Golovkin vs. Jacobs: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Gennady Golovkin (36-0, 33 KOs) vs. Daniel Jacobs (32-1, 29 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: March 18, 2017
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World middleweight, WBA Super World middleweight, and IBF World middleweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Golovkin -825, Jacobs +650 (5 Dimes, 3/17/17)
Purse: Golovkin: $2.5 million, Jacobs: $1.75 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin: #4 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked middleweight, Jacobs: #2 ranked middleweight
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Jacobs: Orthodox
Referee: Charlie Fitch (other notable fights: Lemieux vs. Stevens, Froch vs. Groves I, Golovkin vs. Proksa)

Why you should watch this fight

This is a fight between the two best middleweight boxers in the world - who also happen to be two of the best knockout artists in the sport - that is virtually guaranteed to be an action-packed matchup. Saturday night will be a middleweight title unification bout between the undefeated WBA (Super), WBC, and IBF middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin - arguably the top fighter in boxing pound-for-pound - vs. WBA (Regular) middleweight champion Daniel Jacobs - a 32-1 fighter who hasn't lost a fight in over 6.5 years and is by far Golovkin's toughest middleweight opponent to date.

The winner of this fight will be the unified WBA, WBC, and IBF middleweight champion of the world and will be well on his way to becoming the first undisputed middleweight champion in over a decade (Jermain Taylor, 2006), pending a possible fight with undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders later this year.

Golovkin has won 33 out of his 36 professional fights - including his last 23(!) fights - by stoppage for a KO% of 92%, the highest KO% in middleweight boxing history. Every fight scheduled for longer than 8 rounds in Golovkin's professional career (10 or 12 rounds) has ended in stoppage. But Jacobs is a top-level boxer who has elite punching power in his own right, having won 29 out of his 33 professional fights - including his last 12 fights - by stoppage for a very impressive KO% of 88%. Jacobs - who just five years ago survived a rare form of bone cancer (which at one point left him unable to walk) to win a middleweight title in 2014 - will be fighting in his hometown of New York City. where he is 9-0 as a fighter (with all 9 of those victories coming via early-round stoppage).

Given the combination of world-class boxing skills and elite knockout power possessed by both fighters, this should be an electric one while it lasts.

The undercard of this fight features undefeated, current Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound boxer Roman "Chocolatito" Gonzalez, a four-weight division champion who will be defending his super flyweight championship vs. Thai fighter Wisaksil Wangek.

Prefight Analysis

Many would consider Danny Jacobs to be a live underdog in this fight, especially given the sizable (+650) odds on him to upset Golovkin. He's won 12 straight fights - all by TKO/KO - and has looked impressive in most of those fights. He's a big middleweight with a decent size advantage over Gennady. Jacobs has faster hands and faster feet than Golovkin, and is one of the very few middleweights out there with the punching power to stop him. Jacobs is a versatile fighter with the skills to fight Golovkin from close range - a tactic which may be necessary to mitigate Golovkin's ability to generate punching power from distance - but also has the skills to box on his feet. Given Jacob's 3" reach advantage in this matchup, he may have some success boxing Golovkin from distance.

Jacobs is (perhaps by far) Golovkin's toughest opponent to date so you can't completely write him off, especially given that he will be fighting in front of a lot of friendly supporters in his hometown of New York City and the fact that, in life, he has defeated a much tougher opponent than Golovkin in overcoming a rare form of bone cancer that was expected to end his boxing career (and possibly his ability to walk or even his life).

But despite Jacob's advantages, particularly in size and speed, I think his deficit of a questionable chin vs. Golovkin's potentially all-time great punching power will be too much for even a fighter nicknamed the "Miracle Man" to overcome. Jacob's only loss of his professional career came via early-round stoppage vs. Dmitry Pirog, another Soviet boxer who - like Golovkin will attempt to do Saturday night - was able to effectively cut off the ring early and apply pressure vs. a mostly retreating Jacobs (though Jacobs was able to win arguably win three out of the first four rounds on the scorecards). Pirog, now a politician in Russia (his career ended early due to a debilitating back injury), was a highly talented, potentially elite boxer but did not have the skills or punching power of Golovkin.

Jacobs was also knocked down in the first round of his August 2015 fight vs. Sergio Mora, a notoriously feather-fisted puncher who has only 9 wins by TKO/KO in 35 career fights (for a KO% of 26%).

The knockdowns vs. Pirog and Mora don't necessarily prove that Jacobs is weak-chinned, but in assessing an elite pound-for-pound fighter in Golovkin - who has a middleweight-record 92% of his wins (including the last 23 wins) coming via TKO/KO - vs. a skilled but somewhat predictable fighter in Jacobs who has a questionable chin, you'd have to (strongly) favor Golovkin's proven power.

Jacobs has elite power of his own to be sure, but Golovkin has proven to have one of the best - if not the best - chins in boxing, having never been knocked down or knocked out in 386(!) fights as an amateur or pro. Golovkin has already very easily handled a fighter with comparable power to Jacobs (in David Lemieux) and also already easily handled a much more skilled fighter than Jacobs (in his last fight vs. Kell Brook, a fighter many would rate as top 10-15 pound-for-pound). Golovkin has also fought faster, more elusive fighters than Jacobs (see Willie Monroe Jr. as an example), yet had no problems cutting off the ring and catching up to them en route early-round TKO/KO victories.

Golovkin's combination of pressure and skill is special and unmatched in the boxing game right now. There will be quite a few spots in this fight where Golovkin and Jacobs trade punches -  you have to favor Golovkin's impressive power (and ability to generate that power from unpredictable angles) vs. Jacob's questionable chin over Jacob's also elite, if not somewhat straightforward, power vs. Golovkin's seemingly impeccable chin. Only 2 of Golovkin's 33 knockout victims have lasted past 8 rounds: Martin Murray - who had never been knocked down or knocked out in a fight prior to getting knocked down 3 times and stopped in the 11th round in his February 2015 fight vs. Golovkin - and  Kassim Ouma, who was known for having a great chin in his prime. (Ouma was stopped in the 10th round of a close, competitive fight with Golovkin back in June 2011.)

Given this, I think that the best bet on this fight is Golovkin by TKO/KO in the early to mid rounds. But - given that Golovkin has never faced a fighter with Jacob's combination of skill and power and, given the fact that Jacobs is one of the few fighters Golovkin has fought that has a clear size advantage over him, I think it's also worth "hedging" this bet to an extent with a bet on the fight to last under 7.5 rounds. Golovkin will likely respect Jacob's power early (as he did vs. Lemieux) and won't necessarily apply full pressure until he establishes a read on Jacobs; this period of the fight would be Jacob's best chance to jump on Golovkin and land that punch (or combination of punches) that stops Golovkin early (which IMO may be the only way he can win this fight). Note that this "hedge" also wins if Golovkin stops Jacobs early.

I will be betting on Golovkin to win the fight in the first 6 rounds (at approximately +120 odds) but an alternate bet to very strongly consider is to instead bet Golovkin to win in rounds 4-6 as well as Golovkin to win in rounds 7-9. This bet will return roughly 15% more profit than betting on Golovkin to win in the first 6 rounds if Golovkin wins in rounds 4-6, and will return roughly 35% more profit than betting on Golovkin to win in the first 6 rounds if Golovkin wins in rounds 7-9. The downside to this alternative bet is it doesn't cover Golovkin winning within the first 3 rounds, though I suspect Golovkin will fight more cautiously during that period of the fight anyway as he develops his read on Jacobs. (This alternative does, however, cover some of the later rounds of the fight in case the fight lasts a bit longer than expected.)

The combination bet of Golovkin to win in rounds 4-6 and 7-9 may actually be the slightly more prudent bet given Golovkin's anticipated early round strategy, but I'm going with Golovkin to win in the first 6 rounds for simplicity and because I have serious doubts whether Jacob's chin can hold up even through the first three rounds.

In any case, I'll be in New York City for this fight and am looking forward to an electric, post-St. Patrick's Day fight crowd as well as an overall fantastic card, which includes top pound-for-pound fighter Roman "Chocolatito" Gonzalez. Good luck!

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO

Recommended bets: 
1) Golovkin wins in rounds 1-6 (.5 unit)
[or alternative combination bet of Golovkin wins in rounds 4-6 (.25 unit) and Golovkin wins in rounds 7-9 (.25 unit)]
2) Golovkin/Jacobs U 7.5 rounds (.5 unit)

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Thurman vs. Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Keith Thurman (27-0, 22 KOs) vs. Danny Garcia (33-0, 19 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: March 4, 2017
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight and WBA Super World welterweight titles
TV: CBS
Line: Thurman -220, Garcia +200 (5 Dimes, 3/4/17)
Purse: Thurman: $2 million, Garcia: $2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Thurman: #2 ranked welterweight, Garcia: #7 ranked welterweight
Style: Thurman: Orthodox, Garcia: Orthodox
Referee: Michael Griffin

Why you should watch this fight

This is a key matchup in what right now is probably the most stacked weight class division in boxing. Thurman vs. Garcia will be just the 3rd fight in boxing history to match two undefeated welterweights in a unification title fight. (The previous matchup being the 1999 superfight vs. undefeated welterweight champions Oscar De La Hoya and Felix Trinidad.)

Thurman vs. Garcia will also be just the 2nd fight in nearly 40 years to air on CBS in primetime - the 1st fight being Thurman's victory last June vs. Shawn Porter in a classic that was widely considered a fight of the year candidate for 2016.

Prior to these two fights, the last fight to air on CBS in primetime was Leon Spinks'  split-decision upset victory vs. Muhammad Ali, the 1978 Ring Magazine Fight of the Year that gave Ali only the 3rd loss of his career and 1st loss since losing to Ken Norton nearly five years prior.

