. (Come-forward, straight line puncher.) Maidana throws many of his punches from awkward, unpredictable angles, but he often telegraphs his punches with his wind-up movement and generally has to be stationary to set up one of his power punches. Throwing power punches from a stationary position will be extremely difficult to do vs. Mayweather.
• Although he has improved somewhat, Maidana is a poor fighter defensively. Maidana's aggressiveness often leaves his head and body exposed to counter punches. (The three times Maidana has been knocked down has been the result of body shots.) Maidana's defense is particularly weak on the inside, as was shown in the Devon Alexander fight.   
• Maidana's often throws wild punches. which sometimes leaves him out of position and open to the type of counterpunching Floyd excels at.

Prefight Summary

This should end up being an easy fight for Mayweather. Maidana, one of the hardest punchers in the sport, certainly has a puncher's chance (as he does in every fight), especially if he can get Mayweather pinned to a corner of the ring - a position Mayweather has willingly and comfortably fought from in previous fights. If Maidana can land power punches against Mayweather with Mayweather pinned to the corner of the ring, there's a reasonable chance Maidana *could* overwhelm Mayweather and pull off a shocking TKO/KO.

 But other than a lucky punch, this is Maidana's only chance to win the fight. In his last fight, Maidana was able to overwhelm a flat-footed Adrien Broner who stood in front of him the whole fight. Mayweather is a much more mobile fighter on his feet, capable of countering and potshotting while on the move, a style Maidana has had tremendous difficulty with in the past (most notably his fight with Devon Alexander where he arguably lost every round of a 10-round fight). Maidana does not have the foot speed or the technical skills to outbox Mayweather over the course of 12 rounds.

The thing to note when analyzing this fight is that there's a *big* difference between throwing punches well on the move vs. throwing punches well from a stationary position. Maidana has proven himself to be one of the hardest punchers in the sport when throwing punches vs. less mobile fighters standing right in front of him. For this fight vs. Mayweather, I expect Maidana will be unable to setup and throw the same quality of punches vs. arguably the most elusive fighter in the sport.

I anticipate Floyd being able to figure out Maidana in the early rounds and unmercilessly counterpunching the defensively inept Argentinian over the middle and later rounds for a wide unanimous decision victory. I expect Floyd to be so dominant that I actually wouldn't be surprised if he stops Maidana (who has never been knocked down or stopped in his career)  by TKO/KO in the later rounds. But the pick here is Floyd by easy unanimous decision. 

Prediction: Mayweather by decision