Alvarado vs. Rios III: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Mike Alvarado (34-3, 23 KOs) vs. Brandon Rios (32-2-1, 23 KOs)
Location: 1STBANK Center, Broomfield, Denver, Colorado
Date: January 20, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO International Welterweight title (currently vacant)
TV: HBO
Line: Alvarado +155, Rios -165 (5 Dimes, 1/24/15)
Purse: Alvarado: $785,000, Rios: $850,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarado: #5 ranked junior welterweight, Rios: Not ranked
Style: Alvarado: Orthodox, Rios: Orthodox
Referee: Jay Nady

Link to Alvarado/Rios I (HBO)
Link to Alvarado/Rios II (HBO)

Positives for Alvarado 
Negatives for Alvarado
Positives for Rios
Negatives for Rios
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Alvarado

• Former WBO light welterweight champion. Aggressive, high-volume boxer-puncher with very good punching power. Versatile boxer who has very solid boxing skills but is also more than willing to brawl. 
• Tough, gritty boxer who fights with a lot of heart (though fighting with his heart has sometimes been to his disadvantage). Showed heart in his most recent fight, a tough unanimous decision loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in May 2014 where he knocked Marquez down in the 9th round after being dominated the entire fight. Generally solid boxer who has beaten notable contenders such as Mauricio Herrera, Breidis Prescott, and Rios in their first rematch. Naturally athletic fighter who was a former Colorado high school state champion in wrestling.
• Alvarado is not a great technician but has better overall boxing skills than Rios. Was especially effective in both previous fights vs. Rios with his power right hand, as well as his left jab - which was used to set up power punches and combinations. Fought particularly well vs. Rios in both previous fights when fighting from the outside and more often than not beat Rios to the punch due to reach advantage and quicker hand speed.
• After losing to Rios in October 2012 (Alvarado's first career defeat), in March 2013 Alvarado won the rematch vs. Rios via unanimous decision victory on a neutral site in Las Vegas. Generally, boxers with the better technical skill tend to fare better in rematches due to better ability to adjust; Alvarado won the rematch vs. Rios in 2013 so wouldn't be surprising if Alvarado wins this rematch even more decisively with additional adjustments. Even in the first loss to Rios, Alvarado outboxed Rios early before Rios power punches started to take effect.    
• The fight is taking place in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, where the crowd will be decidedly pro-Alvarado. Has already beaten Rios on a neutral site in their last fight so is perhaps even more likely to beat Rios in Denver.
• Mobile fighter with good footwork. Alvarado's dvantage over Rios increases the more he boxes on his feet, staying out of range from Rios' power punches and utilizing his superior boxing skills and speed from the outside.
• Alvarado has excellent stamina, which may play an important role given that the fight is taking place in Denver. (In high altitude cities such as Denver, low air pressure makes it more difficult to breathe.) Alvarado's stamina generally allows him to finish strong in the later rounds of fights.
• Although he has been either knocked down or lost by TKO in three of his last four fights, does have an above average chin. Fights through getting hit with power punches reasonably well (problem is he sometimes ends up getting hit with too many power shots).

Negatives for Alvarado

•  Alvarado's defensive skills, while a bit better than Rios's due to his foot movement, are suspect. This and his inclination at times to brawl from inside (rather than use movement and boxing skills from outside) in fights has left him susceptible to knockdowns in most of his recent fights vs. top opponents. Alvarado's inability to defend himself has resulted in Alvarado getting knocked down three times in his last two fights and losing three out of his last four fights (two by TKO with his most recent loss by wide unanimous decision to Marquez). Has lost by TKO to Rios before so wouldn't be surprising to see Rios hand him another TKO loss. There will inevitably be moments in tonight's fight where he will brawl with Rios - which will likely be to Rios' advantage. 
• Is fighting at home in the Denver area but, even as a solid favorite, lost his last fight in Denver via TKO to Ruslan Provodnikov (who like Rios is limited skillwise but is a relentless power puncher who cuts off the ring well).
• Has Alvarado fully recovered from the recent TKO losses to Rios and Provodnikov? While Alvarado has shown a good chin in the past, there are questions as to how he's been affected by the brutal wars he's had with Rios and Provodnikov, as well as his most recent loss to Marquez. Boxers have a history of losing confidence and becoming gun shy after wars such as the ones he's had recently. In addition to being battle-worn, Alvarado is 34 years old (six years older than Rios) and likely past his prime.
• Alvarado has good boxing skills, but he's far from a master technician. When fighting from the inside, Rios will generally have the advantage, particularly due to his better chin and more effective power punching from inside.
• Alvarado is a convicted felon who is facing the prospect of a lengthy prison sentence after recently being charged with illegally possessing a firearm. How will the looming felony charges and prospect of a prison sentence affect him in the fight?

