Golovkin vs. Martirosyan: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Gennady Golovkin (37-0-1, 33 KOs) vs. Vanes Martirosyan (36-3-1, 21 KOs)
Location: StubHub Center, Carson, California
Date: May 5, 2018
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World middleweight and WBA Super World middleweight titles (Golovkin is also the IBF World middleweight champion but the IBF declined to sanction this fight.)
TV: HBO
Purses: Golovkin: $1 million, Martirosyan: $225,000
Line: Golovkin -2550, Martirosyan +1900 (5 Dimes, 5/4/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin: #1 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked middleweight, Martirosyan: Not ranked
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Martirosyan: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

Gennady Golovkin was supposed to fight Mexican boxing superstar Canelo Alvarez this Saturday in Las Vegas in a rematch of their September fight (that ended in a highly entertaining, but controversial draw that most observers felt Golovkin won), but the fight was canceled after Canelo failed two drug tests in the leadup to the fight.

Despite the draw from the Canelo fight (the first blemish on Golovkin's previously perfect boxing record), Golovkin is still undefeated and still ranked by many experts - including Ring Magazine - as the #1 boxer in the sport pound-for-pound. Golovkin is still the unified WBA, WBC, and IBF middleweight champion of the world (boasting an impressive 87% KO percentage - the highest KO% in middleweight history) and still probably the most feared power puncher in the sport.

But Golovkin hasn't looked quite as invincible in recent fights vs. A-level fighters as he did in his prime vs. weaker competition. Controversy or not, Golovkin managed only a draw in his most recent fight vs. Canelo and eked out a close unanimous decision victory in his fight preceding the Canelo fight last March vs. Danny Jacobs - a fight that some observers felt he lost. (I was at this fight and - despite betting on Golovkin to win - scored it 114-113 for Jacobs.) The fights vs. both Canelo and Jacobs were somewhat surprising, much closer-than-expected results after Golovkin had won his 23 fights prior to those fights all by TKO or KO.

The fact of the matter is, Golovkin is 36-years old and past his prime, with some feeling he's (noticeably) slowed in recent years in terms of foot speed, and doesn't have quite the power he had in his prime. Saturday's fight vs. an underrated, highly skilled fighter in Vanes Martirosyan is a chance for Golovkin to prove he hasn't regressed even further after an 8-month layoff (the 2nd longest layoff of his career) and a chance to gauge whether he should still be rated the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport over the likes of rising stars such as Terence Crawford and Vasyl Lomachenko.

Martirosyan is moving up in weight from the junior middleweight (154 lb) division to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career (after a two-year layoff from the sport) and is fighting on less than three weeks notice to fight arguably the #1 boxer in the world.

But Martirosyan poses an intriguing challenge for Golovkin. Martirosyan has 3 losses in his career, but those were all close, disputed decision losses to A-level fighters in Erislandy Lara, Jermall Charlo, and Demetrius Andrade. (Andrade and Charlo are still undefeated and considered among the best in the sport pound-for-pound.)

Martirosyan has proven he has the ability to box with anyone. He's adept at fighting from distance and moves extremely well; his tricky, sometimes awkward movement combined with excellent stamina makes it difficult for anyone - even an elite power puncher like Golovkin - to land fight-stopping punches against him. (In 40 professional fights, Martirosyan has never even come close to being stopped and has only been knocked down once in his career - a flash knockdown in the 9th round of his unanimous decision victory vs. Kasim Ouma in 2010.)

Despite the public criticism of this matchup, Martirosyan is arguably one of the top four or five opponents Golovkin has faced (in terms of talent and skill) and is a solid enough boxer to be an effective gauge as to where a 36-year-old Golovkin is at in his career after two fights in which he fought well, but showed signs of slippage.

If Martirosyan - a massive 20-1 underdog in this matchup - can win this fight it would obviously be (by far) the biggest win of his career, not to mention be the biggest upset in boxing in recent memory. An upset here would turn the middleweight division - which Golovkin has dominated for most of the last decade - on its heels.

But if Golovkin looks impressive and dominates Martirosyan as expected, it further wets the appetite for a possible Canelo vs. Golovkin fight in September, a rematch of what was considered by many a classic and one of the best fights of 2017.

Prefight Analysis

I actually wouldn't be surprised if Martirosyan is competitive in this fight. Martirosyan has never been decisively beaten in his career and in 2 out of this 3 career losses (each of which came vs. A-level fighters), you could make a strong argument that Martirosyan won the fight. There's been criticism of the Golovkin/Martirosyan matchup, but Vanes is a top-level fighter in his own right who's difficult to look good against and could prove to be a tougher-than-expected test for Golovkin.

