Broner vs. Molina: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Adrien Broner (29-1, 22 KOs) vs. John Molina Jr. (27-5, 22 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: March 7, 2015
Weight class: Junior welterweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: NBC
Line: Broner -650, Molina +535 (5 Dimes, 3/7/15)
Purse: Broner: $1.25 million, Molina: $450,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Broner: #7 ranked welterweight, Molina: Not ranked
Style: Broner: Orthodox, Molina: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd


Positives for Broner
Negatives for Broner
Positives for Molina
Negatives for Molina
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Broner

• Former 3-time world champion in three different weight divisions (super featherweight, lightweight, and welterweight). At 23 years old, was the youngest boxer in history to be a world champion in three different divisions when he won the WBA welterweight championship vs. Paulie Malignaggi in 2013. Has been ranked as high as #6 in the Ring Magazine's pound-for-pound rankings. A top-level talent with the potential for a hall-of-fame career.
• 25-year old fighter in the prime of his career with excellent agility and hand speed combined with very good power. Slick, skilled technician who is adept with both counter punching and come-forward aggression. Good at cutting off the ring vs. opponents.
• Has a 29-1 record, with his lone loss being a December 2013 unanimous decision loss to Marcos Maidana. Has defeated former world champions such as Malignaggi, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Antonio DeMarco, and Gavin Rees - all tougher and more skilled opponents than Molina. In defeating DeMarco, defeated the then #1 lightweight contender who had beat Molina by 1st round TKO a couple months earlier in September 2012.
• Is low-volume at times, but is a very efficient, accurate puncher with good KO power in both hands (22 of his 29 wins have come by KO.) Has an effective jab and is a very good combination puncher.
• Despite his showing vs. Maidana, has overall solid defensive skills. Adept with both the shoulder roll and high guard defense. Slips and rolls punches fairly well in the pocket and is generally a difficult boxer to hit cleanly. 
• Very good at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Throws accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body.
• Is by far the superior athlete in this fight with superior technical skills and boxing IQ. Has the ability to make technical adjustments in the ring over the course of a fight. Precise puncher with much quicker reflexes than Molina so should be able to consistently beat Molina to the punch.
• Although he has frequently displayed immature antics both inside and outside the ring, Broner appears to have matured and noticeably toned down his antics in recent months.

Negatives for Broner

•  Has been exposed as a possibly overrated boxer in recent fights. Although he's beaten multiple former world champions, Broner may not be ready to contend vs. true top-level competition. In Broner's toughest test, he was decisively beaten (including getting knocked down twice) by Marcos Maidana, a pressure fighter with very good power but somewhat limited boxing skill relative to Broner. Molina is also a pressure fighter with very good power and limited boxing skill; if Broner doesn't use his feet he could get caught the same way he was caught multiple times vs. Maidana. In addition to the Maidana loss was unimpressive in both his May 2014 unanimous decision victory vs. Carlos Molina (where a knockout was expected) and his surprisingly close (though entertaining) unanimous decision victory vs. Emmanuel Taylor last September.    
• Low-volume puncher who is prone to getting out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. (Given his issues with fitness and making weight, Broner's low volume may be indicative of a stamina problem.) In five of Broner's last six fights, Broner has fallen behind in early rounds - even against clearly inferior competition.
• While Broner has good foot speed, his wide-legged stance tends to leave him flat-footed in the ring. Broner's resulting lack of mobility makes it easier for opponents to exert pressure and land scoring punches against him, even if those punches aren't landing cleanly.  
• Broner has fairly good defensive skills, but his defense does contain flaws, as clearly seen in his loss vs. Maidana. Broner is flat-footed and prefers to block punches with his hands and high guard rather than utilize foot movement. Broner's somewhat stationary defensive style provided ample opportunity for a power puncher like Maidana (and perhaps a power puncher like Molina in tonight's fight) to tee off and land big shots. Molina was able to catch heavily favored and previously undefeated fighters Hank Lundy and Mickey Bey - both of whom are more mobile than Broner - late in fights to win by TKO/KO so could conceivably catch Broner as well. 
• Broner's power at lighter weights hasn't carried up to the junior welterweight (140 lbs) and welterweight (147) divisions. Broner scored a TKO/KO victory in 22 out of his first 27 fights when fighting below 140 lbs (including a stretch of 16 out of 17 fights by TKO/KO) but has not scored a victory by TKO/KO in any of his last four fights, which have all been fought at 140 or 147. Molina is a big junior welterweight with a good chin, so tough to envision Broner getting the TKO/KO victory here.
• Has shown a lack of discipline in certain aspects of the fight game. Is generally overweight and out-of-shape when not training for fights, which often results in him having trouble making weight. (Broner has failed to make weight for multiple fights, including tonight's fight vs. Molina.) He's displayed unprofessional and immature behavior both inside and outside the ring and at times has even ignored his corner's instructions (most notably after falling behind on the scorecards vs. Maidana).  