Positives for Rios

• Former WBA welterweight champion. Very good pressure fighter with dangerous power in both hands. Brawler who fights especially well from the inside and is very effective at cutting off the ring. Earned a 7th round TKO victory vs. Alvarado in their first fight on October 2012.
• Has one of the best chins in boxing. Consistently walks through flush power punches. Has never been stopped in his career and only been knocked down once, a 2006 fight vs. Joel Ortega (which he came back to win by 5th round KO).
• Has good counterpunching skills. Rios often takes flush power punches in order to throw even more powerful counterpunches - which is an effective style for him due to his excellent chin and deceptively quick hand speed.   
• Relentless puncher from the inside. Inside hooks and overhand rights were especially effective in both of his previous fights vs. Alvarado. Uses body attack well to wear down his opponents over the course of a fight. 
• Like Alvarado is a very tough boxer who fights with a warrior mentality and tremendous will to win. Probably a bit physically and mentally tougher than Alvarado. Will be highly motivated to win this fight as he knows his career as a top-level boxer may be over with a loss.
• Longtime trainer is Robert Garcia, widely considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  
• Has had issues in the past at lower weights cutting weight (which sometimes leaves him drained on the day of the fight). This will be much less of an issue in this fight, his second fight at welterweight (147 pounds).

Negatives for Rios

• Very stationary, flat-footed, predictable fighter. In Alvarado will be fighting a boxer with superior technical skill, boxing IQ, mobility, and hand speed (and a boxer who is familiar with his predictable tendencies from their previous fights). Will have to turn fight with Alvarado into a brawl in order to win; in a pure boxing match Alvarado wins easily with his superior skill, speed, and reach.  
• Lost two out of his last three fights, including the rematch vs. Alvarado. Only win in past two years was a DQ victory vs. Diego Chaves who was actually ahead on two out of three judge's scorecards before being disqualified due to intentional elbow to face. Rios has actually been behind on at least one judge's scorecard at the time of stoppage in four out of his last fights. 
• Though he has an excellent chin, Rios has poor defensive skills. Uses very little head movement and is more than willing to take flush punches in order to land his own power punches. This style has generally been effective for him in his career but results in easy scoring opportunities for his more skilled opponents such as Alvarado and Manny Pacquiao, who he lost to by wide unanimous decision in November 2013.  
• Is fighting in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, facing in front of a hostile, pro-Alvarado crowd after losing to Alvarado in their rematch in October 2013.
• Like Alvarado has been through some brutal wars in recent fights, most notably his two fights vs. Alvarado and his November 2013 unanimous decision loss vs. Pacquiao. Will Rios, who has shown signs of regression in recent fights, be able to return to top form vs. Alvarado?

Prefight Summary

Both Alvarado/Rios I and II were strong fight of the year candidates so I definitely expect tonight's fight to be a barnburner as well. Both fighters have slumped in recent fights and realize that another loss here may be the end of their respective careers as top-level boxers and significantly threaten future big fight opportunities.

I'm actually mildly surprised to see that Rios is listed as a solid (-165 on 5 Dimes) favorite in this fight. Vegas likely sees Alvarado as an aging boxer in his mid-30s who has had a lot taken out of him in recent fights - all of which were grueling, brutal wars. Alvarado did lose three out of those last four fights, including a TKO loss the last time he fought in Denver (vs. Provodnikov) and a TKO loss the first time he fought Rios. (Vegas also sees Alvarado as likely distracted by felony charges that could potentially leave him locked up for a few years.) Rios has also slumped in recent fights, losing two out of his last three (including his last fight vs. Alvarado), but is younger, has a much better chin, and overall is viewed as having not regressed as much as Alvarado over his past few fights. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Rios wear Alvarado down in the later rounds for the TKO/KO victory; at the end of the day Alvarado is defensively suspect and he does have a penchant for getting drawn into brawls (as opposed to using his movement and boxing skills), which is to Rios' advantage.

