Alvarado vs. Rios III: prefight analysis and prediction

Follow @mouzonebrother

Fight: Mike Alvarado (34-3, 23 KOs) vs. Brandon Rios (32-2-1, 23 KOs)
Location: 1STBANK Center, Broomfield, Denver, Colorado
Date: January 20, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO International Welterweight title (currently vacant)
TV: HBO
Line: Alvarado +155, Rios -165 (5 Dimes, 1/24/15)
Purse: Alvarado: $785,000, Rios: $850,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarado: #5 ranked junior welterweight, Rios: Not ranked
Style: Alvarado: Orthodox, Rios: Orthodox
Referee: Jay Nady

Link to Alvarado/Rios I (HBO)
Link to Alvarado/Rios II (HBO)

Positives for Alvarado 
Negatives for Alvarado
Positives for Rios
Negatives for Rios
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Alvarado

• Former WBO light welterweight champion. Aggressive, high-volume boxer-puncher with very good punching power. Versatile boxer who has very solid boxing skills but is also more than willing to brawl. 
• Tough, gritty boxer who fights with a lot of heart (though fighting with his heart has sometimes been to his disadvantage). Showed heart in his most recent fight, a tough unanimous decision loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in May 2014 where he knocked Marquez down in the 9th round after being dominated the entire fight. Generally solid boxer who has beaten notable contenders such as Mauricio Herrera, Breidis Prescott, and Rios in their first rematch. Naturally athletic fighter who was a former Colorado high school state champion in wrestling.
• Alvarado is not a great technician but has better overall boxing skills than Rios. Was especially effective in both previous fights vs. Rios with his power right hand, as well as his left jab - which was used to set up power punches and combinations. Fought particularly well vs. Rios in both previous fights when fighting from the outside and more often than not beat Rios to the punch due to reach advantage and quicker hand speed.
• After losing to Rios in October 2012 (Alvarado's first career defeat), in March 2013 Alvarado won the rematch vs. Rios via unanimous decision victory on a neutral site in Las Vegas. Generally, boxers with the better technical skill tend to fare better in rematches due to better ability to adjust; Alvarado won the rematch vs. Rios in 2013 so wouldn't be surprising if Alvarado wins this rematch even more decisively with additional adjustments. Even in the first loss to Rios, Alvarado outboxed Rios early before Rios power punches started to take effect.    
• The fight is taking place in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, where the crowd will be decidedly pro-Alvarado. Has already beaten Rios on a neutral site in their last fight so is perhaps even more likely to beat Rios in Denver.
• Mobile fighter with good footwork. Alvarado's dvantage over Rios increases the more he boxes on his feet, staying out of range from Rios' power punches and utilizing his superior boxing skills and speed from the outside.
• Alvarado has excellent stamina, which may play an important role given that the fight is taking place in Denver. (In high altitude cities such as Denver, low air pressure makes it more difficult to breathe.) Alvarado's stamina generally allows him to finish strong in the later rounds of fights.
• Although he has been either knocked down or lost by TKO in three of his last four fights, does have an above average chin. Fights through getting hit with power punches reasonably well (problem is he sometimes ends up getting hit with too many power shots).

Negatives for Alvarado

•  Alvarado's defensive skills, while a bit better than Rios's due to his foot movement, are suspect. This and his inclination at times to brawl from inside (rather than use movement and boxing skills from outside) in fights has left him susceptible to knockdowns in most of his recent fights vs. top opponents. Alvarado's inability to defend himself has resulted in Alvarado getting knocked down three times in his last two fights and losing three out of his last four fights (two by TKO with his most recent loss by wide unanimous decision to Marquez). Has lost by TKO to Rios before so wouldn't be surprising to see Rios hand him another TKO loss. There will inevitably be moments in tonight's fight where he will brawl with Rios - which will likely be to Rios' advantage. 
• Is fighting at home in the Denver area but, even as a solid favorite, lost his last fight in Denver via TKO to Ruslan Provodnikov (who like Rios is limited skillwise but is a relentless power puncher who cuts off the ring well).
• Has Alvarado fully recovered from the recent TKO losses to Rios and Provodnikov? While Alvarado has shown a good chin in the past, there are questions as to how he's been affected by the brutal wars he's had with Rios and Provodnikov, as well as his most recent loss to Marquez. Boxers have a history of losing confidence and becoming gun shy after wars such as the ones he's had recently. In addition to being battle-worn, Alvarado is 34 years old (six years older than Rios) and likely past his prime.
• Alvarado has good boxing skills, but he's far from a master technician. When fighting from the inside, Rios will generally have the advantage, particularly due to his better chin and more effective power punching from inside.
• Alvarado is a convicted felon who is facing the prospect of a lengthy prison sentence after recently being charged with illegally possessing a firearm. How will the looming felony charges and prospect of a prison sentence affect him in the fight?

Positives for Rios

• Former WBA welterweight champion. Very good pressure fighter with dangerous power in both hands. Brawler who fights especially well from the inside and is very effective at cutting off the ring. Earned a 7th round TKO victory vs. Alvarado in their first fight on October 2012.
• Has one of the best chins in boxing. Consistently walks through flush power punches. Has never been stopped in his career and only been knocked down once, a 2006 fight vs. Joel Ortega (which he came back to win by 5th round KO).
• Has good counterpunching skills. Rios often takes flush power punches in order to throw even more powerful counterpunches - which is an effective style for him due to his excellent chin and deceptively quick hand speed.   
• Relentless puncher from the inside. Inside hooks and overhand rights were especially effective in both of his previous fights vs. Alvarado. Uses body attack well to wear down his opponents over the course of a fight. 
• Like Alvarado is a very tough boxer who fights with a warrior mentality and tremendous will to win. Probably a bit physically and mentally tougher than Alvarado. Will be highly motivated to win this fight as he knows his career as a top-level boxer may be over with a loss.
• Longtime trainer is Robert Garcia, widely considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  
• Has had issues in the past at lower weights cutting weight (which sometimes leaves him drained on the day of the fight). This will be much less of an issue in this fight, his second fight at welterweight (147 pounds).

Negatives for Rios

• Very stationary, flat-footed, predictable fighter. In Alvarado will be fighting a boxer with superior technical skill, boxing IQ, mobility, and hand speed (and a boxer who is familiar with his predictable tendencies from their previous fights). Will have to turn fight with Alvarado into a brawl in order to win; in a pure boxing match Alvarado wins easily with his superior skill, speed, and reach.  
• Lost two out of his last three fights, including the rematch vs. Alvarado. Only win in past two years was a DQ victory vs. Diego Chaves who was actually ahead on two out of three judge's scorecards before being disqualified due to intentional elbow to face. Rios has actually been behind on at least one judge's scorecard at the time of stoppage in four out of his last fights. 
• Though he has an excellent chin, Rios has poor defensive skills. Uses very little head movement and is more than willing to take flush punches in order to land his own power punches. This style has generally been effective for him in his career but results in easy scoring opportunities for his more skilled opponents such as Alvarado and Manny Pacquiao, who he lost to by wide unanimous decision in November 2013.  
• Is fighting in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, facing in front of a hostile, pro-Alvarado crowd after losing to Alvarado in their rematch in October 2013.
• Like Alvarado has been through some brutal wars in recent fights, most notably his two fights vs. Alvarado and his November 2013 unanimous decision loss vs. Pacquiao. Will Rios, who has shown signs of regression in recent fights, be able to return to top form vs. Alvarado?

Prefight Summary

Both Alvarado/Rios I and II were strong fight of the year candidates so I definitely expect tonight's fight to be a barnburner as well. Both fighters have slumped in recent fights and realize that another loss here may be the end of their respective careers as top-level boxers and significantly threaten future big fight opportunities.

I'm actually mildly surprised to see that Rios is listed as a solid (-165 on 5 Dimes) favorite in this fight. Vegas likely sees Alvarado as an aging boxer in his mid-30s who has had a lot taken out of him in recent fights - all of which were grueling, brutal wars. Alvarado did lose three out of those last four fights, including a TKO loss the last time he fought in Denver (vs. Provodnikov) and a TKO loss the first time he fought Rios. (Vegas also sees Alvarado as likely distracted by felony charges that could potentially leave him locked up for a few years.) Rios has also slumped in recent fights, losing two out of his last three (including his last fight vs. Alvarado), but is younger, has a much better chin, and overall is viewed as having not regressed as much as Alvarado over his past few fights. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Rios wear Alvarado down in the later rounds for the TKO/KO victory; at the end of the day Alvarado is defensively suspect and he does have a penchant for getting drawn into brawls (as opposed to using his movement and boxing skills), which is to Rios' advantage.

This fight could certainly go either way but I still favor Alvarado. Alvarado made the necessary adjustments to beat Rios in their first rematch and is still the better boxer between the two. One big difference in this fight is, for the first time in their trilogy, they will fight in Alvarado's hometown of Denver - I see that as being a boost for Alvarado's spirits and feel fighting in Denver could even slightly affect the judges' scoring (in what will likely be a close, competitive fight). Alvarado was outclassed in his last fight vs. future first ballot hall-of-famer Juan Manuel Marquez (though to his credit he fought a courageous fight which included a knockdown of Marquez in the later rounds), but learned his lesson from his first fight with Rios and TKO loss vs. Provodnikov that he is much more effective vs. brawlers using movement and his technical skill to outbox his opponents (as opposed to staying inside and trying to beat them at their own game). Rematches generally favor the more technically skilled fighter and I see this rematch being more a repeat of their previous rematch (in which Alvarado was able to make the necessary adjustments to win by unanimous decision) than a repeat of their first fight (which Rios won by TKO).