The winner of this fight will stand alongside Manny Pacquiao as arguably the top welterweight in boxing and - given Floyd Mayweather's recent retirement as well as Pacquiao's gradual but inevitable transition from boxer to full-time Philippine politician - is positioned to become one of the prominent faces of the division for years to come.

Along with the Pacquiao vs. Amir Khan and Kell Brook vs. Errol Spence fights tentatively scheduled for later this spring, Thurman vs. Garcia will go a long way towards clarifying who the top fighter is in what is probably the most talent-laden division in the sport.

Why Keith Thurman will win

Thurman is an undefeated fighter who has been the WBA welterweight champion since 2013. He's an aggressive boxer-puncher with good foot movement and one punch KO power in both hands. (Thurman has won 22 of his 27 pro fights by TKO/KO for an impressive KO% of 79%) At 28 years old, Thurman is in his prime and is highly confident coming off what was by far the best win of his career in last year's unanimous decision victory over top welterweight Shawn Porter.

 Aside from his natural power and athleticism, Thurman is a very thoughtful, highly intelligent boxer
who has noticeable advantages in size, speed, and mobility over Garcia. Thurman had a lot of success using foot movement to stay out of range vs. the herky-jerky ambush style of Porter; one would expect he will have even more success evading the power of the relatively flat-footed, more predictable Garcia.

Thurman has much more experience at welterweight than Garcia - he has fought essentially his entire career at 147 lbs or higher, while this will only be Garica's 4th fight at welterweight. Thurman at this point is fairly battle-tested at 147 with experience vs. some good power punchers in the division, while Garcia's toughest tests at 147 have been vs. Robert Guerrero and Paulie Malignaggi - both of whom are well past their prime. Although Garcia has two TKO victories in his three fights at welterweight, it's still unclear how well his proven power at 140 lbs will carry up vs. the top welterweights at 147; Thurman appears to be the naturally stronger fighter with the superior punching power in this matchup.

Like Thurman, Garcia is also undefeated but two of his recent victories (vs. Lamont Peterson and Mauricio Herrera - neither of whom are as highly regarded as Thurman) have been controversial, majority decision victories that many felt he lost. Garcia is a skilled, well-rounded fighter but has not proven to be an elite technician and is prone to being outboxed in large stretches of fights - including the later rounds of his fights vs. Peterson and Herrera, the early rounds of his 1st fight vs. a past prime Erik Morales, the early rounds of his fight vs. Khan, and even his split-decision victory vs. Ashley Theophane back in 2010 (a fight some felt Theophane won).

As proven in some of the fights noted above, boxers with solid jabs and good movement can frustrate Garcia's typically slow and flat-footed counterpunching style. If Thurman can establish his jab and use movement to evade Garcia's dangerous counterpunching ability, it will be extremely difficult for Garcia to win a 12 round decision given Thurman's seemingly superior size, speed, punching power, and boxing IQ - not to mention his advantage in experience at 147 lbs.

As a final point, it's worth noting that many seem to be overlooking the fact that Thurman's trainer is two-time Boxing Writers Association of America (BWAA) trainer of the year Dan Birmingham - a world class trainer who has trained the likes of former undisputed light middleweight champion Winky Wright and former Olympian and super middleweight champion Jeff Lacy. Birmingham and Thurman have known since early October that Garcia would be their next fight and have had a few months to game plan and prepare for the matchup.

Why Danny Garcia will win

Like Thurman, Garcia is also an undefeated fighter in his prime and has been a world champion in two different weight classes, unifying titles at junior welterweight (140 lbs) before moving up to win the vacant WBC welterweight championship vs. Robert Guerrero last year.

Garcia is a patient and poised counterpuncher who has overachieved considerably in becoming an undefeated, two-division world champion and one of the best boxers in the world pound for pound. Garcia has consistently risen to the occasion to beat top world-class opponents such as Lamont Peterson, Erik Morales (twice), Amir Khan, and Lucas Matthysse. Garcia was a +500 underdog in his 2012 title unification bout vs. Khan, who he knocked down 3 times en route to a 4th round TKO victory and was as high as a +250 underdog vs. feared power puncher Matthysse, who he scored a knockdown against en route to a clear but competitive unanimous decision victory in the co-main event of the Mayweather/Canelo card in 2013. Garcia actually enters Saturday's fight as a smaller underdog (+200) than he was vs. either Khan or Matthysse.

Despite only having 19 KOs in 33 fights (57.6 KO%), Garcia's punching power is dangerous and very underrated. Garcia has knocked down 8 of his last 11 opponents over the past 5 years, knocking them down  a total of 11 times in that span. Garcia's knockdowns often come courtesy of his left hook, which is by far his best punch and is considered by many to be one of the best left hooks - if not the best left hook - in the sport.

Garcia is a very effective, savvy counter puncher with pretty good hand speed and very good timing on his punches; so if he can land the right counters vs. Thurman's at-times reckless attack (in particular to the body where Thurman was badly hurt and nearly took a knee in his July 2015 fight vs. Luis Collazo) then Thurman could be in for a much tougher night than expected. Thurman was solid defensively in his last fight vs. Porter but in the past has occasionally shown a lack of discipline defensively, dropping his hands in inopportune spots which has left him exposed to clean counter punching (most notably vs. Diego Chaves and Jesus Soto Karass).

Garcia has a reputation for having one of the best chins in boxing (having never been knocked down or knocked out in his professional career), so at times may be able to risk trading shots with Thurman when he's in range - a scenario where you'd likely have to favor Garcia's chin over Thurman's despite Thurman's probable advantage in punching power.  

This fight is taking place in New York City, where the crowd is expected to be largely pro-Garcia. Garcia is of Puerto Rican descent (both of his parents are from Puerto Rico) and New York City is well-known for its large Puerto Rican population, with nearly a quarter of Puerto Ricans (over 1.2 million) in the United States living in the New York City metropolitan area. Garcia himself is originally from Philadelphia, which is less than a two hour drive from New York City; he is expected to have a large contingent of hometown supporters in the crowd Saturday night for the biggest fight of his career to date.

Garcia is a seemingly unflappable fighter who has risen to the occasion every time he's entered the ring as an underdog, not only winning but winning decisively - most recently vs. Matthysse on a huge stage in Las Vegas in the co-main event of what at the time became the highest grossing pay-per-view fight in boxing history (Mayweather vs. Canelo) - so you can never count him out.

Prefight Analysis

I like Keith Thurman to win this fight - probably by clear decision but possibly even by late stoppage. Thurman in my opinion has too many advantages in this fight for Garcia to overcome - size, foot speed, experience at welterweight, punching power, and boxing IQ. Considering the total package of skills Thurman brings to the fight and Garcia's relative inexperience at welterweight, this might be by far the toughest opponent Garcia has faced in his career.  

Garcia is a very solid fighter who - at least on paper - has some legitimately impressive wins as an underdog. But in taking a closer look at some of his fights vs. top-level opponents how impressive were those really? Garcia was getting decisively outboxed by Amir Khan but was able to get an early round TKO/KO victory against a fighter many consider to have the weakest chin of any top-level boxer in the modern era of boxing. Earlier in his career, Khan suffered a 1st round KO loss vs. 9-1 underdog Breidis Prescott, who went on to lose 4 of his next 7 fights after upsetting Khan.


Lucas Matthysse was one of the most feared power punchers in the sport at the time Garcia beat him, but has since proven to be somewhat overrated. After fighing Garcia, Matthysse was in a (surprisingly) highly competitive, fight of the year candidate vs. a B-level journeyman in John Molina Jr. who has lost 3 of his last 5 fights since facing Matthysse. And Matthysse lost by KO in his most recent fight vs. Viktor Postol, a top-level fighter but not a fighter known for his punching power. (Postol has only won 12 of this 29 career fights - 41% - by TKO/KO). Note that Matthysse has also never won a full world title belt and, with the exception of a 3rd round TKO/KO victory vs. Lamont Peterson, has lost to every top-level fighter he has faced - most notably Devon Alexander and rvrn a past prime Zab Judah.  

After fighting Matthysse, Garcia fought 9-1 underdog Mauricio Herrera in his family's homeland of Puerto Rico. Most who watched the fight felt Herrera beat Garcia, including the majority of the Puerto Rican crowd who largely booed the majority decision score for Garcia.

The following year, Lamont Peterson outboxed and dominated Garcia in the 2nd half of their fight in a controversial majority-decision loss, but probably came in to the fight with the wrong game plan by waiting to long to become the aggressor.

All other notable opposition Garcia has fought in recent years - Robert Guerrero, Paulie Malignaggi, and Erik Morales - were well past their prime (aged 32, 34, and 35 respectively) and years removed from being world title belt holders at the time they fought Garcia.

Garcia is a flat-footed, relatively low-volume fighter; I think Thurman is smart and skilled enough to exploit this by boxing Garcia from distance and using enough reach as to where Garcia's counter punching will be largely ineffective. Garcia's chances lie - as they did in his upset victory vs. Khan - primarily in his ability to time Thurman and land big punches but I don't see Thurman allowing Garcia to throw enough counters within range to pose a serious threat; I expect Thurman to mostly either stay out of Garcia's punching range or stay close enough inside to use his size advantage to smother Garcia's punches.

Thurman has the quicker hands, superior jab, and better foot movement so should be able to control the pace of the fight while Garcia waits for opportunities to counter. If Thurman controls the pace as I expect, I don't see any outcome other than a 9-3/8-4 type decision for Thurman (or even a late stoppage if Garcia is unable to handle Thurman's combination of movement and power). I strongly favor Thurman - and his array of advantages over Garcia - in this matchup.