This fight could certainly go either way but I still favor Alvarado. Alvarado made the necessary adjustments to beat Rios in their first rematch and is still the better boxer between the two. One big difference in this fight is, for the first time in their trilogy, they will fight in Alvarado's hometown of Denver - I see that as being a boost for Alvarado's spirits and feel fighting in Denver could even slightly affect the judges' scoring (in what will likely be a close, competitive fight). Alvarado was outclassed in his last fight vs. future first ballot hall-of-famer Juan Manuel Marquez (though to his credit he fought a courageous fight which included a knockdown of Marquez in the later rounds), but learned his lesson from his first fight with Rios and TKO loss vs. Provodnikov that he is much more effective vs. brawlers using movement and his technical skill to outbox his opponents (as opposed to staying inside and trying to beat them at their own game). Rematches generally favor the more technically skilled fighter and I see this rematch being more a repeat of their previous rematch (in which Alvarado was able to make the necessary adjustments to win by unanimous decision) than a repeat of their first fight (which Rios won by TKO).

I actually see Rios as the slightly physically and mentally tougher fighter in this matchup but think Alvarado will use his superior boxing skill, quickness, and mobility, as well as draw from the energy of the home crowd and knowledge of Rios' (predictable) tendencies to earn a competitive but clear decision victory. Some feel Alvarado will be distracted by his outside legal issues; Alvarado is a convicted felon who actually has a fairly lengthy history of legal troubles and to this point in his career has not let those issues affect his performance in the ring. (Alvarado entered his last fight vs. Rios with visible cuts on his face and neck stemming from a bar fight and was still able to win vs. a a fighter who beat him by TKO in their previous fight.) Alvarado will utilize the footwork he used with good success in their last fight, as well as his hand speed and quickness advantage to outwork the defensively inept Rios over the course of 12 rounds to win the rubbermatch of  what is destined to go down as one of the classic trilogies in boxing history.

(Note: though I think Alvarado by decision is the most likely outcome and the way to go with this fight, would also consider wagering a smaller amount on Rios by TKO/KO as a hedge as there is certainly a possibility Alvarado's age and recent wars have worn him down to a shell of his former self.)

Prediction: Alvarado by decision 

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Alvarado vs. Provodnikov: postfight analysis (scoring recap + summary)

Outcome: Provodnikov defeats Alvarado by RTD at the end of the 10th round to become interim WBO light welterweight champion
Judge Scorecards (at time of stoppage): Dennis Nelson 97-90 | Robert Hoyle 98-90 | Levi Martinez 96-92

Master Class Boxing Scorecard: 96-93 (Provodnikov)

(click here to view CompuBox PunchStats)

Round-by-Round Scoring Recap

Round 1: Clear round for Provodnikov. Provodnikov moving really well, cutting off ring and applying pressure much better than I thought he would vs. the more mobile Alvarado. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 10-9 Provodnikov

Round 2: Alvarado moving much better in this round, using his jab to keep Provodnikov at bay. This was how I expected Alvarado to come out and fight. Clear round for Alvarado. For the most part in the first 5-6 rounds, Alvarado did successfully outbox Provodnikov with lateral movement and timely jabs and combinations which I'd thought would be his formula to winning this fight. 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 19-19 Even

Round 3: 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 29-28 Alvarado

Round 4:  10-10, Score: 39-38 Alvarado

Round 5:  10-9 Alvarado, Score: 49-47 Alvarado

Round 6: Provodnikov landed the more vicious shots in this round, but was clearly outworked by Alvarado. 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 59-56 Alvarado

Round 7: Alvarado won the first half of the round staying busy behind his jab but Provodnikov tagged Alvarado with a series of vicious shots throughout the second half of the round to take Round 7. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 68-66 Alvarado

Round 8: Provodnikov's pressure proves to be too overwhelming for Alvarado. Alvarado down twice in this round, the first two times he's been knocked down in his career. To his credit, Alvarado got up and fought very bravely but this was the beginning of the end for him. 10-7 Provodnikov, Score: 76-75 Provodnikov

Round 9:  Provodnikov continues to apply heavy pressure on Alvarado. Alvarado's recovered a bit from the two knockdowns in the previous round but is having difficulty withstanding the pressure. Clear round for Provodnikov. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 86-84 Provodnikov

Round 10:  Another clear round for Provodnikov. Alvarado is still attempting to move and jab (which he had success with in the earlier rounds) but Provodnikov's pressure is too much. Alvarado is getting tagged with body shots and combinations. Alvarado hits Provodnikov with a few solid shots but Provodnikov walks right through his punches and keeps attacking. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 96-93 Provodnikov

In between the 10th and 11th rounds, Alvarado retires on his stool.

Postfight Summary

Prediction: Alvarado by decision
Outcome: Provodnikov by RTD

I predicted the outcome of this fight incorrectly but the dynamics of the fight were generally what I expected. In my prefight analysis summary, I said the fight would come down to Alvarado's lateral movement and ability to box effectively on the outside vs. Provodnikov's high-pressure, power punching style. I felt that Alvarado would likely earn the decision by using his foot speed advantage to box outside and keep Provodnikov at bay with his length and power, but that there was a decent chance Provodnikov's pressure would overwhelm Alvarado resulting in Provodnikov getting the win by TKO/KO.

