Gervonta Davis vs. Ryan Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Gervonta Davis (28-0, 26 KOs) vs. Ryan Garcia (23-0, 19 KOs) 

Location:  T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: April 22, 2023
Weight class: Super lightweight (catchweight of 136 lbs)
Major title(s) on the line: None
TV/Stream: Showtim PPV/DAZN PPV
Line (Bovada): Davis: -225, Garcia: +185  (as of 4/21/23)
Purse: Davis: $ million, Garcia: $ million 
Ring Magazine Rankings: Davis: #2 ranked lightweight, Garcia: #3 ranked lightweight
Style: Davis: Southpaw, Garcia: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

In a lot of ways, I see the value in taking Ryan Garcia to win this fight as a 2-1 underdog (or even as high as an 8-1 underdog if betting him to win by decision). At the end of the day, Garcia is a highly-accomplished, undefeated fighter with an inordinate amount of self-confidence. (As boxing fans know, confidence and self-belief goes a long, long way in this sport - perhaps more so than any other sport.) Garcia also happens to be the bigger, faster, and taller fighter, and will enter Saturday's fight with a slight - but still very notable - 2.5" reach advantage. 

Garcia has concussive power with lighting-quick hands that - similar to Manny Pacquiao in his heydey - actually amplify the effect of his power. (Obviously not saying Garcia is as great as the Filipino legend, just comparing the speed and its effect on their punching power.) At only 24 years old, he's even the younger fighter in this matchup... many still look at Gervonta as a very young fighter despite the fact that he's actually fast approaching his 30s (Gervonta turns 29 later this year). 

Saturday's fight is likely the first fight in Gervonta's professional career where he'll face a fighter who has quicker hands, faster reflexes, and a longer reach than he does. Boxing observers might be underestimating - perhaps severely - how difficult it might be for Gervonta to close distance and land punches effectively given Ryan's advantages here. And given Gervonta's propensity for starting slow in fights, he might dig himself into a hole in the early rounds that might be too difficult to come back from if Ryan can manage distance well enough and use his advantages in length and quickness to evade Gervonta's pressure in the mid to late rounds. 

We've already seen several upsets of undefeated, highly-regarded fighters in just the past couple of months (Rey Vargas, Sebastian Fundora, and Joe Joyce perhaps the most notable examples). Garcia defeating Gervonta Davis would certainly be the most high-profile upset of them all, though Garcia is actually considered less of an underdog than any of the fighters who beat the aforementioned Vargas (O'Shaquie Foster at +225), Fundora (Brian Mendoza at +620), or Joyce (Zhilei Zhang at +560) were in the opening betting lines for those fights.  At nearly +200 to win, or even +800 by decision, betting a small amount on Ryan Garcia to win is intriguing and may have some value. 

But I really like Gervonta in this matchup. I think his advantages in all-around skill, ring IQ, and big fight experience will shine through on Saturday night. Over the past several years, including recent fights, Gervonta in my opinion has proven himself to be a more complete, more technically-skilled boxer than Ryan. Now I'd rate Gervonta's reflexes - and arguably even his power - as not quite as good as Ryan's. But Tank does have trigger-quick, concussive power of his own that I think will ultimately prove to be much more effective than Ryan's down the stretch. 

For all the hype and attention surrounding Gervonta's knockout power and aggression, Gervonta is by nature a patient, thinking fighter with vastly underrated ring IQ. In consistency with his cautiously aggressive style, Gervonta will likely place much higher priority than the sometimes reckless Ryan - who's defensive deficiencies (most notably his tendency of fighting in a tall, upright stance with his chin up) are much more glaring - on responsible defense and evading potential fight-ending counters. 

Ryan has in multiple fights also shown a questionable chin - most notably getting knocked down in the 2nd round of his January 2021 TKO victory vs. Luke Campbell. (Luke Campbell was a solid, respected fighter, though was never a fighter known for his punching power.) I suspect Gervonta, on the other hand, may prove to have a granite chin. (The fact that Gervonta has never even come close to getting knocked down or knocked out in his pro career and even the structure and density of Gervonta's larger-than-normal sized head is evidence of this.)

Gervonta is a smart, fundamentally sound fighter who's consistently shown the ability to make adjustments and apply pressure with increasing efficiency as fights get into the middle and later rounds. Gervonta actually throws the fewest punches per round of any CompuBox-tracked fighter but is #1 amongst all CompuBox-tracked fighters in the percentage of times (47.6%) he lands power punches... a testament to his cautiously aggressive -yet highly accurate - style. 

Garcia seems supremely confident heading into Saturday's matchup, but he's still very young and will be headlining a PPV even for the first time in his career. Gervonta is equally confident, but has much more experience on this stage; Saturday's fight will be his 6th consecutive fight as the A-side for a PPV event.

As quick-tempered and emotional as Gervonta sometimes is outside of the ring, he's consistently shown Mayweather-esque poise inside of it, including the ability to block out whatever issues/troubles he might have going on in his personal life. I think Gervonta's poise and patient fighting style will get rewarded when Garcia's defensive deficiencies (upright chin, tendency to drop hands and predictably pull back in a straight line when moving out of the pocket, below average foot positioning, etc.) catch up to him in the mid to late rounds. Both fighters will land power punches - I just see Gervonta being able to handle Garcia's landed punches better due to having a better chin, more responsible defense, and previous experience in tough, big fights. Garcia is also at times reckless and overeager to land his power shots - which I think plays perfectly into the hands of a much more cautious fighter like Gervonta.