In terms of betting, taking Thurman to win at any odds -230 or better suffices; but given Garcia's excellent chin I think one should strongly consider placing 25-50% of the wager on this fight on Thurman by 12 round decision (currently at +130). Other than a lucky punch, I don't see Garcia - as skilled and underrated as I think he is - having the movement or punch output over 12 rounds to outbox a guy with the physical tools, savvy, and skill of Thurman,- who I think was in much tougher in his previous fight vs. Shawn Porter (and passed that test with flying colors).

Prediction: Thurman to win

Recommended bets: 
1) Thurman to win (.75 unit)
2) Thurman by 12 round decision (.25 unit)

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Santa Cruz vs. Frampton II: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Leo Santa Cruz (32-1-1, 18 KOs) vs. Carl Frampton (23-0, 14 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: January 28, 2017
Weight class: Featherweight (126 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Featherweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Santa Cruz +160, Frampton -170 (5 Dimes, 1/28/17)
Purse: Santa Cruz: $900,000, Frampton: $1 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Santa Cruz: #4 ranked featherweight, Frampton: #10 ranked pound-for-pound, #2 ranked featherweight
Style: Santa Cruz: Orthodox, Frampton: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

This is a very highly anticipated rematch of what was universally considered one of the top two or three fights of 2016 - a fight in which undefeated and recently-crowned 2016 Ring Magazine, ESPN, and Boxing Writers Association of America (BWAA) fighter of the year Carl Frampton outpointed 3-1 favorite Leo Santa Cruz in a closely-contested, majority decision thriller. The win earned Frampton the previously undefeated Santa Cruz's WBA featherweight title (after Frampton had unified the WBA and IBF super bantamweight titles earlier in the year in a split decision victory vs. then undefeated Scott Quigg) and made him the first foreign-born fighter in 13 attempts to win a world title vs. an American-born fighter on U.S. soil.

Like their previous fight, this fight should be another classic matchup of quantity vs. quality between two top-rated boxers in their prime - the at times electric, punch-per-second Santa Cruz vs. the better-skilled, more accurate punching Frampton.

Punch for punch, Santa Cruz may be the most exciting fighter in the sport (CompuBox statistics consistently rate him among the top one or two fighters in the sport in terms of both punches thrown and punches landed), but he lost a very close majority decision in front of what was a decidedly pro-Frampton crowd at Barclays Center in New York City. The rematch will take place in Las Vegas, Nevada - a location only a few hours from Santa Cruz's hometown of Los Angeles where Santa Cruz's Mexican-American and Mexican fans are expected to have a much stronger presence.

 Will the slicker, craftier Frampton outbox Santa Cruz again to retain his featherweight title (and retain his status as possibly the top featherweight in the world) or will Santa Cruz's punch output in front of what should be more home-friendly confines in Las Vegas carry the day in his attempt to avenge the first loss of his career?

Why Leo Santa Cruz will win

Despite getting outboxed in their first fight last July, Santa Cruz is only a little worse than a 3-2 underdog in this rematch vs. Frampton. The first fight was very close, despite the massive Irish and Irish-American pro-Frampton contingent that appeared to dominate the Madison Square Garden crowd. (I was in attendance for the fight and scored it a 114-114 draw, while one of the three judges also scored the fight a draw.)

In Las Vegas - only a four hour drive from his hometown of Los Angeles - Santa Cruz should expect much more friendly crowd support from his Mexican and Mexican-American fanbase, especially given that Santa Cruz is arguably the most popular and high profile active boxer from nearby Los Angeles. The change in venue from a pro-Frampton arena to likely a pro-Santa Cruz one has a good chance of energizing Santa Cruz's efforts inside the ring and possibly influencing the judges' scoring outside the ring in favor of Santa Cruz. (I do feel the first fight was closer than the 117-111 and 116-112 scores that two of the three judges provided and - from being at the fight and experiencing the energy of the crowd in person - feel that the judges could've been affected in part by the raucous crowd support Frampton enjoyed at Madison Square Garden.)

Santa Cruz is a come-forward pressure fighter who suffered the first loss of his professional career in last July's fight vs. Frampton. Santa Cruz typically wins by overwhelming his opponents with an accumulation of  of punches (often throwing over 100 punches a round) thrown from a wide array of angles.

Per CompuBox stats, Santa Cruz threw exactly 50% more punches than Frampton in their first fight - throwing more punches than Frampton in each round - and landing more punches overall. Despite this, Santa Cruz lost a close decision, largely because in trying to initially be patient and box Frampton his punch output in the first five rounds of the fight was nearly 40% less (67.8 punches thrown per round) than it was over the last seven rounds of the fight (94.7 punches thrown per round). Given Santa Cruz's notoriously excellent stamina and Frampton's tendency to fade a bit in later rounds, it was not surprising to see Santa Cruz increase his punch activity in the middle and later rounds of the fight and win most of the late rounds vs. Frampton. Santa Cruz has a much better idea of what to expect in this fight so if he is less cautious and can pick up his punch activity early he stands a good chance of winning some of the early rounds he lost in the last fight - especially in front of what should be a much friendlier crowd in Vegas.

Santa Cruz is the naturally bigger fighter with a 7" reach advantage. Though Frampton generally landed the more accurate, cleaner power punches in their last fight the punches - with the exception of a couple in the early rounds - didn't seem to affect the bigger Santa Cruz too much. Santa Cruz has only been knocked down once in his professional career and was seemingly never in danger of being knocked down or stopped in last year's fight vs. Frampton. If Santa Cruz can use his reach advantage and keep his punch activity high in the face of Frampton's superior power and counter punching abilities I see him both outthrowing and outlanding Frampton by a larger margin than he did in the last fight, which in my opinion would likely lead to a decision victory for Santa Cruz even if Frampton is more accurate and lands most of the cleaner shots as he did in the last fight.

Santa Cruz dealt with a significant life distraction in his last fight vs. Frampton as his father Jose Santa Cruz - who has also been his lead trainer for his entire professional career - was suffering from and being treated for stage 3 bone cancer during prefight preparations. This distraction no doubt led to stress and lack of focus in preparing for the first fight. (Even Frampton admitted that Santa Cruz's father's cancer diagnosis likely affected Santa Cruz's mindset going into the last fight.) With Santa Cruz's father's cancer now in remission and with Santa Cruz's father fully dedicated to training duties (Santa Cruz's older brother Antonio assumed most of the lead trainer duties while his father underwent cancer treatment), one should expect a more focused and energized Santa Cruz in the rematch.

Why Carl Frampton will win

Why could Carl Frampton beat Santa Cruz? Well he is still undefeated and just beat Santa Cruz in his last fight this past July. In that fight, Frampton did outbox Santa Cruz and showed he was the more skilled, accurate, crafty boxer with faster hand speed and - despite being the smaller fighter - arguably better punching power. (He certainly hurt Santa Cruz more than Santa Cruz hurt him in the first fight.)

Despite Santa Cruz throwing 50% more punches, Frampton landed almost as many punches (242 for Frampton vs. 255 for Santa Cruz) and landed at a much higher percentage than Santa Cruz (36.2% of punches landed for Frampton vs. only 25.4% of punches landed for Santa Cruz) while landing the cleaner, more powerful punches in the process. Frampton not only landed at a higher percentage than Santa Cruz overall, he landed at a higher percentage in each of the 12 rounds of the fight. So despite the fact that the last fight was (correctly) considered close and competitive, it was arguably a dominant performance by Frampton over Santa Cruz in terms of pure boxing ability given the disparity in percentage and quality of punches landed. There's little reason to believe the technically superior Frampton won't again use his very good timing and accuracy to exploit Santa Cruz's often over-aggressive and sometimes sloppy pressure style with well-timed jabs and power punching as he did in the last fight.

Frampton appears to be the more intelligent, versatile boxer so appears to be the boxer who is more likely to make the proper adjustments from the previous fight. (Technically superior boxers generally fare better vs. less skilled fighters in rematches.) Frampton boxes much better on the move than Santa Cruz which - combined with his solid, stiff jab - should allow him to control distance vs. Santa Cruz despite Santa Cruz's 7" reach advantage.

Frampton's first fight vs. Santa Cruz took place in New York City in front of a pro-Frampton crowd littered with Irish and Irish-American supporters. Tonight's fight will be in Las Vegas - closer to Santa Cruz's hometown of Los Angeles - so Frampton likely won't enjoy the raucous support he enjoyed in New York City. But boxing fans from the United Kingdom are known for traveling extremely well; there will for sure be a huge, enthusiastic contingent of Irish traveling from overseas for the fight so while Santa Cruz will probably enjoy at least a slight advantage in crowd support, significant - and possibly louder - portions of the crowd will be pulling for Frampton. (So the Las Vegas location may not being as home-friendly for Santa Cruz as it may seem from the surface.)

Frampton is the more skilled boxer (arguably more skilled by a wide margin judging from the last fight) with advantages in accuracy, power, and speed and just beat Santa Cruz in their first fight only a few months ago; it will be difficuly for Santa Cruz to overcome all of these advantages to pull off the upset.

Prefight Analysis

I give Frampton a slight 55/45 edge in this rematch and think he *probably* beats Santa Cruz again. Despite the fact that I actually scored their first fight a draw, I thought Frampton clearly showed he was the better fighter by landing punches at a significantly higher percentage (including landing at a higher percentage in every single round of the fight) and landing the vast majority of the cleaner, more powerful punches. The fact that Frampton landed almost as many punches as Santa Cruz was impressive given that Santa Cruz threw 50% more punches in the fight. Frampton was the more accurate, crafty fighter; his slick foot movement and counterpunching skills were generally very effective vs. Santa Cruz's high-volume, hyper-aggressive punch output.

As the superior boxer, one would expect Frampton to do more of the same in tonight's fight. Frampton is a naturally reactive boxer who reads his opponents very well - after having already fought (and outboxed) Santa Cruz previously one would expect he'd be the fighter more apt to make the necessary adjustments to beat Santa Cruz even more decisively in a rematch.