Positives for Molina

• Former WBC USNBC and WBO NABO lightweight champion. Relatively tall, lanky pressure fighter with very good power in both hands - especially his right hand which has single-handedly earned him late round TKO/KO victories vs. heavily favored opponents who decisively outboxed him in the earlier rounds. 22 out of Molina's 27 wins (including his last 14 wins) have come by TKO/KO. Is a big boxer for 140 lbs and will have a size, height, and reach advantage vs. Broner.
• Patient, low-volume brawler; prefers to block his opponents' punches with his high guard from the inside and counter punch with power shots. Is selective with his punches but has legitimate one-punch KO power. Good body puncher who loops his punches from unpredictable angles. (Broner's lone loss was to Maidana who, like Molina, is a come-forward power punching brawler who can throw punches, in particular the overhand right, from unpredictable angles.)
• Despite having 5 losses on his record (including his last two fights) and having never won a world title, Molina is a respected and feared lighweight due to his punching power. Molina's signature punch is his overhand right, but he also has a devastating left hook. Used his punching power to shock previously undefeated and heavily favored fighters Hank Lundy and Mickey Bey in late rounds, as well as knock down highly regarded lightweight Lucas Matthysse twice in a thrilling fight that won nearly every Fight of the Year award for 2014. 
• Durable fighter with a good chin and very good stamina. One of only five fighters (out of 39) to make either it into the 11th round or last the entire fight vs. Matthysse.
• Determined boxer who fights with tremendous heart. Coming off of two straight losses, will be highly motivated to win this fight and retain his status as a spoiler for top-level opposition. Molina has considered retirement in the recent past and knows that a loss here could be the beginning of the end for his career.

Negatives for Molina

• There is a reason why Molina is not a ranked junior welterweight and has never won a world title. Skillwise, Molina is a limited fighter - a one dimensional brawler with slow reflexes, low boxing IQ, and lack of solid fundamentals likely attributable to the fact that he didn't start boxing until he was 17. Molina has consistently been outboxed by even decent B-level fighters, with his best wins coming as a result of what could be considered lucky punches in the late rounds of fights his opponents got complacent in due to being way ahead on the scorecards. Broner will be the most skilled and talented fighter Molina has fought in a career where he's already lost decisively to lesser fighters. 
• Has lost four out of his last seven fights, including his last two - all vs. opponents not as skilled as Broner. Molina's lone title fight was a first round TKO loss in September 2012 vs. Antonio DeMarco, an opponent Broner defeated two months later by 8th round TKO.
• Some will point to Broner's loss to Maidana as a possible blueprint for Molina pulling of the upset vs. Broner. Like Maidana, Molina is also an aggressive power puncher. Molina, however, is a low-volume counter puncher (in contrast to Maidana's high volume, lead puncher style) and is not nearly as skilled as Maidana.
• Molina is a defensively suspect brawler who, due to slow hand speed and reflexes, is generally easy to hit and beat to the punch. Although he's only been a pro for 9 years, at 31 years old Molina has been in some brutal wars (most notably the Matthysse fight) that have likely taken a physical toll on him. 31 isn't necessarily old but the boxing lifespan of a brawler with limited defense is generally much shorter than the lifespan of other boxers. 
• Although Molina has a good chin, he has been stopped twice in the past 2.5 years. The stoppages came at the hands of the two best opponents Molina has fought to date - DeMarco and Matthysse. 

Prefight Summary

John Molina has a puncher's chance in every fight he's in. Despite his limited skill, Molina did find a way to stay very competitive last year in his thriller vs. Lucas Matthysse, one of the most feared power punchers in boxing. He did find a way to beat heavily-favored blue-chip contenders Mickey Bey (the current IBF lightweight champion of the world and considered by many the best fighter under the Mayweather Promotions imprint other than Floyd himself) and Hank Lundy by TKO/KO in the late rounds of fights he was losing decisively. Both Bey and Lundy utilize foot movement more than the relatively flat-footed Broner, who is often content to stay in the pocket within range of his opponent to pick off punches. Broner has quicker reflexes and better defense than Bey or Lundy but if Molina can land the right shot (i.e., land one of his flush overhand rights on Broner), then Molina could be well on his way to replicating Maidana's upset of Broner in 2013 and scoring by far the biggest win of his career on primetime national TV. I actually think Molina would be well served to take risks in this fight with the intent of knocking Broner out; Molina has a good chin and was able to last 11 rounds vs. the most feared puncher at 140 lbs in Matthysse so I'd expect he'll be able to go the distance vs. Broner, whose power hasn't translated nearly as much at 140 lbs as it had in lower weight divisions.

Despite the threat of Molina's power, the disparity in talent, speed, and skill between Broner and Molina is just too much to overlook. Molina has been thoroughly outboxed by much lesser boxers than Broner; I see no reason why - other than a lucky punch from Molina - an A-level talent such as Broner wouldn't be able to dominate Molina the same way solid B-level boxers generally have. Especially with the speed disparity, I don't see a low-volume puncher like Molina catching Broner, even with Broner's flat-footed tendencies. I see Broner easily picking off Molina's shots and countering with precise power shots of his own that, over the course of several rounds, could even result in a surprising stoppage.

But, given Molina's sturdy chin and the fact that Broner's knockout power in lower weight divisions hasn't translated well to higher weights, I like Broner by wide unanimous decision. The only thing preventing Broner from an easy victory here is the same sort of carelessness defensively Molina was able to take advantage of late in his fights vs. Bey and Lundy.

Prediction: Broner by decision 

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