I actually see Rios as the slightly physically and mentally tougher fighter in this matchup but think Alvarado will use his superior boxing skill, quickness, and mobility, as well as draw from the energy of the home crowd and knowledge of Rios' (predictable) tendencies to earn a competitive but clear decision victory. Some feel Alvarado will be distracted by his outside legal issues; Alvarado is a convicted felon who actually has a fairly lengthy history of legal troubles and to this point in his career has not let those issues affect his performance in the ring. (Alvarado entered his last fight vs. Rios with visible cuts on his face and neck stemming from a bar fight and was still able to win vs. a a fighter who beat him by TKO in their previous fight.) Alvarado will utilize the footwork he used with good success in their last fight, as well as his hand speed and quickness advantage to outwork the defensively inept Rios over the course of 12 rounds to win the rubbermatch of  what is destined to go down as one of the classic trilogies in boxing history.

(Note: though I think Alvarado by decision is the most likely outcome and the way to go with this fight, would also consider wagering a smaller amount on Rios by TKO/KO as a hedge as there is certainly a possibility Alvarado's age and recent wars have worn him down to a shell of his former self.)

Prediction: Alvarado by decision 

Follow @mouzonebrother  for additional boxing analysis and to be notified of new blog updates!!!

Stiverne vs. Wilder: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Bermane Stiverne (24-1-1, 21 KOs) vs. Deontay Wilder (32-0-0, 32 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: January 17, 2015
Weight class: Heavyweight
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Heavyweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Stiverne +175, Wilder -190 (5 Dimes, 1/17/15)
Purse: Stiverne: $910,000, Wilder: $1,000,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Stiverne - #2 ranked heavyweight, Wilder - #6 ranked heavyweight
Style: Stiverne: Orthodox, Wilder: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Positives for Stiverne
Negatives for Stiverne
Positives for Wilder
Negatives for Wilder
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Stiverne

• Current WBC heavyweight champion. Along with Wilder, is one of the most powerful punchers in boxing with a KO% of 81%  (21 KOs in 26 fights). Possesses outstanding punching power in both hands, especially his right hand. Has not lost a fight in over 7.5 years and has lost only one fight in his career overall. (The one loss by TKO as a result of a highly questionable stoppage.) First world heavyweight champion of Haitian descent.
• In addition to being a power puncher is a technically sound boxer who counter punches well and eludes flush punches with solid, continuous head movement. Is probably the best counter puncher in the heavyweight division. Very patient fighter who throws economical, but generally accurate shots with KO power. Will have a clear boxing IQ and skill advantage vs. Wilder.
• Best punch is the overhand right, which he's used to knock down a large percentage of his opponents, including multiple knockdowns in his two most recent victories vs. Chris Arreola. Has an improved jab (which is often used to set up his overhand right) and also possesses an excellent right uppercut. Has knocked out multiple opponents with reputations for having a good chin (including his most recent fight last May vs. Arreola).  
• Has a clear experience advantage over Wilder. Within the past four years, Stiverne has fought (and beaten) solid heavyweight contenders such as Arreola (twice), Ray Austin, and Kerston Manswell. Stiverne also has an experience advantage in terms of fighting into the later rounds of fights. By contrast this will be Wilder's first major title fight and in 32 pro fights, Wilder has never fought past the 4th round of a fight.  
• Is a natural athlete who earned a scholarship to play football at Michigan State under then head coach Nick Saban in the late 90s. (Did not play and eventually left the team due to knee and ankle injuries.) Has an older brother who played football for the national champion Miami Hurricanes in the early 90s. Has fast hands for a big man and above average defense with his high guard.
• Has a quiet confidence. Patient fighter who has a knack for staying calm in the face of immense pressure (as he faced in his two recent fights vs. Arreola).

Negatives for Stiverne

• Stiverne has only one loss in his professional career, but that loss was by early round TKO to a fighter who finished his boxing career with a 15-20 record (and had an 11-15 record at the time he fought Stiverne). Stiverne has certainly improved since that loss 7.5 years ago but how will he fare vs. arguably the toughest opponent he's fought in his career, an undefeated opponent who has 32 KOs in 32 fights? 
• Although Stiverne comes into this fight with more experience than Wilder, he's also a relatively untested fighter. Has never fought a current or former world heavyweight champion. Also, he hasn't fought as many rounds as one might expect for a fighter with 26 fights under his belt; the majority (16) of his 26 fights have failed to go past the 2nd round. 
• Stiverne has been relatively inactive over the past few years, having fought only once a year each of the past three years (due primarily to hand and shoulder injuries). Stiverne is also 36 years old, seven years older than Wilder. Will an older fighter with a history of nagging injuries be able to withstand the barrage of a devastating power puncher like Wilder?
• Stiverne is a somewhat stationary boxer who likes to fight off the ropes and use his high guard defense to block punches (as opposed to using movement to avoid punches) while waiting for counter punching opportunities. This style may not fare well vs. Wilder, who has the power to punch through a stationary, high guard defense. Although he won both fights, Stiverne was tagged quite a few times from a stationary position against the ropes vs. Arreola; it's highly possible that if Wilder lands those same punches, the result will be an early round TKO/KO in favor of Wilder.
• The quiet, reserved Stiverne is relatively unknown compared to Wilder, who has a fan-friendly personality and is quickly gaining a following among even casual boxing fans with his early round KO victories. The MGM Grand Garden arena crowd will be decidedly pro-Wilder.

Positives for Wilder

• Undefeated fighter who has won all 32 of his fights by TKO/KO (with 24 of those fights coming by 1st or 2nd round TKO/KO). Currently the most devastating power puncher in the heavyweight division and possesses the highest KO% in heavyweight boxing history. Is a former Olympic bronze medalist (Beijing, 2008) who is perhaps the best American heavyweight fighting today. 
• Naturally athletic boxer who is very quick for his size (though Stiverne has comparable quickness and speed).Very strong, tall, rangy fighter who will enter tonight's fight vs. Stiverne with a 5" height advantage (6'7" vs. 6'2") and a 3" reach advantage (83" vs. 80"). Wilder's height and range combined with elite raw power and speed is rare and makes him an extremely difficult matchup for anyone.
• Wilder's best punch is his straight right hand, which is arguably the best straight right hand in all of boxing. (The majority of his early-round KOs have resulted from this punch.) Though primarily a one-handed fighter, does have underrated power from his left side, in particular with his left hook which he used to knock out heavyweight contender Malik Scott in the first round of their fight last year.
• In his 32 professional fights has only been knocked down once and never been seriously hurt. Some of that is due to facing mediocre/weak competition but some is also due to his dominance on the offensive end and noticeably improved defense. 
• Highly confident, gregarious fighter with a fan-friendly, offensive-minded boxing style. The vast majority of the crowd at the MGM Grand Garden arena will be rooting for Wilder.

Negatives for Wilder

• Lacks experience, due in part to the fact that he didn't start boxing until he was 20 years old. Other than a couple of solid opponents in Malik Scott and Audley Harrison, has fought primarily C-level fighters over the course of his career - partly explaining why he has 32 KOs in 32 fights. This is Wilder's first heavyweight title fight and Stiverne will be by far the toughest opponent he's ever fought.
• In addition to lack of experience with quality opponents, Wilder lacks experience fighting into later rounds. None of his 32 professional fights have gone past the 4th round, with only 8 going past the 2nd round. Wilder's stamina and questionable technical skills may be an issue if Stiverne, who has a pretty good chin, can survive the early rounds.
• How will Wilder's chin hold up vs. one of the best power punchers in boxing? Wilder was knocked down and roughed up a bit in his fight four years ago vs. Harold Sconiers (a journeyman with an 18-27-2 record) before earning a 4th round TKO victory. Wilder was actually hit a few times in his most recent fight vs. a clearly out-of-shape journeyman in Jason Gavern who took the fight on 6-7 days' notice. And Wilder has suffered a loss by TKO as an amateur. Stiverne's punching power is comparable to Wilder's; it would not be a surprise to see Stiverne, who is the more accurate puncher of the two, land flush early to earn the TKO/KO victory. 
• Though freakishly athletic with arguably the best punching power in the sport, at the end of the day Wilder's boxing style is somewhat amateurish and predictable given his dependence mostly on his right hand and lack of polished boxing technique. Though improved over the course of recent fights, Wilder is sometimes sloppy and undisciplined during fights, at times throwing wild, inaccurate punches. The level of competition he's fought and his punching power have allowed him to get away with this thus far... but how will his still raw, unpolished style fare vs. the #2-ranked heavyweight in the world?

Summary

No matter how it ends, Stiverne vs. Wilder will be a sure-fire action fight, which is why it's the most anticipated heavyweight fight on American soil in many years. Whichever way the fight goes (and this is certainly a fight that could go either way), the fight likely won't go past six rounds due to the immense punching power both men possess.

Stiverne is the older, more experienced fighter whose punching power is actually comparable to the much-hyped power of Wilder, but Stiverne also has the technical skill and patience to translate his power into an early round TKO/KO upset victory. Stiverne has fought heavy handed punchers in the past (see his two most recent fights vs. Arreola) and generally dispatched of them with relative ease. He's also scored TKO/KO victories vs. boxers with more proven chins and better defense than Wilder so I certainly wouldn't be surprised if he gets the TKO/KO victory here and retains his title belt.

But I think Stiverne's patient, economical style will be his undoing. I feel that Wilder has what may prove to be amongst all-time great punching power to compliment his freakish athleticism, not to mention his height and reach advantages over Stiverne. I think Wilder will be able to use his height, reach, and quickness to stay out of range vs. Stiverne's power punches and will be able to penetrate Stiverne's high guard defense with his power very early in the fight. Stiverne is a patient, relatively stationary fighter whose tendency is to hold his gloves high and gauge his opponent (often while against the ropes) while waiting for an opening to counter punch with his deadly power punches... but I feel in this instance this patience will ultimately cost him the fight. The winner of this fight will likely be whoever lands the first big punches; I think Deontay, generally a fast starter, will jump on and outwork Stiverne early in the fight and be well on his way to a TKO/KO victory before Stiverne even has a chance to get settled. Even with his solid chin, I don't see a cautious, stationary Stiverne being able to withstand Wilder's early barrage. Once Wilder's power makes clean contact, the fight will likely be over soon after.

With Wilder's inexperience at the top level and unproven defensive skills this fight could certainly go either way, especially if it somehow gets into the later rounds. But I feel Wilder will largely be able to elude Stiverne's power with his with his height, speed, and reach and, given Stiverne's patient boxing style, will be given plenty of opportunities to land a fight-ending punch before Stiverne has a chance to land his.

Prediction: Wilder by TKO/KO

Khan vs. Alexander: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Amir Khan (29-3-0, 19 KOs) vs. Devon Alexander (26-2-0, 14 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: December 13, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC Silver Welterweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Khan -265, Alexander +245 (5 Dimes, 12/13/14)
Purse: Khan: $950,000, Alexander: $600,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Khan - #9 ranked welterweight, Alexander - #10 ranked welterweight
Style: Khan: Orthodox, Alexander: Southpaw
Referee: Robert Byrd

Positives for Khan
Negatives for Khan
Positives for Alexander
Negatives for Alexander
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Khan

• Former two-time light welterweight champion and Olympic silver medalist (Athens, 2004). Offensively gifted fighter who has arguably the fastest hands in boxing. His lightning quick hand speed combined with his accuracy and power makes him a very effective combination puncher in particular. Khan's quickness allows him to throw to throw a wide range of punches effectively from a variety of angles, generally making his attack unpredictable. In terms of offensive talent, is likely one of the top five boxers in the sport. 
• Similar to Manny Pacquiao, Khan is a very good ambush fighter (i.e., is adept at jumping in on his opponents and using his hand speed to land clean combinations, then using his foot speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter). Khan also has an excellent jab from distance; per CompuBox stats, Khan is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of jabs landed per round.  
• Overall very athletic boxer with great speed (both in his hands and feet) and high punch volume. (Per CompuBox stats, Khan is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of overall punches landed per round.) Has arguably never truly been outboxed in pro career, losing only due to TKO/KO (as he did vs. Breidis Prescott and Danny Garcia) or very controversial split decision which included multiple questionable point deductions (as he did vs. Lamont Peterson).
• Very experienced fighter. Khan has fought current and former world champions such as Marcos Antonio Barrera, Paulie Malignaggi, Marcos Maidana, Zab Judah, Lamont Peterson, and Danny Garcia; among these lost only to Peterson (in a very controversial split decision in Peterson's home town) and Garcia (in a fight where he was clearly outboxing Garcia before getting knocked down) while beating defeating the others decisively. Despite his good experience, Khan is only 28 years old and arguably still very much in the prime of his career.  
• Somewhat reckless fighter in the past who's shown a bit more discipline under Virgil Hunter, who's trained him for his last three fights. Looked especially impressive in his most recent fight vs. former WBA welterweight champion Luis Collazo, scoring three knockdowns in a wide unanimous decision victory. 
• British-Pakistani fighter who is very popular both in his native United Kingdom and in Pakistan. British fans travel to see his fights in the United States and, with his fan-friendly boxing style, Khan will likely have the majority of the crowd supporting him at in his fight vs. Alexander.
• Fights with tremendous heart and will to win, though this is sometimes to his detriment (as clearly seen in the fights he's lost, most notably vs. Garcia). Will be a very determined fighter vs. Alexander as he sees the fight as a path to setting up a big PPV fight early next year vs. Floyd Mayweather.

Negatives for Khan

• Khan's glaring weakness has always been his chin. Khan has been knocked down at least eight times in his pro career, including twice in his KO loss vs. Prescott and three times in his TKO loss vs. Garcia. His chin has also led to fights being closer than expected, such as his close but decisive win in December 2010 vs. Maidana and his fight last year vs. Julio Diaz. Khan was caught with left hooks in both of his TKO/KO losses vs. Prescott and Garica and in his most recent knockdown vs. Diaz. With his weak chin, Khan is prone to getting knocked out at any time by any boxer with above average punching power. 
• Fairly poor defensive fighter. Often fights with his hands down, doesn't move his head well, and doesn't move on his feet well defensively (i.e., is adept at jumping in on opponents with an offensive attack but sometimes stays inside too long and doesn't move well enough on his feet to evade his opponents' counter punches). Is working to improve defensive skills under new trainer Virgil Hunter but in this regard is still a work in progress.
• Was on the cusp of becoming an elite fighter (was as recently as three years ago ranked in the Ring Magazine pound-for-pound Top 10 in the world) and future boxing superstar before his chin and defensive liabilities were exposed. Unquestionable talent in terms of his boxing skills and athleticism but has questionable boxing IQ due to the defensive flaws mentioned above and occasional recklessness in the ring (though he has shown better discipline under Virgil Hunter). Despite nearly always outboxing his opponents, is very prone to making basic mistakes that can quickly swing the fight in his opponent's favor. 
• Is Khan still a top contender? Fought well in his most recent fight vs. Collazo but barely escaped a solid but journeyman fighter in Julio Diaz his previous fight in April 2013, including suffering a knockdown. (Some felt Diaz earned the draw or even won the fight outright.) Did beat a solid B+-level fighter in Carlos Molina in December 2012 but lost his two fights vs. top-level boxers prior to that (Peterson and Garcia). 
• Excellent fighter from distance and when jumping in to throw combinations but doesn't fight well when backing up. More of a finesse than physical fighter who is backed into corners easily at times.
• In Devon Alexander, Khan is facing arguably the toughest opponent of a career in which he's already suffered three losses. 
• Khan has very good punching power but his power is arguably overrated. His last TKO/KO victory was a 5th round TKO over three years ago in his July 2011 fight vs. Zab Judah.
• With his ambition to become a boxing superstar, Khan has, by his own admission, sometimes overlooked opponents. There have been indications Khan is overlooking his upcoming fight with Alexander and already possibly looking forward to a big money fight early next year vs. Mayweather.

Positives for Alexander

• Former world champion at light welterweight and welterweight. Slick, very good all-around boxer with solid technical skills. Tough, gritty southpaw who possesses one of the best chins in boxing; Alexander has never been knocked out and only been knocked down once in his professional career (in his win vs. Lucas Matthysse in June 2011), despite facing some of the more highly regarded power punchers in boxing like Matthysse, Marcos Maidana, and Randall Bailey. 27 years old and still in the prime of his career.
• Accurate and effective puncher - particularly with his right hand where his right uppercut and right hook are his best punches. Possesses good speed and is adept at throwing short, quick combinations. Has a good work rate in terms of punch volume and moves well around the ring. 
• Not as quick or fast as Khan but arguably more skilled, has higher boxing IQ, and a much better chin. Has beaten three notorious power punchers in Matthysse, Maidana, and Bailey (all of who hit harder than Khan) so Alexander likely won't have trouble with Khan's power. Won every round on two out of three judges' scorecards in his fight vs. Maidana, a fighter who earlier this year gave #1 pound-for-pound fighter Floyd Mayweather his toughest fight in years.
• Has only lost two fights in his professional career, both competitive fights to then undefeated fighters (Timothy Bradley in January 2011 and Shawn Porter in December 2013). Both losses were to highly aggressive fighters who roughed Alexander up on the inside; Khan is more of a finesse fighter who will try beat Alexander with his speed from the outside, jumping in only occasionally. 
• Alexander's punching power isn't great but is underrated. Defeated then light welterweight champion and tough-chinned Colombian Juan Urango by 8th round TKO, Urango's only loss by TKO/KO. Had the notoriously tough Maidana in trouble in the 6th round of their February 2012 fight.
• Unlike Khan is a very disciplined, poised fighter who doesn't get thrown off his game plan in tough situations. 

Negatives for Alexander

• Has underrated power but his power certainly isn't great. Khan's main weakness is his chin but he likely won't have to worry about getting knocked out by Alexander; Alexander hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over 4.5 years.  
• Has very good quickness and speed but is not as quick or fast as Khan. Alexander is used to having a speed advantage in his fights but Khan will have the clear speed advantage here. 
• Solid technical fighter but has a rigid, somewhat predictable style. While Alexander has been competitive in all his fights, his style lacks an element of surprise quality which may hurt him vs. a quicker fighter like Khan.
• Alexander has a great right hand but is not as effective with his left hand. In getting knocked down/knocked out, Khan has shown he is particularly susceptible to the left hook; Khan will have little to worry about with Alexander's left hook, which lacks real KO power.  
• If Alexander beats Khan, Khan will be the toughest fighter he has beaten. Alexander has never been considered an elite figher; he's beaten highly regarded Argentinean boxers Matthysse and Maidana (both in his hometown area of St. Louis, Missouri) but lost both times he stepped up to fight a top-level fighter away from home. 
• Khan's only losses have come vs. pressure fighters or fighters with true KO power (i.e., fighters who've negated Khan's speed with their physical strength). Alexander is more of a counter puncher than a pressure fighter and perhaps doesn't have the physical strength advantage to mitigate Khan's speed advantage. Alexander doesn't fight as well on the inside as he does from range, a weakness that largely contributed to the only two losses of his pro career (vs. Bradley and Porter).   
• Despite having a great chin, Alexander does have some defensive flaws. As shown in the Bradley and Porter fights, Alexander sometimes doesn't react to inside pressure well and generally doesn't fight well against the ropes. Would expect Khan, with his quickness and accuracy, to be effective in stretches applying pressure vs. Alexander with combination punches and jabs.

Summary

This is an intriguing fight as it is a battle between two very good, highly regarded boxers who very early in their careers reached the cusp of greatness but weren't able to break through into the ranks of the elite. Both Khan and Alexander have had setbacks in their careers but a win here could put one of them back on track to being considered one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world. Both fighters are aware there's a lot at stake; the winner of this fight would also be widely considered the most likely next opponent for Floyd Mayweather next year if Mayweather's negotiations with Manny Pacquiao don't work out.

Despite being an over 2 to 1 underdog, Alexander does have a real shot to win this fight. Even in his two losses, Alexander has always been competitive. Alexander is a very intelligent, disciplined with some top-level skills who should have success in spots landing his quick right hand and short combination punches vs. the defensively flawed Khan. Although Devon is not a pressure fighter by nature, if he can impose his physical strength and rough Khan up on the inside, this fight will be a lot closer than people think - to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if Devon pulled off the upset. And Devon does have underrated power to compliment his good hand speed; Khan has suffered TKO/KO losses to much slower fighters than Alexander so if Devon loads up and clips Khan flush with one of his quick right uppercuts or hooks a stoppage is certainly conceivable given Khan's unreliable chin.

There are good reasons to side with Alexander but I think Khan's speed will carry him to a clear victory on tonight's fight. Alexander is also a speedy fighter for sure but Khan is a level faster; I believe Khan will be successful in using his speed to get his punches off before Devon can land his. Devon does have one of the better chins in boxing but he's not the best fighters defensively; I expect Khan to land his long jab and patented combination punches consistently throughout the 12-round fight. Devon may catch Khan occasionally on counter punches but he doesn't have the power or the inside fighting skill to apply the pressure to Khan that's led to all his previous losses. I see this fight going the distance in a clear but competitive unanimous decision victory for Khan. If Khan looks impressive in this fight, it would give me even more reason to believe his speed and volume punching would give even Floyd Mayweather serious problems if they were to fight next year (which would be likely if the Pacquiao fight doesn't get made).

Prediction: Khan by decision

Pacquiao vs. Algieri: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Manny Pacquiao (56-5-2, 38 KOs) vs. Chris Algieri (20-0-0, 8 KOs)
Location: Cotai Arena, The Venetian Macau, Macau, China
Date: November 22, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs - fight is being held at 144lb catchweight)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Pacquiao -630, Algieri +520 (5 Dimes, 11/22/14)
Purse: Pacquiao: $25 million, Algieri: $1.675 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao - #4 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked welterweight), Algieri - #3 ranked light welterweight
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Algieri: Orthodox
Referee: Genaro Rodriguez

Positives for Pacquiao
Negatives for Pacquiao
Positives for Algieri
Negatives for Algieri
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Pacquiao

• Although he has (arguably) slipped somewhat, Pacquiao is still one of the elite fighters in the sport (ranked #4 pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine). Pacquiao still has much of the blazing hand speed and explosive power that made him a boxing icon. Future first ballot hall-of-famer who is alongside Floyd Mayweather as one of the top two fighters of this generation. 
• Ambush fighter who is adept at moving in on his opponents and using his excellent hand speed to land clean, powerful combinations, then using foot speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter. Although past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite speed and footwork and will have a clear hand and foot speed advantage going into this fight vs. Algieri.
• Pacquiao hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over 5 years (8 fights; last TKO/KO win was 12th round TKO of Miguel Cotto in November 2009) but still has KO power in both hands. Scored two knockdowns in his December 2012 fight vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and appeared on the verge of a KO victory before getting caught with a counter right hand near the end of the 6th round that ended the fight.
• Unpredictable, tricky fighter who often throws punches from awkward angles, making it very difficult for even skilled defensive fighters to anticipate where the punches are coming from. Manny's best punch is his straight left hand, which was especially effective for him in both fights vs. Timothy Bradley. Despite some defensive flaws, has excellent head movement, which can make him difficult to hit cleanly.
• Pacquiao has had great success in the past vs. taller fighters with a significant reach advantage (see his fights. vs. 5'11" Antonio Margarito and 5'10" Oscar De La Hoya who were both dominated by Pacquiao despite the height and 5" reach advantage). Shorter fighters can often be elusive for taller fighters as taller fighters may have to bend over and shoot punches at angles to catch their opponents.
• How much has Pacquiao really slipped over his past few fights? The vast majority of boxing fans felt Pacquiao won both fights vs. Bradley convincingly. In his most recent fight vs. Marquez, Pacquiao was clearly winning the fight; knocking Marquez down twice and appearing to be on his way towards a KO victory before Marquez ended the fight with a sneaky right hand. In Pacquiao's last fight vs. Brandon Rios, Pacquiao arguably won all 12 rounds. (One judge in the Rios fight did score all 12 rounds for Pacquiao.) 
• Experienced fighter whose defense and technical skills have improved over the years under HOF trainer Freddie Roach. Arguably outboxed Bradley in both of their fights and Marquez in their most recent fight despite taking losses in two out of the three fights. Despite slightly diminished power and speed is less reckless and displays higher boxing IQ now than he did in his prime. Will come into this fight with a clear advantage in experience vs. Algieri, who has previously only fought in one world title fight and never fought a pro fight outside the New York City metropolitan area. In his HOF career, Pacquiao has already dominated and/or knocked out much tougher opponents than Algieri.
• The crowd at the Venetian in Macau will be overwhelmingly pro-Pacquiao. Pacquiao, arguably the greatest Asian fighter in the history of the sport, will be fighting in front of a mostly Asian crowd. Pacquiao's trainer Freddie Roach is also popular in China as he is the current trainer of wildly popular Chinese boxer (and current WBO International Flyweight champion and two-time Olympic gold medalist) Zhou Shiming (who will be fighting on the undercard that same night). Fighting in Asia, it is unlikely the relatively unknown Algieri will get a decision victory vs. Pacquiao unless he clearly dominates the fight. 
• Unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big PPV fights.

Negatives for Pacquiao

• Pacquiao is 35 years old (more than 5 years older than Algieri) and, while still an elite fighter, has lost some of the power, speed, and quickness he had in his prime. Pacquiao has lost two out of his last four fights and hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over half a decade (8 fights). Generally, boxers who rely on hand speed, quickness, and other athletic abilities don't age as well as pure technical boxers.
• Though inexperienced. Pacquiao's opponent Algieri is an undefeated, highly confident world champion currently in the prime of his career. As he showed in his most recent fight vs. Provodnikov, Algieri is tough and resilient; many knowledgeable boxing fans feel he has the boxing skills to pull off the upset vs. the aging Pacquiao.
• Pacquiao is fighting at both a significant height and reach disadvantage vs. a very skilled boxer in Algieri. Despite Manny's significant speed advantage, Algieri's range and above average mobility may make it difficult for Manny to land clean punches.
• Pacquiao is an excellent ambush fighter who boxes very well when coming towards his opponents but does not fight nearly as well when fighting backing up on his feet. Algieri has a fairly powerful, accurate jab which, when combined with his reach advantage, can back Pacquiao into positions where he won't be able to fight as effectively. If Algieri is as effective with his jab as he was vs. Provodnikov, this fight could be competitive. 
• While Pacquiao's defense has improved over the years with Freddie Roach, Pacquiao is far from a defensive mastermind. Pacquiao's aggression and awkward punching style often leaves him out-of-position, subjecting him to clean counter punching (as seen multiple times in his KO loss vs. Marquez and in the early rounds of his most recent fight vs. Bradley). Pacquiao also isn't as mobile and doesn't roll with punches quite as well as he did in his prime. If he can survive the early rounds, Algieri is a solid, savvy counter puncher who is capable of making the necessary adjustments to exploit Pacquiao's defensive flaws in spots.
• Pacquiao's significant distractions outside the ring have been well-publicized. Pacquiao is a full-time Congressman in the Phillipines when he's not boxing and as a recently born-again Christian, has made numerous lifestyle changes. Pacquiao is also the (part-time) head coach and player for the Kia Sorentos, a basketball team in the Philippine Basketball Association, the top basketball league in the Phillipines. Pacquiao also has a long-term goal of being President of the Phillipines. Is his heart still really in boxing? With all his distractions, Pacquiao could easily overlook a very tough, solid fighter in Algieri and come into this fight unprepared.

Positives for Algieri

• Current WBO light welterweight champion. Very tough, resilient fighter with high boxing IQ and solid all-around boxing skills. Algieri is undefeated in 20 professional fights and has beaten proven fighters such as Emmanuel Taylor (who lost a close decision to Adrien Broner in his most recent fight) and former WBO light welterweight champion Ruslan Provodnikov. Highly confident fighter who truly believes he will win this fight.
• Tall, long fighter who throws combinations well and is especially accurate with his jabs and lead right punch. Is generally a counter puncher who has good speed and fights well off his back foot. Algieri's solid jab was key in his recent upset win vs. Provodnikov; opponents with solid jabs have often used the jab with good success vs. Pacquiao (see Bradley, Marquez, and Erik Morales's fights vs. Pacquiao). 
• Algieri is 30 years old - five years younger than Pacquiao. At 5'11" with a 72" reach, Algieri possesses a 4" height and 5" reach advantage vs. Pacquiao; although Pacquiao has in the past had success vs. taller, longer fighters, Algieri may have the speed and savvy to use his height and reach to his advantage. Despite fighting at lower weight classes than Pacquiao (Algieri currently competes at 140 lbs), Algieri is the naturally bigger man and will likely come in to the fight with the weight advantage.   
• Technically skilled boxer with the ability to adjust to his opponent's style over the course of a fight. Made effective adjustments in his most recent fight vs. Provodnikov after being knocked down twice in the 1st round to pull off the upset victory.
• Extremely well conditioned fighter with good endurance. Algieri works professionally as nutritionist and personal trainer and has a master's degree in clinical nutrition.
• Gritty boxer who also has experience as a kick boxer; was an undefeated world kickboxing champion before retiring to become a professional boxer.

Negatives for Algieri

• Algieri is undefeated (20-0) as a pro but has not fought anything close to the elite level of competition Pacquiao has. Algieri's toughest opponents to date have been a solid B-level fighter in Emmanuel Taylor (over whom he scored a competitive but clear unanimous decision victory) and a one-dimensional power puncher in Ruslan Provodnikov, over whom he scored a highly debatable split decision win. (I scored the fight 116-110 for Provodnikov.) It's highly possible Algieri is in way over his head vs. Pacquiao, an all-time great who has significantly more experience, talent, and skill than anyone he has ever fought.
• Algieri moves well and has good hand and foot speed but Pacquiao's footwork and speed is on another level, (i.e., among that of the all-time greats). If a relatively slow, flat-footed boxer such as Provodnikov was able to successfully pressure Algieri (Provodnikov knocked Algieri down twice in the first round and applied effective pressure in various other spots throughout the fight), how will Algieri be able to handle the lightning quick speed combined with power of Pacquiao? Both Timothy Bradley and Juan Manuel Marquez, two future hall-of-famers much more skilled and elusive than Algieri, had  (by their own admittance) problems with Pacquiao's speed - why would Algieri fare any different? 
•  Algieri lacks punching power; of Algieri's 20 wins, only 8 were by TKO/KO (with half of those 8 occurring in his first 6 fights vs. weak, unknown competition). Algieri is considered less of a puncher than former Pacquiao opponent Timothy Bradley, who was noted for his lack of punching power. Algieri's lack of power will likely allow Pacquiao to stay aggressive and take more chances in the fight. 
• Despite winning the fight, Algieri suffered massive swelling of his right eye vs. Provodnikov a few months ago. If Pacquiao targets the eye (which is highly possible), would expect the eye to re-swell and cause Algieri problems over the latter course of the fight.
• Algieri will have a clear height and reach advantage coming into the fight but those "advantages" may actually be a liability as taller, longer fighters often have trouble locating and landing clean punchers against shorter fighters (who tend to be quicker and more elusive). Pacquiao has had success in the past in high profile fights vs. taller fighters with range. 
• This fight is the first time Algieri has fought at welterweight in his career. The fight will actually be held at a catchweight (144 lbs) but this is the first time Algieri had fought above 140 lbs. How will his power (or, rather, his previously noted lack thereof) transfer to a higher weight class vs. a slightly larger opponent? Pacquiao, on the other hand, is very experienced at welterweight; many of his most notable fights took place at welterweight. 
• Algieri has never fought a solid southpaw in his career. His two notable fights vs. Provodnikov and Taylor were both fights against right-handed opponents.  
• This fight in Macau, China will be Algieri's first professional fight outside the New York City metropolitan area. How will he handle fighting overseas in front of an overwhelmingly pro-Pacquiao crowd? Despite the fact that two of the judges are from the U.S. can Algieri, who is little to no threat to win this fight by knockout, really expect to get a decision victory in China?

Summary

Other than a lucky punch (and it would have to be *very* lucky punch considering his lack of power), I'm not seeing how Algieri will pull off the upset here. Yes, Algieri is undefeated and is a tough, solid boxer with underrated skills. With his mobility and accurate jab, Algieri may have success in spots using his reach advantage to jab and evade Pacquiao's frequent ambush attacks or use his jab as a set up for clean counters when Pacquiao tries to get inside. Algieri is very well conditioned so I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is able to move effectively and box off his back foot the entire 12 rounds vs. Pacquiao without tiring. If Pacquiao fights a somewhat cautious fight (as he has for stretches of his previous two fights vs. Brandon Rios and Bradley after losing by KO in his 4th fight vs. Marquez), there is a possibility Algieri could outwork Pacquiao in spots to keep the fight competitive.

But I see Pacquiao's speed advantage being the key to this fight. Despite being 35 years old and past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite hand and foot speed, the likes of which Algieri has never seen before. Pacquiao still has great talent, skill, power, and experience, also the likes of which Algieri has never seen before. Algieri can try to move and stay out of range from Pacquiao's power all he wants but he certainly won't be able to go a full 12 (or even a couple) of rounds before Manny and his superior speed eventually catches up to him. Algieri was able to stay competitive vs. Provodnikov largely because Ruslan is flat-footed (i.e., usually has to be set before throwing a power punch) and Chris had the speed advantage; in this fight Manny will have the clear speed advantage vs. Algieri and is capable of throwing punching from a variety of awkward angles that will be difficult for Algieri to anticipate.

I feel Pacquiao's speed and power will easily overwhelm Algieri's reach advantage, mobility, and whatever game plan he has in store for Manny. Algieri is a tough kid for sure and I would not at all be surprised if he gets through all 12 rounds, but I'm leaning towards by Pacquiao by TKO/KO. Algieri has beaten every opponent put in front of him but, even at 35, Pacquiao is a couple levels above not only every opponent Algieri has ever faced but Algieri himself; I expect Pacquiao's brilliance to shine once again Saturday night in Macau.

Prediction: Pacquiao by TKO/KO

Hopkins vs. Kovalev: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Bernard Hopkins (55-6-2-2, 32 KOs) vs. Sergey Kovalev (25-0-1, 23 KOs)
Location: Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey
Date: November 8, 2014
Weight class: Light Heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super Light Heavyweight title, IBF Light Heavyweight title, WBO Light Heavyweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Hopkins +240, Kovalev -260 (5 Dimes, 11/8/14)
Purse: Hopkins: $1 million, Kovalev: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Hopkins - #1 ranked light heavyweight, Kovalev - #2 ranked light heavyweight
Style: Hopkins: Orthodox, Kovalev: Orthodox

Positives for Hopkins

• Along with Marvin Hagler and Carlos Monzon, one of the great middleweight boxers of all time. In his prime, defended his middleweight title(s) a record 20 consecutive times over a 10+ year period. Current IBF, WBA, and IBA light heavyweight champion of the world and is the oldest boxer to ever win and defend a world title. Still a master class technician at age 49. Future first ballot hall-of-famer.
• Tough, savvy boxer with an extremely high boxing IQ (perhaps the highest IQ in the sport). Has an excellent trainer in Naazim Richardson but practically coaches himself during fights. Adept at making adjustments during the fight and neutralizing his opponent's strengths. Superb all-around boxer with no major weaknesses.
• Particularly adept at fighting inside and wearing his opponents down with body shots. Arguably the best inside fighter of the past 20 years.
•  Has excellent defensive skills. Keeps chin down behind his lead shoulder with his hands held high, making him a tough target to hit cleanly. Has a solid chin when hit.
• Hopkins is a more skilled, technically sound boxer than Kovalev. Hopkins generally controls the pace/tempo of fights and is adept at using "gray-area" tactics (e.g., excessive clinching, hitting opponents during clinches, head butts, smothering, etc.) to his advantage.  
• Doesn't have the knockout power he once had but still has good power in both hands. In his most recent fight (vs. then WBA light heavyweight champion Beibut Shumenov), scored a knockdown in the 11th round. 
• At 49 years old, will still have a speed/mobility advantage vs. the slower Kovalev. Hopkins has excellent (and often underrated) footwork as well as a slight (2.5") reach advantage which he will likely use to try and manage distance and neutralize Kovalev's dangerous knockout power. Hopkins has had success in the past vs. big punchers with slower mobility (e.g., his victories vs. at the time undefeated boxers Felix Trinidad and Kelly Pavlik). 
• Despite his age is still in world class shape, as evidenced by the fact that he is the current light heavyweight champion of the world and within the past 3.5 years has convincingly beaten the likes of Beibut Shumenov (almost 19 years his junior), Karo Murat (18 years his junior), Tavoris Cloud (17 years his junior), and Jean Pascal (18 years his junior) - 3 of whom are former world champions and all of whom were ranked one of the top 10 light heavyweight boxers in the world at the time they fought Hopkins. (Pascal and Shumenov are still currently ranked in the top 5 of light heavy weight boxers in the world.)
• Hopkins is the more experienced fighter by a wide margin. Has fought (and beaten) the likes of Keith Holmes, Felix Trinidad, Oscar De La Hoya, Roy Jones Jr., Kelly Pavlik, and William Joppy. In his prime, Hopkins achieved a record 20 middleweight world title defenses. For comparison, Kovalev's best opponents have been lesser known, B-level fighters such as Nathan Cleverly and Gabriel Campillo (though both are former world champions). 
• Will be fighting in front of a decidedly pro-Hopkins crowd in Atlantic City, NJ (only a one hour drive from his hometown of Philadelphia, PA). This will be Hopkins' 19th time fighting in Atlantic City as a pro. 

Negatives for Hopkins

• Hopkins is 49 years old (only two months from his 50th birthday and eligibility to join AARP), 18 years older than Kovalev. For comparison, Hopkins is actually over a year older than long-retired former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson and is only slightly younger than retired boxing legends Pernell Whitaker (50 years old), Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. (52), and Evander Holyfield (52). Hopkins has consistently fought at a world-class level and beaten top-level competition but he'll inevitably slow down at his older age. Could this fight vs. the naturally bigger, younger, more powerful Kovalev be the fight where he finally shows his age? 
• While Hopkins has fought a lot of top-level competition in his recent fights, he's only fought one boxer over the past six years considered "elite" at the time they fought (Chad Dawson) and struggled in both fights. (The first fight was a no contest decision that Hopkins was clearly losing and the second fight Hopkins lost by majority decision.)
• Although Hopkins has an excellent chin, he is susceptible to being knocked down, having been knocked down twice in both his first fight vs. Jean Pascal in 2011 and his first fight vs. Segundo Mercado back in 1994 (both fights ended in a draw). Although Hopkins was not seriously hurt after any of those knockdowns neither Pascal nor Mercado possess the punching power of Kovalev, who has knocked out by early round TKO/KO nearly 90% of the opponents he's faced. 
• Notoriously slow starter in fights. Starts slow while taking the time to read and make adjustments to his opponent.  
• Has a tendency to pace himself during fights, especially in this late stage of his career where the volume of punches he throws is noticeably down from where it was in his prime. He'll often fight in spurts, sometimes having significant portions of rounds where he isn't very active (which leaves him susceptible to being outworked and outscored on the judges' scorecards). Sometimes slow in setting up his punches.
• Although he has good power in both hands, Hopkins doesn't have the knockout power he once had. Hopkins has never really been a knockout puncher and won't win this fight by KO. If Hopkins wants to win this fight, he'll have to win by decision. 

Positives for Kovalev

• Undefeated boxer (25-0-1) and current WBO light heavyweight champion. (Lone draw on his record was a technical stoppage due to an accidental foul in the 2nd round.) Devastating power puncher with excellent power in both hands. 
• Out of his 25 wins, 23 (almost 90%) have come by KO. One of the most feared men in boxing. Has literally killed another boxer in the ring. (Roman Simakov died of brain injuries days after his December 2011 fight with Kovalev.)
• Although known primarily as a power puncher, Kovalev has underrated boxing skills. Patient fighter who doesn't waste punches.Very efficient, highly accurate puncher who throws combinations well and has an excellent straight right hand (as seen in his most recent fight vs. Blake Caparello). When punching uses angles well and is effective at throwing leaping lead hooks from distance, which makes him somewhat unpredictable in his attack. Is also a devastating body puncher, one of the best in the sport.
• At 31 years old, Kovalev is in the prime of his career facing a nearly 50-year old fighter nearing the end of his career. Hopkins is an all-time great but Kovalev is the younger, naturally bigger, and stronger fighter.
• Kovalev doesn't have the top-level experience Hopkins has but he does have good experience vs. very solid fighters. The combined record of Kovalev's five most recent opponents was an impressive 113-2-1 before he fought them, including two undefeated fighters in Nathan Cleverly and Cedric Agnew and two former world champions in Cleverly and Gabriel Campillo. 
• Kovalev's trainer, John David Jackson, has years of experience with Hopkins; sparring with him early in his career, fighting against him in a 1997 middleweight title fight, and as his assistant trainer for four years (including during Hopkins' upset victories vs. Antonio Tarver and Kelly Pavlik). Jackson knows Hopkins as well as nearly any trainer in the sport, which is certainly to Kovalev's advantage.  

Negatives for Kovalev

• While Kovalev has fought some solid opponents, his experience isn't even close to that of Hopkins, who has fought (and decisively beaten) future first ballot hall-of-famers like Felix Trinidad, Oscar De La Hoya, and Roy Jones Jr. Hopkins is by far the best opponent Kovalev has faced in his career.  
• Kovalev has never gone past eight rounds in his professional career, having been to the eight round only once and past the 4th round only four times in his career. Hopkins' defensive skill and experience means there's a good change Kovalev's stamina and ability to box past the early/mid rounds will be tested for the first time in his career. 
• Kovalev is one of the most feared punchers in boxing, but is unproven as an inside fighter; Hopkins, one of the great inside fighters in the history of boxing, may have some success if he can smother Kovalev and make the fight an inside brawl. Kovalev has KO power in both hands but his power isn't quite as strong from his left hand as it is from his right.
• Kovalev's defense is far from poor but is flawed. Kovalev's come forward, offensive-minded approach often results in his dropping his guard which leaves him susceptible to clean counters, something Hopkins will likely try to take advantage of. (If Hopkins wins the fight it will likely largely be due to his ability to exploit Kovalev's defensive holes though Kovalev opponents are often fearful of throwing counter punches as it leaves them exposed to Kovalev's power.) Kovalev's chin is also not proven; he's suffered a first-round knockout loss as an amateur and has been knocked down twice as a professional, including his last fight vs. Caparello.
• While Kovalev's boxing skills are very good (and oft underrated), Hopkins is still the superior boxer in terms of technical skill and IQ. Kovalev won't win a chess match vs. Hopkins. Hopkins will also have a speed and footwork advantage vs. the somewhat slower, less agile Kovalev. 

Prefight Summary

This is a tough fight to predict as there are many ways this fight could go (depending on a number of different variables). Bernard Hopkins is certainly a master class boxer, one of the great (i.e., top 50) boxers in the history of the sport. It would not at all be surprising to see Hopkins pull off the upset; he has been in this position a few times before (as a significant underdog to a younger, undefeated, hyped-up boxer with big punching power) vs. boxers even more highly regarded than Kovalev and more than once won convincingly (see his fights vs. Trinidad and Pavlik). Hopkins is a master at adjusting to his opponents' tendencies and has the uncanny ability to neutralize his opponents' strengths over the course of a fight. I can easily see Hopkins using his technical skill, footwork, and speed advantage to stay out of Kovalev's power punching range but also be capable of sneaking in on Kovalev to make the fight a brawl from the inside, where Kovalev is largely untested. (Hopkins on the other hand is one of the best inside fighters of his generation.) In focusing primarily on his offensive attack, Kovalev's defense is suspect at times; Hopkins will likely have spots in the fight where he exposes Kovalev's defensive holes with clean counter punches. Kovalev has shown his defensive flaws in previous fights vs. lesser fighters - I'd expect there will be at least a few moments in the fight where Hopkins will have the opportunity to outpoint Kovalev, perhaps even enough to earn Hopkins a victory by decision.

The (huge) rub here is that Hopkins, while still a top-level boxer, is almost 50 years old and near the end of his career fighting a deadly power puncher in his prime who is younger, naturally bigger, and stronger than him. Hopkins is still a very good boxer but his punching volume has decreased and skills have diminished a bit since his prime days as a middleweight champion; I doubt he'll be able to outwork Kovalev (and may not even try to fully engage Kovalev as that will leave him more prone to Kovalev countering with his devastating punching power).

Kovalev is an excellent power puncher for sure, but he is also a very skilled boxer. He's an intelligent fighter who throws punches with a high level of efficiency and is very accurate. While not as agile as Hopkins, Kovalev does possess pretty good foot mobility and hand speed; there's a good chance Hopkins' elusiveness and defensive skills keeps him out of danger for much of the fight but I see it as only a matter of time over the course of 12 rounds before Kovalev lands a devastating punch (or series of punches) that changes the course of the fight. Hopkins may try to smother Kovalev and turn the fight into an inside brawl (which may mitigate Kovalev's punching power) but Kovalev, the bigger and stronger fighter, should be able to outmuscle Hopkins and not allow him to dictate the pace of the fight.

Hopkins is a current world champion who has won his last three fights by decision vs. very solid opponents but during the same time frame, Kovalev has won by early-round TKO/KO vs. comparably-skilled fighters. Kovalev is a level or two above any opponent Hopkins has fought over the past two years and will show it Saturday night.

Because Hopkins has never been knocked out or seriously hurt in a fight I'm reluctant to pick Kovalev by TKO/KO but do think Kovalev's punching power and underrated boxing skill will carry him to victory if not by mid-round TKO/KO then by a 117-111/116-112'ish unanimous decision victory. Kovalev is is exactly the type of fighter who will force Hopkins, for the first time in his long and brilliant career, to finally show his age.

Prediction: Kovalev to win 

Golovkin vs. Rubio: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Gennady Golovkin (30-0-0, 27 KOs) vs. Marco Antonio Rubio (59-6-1, 51 KOs)
Location: Stubhub Center, Carson, California
Date: October 18, 2014
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Middleweight title, IBO World Middleweight title, interim WBC World Middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Golovkin -5700, Rubio +3600 (5 Dimes, 10/18/14)
Purse: Golovkin: $900,000,  Rubio: $350,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin - #1 ranked middleweight, Rubio - #5 ranked middleweight
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Rubio: Orthodox
Referee: Jack Reiss

Positives for Golovkin

• Current Ring Magazine #1 middleweight and reigning WBA and IBO middleweight champion. Undefeated at 30-0 and, with 27 KOs in 30 fights, holds the highest knockout percentage in middleweight history. Named Ring Magazine fighter of the year in 2013 after four impressive KO victories. 
• Offensively gifted boxer who possesses elite KO power in both hands. Golovkin's 90% KO percentage (27 KOs in 30 fights) ranks first among active current and former champions and ranks second overall in championship history. Has the potential to go down as one of the great power punchers in the history of the sport.
• Intelligent pressure fighter who is excellent at using footwork to cut off the ring. Very efficient boxer who tends not to waste punches.
•  Has outstanding power but is also technically savvy. Golovkin does not have great hand speed but makes up for it with an outstanding jab and methodical, accurate combination punching. Per CompuBox stats, Golovkin lands more jabs per round than any other CompuBox-tracked fighter and other than ultra-aggressive super bantamweight champion Leo Santa Cruz, Golovkin lands more overall punches per round than any other CompuBox-tracked fighter. Per CompuBox plus/minus ratings, other than #1 pound-for-pound champion Floyd Mayweather Jr., Golovkin is the most dominant fighter in the sport. 
•  Possesses an excellent chin. Golovkin has never been knocked down or knocked out over approximately 380 fights as an amateur and pro. 
• Has an impressive amateur pedigree, with over 340 wins (including wins vs. Andre Dirrell, Lucian Bute, and Andy Lee) against only 5 losses. Won a silver medal medal for his native Kazakhstan in the 2004 Summer Olympics in Athens, Greece. 
• Trains with Abel Sanchez, a very underrated fighter who has trained numerous former champions including Terry Norris, Olin Norris, Carlos Baldomir, and Samuel Peter. 

Negatives for Golovkin

• Golovkin is fighting arguably his toughest opponent to date in Rubio, an experienced veteran who is naturally bigger than Golovkin.  
• Rubio is a tough, hard-nosed fighter who could survive into the later rounds with Golovkin. Does Golovkin have the stamina to fight effectively in later rounds? Out of 30 professional fights, Golovkin has only gone to the 10th round once in his career and only fought past six rounds seven other times. 
• While applying pressure vs. his opponents, Golovkin sometimes has shown susceptibility to getting caught with clean counter punches (most recently in 3rd round of his fight vs. Geale before knocking him out). Golovkin has a great chin but often focuses more on offense than protecting himself defensively so at times is open to be hit when he drops his guard. 
• Is not as good a boxer fighting inside as he is from distance, as shown at times in the Gabriel Rosado fight and early in his fight with Daniel Geale. If Rubio can use his size advantage and toughness to turn the fight into an inside brawl he may have a chance of making the fight competitive.
• Golovkin is being promoted as possibly the next big star in boxing but he is 32 years old so likely is towards the end of the prime of his career. 
• While highly accurate and efficient, Golovkin does not possess great speed or quickness, though he will have an advantage in both areas vs. Rubio.

Positives for Rubio

• Former interim WBC Middleweight champion (lost title after failing to make weight for this fight).Oft underrated/overlooked fighter who is tough and very strong-willed. Experienced boxer who is arguably Golovkin's best opponent to date. 
• Naturally bigger fighter than Golovkin who has gone the distance with power punchers bigger than Golovkin (e.g., Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.). Fight could be competitive if he can impose his size and will on Golovkin and keep the fight on the inside.
• Powerful, heavy-handed boxer who counter punches well. 51 of his 59 wins have come by TKO/KO. Most effective punches are his straight jab and straight overhand right.
• Has beaten a fighter similar to Golovkin in David Lemieux. In April 2011, Lemieux was a highly regarded undefeated boxer who had won 24 of his 25 professional fights by knockout. Despite being a heavy underdog fighting in Lemieux's home town of Montreal, Rubio defeated Lemieux by 7th-round TKO despite Lemieux dominating the early the rounds.   
• Not great defensively, but uses high guard defense well to block punches. Hasn't been stopped in over 5 years.
• Trainer is Robert Garcia, who is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  

Negatives for Rubio

• Widely considered a "B" level fighter with good boxing skills, but on a level below elite fighters like Golovkin. Experienced, but has already lost/been knocked out multiple times vs. lesser fighters than Golovkin. In the past has lost decisively when stepping up to fight top-level opponents such as Chavez Jr. and Kelly Pavlik.
• Despite eventually winning by 10th-round TKO, did not look impressive in most recent fight vs. Domenico Spada.
• Relatively low-volume puncher who at times loses rounds due to inactivity. Can't afford to fall behind on the scorecards vs. a fighter like Golovkin.
• Flawed defensive fighter who lacks upper body movement. Will likely not be a difficult target for Golovkin's jab and combination punches. 
• While Rubio is known for his power punching, Golovkin has already fought a bigger puncher in Curtis Stevens, who he defeated decisively by TKO in 8 rounds.

Prefight Summary

This is not a tough fight to predict, but this is an intriguing matchup as Rubio is probably the best fighter Golovkin has ever fought in his professional career. Rubio is a very tough, gritty guy with good power whose size and experience could pose problems for Golovkin. If Rubio can survive the early rounds and impose his size and will on Golovkin in the later rounds, this fight could get very interesting. Rubio is currently a massive 36-1 underdog so it may be worth putting a small amount on him to pull off the upset, especially given that he's the more experienced fighter and will be fighting in the Los Angeles area in front of a crowd that will include a large number of Mexican fans rooting for him.

As a super-aggressive pressure fighter, Golovkin does at times leave himself open to counters; Rubio might be the guy that has the power and counter punching ability to withstand Golovkin's pressure. Again, if Rubio can get through the early rounds, Golovkin is largely untested in his pro career in mid to later rounds so the fight could be up for grabs if it gets to that point.

With all this said, I see this as being another very easy fight for Golovkin. Despite his toughness, Rubio at the end of the day is a B-level fighter with limited hand speed and defensive skills; as the fight progresses it will only be a matter of time before he succumbs to Golovkin's pressure. Rubio has lost decisively in the past every time he's stepped up to fight top-level power punchers (see his fights vs. Pavlik and Chavez Jr.) and I expect this fight to be no different.

Golovkin has never been knocked down or out in his amateur or professional career (approximately 380 fights) so even if Rubio were to catch him with some solid shots, I expect Golovkin to largely walk through Rubio's attack en route to an easy early to mid round TKO/KO victory. How impressive Golovkin looks against an experienced, proven veteran like Rubio - who happens to be trained by one of the top boxing trainers in the world in Robert Garcia - will go a long way in determining whether or not his name belongs up there with the top pound-for-pound boxers in the sport.

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO 

Mayweather vs. Maidana II: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Floyd Mayweather (46-0-0, 26 KOs) vs. Marcos Maidana (35-4-0, 31 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 13, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC welterweight title, WBA Super World Welterweight title, WBC light middleweight title
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Mayweather -725, Maidana +585 (5 Dimes, 9/13/14)
Purse: Mayweather: $32 million,  Maidana: $3 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Floyd Mayweather - #1 ranked pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine welterweight and junior middleweight champion), Maidana - #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, Maidana: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Positives for Mayweather

• Current Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound fighter. Master technician who is one of the greatest boxers in the history of the sport. Has been ranked #1 pound-for-pound for much of the past decade and is widely considered the greatest boxer of this generation. Future first ballot hall-of-famer and has yet to lose a fight (46-0 record). Current WBC welterweight, WBC light middleweight, and WBA Super welterweight champion. 
• One of the great defensive fighters in the history of the sport. Excellent footwork, speed, and defensive technique makes him nearly impossible to hit cleanly. Per CompuBox stats, opponents land only 18% of punches vs. Mayweather, the 2nd lowest percentage landed amongst all CompuBox-tracked boxers. (Only opponents of Guillermo Rigondeaux land a lower percentage of punches.) Mayweather has mastered the shoulder roll, pull counter, and a variety of other defensive techniques to the extent that his opponents consistently miss punches even when they have him pinned to a corner of the ring. 
• Possibly the most efficient fighter in the history of the sport. Mayweather lands 42% of punches thrown, which leads all CompuBox-tracked boxers. In terms of CompuBox statistics, Floyd has dominated nearly every fighter he's ever fought.
• Already beat Maidana in previous fight in what was a competitive majority decision victory. Per CompuBox stats, Mayweather outlanded the more aggressive Maidana (230 to 221) and landed at a significantly higher percentage of punches (54%  to 26%). Landing at least 50% of power punches is generally considered excellent; Mayweather landed 65% of his power punches (compared to Maidana's 34%). 
• Counterpuncher by nature who uses his speed and reflexes to make opponents miss before countering with an unpredictable assortment of straight right hands, jabs, and left hooks. Has a quick release which makes it extremely difficult for his opponents to time his punches. 
• Widely considered one of the smartest and fundamentally sound boxers in the history of the sport. Highly adept at reading his opponents and making technical adjustments over the course of the fight. Rematches tend to favor the more technically sound boxer; in fighting Maidana a second time one would expect the technically superior Mayweather to be more likely to make the adjustments necessary to make the rematch an easier fight. In the first fight, Mayweather had a rough time in the early rounds before making adjustments and dominating the second half of the fight (I scored 6 of the last 7 rounds for Mayweather) - will the rematch simply be a continuation of the second half of the previous fight now that Floyd knows what to expect?   
• Excellent at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Throws very accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body. 
• Has been criticized for the quality of his opponents but the majority of opponents Mayweather has fought over the past seven years were ranked in the Ring Magazine top ten pound-for-pound at the time they fought Mayweather. Including the past two Maidana fights, Mayweather's last 14 opponents were either current or former major titleholders at the time they fought Mayweather.
• Kenny Bayless, who many consider the best referee in boxing, will ref the rematch vs. Maidana. Bayless is more likely to minimize much of the dirty fighting on the inside that occurred in the first fight (which appeared to favor Maidana).
• At 37 years old, Mayweather is in excellent shape, trains very hard, and will not overlook any opponent - even a heavy underdog like Maidana.

Negatives for Mayweather

• In the first fight last May, Maidana gave Mayweather one of the toughest fights of his career, arguably his toughest fight since the first Jose Luis Castillo fight in 2002. Per CompuBox stats, Maidana threw over twice as many punches (858 vs. 426) and landed more punches vs. Floyd than any other CompuBox-tracked opponent Floyd has fought. Maidana had a lot of success in the early rounds (particularly when backing Floyd into the corner of the ring). Many people saw the first fight as very close; one of the three judges even scored the fight a 114-114 draw. 
• Although still widely considered the top boxer in the sport, Mayweather is 37 years old, a few years past his prime, and doesn't have quite the power and speed he had when he was younger (though his power and speed haven't slipped too much). Mayweather's first fight with Maidana was one of the toughest fights of his career; if this was due at least in part to Mayweather's skills declining with age there is a good change Mayweather could have a similarly tough (or even tougher) fight ahead of him in the rematch.
• Low-volume puncher who can get out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. This was the case in his fight last year vs. Robert Guerrero, in which he arguably lost the first two rounds and was certainly the case in his first fight vs. Maidana where Mayweather appeared to lose many of the early rounds. Per CompuBox stats, Maidana outlanded Mayweather in 5 out of the first 6 rounds of the first fight.
• While Mayweather rarely gets hit cleanly, he has in the past shown susceptibility to power punches when they land. Whereas Canelo Alvarez was more low-volume, Maidana is a very high-volume power puncher which makes it possible he'll give Mayweather trouble at some point during the fight if he can get some of his punches to land. In the first fight vs. Mayweather, Maidana landed 34% of his power punches - well above the 22% of power punches landed by previous Mayweather opponents throughout the course of his career. If an excellent KO puncher like Maidana can get the right punch to land, this is certainly a fight he could win by TKO/KO.

Positives for Maidana

• Excellent power puncher with legitimate KO power in both hands. (31 of his 35 wins have come by KO.) One of the best KO boxers in the sport. Is capable of defeating Mayweather by TKO/KO if he can land some power punches. Maidana is currently in the prime of his career, while Mayweather is a few years past his prime. 
• In his first fight vs. Mayweather, Maidana surprised the boxing world by giving Floyd his toughest fight since his first fight with Jose Luis Castillo over a decade ago. In the first fight, Maidana threw more than twice as many punches as Mayweather and landed more punches than any previous CompuBox-tracked Mayweather opponent. Some felt Maidana actually won the first fight vs. Mayweather; one of the three judges scored the fight a draw.
• Very aggressive, high-volume puncher who is adept at cutting off the ring and applying pressure. Maidana's best punches are his right uppercut, left hook, and overhand right. Punches from awkward angles which makes it very difficult to anticipate his punches. In his first fight vs. Mayweather, Maidana was surprisingly effective with his overhand right punch and at backing Floyd into ring corners. 
• Highly confident boxer coming off of a competitive fight with the current #1 pound-for-pound boxer. Genuinely feels he could win the rematch vs. Mayweather with a few adjustments. Prior to the first fight vs. Mayweather, earned the best win of his career in defeating previously undefeated Adrien Broner for the WBA World welterweight title, a fight in which he knocked Adrien Broner down twice. (Broner had previously never been knocked down in his career.)
• Trainer is Robert Garcia, who is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  
• Maidana appears to have significantly improved his technical boxing skills - in particular his jab and body attack - under Garcia, who has trained him for his last five fights. (Maidana is 4-1 under Robert Garcia with the lone loss coming in the previous fight vs. Mayweather.) Maidana's defense has also improved a bit under Garcia.   
• Has reportedly improved his fitness for the upcoming rematch. Maidana tired in the 2nd half of the first Mayweather fight so improved endurance may result in better success in the 2nd half of the rematch compared to the first fight.
• Solid chin. Has been knocked down a few times in his career but has never been stopped. Has shown a tendency to fight well after being knocked down or facing pressure. Was never seriously hurt in the first fight vs. Mayweather so may be willing to take more chances in rematch if he doesn't feel Mayweather has the power to hurt him. 
• Gritty boxer who fights with a lot of heart/determination. Has proven he's not intimidated by Mayweather's skill or dominance of the sport over the past 17+ years.
• Given his success in the first fight, the crowd at the MGM Grand Garden arena will almost certainly be pro-Maidana, especially if he can repeat the success he had in the first few rounds of the previous fight in the rematch.

Negatives for Maidana

• Maidana is a very solid, but far from elite boxer fighting an opponent in Mayweather who is universally considered the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport today. Despite his relative success in the first fight, Maidana is still at a clear disadvantage vs. Mayweather in terms of talent, skill, and speed. After struggling a bit early, Mayweather made adjustments and dominated the 2nd half of the first fight. Rematches tend to favor the technically superior boxer and Mayweather is one of the best technicians in the history of the sport; now that Mayweather has a better idea of what to expect from Maidana there is a good chance he'll be able to make any necessary adjustments early and win the rematch by an even wider margin than the first fight. 
• Maidana has had trouble in the past with fighters who move well on their feet (see Maidana's fight vs. Devon Alexander, in which he lost 10 out of 10 rounds on 2 out of 3 judges' scorecards). Mayweather moves as well on his feet as anyone in the sport (or anyone in the sport's history for that matter). Although he throws more punches, Maidana is slower on foot than even the flat-footed Canelo Alvarez, who was unable to catch up to Mayweather in Mayweather's last fight. If Mayweather does a better job of keeping the fight in the center of the ring than he did in the first fight (and as Devon Alexander did in his domination of Maidana), he'll likely be able to control the fight with his movement and win a wide decision.
• Although one of the deadliest fighters in the sport pound-for-pound, Maidana is largely a one-dimensional boxer who is very predictable in his approach. (Come-forward, straight line puncher.) Maidana throws many of his punches from awkward, unpredictable angles, but he often telegraphs his punches with his wind-up movement and generally has to be stationary to set up one of his power punches. Mayweather struggled a bit in the early rounds with Maidana's awkward style but after figuring out Maidana's approach, rendered him largely ineffective through much of the 2nd half of the fight. If Mayweather does have Maidana figured out, there is a good chance the rematch will largely replicate the 2nd half of the first fight.
• In his first fight vs. Mayweather, Maidana weighed in at 165 pounds the day of the fight, 17 pounds heavier than Mayweather (148 pounds). For the purposes of improved stamina for the later rounds, it's been reported Maidana may come in at a lighter weight for the rematch. This may result in improved endurance, but will Maidana be able to impose his physicality and back Mayweather into corners (where much of his success came in the first fight) at a lighter weight? 
• Although he has improved somewhat, Maidana is a poor fighter defensively. Maidana's aggressiveness often leaves his head and body exposed to counter punches. (The three times Maidana has been knocked down has been the result of body shots.) Maidana's defense is particularly weak on the inside, as was shown in the Devon Alexander fight. Although never seriously hurt in the first Mayweather fight, per CompuBox stats, Mayweather did land 65% of his power punches - and 54% of his punches overall - vs. Maidana, both exceptionally high percentages.   
• Maidana's often throws wild punches. which sometimes leaves him out of position and open to the type of counterpunching Floyd excels at. As noted above, Floyd landed punches at an exceptionally high rate in the first fight. 

Prefight Summary

Despite Mayweather's clear technical skill, talent, and speed advantages, Maidana fought a surprisingly competitive fight vs. Mayweather in their first fight last May. Maidana used his 17 pound weight advantage, power, and awkward ultra aggressive style to effectively pressure Mayweather against the ropes in what was one of the toughest fights of Mayweather's career. Mayweather, who has shown an uncanny ability to fight well against the ropes throughout much of his career (including relatively recent fights vs. Canelo Alvarez, Robert Guerrero, and Victor Ortiz) looked unusually uncomfortable, having trouble with Maidana's power and physicality during much of the first half of the fight.

By the middle of the fight, however, the technically superior Mayweather made the adjustments necessary to to control the 2nd half of the fight - taking the fight from the ropes to the center of the ring, managing distance, and landing punches at an exceptionally high percentage. As in some of his previous losses, Maidana couldn't effectively sustain the high work rate achieved during the first half of the fight, getting outboxed in the second half of the fight after tiring in the later rounds.

As far as Maidana is concerned, something's got to give in the rematch. Reportedly Maidana, who weighed 17 pounds more than Mayweather in the first fight, will attempt to come in at a lighter weight for the rematch in the hopes of improving his stamina for the later rounds. But if Maidana comes in at a lighter weight, will he be still be able to be as physical and force Mayweather to fight from the corner as he did for much of the first fight? This strategy will likely be tougher to execute at a lighter weight, especially when you consider that the new referee for the rematch (Kenny Bayless) will probably focus on cleaning up much of the dirty infighting that occurred in the first fight. (In the first fight both fighters were guilty of overly physical tactics to an extent, though it seemed the sometimes dirty nature of the fight seemed to work in Maidana's favor.)

If, on the other hand, Maidana comes in at a similar weight and tries to fight the same fight I'd expect Mayweather to be better prepared for Maidana's style from his experience in the first fight and impose his technical skill and speed advantages earlier in the fight en route to an easier victory.

I see this rematch starting more as round 13 of the first fight than round 1 of a second fight. At the end of the day Maidana is largely a 1-dimensional fighter (albeit very effective 1-dimensional fighter); Mayweather had trouble with Maidana's style early in the first fight but he has enough experience and data on him now where I expect the adjustments Mayweather made in the second half of the last fight to carry over to the early rounds of the rematch. Over 90% of Maidana's wins have come by TKO/KO so Maidana always has a puncher's chance - especially if he can replicate the success he had in the first fight backing Mayweather into a corner. But I see this as a fight where Mayweather better knows what to expect out of Maidana from the first fight. With Mayweather likely making necessary adjustments earlier in the fight and the change in referee likely resulting in a "cleaner" fight than the first fight I expect Mayweather to win by a comfortable unanimous decision this time around.

Prediction: Mayweather by decision