Style-wise, I think Frampton holds so many advantages over Santa Cruz (skill, speed, accuracy, boxing IQ, power) that you have to grade him as at least a slight favorite to win the rematch.

But in terms of betting on the fight I actually feel the most value here is in betting on Santa Cruz to win by decision (currently at approximately 2.8-1 odds). The 2.8-1 odds on Santa Cruz to win by decision is theoretically a profitable bet if you think Santa Cruz wins by decision at least 26.5% of the time; I grade Santa Cruz's chances of winning by decision at closer to 40-45%, making this bet - at least in my estimation - a very solid value bet.

Despite Frampton mostly outboxing Santa Cruz in their first fight in landing the cleaner punches at a higher percentage, Santa Cruz did decisively outwork Frampton with his punch output - throwing more punches than Frampton in every round - and came on the latter part of the fight to win most of the late rounds. Despite Frampton's impressive boxing display vs. Santa Cruz's high-volume effort, the first fight was still a very close and competitive fight to the point where one of the judges scored the fight a draw. (I was at the fight and also scored the fight a draw and would even have been okay with a close decision to Santa Cruz given his success outworking and landing clean punches on Frampton in the later rounds.) If Santa Cruz gets off to a better start in the early rounds of tonight's fight (which I think stands a pretty good chance of happening - Santa Cruz can afford to risk being less cautious early as the smaller Frampton did not show a consistent ability to hurt him), I think the conditions of the fight are set up well for Santa Cruz to continue on and pull off the upset.

While Frampton will have his share of loud and enthusiastic fans in Las Vegas, the pro-Frampton crowd support for this fight - which I believe played at least a small role in how the fight was scored by a couple of the judges - won't be near what it was in New York City for the first fight.  And in tonight's fight, I see Santa Cruz being more focused and energized than in the last fight given that his father - who was undergoing cancer treatment during preparations for the last fight - is healthy again and has resumed full lead trainer duties for this fight.

While I think Frampton probably wins this fight - given the conditions of the near-west coast location (which should favor Santa Cruz), a likely more prepared and energized Santa Cruz, and Santa Cruz's ability to outwork and outpunch his opponent even when getting outboxed, Santa Cruz by decision at 2.8-1 odds appears to be the best bet in terms of value.

Either way let's hope this fight is at least half as entertaining as the last one!

Prediction: Frampton to win

Recommended bet: Santa Cruz by 12 round decision (1 unit)

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Pedraza vs. Davis: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Jose Pedraza (22-0, 12 KOs) vs. Gervonta Davis (16-0, 15 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: January 14, 2017
Weight class: Super Featherweight (130 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF Super Featherweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Pedraza -115, Davis -105 (5 Dimes, 1/14/17)
Purse: Pedraza: $225,000, Davis: $75,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pedraza: #6-ranked super featherweight; Davis: Not ranked
Style: Pedraza: Orthodox, Davis: Southpaw
Referee: Ricky Gonzalez

Why you should watch this fight

Gervonta Davis is one of the most hyped prospects in boxing - and the most hyped prospect Floyd Mayweather has ever promoted. Davis is an electric, crowd-pleasing fighter who many say resembles a smaller version of Mike Tyson with his combination of blazing hand speed and vicious KO power in both hands. (Davis has won all 16 of the fights in his professional career by TKO/KO with the exception of one fight where the opponent barely got through the full 6 rounds after being knocked down twice.)

But the undefeated Davis has been relatively untested in his career thus far and is taking a *huge* step up in levels to fight a more experienced, also undefeated world champion in the prime of his career in Jose Pedraza. The intrigue in this fight will be to see whether Davis's skills and talent match his hype and if he can overcome his relative lack of experience to become - at only 22 years old - the first world champion from Baltimore since Hasim Rahman in 2001 (who became world champion after a stunning 5th round KO upset victory as a 20-1 underdog over Lennox Lewis).

Why Jose Pedraza will win

At 22-0, Jose Pedraza is undefeated and the current IBF super featherweight champion. At 27 years old, Pedraza is also in the prime of his career making his third title defense vs. an inexperienced 22-year old kid who has never fought in a title fight before. Pedraza doesn’t have Gervonta’s speed or power but he is the decidedly more skilled and experienced fighter in this matchup. Pedraza has fought (and beaten) tough, top 20 competition within the super featherweight division like Stephen Smith and Edner Cherry in his two most recent fights, as well as a now highly thought of contender in Tevin Farmer who – like Gervonta – was an inexperienced prospect at the time he fought Pedraza. (Pedraza beat Farmer by late round TKO.) By comparison, Gervonta has yet to even fight a top 100 fighter within his division. Davis’s toughest opponent was arguably Cristobal Cruz, a 39-year old fighter who won the IBF featherweight title in 2008 but has lost 9 of his last 12 fights since 2010. (Davis beat Cruz by 3^rd round TKO in October 2015.)

A native Puerto Rican, Pedraza represented Puerto Rico in the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing and has much more international experience than Davis - which suggests he’s been exposed to and can adjust accordingly to a larger variety of boxing styles.

Pedraza isn’t an undefeated world champion for no reason. He has very quick hands and is a crafty puncher who attacks both the body and head very well with punches often thrown from unorthodox angles. Pedraza moves his feet well and has a 1.5” reach advantage vs. Davis, which he will likely use to try and keep Davis out of punching range. Pedraza is a versatile fighter who – like James DeGale in tonight’s main event – is virtually ambidextrous and can fight from either a southpaw or orthodox stance.

A big concern with Gervonta may be his focus and how much the fame, money, and attention he’s garnered in the process of quickly becoming Floyd’s most hyped prospect to date in his promotional career has gotten to his head. A little over a year after signing with Floyd, Davis – who has yet to accomplish anything of note in his professional career - already has his own website, official fan club, and frequently flaunts his cash and jewelry on social media. There has also been some reported friction between Davis and Mayweather centered around Davis’s reluctance (despite Floyd’s insistence) to move to Las Vegas and train there full time.  Davis on multiple occasions has expressed frustration with Mayweather on social media as the friction between the two apparently led to Mayweather holding Davis inactive in what currently has been the longest layoff of Davis’s professional career (7 months). 

Another point about Davis is that – unlike Floyd and the vast majority of top-level boxers in the sport – Davis (by his own admission on Twitter last year) “doesn’t watch boxing.” Davis is obviously very talented, but you have to question how far a fighter can make it at the world-class level without being a student of the game.

Pedraza is without question the best fighter Davis has fought in his career; he has the skills, experience, and savvy to decisively outbox Davis in every round, if not stop him late. Davis expends a lot of energy in early rounds trying to score knockdowns; in his professional career he’s never gone past 9 rounds. Davis is primarily a head hunter who doesn’t look to wear his opponents down with body shots (and Pedraza is likely fully aware of this). If Pedraza can get past the early rounds you have to (perhaps strongly) favor Pedraza’s versatile and more proven boxing skills.  

Why Gervonta Davis will win

A little over a year now since first signing with Mayweather Promotions, it didn’t take long for Davis to become Mayweather’s most hyped and featured young prospect. 22-year old Gervonta Davis is undefeated (16-0), having beaten all of his opponents with the exception of one by TKO or KO. (As noted earlier that one opponent who lasted did get knocked down twice by Davis in a 6 round fight.) Davis is a highly aggressive, fast-attacking fighter with a somewhat rare combination of impressive power in both hands and very good hand speed (as noted above there is a resemblance to a young Mike Tyson in this regard). Gervonta’s best punch is probably his left uppercut – the punch he’s had by far the most success scoring knockdowns with. Good practice or not, Gervonta generally doesn’t waste a lot of time employing a jab or setting his opponent up with feeler shots; most of Gervonta’s punches are heavy-handed power punches capable of sending his opponent to the canvas. While Gervonta likes to attack fast he has also shown on numerous occasions a patient aggressiveness, willing to wait for spots that minimize his exposure to counters (which is a promising quality for any young prospect whose  game is based largely on aggressiveness and punching power).

Davis has clear advantages in raw athleticism, speed, and power in this matchup – advantages which could overwhelm even someone of Pedraza’s skill and experience. Pedraza is prone to dropping his hands during exchanges and has never in his professional career faced an opponent with Gervonta’s power; don’t be too surprised if this matchup ends up being quick and easy work for the young challenger.

Davis is an ambitious, highly determined fighter seeking to become the first world champion in boxing from Baltimore since 2001 (Hasim Rahman). NYC has a strong (and loud) Puerto Rican fan base who will show up to support Pedraza (who is from Puerto Rico and is the only current world champion from the island) but Davis should hold his own in terms of crowd support with the droves of fans, friends, and family from nearby Baltimore expected to come up to NYC to support the hometown star’s attempt to bring a world title back to the city.

Davis lacks experience against top competition in his professional career but does have a solid amateur pedigree. Davis was the 2012 National Golden Gloves champion at 132 lb., won three consecutive National Silver Gloves championships from 2006-2008, and has won a few other notable national titles in his amateur career.

Gervonta opened as a 3-2 betting underdog to win this fight but the betting line has moved so much in his favor within recent weeks that he is now nearly even money odds (as low as -105 at some books) to win the fight, reflecting the fact that the vast majority of the betting public’s money has been placed on Davis to win. Honestly, it’s not often that you see a betting line move that much in favor of a boxer this close to the fight date and that boxer doesn’t end up winning the fight.

Davis is the more athletic, speedier boxer with knockout power behind seemingly every punch while Pedraza – though a very solid boxer who’s undefeated and considered one of the best in the world at super featherweight – is far from an elite technician and is considered vulnerable in this matchup even by many of those picking him to win. Over the course of 12 rounds, Davis could potentially only need to land one really good punch to change the course of the fight and get the stoppage; it may just be a matter of whether Davis can catch up to Pedraza within 12 rounds – the disparity in athleticism and speed between the two fighters suggests that Davis probably could.