Martirosyan moves well and has slightly better hand and foot speed than Golovkin. While far from a defensive wizard, Martirosyan has enough skill and awkward elusiveness to evade Golovkin's power punching and make this a competitive fight for several rounds. Martirosyan is moving up in weight and hasn't fought in nearly two years but in terms of pure skill, I'd rate Martirosyan just below Canelo, Jacobs, and Kell Brook as probably the 4th-best fighter Golovkin has fought in his career. I  would also rate Martirosyan's ability to box on the move as comparable and in some ways superior to Jacobs, who employed effective movement to give Golovkin the toughest fight of his career.

But Martirosyan is nearly a 20-1 underdog in this matchup for a reason. You can't escape the fact that
Vanes will be making his middleweight debut on less than 3 weeks notice after a 2-year layoff vs. arguably the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport and arguably the #1 middleweight fighter of this generation in Golovkin. Martirosyan has never faced a fighter with power anything close to Golovkin's and I think Vanes will lose some of his elusiveness and crafty foot movement (which he would rely on to evade that power) at the higher weight. And although Martirosyan is a fighter who moves well, he's a scrappy fighter at heart who's shown in previous fights a willingness to stay in the pocket and trade punches from close distance - at trait which will likely work against him if he decides to trade vs. a historically great power puncher like Golovkin.

Note that Golovkin will be able to stay aggressive and take more risks vs. Martirosyan - a natural 154-lber who doesn't have the knockout power of a Canelo or Jacobs, both of whom Golovkin had to at times box cautiously against (as respect to their power).

Skillwise, I think Golovkin and Martirosyan are comparable but there will be a clear advantage in terms of size, power, and experience at middleweight for Golovkin in this matchup. Martirosyan is a game fighter who I think is underrated by most. But if you combine the size and power advantages here with the ring rust resulting from Vanes having been out of the ring for nearly two years, I think we'll see a fairly easy stoppage victory for Golovkin in the middle rounds - perhaps earlier. Again, Martirosyan has an awkward style that's difficult to look good against, but - with all factors considered - if Golovkin doesn't look good here I think it will be a bit of a confirmation that he's slipped a bit and perhaps should no longer be considered the best boxer in the world over the likes of Lomachenko or Crawford.

In any case I'll be at the fight at StubHub Saturday night and am looking forward to seeing how this fight unfolds!

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO

Recommended bet(s): 
1) Golovkin to win in rounds 1-4 (.5 unit) 
2) Golovkin to win in rounds 5-8 (.5 unit)

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Golovkin vs. Rubio: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Gennady Golovkin (30-0-0, 27 KOs) vs. Marco Antonio Rubio (59-6-1, 51 KOs)
Location: Stubhub Center, Carson, California
Date: October 18, 2014
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Middleweight title, IBO World Middleweight title, interim WBC World Middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Golovkin -5700, Rubio +3600 (5 Dimes, 10/18/14)
Purse: Golovkin: $900,000,  Rubio: $350,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin - #1 ranked middleweight, Rubio - #5 ranked middleweight
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Rubio: Orthodox
Referee: Jack Reiss

Positives for Golovkin

• Current Ring Magazine #1 middleweight and reigning WBA and IBO middleweight champion. Undefeated at 30-0 and, with 27 KOs in 30 fights, holds the highest knockout percentage in middleweight history. Named Ring Magazine fighter of the year in 2013 after four impressive KO victories. 
• Offensively gifted boxer who possesses elite KO power in both hands. Golovkin's 90% KO percentage (27 KOs in 30 fights) ranks first among active current and former champions and ranks second overall in championship history. Has the potential to go down as one of the great power punchers in the history of the sport.
• Intelligent pressure fighter who is excellent at using footwork to cut off the ring. Very efficient boxer who tends not to waste punches.
•  Has outstanding power but is also technically savvy. Golovkin does not have great hand speed but makes up for it with an outstanding jab and methodical, accurate combination punching. Per CompuBox stats, Golovkin lands more jabs per round than any other CompuBox-tracked fighter and other than ultra-aggressive super bantamweight champion Leo Santa Cruz, Golovkin lands more overall punches per round than any other CompuBox-tracked fighter. Per CompuBox plus/minus ratings, other than #1 pound-for-pound champion Floyd Mayweather Jr., Golovkin is the most dominant fighter in the sport. 
•  Possesses an excellent chin. Golovkin has never been knocked down or knocked out over approximately 380 fights as an amateur and pro. 
• Has an impressive amateur pedigree, with over 340 wins (including wins vs. Andre Dirrell, Lucian Bute, and Andy Lee) against only 5 losses. Won a silver medal medal for his native Kazakhstan in the 2004 Summer Olympics in Athens, Greece. 
• Trains with Abel Sanchez, a very underrated fighter who has trained numerous former champions including Terry Norris, Olin Norris, Carlos Baldomir, and Samuel Peter. 