The clear play for me here is Gervonta Davis by TKO/KO/DQ at -150 or better (I bet Gervonta by TKO/KO/DQ at -132 odds). With that said - given the advantages I outlined earlier for Garcia - it may also be worth hedging this bet with Ryan Garcia to win by decision at +600 or better given how wide those odds are (though I personally won't be making this bet).

Definitely looking forward to attending this fight! Will likely be the most star-studded boxing event since the final boxing events involving Floyd Mayweather several years ago. The clash of styles, personalities, and even fan demographics here between the two fighters is fascinating so will be very curious to see how this all plays out. Good luck in however you decide to bet!

Prediction: Davis by TKO/KO/DQ

Recommended bet: Davis by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to WIN 1 unit) 

Canelo vs. Bivol: prefight analysis and betting prediction

 Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (57-1-2, 39 KOs) vs. Dmitry Bivol (19-0, 11 KOs) 

Location:  T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 7, 2022
Weight class: Light heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBA Super World light heavyweight title
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (Bovada): Alvarez: -600, Bivol: +375   (5/7/22)
Purse: Alvarez: $15 million, Bivol: $2 million (base salary; Canelo will also earn 70 percent of PPV sales with a reported cap of $40 million, while Bivol will earn 30 percent of PPV sales)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine super middleweight champion, Bivol: #2 ranked light heavyweight 
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Bivol: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

So there's a lot of straightforward reasons to pick Canelo here. For a few years now, he's been considered by many to be the #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the world - a future first ballot hall-of-famer still in the prime of his career with a rare combination of sublime skill, power, and ring IQ. Not to mention one of the best chins and overall defensive abilities in boxing on top of that. As impressive as he's been since his only loss nearly a decade ago to Floyd Mayweather, Canelo is arguably still continuing to improve with each fight as he's moved up in weight. Canelo's confidence also seems to be at an all-time high, as evidenced in his recent stoppages of naturally bigger, more mobile, undefeated champions in Billy Jo Saunders and Caleb Plant who most - myself included - figured would at least be able to last the distance vs. a relatively flat-footed Canelo. 

Canelo certainly also has an advantage in experience, having the best resume of any active fighter in boxing, having fought a who's who of elite fighters (across a wide variety of fighting styles)  in his 60-fight career, and routinely fights on the biggest stage in boxing in front of massive crowds. Tonight he'll be facing a relatively inexperienced opponent in Bivol who has only 19 career fights and whose best win came in 2019 vs. current WBO light heavyweight champion Joe Smith Jr. - a solid but still somewhat raw and undisciplined fighter that very few if any would consider one of the elite fighters in the sport. 

Canelo's versatility and savvy both offensively and defensively might be too much for a relatively straightforward, primarily 1-2 puncher in Bivol who seems to lack true knockout power vs. the best fighters in his weight class, with his last six fights at light heavyweight having gone to decision without Bivol scoring even a single knockdown.   

Even if this fight turns out to be competitive and close, it's difficult to imagine Bivol getting a decision given Canelo's long and notorious track record of getting the benefit of the doubt on judges' scorecards. On Cinco de Mayo weekend, the uber-popular Mexican boxing superstar will almost certainlybe the beneficiary of favorable scoring vs. atherelatively unknown, unheralded Russian fighter - especially given the current anti-Russian social and political climate. Bivol is undefeated and been a champion at 175 lbs for five years but he's a nearly 4-1 underdog for good reasons. There's seemingly too much Bivol might have to overcome - both inside and outside the ring - to upset the A-side of this matchup... who happens to be boxing's #1 cash cow and one of the biggest draws in all of sports.

Albeit for relatively small wagers, I've been (incorrectly) betting against Canelo for some time now. Maybe (or probably) I'm the sucker when it comes to odds against Canelo but I think this is arguably the strongest opportunity to bet against Canelo since his fight vs. Mayweather back in 2013. As quite possibly the best light heavyweight boxer in the world, Bivol is being severely underrated in this matchup. Yes, he's inexperienced at the elite level, but he's undefeated in his career and made fights vs. very solid opponents such as Joe Smith, Isaac Chilemba, Jean Pascal, and Sullivan Barrera look easy, with multiple judges in each of those fights either scoring the fight a shutout or giving Bivol's opponent only one round for the entire fight. While Bivol's last six fights have gone to decision, he stopped 11 out of the first 13 opponents he faced in his career, which is evidence that Canelo will have to respect his power somewhat.    

As great as Canelo is - I think there's a chance he might be biting off more than he can chew at 175 lbs. Canelo has fought only one other time at light heavyweight, in November 2019 when he fought a washed, past-prime Sergei Kovalev in a fight that was very competitive until Canelo scored an 11th round KO stoppage. (I had Kovalev up two points at the time of stoppage; one of the official judges had it a draw.) Bivol, unlike Kovalev was when he fought Canelo, is still in his prime, undefeated, adept at boxing on his feet, and I think overall will have much more success fighting from distance behind his power jab than Kovalev, Saunders, and Plant did to varying extends when they fought Canelo.   

Like Canelo, Bivol is an elitely-skilled, highly efficient puncher who is also defensively responsible and excellent at managing distance. Per CompuBox, Bivol is second only to long-time Canelo rival Gennady Golovkin in total number of jabs landed per round amongst all active boxers. (Golovkin's jab was effective vs. Canelo in both fights he had against the Mexican superstar; I think a bigger, more mobile Bivol can be comparably effective with his jab even if the jab doesn't have as much power behind it as Golovkin's.) Per CompuBox, Bivol is also second (to current WBO middlewight champion Demetrius Andrade) amongst all active boxers in total number of punches landed on him per rounds, which is in large part a testament to how well Bivol manages distance behind his jab. Overall, Bivol leads all active boxers - including pound-for-pound level fighters like Canelo, Shakur Stevenson, and Vasiliy Lomachenko - in  CompuBox plus/minus rating, a statistic frequently used to assess how dominant a fighter has been over his opposition. (Plus/minus rating is calculated as the difference in connect percentage between a fighter and his opponent and was a statistic Mayweather was notorious for consistently being the highest rated boxer for when he was active.)

If Bivol can effectively shut out bigger, stronger fighters who had reach advantage like Joe Smith behind his jab, I think we can expect him to be similarly effective in large stretches of the fight vs. a smaller fighter in Canelo vs. whom he has a slight 1.5" reach advantage.  

All things considered,  especially when considering his edge in experience, skill, and punching power - not to mention a favorable Cinco de Mayo environment where you can almost expect the judges to score this fight favorable for him - I do think Canelo probably wins this fight. But at 7-1, I like Bivol by decision as far and away the best value for this fight. For similar reasons, I also think a draw (20-1) is good value and think, no matter who wins, the fight is highly likely to go the distance (-200) given the elite defensive abilities of both fighters, neither of whom have ever even been knocked down in their career.  

I'll be at the fight and definitely looking forward to this matchup. I think it'll be a better fight than most are thinking and we might be in for a big upset!!!

Prediction: Canelo by decision

Recommended bets: 1) Fight to go the distance (bet to WIN .5 unit) 

2) Bivol to win by decision (bet to RISK .33 unit)

 3) Fight to end in a draw (bet to RISK .25 unit)

Fury vs. Wilder III: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Tyson Fury (30-0-1, 21 KOs) vs. Deontay Wilder (42-1-1, 41 KOs) 

Location:  T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: October 9, 2021
Weight class: Heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World heavyweight title
TV/Stream: ESPN/FOX PPV
Line (Bovada): Fury: -275, Wilder: +215   (10/9/21)
Purse: Fury: $6 million, Wilder: $4 million (base salary; Fury will be guaranteed at least $30 million, while Wilder will be guaranteed at least $20 million based upon the contracted 60/40 split for the 3rd fight, not including percentages of PPV profits)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Fury: Ring Magazine heavyweight champion, Wilder: #3 ranked heavyweight 
Style: Fury: Orthodox, Wilder: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Wilder wins this fight. Fight fans talk all the time about "puncher's chance." Wilder might actually be the best example in the history of boxing of a fighter who always has a puncher's chance with his historically great punching power that I think gives him a legitimate shot to beat anyone put in front of him - including the objectively more skilled Fury who's arguably won as many as 17 of the 19 rounds they've fought in their two previous fights. 

Wilder will be coming off the longest layoff of his career but Fury himself will be coming off his 2nd longest layoff - a nearly 20-month layoff during the latter part of which he caught COVID (reportedly suffering mild breathing and congestion issues as a result) and most recently had to also deal with the huge disappointment  of losing a potentially massive payday in a future unification bout with Anthony Joshua is what would've been the biggest fight in the history of UK boxing. (Two weeks ago, the favored Joshua lost his WBA, IBF, and WBO heavyweight titles to undefeated Ukrainian Olexandr Usyk; a victory by Joshua vs. Usyk followed by a Fury win tonight would've set the stage for a Joshua/Fury matchup in 2022 for the undisputed heavyweight championship in which Fury would've been the favorite. Paydays were expected to approach $100 million for each fighter in that matchup.)  

Will a fighter notorious for his unpredictability and at times (given his diagnosed bipolar disorder) lack of mental instability), coming off an extended layoff where he had to recover from COVID and experience the disappointment of losing a possible career-defining fight vs. Joshua be sufficiently motivated to beat a fighter he already feels he beat twice? (The first fight between Fury and Wilder in 2018 was officially scored a draw, though most felt Fury outboxed Wilder in that matchup.) Wilder comes into this fight seeking revenge for the embarrassing TKO loss in their February 2020 rematch - one gets the impression Wilder wants this more and has much more to lose career-wise than Fury in tonight's matchup. Despite the loss to Fury in their previous fight, Wilder seems extremely confident and determined to win - it wouldn't surprise me at all if he puts everything together and pulls off the stoppage... as he came within a fraction of a second of doing in the final round of their first fight.

But I think - as he's already demonstrated in the clear majority of the 19 rounds he's faced Wilder in their two previous fights - Fury's skills will be too much for Wilder to overcome. Since he beat Vladimir Klitschko in 2015, I've felt Fury is the best heavyweight of this generation (i.e., better than even prime Klitschko and the best heavyweight fighter since Lennox Lewis). Fury mostly outboxed Wilder in their first fight, then made adjustments to more effectively utilize his advantages in size and strength to completely dominate the slightly favored Wilder in last year's rematch. Wilder is renowned for his punching power, but not so much for his technical boxing skills or ability to make adjustments. Even with his new trainer, Malik Scott, I seriously doubt Wilder's ability to effectively make adjustments vs. a supremely-skilled heavyweight like Fury. Wilder failed to make adjustments in his previous fight vs. Fury (losing the first 6 rounds on 2 of the 3 judges' scorecards before getting stopped in the 7th) and even failed to make adjustments in his fight prior to that - his rematch vs. Luis Ortiz where he also arguably lost every round in that fight before stopping Ortiz in the 7th. 

Wilder is a predictable, relatively basic boxer who had trouble landing punches on Fury in both previous fights, landing only 16.5% of his attempted punches in their first fight and a still very low 24.1% in their rematch where Fury fought more aggressively coming forward. Wilder's punch output has also (noticeably) declined in recent fights. There's nothing in Wilder's previous fights - in particular the rematches he's already had vs. Fury and Ortiz - that makes me think he can make the adjustments necessary to have more than a puncher's chance of beating Fury. Wilder's nature is to fight one way (behind the punching power in his right hand); at 35 years old and arguably a bit past his prime, that's highly unlikely to change in a way that will be effective vs. perhaps the best heavyweight fighter of this generation. 

I think Fury, as he's indicated several times in recent pre-fight interviews, will be as aggressive and physical as he was in the last fight and aim for another early round stoppage of Wilder. Wilder, having full confidence in his own power and seeing how Fury bullied through his cautious approach in their rematch, will at some point in tonight's fight - probably early in the fight - feel he has no choice but to reciprocate Fury's aggression and come out swinging. 

While Wilder will likely be more prepared for Fury's tactics this time around, I don't see this fight going the distance - I see a stoppage one way or the other in the early to middle rounds. Most likely, Fury will be able to - as he did in the last fight - use his superior size, jab, movement, and overall skill advantage to outphysical and outwit Wilder to earn another TKO/KO victory. Fury's increased aggression will of course leave him more susceptible to Wilder's power, so it's certainly well within the range of possibility it's Wilder who gets the stoppage this time around.

Given the pricing of Fury as a (roughly) -300 betting favorite, I feel the bet with the most value as of now is the under 7.5 rounds (which can currently be found around even money odds), with a smaller bet on Fury to win by TKO/KO/DQ (which can also be found at around even money odds) also being worthwhile. The main fight could certainly go either way but very much looking forward to the all-heavyweight PPV card tonight!

Prediction: Fury to win

Recommended bets: 1) Under 7.5 rounds (bet to WIN .5 unit) 2) Fury to win by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to WIN .25 unit)

Joshua vs. Usyk: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Anthony Joshua (24-1, 22 KOs) vs. Oleksandr Usyk (18-0, 13 KOs)

Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United Kingdom
Date: September 25, 2021
Weight class: Heavyweight 
Major title(s) on the line: WBA Super, IBF, and WBO Heavyweight titles
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (Bovada): Joshua: -285, Usyk: +210  (9/23/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Joshua: #1 ranked heavyweight, Usyk: #4 ranked pound-for-pound, #10 ranked heavyweight
Style: Joshua: Orthodox, Usyk: Southpaw

Why you should watch this fight

Anthony Joshua vs. Oleksandr Usyk will be the first major PPV fight of the fall in what is shaping up to be a pretty loaded final quarter of the 2021 boxing season (scheduled major championship fights include Tyson Fury vs. Deontay Wilder III, Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant, Teofimo Lopez vs. George Kambosos Jr., Jamel Herring vs. Shakur Stevenson, and Josh Taylor vs. Jack Catterall). 

Joshua vs. Usyk is one of the better matchups that could've been made in boxing and is arguably the best heavyweight matchup we'll have this year. In Joshua, you have a unified heavyweight champion and former gold medalist who's right up there with Mexican superstar Canelo Alvarez as the biggest draw in boxing. (While Canelo is a bigger draw in the United States and North America, Joshua might be a bigger draw in terms of worldwide support.) But this weekend, Joshua will face undefeated Ukrainian star Olexsandr Usyk, a former gold medalist himself who, after only 18 professional fights, is already considered one of the great cruiserweights in boxing history, having reigned as undisputed cruiserweight champion from July 2018 until March 2019 when he vacated his titles to move up to heavyweight. Usyk was the third cruiserweight in boxing history (Evander Holyfield, O'Neil Bell) to become undisputed champion in that weight class and the first cruiserweight in history to hold four major belts at once; for his efforts, Usyk was named 2018 Fighter of the Year by all the major boxing outlets.

Saturday's fight is a classic matchup between a big power puncher in Joshua with 22 knockouts in 25 career fights (88% KO percentage, with Joseph Parker being the only boxer Joshua's faced that he's never knocked down or stopped) and a slick, crafty master boxer in Usyk. In Usyk, Joshua is in with (perhaps by far) the most skilled fighter he's faced in his career, a fighter who also happens to be rated the #4 boxer in the world pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine. (Usyk will actually be the first pound-for-pound ranked boxer Joshua has fought in his career.)   

If Joshua beats the undefeated, pound-for-pound #4-ranked Usyk, it would possibly become the best win on his resume; beating an undefeated, pound-for-pound rated fighter like Usyk would also create a strong argument that Joshua himself deserves pound-for-pound ranking consideration. A win would also set Joshua up as the A-side in a potential mega-fight in 2022 with the winner of next month's Fury vs. Wilder matchup. 

If Usyk wins, he will be the unified heavyweight champion of the world and almost certainly (if he hasn't already)have stamped his ticket into the boxing hall-of-fame after only 19 professional fights. A win would potentially put Usyk in line for the winner of Fury vs. Wilder, where he can attempt to become the 1st boxer since Evander Holyfield (and 2nd overall in boxing history) to have been the undisputed champion at both cruiserweight and heavyweight during his career.

Prefight analysis

Despite being undersized at heavyweight, Usyk is more than a live dog in this matchup. Usyk is almost certainly the best boxer Joshua will have faced to date - an unbeaten, pound-for-pound ranked, likely future hall-of-famer with superior ring IQ, skills, footwork, and hand speed compared to the relatively basic, often flat-footed, and stiff Joshua. 

Usyk isn't just a great boxer, he's potentially an all-time great boxer given what he's already accomplished thus far in his career. Typically a slow starter, Usyk is known for upping his punch rate and coming on in the mid/late rounds of fights; that combined with his elite footwork and ability to box well on the move should be at least somewhat effective in tiring Joshua, who is known for having stamina issues after the early rounds.

Usyk is a disciplined, composed fighter who I think could seize the moment in the biggest fight of his career and apply effective, fight-changing pressure on a fighter in Joshua who we've seen get tense and stiffen up in the middle rounds of not only his loss to Andy Ruiz in June of 2019, but also his stoppage victory vs. Vladimir Klitschko where he was knocked down and nearly stopped in the middle rounds. The longer this fight goes, the more the fight becomes dependent on ring IQ and skill advantage; in my opinion Usyk is decisively superior in both areas, which gives him a very real shot at an upset this weekend.

With all that said, I think Joshua's advantages in size, reach, and punching power will be too much for the recently converted cruiserweight to overcome in this matchup. While immensely talented and skilled, Usyk doesn't have heavyweight size or punching power, and I think also won't have the punch activity at heavyweight to be consistently effective vs. Joshua. Joshua not only has the size and power, he'll also enter the ring with a notable 4" reach advantage, which he'll be able to use to work behind his highly effective power jab all night, as he did in his unanimous decision rematch victory vs. Ruiz in December of 2019. Usyk is certainly elusive enough to evade Joshua's attack in most spots, but - as an undersized opponent - he'll likely have to be cautious and respect Joshua's power for all 12 rounds. Note that Usyk even had difficulty at times in his most recent fight with the size and power of heavyweight contender Derek Chisora, who is not as big and - with a career 53% KO percentage - doesn't have nearly the punching power of Joshua. (Usyk beat Chisora by unanimous decision but only won by two points on 2 out of 3 judges' scorecards.)

Joshua doesn't move as well as Usyk, but is mobile enough to box at a safe distance from Usyk's attack given his reach advantage. Despite Joshua's questionable chin, Usyk likely doesn't have the punching power at heavyweight to give Joshua problems, even if he is able to close the distance. 

Usyk's punch activity has noticeably declined in the two fights he's had since moving up to heavyweight; given that he'll likely have to be even more cautious than he's been in his two previous fights facing a power puncher like Joshua, I highly doubt we'll see as many punches out of Usyk on Saturday that we became accustomed to seeing during his quick ascent to the top of the cruiserweight division. (Trading punches with Joshua I think will be a quick recipe for Usyk getting stopped and I suspect Usyk is aware of that.) 

While Usyk is experienced, having consistently fought tough competition throughout his short but accomplished 18-fight career, Saturday's fight will be just his 3rd fight at heavyweight. Despite clearly winning both of his previous fights at heavyweight, Usyk didn't look terribly impressive in either fight as the size of both of his previous heavyweight opponents (Chazz Witherspoon, who fought Usyk on only 4 days notice after the previously scheduled opponent failed a drug test, and Chisora, who is arguably not even a top 10 heavyweight), seemed to stymie some of Usyk's punch activity and overall effective aggression in spots. 

Another hugely significant obstacle for Usyk is the fact that the fight is taking in Joshua's home country (United Kingdom), and in an area of London not too far from the town where Joshua was born and raised. As arguably the single biggest draw in boxing, Joshua is obviously the A-side in this promotion, and just within the past couple of days signed a lifetime contract with famed boxing promoter Eddie Hearn and his Matchroom Sport promotions company. Saturday's fight will take place in a 60,000+ capacity soccer stadium in London, where at least 90% of the fans in attendance will be raucously supporting Joshua. Given the boxing politics typically involved in protecting boxers that generate enormous sums of revenue and the home crowd advantage that Joshua will enjoy, it's tough to envision a case where any reasonably close fight here will be scored for Usyk. Usyk would likely have to completely dominate the fight over several rounds or knock Joshua out to get the victoy - which seems unlikely given the size discrepancy and Usyk's lack of knockout power. 

But I do think Usyk, who I anticipate will be more cautious than usual in this matchup, possesses the footwork and savvy to last 12 rounds vs. Joshua. So I see Joshua by decision as the best bet, though I wouldn't be surprised if Joshua's power proves to be a bit too much for Usyk, with Joshua possibly getting the stoppage in the later rounds.

But very much looking forward to this fight - I've got to get out to one of these big fights in the UK someday!!!

Prediction: Joshua to win

Recommended bet: Joshua by decision (RISK .5 unit)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pacquiao vs. Ugas: Why You Should Watch This Fight

 Fight: Manny Pacquiao (62-7-2, 39 KOs) vs. Yordenis Ugas (26-4, 12 KOs)

Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: August 21, 2021
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Major title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Welterweight title
TV/Stream: FOX PPV
Line (Bovada): Pacquiao: -400, Ugas: +300  (8/21/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao: #3 ranked welterweight, Ugas: #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Ugas: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

Manny Pacquiao vs. Errol Spence was set to be the biggest fight of the summer - an 8-division champion in Pacquiao universally recognized as one of the great pound-for-pound boxers of all-time vs. an undefeated, two-belt welterweight champion in Spence, considered arguably the best welterweight in the world and one of the top 5-6 boxers pound-for-pound in the world today. That was until Spence - only 10 days prior to the fight - had to abruptly pull out of the match after doctors uncovered a retinal tear in his left eye. 

Spence was replaced by Cuban boxer Yordenis Ugas, who was elevated from WBA Regular to WBA Super welterwieght champion this past January after Pacquiao was stripped of his title due to inactivity. (Pacquiao had won that WBA Super welterweight belt in his most recent fight way back in April 2019, a split decision vs. then-undefeated champion Keith Thurman.)

Given the ill-timed postponements of several highly-anticipated pay-per-view championship fights in recent weeks (Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant, Tyson Fury vs. Deontay Wilder, Teofimo Lopez vs. George Kambosos as some examples), Pacquiao vs. Ugas has emerged as possibly still the biggest, most intriguing matchup of the summer.  The fight pits an mega-popular legend in Pacquiao - the Boxing Writer's Association of America's Fighter of the Decade for the 2000s, WBC and WBO's Fighter of the Decade for the 2010s, and the only fighter in boxing history to hold world championships across 4 decades (1990s, 2000s, 2010s, 2020s) - vs. a very solid but unheralded Cuban fighter in Ugas in what will be by far the biggest fight in Ugas's career. Ugas, a bronze medalist for Cuba during the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, sports an unremarkable 26-4 record as a pro but has won 11 of his last 12 fights since 2014 - with the lone loss being a controversial split decision loss to then WBC welterweight champion Shawn Porter. (I personally scored that fight a draw.)

Pacquiao is 42 years old (turns 43 in December) and - having not fought in over 2 years - is coming off by far the longest layoff of his professional career. Pacquiao's two previous longest layoffs were the 12-month layoff he took after his controversial unanimous decision loss to Jeff Horn in Australia and the 11.5-month layoff he took after getting knocked out by Juan Manuel Marquez. If Pacquiao wins Saturday night's fight he regains the WBA Super welterweight belt that was stripped from him due to inactivity, and sets himself up for a possible superfight with Spence in 2022 after Spence recovers from his eye injury (or even a possible superfight with undefeated WBO welterweight champion Terence Crawford, who Pacquiao came extremely close to agreeing to terms with for a fight in the Middle East this summer, if Spence doesn't recover in time).

If Ugas wins, it would be the biggest win in the storied history of Cuban boxing (even if Cuba doesn't recognize the accomplishments of defected athletes such as Ugas) and sets him up with a possible unification fight with Spence in early 2022.   

Pacquiao vs. Ugas will be the first pay-per-view event hosted by Fox since Fox co-hosted the Wilder/Fury II boxing event with ESPN back in 2020.   

Canelo vs. Saunders: prefight analysis and betting prediction

 Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (55-1-2 37 KOs) vs. Billy Jo Saunders (30-0, 14 KOs)

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Date: May 8, 2021
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World, WBA World, and WBO World Super Middleweight titles
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (BetAnySports): Alvarez: -725, Saunders: +550  (5/7/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine super middleweight champion, Saunders: #4 ranked super middleweight
Style: Alvaraez: Orthodox, Saunders: Southpaw

Why you should watch this fight

Canelo vs. Billie Joe Saunders will be the biggest fight of the year to date in front of what is widely anticipated to be a full-capacity crowd of well over 60,000 at AT&T Stadium in the Dallas, TX area - a crowd that would be the largest in the United States to attend a sporting event since COVID-mandated capacity limitations on crowds began in early 2020. Canelo vs Saunders is the biggest boxing event currently on the boxing calendar; at over 60,000 tickets already sold, the fight has already amassed sales that exceed the previous record for a Canelo boxing event - 51,420 for Canelo's 2016 WBO junior middleweight title fight vs. then undefeated UK champion Liam Smith.   

 
Canelo - considered by many to be the #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport and biggest boxing star on the planet - is looking to unify his WBC and WBA super middleweight titles vs. undefeated WBO super middleweight champion Billie Joe Saunders in what could be his toughest fight since his rematch with then #1 pound-for-pound and undefeated Gennady Golovkin in 2018. Saunders is a slick, elusive southpaw who, while oft-criticized for fighting down to his level of opponents, could give the heavy betting favorite Canelo one of the toughest matchups of his certain future first ballot hall-of-fame career. As a junior middleweight (154 lbs), Canelo had trouble with other elite, mobile southpaws with a stiff jab - then undefeated WBA super middleweight champion Austin Trout in 2013 and Erislandy Lara in 2014 in fights many thought Trout and Lara won. Saunders provides Canelo's first test vs. a mobile, defensively responsible southpaw since those fights. vs. Trout and Lara (and provides that test as a bigger man two weight classes higher than those previous fights at 154 lbs).  

Saunders comes into Saturday night's fight as the betting underdog for the first time in his career in what will be by far the biggest fight of his career. Will he rise to the occasion (as he's actually been prone to do when facing his toughest opponents) or will we see yet another flat performance (as we've actually seen more often than not vs. even B- and C-level opponents)?

The winner of Saturday night's fight will be the unified WBC, WBA, and WBO super middleweight champion of the world and is set up nicely to challenge undefeated IBF super middleweight champion Caleb Plant later this year to become the first undisputed super middleweight champion in boxing history and first undisputed boxing champion at any weight since Terence Crawford became undisputed light welterweight (140 lbs) champion back in 2017. 

Prefight Analysis

Seems like nearly all the signs in this matchup point to an easy victory for Canelo. 

Still firmly in the prime of his career, Canelo is brimming with confidence as the #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the world, while Saunders is looking to finally attain the respect that's seemingly eluded him his entire career of being one of the elite boxers in the world. 

Amazingly, Canelo seems even now to still be improving after each and every fight, while Saunders has slid by with lackluster performances in the majority of his recent fights.  

Outside of future first ballot hall-of-famer and all-time great Manny Pacquiao, Canelo has the most impressive resume of any active boxer; Saunders' resume, on the other hand, is littered with domestic British-level contenders and other B- and C-level fighters. (Saunders arguably doesn't have a single A-level fighter on his resume.)

Canelo is the "A" side of this matchup, perhaps the biggest draw in the sport (and biggest draw of the post-Mayweather/Pacquiao generation) - a wildly popular fighter with a fan-friendly style facing a relatively unpopular fighter in Saunders notorious for controversial, distasteful behavior outside the ring and uninspired, snoozer performances inside.

Canelo will be fighting in front of a full-capacity crowd in Dallas, Texas where the overwhelming majority of the crowd will be there to root him on. Texas also happens to be a state notorious for partial scorecards in favor of the "A" side fighter. (Though Canelo has seemingly been the beneficiary of favorable judging regardless of fight location.) 

And of course, Canelo just appears to be the more skilled, experienced, dedicated fighter in this matchup with a huge advantage in punching power. Canelo is expected by most boxing pundits to win this fight and I think he probably does get the win.  

But, as a +550 underdog  (translating to being given by oddsmakers just a 15.4% chance to win this fight), I see a little bit of value in taking Saunders to win. Although Saunders' resume is a bit lacking, he is an undefeated, two-division world champion with elite skills (particularly on the defensive end), great foot and upper body movement, and a consistently effective jab. As much as Canelo has improved in recent years, he hasn't fought a slick, elusive southpaw who can move and jab like Saunders since his close (and for some controversial) decision losses to Lara and Trout several years ago. 

Canelo will always be a somewhat flat-footed fighter, which I think Saunders has the skill to exploit for large stretches of Saturday's fight with constant, responsible movement and timely counterpunching from his southpaw stance.

Note that, while he was certainly in trouble in multiple spots late in the fight, Saunders' countryman Callum Smith was able to last the distance just a few months ago in a unanimous decision loss to Canelo. Saunders doesn't have the size or punching power of Smith, but he is much better defensively - including being much more elusive and trickier than the often predictable and straightforward Smith.

Even with his fast hand speed and elite counterpunching ability, I think the slower-footed Canelo will have trouble - particularly in the early rounds of the fight - finding and adjusting to Saunders' movement and overall deceptive, awkward style. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Saunders outbox Canelo in several rounds and fully expect Saunders - who's never been knocked out or even knocked down in his professional career - to last the full 12 rounds vs. a relatively low-volume, plodding counterpuncher in Canelo. Yes, Canelo's counterpunching is timely, accurate, and packed with power that could stop Saunders at any point in the fight. But I think Saunders is the best defensive fighter Canelo has fought since his split decision victory vs. Lara and think Saunders will be mostly successful eluding Canelo's power and the traps he often sets for his opponents.   


In any case, this will be the first fight (and sporting event overall) that I've attended since the pandemic began over a year ago so definitely looking forward to it!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Fight to go the distance (bet to WIN .65 unit      

2) Saunders to win (bet to RISK .15 unit)

Garcia vs. Campbell: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Ryan Garcia (20-0, 17 KOs) vs. Luke Campbell (20-3, 16 KOs)

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Date: January 2, 2021
Weight class: Lightweight
Major title(s) on the line: None
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (BetAnySports): Garcia: -440, Campbell: +350  (1/2/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #5-ranked lightweight, Campbell: #4-ranked lightweight
Style: Garcia: Southpaw, Campbell: Southpaw

Prefight Analysis

So, I fully expect Ryan Garcia - probably the most popular boxing sensation we've seen under the age of 25 since a young Oscar De La Hoya in the mid/late 1990's - to win Saturday's fight vs. Luke Campbell, most likely by stoppage. At just 22 years old he's inexperienced and still a bit raw, but the signs are there that this is a future superstar in the making. Garcia's combination of fast-twitch hand speed and one-punch KO power (power that rates pound-for-pound with the very best in the sport) is rare, as evidenced by his last three fights ending inside 2 rounds - including his most recent fight vs. Francisco Fonseca (1st round KO), a fighter who it took current undefeated WBA (regular) lightweight title holder Gervonta Davis 8 rounds to stop back in 2017, when Davis was Ryan's current age (in what was widely considered a disappointing performance from Davis).   

Campbell is a world-class, battle-tested fighter with a highly impressive amateur pedigree (which includes a 2012 Olympic gold medal), and has the footwork and discipline defensively to frustrate the inexperienced Garcia and prevent him from getting the early stoppage he's been accustomed to in recent fights. Despite this, Garcia's (wide) advantage in hand speed and comparable reach relative to Campbell should allow him to be reasonably effective in landing a good portion of his patented left hooks and straight right hands over the course of the fight. The concussive power that complements Garcia's quick hands might be an insurmountable obstacle for a somewhat chinny Campbell who, while durable (having never been stopped in his professional career), has been knocked down four times in his last 11 fights - all at the hands of fighters with considerably less punching power than Garcia. 

Garcia is a young, supremely confident boxer who has shown vast improvements in recent fights, having knocked out all four fighters he's faced inside of 5 rounds since switching trainers two years ago from his father to reigning BWAA trainer of the year - and current trainer of Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #1 Canelo Alvarez  - Eddy Reynoso. He's an undefeated Mexican-American fighter with one of the highest KO percentages amongst world title contenders in the sport (85%). And - given his talent combined with his considerable social media following - Garcia is considered by many far and away the fighter out of the current stable of young American boxing stars (a stable which includes current lightweight world title-holders Gervonta Davis, Teofimo Lopez, and Devin Haney) most likely to follow Oscar De La Hoya and Floyd Mayweather to become the next American boxing superstar.

Consider that, with over 12.5 million followers over the primary social media platforms (Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, TikTok - more followers than even Canelo and 2nd in number of followers only to current unified heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua amongst active boxers in the world), Garcia will likely be the promotional A-side for every fight he's involved in for years to come (at least until he loses). In this sort of spot - especially in the Mexican-American friendly confines of the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, where Garcia will undoubtedly be the overwhelming crowd favorite - the A-side usually gets the nod in close fights that could go either way. Garcia is backed financially by boxing powerhouses Golden Boy Promotions and DAZN to be the next generational superstar in boxing - one would suspect that it would take a clearly superior performance from Campbell to overcome the promotional and hostile crowd biases he'll face outside the ring. 

But the odds on this fight at U.S. sportsbooks are currently as high as 3.5-1 (implying that Campbell wins this matchup between 20-25% of the time), which I think is a bit absurd - even with Ryan's undeniable talent inside the ring and aforementioned intangible advantages (promotional A-side, crowd favorite) on the outside. Campbell is a world-class, proven fighter with experience who will by far be the most difficult test of Garcia's career to date. Campbell does have three losses, though two of those losses (to highly regarded then-WBA lightweight champion Jorge Linares in 2017 and French contender Yvan Mendy back in 2015) were very close, split-decision losses - with the loss to Mendy being avenged by Campbell in 2018 via unanimous decision victory. Campbell's only other loss was in 2019 to then pound-for-pound #1 Vasiliy Lomachenko in a fight where Campbell frustrated Lomachenko and gave him one of the tougher fights of his career even in what was a fairly wide unanimous decision loss. In the loss, Campbell buckled Lomachenko a couple of times, including a left hook to the body in the 7th round that forced Lomachenko to hold to regain his composure.

If Campbell could go 12 rounds and land solid power shots vs. a supremely talented, elusive Lomachenko, there's no reason to think he couldn't be more effective vs. a less experienced Garcia who isn't nearly as defensively sound or slippery as Lomachenko. At 5'10", Garcia is a relatively tall fighter for his weight class who often fights in an upright stance (often leaving both his body and chin exposed). I anticipate Garcia's boxing stance, combined with his relatively flat-footed style, providing ample scoring opportunities for a fighter in Campbell who - with a career KO percentage of 70% - has underrated punching power in his own right. 

Campbell matches up with Garcia better than any fighter Garcia's fought previously in terms of size and reach, and is the more experienced, technically sound boxer. As Campbell showed in his fights with Lomachenko and Linares, he has the footwork and durability to go the distance with even immensely talented, A-level fighters; I feel Campbell will be able to frustrate Garcia early with this footwork and durability and begin to land serious power shots of his own in the middle to late rounds. 

Garcia's lack of experience vs. top-level competition is by far the biggest question mark in this fight. He's fought only 4 rounds in the past two years (all vs. B and C-level opponents); the last time he actually went the distance was a majority 10-round decision victory in 2018 vs. Mexican journeyman Carlos Morales in a fight where Ryan was hurt late in the 7th round and that many thought he lost.  

While I like Garcia's talent and potential - the unknowns of how a still-raw 22-year old kid will perform vs. a legitimate top-level, battle-tested contender who has won Olympic gold and has been competitive vs. pound-for-pound A-level talent makes me feel the current +350 odds (or anything +300 and above for that matter) for Campbell is a price too good to pass up. Again, I do think Garcia probably wins this fight (and likely wins the fight by stoppage given the hand speed and power discrepancy vs. a fighter in Campbell who doesn't have the best chin). But the better value in my mind lies with the much more experienced, battle-tested fighter who also happens to have good power in a matchup vs. a young guy whose chin has never been tested at this level.

Either way, this fight should reveal a lot about where Garcia stands as a title contender and potential future superstar in the sport. Will Garcia shine like a then similarly inexperienced and untested Gervonta Davis did four years ago as a 22-year old when he stopped an undefeated Jose Pedraza for his first world title? Or will Saturday's fight prove Garcia isn't quite ready for the world-class stage yet (or even provide evidence that he'll never be ready)? As recently as last year, Garcia's promoters at Golden Boy were hesitant to put him in vs. top-level competition so tonight's fight should answer a lot of questions!

Prediction: Campbell to win

Recommended bet: Campbell to win (bet to RISK .33 unit)