Prefight Analysis

Gervonta Davis is a very talented fighter with impressive speed and power and is capable of stopping Pedraza at any point during this title fight. But I think the disparity in skill and experience (in particular the experience gap) between Pedraza and Davis far outweighs the athletic and physical advantages Davis has over Pedraza and will result in a clear victory for the champion Pedraza.

As a Baltimore native I am rooting for Gervonta but strongly feel he might be in over his head taking a title fight this early in his career against a legitimate top 5 super featherweight in the world given that he's yet to even face a top 100 fighter in his division and had not yet in his career been put up against a fighter who was thought to be any kind of threat to his perfect record going into the fight. Given Gervonta's lack of experience I think it's borderline irresponsible for Mayweather (and Gervonta's manager Al Haymon) to put him against this level of competition at this point in his career; even amongst the most talented of prospects its extremely rare to increase the level of opposition for a prospect this significantly without gradually building up the prospect first.

After only eight professional fights, fellow super featherweight Vasyl Lomachenko is already considered by some to be the best fighter pound-for-pound in the sport and is well on his way to a hall-of-fame career. But even Lomachenko lost the 2nd fight of his career - a world title fight vs. veteran Orlando Salido - due in large part to lack of experience and being put in tough too early in his career; I see the same happening to Davis in tonight's fight.

While not as quick or athletic as Davis, Pedraza has good quickness and athleticism in his own right and is skilled enough to outbox Davis from range and outpoint him decisively, if not stop him outright if the disparity in skill is greater than expected. I strongly favor Pedraza's skill and experience in this fight and think Davis's only chance will be to overwhelm the at times defensively irresponsible Pedraza early with power and catch him with a good power punch to earn the stoppage.
With this said, Davis's power is very real and he's capable of stopping Pedraza at any point during the fight; if the odds for Gervonta by stoppage are good enough I'd strongly consider hedging a bet of Pedraza to win with a wager on Gervonta to win by TKO/KO. (I personally have not made this hedge as I don't feel the odds are sufficient enough.)

Prediction: Pedraza to win

Recommended bet: 1) Pedraza to win (1.5 units)

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DeGale vs. Jack: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: James DeGale (23-1, 14 KOs) vs. Badou Jack (20-1-2, 12 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: January 14, 2017
Weight class: Super Middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC and  IBF Super Middleweight titles
TV: Showtime
Line: DeGale -242, Jack +247 (5 Dimes, 1/12/17)
Purse: DeGale: $750,000, Jack: $700,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: DeGale: #1-ranked super middleweight; Jack: #2-ranked super middleweight
Style: DeGale: Southpaw, Jack: Orthodox
Referee: Arthur Mercante Jr.

Why you should watch this fight

This is a unification title fight between two current world champions in James DeGale and Badou Jack whom most would consider, at this moment, the top two super middleweight boxers in the world. The winner of this fight will be the unified WBC and IBF super middleweight champion and be considered the top boxer in the world at 168 lbs. 

DeGale vs. Jack is the first major boxing card of 2017 and - outside of Floyd Mayweather's own fights - is the most high profile card Mayweather Promotions has ever done the lead promotion on.

Whoever wins this fight will have earned the biggest win of his professional career. If the favored DeGale - a British former Olympic gold medalist - wins this fight, it will strengthen his claim as one of the elite, top 10 pound-for-pound boxers in the sport that many consider him to be.

Why James DeGale will win

DeGale is the current IBF super middleweight champion of the world and is widely considered to be one of the top 10-15 pound-for-pound boxers in the sport.

DeGale had a distinguished amateur boxing career, winning the Olympic gold medal as a middleweight at the 2008 Beijing Olympics for the United Kingdom. As a pro, he's suffered only one loss - a highly controversial majority decision loss to the then undefeated George Groves. (A slight majority to this day feel DeGale won that fight.)

DeGale is a solid (-242) favorite coming into this fight for numerous reasons. Although not a name known to most casual boxing fans, DeGale is widely considered by boxing purists to be one of the more skilled boxers in the sport given his high boxing IQ and versatile fighting style. DeGale's ability to throw punches from unorthodox angles combined with very good hand speed and accuracy makes it very difficult for opponents to anticipate and cleanly block his punches. DeGale's almost ambidextrous ability to switch between southpaw and orthodox stances - even whilst in the middle of throwing combinations - makes it doubly difficult for opponents to prepare for and defend against his attack.

DeGale is also considered by many to be one of the best  (some might even say the best) inside fighters  in the sport with his instinctive ability to both land and defend against punches inside. DeGale, who has a career KO percentage of 58%, is not known as a big puncher but is adept at wearing his opponents down over several rounds with clean, tough-to-anticipate power punches.

I would anticipate DeGale having success landing vs. the slower, somewhat predictable Jack - a come-forward, pressure fighter who will be right in front of DeGale for most of the fight. Like Terence Crawford, DeGale has the ability to fight from either stance and (as many elite fighters are) is adept at adjusting to his opponent's tendencies over the course of a fight. DeGale can fight coming forward but, with his excellent footwork, is as good or better as a counter puncher fighting off his back foot - a style he will likely have to employ for large stretches of the fight vs. the pressure style of Jack. On his best nights DeGale is a master technician and is more mobile, quicker, and has a more varied set of skills than Jack; if he is on his game one would expect DeGale to outbox Jack both from distance and from the inside.

Although he has seemingly chosen to stand in and exchange more in recent fights, DeGale can be very elusive defensively with his movement and has never been knocked down (or even been in danger of being knocked down for that matter) or stopped as a pro. Jack is aggressive and a highly effective body puncher, but doesn't appear to have the knockout power or speed to pose as a serious knockout threat for DeGale.

DeGale is from the United Kingdom (London) but has not fought in the UK in over two years. (Saturday's fight vs. Jack will be DeGale's fourth consecutive fight outside the UK.) DeGale won, then defended his super middleweight title twice outside of the UK - establishing a reputation as a road warrior who thrives fighting away from home. DeGale didn't look particularly impressive in his last fight, a highly competitive unanimous decision victory vs. an opponent in Rogelio Medina who wasn't expected to be a serious threat - but it seemed DeGale overlooked Medina in anticipation of the already informally-agreed to fight vs. Jack (DeGale admitted as much in post-fight interviews). I would expect DeGale to be much more prepared, train harder, and look significantly sharper for what would be the biggest win of his professional career.

 DeGale has a somewhat flashy, crowd-pleasing fight style that's a bit easier to score points for than the boringly basic, predictable style of Jack. (While unfair, Jack's inability to make an impression on the judges with his effective, yet basic boxing is probably at least part of the reason his last fight with Lucian Bute was scored a draw despite most feeling he won the fight decisively.) In the event of a close fight, I wouldn't be surprised if DeGale's flashier style and more engaging ring presence carries more favor with the judges in terms of scoring the closer rounds.

If DeGale is on his game and fully prepared for this fight it's tough to envision any outcome other than a clear victory for the British boxer, whether by a comfortable decision or by stoppage. DeGale is elite in terms of his talent and overall skills, and is the quicker, faster, seemingly more intelligent boxer; one would expect these advantages to manifest themselves into a likely win for DeGale during Saturday's fight.

Why Badou Jack will win

Like DeGale, Jack is a current (WBC) super middleweight champion who has defended his title twice over the past year. Also like DeGale, Jack has just one loss on his record - a first round TKO loss nearly three years ago to journeyman Derek Edwards - though this loss appears to have been somewhat of a fluke (i.e., the result of a lucky punch landed by Edwards) given Jack's strong performances since then.

Jack seems to be fighting with a high level of confidence in what have been the best performances of his career in some of his recent fights. As a 4-1 underdog in April 2015, Jack won the WBC super middleweight championship with a solid majority decision victory over the then undefeated Anthony Dirrell. A few months later he put up another surprisingly impressive performance as a 3-2 underdog in a split decision victory vs. George Groves, a talented fighter who handed DeGale his only loss as a professional. And in Jack's most recent fight last April, he outboxed former longtime super middleweight champion Lucian Bute in a fight that was very controversially scored a majority draw. (The overwhelming majority of those who watched this fight felt Jack clearly won; it's also worth noting Bute tested positive for a banned substance shortly after the fight.) Jack has proven himself to be a hardworking overachiever in these recent fights; it would not at all be surprising if he outperforms expectations again on Saturday night - especially against an at-times lazy fighter in DeGale who is notorious for taking stretches of fights off (possibly due to issues with stamina).

Jack is a solid, well-rounded (think "jack of all trades, master of none") pressure fighter with decent power and above average mobility. He pops a good jab and counters well with hooks - which could be effective vs. DeGale in spots as DeGale has (perhaps by choice) not been as elusive in recent fights as he had earlier in his career, seemingly choosing at times to trade punches with his opponents from close range and against the ropes. DeGale also has a bad habit of keeping his hands down which may provide Jack with more opportunity for clean counters.

Jack's best asset may be his body punching, which was particularly effective in his two most recent fights vs. Bute and Groves. A durable fighter, Jack is certainly capable of wearing DeGale down with body punches in the middle to late rounds, where DeGale is more prone to getting outworked given his tendency to decrease his punch output during stretches of the latter stages of fights. One should not be surprised if the typically pressuring Jack outworks DeGale late in the championship rounds of this fight.

DeGale's performances in his last two fights since winning the IBF super middleweight title can best be described as mediocre; if DeGale is as lackluster in Saturday's fight vs. Jack as he was vs. Medina and Bute, I'd grade this matchup as at worst a 50/50 fight in favor of the underdog Jack.

While his connection to Mayweather didn't help him in his controversial draw this past April with Bute, Jack is the more "politically connected" fighter in this matchup as he is being promoted by Floyd's Mayweather Promotions firm in what is the most high profile card Mayweather Promotions has served as lead promoter for (other than Floyd Mayweather's own fights of course). This unification title fight is the biggest non-Mayweather fight Floyd has ever promoted and Jack is arguably the best fighter in Mayweather's camp; it would not be unreasonable to think that a close fight *could* get judged with bias in favor of Mayweather's fighter over the fighter from the United Kingdom.

DeGale is widely considered an elite, A-level talent but he's been inconsistent in recent fights and has a habit of fighting down to the level of his opponent. Jack is probably not quite as talented or skilled as DeGale but he is a world-class, top 2 super middleweight fighter in his own right and has arguably performed better than DeGale in recent fights, showing better stamina and putting forth a more consistent effort vs. comparable competition to what DeGale has faced in recent years. If DeGale does not improve from how he's performed over the past couple of fights, one should expect this to be a close, competitive fight in which Jack could very easily pull off the upset.

Prefight Analysis

It wouldn't be completely surprising if Jack wins this fight. He's a well-rounded, top-level fighter who's boxed well in recent fights. Since his career-hindering TKO loss to Edwards nearly three years ago he's bounced back  with impressive performances as an underdog to win a major world title and earn consideration as possibly the best super middleweight in the world. DeGale on the other hand, has looked shaky at times in his recent fights with Medina and Bute and appears more likely than Jack to perform below expectations.

The fact is Jack is an underrated, hardworking fighter who absolutely is capable of outworking and wearing down DeGale, who has a reputation for getting lazy during the middle and late rounds of fights. Jack is a very effective body puncher and DeGale - as he's done in recent fights - may elect to  stand within punching range and exchange with Jack, which could be to his detriment as the fight gets into the later rounds. At nearly 3.5-1 odds, there may be some value in taking Jack to win by 12 round decision.

But as solid as Jack is I do feel at the end of the day that DeGale - when on his game - is a level above Jack in terms of talent and overall skill and that this disparity will end up being the difference in the fight. DeGale's ability to switch stances and give different looks combined with his unorthodox punching style, hand speed advantage, and ability to box on the move will result in DeGale having consistent success landing clean power punches compared to Jack's straightforward, somewhat predictable approach which DeGale will likely have an easier time defending against.

I do feel DeGale has competed down to the level of his opponents in some of his recent fights but will rise to the occasion to perform well in a unification title fight that would be the biggest win of his career.

In terms of what the fight judges will see on the surface, DeGale has a flashier, more crowd-pleasing style and is much more adept at playing to the crowd than the mild-mannered, no frills Jack. (In a fight with a clash of styles such as these this could end up being a deciding factor.)

DeGale is one of the top pound-for-pound boxers in the sport and is a hall-of-fame caliber talent; I expect his special talent to be on full display Saturday night at Barclays Center en route to a competitive but clear decision, if not a late stoppage.

Prediction: DeGale to win

Recommended bet: 1) DeGale to win (1 unit)

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Ward vs. Kovalev: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Andre Ward (30-0, 15 KOs) vs. Sergey Kovalev (30-0-1, 26 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 19, 2016
Weight class: Light Heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA, IBF, and WBO Light Heavyweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Ward -165, Kovalev +155 (5 Dimes, 11/19/16)
Purse: Ward: $5 million, Kovalev: $2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Ward: #4 ranked pound-for-pound, #4 ranked light heavyweight; Kovalev: #2 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked light heavyweight
Style: Ward: Orthodox, Kovalev: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Why you should watch this fight

Neither fighter is very well known to sports fans who don't follow boxing closely, but to hardcore boxing fans this is without question the most anticipated fight of the year. This is only the third time in boxing history that two undefeated, Ring Magazine top five pound-for-pound boxers will face each other (other two times were Oscar De La Hoya vs. Felix Trinidad in 1999 and Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. vs. Meldrick Taylor in 1990). We have an Olympic gold medal-winning, master-class technician who hasn't lost a professional or amateur fight since he was 12 years old in Andre Ward moving up in weight to fight Sergey Kovalev, who along with Gennady "GGG" Golovkin is one of the two most feared power punchers in boxing with (very) underrated technical boxing skills and a cold-blooded killer instinct (after all, he has literally killed a man in the ring) to match potentially all-time great power.   

This is a classic matchup between a pure boxer in Ward - who many would say is one of the best boxers of this generation and could go down as one of the best boxers of all-time - vs. arguably the best power puncher in boxing in Kovalev. It is highly likely that the winner of this fight  between two future likely hall-of-famers will be widely considered the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport going forward.

Why Andre Ward will win

Although he's been relatively inactive over the past half decade (having fought an average of roughly once a year over this time period), Ward is still widely considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport (if not the best). He's an undefeated, master technician who hasn't lost a fight in his professional or amateur career since he was 12 years old. Ward went through an extended stretch in his career where the quality of his opposition was as tough as any other boxer (most notably Showtime's Super Six World Boxing Classic tournament where he faced the likes of former world champions Carl Froch, Mikkel Kessler, and Arthur Abraham in their primes) and still won all of those fights with ease by wide margins. If Ward retired today, he would go down as one of the great super middleweight boxers of all time.

Ward is a technically brilliant, extremely versatile boxer who fights superbly both inside and from distance. Especially on the inside, many would consider Ward the best in the sport; he is adept at using his unmatched combination of athleticism, strength, and ring intelligence to smother and wear opponents down from close distance. This may serve him very well vs. Kovalev, who has shown susceptibility to getting hit to the body from inside and has a tendency to drop his guard when getting hit in that area.

Ward is a highly accurate lead puncher and counterpuncher who also fights very well from range; Ward is adept at throwing well-timed jabs (particularly from his dominant left hand) and is effective from fighting from either an orthodox or southpaw stance.

Whether fighting from range or inside, Ward has excellent footwork which he's used along with his physical strength and superior skills to dominate the pace of every fight he's ever fought in as a pro. Even Jean Pascal and Isaac Chilemba had success in spots landing vs. a defensively mediocre Kovalev (who's head movement at times is nonexistent) so Ward - who has a clear speed advantage in this matchup -  should be able to consistently land cleanly and outbox Kovalev if he can withstand or otherwise mitigate Kovalev's punching power.

Ward is an instinctual, very high IQ fighter who appears to be on the level of a Floyd Mayweather or Bernard Hopkins in terms of ability to read and adjust to his opponent's boxing style. Kovalev is an underrated technician who a couple of years ago gave (a 49 year-old but still very crafty) Hopkins by far the worst defeat of his career but Ward is the more intelligent and savvy boxer in this matchup.

Ward is also an elusive, defensively gifted fighter - even on the inside where he has an uncanny ability to dodge and counter power punches from close range. If Ward can keep this fight on the inside (where Kovalev is somewhat unproven and will have less success getting adding leverage to his punches), one would have to strongly favor Ward over the course of 12 rounds.

Although Ward has been relatively inactive in recent years and suffered through multiple injuries (including a debilitating, career-threatening right shoulder injury), at 32 years old Ward is arguably still in his prime and is actually the younger fighter in the matchup vs. a 33 year-old Kovalev.

Ward is moving up in weight to fight one of the most feared power punchers in the sport but he does have a very respectable chin, having been knocked down only once in his professional career (vs. Darnell Boone in the 7th fight of his career when he was only 21 years old). 

Minus the ultra-quick reflexes, Ward is arguably Mayweather-level in terms of boxing skill, ring IQ, and athleticism; *if* he can withstand Kovalev's power (which is obviously a major if), it's extremely difficult to not envision him outboxing Kovalev - who looked unimpressive in his most recent fight vs. Chilemba - over 12 rounds.

Why Sergey Kovalev will win

Like Ward, Kovalev is also undefeated and is the unified WBA, IBF, and IBO light heavyweight champion of the world. Kovalev is widely considered - along with fellow Soviet Gennady Golovkin - one of the top two power punchers in boxing today. Kovalev is a devastating puncher with outstanding power in both hands (complimented with excellent balance allowing him to get full leverage on many of his punches) to the extent where he doesn't necessarily have to land cleanly for opponents to feel his power. Of Kovalev's 30 wins, 26 (86.7%) have come by TKO/KO. Kovalev is on course to go down as one of the better power punchers in the history of the sport; as skilled as Ward is (and he is considered by many the most skilled fighter in boxing today) just one clean power punch landed by Kovalev could easily change the course of the fight.

Although primarily known as a power puncher, Kovalev is an very underrated technician who has proven time and again he has the world class boxing skills to match his punching power. Kovalev is a stalking, yet patient fighter who doesn't waste punches. He is a very efficient, highly accurate puncher who throws both jabs and combinations well and has an excellent straight right hand. When punching, Kovalev uses angles well and is effective at throwing leaping lead hooks from distance, which makes him somewhat unpredictable in his offensive attack. Kovalev is also a brutal body puncher, one of the best in the sport; even a defensively gifted Ward may have trouble stopping some of those body punches from landing when fighting inside.

Ward is considered a master technician but Kovalev has already faced and thoroughly outboxed another master technician in Bernard Hopkins - knocking Hopkins down once (in the 1st round of their fight) and winning all 12 rounds on all three judges scorecards after Hopkins went into survival mode after the knockdown. Kovalev does not have quite the experience nor has he faced the quality of opposition Ward has but - in addition to Hopkins - in recent years he's faced top-level opposition in former world champions Jean Pascal (twice), Nathan Cleverly, Gabriel Campillo, and Chilemba; with the exception of Chilemba all were soundly defeated by TKO/KO.