Negatives for Golovkin

• Golovkin is fighting arguably his toughest opponent to date in Rubio, an experienced veteran who is naturally bigger than Golovkin.  
• Rubio is a tough, hard-nosed fighter who could survive into the later rounds with Golovkin. Does Golovkin have the stamina to fight effectively in later rounds? Out of 30 professional fights, Golovkin has only gone to the 10th round once in his career and only fought past six rounds seven other times. 
• While applying pressure vs. his opponents, Golovkin sometimes has shown susceptibility to getting caught with clean counter punches (most recently in 3rd round of his fight vs. Geale before knocking him out). Golovkin has a great chin but often focuses more on offense than protecting himself defensively so at times is open to be hit when he drops his guard. 
• Is not as good a boxer fighting inside as he is from distance, as shown at times in the Gabriel Rosado fight and early in his fight with Daniel Geale. If Rubio can use his size advantage and toughness to turn the fight into an inside brawl he may have a chance of making the fight competitive.
• Golovkin is being promoted as possibly the next big star in boxing but he is 32 years old so likely is towards the end of the prime of his career. 
• While highly accurate and efficient, Golovkin does not possess great speed or quickness, though he will have an advantage in both areas vs. Rubio.

Positives for Rubio

• Former interim WBC Middleweight champion (lost title after failing to make weight for this fight).Oft underrated/overlooked fighter who is tough and very strong-willed. Experienced boxer who is arguably Golovkin's best opponent to date. 
• Naturally bigger fighter than Golovkin who has gone the distance with power punchers bigger than Golovkin (e.g., Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.). Fight could be competitive if he can impose his size and will on Golovkin and keep the fight on the inside.
• Powerful, heavy-handed boxer who counter punches well. 51 of his 59 wins have come by TKO/KO. Most effective punches are his straight jab and straight overhand right.
• Has beaten a fighter similar to Golovkin in David Lemieux. In April 2011, Lemieux was a highly regarded undefeated boxer who had won 24 of his 25 professional fights by knockout. Despite being a heavy underdog fighting in Lemieux's home town of Montreal, Rubio defeated Lemieux by 7th-round TKO despite Lemieux dominating the early the rounds.   
• Not great defensively, but uses high guard defense well to block punches. Hasn't been stopped in over 5 years.
• Trainer is Robert Garcia, who is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  

Negatives for Rubio

• Widely considered a "B" level fighter with good boxing skills, but on a level below elite fighters like Golovkin. Experienced, but has already lost/been knocked out multiple times vs. lesser fighters than Golovkin. In the past has lost decisively when stepping up to fight top-level opponents such as Chavez Jr. and Kelly Pavlik.
• Despite eventually winning by 10th-round TKO, did not look impressive in most recent fight vs. Domenico Spada.
• Relatively low-volume puncher who at times loses rounds due to inactivity. Can't afford to fall behind on the scorecards vs. a fighter like Golovkin.
• Flawed defensive fighter who lacks upper body movement. Will likely not be a difficult target for Golovkin's jab and combination punches. 
• While Rubio is known for his power punching, Golovkin has already fought a bigger puncher in Curtis Stevens, who he defeated decisively by TKO in 8 rounds.

Prefight Summary

This is not a tough fight to predict, but this is an intriguing matchup as Rubio is probably the best fighter Golovkin has ever fought in his professional career. Rubio is a very tough, gritty guy with good power whose size and experience could pose problems for Golovkin. If Rubio can survive the early rounds and impose his size and will on Golovkin in the later rounds, this fight could get very interesting. Rubio is currently a massive 36-1 underdog so it may be worth putting a small amount on him to pull off the upset, especially given that he's the more experienced fighter and will be fighting in the Los Angeles area in front of a crowd that will include a large number of Mexican fans rooting for him.

As a super-aggressive pressure fighter, Golovkin does at times leave himself open to counters; Rubio might be the guy that has the power and counter punching ability to withstand Golovkin's pressure. Again, if Rubio can get through the early rounds, Golovkin is largely untested in his pro career in mid to later rounds so the fight could be up for grabs if it gets to that point.

With all this said, I see this as being another very easy fight for Golovkin. Despite his toughness, Rubio at the end of the day is a B-level fighter with limited hand speed and defensive skills; as the fight progresses it will only be a matter of time before he succumbs to Golovkin's pressure. Rubio has lost decisively in the past every time he's stepped up to fight top-level power punchers (see his fights vs. Pavlik and Chavez Jr.) and I expect this fight to be no different.

Golovkin has never been knocked down or out in his amateur or professional career (approximately 380 fights) so even if Rubio were to catch him with some solid shots, I expect Golovkin to largely walk through Rubio's attack en route to an easy early to mid round TKO/KO victory. How impressive Golovkin looks against an experienced, proven veteran like Rubio - who happens to be trained by one of the top boxing trainers in the world in Robert Garcia - will go a long way in determining whether or not his name belongs up there with the top pound-for-pound boxers in the sport.

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO