Canelo vs. Angulo: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (42-1-1, 30 KOs) vs. Alfredo "El Perro" Angulo (22-3, 18 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: March 8, 2014
Weight class: Light Middleweight (154 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Alvarez -600, Angulo +500 (5 Dimes, 3/8/14)
Purse: Alvarez: $1,250,000, Angulo: $750,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez - #9 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked light middleweight),
Angulo - Not ranked
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Angulo: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Positives for Canelo

• At only 23 years old, is Ring Magazine #9 ranked  pound-for-pound boxer (#1 ranked light heavyweight). Canelo is one of the best boxer-punchers in the sport; technically savvy boxer with excellent punching power in both hands. 
• Patient, but very accurate puncher who throws combinations very well. Best punches are left hook and lead right hand. Also a solid body puncher who knows how to attack the body.
• Extremely efficient puncher. Per CompuBox stats, lands 50% of power punches thrown (#1 amongst all tracked fighters) and 39% of overall punches thrown (#3 amongst all tracked fighters behind Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.).
• Poised fighter who is very mature for his age. Is still improving despite already being one of the top boxers in the sport.
• Only loss of career was to undefeated and current #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the world Floyd Mayweather. Canelo has beaten solid fighters such as current IBF lightweight champion Miguel Vazquez (twice), Austin Trout, future hall-of-famer Shane Mosely, and Kermit Cintron. 
• Appears to have a solid chin; has never been knocked down in his career despite having fought larger fighters than Angulo.
• Has defensive flaws but Canelo's defense (in particular his head movement) has noticeably improved over his last few fights.
• Athletic boxer who will have hand speed and overall boxing skill advantage vs. Angulo. Has problems fighting boxers with good movement (like Floyd Mayweather), but this won't be an issue vs. Angulo, who will aim to put pressure on Canelo so will always be right in front of him.
• Canelo is an extremely popular fighter amongst Mexicans and Mexican-Americans; the overwhelming majority of fans in the MGM Grand Arena will be pro-Canelo.

Negatives for Canelo

• Though efficient, Canelo is relatively low-volume puncher who often has stretches of inactivity during fights (i.e., sometimes takes significant portions of rounds off). Due to low volume is prone to getting outworked. 
• Has shown stamina issues in previous fights. Canelo's normal walk-around weight is 20+ lbs more than his fighting weight of 154 lbs; draining 20+ pounds to make weight prior to fights appears to affect his stamina during fights, as evidenced by his inactivity during certain portions of fights. 
• How good is Canelo's chin really? Canelo has never been knocked down in his career, but - while he's fought boxers with better boxing skills - he's never fought a high-pressure fighter who hits as hard and as often as Angulo. Canelo's chin and stamina will be tested like never before in this fight.
• His defense has improved over his last few fights but Canelo is by no means a defensive wizard. Canelo is slow-footed and often leaves himself open to clean counters after throwing punches. There will likely be portions of the fight where Angulo will have success landing punches.  
• Slow-starter who has at times given away the first one or two rounds of fights while adjusting to his opponent.

Positives for Angulo

• One of the best high-pressure, high-volume fighters in the sport. Very aggressive boxer who is adept at cutting off the ring and wearing his opponents down on the inside over the course of the fight. Has had success applying pressure against technically skilled fighters with good movement (e.g., Erislandy Lara) so should have at least some success applying pressure to the more slow-footed Canelo.
• Punches as hard as anyone Canelo has ever fought. 72% KO percentage and has knocked down the likes of defensive technician Erislandy Lara (twice; first two knockdowns of Lara's career) and James Kirkland. Has a knack for jumping on this opponents early (see the Lara and Kirkland fights) which may serve him well vs. a slow-starting fighter like Canelo.
• Possesses excellent stamina. Never gets tired and seems as adept at cutting off the ring and throwing a high volume of punches in later rounds as he is in early rounds.
• Has great determination and a very good chin. Good at continuing to apply pressure and throwing hard punches even as he is getting hit.
• Has only fought 25 professional fights but has fought very competitively vs. a wide array of fighting styles; should be ready for anything Canelo throws at him. 
• Has a very good trainer in Virgil Hunter, who also trains #2 pound-for-pound boxer Andre Ward, Amir Khan, and Andre Berto. Sparring vs. other top-level boxers should serve well in preparing for Canelo.

Negatives for Angulo

• Angulo is a B-level boxer who has never beaten a fighter of Canelo's caliber. (Angulo's best wins were against an then-undefeated Harry Joe Yorgey and Gabriel Rosado, both relatively unknown fighters to mainstream boxing fans.) Angulo lost by TKO to his two most notable opponents, Erislandy Lara and James Kirkland.
• Angulo is a very good pressure fighter but will be outclassed by Canelo in terms of overall boxing skill and hand speed. Canelo's punches will likely land before Angulo's, which may compromise Angulo's high-pressure strategy. 
• Suffered severe swelling and an orbital fracture injury to his left eye in his last fight, a TKO loss vs. Erislandy Lara. There is a good chance the eye could swell again in later rounds vs. Canelo, one of the hardest and most accurate punchers in the sport. (Could see a repeat of Cotto-Margarito II, where Margarito lost by TKO vs. Cotto due swelling of his right eye, to which suffered an orbital fracture in his previous fight vs. Manny Pacquiao.) 
• Poor defensive fighter. Per CompuBox stats, Angulo's opponents land 42% of their power punches, 3rd worst amongst tracked fighters. Angulo's highly aggressive style will very frequently leave him open to counter punching. Angulo is the type of fighter who will stay in front of his opponent and allow himself to get hit so that he can continue to apply pressure and hopefully wear his opponent down in later rounds. But will he be able to withstand the accurate, hard-punching (albeit low-volume) attack Canelo will provide over 12 rounds? 

Prefight Summary

Canelo is a young, but very poised and experienced fighter who has shown improvement (particularly with his defense) with each fight. In terms of boxing skill, this fight is a mismatch. Canelo is rated one of the best boxers pound-for-pound in the sport, and is a skilled, efficient power puncher fighting a B-level boxer who statistically is one of the worst television fighters in the sport in terms of allowing his opponents to land power punches. At the end of the day, Angulo is a mediocre talent in his early 30s who has never beaten a boxer of Canelo's caliber. Canelo has had problems in the past vs. boxers who move around the ring well so it seems Angulo, a highly aggressive fighter who will stand in front of Canelo the entire fight and is willing to trade punches, is a great matchup for him.

With this said, it would be foolish to overlook Angulo's chances to win the fight. Angulo is a determined pressure fighter who packs a powerful punch and generally doesn't tire, even well into the later rounds. In his last fight, Angulo fought a highly competitive fight vs. Erislandy Lara (a fighter many consider to be better than Canelo) and was arguably winning the fight prior to the stoppage due to the swelling in Angulo's left eye. In that fight, Angulo was able to successfully pressure Lara, an elite technician with good footwork, so I'd anticipate he'll have at least some success applying pressure to the slower-footed, arguably less savvy Canelo. Canelo is an experienced fighter, but has never fought a boxer who applies as much pressure and packs as much of a punch as Angulo. There is a chance here  that Angulo outworks the relatively low-volume, stamina-deficient Canelo and steals a victory by decision or KO. (Though a decision vs. the highly popular Canelo in Vegas strikes me as nearly impossible unless Angulo very decisively outboxes Alvarez.)

However, I think Angulo's defensive flaws and hand speed disadvantages will be his downfall. In terms of accuracy and power, Canelo is the best puncher Angulo has ever fought (Kirkland was perhaps more powerful but not as accurate); especially with the severe eye injury in his last fight, I doubt Angulo will be able to withstand Canelo's effective power punching for 12 full rounds without getting stopped. The question will be whether or not Angulo can get inside on Canelo and stop him first; I think Canelo's hand speed advantage and savvy will largely mitigate Angulo's attack en route to a  TKO/KO victory (or wide unanimous decision if Canelo can't get the KO).

My primary bet will be Canelo by TKO/KO but think there is value in hedging with a small amount on Angulo by TKO/KO or Angulo to win.

Prediction: Canelo by TKO/KO 

Pascal vs. Bute: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Jean Pascal (28-2-1, 17 KOs) vs. Lucian Bute (31-1, 24 KOs)
Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Date: January 18, 2014
Weight class: Light Heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: NABF Light Heavyweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Pascal -165, Bute +155 (5 Dimes, 1/18/14)
Purse: Pascal: $2 million, Bute: $2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pascal - #10 ranked light heavyweight, Bute - #3 ranked super middleweight
Style: Pascal: Orthodox, Bute: Southpaw

Positives for Pascal

• Ring Magazine #10 light heavyweight. One of the hardest punchers pound-for-pound in the sport. Tremendous KO power in both hands. Pascal's power is somewhat underrated due to relatively low KO % (55%). 
• Athletic, explosive boxer who prefers to box from the outside and wait for opportunities to jump in and pressure opponents ambush-style. The awkward angles Pascal throws punches from are often difficult to defend against.
• Has natural quickness; has had hand and foot speed advantage vs. nearly every fighter he has fought and will have these advantages vs. Bute.
• Experienced boxer who has fought many of the elite fighters in his weight class, including Bernard Hopkins (twice), Chad Dawson, and Carl Froch. Pascal beat Dawson who, like Bute, is a slick southpaw technician, by technical decision in 2010. 
• Pascal has only lost twice in his career; both times to a current major title holder and future hall-of-famer (Carl Froch in 2008 and Bernard Hopkins in 2011). 
• Solid chin; has never been knocked down or in danger of getting stopped in his career.
• Fast starter who generally gets out to early leads in fights.  

Negatives for Pascal

• Injury prone boxer who has suffered multiple serious shoulder injuries during fights (in some cases requiring his corner to pop his shoulder back in so he could continue). The injuries may persist and get worse as he gets older, possibly affecting the outcome of this fight. 
• Due to his injuries, Pascal has been relatively inactive. Only fought once in 2013 and twice in the past 31 months. 
• Has a strong chin, but defensive skills are subpar. Often fights flat-footed with his hands down, which at times allows his opponents to land effective counterpunches.
• Questionable stamina; often starts fast but has a tendency to tire and slow down by the middle of the fight (see both fights vs. Hopkins).
• Relatively low-volume puncher; has a tendency to have stretches of inactivity during fights (particularly in the middle and later rounds when he tires).

Positives for Bute

• Ring Magazine #3 super middleweight. Solid technical boxer with great punching power. Has better technical boxing skills than Jean Pascal. 
• Has long been considered one of the top super middleweights in the world. Only loss was to future hall-of-famer and current WBA and IBF super middleweight champion Carl Froch in Froch's hometown of Nottingham, England. Bute has never lost a pro fight in Canada.
• Well-rounded fighter with good hand speed. Strengths are his left uppercut and body punching. 
• Has decisively beaten other solid fighters such as Glen Johnson, Edison Miranda, and Librado Andrade.
• Unlike Pascal, Bute has solid stamina; his punching power tends to last though later rounds. 

Negatives for Bute

• Highly possible Bute's confidence is shaken since his 5th round TKO loss vs. Froch in 2012. Bute looked unimpressive in his last fight vs. Denis Grachev (won close decision vs. Grachev, who was fighting in only his 14th pro fight).
• Has been inactive due to an injury to his left hand; Bute didn't fight in 2013 and has only fought once since his TKO loss to Froch in May, 2012.
• Bute has mediocre defensive skills and a shaky chin. Like Pascal fights with his hands down at times, leaving him open to counterpunches.  Bute has been knocked down in previous fights (most notably in his loss to Carl Froch) and in this fight will be fighting a boxer with even greater punching power than Froch. 
• Bute is relatively inexperienced at light heavyweight; this fight vs. Pascal (who has fought his last 8 fights at light heavyweight) will be only the second fight he's fought at this weight.. 
• Other than Froch, Bute has not fought the level of talent Pascal has. Bute has never beaten a fighter of Pascal's caliber and will be fighting the strongest puncher he's ever fought on a questionable chin after the TKO loss to Froch and the unimpressive, close victory over Denis Grachev in his most recent fights. 

Prefight Summary

Lucian Bute has long been one of the top super middleweights in the world but is now fighting in only his second fight at light heavyweight vs. Jean Pascal, a true light heavyweight with true light heavyweight punching power and solid boxing skills. Although Bute has long been considered a top-level boxer, he has been relatively untested in his career with his best wins coming vs. the likes of low B-level fighters such as Glen Johnson and Librado Andrade. The one time Bute fought an opponent of Pascal's caliber in terms of punching power and skill (vs. Carl Froch in 2012) he suffered a devastating, early round TKO which appears to have stymied his career and shaken his confidence.

Pascal is not the top-level, possible future hall-of-fame boxer Froch is but Pascal is very experienced at light heavyweight and fought competitively vs. opponents much tougher than Bute. In 2010, Pascal decisively beat an undefeated, top 10 pound-for-pound boxer in Chad Dawson (who, like Bute, is a slick southpaw with solid technical skills) and in more recent years was in two close, competitive fights with Bernard Hopkins, one of the most skilled technicians in the history of the sport (in 2011 earned a draw vs. Hopkins after scoring two knockdowns and being way ahead early in the fight and in 2012 suffered a close unanimous decision loss).

Both Hopkins and Dawson have strong defensive skills, so for the most part were able to stay out of danger  vs. Pascal. Bute does not have the defensive skill nor the foot speed to elude Pascal's ambush style and tremendous punching power for the entire fight. I anticipate Pascal will be able to close in on Bute some time in one of the early rounds and use his quickness and power advantage to overwhelm him en route to an early or mid-round TKO/KO or comfortable decision if he is unable to get the KO.

My two main concerns with this prediction are 1) Pascal's stamina issues and 2) Pascal's history of shoulder troubles. If Pascal gets tired in the middle rounds or if one of his old shoulder injuries recur, I would not be surprised if Bute, who has the superior technical boxing skills and has good punching power in his own right, gains confidence and outboxes Pascal in the later rounds of the fight to eke out a close decision.

But on the whole I don't see Bute's mediocre defense and shaky chin being able to withstand Pascal's speed and power advantages. Bute will try to keep his distance and outbox Pascal from the outside but I expect Pascal to close and catch up to him eventually for the stoppage.

Prediction: Pascal by TKO/KO 

Broner vs. Maidana: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Adrien Broner (27-0-0, 22 KOs) vs. Marcos Maidana (34-3-0, 31 KOs)
Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
Date: December 14, 2013
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA World Welterweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Broner -440, Maidana +350 (5 Dimes, 12/14/13)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Adrien Broner - #9 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked lightweight, #6 ranked welterweight), Maidana - unranked
Style: Broner: Orthodox, Maidana: Orthodox

Positives for Broner

• Ring Magazine #9 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport. Undefeated fighter with excellent agility, hand speed, and foot speed. Highly talented boxer who, at 24 years old, is already a 3-division world champion. Currently in the prime of his career.
• Slick, versatile technician who is adept at both counter punching and being aggressive, cutting off the ring vs. his opponents. 
• Low-volume at times but very efficient, accurate puncher with good KO power in both hands. (22 of his 27 wins have come by KO.)
• One of the best defensive fighters in boxing. Adept with both the shoulder roll and high guard defense. Almost Floyd Mayweather-like in his ability to stay in the pocket and use his defensive skills to make his opponents miss. Slips and rolls punches very well. Difficult fighter to hit cleanly.  
• High IQ boxer who is good at making technical adjustments in the ring over the course of the fight.
• Excellent at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Throws very accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body. 

Negatives for Broner

• Relatively untested. Paulie Malignaggi and Daniel Ponce de Leon have been his only tough opponents to date. 
• Low-volume puncher who is prone to getting out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. (This was the case in his last two fights vs. Malignaggi and Gavin Rees, who both won the first two rounds of their fights vs. Broner.)
• While Broner has good foot speed, his wide-legged stance tends to leave him flat-footed in the ring. Broner's lack of mobility makes it easier for his opponents to land scoring punches against him, even if the punches aren't landing cleanly. 
• Fighting at welterweight for only the 2nd time in his career after moving up two weight classes. Broner's 1st welterweight fight (vs. Paulie Malignaggi last June) seemed to indicate the KO power he had at lightweight may not fully carry over to the welterweight division. 

Positives for Maidana

• Excellent power puncher puncher with KO power in both hands. (31 of his 34 wins have come by KO.) One of the best KO boxers in the sport. 
• Very aggressive, high-volume puncher who is adept at cutting off the ring and applying pressure. Maidana's best punches are his right uppercut and left hook.
• Trainer is Robert Garcia, who is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia is the reigning BWAA Trainer of the Year and has been voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for the past two years.  
• Maidana appears to have significantly improved his technical boxing skills - in particular his jab and body attack - under Garcia, who has trained him for his last three fights. Maidana's defense has also improved a bit under Garcia.   
• Solid chin. Has been knocked down a few times in his career but has never been stopped. Has shown a tendency to fight well after being knocked down or facing pressure. 
• Gritty boxer who fights with a lot of heart/determination. 

Negatives for Maidana

• Maidana is a very solid, but far from elite boxer fighting the #9 pound-for-pound fighter in boxing today; is at a clear disadvantage in terms of talent, skill, and speed. Although he eventually got the KO, Maidana was involved in very close fights with B-level fighters such as Josesito Lopez and Jesus Soto Karass so tough to see how he will defeat an A-level fighter such as Broner. Maidana has also never held a major world title. 
• Although he has improved somewhat, Maidana is a poor fighter defensively. Maidana's aggressiveness often leaves his head and body exposed to counter punches. (The three times Maidana has been knocked down has been the result of body shots.) Maidana's defense is particularly weak on the inside, as was shown in the Devon Alexander fight. 
• Maidana's often throws wild punches. which sometimes leaves him out of position and open to counter punches.  
• Maidana is largely a one-dimensional boxer who is very predictable in his approach. (Come-forward, straight line puncher.)

Prefight Summary

I anticipate this actually being an easy fight for Broner, due to his defensive prowess and the significant skill, talent, and speed advantages he has over Maidana. Broner may take the first couple of rounds to adjust to Maidana's high-volume aggressiveness, but I expect him to figure Maidana out and dominate the fight after that. With his underrated power, Broner even has a decent chance to win this fight by TKO/KO, but I think Maidana's grit and chin will prevent that. (Maidana has never come close to being stopped in his career.) I also question whether the power Broner showed at lightweight (135 lbs.) fully stayed with him after he moved up two weight classes to welterweight (147 lbs); he didn't come close to knocking Paulie Malignaggi out in his first fight at welterweight (though Paulie has good defensive skills and is a much more elusive fighter than Maidana).

After the first few rounds, I expect Broner to dominate the fight and land more or less at will, taking advantage of Maidana's poor defense, high volume over-aggressiveness, and wild punch-throwing tendencies to counter punch effectively. Maidana has shown good improvement in his technical boxing skills in his last few fights under trainer Robert Garcia, but Maidana is still below average defensively and nowhere near the point of being able to outbox an elite fighter such as Broner.

The thing that worries me about my prediction is that Maidana does have great power in both hands, while Broner has shown a tendency in the past to be flat-footed and not move around as much in the ring as he should. Broner's lack of mobility should provide Maidana opportunities to land the KO shot he will probably have to land to win this fight. But given Maidana's power, I expect Broner to move a bit more than he has in previous fights (where he hasn't necessarily needed to be mobile to win) to elude Maidana's power and pressure. Even if Broner stays in the pocket more than expected, his defensive prowess should allow him to roll and slip the majority of Maidana's power punches. Broner's counter punching skill and ability to fight inside and attack the body should limit Maidana's ability to pressure Broner as the fight progresses.

The bottom line on this fight is Broner is a defensively gifted, A-level boxer fighting a B-level boxer (albeit with A-level punching power) with poor defensive skills. This should become an increasingly easy fight for Broner as the fight progresses and, with the way Maidana leaves himself open to counter punching (in particular to the body), wouldn't be at all surprised if Broner gets the TKO/KO. But I expect Maidana's chin and heart to help him survive the fight, leaving Broner to settle for a comfortable unanimous decision. 

Prediction: Broner by decision 

Ward vs. Rodriguez: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Andre Ward (26-0-0, 14 KOs) vs. Edwin Rodriguez (24-0-0, 16 KOs)
Location: Citizens Business Bank Arena, Ontario, California
Date: November 16, 2013
Weight class: Super Middleweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None (WBA (Super) World Super Middleweight and Ring Magazine Super Middleweight championships were on line but Rodriguez did not make weight)
TV: HBO
Line: Ward -2000, Rodriguez +1250 (5 Dimes, 11/16/13)
Purse: Ward: $1.9 million, Rodriguez: $1 million (Note: Rodriguez was fined $200,000 from $1 million purse for not making weight, $100,000 of which went to Ward)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Ward - #2 ranked pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine super middleweight champion), Rodriguez - #7 ranked super middleweight
Style: Ward: Orthodox, Rodriguez: Orthodox

Positives for Ward

• #2 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport today. Undefeated master technician who hasn't lost as a pro or as an amateur since he was 12 years old. Has great all-around skills and has no true weaknesses. 1996 Olympic gold medalist and future Hall-of-Famer.
• Hasn't truly been tested in his career, this despite having fought arguably the toughest schedule of any boxer over the past few years - which includes Showtime's Super Six World Boxing Classic tournament (where Ward was undefeated).
• Very versatile, crafty boxer who fights superbly both inside and outside. Physical fighter who is very skilled at smothering opponents wearing them down on the inside. Can box and brawl very well.
• Has great instincts and is excellent at adjusting to his opponents during the fight. Along with Floyd Mayweather and Bernard Hopkins is one of the master technicians in the sport today.
• Smart defensively, particularly on the inside. 
• Highly accurate puncher who throws well-timed jabs and is good at attacking the body on the inside. 
• Extremely intelligent, high-IQ boxer who is highly focused. Very humble fighter who does not take any opponent lightly. 
• Reliable chin. Has only been knocked down once in his career.

Negatives for Ward

• Hasn't fought in over 14 months due to surgery for a serious right shoulder injury. Will the inactivity/surgery affect his return?
• Is sometimes passive in early rounds while figuring out his opponent.
• Not exceptionally powerful; doesn't have one punch KO power. This could give Rodriguez a full 12 rounds to land something surprising to upset Ward.
• How good is Ward's chin really? He's been knocked down before and there have been spots in previous fights where he's been shook up by lesser opponents. 

Positives for Rodriguez

• Undefeated, solid, aggressive volume puncher with good power in both hands. Very hungry, determined fighter who will make every effort to pull off the upset vs. Ward. 
• Naturally gifted fighter with very good athletic ability.
• Tall fighter with good reach. Uses his length well vs. most opponents to establish his jab. Will have a 5" reach advantage vs. Ward. 
• Throws punches from awkward angles, making him unpredictable. Rodriguez's unpredictability could make it harder for Ward to avoid Rodriguez's punches in spots and time his own counter punches. 
• Rodriguez's defense has gotten better over the past few fights. He has good head movement and uses the shoulder roll well to minimize the impact of punches. 

Negatives for Rodriguez

• Fighting the #2 pound-for-pound fighter in boxing today; likely going into the fight out-classed in terms of skill, talent, and boxing IQ.
• Lack of experience at the top level; Rodriguez hasn't fought the same level of opponents Ward has. This will be Rodriguez's first fight vs. an elite boxer.
• Rodriguez likely physically drained from trying to make weight (which he failed to do), which may increase the likelihood he shows fatigue or even gets knocked out during the fight.
• Has improved defensively but aggressive, wild punching style often leaves him susceptible to counter punches.

Prefight Summary

Barring lingering after-effects from his 14 months of inactivity or recent shoulder injury, this should be a very easy fight for Ward. Ward is a future all-time great, Hall-of-Fame boxer who is clearly superior to Rodriguez in terms of natural talent, technical skills, and boxing IQ. Ward should be able effectively counter Rodriguez's highly aggressive style with accurate punches in the early rounds and eventually work his way inside, wearing Rodriguez down with punishing body shots. Rodriguez is hungry and undefeated, but he is not skilled enough to outbox an elite talent like Ward over 12 rounds.

Given Ward's lack of KO power and the fact that Rodriguez is a fairly big, athletic guy who's never been down in his career, I think the most likely outcome for the fight is Ward by a wide, unanimous decision. However, Ward is very good at wearing his opponents down on the inside with body punches and, given that Rodriguez may be coming into the fight physically drained from trying (and failing) to make weight, there is a good possibility Ward gets the stoppage inside 12 rounds.

Rodriguez has good power in both hands and Ward has been knocked down before so Rodriguez does have a puncher's chance if he can land a lucky punch or two (especially given his unorthodox, unpredictable punching style). There's also the possibility Ward is still rusty from 14 months of inactivity or that his shoulder (which had been a problem for him since he was an amateur) gives him problems during the fight that Rodriguez can exploit. But even if there's some adversity, Ward's experience and savvy alone should guide him to a fairly easy victory, whether that be by wide unanimous decision or by TKO/KO.

Prediction: Ward by decision 

Garcia vs. Martinez: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Mikey Garcia (32-0-0, 27 KOs) vs. Roman Martinez (27-1-2, 16 KOs)
Location: American Bank Center, Corpus Christi, Texas
Date: November 9, 2013
Weight class: Super Featherweight (130 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Super Featherweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Garcia -1500, Martinez +1000 (5 Dimes, 11/9/13)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia - Ring Magazine featherweight champion, Martinez - #3 ranked junior lightweight
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Martinez: Orthodox

Positives for Garcia

• Very good/great boxing technician with excellent punching power. Has one punch KO power but can also wear you down through the fight with powerful, accurate punches. 27 of Garcia's 32 victories (84%) have been by TKO or KO. If not the hardest, one of the hardest punchers in boxing pound-for-pound.
• Despite excellent punching power, is an extremely patient fighter who prefers to box and wait for opportunities to counter rather than brawl. A boxer-puncher with great technical skills and outstanding punching power so is capable of beating opponents by boxing or brawling.  
• Very intelligent, high-IQ boxer. College graduate who is very mature for his age and is interested in becoming a police officer after his boxing career. 
• Young (only 25 years old), but has good pedigree and decent experience. Comes from a well-known boxing family with a father and two brothers who are trainers and a brother (his current trainer, Robert Garcia) who was former IBF Super Featherweight champion of the world. Robert Garcia is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing, as he's the reigning BWAA Trainer of the Year and has been voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for the past two years.  
• Had a very strong amateur career. Won gold at the 2004 National Junior Golden Gloves championships and has beaten the likes of current undefeated lightweight champion Danny Garcia during amateurs.
• Is now working with strength and conditioning coach Alex Ariza, who's worked extensively with Manny Pacquiao in the past. 

Negatives for Garcia

• Sometimes starts slow in fights while figuring his opponents out.
• Garcia is a relatively untested fighter. Most talented fighter on Garcia's resume is Juan Manuel Lopez, who lost his last 3 title fights (including his most recent fight vs. Garcia) by TKO due to a weak chin. The only other notable fighter on Garcia's resume is Orlando Salido, the current WBO featherweight champion but has 12 losses to his credit. Garcia does not have a lot of experience vs. solid fighters.
• This is Garcia's first fight at super featherweight (130). 
• Due to patience, is not a particularly high-volume fighter, which could work against him vs. an aggressive, high-volume boxer like Martinez.

Positives for Martinez

• Hyper-aggressive, come-forward boxer with very high punch volume. Is 3-0-1 in last 4 title fights primarily on his ability to outwork his opponents. 
• Has an excellent chin. Has never been knocked down or stopped by TKO in his career.
• Has excellent stamina and conditioning. Despite his high pressure style, Martinez rarely tires during the later rounds of fights
• Good pressure fighter who prefers to brawl, but at times has shown ability to box effectively.
• Mentally tough boxer. Displays great heart and determination during all of his fights. High-effort fighter.
• Doesn't have great KO power but has good, solid punching power to keep his opponents honest.
• Older and more experienced fighter than Garcia. Is the current and defending WBO Super Featherweight world champion. Won the WBO Super Featherweight championship previously in 2009 before losing the title and regaining it last year vs. Miguel Beltran.

Negatives for Martinez

• Martinez's defense is very suspect. His aggressive style often leaves him very exposed to counters, which could be disastrous vs. a power puncher like Garcia.
• Despite being a two-time super featherweight champion of the world, his skills are best classified as "2nd-tier," a full level below Garcia's. Garcia clearly has the superior talent, skills, and power in this matchup.
• Often is a slow starter in fights, which he likely can't afford to do vs. Garcia. 
• Martinez's last three fights have been close, split decisions vs. opponents nowhere near the talent or skill of Garcia.

Prefight Summary

The bottom line here is this is a fight between an A-level boxer who may be well on his way to becoming one of the elite boxers in the sport for years to come vs. a B-level boxer who, despite having tremendous heart and determination, is not nearly as skilled or talented.

Martinez fights a highly aggressive style with high punch output - a style which has earned him two super featherweight titles against opponents who were sometimes more skilled or talented than he was. But Martinez has not fought anyone even approaching the level of skill or talent of Garcia. Martinez's style may give him success at times in early rounds (as Garcia is sometimes a slow starter), but Garcia will eventually figure out angles from which to counter with his powerful punches. Martinez has subpar defensive skills, so I'd expect Garcia to gradually overwhelm him with power shots. Martinez has a great chin and has never been knocked down in his career, but he has never fought a fighter with the power of Mikey Garcia. Martinez often doesn't mind taking punches to throw more punches but that will likely be his downfall vs. a puncher with Garcia's power.

In recent fights, Martinez has been able to obtain close, split decisions (in fights he otherwise likely would've lost by a wide margin), with aggression and high punch output. (In each of his last three fights one of the judges scored the fight against him by a wide margin, but Martinez was still able to pull out a win or split-decision draw.) There is a possibility Martinez could outwork Garcia (a very patient boxer who doesn't throw at a high volume), but Garcia is too accurate, skilled, and powerful of a puncher for Martinez to get a decision against, if the fight goes 12 rounds.

Martinez will give a great effort and show the same tremendous heart and determination he shows in all his fights but again, in a fight between an A-level fighter and a B-level fighter, the A-level fighter with the superior power, skills, boxing IQ, and talent will win nearly every time. Martinez doesn't have the defensive ability or boxing skills to avoid Garcia's counter punches and overwhelming power for 12 rounds.

Prediction: Garcia by TKO/KO 

Hopkins vs. Murat: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Bernard Hopkins (53-6-2-2, 32 KOs) vs. Karo Murat (25-1-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey
Date: October 26, 2013
Weight class: Light Heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF Light Heavyweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Hopkins -840, Murat +660 (5 Dimes, 10/26/13)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Hopkins #2 ranked light heavyweight, Murat #6 ranked light heavyweight
Style: Hopkins: Orthodox, Murat: Orthodox

Positives for Hopkins

• One of the great middleweight boxers of all time. Still a master class technician at age 48. Future first ballot hall-of-famer.
• Tough, savvy boxer with an extremely high boxing IQ. Adept at making adjustments during the fight. Great all around boxer with no major weaknesses.
• Especially adept at fighting inside and wearing his opponents down with body shots. Arguably the best inside fighter of the past 20 years.
•  Has excellent defensive skills. Keeps chin down and hands high, making him a tough target to hit cleanly. Has a solid chin when hit.
• Doesn't have the knockout power he once had but still has good power in both hands.
• At 6'1", has height advantage over the 5'10" Murat. Also has a 5" reach advantage. 
• 48 years old (2.5 months from turning 49) but still in world class shape, as evidenced by the fact that he is the current IBF light heavyweight champion of the world and recently beaten the likes of Tavoris Cloud (17 years his junior) and Jean Pascal (18 years his junior), two of the top 10 light heavyweight boxers in the world.
• Hopkins is the more experienced, more skilled fighter by a wide margin. Has fought (and beaten) the likes of Keith Holmes, Felix Trinidad, Oscar De La Hoya, Roy Jones Jr., Kelly Pavlik, and William Joppy. In his prime, Hopkins achieved a record 20 middleweight world title defenses. Murat has never won (or even fought for) a major world title belt.
• Will be fighting in front of a decidedly pro-Hopkins crowd in Atlantic City, NJ (only a one hour drive from his hometown of Philadelphia, PA). This will be Hopkins' 18th time fighting in Atlantic City as a pro. 

Negatives for Hopkins

• Hopkins is 48 years old, 18 years older than Murat. Hopkins has consistently fought at a world-class level and beaten top-level competition but he'll inevitably slow down at his older age. Could this be the fight where he finally shows his age? 
• Notoriously slow starter in fights. Starts slow while taking the time to read and make adjustments to his opponent.  
• Has a tendency to pace himself during fights. He'll often fight in spurts, sometimes having significant portions of rounds where he isn't very active. Often slow in setting up his punches.
• Although he has good power in both hands, Hopkins doesn't have the knockout power he once had. Hopkins has never really been a knockout puncher and won't win this fight by KO. If Hopkins wants to win this fight, he'll have to win by decision. 

Positives for Murat

• Fundamentally sound counter puncher with good defense. Employs classic European high guard defense (think Arthur Abraham and Winky Wright) and patiently waits for opportunities to counter. Has good boxing IQ.
• Is a "come forward" boxer who is very good at using his feet to cut the ring off and walk his opponents down. Punches well to the body and, despite his patience, has good punch output.  
• Has relatively quick hands and throws short punches well, which may help against an excellent inside fighter like Hopkins.
• Only loss was to Nathan Cleverly, a solid fighter who is currently ranked the #3 light heavyweight boxer in the world.
• Is 18 years younger than Hopkins. If Hopkins shows signs of slowing down, Murat may be able to outwork and wear him down.
• Murat has an experienced trainer in Ulli Wegner who has trained other top German fighters such as Arthur Abraham and Marco Huck.

Negatives for Murat

• At the end of the day is a B-level/2nd-tier fighter who isn't nearly as skilled or experienced as Hopkins.
• Murat hasn't fought a professional fight in over a year (last fight: June, 2012). Murat will be fighting in the United States for the first time in front of a hostile, pro-Hopkins crowd.
• Hopkins is taller than Murat (6'1" vs. 5'10") and has a 5" reach advantage. Murat has had trouble in the past vs. taller, longer fighters (e.g., Nathan Cleverly).
• Cuts off ring well, but is not a good finisher and does not punch with a lot of power. Will often stick with high guard posture and passive defense at times when it may be preferable to be more aggressive.

Prefight Summary

This should be an easy fight for Hopkins. Hopkins is 48 years old, but has showed no signs of slowing down in recent years. Hopkins still has elite technique and defensive skills which should be more than enough to outpoint Murat, who is a good fighter but is a couple levels below Hopkins skill-wise. Murat is fighting outside of Europe for the first time in his career and may be rusty as he hasn't fought in well over a year. (Murat's last fight was in June 2012 vs. Sandro Siproshvili, a European journeyman who's lost 11 of his last 15 fights.) 

Aside from his advantages in skill and experience, Hopkins has physical advantages in height and reach which will be very difficult for Murat to overcome. (Murat has struggled in the past vs. skilled taller fighters with a reach advantage.) Even if Murat can overcome Hopkins' length and get into an inside brawl he faces a very daunting task as Hopkins is one of the best, if not the best, inside fighter of his generation. Murat does not have KO power so he likely won't win with a lucky punch; Murat's only chance to win is if Hopkins shows his age (which is highly possible at 48 years old) and Murat is able to take advantage by outworking Hopkins and beating him to the punch on the inside.

But the bottom line on this fight is Hopkins is the more experienced fighter with superior skills and higher boxing IQ, and is fighting an hour from his hometown in front of a pro-Hopkins crowd. It would take an epic meltdown from Hopkins to blow this fight. Murat's patient, deliberate style should be easy for Hopkins to figure out and break down as the fight progresses; expect Hopkins to win by a wide unanimous decision.

Prediction: Hopkins by decision 

Alvarado vs. Provodnikov: postfight analysis (scoring recap + summary)

Outcome: Provodnikov defeats Alvarado by RTD at the end of the 10th round to become interim WBO light welterweight champion
Judge Scorecards (at time of stoppage): Dennis Nelson 97-90 | Robert Hoyle 98-90 | Levi Martinez 96-92

Master Class Boxing Scorecard: 96-93 (Provodnikov)

(click here to view CompuBox PunchStats)

Round-by-Round Scoring Recap

Round 1: Clear round for Provodnikov. Provodnikov moving really well, cutting off ring and applying pressure much better than I thought he would vs. the more mobile Alvarado. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 10-9 Provodnikov

Round 2: Alvarado moving much better in this round, using his jab to keep Provodnikov at bay. This was how I expected Alvarado to come out and fight. Clear round for Alvarado. For the most part in the first 5-6 rounds, Alvarado did successfully outbox Provodnikov with lateral movement and timely jabs and combinations which I'd thought would be his formula to winning this fight. 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 19-19 Even

Round 3: 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 29-28 Alvarado

Round 4:  10-10, Score: 39-38 Alvarado

Round 5:  10-9 Alvarado, Score: 49-47 Alvarado

Round 6: Provodnikov landed the more vicious shots in this round, but was clearly outworked by Alvarado. 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 59-56 Alvarado

Round 7: Alvarado won the first half of the round staying busy behind his jab but Provodnikov tagged Alvarado with a series of vicious shots throughout the second half of the round to take Round 7. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 68-66 Alvarado

Round 8: Provodnikov's pressure proves to be too overwhelming for Alvarado. Alvarado down twice in this round, the first two times he's been knocked down in his career. To his credit, Alvarado got up and fought very bravely but this was the beginning of the end for him. 10-7 Provodnikov, Score: 76-75 Provodnikov

Round 9:  Provodnikov continues to apply heavy pressure on Alvarado. Alvarado's recovered a bit from the two knockdowns in the previous round but is having difficulty withstanding the pressure. Clear round for Provodnikov. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 86-84 Provodnikov

Round 10:  Another clear round for Provodnikov. Alvarado is still attempting to move and jab (which he had success with in the earlier rounds) but Provodnikov's pressure is too much. Alvarado is getting tagged with body shots and combinations. Alvarado hits Provodnikov with a few solid shots but Provodnikov walks right through his punches and keeps attacking. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 96-93 Provodnikov

In between the 10th and 11th rounds, Alvarado retires on his stool.

Postfight Summary

Prediction: Alvarado by decision
Outcome: Provodnikov by RTD

I predicted the outcome of this fight incorrectly but the dynamics of the fight were generally what I expected. In my prefight analysis summary, I said the fight would come down to Alvarado's lateral movement and ability to box effectively on the outside vs. Provodnikov's high-pressure, power punching style. I felt that Alvarado would likely earn the decision by using his foot speed advantage to box outside and keep Provodnikov at bay with his length and power, but that there was a decent chance Provodnikov's pressure would overwhelm Alvarado resulting in Provodnikov getting the win by TKO/KO.

After Round 1 it was clear to me that I: 1) underestimated Provodnikov's lateral movement and ability to pressure more mobile fighters and 2) overestimated Alvarado's foot speed and ability to keep Provodnikov at bay. Provodnikov cut off the ring extremely well in this round and set the tone for how he'd wear Alvarado down round by round. I'd thought Alvarado would be able to use lateral movement and boxing skills to carry the fight similar to Tim Bradley in his more successful rounds vs. Provodnikov and similar to his second fight vs. Brandon Rios. The problem with my analysis was that Mike Alvarado does not have anywhere near the lateral movement and boxing skills Tim Bradley has and Provodnikov is a better pressure fighter than Rios and packs an even harder punch (especially when going to the body).

Alvarado actually did have a lot of success early in the fight boxing on the outside, confusing Provodnikov by switching to a southpaw stance and keeping Provodnikov honest with lead right hands and uppercuts (after 6 rounds I actually had Alvarado winning the fight by 3 points), but Provodnikov's foot movement and ability to cut Alvarado off in the ring was a lot better than what I thought it would be. Alvarado was outlanding Provodnikov in most of the early rounds, but Provodnikov wore Alvarado down round-by-round with vicious power shots and eventually caught up to him in the 8th round, knocking him down twice (the first two knockdowns of Alvarado's career) in what would signal the beginning of the end of the fight.

Another key to Provodnikov winning the fight was his excellent chin. There were a few spots in the early rounds of the fight where Alvarado did stand in and brawl; Alvarado actually had good success in most of these exchanges and landed nearly half (49.7%) of his power punches over the first six rounds of the fight. The difference in the fight was that Provodnikov's chin was able to withstand those power punches (he actually laughed many of them off), while Provodnikov's power eventually broke Alvarado down.

This was a highly entertaining fight which should leave fight fans looking forward to seeing both Provodnikov and Alvarado (especially Provodnikov) fight again. Provodnikov has proven that he's a better boxer than a lot of people give him credit for and, under Freddie Roach's tutelage, the sky's the limit.  However, it remains to be seen whether Provodnikov can defeat the uber-elite boxers in his weight range (Mayweather, Pacquaio, Bradley, Marquez, Garcia, Matthysse). Provodnikov's defense is still very suspect... Alvarado did land 46% of his power shots in the fight while Bradley landed 43% of his power shots in his fight vs. Provodnikov back in March. As outstanding as Provodnikov's chin is (and it's possible he has the best chin in the sport), he will never be an elite boxer if he continues to allow his opponents to land power punches at such a high percentage. His defense must improve, especially given the plethora of power punchers in the light welterweight and welterweight divisions he fights in. 

Hope you enjoyed this blog! Our next analysis will discuss the October 19th fight between Bernard Hopkins and Karo Murat.