A key advantage Kovalev has is that this fight is taking place in the light heavyweight (175 lbs) division, a division where Kovalev has fought nearly his entire career and been champion for over three years. Ward was big and physically strong for a super middleweight (168 lbs) but he's moving up to fight at 175 pounds for only the third time in his career - the previous two being somewhat unimpressive unanimous decision victories vs. journeymen Alexander Brand and Sullivan Barrera - to face a fighter in Kovalev who has been dominant at that weight class for several years. There are *huge* question marks as to how well Ward's noted physical, clinching tactics inside will fare vs. a bigger opponent at a higher weight class and how well his respectable (though certainly not as devastating as Kovalev's) power carries up to light heavyweight.

Although slightly younger than Kovalev, Ward has been relatively inactive in recent years (due to multiple injuries and legal battles) and has looked somewhat rusty in recent fights; at 32 years old it may very easily be the case that Ward may not be the same quality of fighter at this point in his career as he was a few years ago when he was considered the #2 boxer pound-for-pound behind only Floyd Mayweather. In one of Ward's most recent fights, Barrera did have some success landing power punches with his right hand. And while Ward is known to be outstanding defensively, he is susceptible at times to getting hit given his proclivity for fighting from close distance. If Ward truly has lost a step and looks as rusty as he has in recent fights at 175, one would have to think Kovalev's power has a good chance of getting the stoppage within a 12 round fight where Ward will likely put himself within punching distance for large stretches.

Kovalev is not only (by far) the best puncher Ward has faced in his career - a career in which Ward has been knocked down and in trouble before against a lesser puncher in a lower weight class - he is also the most skilled boxer Ward has ever faced. Many have claimed Kovalev can not outbox Ward over 12 rounds - which may be true from a purely technical standpoint - but with Kovalev's combination of overwhelming power and underrated technical skill, it would not be surprising to see him win this fight by stoppage or by clear decision.

Prefight Analysis

So this fight is as difficult as any fight I've tried to predict on multiple levels. One one level it's difficult to say which style will prevail tonight - the technically superior, more experienced, master class in Ward with the clear hand and foot speed advantage who hasn't even come close to losing a fight since he was a preteen - or the elite power punching and very underrated boxing skill of a similarly undefeated Kovalev, who is the current unified champion and is defending his titles within his natural weight class. On another level it's equally difficult to predict which version of each of these boxers will show up tonight. Despite winning easily, Ward hasn't looked particularly impressive in recent bouts vs. B-level opponents, while Kovalev was also unimpressive and looked frustrated in spots during his most recent fight vs. Chilemba. The outcome of this fight will of course largely depend on which of these fighters is closer to their "A" game Saturday night.

As many boxing pundits have pointed out, this is as close to a true 50/50 as it gets with the level of skill and clash of styles involved in this matchup. I'll admit that I'm personally rooting for Ward - a highly intelligent boxer with strong moral character who has always carried himself with class - to win this fight.  If this was prime, vintage Andre Ward and/or we were dealing with a weight-drained Kovalev fighting Ward at Ward's usual 168-lb weight (a la a weight-drained Chad Dawson in his 2012 fight with Ward), I'd (perhaps strongly) favor Ward's technical superiority, speed, and inside fighting ability over Kovalev's overwhelming power.

But there are three key reasons why I - despite personally rooting for Ward - very slightly favor Kovalev in this matchup:

1) This fight is taking place at light heavyweight (175 lbs), not at super middleweight (168 lbs). This fight is at Kovalev's natural weight class - a weight class Ward moved up to just this year and has looked less than impressive in vs. forgettable opposition. This is only Ward's 3rd fight at 175 lbs, a weight class Kovalev has dominated for several years. I have doubts as to whether Ward will be able to impose his physical will - which he does so easily at 168 lbs - inside vs. a stronger, deadly power puncher like Kovalev at 175. I think Ward will find that he's in for a different fight vs. an elite 175-pound fighter than he's used to vs. elite 168-pound fighters. At 175 lbs, there is a question of how he will be able to handle the power of a true light heavyweight power puncher (who happens to be one of the top two power punchers in boxing) and how well Ward's own power at 168 lbs carries up to 175 lbs. The extra weight may also slow Ward down a bit, making him less fleet of foot. Ward is a big super middleweight who may have been outgrowing the 168 lb weight class anyway but the fact that this fight is taking place at 175 lbs is a clear advantage for Kovalev.

2) Ward is more likely than Kovalev to be off his game. Neither fighter has looked especially impressive in recent fights so it's tough to predict which version of each fighter will show up tonight. But I think Kovalev is a bit more likely to bring his top-level game than Ward. Although Ward is actually slightly younger than Kovalev, Ward has been relatively inactive (having fought only four times in the past four years), endured multiple surgeries (some to alleviate potentially career-threatening injuries), and - judging by his recent fights this year - seems to have lost a step from the pound-for-pound #2 Ward that dominated the Super Six World Boxing Classic tournament a few years ago. It's possible that this is simply Ward shaking off rust from inactivity, but it's also possible that this 32-year old version of Ward - after all the injuries and multiple extended layoffs - just isn't quite the fighter he used to be in his mid-twenties. If Ward is no longer the same A+-level performer we've come to expect from the Super Six World Boxing Classic fights and from his fight with Chad Dawson, then Kovalev certainly has a much greater chance of pulling off an upset at a weight class Ward still appears to be getting accustomed to.

3) Ward will likely stay within range of Kovalev's power for significant stretches of the fight. Ward has a very respectable chin (having been knocked down only once in his professional career) but Kovalev is by far the most effective power puncher he's faced in his career with significantly more power than he's used to facing at 168 lbs. Ward likes to fight from close range inside - which often works to smother an opponent's punches and mitigate power  - but the close range will nevertheless give Kovalev ample opportunity to setup his (usually lethal) offensive attack to the body and head. All it would take is one clean punch from Kovalev over the course of 12 rounds to change the fight; if Ward stays within punching range as expected I believe Kovalev will be effective enough to land multiple shots and at times overwhelm Ward with his power.

Even at this stage of his career Ward is such a gifted, crafty fighter that it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he ended up heavily frustrating Kovalev with elusiveness and skill and won every round of the fight. Ward is, in my opinion, a historically great talent who certainly has the ability to outbox Kovalev. But I believe this version of Ward isn't quite the same Ward we remember from a few years ago and that Kovalev - who possesses high-level technical skills in his own right (skills that are being overlooked and underrated by many) - will catch and overwhelm Ward with his power at this weight class.

The question if Kovalev wins this fight is whether he wins by his customary stoppage or by decision. Kovalev's most recent fight vs. Chilemba -  a fighter in many ways similar in style to Ward - went the full 12 rounds. Kovalev's fight a couple of years ago vs. master boxing technician Hopkins also ended in a 12-round decision. Ward is certainly crafty and elusive enough to last 12 rounds (as Chilemba and Hopkins did) if he chooses; but - unlike Chilemba or Hopkins - I don't see Ward retreating and fighting off his back foot in this matchup. Ward has much more of a proclivity than those two fighters to attack inside and I think he will stick with that tactic - even at the risk of getting knocked out. (Kovalev's power is also greater from distance which I think will further encourage Ward to get past Kovalev's stiff jab and stay inside for stretches in an attempt to somewhat mitigate his power.) But I think Ward's close range tactics will provide ample opportunities for Kovalev to pepper Ward with power punches and get the stoppage.

At almost 2.5-1 odds, I think Kovalev by TKO/KO (+249) is the best bet for this fight. But given the unpredictability of this clash of styles and given Ward's technical superiority and still elite skills, I would hedge this bet with an equal amount of money on Ward by 12 round decision - which can still be found at approximately even money (+100) odds. Certainly looking forward to this fight!!!  

Prediction: Kovalev to win

Recommended bets: 1) Kovalev by TKO/KO (1 unit)
2) Ward by 12 round decision (1 unit)

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Pacquiao vs. Vargas: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Manny Pacquiao (58-6-2, 38 KOs) vs. Jessie Vargas (27-1, 10 KOs)
Location: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 5, 2016
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: Top Rank PPV
Line: Pacquiao -570, Vargas +480 (5 Dimes, 11/5/16)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao: not ranked (due to brief retirement), Vargas: #8 ranked welterweight
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Vargas: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

To see if the recently unretired and current Philippine Senator Manny Pacquiao can reclaim his previously perennial status atop the welterweight division (and as one of the elite boxers pound-for-pound) by beating current WBO welterweight champion Jessie Vargas... or if the younger, technically skilled, and highly confident Vargas can pull off the defining win of his career by defeating one of the great boxers in the history of the sport in his adopted hometown of Las Vegas (where he has lived and trained since he was a child).

Pacquiao is not quite the electrifying fighter he was in his prime but - based on his impressive unanimous decision victory last April vs. Timothy Bradley - he still has elite speed and very good power, which should provide for an entertaining matchup with the scrappy, former two-time Mexican national champion Vargas, who likes to fight inside and will likely be willing to trade power punches with Pacquiao.

Pacquiao spent over 600 weeks (over 12 years) in the Ring Magazine pound-for-pound top 10 rankings before dropping off earlier this year due to a brief retirement; a convincing win vs. Vargas will likely return him to top pound-for-pound status.

This fight will be shown on PPV, though will be televised by Top Rank PPV instead of HBO, who had been under contract to televise Pacquiao's fights. HBO declined to televise this fight due in part to lack of interest in the matchup with Vargas and to avoid clustering the HBO boxing schedule (Andre Ward/Sergey Kovalev PPV on November 19th and the now-canceled Fury/Klitschko matchup that had been scheduled for October 29th.)