After Round 1 it was clear to me that I: 1) underestimated Provodnikov's lateral movement and ability to pressure more mobile fighters and 2) overestimated Alvarado's foot speed and ability to keep Provodnikov at bay. Provodnikov cut off the ring extremely well in this round and set the tone for how he'd wear Alvarado down round by round. I'd thought Alvarado would be able to use lateral movement and boxing skills to carry the fight similar to Tim Bradley in his more successful rounds vs. Provodnikov and similar to his second fight vs. Brandon Rios. The problem with my analysis was that Mike Alvarado does not have anywhere near the lateral movement and boxing skills Tim Bradley has and Provodnikov is a better pressure fighter than Rios and packs an even harder punch (especially when going to the body).

Alvarado actually did have a lot of success early in the fight boxing on the outside, confusing Provodnikov by switching to a southpaw stance and keeping Provodnikov honest with lead right hands and uppercuts (after 6 rounds I actually had Alvarado winning the fight by 3 points), but Provodnikov's foot movement and ability to cut Alvarado off in the ring was a lot better than what I thought it would be. Alvarado was outlanding Provodnikov in most of the early rounds, but Provodnikov wore Alvarado down round-by-round with vicious power shots and eventually caught up to him in the 8th round, knocking him down twice (the first two knockdowns of Alvarado's career) in what would signal the beginning of the end of the fight.

Another key to Provodnikov winning the fight was his excellent chin. There were a few spots in the early rounds of the fight where Alvarado did stand in and brawl; Alvarado actually had good success in most of these exchanges and landed nearly half (49.7%) of his power punches over the first six rounds of the fight. The difference in the fight was that Provodnikov's chin was able to withstand those power punches (he actually laughed many of them off), while Provodnikov's power eventually broke Alvarado down.

This was a highly entertaining fight which should leave fight fans looking forward to seeing both Provodnikov and Alvarado (especially Provodnikov) fight again. Provodnikov has proven that he's a better boxer than a lot of people give him credit for and, under Freddie Roach's tutelage, the sky's the limit.  However, it remains to be seen whether Provodnikov can defeat the uber-elite boxers in his weight range (Mayweather, Pacquaio, Bradley, Marquez, Garcia, Matthysse). Provodnikov's defense is still very suspect... Alvarado did land 46% of his power shots in the fight while Bradley landed 43% of his power shots in his fight vs. Provodnikov back in March. As outstanding as Provodnikov's chin is (and it's possible he has the best chin in the sport), he will never be an elite boxer if he continues to allow his opponents to land power punches at such a high percentage. His defense must improve, especially given the plethora of power punchers in the light welterweight and welterweight divisions he fights in. 

Hope you enjoyed this blog! Our next analysis will discuss the October 19th fight between Bernard Hopkins and Karo Murat.

Alvarado vs. Provodnikov: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Mike Alvarado (34-1, 23 KOs) vs. Ruslan Provodnikov (22-2, 15 KOs)
Location: 1STBANK Center, Broomfield, Denver, Colorado
Date: October 19, 2013
Weight class: Light Welterweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: (Interim) WBO Light Welterweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Alvarado -120, Provodnikov +100 (5 Dimes, 10/19/13)
Purse: Alvarado: $1.3 million, Provodnikov: $600,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarado #3 ranked junior welterweight, Provodnikov #6 ranked junior welterweight
Style: Alvarado: Orthodox, Provodnikov: Orthodox

Positives for Alvarado

• Aggressive boxer-puncher with very good punching power. Versatile boxer who can brawl but has very solid boxing skills. Much more versatile boxer than Provodnikov.
• The fight is taking place in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, where the crowd will be decidedly pro-Alvarado.
• Alvarado has excellent stamina, which may play an important role given that the fight is taking place in Denver. (In high altitude cities such as Denver, low air pressure makes it more difficult to breathe.) Alvarado's stamina generally allows him to finish strong in the later rounds of fights.
• Alvarado is not a great technician but has better boxing skills, and much better lateral movement and speed than Provodnikov.
• Alvarado is the more experienced fighter who has beaten every fighter he has faced. (Alvarado's lone loss was in October, 2012 to Brandon Rios, a loss which he avenged 5 months later.) 
• While he did lose by TKO to Rios, Alvarado has shown a good chin throughout his career. Alvarado has never been knocked down in a fight.
• Although they are fighting at the same weight, Alvarado is a naturally taller, bigger man than Provodnikov. He will likely come in to the fight weighing a bit more than Provodnikov. Alvarado also has a 3" reach advantage which he may use to stay outside and outbox Provodnikov.