Loquacious ESPN personality Stephen A. Smith will make debut as a boxing color analyst for this fight, commentating alongside Brian Kenny, who will serve as the blow-by-blow announcer. Tim Bradley, who fought Pacquiao in his last fight this past April and who fought Vargas back in 2015, will also serve as an analyst for the fight.

Why Manny Pacquiao will win

Pacquiao is universally considered one of the best boxers in the history of the sport and, alongside Floyd Mayweather Jr., is one of the top two boxers of this generation. Judging by his performance this past April vs. Bradley - a possible future hall-of-famer who was coming off of an impressive TKO victory of granite-chinned Brandon Rios - Pacquiao is likely still one of the elite fighters in the sport. The freakish, next-level athleticism and talent that made Pacquiao a global icon is for the most part still there.

Although more than 10 years older, Pacquiao still has clear and significant hand speed and power advantages over Vargas, who has shown some solid power in his last couple of fights but only has 10 KOs in 28 career fights (36%). Pacquiao is an ambush-style fighter who is adept at moving in on his opponents and using his excellent hand speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter. Although not quite as fast or as strong as he was in his prime, it would be shocking if Pacquiao doesn't consistently beat the much slower Vargas to the punch with his speed and evade Vargas's pocket attack with his head movement and footwork, both of which are still amongst the best in boxing.

The 5'10" Vargas possesses a 4.5" height advantage and 4" reach advantage over Pacquiao, but Manny has had great success in previous fights vs. taller fighters with significant reach advantage (see his fights vs. 5'11" Antonio Margarito, 5'10" Oscar De La Hoya, and 5'10" Chris Algieri who were all dominated by Pacquiao despite their height and a 5" reach advantage). Vargas is a solid, technically skilled fighter but his attack will likely be somewhat stymied vs. Pacquiao (as it was vs. 5'6" Tim Bradley) as he will at times have to bend over and adjust the angles at which he naturally throws punches to land clean punches vs. his shorter opponent.

With clear disadvantages in speed, power, talent, athleticism, and experience, Vargas's chances lie largely on whether he can time Pacquiao and land a big right hand to set up a TKO/KO upset - as he did in his last fight in a 9th round TKO victory vs. betting favorite Sadam Ali and as he almost did late in the 12th round of his June 2015 fight vs. Bradley when he stunned Bradley with a big right hook. But Pacquiao is a highly experienced fighter who has actually fought a much more cautious and defensively responsible style since his KO loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012; Pacquiao is better than he was even in his prime at keeping his guard up and still has very good head movement so it will be tough even for a skilled, classic Mexican-style boxer like Vargas to catch him with a big shot (especially given the speed disparity).

There's also the question of how much Pacquiao has really fallen off over the past few years. While obviously not the KO king he was in his prime (though the lack of KOs can mostly be attributed to  fighting guys who are naturally bigger than him at welterweight), his performances have still generally been top-level; Pacquiao's only losses in the last 4.5 years came vs. 1) an undefeated Tim Bradley in a split decision loss that the vast majority of boxing fans, experts, and media felt Pacquiao won decisively, 2) a KO loss to Marquez that Pacquiao was winning decisively and looking to finish early before getting caught with a big punch, and 3) a unanimous decision loss to a boxer widely considered the best fighter of this generation, Floyd Mayweather - a fight where he was able to win 4 rounds on 2 out of 3 of the judges' scorecards despite (at least according to Pacquiao) having an injured right shoulder. It can easily be argued that Pacquiao's skills haven't deteriorated nearly as much as people think and that he's (at 37 years old) maybe even the best welterweight in the world right now with Mayweather retired from the sport. 

Vargas is a good boxer and the current WBO welterweight champion but thus far in his career hasn't shown anything special to suggest that he would be a threat to upset Pacquiao. The best win of Vargas's career was his most recent fight vs. unbeaten, but unproven contender Sadam Ali and he lost convincingly in his 2015 fight vs. Timothy Bradley, a fighter Pacquiao has beaten convincingly twice (arguably three times). Over the past 17 years (spanning 38 fights), Pacquiao's only losses have been competitive losses to hall-of-fame caliber opponents (Mayweather, Marquez, Erik Morales, and possibly Bradley); Vargas is very widely considered a level (or two) below these caliber of fighters.

Despite this fight taking place in Las Vegas - where Vargas has lived and trained for several years - the fan-friendly and still extremely popular Pacquiao is the main attraction for this fight and will be the overwhelming crowd favorite, which sometimes affects (in favor of the crowd favorite) the action inside the ring and the judging outside of it.

Even with the personal and political distractions in his life, Pacquiao has always been an unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big PPV fights. But for less experienced Vargas this is his first time headlining a PPV card; it's unclear how the atmosphere and pressure surrounding his first PPV fight will affect him.

Why Jessie Vargas will win

Vargas is the current WBO welterweight champion of the world and is coming off of the best win of his career, a 9th round TKO vs. betting favorite Sadam Ali, who was undefeated at the time.

Vargas is a very skilled, well-rounded, aggressive boxer with a good jab, good reach (4" reach advantage over Pacquiao), and what has recently proven to be a dangerous right hand. With only a 36% KO percentage Vargas isn't known for his power, but in his last couple of fights his big right hand led to an upset TKO victory of Ali and allowed him to stun and nearly knock down Bradley late in the 12th round of their fight in 2015. While not as reckless as he was in his prime, Pacquiao is still a highly aggressive fighter; if Vargas can time Pacquiao's attack, even one big counter right hand from Vargas could be devastating for Pacquiao. Pacquiao has proven at times to be susceptible to right hand counters (most notably Marquez's overhand right to stop Pacquiao in 2012 though Marquez had plenty of success with right hand counters in all four matchups with Pacquiao).

Vargas is the younger fighter (by over 10 years) in the middle of his prime while Pacquiao - though still arguably elite - is several years past his prime and highly prone to slippage at this point in his career,  especially given that his highly aggressive fighting style depends largely on a freakish athleticism that will inevitably deteriorate as he gets older. Pacquiao has generally fought well in recent fights but the fact remains he has lost 3 out of his last 7 fights (over 40% of his fights over the past 4.5 years). If we see further slippage from Pacquiao it would certainly open the door for the fresher, highly confident Vargas.

A classic Mexican-styled boxer, Vargas is a tough, scrappy fighter who has never been stopped and has only been knocked down once in his career (in the 3rd round of a fight he came back to win comfortably by unanimous decision). Vargas may be able to handle Pacquiao's power better than most expect; if so the newly found power in Vargas's right hand will present a huge threat to Manny's attacking, come-forward style over the course of the entire 12 rounds.

Pacquiao will be the overwhelming crowd favorite but this fight is talking place in Las Vegas, where Vargas has lived with his family and trained since he was a child; despite the potentially hostile environment at the Thomas & Mack Center, fighting in his adopted hometown should add an element of comfort for Vargas.

Prefight Analysis

Vargas is an underrated talent but I can't give him more than a puncher's chance to win this fight. It's true that Pacquiao is not the fighter he once was - not as strong, not as fast, and doesn't throw as many punches as he used to - but based on the performance we saw just seven months ago against an A-level fighter in Tim Bradley (a fighter who beat Vargas decisively), Pacquiao is still (at least) a level above Vargas in terms of speed, power, and skill.

Pacquiao will consistently beat Vargas to the punch and frustrate him with his speed, movement, and ability to land power punches cleanly from unexpected angles. Vargas was hit consistently and cleanly by Bradley in their 2015 fight (Bradley landed 49% of his power shots over the last six rounds of the fight) and he even had trouble in the early rounds of his most recent fight vs. Ali's offensive attack so he'll really be up against it facing a fighter who lands cleaner, faster, and harder than any other opponent he's faced in his career.

Vargas has a clear size and reach advantage but Pacquiao historically has looked even more impressive vs. bigger, taller, rangier fighters (see Pacquiao's fights vs. De La Hoya, Margarito, and Algieri) due at least in part to taller fighters having more difficulty being able to adjust angles to land cleanly vs. shorter, elusive opponents like Pacquiao.

Vargas is tough and durable, but is a basic and somewhat predictable 1-2 puncher who will likely be overwhelmed  by Pacquiao's speedy 3-5+ punch combinations and ability to get out of the pocket before Vargas has a chance to counter. Vargas has shown improved power in recent fights but Pacquiao in recent years has been a much more cautious, defensively responsible fighter than he was in his prime; I see Pacquiao being careful to keep his guard up (as he's done in all recent fights since the Marquez KO) and not allow Vargas to set traps and time him with a big right hand.

In my opinion, the only question in this fight is whether Pacquiao wins this fight by a wide unanimous decision or by stoppage. Pacquiao's A-level skills, speed, and power vs. a relatively inexperienced Vargas's pocket-oriented, somewhat flat-footed style makes a stoppage a very real possibility. But Vargas is a gritty, durable boxer who's never been stopped in his career in against a fighter in Pacquiao who's punch output has decreased dramatically over his past several fights and hasn't stopped anyone in nearly seven years. (Pacquiao's last stoppage came in November 2009 vs. a slightly weight drained Miguel Cotto.) While a knockout is a very realistic possibility (due to  Vargas's non-elusive, flat-footed style and discrepancy in skill, speed, and power), I like Vargas's larger, durable, younger frame to last 12 rounds vs. a more cautious-as-of-late Pacquiao who doesn't seem to have the killer instinct he had in his prime.

Pacquiao is a hyper-aggressive fighter  who is still at times defensively irresponsible; while I expect Pacquiao to win this fight easily, at odds better than 16-1, I do think it's well worth it to hedge a bet on Pacquiao with Vargas to win by stoppage given Vargas's grit and the respectable power he's shown in recent fights.

 Prediction: Pacquiao by unanimous decision
Recommended bets: 1) Pacquiao by unanimous decision (1.5 units)
2) Vargas by TKO/KO (.3 unit)

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