Negatives for Alvarado

•  Alvarado's defense, while better than Provodnikov's, is far from great. This and his inclination at times to brawl (rather than box) in fights may leave him wide open to Provodnikov's vicious body and head shots. Provodnikov hits harder than Rios (who beat Alvarado by TKO), so if Alvarado doesn't protect himself it could get ugly for him. Alvarado is by no means a defensive-minded fighter so there may be at least a couple spots in the fight where he gets himself into serious trouble.
• Has Alvarado fully recovered from the Rios fights? While Alvarado has shown a very good chin in the past, there are questions as to how he's been affected by the two brutal wars he's had over the past year with Rios. Boxers have a history of losing confidence and becoming gun shy after wars such as the ones he had with Rios. 
• Alvarado has good boxing skills, but he's far from a master technician. Alvarado doesn't have the skills or lateral movement ability of Timothy Bradley, a fighter Provodnikov had some success against and almost beat. The skill disparity between Alvarado and Provodnikov isn't so great that Provodnikov won't be able to make adjustments and even find spots where he may be able to outbox Alvarado.

Positives for Provodnikov

• Very good pressure fighter with an excellent punch. Superb inside boxer who hits hard to the body. Has the ability to knockout any opponent at any time. Knocked Timothy Bradley (who has an excellent chin) down for the first time in his career in the 12th round of their fight. Almost pulled out a victory against Bradley, who is currently ranked the #3 pound-for-pound boxer in the world. 
• Excellent chin. Has never been knocked down in his career.
• Spent some time training for the fight with Freddie Roach, a trainer known for helping boxers improve lateral movement, foot speed, and defense - advantages Alvarado currently possesses over Provodnikov.
• Very humble, likeable boxer who appears to have tremendous inner strength and will to win.
• Provodnikov's fights are always competitive. His only two losses were close, controversial decisions.
• Provodnikov's boxing skills, while not as good as Alvarado's, are underrated. He has shown some ability in previous fights to adapt to his opponent's fighting style and make necessary adjustments.

Negatives for Provodnikov

• Lacks speed and mobility. This was the difference in his loss vs. Bradley. Alvarado has the speed and lateral movement advantage vs. Provodnikov, something Provodnikov will have to find a way to overcome if he wants to win this fight.
• Provodnikov's boxing skills are underrated, but he is not as skilled or as experienced as Alvarado is as a fighter.
• Provodnikov is fighting in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, facing a hostile pro-Alvarado crowd and high altitude air he isn't used to.
• Other than Bradley, who has Provodnikov really fought? Provodnikov's most well-known previous opponents have been journeyman DeMarcus "Chop Chop" Corley and Mauricio Herrera, a fighter he lost to by unanimous (though very close) decision. (Alvarado beat Maricio Herrera fairly convincingly a little over a year after Herrera beat Provodnikov.)
• Swells/cuts very easily. Could be an issue as the fight progresses.
• Provodnikov is only 5'6", a few inches shorter than Alvarado. Alvarado is also the naturally bigger man with a 3" reach advantage. 

Prefight Summary

Like Bradley after the Provodnikov fight, I believe Alvarado learned his lesson after the first Rios fight on when to brawl vs. when to box. Alvarado lost the first Rios fight by brawling but won the rematch by staying outside and using lateral movement and his skill advantage to outbox Rios. I see Alvarado fighting the same kind of fight he fought in the second Rios fight to elude Provodnikov's pressure and get the decision.

Provodnikov hits even harder than the power punching Rios and certainly poses a significant threat against a defensively mediocre Alvarado, but Provodnikov is smaller, less mobile, and doesn't have the workrate or hand speed Rios used to stay competitive vs. Alvarado. Provodnikov has more than a puncher's chance to win this fight, and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him win by KO... especially considering Alvarado's natural inclination to brawl when facing tremendous pressure. But Alvarado fought smart and largely resisted his inclination to brawl in the second Rios fight... I see no reason why he wouldn't do the same against Provodnikov. Alvarado's stamina is outstanding so I don't see Provodnikov catching a tired Alvarado with a lucky punch in later rounds.

Provodnikov will have his moments but Alvarado's mobility, skill advantage, experience, and motivation to fight well in front of a raucous home crowd should carry the day. Provodnikov has a puncher's chance to win by KO, especially if Alvarado decides to engage in a brawl, but the most likely outcome of this fight is Alvarado by decision.

Prediction: Alvarado by decision